Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior

Climate and fertility amid a public health crisis

One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19.

Human fertility after a disaster: a systematic literature review

Fertility is a key demographic parameter influenced by disaster. With the growing risk of disasters, interest in the fertility response to a disaster is increasing among the public, policy makers and researchers alike. However, a systematic literature review on how disaster affects live birth counts does not yet exist. We reviewed 50 studies retrieved from a systematic search based on a pre-registered protocol. We found an overall negative impact of disasters on fertility. If any, increases in fertility were mostly linked with weather-related physical disasters. We also identified 13 distinct mechanisms which researchers have considered as underlying the fertility effects of disaster. By contrast to the common belief that disasters are more likely to increase fertility in contexts with already high fertility, we found little evidence to suggest that the total fertility rate of the studied populations was an important predictor of the direction, timing or size of fertility impacts. While this may be because no relationship exists, it may also be due to biases we observed in the literature towards studying high-income countries or high-cost disasters. We summarize the methodological limitations identified from the reviewed studies into six practical recommendations for future research. Our findings inform both the theories behind the fertility effects of disasters and the methods for studying them.

Scars from a Previous Epidemic: Social Proximity to Zika and Fertility Intentions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

We examine whether women's social proximity to Zika during the Zika epidemic predicts intentions to avoid a pregnancy because of the COVID-19 pandemic either directly or indirectly via subjective assessments of the pandemic. We apply path models on unique microdata from Brazil, the country most affected by Zika and an epicenter of COVID-19, to understand whether a novel infectious disease outbreak left lasting imprints shaping fertility intentions during a subsequent novel infectious disease outbreak. Findings show that Zika social proximity is associated with fertility intentions through an indirect path related to subjective assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings emerged regardless of whether a woman herself had or suspected she had Zika and speak to the transformative consequences of novel infectious disease outbreaks that go beyond mortality and health.

The Zika virus: an opportunity to revisit reproductive health needs and disparities

First isolated in 1947, the Zika virus was initially connected only to limited or sporadic human infections. In late 2015, the temporal clustering of a Zika outbreak and microcephaly in newborn babies from northeastern Brazil, and the identification of a causal link between the two, led to the characterization of the congenital Zika syndrome. In the wake of the epidemic, several countries from Latin America advised women to postpone pregnancies for periods ranging from six months to two years. These recommendations initiated critical conversations about the challenges of implementing them in societies with limited access to contraception, widespread socioeconomic inequalities, and high rates of unplanned and adolescent pregnancies. The messaging targeted exclusively women, despite a high prevalence of imbalances in the relationship power, and addressed all women as a group, failing to recognize that the decision to postpone pregnancies will impact different women in different ways, depending on their age at the time. Finally, in several countries affected by the Zika epidemic, due to restrictive reproductive policies, legally terminating a pregnancy is no longer an option even at the earliest time when brain malformations as part of the congenital Zika syndrome can be detected by ultrasonography. The virus continued to circulate after 2016 in several countries. Climate change models predict an expansion of the geographical area where local Zika transmission may occur, indicating that the interface between the virus, teratogenesis, and reproductive rights is a topic of considerable interest for medicine, social sciences, and public health for years to come.

The Unequal Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Infant Health

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a large toll on population health and well-being. We examine the consequences of prenatal exposure for infant health, through which the pandemic may have lasting intergenerational effects. We examine multiple pathways by which the pandemic shaped birth outcomes and socioeconomic disparities in these consequences. Analysis of more than 3.5 million birth records in California with universal information on COVID infection among persons giving birth at the time of delivery reveals deep inequalities in infection by education, race/ethnicity, and place-based socioeconomic disadvantage. COVID infection during pregnancy, in turn, predicts a large increase in the probability of preterm birth, by approximately one third. At the population level, a surprising reduction in preterm births during the first months of the pandemic was followed by an increase in preterm births during the surge in COVID infections in the winter of 2021. Whereas the early-pandemic reduction in preterm births benefited primarily highly educated mothers, the increase in preterm births during the winter infection surge was entirely concentrated among mothers with low levels of schooling. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to exacerbate U.S. inequality in multiple ways. Our findings highlight a particularly enduring pathway: the long-term legacy of prenatal exposure to an unequal pandemic environment.

Contraceptive choice as risk reduction? The relevance of local violence for women's uptake of sterilization in Colombia

Altered childbearing behaviour has been observed in many settings of violent conflict, but few studies have addressed fertility control. This is the first study to investigate empirically the relationship between local conflict and uptake of sterilization, the only contraceptive method that reflects a definitive stop to childbearing. The study is based on Colombia, a middle-income, low-fertility, and long-term conflict setting. It builds on a mixed methods approach, combining survey and conflict data with expert interviews. Fixed effects regressions show that local conflict is generally associated with an increased sterilization uptake. The interviews suggest that women may opt for sterilization when reversible methods become less accessible because of ongoing violence. Since sterilization is a relatively available contraceptive option in Colombia, it may represent a risk-aversion strategy for women who have completed their fertility goals. These findings can enlighten research and programmes on fertility and family planning in humanitarian contexts.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53-14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.