The Potential Public Health Impact of Herpes Zoster Vaccination of People Aged ≥ 50 Years in Japan: Results of a Markov Model Analysis

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Singapore: a modeling study

In Singapore, population aging and rising life expectancy are increasing herpes zoster (HZ) burden, which may be reduced by vaccination. The present study modeled the public health impact of HZ vaccination in Singapore using ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model adapted with Singapore-specific key model inputs, where available. Base case analysis was conducted in adults ≥ 50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination, recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV], zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under mass vaccination setting (30% coverage). Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Out of 1.51 million adults in 2021 (base case population), 406,513 (27.0%) cases of HZ, 68,264 (4.5%) cases of post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), and 54,949 (3.6%) cases of other complications were projected without vaccination. RZV was estimated to avoid 73,129 cases of HZ, 11,094 cases of PHN, and 9,205 cases of other complications over the subjects' remaining lifetime; ZVL would avoid 17,565 cases of HZ, 2,781 cases of PHN, and 1,834 cases of other complications. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of HZ/PHN was lower for RZV (7/41) than ZVL (26/163). Among all five age-stratified cohorts (50-59/60-64/65-69/70-79/≥80 YOA), RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) avoided the largest number of cases in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. Mass vaccination with RZV is expected to greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ among Singapore individuals ≥ 50 YOA. Findings support value assessment and decision-making regarding public health vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Singapore.

Updated Public Health Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Canadian Adults Aged 50 Years and Older

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to update previously estimated public health impact and cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for the prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in Canadians aged ≥50 years using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning data and real-world coverage and completion.

METHODS

A multicohort Markov model was used to conduct a cost-utility analysis comparing RZV with no HZ vaccination among Canadians aged ≥50 years. Real-world data were used for first-dose coverage (17.5%) and second-dose completion (65%). Vaccine efficacy and waning data were applied from up to 8-year follow-up from the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 clinical trials. Incremental costs and benefits were calculated using a lifetime horizon from the healthcare payer (base case) and societal perspectives. A discount rate of 1.5% was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

The model estimated that RZV would prevent 303,835 HZ cases, 83,256 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, 39,653 other complications, and 99 HZ-related deaths compared with no HZ vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated to be $27,486 and $22,097 per QALY (2022 Canadian dollars [CAN$]) from the healthcare payer and societal perspectives, respectively. The base-case ICER was most sensitive to a lower percentage of initial HZ cases with PHN. Almost all probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations (98.1%) resulted in ICERs

CONCLUSIONS

RZV is expected to remain a cost-effective option for Canadian adults aged ≥50 years when using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning estimates, although the estimated public health impact was smaller than in the previous analysis (due to lower coverage/completion estimates).

Collapse

Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals

Collapse

Affiliation(s)

Sydney George GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada.
Justin Carrico RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Katherine A Hicks RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Dessi Loukov GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada
Cheryl Ng GSK, Singapore, Singapore
Jessica Regan GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada
Nikolaos Giannelos GSK, Wavre, Belgium

Collapse

Modelling the Public Health Burden of Herpes Zoster and the Impact of Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Five Selected Countries in Southeast Asia

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ) can cause substantial patient morbidity and lead to large healthcare costs. However, the disease burden of HZ in Southeast Asia may be underestimated. This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of HZ and the impact of vaccinating adults aged ≥ 50 years old in five Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), with adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination.

METHODS

For each country, we adapted a static multicohort Markov model developed with a 1-year cycle length and lifetime horizon. Demographics were obtained from the World Health Organization, HZ incidence from a worldwide meta-regression reporting Asian-specific values, proportions of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and non-PHN complications from local/regional studies, and vaccine efficacy from a long-term follow-up trial. First-dose coverage and second-dose compliance were assumed to be 30% and 70%, respectively. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (OWSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness and uncertainty of inputs for each country.

RESULTS

Without RZV, it was estimated that there would be a total of approximately 10 million HZ cases, 2.1 million PHN cases, and 1.4 million non-PHN complications in individuals aged ≥ 50 years included in the model. Introducing RZV under 30% coverage could avoid approximately 2.2 million (22%) HZ cases, almost 500,000 (21%) PHN cases, and around 300,000 (22%) non-PHN complications. OWSA showed that first-dose coverage and initial HZ incidence had the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided. The number needed to vaccinate ranged from 15 to 21 to prevent one case of HZ and from 68 to 104 to prevent one case of PHN across each country.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that there is substantial HZ disease burden in older adults for the five selected countries in Southeast Asia, negatively impacting national healthcare systems. Introducing RZV could potentially reduce this burden. A graphical abstract is available with this article.

How large could the public health impact of introducing recombinant zoster vaccination for people aged ≥50 years in five Latin American countries be?

This study aimed to: (1) estimate the disease burden of herpes zoster (HZ) and (2) assess the potential public health impact of introducing adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination in adults aged ≥50 years in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia using the ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) static multicohort Markov model. The model followed individuals aged ≥50 years from administration of RZV over their remaining lifetime. Inputs were based, most often, on local data. First dose coverage was assumed to be 35%, with 75% second dose compliance. It was predicted that without RZV, there would be 23,558,675 HZ cases, 6,115,981 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, and 7,058,779 non-PHN complications in the five countries, but introducing RZV under assumed coverage could avoid 4,583,787 (19%) HZ cases, 1,130,751 (18%) PHN cases, and 1,373,419 (19%) non-PHN complications. Also, 10427,504 (20%) doctor's office visits and 1,630,201 (19%) days of hospitalization could be averted in the three countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) with available input data. The numbers needed to be vaccinated to avoid one case of HZ were 9-10 across countries, and to avoid one case of PHN, 35-40. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the input parameters with the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided were first dose coverage, initial HZ incidence, and vaccine efficacy waning. In conclusion, the introduction of RZV for older adults in Latin America could greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ and reduce the related doctor visits and hospitalization days.

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Hong Kong

The growing burden of herpes zoster (HZ) in Hong Kong, due to an aging population with increasing life expectancy, may be reduced by vaccination. This study aimed to estimate public health impact of HZ vaccination in Hong Kong. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model was adapted with Hong Kong-specific key model inputs/assumptions, where available. Base case analysis involved adults ≥50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination/recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV]/zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under private market (5% coverage) and mass vaccination (40% coverage) settings. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base case population (3.13 million), without vaccination, 891,024 HZ (28.4%), 156,097 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) (5.0%), and 38,755 (1.2%) HZ ophthalmicus (HZO) were projected over their remaining lifetime. Mass RZV vaccination reduced HZ, PHN, and HZO cases by 204,875 (-23.0%), 31,949 (-20.5%), and 8,471 (-21.9%), respectively, which was 4-5 times that reduced with ZVL. RZV was more efficient than ZVL, with lower number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ/PHN/HZO case (RZV: 7/40/148; ZVL: 27/163/709). Among all age cohorts, the greatest reduction in cases was projected for RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. HZ burden in Hong Kong is substantial. Mass RZV vaccination is expected to considerably reduce public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, compared with no vaccination/ZVL. Results may support value assessment and decision-making regarding vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Hong Kong.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Update of the Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Japanese Older Adults

Introduction

This study aimed to update cost-effectiveness and public health impact estimates of the two-dose recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination against herpes zoster (HZ) in the Japanese population aged 65 years. List price of the vaccine and latest RZV efficacy and waning estimates were incorporated.

Methods

A multicohort static Markov model with a cycle length of 1 year was used to follow a hypothetical cohort of one million people aged 65 years over their remaining lifetime (base case). Age-stratified vaccine efficacy and waning rates were updated on the basis of the latest clinical trial data (interim ZOE-LTFU; NCT02723773). First-dose coverage was assumed at 40%, and second-dose compliance was assumed at 95%. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 2% annually, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated from payer and societal perspectives. The societal perspective considered productivity loss due to suffering HZ, or due to suffering HZ and time required for vaccination. Sensitivity analyses explored the overall uncertainties in the model. Scenario analyses for Japanese adults aged 50, 60, 70, 80, ≥ 50, and ≥ 65 years (main scenario) were conducted. An ICER below ¥5–6 million/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was considered cost-effective.

Results

RZV was estimated to prevent 71,423 HZ cases and 15,858 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases per million people aged 65 years compared with no vaccine in Japan. The ICER was ¥4,205,515 from a payer perspective and was most sensitive to assumptions regarding vaccine efficacy waning, proportion of patients with HZ developing PHN, and HZ incidence. From societal perspectives, ICERs were ¥3,854,192 (productivity loss from suffering HZ only) and ¥4,622,212 (productivity loss from suffering HZ and time required for vaccination). Overall, the results were considered robust under extensive sensitivity and scenario analyses.

Conclusion

Vaccination against HZ with RZV is cost-effective compared with no vaccination in Japanese adults aged 65 years.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13555-022-00744-8.

The Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV) against herpes zoster: a systematic review with meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) quantifies the effectiveness of vaccination programs. We summarised the published data on NNV against herpes zoster to inform vaccination policies.

METHODS

We systematically identified studies based on a priori established and registered methods. The main outcomes were the NNV against herpes zoster infection, hospitalisation and mortality. Where appropriate, we conducted meta-analyses using inverse variance, random-effects models, pooling estimated NNV with associated 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical heterogeneity between pooled estimates was calculated using the I² statistic.

RESULTS

Out of 229 unique citations, we included eight nonrandomized studies. Among 50+ year-olds, the NNV against herpes zoster infection using the recombinant subunit vaccine was 11 (95%CI 8-14; I² = 0%; 3 studies) and variable (I² = 94.4%; 7 studies) using live attenuated vaccine, ranging from 10 (95%CI 1-19) to 58 (95%CI 49-67). Among 65+ year-olds, the NNV against herpes zoster infection using the recombinant subunit vaccine was 12 (95%CI: 9-15; I² = 0%; 2 studies) and variable (I² = 98.5%; 4 studies) using live attenuated vaccine, ranging from 14 (95%CI 5-23) to 75 (95%CI 66-84). The NNV against herpes zoster hospitalisation among 65+ year-olds using the live attenuated vaccine was 280 (95%CI 209-352; I² = 0%; 2 studies). There was a paucity of data to inform other meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

Evidence on the NNV against herpes zoster is scarce. Vaccination with the recombinant subunit herpes zoster vaccine may be more effective than with the live attenuated vaccine in preventing infection among 50+ year-olds. More studies are needed for a stronger evidence base for decision-making.

Potential public health impact of the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine among people aged 50 years and older in Beijing

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a painful, unilateral rash which occurs upon reactivation of latent varicella zoster virus due to age-related immunity decline or immuno-suppression. In 2019, the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) was the first vaccine to be approved in China for HZ prevention. This study aimed to estimate the potential public health impact of RZV vaccination, compared with the status quo of no vaccination, in individuals ≥50 years of age (YOA) in Beijing, by adapting the published ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model. We considered 5% and 50% vaccination coverage for the private market (near-term post-launch) and mass vaccination (long-term) settings respectively. In the base-case analysis of both market settings, second-dose compliance was set to 80%. Coverage and second-dose compliance rates were varied under scenario and sensitivity analyses. In the base case, mass vaccination with RZV was estimated to prevent 435,681 HZ cases, 51,558 postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, and 15,703 cases of other HZ-related complications in the overall ≥50 YOA cohort over their remaining lifetime, compared with no vaccination. Under the same base-case scenario, 14,247 hospitalizations and 1,031,387 outpatient visits could be avoided. The 50-59 YOA cohort had the highest contributions to the overall reduction in HZ cases, its complications and related healthcare resource utilization. Results were robust under numerous scenario and sensitivity analyses. This analysis demonstrates the potential of RZV vaccination to substantially reduce the public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, and may inform appropriate vaccination strategies for HZ prevention, particularly in urban settings within China.

Efficacy and safety of pulsed radiofrequency modulation of thoracic dorsal root ganglion or intercostal nerve on postherpetic neuralgia in aged patients: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is common in elderly patients and can be alleviated by pulsed radiofrequency (PRF). However, PRF treatments display different efficacy on different nerves. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ultrasound-guided PRF modulation on thoracic dorsal root ganglion (DRG) or intercostal nerve (ICN) for PHN in aged patients and to provide a theoretical basis for clinical treatment.

METHODS

We classified aged patients into two groups, DRG group and ICN group, based on the needle tip position. Visual analogue scale (VAS) and concise health status questionnaire (Short-form 36 health/survey questionnaire, SF-36) were used to evaluate the pain intensity and the life quality of the patients before and 2, 4 and 12 weeks after the PRF treatments. We also recorded the adverse reactions during the treatments.

RESULTS

After the PRF treatment, the scores of VAS and SF-36 (assessing general health perception, social function, emotional role, mental health, and pain) improved significantly in both groups (P < 0.05). The mean VAS score in the DRG group was significantly lower than that in the ICN group 2 weeks after treatment, and remained for 12 weeks. The SF-36 scores in the DRG group were significantly higher than those in the ICN group (P < 0.05). We found a similar incidence of adverse reactions between the two groups (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

PRF therapy is safe and effective for elderly patients with postherpetic neuralgia. However, PRF treatment in dorsal root ganglion is superior to that in intercostal nerve with improving VAS and SF-36 scores to a greater extent in older patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ChiCTR2100044176 .

Risk of herpes zoster in the Japanese population with immunocompromising and chronic disease conditions: Results from a claims database cohort study, from 2005 to 2014

Older adults, women and patients with immunocompromised (IC) or chronic medical conditions have a higher incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) and are at higher risk of developing HZ-associated complications such as postherpetic neuralgia. The incidence rates of HZ in various IC and chronic conditions have been previously reported in a retrospective cohort study using claims data from Japanese adults. Here, we report further analyses from this cohort using univariate and multivariable Cox regression to estimate crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) associated with different IC and chronic conditions. After adjusting for multiple covariates (age, sex and other coexisting medical conditions), the risk of HZ was higher in women (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.11-1.17]), irrespective of age and increased with increasing age, being substantially higher in patients aged 65 years or older (HR, 3.28 [95% CI, 3.07-3.49]) when compared with those aged 18-29 years. The highest HRs were observed for the following specific IC conditions; hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients (HR, 9.85 [95% CI, 6.80-14.28]), hematological malignancy (HR, 3.22 [95% CI, 2.54-4.09]), systemic lupus erythematosus (HR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.45-4.15]) and inflammatory bowel disease (HR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.14-2.21]). For most other IC and chronic medical conditions, a higher risk was also apparent though of a smaller magnitude (HRs ranging from 1.2 to <1.5). These results corroborate our previous findings and demonstrate an increased risk of HZ associated with different IC and chronic conditions.

The potential public health impact of Herpes Zoster vaccination in the 65 years of age cohort in Italy

Herpes Zoster (HZ) presents a considerable public health burden in Italy among people aged ≥50 years. This study aimed to assess the clinical and economic impact of HZ vaccination in the 65 years of age (YOA) cohort in Italy, by comparing the new Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV) with the currently available Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL). A static Markov model was developed to follow all 65 YOA subjects from the year of vaccination over their lifetime by comparing three different HZ vaccination strategies: no vaccination, vaccination with ZVL and vaccination with RZV. In the base-case scenario, three 65 YOA cohorts were assumed to be vaccinated within three years, with a vaccine coverage rate of 20%, 35% and 50% at Year 1, 2 and 3 respectively, as recommended by the National Immunization Plan. The three 65 YOA Italian cohorts accounted altogether for 2,290,340 individuals. Of these, it was assumed that 564,178 subjects could be vaccinated with either RZV or ZVL in three years. The vaccination with RZV could prevent an additional total number of 35,834 HZ and 8,131 postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases over ZVL, leading to additional total savings of €12.4 million for the national healthcare and social systems. The introduction of RZV can be expected to have higher impact on the burden of HZ disease in the 65 YOA cohort in Italy. The avoided HZ and PHN cases can lead to an associated reduction in economic burden to the healthcare and social systems.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Adjuvant Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Japanese Adults Aged 65 Years and Older

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) rises steeply after the age of 50 years and the number of HZ cases and complications such as postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is predicted to increase because of the ageing population. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccine for the Japanese population aged ≥ 65 years.

METHODS

A multi-cohort static Markov model with a cycle length of 1 year was used to follow a hypothetical cohort of 1 million people aged ≥ 65 years over their remaining lifetime. Vaccination at ≥ 65 years was used in alignment with the influenza and pneumococcal vaccines recommended from 65 years. Japan-specific data inputs for the model were obtained from local data sources. Age-stratified vaccine efficacy and waning rates were based on published clinical trial data. In the base-case analysis, vaccine coverage was assumed to be 40% with a second dose compliance of 95%. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 2% annually and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated from both a payer's and the societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore the overall uncertainty in the model.

RESULTS

Vaccination with RZV was projected to prevent 48,943 HZ cases and 12,136 PHN cases per million people aged ≥ 65 years compared with no vaccination. The incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained were ¥9.99 billion and 2314 QALYs from a payer's perspective and ¥9.34 billion and 2314 QALYs from a societal perspective. The resulting ICERs were approximately ¥4,320,000 and ¥4,040,000 per QALY gained from a payer's and the societal perspective, respectively. The ICER remained below a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5,000,000 for most sensitivity analyses carried out.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination against HZ with RZV would be cost-effective compared with no vaccination for the Japanese population aged ≥ 65 years.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

GSK study identifier: HO-16-17837.

FUNDING

GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA.

Community-acquired acute meningitis and encephalitis: a narrative review

Meningitis and encephalitis are medical emergencies. Patients need prompt evaluation and immediate empiric therapy to reduce the likelihood of fatal outcomes and chronic neurological sequelae. Conjugate bacterial vaccines have significantly reduced the incidence of bacterial meningitis, especially in children. As the results of changes in patterns of bacterial drug sensitivity, ceftriaxone is now part of the recommended empiric treatment for bacterial meningitis and should be administered as early as possible. Neuroimaging delays the treatment of meningitis and is not needed in most cases. Adjunctive corticosteroid therapy is of benefit for many patients with meningitis and should be initiated in most adults before antibiotic therapy. Molecular testing can assist the specific diagnosis of encephalitis and should be based on the exposure history and geographic risk factors relevant to the patient, but non-infectious causes of encephalitis are also common. Empiric therapy for encephalitis should be directed at the most frequently identified infectious pathogen, herpes simplex virus type 1 (ie, intravenous aciclovir). Vaccines can protect against the major pathogens of childhood infections (measles, mumps, rubella, polio, varicella viruses), influenza viruses, and exotic pathogens that cause meningitis and encephalitis (rabies, Japanese encephalitis, dengue, yellow fever, tick-borne encephalitis viruses, Mycobacterium tuberculosis).

A novel nonlive, adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine: a report on the emerging clinical data and safety profile

Herpes zoster (HZ) is an acute vesicular dermatitis with a typical dermatomal distribution, caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), often preceded and accompanied by prodromal pain or pruritus. HZ may be related to several complications such as postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). The incidence and severity of the disease increase with aging, due to immunosenescence and in particular to the decline of the specific cell-mediated immunity (CMI). The impact of HZ in terms of morbidity and short- and long-term complications, the availability of suboptimal treatment options to date, and the high costs for the diagnostic and clinical-therapeutic management of patients have motivated the search for a new preventive approach through the development of a vaccine. The vaccine currently in use with live-attenuated virus (ZVL) has been shown to be effective in reducing the incidence of HZ, its impact, and the onset of PHN, although the efficacy is lower in older subjects and tends to decrease some years after immunization. A new adjuvanted recombinant subunit vaccine (HZ/su), containing the VZV glycoprotein E (gE) and the AS01B adjuvant system, is now a very promising alternative to ZVL; in several clinical studies, it showed a good safety profile and was able to elicit high immune humoral and cell-mediated responses, both maintained up to 9 years. Furthermore, HZ/su vaccine was effective both in preventing HZ and in reducing the onset of PHN and other complications. HZ/su has been recommended and preferred over ZVL by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for the prevention of HZ and its complications in immunocompetent adults aged ≥50 years, even if already vaccinated with ZVL, through a two-dose schedule. HZ/su has been approved in Canada, USA, Europe, and Japan and is currently being approved in Australia. The aim of this review was to describe the epidemiological data, HZ and PHN risks and their impact on the social life and common life of infected people, and ZVL and HZ/su vaccine development including various clinical trials and efficacy, safety, and tolerability profiles.