HTA agencies facing model biases: the case of type 2 diabetes

Assessing real-world effectiveness of therapies: what is the impact of incretin-based treatments on hospital use for patients with type 2 diabetes?

BACKGROUND

Managing type 2 diabetes represents a major public health concern due to its important and increasing prevalence. Our study investigates the impact of taking incretin-based medication on the risk of being hospitalized and the length of hospital stay for individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHOD

We use claim panel data from 2011 to 2015 and provide difference-in-differences (DID) estimations combined with matching techniques to better ensure the treatment and control groups' comparability. Our propensity score selects individuals according to their probability of taking an incretin-based treatment in 2013 (N = 2,116). The treatment group includes individuals benefiting from incretin-based treatments from 2013 to 2015 and is compared to individuals not benefiting from such a treatment but having a similar probability of taking it.

RESULTS

After controlling for health-related and socio-economic variables, we show that benefiting from an incretin-based treatment does not significantly impact the probability of being hospitalized but does significantly decrease the annual number of days spent in the hospital by a factor rate of 0.621 compared with the length of hospital stays for patients not benefiting from such a treatment.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the potential implications for our health care system in case of widespread use of these drugs among patients with severe diabetes.

Uptake of new antidiabetic medicines in 11 European countries

BACKGROUND

Several new antidiabetic medicines (GLP-1 receptor agonists, DPP-4 inhibitors, and SGLT-2 inhibitors) have been approved by the European Medicines Agency since 2006. The aim of this study was to evaluate the uptake of new antidiabetic medicines in European countries over a 10-year period.

METHODS

The study used IQVIA quarterly value and volume sales data January 2006-December 2016. The market uptake of new antidiabetic medicines together with intensity of prescribing policy for all antidiabetic medicines were estimated for Austria, Croatia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The following measures were determined: number of available new active substances, median time to first continuous use, volume market share, and annual therapy cost.

RESULTS

All countries had at least one new antidiabetic medicine in continuous use and an increase in intensity of prescribing policy for all antidiabetic medicines was observed. A tenfold difference in median time to first continuous use (3-30 months) was found. The annual therapy cost in 2016 of new antidiabetic medicines ranged from EUR 363 to EUR 769. Among new antidiabetic medicines, the market share of DPP-4 inhibitors was the highest. Countries with a higher volume market share of incretin-based medicines (Spain, France, Austria, and Germany) in 2011 had a lower increase in intensity of prescribing policy. This kind of correlation was not found in the case of SGLT-2 inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found important differences and variability in the uptake of new antidiabetic medicines in the included countries.

Exploring Uncertainty in Economic Evaluations of Drugs and Medical Devices: Lessons from the First Review of Manufacturers' Submissions to the French National Authority for Health

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this paper was to evaluate how uncertainty has been accounted for in the cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) submitted by manufacturers to the French National Authority for Health (HAS) and to identify recurring concerns in these submissions.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional design to evaluate manufacturers' submissions from the beginning of the evaluation process in October 2013 to the end of May 2015 (n = 28). The sources of uncertainty attached to these CEAs were categorized and assessed. Relevant data were extracted independently by two assessors.

RESULTS

Adherence to the HAS reference case was generally considered to be acceptable. Methodological uncertainty and parameter uncertainty were the sources of uncertainty that were most frequently explored by manufacturers. The quality of reporting of deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis varied substantially across submissions, with a frequent lack of justification of the plausible range of parameter point estimates in 12 submissions (43 %). Structural uncertainty was explored much less frequently. Concerns related to omission of either important clinical events or relevant health states or extrapolation of the effects of the technology beyond the time horizon of the clinical trials were identified in 16 submissions (57 %).

CONCLUSIONS

This study presented a characterization of the treatment of uncertainty for the first 28 manufacturers' submissions to the HAS. This work identified important concerns regarding the exploration of sources of uncertainty. The findings may help manufacturers to improve the quality of their submissions and may provide useful insights for extending guidelines on uncertainty analysis in CEAs submitted to the HAS.

Evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of liraglutide therapy for patients with type 2 diabetes in France

OBJECTIVES

The present study aimed to compare the projected long-term clinical and cost implications associated with liraglutide, sitagliptin and glimepiride in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus failing to achieve glycemic control on metformin monotherapy in France.

METHODS

Clinical input data for the modeling analysis were taken from two randomized, controlled trials (LIRA-DPP4 and LEAD-2). Long-term (patient lifetime) projections of clinical outcomes and direct costs (2013 Euros; €) were made using a validated computer simulation model of type 2 diabetes. Costs were taken from published France-specific sources. Future costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Liraglutide was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.25 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an increase in mean direct healthcare costs of €2558 per patient compared with sitagliptin. In the comparison with glimepiride, liraglutide was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.23 QALYs and an increase in direct costs of €4695. Based on these estimates, liraglutide was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €10,275 per QALY gained vs sitagliptin and €20,709 per QALY gained vs glimepiride in France.

CONCLUSION

Calculated ICERs for both comparisons fell below the commonly quoted willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000 per QALY gained. Therefore, liraglutide is likely to be cost-effective vs sitagliptin and glimepiride from a healthcare payer perspective in France.