Concepts of 'personalization' in personalized medicine: implications for economic evaluation

Heterogeneity within the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: An application of causal forests

Existing evidence regarding the effects of Medicaid expansion, largely focused on aggregate effects, suggests health insurance impacts some health, healthcare utilization, and financial hardship outcomes. In this study we apply causal forest and instrumental forest methods to data from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment (OHIE), to explore heterogeneity in the uptake of health insurance, and in the effects of (a) lottery selection and (b) health insurance on a range of health-related outcomes. The findings of this study suggest that the impact of winning the lottery on the health insurance uptake varies among different subgroups based on age and race. In addition, the results generally coincide with findings in the literature regarding the overall effects: lottery selection (and insurance) reduces out-of-pocket spending, increases physician visits and drug prescriptions, with little (short-term) impact on the number of emergency department visits and hospital admissions. Despite this, we detect quite weak evidence of heterogeneity in the effects of the lottery and of health insurance across the outcomes considered.

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages.

METHODS

First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment.

RESULTS

In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

The ethical challenges of personalized digital health

Personalized digital health systems (pHealth) bring together in sharp juxtaposition very different yet hopefully complementary moral principles in the shared objectives of optimizing health care and the health status of individual citizens while maximizing the application of robust clinical evidence through harnessing powerful and often complex modern data-handling technologies. Principles brought together include respecting the confidentiality of the patient-clinician relationship, the need for controlled information sharing in teamwork and shared care, benefitting from healthcare knowledge obtained from real-world population-level outcomes, and the recognition of different cultures and care settings. This paper outlines the clinical process as enhanced through digital health, reports on the examination of the new issues raised by the computerization of health data, outlines initiatives and policies to balance the harnessing of innovation with control of adverse effects, and emphasizes the importance of the context of use and citizen and user acceptance. The importance of addressing ethical issues throughout the life cycle of design, provision, and use of a pHealth system is explained, and a variety of situation-relevant frameworks are presented to enable a philosophy of responsible innovation, matching the best use of enabling technology with the creation of a culture and context of trustworthiness.

Optimizing outcomes in heart failure: 2022 and beyond

Although the development of therapies and tools for the improved management of heart failure (HF) continues apace, day-to-day management in clinical practice is often far from ideal. A Cardiovascular Round Table workshop was convened by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) to identify barriers to the optimal implementation of therapies and guidelines and to consider mitigation strategies to improve patient outcomes in the future. Key challenges identified included the complexity of HF itself and its treatment, financial constraints and the perception of HF treatments as costly, failure to meet the needs of patients, suboptimal outpatient management, and the fragmented nature of healthcare systems. It was discussed that ongoing initiatives may help to address some of these barriers, such as changes incorporated into the 2021 ESC HF guideline, ESC Heart Failure Association quality indicators, quality improvement registries (e.g. EuroHeart), new ESC guidelines for patients, and the universal definition of HF. Additional priority action points discussed to promote further improvements included revised definitions of HF 'phenotypes' based on trial data, the development of implementation strategies, improved affordability, greater regulator/payer involvement, increased patient education, further development of patient-reported outcomes, better incorporation of guidelines into primary care systems, and targeted education for primary care practitioners. Finally, it was concluded that overarching changes are needed to improve current HF care models, such as the development of a standardized pathway, with a common adaptable digital backbone, decision-making support, and data integration, to ensure that the model 'learns' as the management of HF continues to evolve.

Economics and Precision Medicine

Introducing precision medicine strategies into routine practice will require robust economic evidence. Decision-makers need to understand the value of a precision medicine strategy compared with alternative ways to treat patients. This chapter describes health economic analysis techniques that are needed to generate this evidence. The value of any precision medicine strategy can be demonstrated early to inform evidence generation and improve the likelihood of translation into routine practice. Advances in health economic analysis techniques are also explained and their relevance to precision medicine is highlighted. Ensuring that constraints on delivery are resolved to increase uptake and implementation will improve the value of a new precision medicine strategy. Empirical methods to quantify stakeholders' preferences can be effective to inform the design of a precision medicine intervention or service delivery model. A range of techniques to generate relevant economic evidence are now available to support the development and translation of precision medicine into routine practice. This economic evidence is essential to inform resource allocation decisions and will enable patients to benefit from cost-effective precision medicine strategies in the future.

Decision-analytic modeling for early health technology assessment of medical devices - a scoping review

Objective

The goal of this review was to identify decision-analytic modeling studies in early health technology assessments (HTA) of high-risk medical devices, published over the last three years, and to provide a systematic overview of model purposes and characteristics. Additionally, the aim was to describe recent developments in modeling techniques.

Methods

For this scoping review, we performed a systematic literature search in PubMed and Embase including studies published in English or German. The search code consisted of terms describing early health technology assessment and terms for decision-analytic models. In abstract and full-text screening, studies were excluded that were not modeling studies for a high-risk medical device or an in-vitro diagnostic test. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram was used to report on the search and exclusion of studies. For all included studies, study purpose, framework and model characteristics were extracted and reported in systematic evidence tables and a narrative summary.

Results

Out of 206 identified studies, 19 studies were included in the review. Studies were either conducted for hypothetical devices or for existing devices after they were already available on the market. No study extrapolated technical data from early development stages to estimate potential value of devices in development. All studies except one included cost as an outcome. Two studies were budget impact analyses. Most studies aimed at adoption and reimbursement decisions. The majority of studies were on in-vitro diagnostic tests for personalized and targeted medicine. A timed automata model, to our knowledge a model type new to HTA, was tested by one study. It describes the agents in a clinical pathway in separate models and, by allowing for interaction between the models, can reflect complex individual clinical pathways and dynamic system interactions. Not all sources of uncertainty for in-vitro tests were explicitly modeled. Elicitation of expert knowledge and judgement was used for substitution of missing empirical data. Analysis of uncertainty was the most valuable strength of decision-analytic models in early HTA, but no model applied sensitivity analysis to optimize the test positivity cutoff with regard to the benefit-harm balance or cost-effectiveness. Value-of-information analysis was rarely performed. No information was found on the use of causal inference methods for estimation of effect parameters from observational data.

Conclusion

Our review provides an overview of the purposes and model characteristics of nineteen recent early evaluation studies on medical devices. The review shows the growing importance of personalized interventions and confirms previously published recommendations for careful modeling of uncertainties surrounding diagnostic devices and for increased use of value-of-information analysis. Timed automata may be a model type worth exploring further in HTA. In addition, we recommend to extend the application of sensitivity analysis to optimize positivity criteria for in-vitro tests with regard to benefit-harm or cost-effectiveness. We emphasize the importance of causal inference methods when estimating effect parameters from observational data.

A perspective on life-cycle health technology assessment and real-world evidence for precision oncology in Canada

Health technology assessment (HTA) can be used to make healthcare systems more equitable and efficient. Advances in precision oncology are challenging conventional thinking about HTA. Precision oncology advances are rapid, involve small patient groups, and are frequently evaluated without a randomized comparison group. In light of these challenges, mechanisms to manage precision oncology uncertainties are critical. We propose a life-cycle HTA framework and outline supporting criteria to manage uncertainties based on real world data collected from learning healthcare systems. If appropriately designed, we argue that life-cycle HTA is the driver of real world evidence generation and furthers our understanding of comparative effectiveness and value. We conclude that life-cycle HTA deliberation processes must be embedded into healthcare systems for an agile response to the constantly changing landscape of precision oncology innovation. We encourage further research outlining the core requirements, infrastructure, and checklists needed to achieve the goal of learning healthcare supporting life-cycle HTA.

Tools for the Economic Evaluation of Precision Medicine: A Scoping Review of Frameworks for Valuing Heterogeneity-Informed Decisions

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Precision medicine highlights the importance of exploring heterogeneity in the effectiveness and costs of interventions. Our objective was to identify and compare frameworks for valuing heterogeneity-informed decisions, and consider their strengths and weaknesses for application to precision medicine.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review to identify papers that proposed an analytical framework to place a value, in terms of costs and health benefits, on using heterogeneity to inform treatment selection. The search included English-language papers indexed in MEDLINE, Embase or EconLit, and a manual review of references and citations. We compared the frameworks qualitatively considering: the purpose and setting of the analysis; the types of precision medicine interventions where the framework could be applied; and the framework's ability to address the methodological challenges of evaluating precision medicine.

RESULTS

Four analytical frameworks were identified: value of stratification, value of heterogeneity, expected value of individualised care and loss with respect to efficient diffusion. Each framework is suited to slightly different settings and research questions. All focus on maximising net benefit, and quantify the opportunity cost of ignoring heterogeneity by comparing individualised or stratified decisions to a means-based population-wide decision. Where the frameworks differ is in their approaches to uncertainty, and in the additional metrics they consider.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying and utilising heterogeneity is at the core of precision medicine, and the ability to quantify the value of heterogeneity-informed decisions is critical. Using an analytical framework to value heterogeneity will help provide evidence to inform investment in precision medicine interventions, appropriately capturing the value of targeted health interventions.

Defining a Core Data Set for the Economic Evaluation of Precision Oncology

OBJECTIVES

Precision oncology is generating vast amounts of multiomic data to improve human health and accelerate research. Existing clinical study designs and attendant data are unable to provide comparative evidence for economic evaluations. This lack of evidence can cause inconsistent and inappropriate reimbursement. Our study defines a core data set to facilitate economic evaluations of precision oncology.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review of economic evaluations of next-generation sequencing technologies, a common application of precision oncology, published between 2005 and 2018 and indexed in PubMed (MEDLINE). Based on this review, we developed a preliminary core data set for informal expert feedback. We then used a modified-Delphi approach with individuals involved in implementation and evaluation of precision medicine, including 2 survey rounds followed by a final voting conference to refine the data set.

RESULTS

Two authors determined that variation in published data elements was reached after abstraction of 20 economic evaluations. Expert consultation refined the data set to 83 unique data elements, and a multidisciplinary sample of 46 experts participated in the modified-Delphi process. A total of 68 elements (81%) were selected as required, spanning demographics and clinical characteristics, genomic data, cancer treatment, health and quality of life outcomes, and resource use.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-effectiveness analyses will fail to reflect the real-world impacts of precision oncology without data to accurately characterize patient care trajectories and outcomes. Data collection in accordance with the proposed core data set will promote standardization and enable the generation of decision-grade evidence to inform reimbursement.

Accounting for Intergenerational Cascade Testing in Economic Evaluations of Clinical Genomics: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

Clinical genomics is emerging as a diagnostic tool in the identification of blood relatives at risk of developing heritable diseases. Our objective was to identify how genetic cascade screening has been incorporated into health economic evaluations.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted to identify how multiple generations of a family were included in economic evaluations of clinical genomic sequencing, how many and which relatives were included, and uptake rates. Databases were searched for full economic evaluations of genetic interventions that screened multiple generations of families and were in English language, and no restrictions were made for disease or publication type. Data were synthesized using a narrative approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies were included covering a range of diseases in various countries. Markov cohort models were mostly used with hypothetical populations and unsupported by clinical evidence. Cascade testing was either the primary intervention or secondary to the index cases. The number and type of relatives were based on assumptions or identified through population or family records, clinical registry data, or clinical literature. Studies included only immediate family members and the uptake of testing ranged between 20% and 100%. All interventions were reported as cost-effective, and a higher number of relatives was a key driver.

CONCLUSIONS

Several economic evaluations have considered the impacts of cascade testing interventions within clinical genomics. Ideally, models supported with high-quality clinical data are needed and, in their absence, transparent and justifiable assumptions of uptake rates and choices about including relatives. Consideration of more appropriate modeling types is required.

Stakeholder Perspectives on Navigating Evidentiary and Decision Uncertainty in Precision Oncology

(1) Background: Precision oncology has the potential to improve patient health and wellbeing through targeted prevention and treatment. Owing to uncertain clinical and economic outcomes, reimbursement has been limited. The objective of this pan-Canadian qualitative study was to investigate barriers to precision oncology implementation from the perspectives of health system stakeholders. (2) Methods: We conducted 32 semi-structured interviews with health technology decision makers (n = 14) and clinicians (n = 18) experienced with precision oncology. Participants were recruited using a purposive sampling technique. Interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Recruitment continued until two qualitative analysts reached agreement that thematic saturation was reached. (3) Results: While cautiously optimistic about the potential for enhanced therapeutic alignment, participants identified multiple decisional challenges under conditions of evidentiary uncertainty. Decision makers voiced concern over resource requirements alongside small benefitting patient populations and limited evidence supporting patient and health system impacts. Clinicians were comparatively tolerant of evidentiary uncertainty guiding clinical decision-making practices. Clinicians applied a broader definition of patient benefit, focusing on the ability to assist patients making informed clinical decisions. (4) Conclusions: Sustainable precision oncology must balance demand with evidence demonstrating benefit. We show that clinicians and decision makers vary in their tolerance for evolving knowledge, suggesting a need to establish evidentiary standards supporting precision oncology reimbursement decisions.

Small differences in EQ-5D-5L health utility scores were interpreted differently between and within respondents

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine how population-based health-utility score (HUS) differences reflect individuals' health preferences using responses from the Canadian EQ-5D-5L Valuation Study, including time trade-off (TTO) and discrete-choice experiment (DCE) tasks (n=1073).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Cardinal TTO responses were transformed into pairwise comparisons to yield ordinal TTO responses. We investigated how EQ-5D-5L HUS differences differ from participants' stated cardinal preferences, and determined the smallest HUS difference that may be expected to represent participants' ordinal preferences.

RESULTS

HUS differences near 0 have 30.6% (95% confidence interval: 29.1 to 31.9%) probability of representing a tie in individuals' TTO values. Differences in EQ-5D-5L HUS of -0.054 (-0.071 to -0.029) and 0.047 (0.026 to 0.076) maximized the sensitivity and specificity of discriminating transitions to worse/better health states. For small HUS differences of +/-0.03 to +/-0.07, the magnitude of respondents' average TTO difference on the cardinal scale was 0.17 and 0.35 whether ties were included or excluded, respectively. Absolute HUS differences between 0.043 and 0.064 had a 50% probability of representing respondents' ordinal preferences.

CONCLUSION

A HUS needs to be large enough to reflect individuals' stated health preferences, which may lend support to the application of a minimally important difference for decision-making.

Clinical and cost outcomes following genomics-informed treatment for advanced cancers

BACKGROUND

Single-arm trials are common in precision oncology. Owing to the lack of randomized counterfactual, resultant data are not amenable to comparative outcomes analyses. Difference-in-difference (DID) methods present an opportunity to generate causal estimates of time-varying treatment outcomes. Using DID, our study estimates within-cohort effects of genomics-informed treatment versus standard care on clinical and cost outcomes.

METHODS

We focus on adults with advanced cancers enrolled in the single-arm BC Cancer Personalized OncoGenomics program between 2012 and 2017. All individuals had a minimum of 1-year follow up. Logistic regression explored baseline differences across patients who received a genomics-informed treatment versus a standard care treatment after genomic sequencing. DID estimated the incremental effects of genomics-informed treatment on time to treatment discontinuation (TTD), time to next treatment (TTNT), and costs. TTD and TTNT correlate with improved response and survival.

RESULTS

Our study cohort included 346 patients, of whom 140 (40%) received genomics-informed treatment after sequencing and 206 (60%) received standard care treatment. No significant differences in baseline characteristics were detected across treatment groups. DID estimated that the incremental effect of genomics-informed versus standard care treatment was 102 days (95% CI: 35, 167) on TTD, 91 days (95% CI: -9, 175) on TTNT, and CAD$91,098 (95% CI: $46,848, $176,598) on costs. Effects were most pronounced in gastrointestinal cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomics-informed treatment had a statistically significant effect on TTD compared to standard care treatment, but at increased treatment costs. Within-cohort evidence generated through this single-arm study informs the early-stage comparative effectiveness of precision oncology.

Guidance for the Harmonisation and Improvement of Economic Evaluations of Personalised Medicine

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to develop guidance contributing to improved consistency and quality in economic evaluations of personalised medicine (PM), given current ambiguity about how to measure the value of PM as well as considerable variation in the methodology and reporting in economic evaluations of PM.

METHODS

A targeted literature review of methodological papers was performed for an overview of modelling challenges in PM. Expert interviews were held to discuss best modelling practice. A systematic literature review of economic evaluations of PM was conducted to gain insight into current modelling practice. The findings were synthesised and used to develop a set of draft recommendations. The draft recommendations were discussed at a stakeholder workshop and subsequently finalised.

RESULTS

Twenty-two methodological papers were identified. Some argued that the challenges in modelling PM can be addressed within existing methodological frameworks, others disagreed. Eighteen experts were interviewed. They believed large uncertainty to be a key concern. Out of 195 economic evaluations of PM identified, 56% addressed none of the identified modelling challenges. A set of 23 recommendations was developed. Eight recommendations focus on the modelling of test-treatment pathways. The use of non-randomised controlled trial data is discouraged but several recommendations are provided in case randomised controlled trial data are unavailable. The parameterisation of structural uncertainty is recommended. Other recommendations consider perspective and discounting; premature survival data; additional value elements; patient and clinician compliance; and managed entry agreements.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive list of recommendations to modellers of PM and to evaluators and reviewers of PM models.

Polygenic risk scores in the clinic: new perspectives needed on familiar ethical issues

Clinical use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) will look very different to the more familiar monogenic testing. Here we argue that despite these differences, most of the ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) raised in the monogenic setting, such as the relevance of results to family members, the approach to secondary and incidental findings, and the role of expert mediators, continue to be relevant in the polygenic context, albeit in modified form. In addition, PRS will reanimate other old debates. Their use has been proposed both in the practice of clinical medicine and of public health, two contexts with differing norms. In each of these domains, it is unclear what endpoints clinical use of PRS should aim to maximize and under what constraints. Reducing health disparities is a key value for public health, but clinical use of PRS could exacerbate race-based health disparities owing to differences in predictive power across ancestry groups. Finally, PRS will force a reckoning with pre-existing questions concerning biomarkers, namely the relevance of self-reported race, ethnicity and ancestry, and the relationship of risk factors to disease diagnoses. In this Opinion, we argue that despite the parallels to the monogenic setting, new work is urgently needed to gather data, consider normative implications, and develop best practices around this emerging branch of genomics.

Being Precise About Precision Medicine: What Should Value Frameworks Incorporate to Address Precision Medicine? A Report of the Personalized Precision Medicine Special Interest Group

Precision medicine is a dynamic area embracing a diverse and increasing type of approaches that allow the targeting of new medicines, screening programs or preventive healthcare strategies, which include the use of biologic markers or complex tests driven by algorithms also potentially taking account of patient preferences. The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcome Research expanded its current work around precision medicine to (1) describe the evolving paradigm of precision medicine with examples of current and evolving applications, (2) describe key stakeholders perspectives on the value of precision medicine in their respective domains, and (3) define the core factors that should be considered in a value assessment framework for precision medicine. With the ultimate goal of improving health of well-defined patient groups, precision medicine will affect all stakeholders in the healthcare system at multiple levels spanning the individual perspective to the societal perspective. For an efficient, timely and practical precision medicine value assessment framework, it will be important to address these multiple perspectives through building consensus among the stakeholders for robust procedures and measures of value aspects, including performance of precision mechanism; aligned reimbursement processes of precision mechanism and subsequent treatment; transparent expectations for evidence requirements and study designs adequately matched to the intended use of the precision mechanism and to the smaller target patient populations; recognizing the potential range of value-generation such as ruling-in and ruling-out decisions.

Pre-approval incentives to promote adoption of personalized medicine: a theoretical approach

BACKGROUND

Currently, personalised medicine is becoming more frequently used and many drug companies are including this strategy to gain market access for very specialized therapies. In this article, in order to understand the relationships between the health authority and the drug company when deciding upon the implementation of personalized medicines, we take a theoretical perspective to model it when the price and reimbursement policy follows a pay-for-performance scheme. During the development of a new drug, the firm must decide whether to generate additional knowledge by investing in additional resources to stratify the target population based on a biomarker or directly apply for marketing authorization for the new treatment without information on the characteristics of patients who could respond to it. In this context, we assume that the pricing policy is set by the health authority, and then we characterize the pricing and investment decisions contingent on the rate of response to the treatment.

RESULTS

We find that the price when the firm carries out R&D leading to the personalized treatments is not necessarily higher than the price if the firm does not carry out the R&D investment. When the rate of response to the treatment is too low, then the new drug is not marketed. If the rate of response is too high, personalized medicine is not implemented. For intermediate values of the rate of response, the adoption of personalized medicine may occur if the investment costs are sufficiently low; otherwise, the treatment is given to all patients without additional information on their characteristics. The higher the quality of the genetic test (in terms of its sensitivity and specificity), the wider the interval for the values of the proportional responders for which personalized medicine may be implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that pre-approval incentives (prices) to promote the personalized treatments depend on the specific characteristics of the disease and the efficacy of the treatment. The model gives an intuitive idea about what to expect in terms of price incentives when the possibility of personalizing treatments becomes a strategic decision for the stakeholders.

100 Years of evolving gene-disease complexities and scientific debutants

It's been over 100 years since the word `gene' is around and progressively evolving in several scientific directions. Time-to-time technological advancements have heavily revolutionized the field of genomics, especially when it's about, e.g. triple code development, gene number proposition, genetic mapping, data banks, gene-disease maps, catalogs of human genes and genetic disorders, CRISPR/Cas9, big data and next generation sequencing, etc. In this manuscript, we present the progress of genomics from pea plant genetics to the human genome project and highlight the molecular, technical and computational developments. Studying genome and epigenome led to the fundamentals of development and progression of human diseases, which includes chromosomal, monogenic, multifactorial and mitochondrial diseases. World Health Organization has classified, standardized and maintained all human diseases, when many academic and commercial online systems are sharing information about genes and linking to associated diseases. To efficiently fathom the wealth of this biological data, there is a crucial need to generate appropriate gene annotation repositories and resources. Our focus has been how many gene-disease databases are available worldwide and which sources are authentic, timely updated and recommended for research and clinical purposes. In this manuscript, we have discussed and compared 43 such databases and bioinformatics applications, which enable users to connect, explore and, if possible, download gene-disease data.

Early cost-effectiveness modeling for better decisions in public research investment of personalized medicine technologies

Millions of dollars are spent on the development of new personalized medicine technologies. While these research costs are often supported by public research funds, many diagnostic tests and biomarkers are not adopted by the healthcare system due to lack of evidence on their cost-effectiveness. We describe a stepwise approach to conducting cost-effectiveness analyses that are performed early in the technology's development process and can help mitigate the potential risks of investment. Decision analytic modeling can identify the key drivers of cost effectiveness and provide minimum criteria that the technology needs to meet for adoption by public and private healthcare systems. A value of information analysis can quantify the added value of conducting more research to provide further evidence for policy decisions. These steps will allow public research funders to make better decisions on their investments to maximize the health benefits and to minimize the number of suboptimal technologies.

The Future of Precision Medicine: Potential Impacts for Health Technology Assessment

OBJECTIVE

Precision medicine allows healthcare interventions to be tailored to groups of patients based on their disease susceptibility, diagnostic or prognostic information, or treatment response. We analysed what developments are expected in precision medicine over the next decade and considered the implications for health technology assessment (HTA) agencies.

METHODS

We performed a pragmatic literature search to account for the large size and wide scope of the precision medicine literature. We refined and enriched these results with a series of expert interviews up to 1 h in length, including representatives from HTA agencies, research councils and researchers designed to cover a wide spectrum of precision medicine applications and research.

RESULTS

We identified 31 relevant papers and interviewed 13 experts. We found that three types of precision medicine are expected to emerge in clinical practice: complex algorithms, digital health applications and 'omics'-based tests. These are expected to impact upon each stage of the HTA process, from scoping and modelling through to decision-making and review. The complex and uncertain treatment pathways associated with patient stratification and fast-paced technological innovation are central to these effects.

DISCUSSION

Innovation in precision medicine promises substantial benefits but will change the way in which some health services are delivered and evaluated. The shelf life of guidance may decrease, structural uncertainty may increase and new equity considerations will emerge. As biomarker discovery accelerates and artificial intelligence-based technologies emerge, refinements to the methods and processes of evidence assessments will help to adapt and maintain the objective of investing in healthcare that is value for money.

Transcriptomic and genomic profiling of early-stage ovarian carcinomas associated with histotype and overall survival

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecological malignancy in the western world. Despite recent efforts to characterize ovarian cancer using molecular profiling, few targeted treatment options are currently available. Here, we examined genetic variants, fusion transcripts, SNP genotyping, and gene expression patterns for early-stage (I and II) ovarian carcinomas (n=96) in relation to clinicopathological characteristics and clinical outcome, thereby identifying novel genetic features of ovarian carcinomas. Furthermore, mutation frequencies of specific genetic variants and/or their gene expression patterns were associated with histotype and overall survival, e.g. SLC28A2 (mucinous ovarian carcinoma histotype), ARCN1 (low expression in 0-2 year survival group), and tumor suppressor MTUS1 (mutation status and overall survival). The long non-coding RNA MALAT1 was identified as a highly promiscuous fusion transcript in ovarian carcinoma. Moreover, gene expression deregulation for 23 genes was associated with tumor aggressiveness. Taken together, the novel biomarkers identified here may improve ovarian carcinoma subclassification and patient stratification according to histotype and overall survival.

Methodological Issues in Assessing the Economic Value of Next-Generation Sequencing Tests: Many Challenges and Not Enough Solutions

BACKGROUND

Clinical use of next-generation sequencing (NGS) tests has been increasing, but few studies have examined their economic value. Several studies have noted that there are methodological challenges to conducting economic evaluations of NGS tests.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to examine key methodological challenges for conducting economic evaluations of NGS tests, prioritize these challenges for future research, and identify how studies have attempted solutions to address these challenges.

METHODS

We identified challenges for economic evaluations of NGS tests using prior literature and expert judgment of the co-authors. We used a modified Delphi assessment to prioritize challenges, based on importance and probability of resolution. Using a structured literature review and article extraction we then assessed whether published economic evaluations had addressed these challenges.

RESULTS

We identified 11 challenges for conducting economic evaluations of NGS tests. The experts identified three challenges as the top priorities for future research: complex model structure, timeframe, and type of analysis and comparators used. Of the 15 published studies included in our literature review, four studies described specific solutions relevant to five of the 11 identified challenges.

CONCLUSIONS

Major methodological challenges to economic evaluations of NGS tests remain to be addressed. Our results can be used to guide future research and inform decision-makers on how to prioritize research on the economic assessment of NGS tests.

COPD stands for complex obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has extensively been reported as a complex disease affecting patients' health beyond the lungs with a variety of intra- and extrapulmonary components and considerable variability between individuals. This review discusses the assessment of this complexity and underlines the importance of transdisciplinary management programmes addressing the physical, emotional and social health of the individual patient.COPD management is challenging and requires advanced, sophisticated strategies meeting the patient's individual needs. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the disease leading to non-linear and consequently poorly predictable treatment responses, multidimensional patient profiling is crucial to identify the right COPD patient for the right treatment. Current methods are often restricted to general, well-known and commonly used assessments neglecting potentially relevant (interactions between) individual, unique "traits" to finally ensure personalised treatment. Dynamic, personalised and holistic approaches are needed to tackle this multifaceted disease and to ensure personalised medicine and value-based healthcare.

The melanoma genomics managing your risk study: A protocol for a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of personal genomic risk information on skin cancer prevention behaviors

BACKGROUND

Reducing ultraviolet radiation (UV) exposure and improving early detection may reduce melanoma incidence, mortality and health system costs. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of providing information on personal genomic risk of melanoma in reducing UV exposure at 12 months, according to low and high traditional risk.

METHODS

In this randomized controlled trial, participants (target sample = 892) will be recruited from the general population, and randomized (1:1 ratio, intervention versus control). Intervention arm participants provide a saliva sample, receive personalized melanoma genomic risk information, a genetic counselor phone call, and an educational booklet on melanoma prevention. Control arm participants receive only the educational booklet. Eligible participants are aged 18-69 years, have European ancestry and no personal history of melanoma. All participants will complete a questionnaire and wear a UV dosimeter to objectively measure their sun exposure at baseline, 1- and 12-month time-points, except 1-month UV dosimetry will be limited to ~250 participants. The primary outcome is total daily Standard Erythemal Doses at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include objectively measured UV exposure for specific time periods (e.g. midday hours), self-reported sun protection and skin-examination behaviors, psycho-social outcomes, and ethical considerations surrounding offering genomic testing at a population level. A within-trial and modelled economic evaluation will be undertaken from an Australian health system perspective to assess the intervention costs and outcomes.

DISCUSSION

This trial will inform the clinical and personal utility of introducing genomic testing into the health system for melanoma prevention and early detection at a population-level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12617000691347.

Physician-Specific Maximum Acceptable Risk in Personalized Medicine: Implications for Medical Decision Making

BACKGROUND

In discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), respondents are presented with a series of scenarios and asked to select their preferred choice. In clinical decision making, DCEs allow one to calculate the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) that a respondent is willing to accept for a one-unit increase in treatment efficacy. Most published studies report the average MAR for the whole sample, without conveying any information about heterogeneity. For a sample of psychiatrists prescribing drugs for a series of hypothetical patients with schizophrenia, this article demonstrates how heterogeneity accounted for in the DCE modeling can be incorporated in the derivation of the MAR.

METHODS

Psychiatrists were given information about a group of patients' responses to treatment on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the weight gain associated with the treatment observed in a series of 26 vignettes. We estimated a random parameters logit (RPL) model with treatment choice as the dependent variable.

RESULTS

Results from the RPL were used to compute the MAR for the overall sample. This was found to be equal to 4%, implying that, overall, psychiatrists were willing to accept a 4% increase in the risk of an adverse event to obtain a one-unit improvement of symptoms - measured on the PANSS. Heterogeneity was then incorporated in the MAR calculation, finding that MARs ranged between 0.5 and 9.5 across the sample of psychiatrists.

LIMITATIONS

We provided psychiatrists with hypothetical scenarios, and their MAR may change when making decisions for actual patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis aimed to show how it is possible to calculate physician-specific MARs and to discuss how MAR heterogeneity could have implications for medical practice.

Cost-effectiveness analyses of genetic and genomic diagnostic tests

Developments in next-generation sequencing technologies have driven the clinical application of diagnostic tests that interrogate the whole genome, which offer the chance to diagnose rare inherited diseases or inform the targeting of therapies. New genomic diagnostic tests compete with traditional approaches to diagnosis, including the genetic testing of single genes and other clinical strategies, for finite health-care budgets. In this context, decision analytic model-based cost-effectiveness analysis is a useful method to help evaluate the costs versus consequences of introducing new health-care interventions. This Perspective presents key methodological, technical, practical and organizational challenges that must be considered by decision-makers responsible for the allocation of health-care resources to obtain robust and timely information about the relative cost-effectiveness of the increasing numbers of emerging genomic tests.

The economic case for precision medicine

Introduction: The advancement of precision medicine into routine clinical practice has been highlighted as an agenda for national and international health care policy. A principle barrier to this advancement is in meeting requirements of the payer or reimbursement agency for health care. This special report aims to explain the economic case for precision medicine, by accounting for the explicit objectives defined by decision-makers responsible for the allocation of limited health care resources. Areas covered: The framework of cost-effectiveness analysis, a method of economic evaluation, is used to describe how precision medicine can, in theory, exploit identifiable patient-level heterogeneity to improve population health outcomes and the relative cost-effectiveness of health care. Four case studies are used to illustrate potential challenges when demonstrating the economic case for a precision medicine in practice. Expert commentary: The economic case for a precision medicine should be considered at an early stage during its research and development phase. Clinical and economic evidence can be generated iteratively and should be in alignment with the objectives and requirements of decision-makers. Programmes of further research, to demonstrate the economic case of a precision medicine, can be prioritized by the extent that they reduce the uncertainty expressed by decision-makers.

Prevention, Early Dialogue and Education in the Personalised Healthcare Era

In the EU, the “portrait” of healthcare has undergone many changes down the years, with many adaptations as the EU has evolved. The role of patients has become much more significant as they have gained greater knowledge; there have been giant leaps in innovation, while societal changes and issues (such as the ageing population) have led to different priorities. Today's portrait of healthcare features many perspectives, schools of thought and approaches coming from different stakeholders, different Member States and even different regions within those Member States. One thing that has become very clear is that a one-size-fits-all approach to treatment is outmoded, wasteful and often counterproductive to the health of patients. This includes, in these days of increasing co-morbidities, treating one disease separately, rather than looking at the patient's health issues as a whole. Meanwhile, citizens are being bombarded with often contradictory messages regarding what is “good” or “bad” for them, often in a patronising manner, while the realities of extremely effective preventative measures are often obscured, with a lack of emphasis on screening and early diagnosis. The authors argue that, among other matters, better communication and education are key to improving healthcare in Europe.

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online

BACKGROUND

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification.

METHODS

A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed.

RESULTS

Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Development of a novel prognostic score for breast cancer patients using mRNA expression of CHAC1

AIM

To develop a prognostic score for primary breast cancer patients integrating conventional predictors and the novel biomarker CHAC1 to aid adjuvant chemotherapy decisions.

PATIENTS & METHODS

A prognostic score for overall survival was developed using: conventional predictors from a dataset of 1777 patients and the weight of CHAC1 mRNA expression from an independent dataset of 106 patients using multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

The new score includes: CHAC1 mRNA expression, age, tumor size, HER2 neu status, lymph node status and degree of malignancy. Using a cut-off value of 11 score points, 10-year survival was 82% in low-risk (n = 34) and 43% in high-risk patients (n = 72). The addition of CHAC1 resulted in 16% reclassification.

CONCLUSION

Including CHAC1 in prognostic prediction may aid (and change) personalized treatment selection.

Value-Based Pricing and Reimbursement in Personalised Healthcare: Introduction to the Basic Health Economics

'Value-based' outcomes, pricing, and reimbursement are widely discussed as health sector reforms these days. In this paper, we discuss their meaning and relationship in the context of personalized healthcare, defined as receipt of care conditional on the results of a biomarker-based diagnostic test. We address the question: "What kinds of pricing and reimbursement models should be applied in personalized healthcare?" The simple answer is that competing innovators and technology adopters should have incentives that promote long-term dynamic efficiency. We argue that-to meet this social objective of optimal innovation in personalized healthcare-payers, as agents of their plan participants, should aim to send clear signals to their suppliers about what they value. We begin by revisiting the concept of value from an economic perspective, and argue that a broader concept of value is needed in the context of personalized healthcare. We discuss the market for personalized healthcare and the interplay between price and reimbursement. We close by emphasizing the potential barrier posed by inflexible or cost-based reimbursement systems, especially for biomarker-based predictive tests, and how these personalized technologies have global public goods characteristics that require global value-based differential pricing to achieve dynamic efficiency in terms of the optimal rate of innovation and adoption.

Using Discrete Choice Experiments to Inform the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines: Are We Ready Yet?

There is emerging interest in the use of discrete choice experiments as a means of quantifying the perceived balance between benefits and risks (quantitative benefit-risk assessment) of new healthcare interventions, such as medicines, under assessment by regulatory agencies. For stated preference data on benefit-risk assessment to be used in regulatory decision making, the methods to generate these data must be valid, reliable and capable of producing meaningful estimates understood by decision makers. Some reporting guidelines exist for discrete choice experiments, and for related methods such as conjoint analysis. However, existing guidelines focus on reporting standards, are general in focus and do not consider the requirements for using discrete choice experiments specifically for quantifying benefit-risk assessments in the context of regulatory decision making. This opinion piece outlines the current state of play in using discrete choice experiments for benefit-risk assessment and proposes key areas needing to be addressed to demonstrate that discrete choice experiments are an appropriate and valid stated preference elicitation method in this context. Methodological research is required to establish: how robust the results of discrete choice experiments are to formats and methods of risk communication; how information in the discrete choice experiment can be presented effectually to respondents; whose preferences should be elicited; the correct underlying utility function and analytical model; the impact of heterogeneity in preferences; and the generalisability of the results. We believe these methodological issues should be addressed, alongside developing a 'reference case', before agencies can safely and confidently use discrete choice experiments for quantitative benefit-risk assessment in the context of regulatory decision making for new medicines and healthcare products.

Active Surveillance Versus Watchful Waiting for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Model to Inform Decisions

BACKGROUND

An increasing proportion of prostate cancer is being managed conservatively. However, there are no randomized trials or consensus regarding the optimal follow-up strategy.

OBJECTIVE

To compare life expectancy and quality of life between watchful waiting (WW) versus different strategies of active surveillance (AS).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A Markov model was created for US men starting at age 50, diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who chose conservative management by WW or AS using different testing protocols (prostate-specific antigen every 3-6 mo, biopsy every 1-5 yr, or magnetic resonance imaging based). Transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from the literature.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Primary outcomes were life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Secondary outcomes include radical treatment, metastasis, and prostate cancer death.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

All AS strategies yielded more life years compared with WW. Lifetime risks of prostate cancer death and metastasis were, respectively, 5.42% and 6.40% with AS versus 8.72% and 10.30% with WW. AS yielded more QALYs than WW except in cohorts age >65 yr at diagnosis, or when treatment-related complications were long term. The preferred follow-up strategy was also sensitive to whether people value short-term over long-term benefits (time preference). Depending on the AS protocol, 30-41% underwent radical treatment within 10 yr. Extending the surveillance biopsy interval from 1 to 5 yr reduced life years slightly, with a 0.26 difference in QALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

AS extends life more than WW, particularly for men with higher-risk features, but this is partly offset by the decrement in quality of life since many men eventually receive treatment.

PATIENT SUMMARY

More intensive active surveillance protocols extend life more than watchful waiting, but this is partly offset by decrements in quality of life from subsequent treatment.

Public Preferences for Lung Cancer Screening Policies

BACKGROUND

Because early detection of lung cancer can substantially improve survival, there is increasing attention for lung cancer screening.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate public preferences for lung cancer screening and to identify subgroups in preferences.

METHODS

Seven important attributes were selected using the literature, interviews, and a panel session. Preferences were elicited using a swing weighting questionnaire. The resulting attribute weights indicate the relative importance of swings from the worst to the best level between attributes. Hierarchical clustering was used to identify subgroups with different attribute weights.

RESULTS

One thousand thirty-four respondents from a representative Dutch panel aged between 40 and 80 years were included. The identified attributes were location of screening (weight = 0.18 ± 0.16), mode of screening (weight = 0.17 ± 0.14), sensitivity (weight = 0.16 ± 0.13) and specificity (weight = 0.13 ± 0.12) of the screening modality, waiting time until results (weight = 0.13 ± 0.12), radiation burden (weight = 0.13 ± 0.12), and duration of screening procedure (weight = 0.10 ± 0.09). Most respondents preferred breath analysis (45%) to giving blood samples (31%) or going through a scanner (24%) as screening modality; 59% preferred screening at the general practitioner's office instead of at the hospital. There was a significant difference in education between the five identified preference subgroups (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

There is considerable variation in how people value attributes of lung cancer screening. Different screening policies and implementation strategies may be appropriate for particular preference subgroups. Our results indicate that people prefer breath analysis and that they are more likely to attend screening modalities that can be used at a primary care facility.

Use of large-scale HRQoL datasets to generate individualised predictions and inform patients about the likely benefit of surgery

Purpose

The English NHS has mandated the routine collection of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data before and after surgery, giving prospective patient information about the likely benefit of surgery. Yet, the information is difficult to access and interpret because it is not presented in a lay-friendly format and does not reflect patients’ individual circumstances. We set out a methodology to generate personalised information to help patients make informed decisions.

Methods

We used anonymised, pre- and postoperative EuroQol-5D-3L (EQ-5D) data for over 490,000 English NHS patients who underwent primary hip or knee replacement surgery or groin hernia repair between April 2009 and March 2016. We estimated linear regression models to relate changes in EQ-5D utility scores to patients’ own assessment of the success of surgery, and calculated from that minimally important differences for health improvements/deteriorations. Classification tree analysis was used to develop algorithms that sort patients into homogeneous groups that best predict postoperative EQ-5D utility scores.

Results

Patients were classified into between 55 (hip replacement) to 60 (hernia repair) homogeneous groups. The classifications explained between 14 and 27% of variation in postoperative EQ-5D utility score.

Conclusions

Patients are heterogeneous in their expected benefit from surgery, and decision aids should reflect this. Large administrative datasets on HRQoL can be used to generate the required individualised predictions to inform patients.

Personalized medicine in Europe: not yet personal enough?

Background

Personalized medicine has the potential to allow patients to receive drugs specific to their individual disease, and to increase the efficiency of the healthcare system. There is currently no comprehensive overview of personalized medicine, and this research aims to provide an overview of the concept and definition of personalized medicine in nine European countries.

Methods

A targeted literature review of selected health databases and grey literature was conducted to collate information regarding the definition, process, use, funding, impact and challenges associated with personalized medicine. In-depth qualitative interviews were carried out with experts with health technology assessment, clinical provisioning, payer, academic, economic and industry experience, and with patient organizations.

Results

We identified a wide range of definitions of personalized medicine, with most studies referring to the use of diagnostics and individual biological information such as genetics and biomarkers. Few studies mentioned patients’ needs, beliefs, behaviour, values, wishes, utilities, environment and circumstances, and there was little evidence in the literature for formal incorporation of patient preferences into the evaluation of new medicines. Most interviewees described approaches to stratification and segmentation of patients based on genetic markers or diagnostics, and few mentioned health-related quality of life.

Conclusions

The published literature on personalized medicine is predominantly focused on patient stratification according to individual biological information. Although these approaches are important, incorporation of environmental factors and patients’ preferences in decision making is also needed. In future, personalized medicine should move from treating diseases to managing patients, taking into account all individual factors.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2205-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Weighing Clinical Evidence Using Patient Preferences: An Application of Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The need for patient engagement has been recognized by regulatory agencies, but there is no consensus about how to operationalize this. One approach is the formal elicitation and use of patient preferences for weighing clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to demonstrate how patient preferences can be used to weigh clinical outcomes when both preferences and clinical outcomes are uncertain by applying a probabilistic value-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. Probability distributions were used to model random variation and parameter uncertainty in preferences, and parameter uncertainty in clinical outcomes. The posterior value distributions and rank probabilities for each treatment were obtained using Monte-Carlo simulations. The probability of achieving the first rank is the probability that a treatment represents the highest value to patients. We illustrated our methodology for a simplified case on six HIV treatments. Preferences were modeled with normal distributions and clinical outcomes were modeled with beta distributions. The treatment value distributions showed the rank order of treatments according to patients and illustrate the remaining decision uncertainty. This study demonstrated how patient preference data can be used to weigh clinical evidence using MCDA. The model takes into account uncertainty in preferences and clinical outcomes. The model can support decision makers during the aggregation step of the MCDA process and provides a first step toward preference-based personalized medicine, yet requires further testing regarding its appropriate use in real-world settings.

Evaluating Frameworks That Provide Value Measures for Health Care Interventions

The recent acceleration of scientific discovery has led to greater choices in health care. New technologies, diagnostic tests, and pharmaceuticals have widely varying impact on patients and populations in terms of benefits, toxicities, and costs, stimulating a resurgence of interest in the creation of frameworks intended to measure value in health. Many of these are offered by providers and/or advocacy organizations with expertise and interest in specific diseases (e.g., cancer and heart disease). To help assess the utility of and the potential biases embedded in these frameworks, we created an evaluation taxonomy with seven basic components: 1) define the purpose; 2) detail the conceptual approach, including perspectives, methods for obtaining preferences of decision makers (e.g., patients), and ability to incorporate multiple dimensions of value; 3) discuss inclusions and exclusions of elements included in the framework, and whether the framework assumes clinical intervention or offers alternatives such as palliative care or watchful waiting; 4) evaluate data sources and their scientific validity; 5) assess the intervention's effect on total costs of treating a defined population; 6) analyze how uncertainty is incorporated; and 7) illuminate possible conflicts of interest among those creating the framework. We apply the taxonomy to four representative value frameworks recently published by professional organizations focused on treatment of cancer and heart disease and on vaccine use. We conclude that each of these efforts has strengths and weaknesses when evaluated using our taxonomy, and suggest pathways to enhance the utility of value-assessing frameworks for policy and clinical decision making.

"What Goes Around Comes Around": Lessons Learned from Economic Evaluations of Personalized Medicine Applied to Digital Medicine

BACKGROUND

The growth of "big data" and the emphasis on patient-centered health care have led to the increasing use of two key technologies: personalized medicine and digital medicine. For these technologies to move into mainstream health care and be reimbursed by insurers, it will be essential to have evidence that their benefits provide reasonable value relative to their costs. These technologies, however, have complex characteristics that present challenges to the assessment of their economic value. Previous studies have identified the challenges for personalized medicine and thus this work informs the more nascent topic of digital medicine.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the methodological challenges and future opportunities for assessing the economic value of digital medicine, using personalized medicine as a comparison.

METHODS

We focused specifically on digital biomarker technologies and multigene tests. We identified similarities in these technologies that can present challenges to economic evaluation: multiple results, results with different types of utilities, secondary findings, downstream impact (including on family members), and interactive effects.

RESULTS

Using a structured review, we found that there are few economic evaluations of digital biomarker technologies, with limited results.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that more evidence on the effectiveness of digital medicine will be needed but that the experiences with personalized medicine can inform what data will be needed and how such analyses can be conducted. Our study points out the critical need for typologies and terminology for digital medicine technologies that would enable them to be classified in ways that will facilitate research on their effectiveness and value.

A time-and-motion approach to micro-costing of high-throughput genomic assays

BACKGROUND

Genomic technologies are increasingly used to guide clinical decision-making in cancer control. Economic evidence about the cost-effectiveness of genomic technologies is limited, in part because of a lack of published comprehensive cost estimates. In the present micro-costing study, we used a time-and-motion approach to derive cost estimates for 3 genomic assays and processes-digital gene expression profiling (gep), fluorescence in situ hybridization (fish), and targeted capture sequencing, including bioinformatics analysis-in the context of lymphoma patient management.

METHODS

The setting for the study was the Department of Lymphoid Cancer Research laboratory at the BC Cancer Agency in Vancouver, British Columbia. Mean per-case hands-on time and resource measurements were determined from a series of direct observations of each assay. Per-case cost estimates were calculated using a bottom-up costing approach, with labour, capital and equipment, supplies and reagents, and overhead costs included.

RESULTS

The most labour-intensive assay was found to be fish at 258.2 minutes per case, followed by targeted capture sequencing (124.1 minutes per case) and digital gep (14.9 minutes per case). Based on a historical case throughput of 180 cases annually, the mean per-case cost (2014 Canadian dollars) was estimated to be $1,029.16 for targeted capture sequencing and bioinformatics analysis, $596.60 for fish, and $898.35 for digital gep with an 807-gene code set.

CONCLUSIONS

With the growing emphasis on personalized approaches to cancer management, the need for economic evaluations of high-throughput genomic assays is increasing. Through economic modelling and budget-impact analyses, the cost estimates presented here can be used to inform priority-setting decisions about the implementation of such assays in clinical practice.

Integrating precision cancer medicine into healthcare-policy, practice, and research challenges

Precision medicine (PM) can be defined as a predictive, preventive, personalized, and participatory healthcare service delivery model. Recent developments in molecular biology and information technology make PM a reality today through the use of massive amounts of genetic, ‘omics’, clinical, environmental, and lifestyle data. With cancer being one of the most prominent public health threats in developed countries, both the research community and governments have been investing significant time, money, and efforts in precision cancer medicine (PCM). Although PCM research is extremely promising, a number of hurdles still remain on the road to an optimal integration of standardized and evidence-based use of PCM in healthcare systems. Indeed, PCM raises a number of technical, organizational, ethical, legal, social, and economic challenges that have to be taken into account in the development of an appropriate health policy framework. Here, we highlight some of the more salient issues regarding the standards needed for integration of PCM into healthcare systems, and we identify fields where more research is needed before policy can be implemented. Key challenges include, but are not limited to, the creation of new standards for the collection, analysis, and sharing of samples and data from cancer patients, and the creation of new clinical trial designs with renewed endpoints. We believe that these issues need to be addressed as a matter of priority by public health policymakers in the coming years for a better integration of PCM into healthcare.

Economic Evaluation in Stratified Medicine: Methodological Issues and Challenges

BACKGROUND

Stratified Medicine (SM) is becoming a practical reality with the targeting of medicines by using a biomarker or genetic-based diagnostic to identify the eligible patient sub-population. Like any healthcare intervention, SM interventions have costs and consequences that must be considered by reimbursement authorities with limited resources. Methodological standards and guidelines exist for economic evaluations in clinical pharmacology and are an important component for health technology assessments (HTAs) in many countries. However, these guidelines have initially been developed for traditional pharmaceuticals and not for complex interventions with multiple components. This raises the issue as to whether these guidelines are adequate to SM interventions or whether new specific guidance and methodology is needed to avoid inconsistencies and contradictory findings when assessing economic value in SM.

OBJECTIVE

This article describes specific methodological challenges when conducting health economic (HE) evaluations for SM interventions and outlines potential modifications necessary to existing evaluation guidelines /principles that would promote consistent economic evaluations for SM.

RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS

Specific methodological aspects for SM comprise considerations on the choice of comparator, measuring effectiveness and outcomes, appropriate modeling structure and the scope of sensitivity analyses. Although current HE methodology can be applied for SM, greater complexity requires further methodology development and modifications in the guidelines.

Estimating the value of medical treatments to patients using probabilistic multi criteria decision analysis

BACKGROUND

Estimating the value of medical treatments to patients is an essential part of healthcare decision making, but is mostly done implicitly and without consulting patients. Multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been proposed for the valuation task, while stated preference studies are increasingly used to measure patient preferences. In this study we propose a methodology for using stated preferences to weigh clinical evidence in an MCDA model that includes uncertainty in both patient preferences and clinical evidence explicitly.

METHODS

A probabilistic MCDA model with an additive value function was developed and illustrated using a case on hypothetical treatments for depression. The patient-weighted values were approximated with Monte Carlo simulations and compared to expert-weighted results. Decision uncertainty was calculated as the probability of rank reversal for the first rank. Furthermore, scenario analyses were done to assess the relative impact of uncertainty in preferences and clinical evidence, and of assuming uniform preference distributions.

RESULTS

The patient-weighted values for drug A, drug B, drug C, and placebo were 0.51 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.54), 0.51 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.54), 0.54 (0.49 to 0.58), and 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.17), respectively. Drug C was the most preferred treatment and the rank reversal probability for first rank was 27%. This probability decreased to 18% when uncertainty in performances was not included and increased to 41% when uncertainty in criterion weights was not included. With uniform preference distributions, the first rank reversal probability increased to 61%. The expert-weighted values for drug A, drug B, drug C, and placebo were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.68), 0.57 (95% CI: 0.56 to 0.59), 0.67 (95% CI: 0.61 to 0.71), and 0.19 (95% CI: 0.17 to 0.21). The rank reversal probability for the first rank according to experts was 49%.

CONCLUSIONS

Preferences elicited from patients can be used to weigh clinical evidence in a probabilistic MCDA model. The resulting treatment values can be contrasted to results from experts, and the impact of uncertainty can be quantified using rank probabilities. Future research should focus on integrating the model with regulatory decision frameworks and on including other types of uncertainty.