Predictors of short- and long-term mortality among acutely admitted older patients: role of inflammation and frailty

Inflammation scores based on C-reactive protein and albumin predict mortality in hospitalized older patients independent of the admission diagnosis

Systemic inflammation significantly increases the risk of short- and long-term mortality in geriatric hospitalized patients. To predict mortality in older patients with various age-related diseases and infections, including COVID-19, inflammatory biomarkers such as the C-reactive protein (CRP) to albumin ratio (CAR), and related scores and indexes, i.e. Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), and high sensitivity (hs)-mGPS, have been increasingly utilized. Despite their easy affordability and widespread availability, these biomarkers are predominantly assessed for clinical purposes rather than predictive applications, leading to their underutilization in hospitalized older patients. In this study, we investigated the association of CAR, GPS, mGPS, and hs-mGPS with short-term mortality in 3,206 geriatric hospitalized patients admitted for acute conditions, irrespective of admission diagnosis. We observed that unit increases of CAR, and the highest classes of GPS, mGPS, and hs-mGPS were significantly associated with a two- to threefold increased risk of death, even adjusting the risk for different confounding variables. Interestingly, a hs-mGPS of 2 showed the highest effect size. Furthermore, gender analysis indicated a stronger association between all CRP-albumin based parameters and mortality in men, underscoring the gender-specific relevance of inflammation-based circulating parameters in mortality prediction. In conclusion, scores based on serum CRP and albumin levels offer additional guidance for the stratification of in-hospital mortality risk in older patients by providing additional information on the degree of systemic inflammation.

Multidimensional frailty as a predictor of mortality among older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review examined studies that assessed the relationship between mortality risk and multidimensional frailty. The pooled risk of mortality was estimated via a meta-analysis.

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic search for potentially eligible literature was conducted on January 2, 2023, using five electronic databases: Web of Science, CINAHL, PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Embase. This review included cohort or longitudinal studies examining the association between multidimensional frailty/prefrailty and mortality in older adults. The quality of the included studies was evaluated via the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Two independent researchers identified eligible studies and extracted the data. The data analyses were performed via STATA, version 15.0.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies with 34,664 participants were included. The 24 studies were published between 2012 and 2022, with most studies being performed in Italy (n = 16). The sample sizes of the included studies ranged from 71 to 12,020. Most included studies were conducted in hospital settings. The QUIPS bias assessment results showed that the most frequent source of potential bias was study confounding. The meta-analysis results showed that multidimensional frailty was a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 5.48, 95% CI = 3.91-7.67, p < 0.001). In addition, multidimensional prefrailty was also a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 2.56, 95% CI = 2.17-3.02, p < 0.001). The results of the meta-analysis using the ORs revealed that multidimensional frailty was a risk factor for mortality in older people (OR = 4.59, 95% CI = 2.47-8.55, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review of the relationship between multidimensional frailty and mortality found that multidimensional frailty/prefrailty is a predictor of mortality. More studies should be conducted in community dwelling populations and nursing homes.

The incidence and mortality of refeeding syndrome in older hospitalized patients, based on three different diagnostic criteria: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Refeeding syndrome (RFS) lacks both a global definition and diagnostic criteria. Different diagnostic criteria are used; serum phosphate (traditional criterion (TC)), the Friedli consensus recommendations, and the ASPEN. We investigated the incidence of RFS in older hospitalized patients and the mortality rates in patients with or without RFS using these three different diagnostic criteria.

METHODS

This is a longitudinal study with data originating from a randomized controlled trial conducted between March 2017 and August 2019. A total of 85 malnourished hospitalized patients at risk of RFS according to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence tool for detecting patients at risk of RFS, were included. All patients were provided with enteral tube feeding, and electrolytes were measured daily during the intervention period. Friedli and ASPEN included phosphate, magnesium, and potassium in their definitions, but used different cut-off values. Incidences were recorded, and Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to determine whether mortality was more prevalent in patients with RFS. Regression analysis was used to test for confounders regarding the association between RFS and death, and Kappa was used to test for agreement between the three diagnostic criteria.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of the patients was 79.8 (7.4) years, and the mean (SD) BMI was 18.5 (3.4) kg/m2. The mean (SD) kcal/kg/day was 19 (11) on day one and 26 (15) on day seven. The incidences of RFS differed with the criteria used; 12.9% (TC), 31.8% (Friedli), and 65.9% (ASPEN). Mortality was high, with 36.5% (n = 31) and 56.5% (n = 48) of patients dead at three-month and one-year follow-up, respectively. In the TC, 8/11 (72.7%) with RFS vs. 40/74 (54.1%) without RFS died within one-year, in Friedli 15/27 (55.5%) with RFS vs. 33/58 (56.9%) without RFS died, and in ASPEN 32/56 (65.9%) with RFS, vs. 16/29 (55.2%) without RFS died within one-year. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between patients with or without RFS regardless of which criteria were used. Age was the only variable associated with death at one-year. The Kappa analysis showed very low agreement between the categories.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that using different diagnostic criteria significantly impacts incidence rates. However, regardless of criteria used, the mortality was not significantly higher in the group of patients with RFS compared to the patients without RFS. Furthermore, none of the criteria showed a significant association with death at one-year. This supports the need for a global unified diagnostic criterion for RFS. This study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier NCT03141489).

Plasma cfDNA abundance as a prognostic biomarker for higher risk of death in geriatric cardiovascular patients

The management of geriatric cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients with multimorbidity remains challenging and could potentially be improved by integrating clinical data with innovative prognostic biomarkers. In this context, the analysis of circulating analytes, including cell-free DNA (cfDNA), appears particularly promising. Here, we investigated circulating cfDNA (measured through the quantification of 247 bp and 115 bp Alu genomic fragments) in a cohort of 244 geriatric CVD patients with multimorbidity hospitalised for acute CVD or non-CVD events. Survival analysis showed a direct association between Alu 247 cfDNA abundance and risk of death, particularly evident in the first six months after admission for acute CVD events. Higher plasma cfDNA concentration was associated with mortality in the same period of time. The cfDNA integrity (Alu 247/115), although not associated with outcome, appeared to be useful in discriminating patients in whom Alu 247 cfDNA abundance is most effective as a prognostic biomarker. The cfDNA parameters were associated with several biochemical markers of inflammation and myocardial damage. In conclusion, an increase in plasma cfDNA abundance at hospital admission is indicative of a higher risk of death in geriatric CVD patients, especially after acute CVD events, and its analysis may be potentially useful for risk stratification.

Prognostic Role of NECPAL CCOMS-ICO Tool on One-Year Mortality in a Hospitalized Older Population

Background: It is essential to establish both the appropriateness of palliative care (PC) and the prognosis in daily clinical practice to guide decision making in the management of older people with multiple advanced chronic diseases. Objectives: We assessed patients who were appropriate for PC using the NECPAL tool in a hospitalized older population and then we investigated its predictive validity on one-year mortality compared with the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), a validated geriatric prognostic tool. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting/Subjects: We enrolled 103 older adults hospitalized for acute medical and surgical conditions in a geriatric hospital in Italy. Measurements: The variables of interest were obtained at baseline through interviews of the ward medical staff and by consulting the computerized medical records. Long-term mortality (one-year) was assessed through the analysis of data acquired from hospital or territorial databases or through telephone contact with caregivers. Results: Mean age was 86.8 ± 7.2 years, with a female prevalence of 54.4%. Prevalence of NECPAL+ patients was 65.1%. MPI low risk: 30.1%; moderate risk: 41.7%; severe risk: 28.2%. Patients deceased during follow-up were 54.4%. NECPAL+ patients were more likely to die, even after adjusting for age, sex, and MPI score (hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, p = 0.020). All the NECPAL categories were associated with one-year mortality. MPI showed a better predictive power than NECPAL (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 vs. 0.75, p = 0.030). After the exclusion of "Comorbidity: ≥2 concurrent diseases" item from NECPAL, its AUC increased to 0.78 with no statistically significant differences from MPI (p = 0.122). Conclusions: NECPAL is useful to identify the appropriateness of PC in hospitalized older adults, also allowing to predict long-term mortality with a performance similar to that of a validated geriatric prognostic tool.

Association between Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) Score and Body Composition, Inflammation and Frailty in Hospitalized Elderly Patients

The Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score has demonstrated its ability to identify patients with poor nutritional status and predict various clinical outcomes. Our objective was to assess the association between the CONUT score, inflammatory status, and body composition, as well as its ability to identify patients at risk of frailty in hospitalized elderly patients.

METHODS

a total of 361 patients were retrospectively recruited and divided into three groups based on the CONUT score.

RESULTS

patients with a score ≥5 exhibited significantly higher levels of inflammatory markers, such as erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), Neutrophil/Lymphocytes ratio (NLR), main platelet volume (MPV), and ferritin, compared to those with a lower score. Furthermore, these patients showed unfavorable changes in body composition, including a lower percentage of skeletal muscle mass (MM) and fat-free mass (FFM) and a higher percentage of fatty mass (FM). A positive correlation was found between the CONUT score and inflammatory markers, Geriatric Depression Scale Short Form (GDS-SF), and FM. Conversely, the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Mini-Mental Status Examination, activity daily living (ADL), instrumental activity daily living (IADL), Barthel index, FFM, and MM showed a negative correlation. Frailty was highly prevalent among patients with a higher CONUT score. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated high accuracy in identifying frail patients (sensitivity).

CONCLUSIONS

a high CONUT score is associated with a pro-inflammatory status as well as with unfavorable body composition. Additionally, it is a good tool to identify frailty among hospitalized elderly patients.

Outcome of patients older than 85 years hospitalized in a neurology unit

BACKGROUND

Advanced age is a major determinant of mortality and poor outcome at any level. In hospitalized patients, advanced age is a major issue in terms of prognosis, resource use, and therapeutic choices.

AIMS

We aimed at assessing the 1 year outcome of elderly patients admitted to a neurology unit for various acute conditions.

METHODS

Consecutive patients admitted to a neurology unit were enrolled and followed-up at 3, 6, and 12 months with structured phone interviews gathering information about mortality, disability, hospital readmissions, and place of residency. Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 85 years, availability of written consent and phone contact; no exclusion criteria were applied.

RESULTS

Over a period of 16 months, 131 patients (88.8 ± 3.3, 92 females, 39 males) were admitted. The pre-hospitalization modified Rankin Scale (mRS) median (IQR) score, obtainable in 125 patients, was 2 (0, 3) and > 3 in 28/125 (22.4%) patients. Fifty-eight (46.8%) patients had pre-existing dementia (this information was missing for one patient). Eleven patients died during hospitalization. Of the 120 discharged patients, 60 (50%) were alive at 12 months, 41 died during follow-up (34.2%), and 19 (15.8%) were lost. At 12 months, out of the 60 alive patients, 29 (48.3%) had a mRS > 3. We did not detect predictors of 12-month survival. Predictors of 12-month worsening of functional status were pre-hospitalization mRS, pre-existing cognitive impairment, and male sex.

CONCLUSIONS

One-year mortality of elderly patients admitted to a neurology unit is extremely high. After one year, less than one fourth of elderly patients hospitalised for an acute neurological disease are left with only no-to-moderate disability.

Prediction of Mortality in Older Hospitalized Patients after Discharge as Determined by Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment

Several dimensional impairments regarding Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) have been shown to be associated with the prognosis of older patients. The purpose of this study is to investigate mortality prediction factors based upon clinical characteristics and test in CGA, and then subsequently develop a prediction model to classify both short- and long-term mortality risk in hospitalized older patients after discharge. A total of 1565 older patients with a median age of 81 years (74.0−86.0) were consecutively enrolled. The CGA, which included assessment of clinical, cognitive, functional, nutritional, and social parameters during hospitalization, as well as clinical information on each patient was recorded. Within the one-year follow up period, 110 patients (7.0%) had died. Using simple Cox regression analysis, it was shown that a patient’s Length of Stay (LOS), previous hospitalization history, admission Barthel Index (BI) score, Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) score, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score, and Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) score were all associated with one-year mortality after discharge. When these parameters were dichotomized, we discovered that those who were aged ≥90 years, had a LOS ≥ 12 days, an MNA score < 17, a CCI ≥ 2, and a previous admission history were all independently associated with one-year mortality using multiple cox regression analyses. By applying individual scores to these risk factors, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.691 with a cut-off value score ≧ 3 for one year mortality, 0.801 for within 30-day mortality, and 0.748 for within 90-day mortality. It is suggested that older hospitalized patients with varying risks of mortality may be stratified by a prediction model, with tailored planning being subsequently implemented.

The relationship between frailty, nutritional status, co-morbidity, CT-body composition and systemic inflammation in patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Frailty, determined by the Canadian Study of Health and Aging-Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), is strongly associated with clinical outcomes including mortality in patients with COVID-19. However, the relationship between frailty and other recognised prognostic factors including age, nutritional status, obesity, sarcopenia and systemic inflammation is poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between frailty and other prognostic domains, in patients admitted with COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients who presented to our institutions between 1st April 2020-6th July 2020 with confirmed COVID-19 were assessed for inclusion. Data collected included general demographic details, clinicopathological variables, CFS admission assessment, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), CT-BC measurements and markers of systemic inflammation.

RESULTS

106 patients met the study inclusion criteria. The majority of patients were aged ≥ 70 years (67%), male (53%) and frail (scoring > 3 on the CFS, 72%). The majority of patients were not malnourished (MUST 0, 58%), had ≥ 1 co-morbidity (87%), were sarcopenic (low SMI, 80%) and had systemic inflammation (mGPS ≥ 1, 81%, NLR > 5, 55%). On multivariate binary logistics regression analysis, age (p < 0.01), COPD (p < 0.05) and NLR (p < 0.05) remained independently associated with frailty. On univariate binary logistics regression, NLR (p < 0.05) was significantly associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Frailty was independently associated with age, co-morbidity, and systemic inflammation. The basis of the relationship between frailty and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 requires further study. Trial registration Registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04484545).

Postoperative Dehydration Is Associated with Frailty and Decreased Survival in Older Patients with Hip Fracture

BACKGROUND

Hyperosmolar dehydration (HD) is a risk factor for severe complications in hip fracture in older patients. However, evidence for recommending screening of dehydration is insufficient and its relation with frailty and mortality is unclear. We tested the hypothesis that postoperative HD is associated with frailty and increased mortality.

METHODS

We recruited 625 older (>65 years) patients surgically treated for hip fracture and co-managed by an orthogeriatric team over one year in 2017. Pre- and postoperative HD (serum osmolarity > 300 mmol/L) was diagnosed. Frailty and associated mortality risk were assessed by the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI).

RESULTS

The prevalence of preoperative HD was 20.4%. Compared with no-HD, MPI was similar in HD patients despite higher (p < 0.05) prevalence of polypharmacy, arterial hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and heart failure. After surgery the incidence of HD decreased to 16.5%, but increased (p = 0.003) in the MPI high-risk subgroup. Postoperative HD was associated with more complications and was an independent determinant of adjusted hospital length of stay (LOS) and of 60- to 365-days mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Older frail patients with hip fracture are prone to developing postoperative HD, which independently predicts prolonged hospital LOS and mortality. Systematically screening older patients for frailty and dehydration is advisable to customize hydration management in high-risk individuals.