The electrocardiogram in prediction of sudden death: Framingham Study experience

Electrocardiograms Do Not Detect Myocardial Ischemia in Patients With Williams Syndrome and Nonsyndromic Elastin Arteriopathy With Coronary Artery Stenosis

Coronary artery stenosis (CAS) may affect up to 27% of patients with Williams syndrome (WS), which may lead to myocardial ischemia. Patients with WS face a 25- to 100-fold greater risk of sudden cardiac death, frequently linked to anesthesia. Assessing CAS requires either imaging while under general anesthesia or intraoperative assessment, with the latter considered the gold standard. Our study aimed to identify electrocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial ischemia in patients with WS or nonsyndromic elastin arteriopathy and documented CAS. We retrospectively reviewed patients with WS/elastin arteriopathy who underwent supravalvar aortic stenosis surgery and CAS assessment from January 1, 2006 to April 30, 2021. A pediatric electrophysiologist, not aware of the patients' CAS status, reviewed their preoperative ECGs for markers of ischemia. We assessed associations of study parameters using Wilcoxon rank-sum and Fisher's exact tests. Of 34 patients, 62% were male, with a median age of 20 months (interquartile range: 8 to 34). CAS was present in 62% (21 of 34), 76% of whom (16 of 21) were male. There were no ECG indicators of myocardial ischemia in patients with CAS. In conclusion, CAS was present in >1/2 the children with WS/elastin arteriopathy who underwent repair of supravalvar aortic stenosis. CAS in WS/nonsyndromic elastin arteriopathy does not appear to exhibit typical ECG-detectable myocardial ischemia. ECGs are not a useful screening tool for CAS in WS/elastin arteriopathy. Given the high anesthesia-related cardiac arrest risk, other noninvasive indicators of CAS are needed.

Cardiovascular Changes Associated with Hypertensive Heart Disease and Aging

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide and account for more than 17.9 million deaths (World Health Organization report). Hypertension and aging are two major risk factors for the development of cardiac structural and functional abnormalities. Hypertension, or elevated blood pressure, if left untreated can result in myocardial hypertrophy leading to heart failure (HF). Left ventricular hypertrophy consequent to pressure overload is recognized as the most important predictor of congestive HF and sudden death. The pathological changes occurring during hypertensive heart disease are very complex and involve many cellular and molecular alterations. In contrast, the cardiac changes that occur with aging are a slow but life-long process and involve all of the structural components in the heart and vasculature. However, these structural changes in the cardiovascular system lead to alterations in overall cardiac physiology and function. The pace at which these pathophysiological changes occur varies between individuals owing to many genetic and environmental risk factors. This review highlights the molecular mechanisms of cardiac structural and functional alterations associated with hypertension and aging.

A Fortified Method to Screen and Detect Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Asymptomatic Hypertensive Adults: A Korean Retrospective, Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

Left ventricular (LV) mass is determined by the wall thickness and diameter. LV hypertrophy (LVH), the increase in LV mass, is usually screened with electrocardiography but is often insensitive. We tried to fortify the rule to detect LVH using cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) in chest X-ray and well-known risk factors besides electrocardiography.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study included asymptomatic hypertensive individuals aged ≥40 y who underwent voluntary checkups including echocardiography. Independent variables to explain LVH (LV mass index>115 g/m² for men and >95 g/m² for women calculated on echocardiography) were chosen among Sokolow-Lyon voltage amplitude (SLVA), CTR and cardiovascular risk factors by multiple logistic regression analysis. The diagnostic rule to detect LVH was made by summing up the rounded-off odds ratio of each independent variable and was validated using bootstrapping method.

Results

Among the 789 cases enrolled (202 females (25.6%), mean age 59.6±8.8 y), 168 (21.3%) had LVH. The diagnostic rule summed female, age≥65 y, BMI≥25 kg/m², SLVA≥35 mm, and CTR≥0.50 (scoring 1 per each). Its c-statistics was 0.700 (95% CI: 0.653, 0.747), significantly higher (p<0.001) than that of SLVA≥35 mm, 0.522 (95% CI: 0.472, 0.572). The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 61.9% and 72.1% for score≥2 and 30.4% and 92.9% for score≥3. The SLVA≥35 mm criteria showed sensitivity of 12.5% and specificity of 91.9%.

Conclusions

The rule to sum up the number of the risk factors of female, age≥65 y, BMI≥25 kg/m², SLVA≥35 mm, and CTR≥0.50 may be a better diagnostic tool for screening LVH, than the electrocardiography-only criteria, at the score≥2.

Distinguishing between those dying suddenly or not suddenly from coronary heart disease: long-term prospective results from the Northwick Park Heart Study

AIM

To establish whether ECG findings are associated with subsequent risk of sudden death from coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Potential risk factors for CHD were measured at entry to the first Northwick Park Heart Study of 2167 men. ECG findings were coded as high or low risk for CHD according to definitions in the Minnesota code. Sudden or non-sudden deaths were defined as occurring in less than or more than 24 hours, respectively. The only factor independently associated with sudden death among the 262 men dying of CHD was high-risk ECG. Of 184 sudden CHD deaths, 34 men (18.5%) had had high-risk ECGs at entry to the study compared with 5 (6.4%) of 78 men who experienced non-sudden deaths (adjusted OR 3.94 (95% CI 1.33 to 11.67)) (p=0.006). Findings were also compared among all 2167 men, where high-risk ECGs were again associated with sudden death. T-wave changes were the main abnormalities associated with a high risk of sudden death.

CONCLUSIONS

In a group of men who had not previously experienced major episodes of CHD but who subsequently died from it, there was strong evidence that high-risk ECG changes, mainly T-wave abnormalities, differentiated between those who later died sudden deaths and those who survived for >24 hours.

Improvements in ECG accuracy for diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in obesity

OBJECTIVES

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most commonly used tool to screen for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and yet current diagnostic criteria are insensitive in modern increasingly overweight society. We propose a simple adjustment to improve diagnostic accuracy in different body weights and improve the sensitivity of this universally available technique.

METHODS

Overall, 1295 participants were included-821 with a wide range of body mass index (BMI 17.1-53.3 kg/m(2)) initially underwent cardiac magnetic resonance evaluation of anatomical left ventricular (LV) axis, LV mass and 12-lead surface ECG in order to generate an adjustment factor applied to the Sokolow-Lyon criteria. This factor was then validated in a second cohort (n=520, BMI 15.9-63.2 kg/m(2)).

RESULTS

When matched for LV mass, the combination of leftward anatomical axis deviation and increased BMI resulted in a reduction of the Sokolow-Lyon index, by 4 mm in overweight and 8 mm in obesity. After adjusting for this in the initial cohort, the sensitivity of the Sokolow-Lyon index increased (overweight: 12.8% to 30.8%, obese: 3.1% to 27.2%) approaching that seen in normal weight (37.8%). Similar results were achieved in the validation cohort (specificity increased in overweight: 8.3% to 39.1%, obese: 9.4% to 25.0%) again approaching normal weight (39.0%). Importantly, specificity remained excellent (>93.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusting the Sokolow-Lyon index for BMI (overweight +4 mm, obesity +8 mm) improves the diagnostic accuracy for detecting LVH. As the ECG, worldwide, remains the most widely used screening tool for LVH, implementing these findings should translate into significant clinical benefit.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and cardiovascular disease risk prediction and reclassification in blacks and whites: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a major independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) survival and is more prevalent in blacks than whites. In a large biracial population, we evaluated the ability of electrocardiography (ECG)-determined LVH (ECG-LVH) to reclassify CVD/coronary heart disease (CHD) events beyond traditional risk factors in blacks and whites.

METHODS

The analysis included 14,489 participants (mean age 54 ± 5.7 years; 43.5% men; 26% black) from the ARIC cohort, with baseline (1987-1989) ECG, followed up for 10 years. Predicted risk for incident CVD and CHD were estimated using the 10-year Pooled Cohort and Framingham risk equations (base models 1A/1B), respectively. Models 2A and 2B included respective base model plus LVH by "any" of 10 traditional ECG-LVH criteria. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was calculated, and the distribution of risk was compared using models 2A and 2B versus models 1A and 1B, respectively.

RESULTS

There were 792 (5.5%) 10-year Pooled Cohort CVD events and 690 (4.8%) 10-year Framingham CHD events. Left ventricular hypertrophy defined by any criteria was associated with CVD and CHD events (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.62 [1.38-1.90] and 1.56 [1.32-1.86], respectively]. Left ventricular hypertrophy did not significantly reclassify or improve C statistic in models 2A/B (C statistics 0.767/0.719; NRI = 0.001 [P = not significant]), compared with the base models 1A/B (C statistics 0.770/0.718), respectively. No racial interactions were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of black and white participants, ECG-LVH was associated with CVD/CHD risk but did not significantly improve CVD and CHD events risk prediction beyond the new Pooled Cohort and most used Framingham risk equations in blacks or whites.

Prognostic usefulness of left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiography in patients with atrial fibrillation (from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy Study)

It is unknown whether left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) diagnosis by electrocardiography improves risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the prognostic impact of LVH diagnosis by electrocardiography in a large sample of anticoagulated patients with AF included in the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy (RE-LY) Study. We defined electrographic LVH (ECG-LVH) by strain pattern or Cornell voltage (R wave in aVL plus S wave in V3) >2.0 mV (women) or >2.4 mV (men). LVH prevalence was 22.7%. During a median follow-up of 2.0 years, 303 patients developed a stroke, 778 died (497 from cardiovascular causes), and 140 developed a myocardial infarction. LVH was associated with a greater risk of stroke (1.99% vs 1.32% per year, hazard ratio [HR] 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18 to 1.93, p <0.001), cardiovascular death (4.52% vs 1.80% per year, HR 2.56, 95% CI 2.14 to 3.06, p <0.0001), all-cause death (6.03% vs 3.11% per year, HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.68 to 2.26, p <0.0001), and myocardial infarction (1.11% vs 0.55% per year, HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.92, p <0.0001). In multivariate analysis, the prognostic value of LVH was additive to CHA2DS2-VASc score and other covariates. The category-free net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement increased significantly after adding LVH to multivariate models. In conclusion, our study demonstrates for the first time that ECG-LVH, a simple and easily accessible prognostic indicator, improves risk stratification in anticoagulated patients with AF.

Should axis deviation or atrial enlargement be categorised as abnormal in young athletes? The athlete's electrocardiogram: time for re-appraisal of markers of pathology

AIMS

The 2010 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines for electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation in athletes are associated with a relatively high false positive rate and warrant modification to improve the specificity without compromising sensitivity. The aim of this study was to investigate whether non-specific anomalies such as axis deviation and atrial enlargement in isolation require further assessment in highly trained young athletes.

METHOD AND RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2011, 2533 athletes aged 14-35 years were investigated with 12-lead ECG and echocardiography. Electrocardiograms were analysed for non-training-related (Group 2) changes according to the 2010 ESC guidelines. Results were compared with 9997 asymptomatic controls. Of the 2533 athletes, 329 (13%) showed Group 2 ECG changes. Isolated axis deviation and isolated atrial enlargement comprised 42.6% of all Group 2 changes. Athletes revealed a slightly higher prevalence of these anomalies compared with controls (5.5 vs. 4.4%; P = 0.023). Echocardiographic evaluation of athletes and controls with isolated axis deviation or atrial enlargement (n = 579) failed to identify any major structural or functional abnormalities. Exclusion of axis deviation or atrial enlargement reduced the false positive rate from 13 to 7.5% and improved specificity from 90 to 94% with a minimal reduction in sensitivity (91-89.5%).

CONCLUSION

Isolated axis deviation and atrial enlargement comprise a high burden of Group 2 changes in athletes and do not predict underlying structural cardiac disease. Exclusion of these anomalies from current ESC guidelines would improve specificity and cost-effectiveness of pre-participation screening with ECG.

Extreme sacrifice: sudden cardiac death in the US Fire Service

Firefighting is a hazardous profession which has claimed on average the lives of 105 US firefighters per year for the past decade. The leading cause of line-of-duty mortality is sudden cardiac death, which accounts for approximately 45% of all firefighter duty-related fatalities. Strenuous physical activity, emotional stress, and environmental pollutants all strain the cardiovascular system, and each can increase the risk of sudden cardiac events in susceptible individuals. Sudden cardiac death is more likely to occur during or shortly after emergency duties such as fire suppression, despite the fact that these duties comprise a relatively small proportion of firefighters' annual duties. Additionally, cardiac events are more likely to occur in firefighters who possess an excess of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease along with underlying atherosclerosis and/or structural heart disease. In this review, we propose a theoretical model for the interaction between underlying cardiovascular disease in firefighters and the multifactorial physiological strain of firefighting.

Electrocardiographic predictors of sudden cardiac death in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has been associated with increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), and improvements in risk stratification methodology are warranted.

METHODS

We evaluated electrocardiographic intervals as potential markers of SCD risk in LVH. Corrected QT, QRS, and JT intervals were evaluated in consecutive cases with SCD and LVH from the ongoing Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death study who underwent a 12-lead electrocardiogram (EKG) and echocardiogram prior to and unrelated to the SCD event. Comparisons of age, gender, body mass index, LV ejection fraction, and EKG intervals together with clinical conditions (hypertension and diabetes) were conducted with geographically matched controls that had coronary artery disease but no history of ventricular arrhythmias or cardiac arrest. LVH was determined using the modified American Society of Echocardiography equation for LV mass. Independent samples t-test, Pearson's chi-square test, and multiple logistic regression were used for statistical comparisons.

RESULTS

Of the 109 cases and 49 controls who met study criteria, age, gender, and comorbidities were similar among cases and controls. The mean LV mass index was not significantly different in cases compared to controls. However mean QTc (470.6 ± 53.6 ms vs 440.7 ± 38.7 ms; P < 0.0001) and QRS duration (113.6 ± 30.0 ms vs 104.9 ± 18.7 ms; P = 0.03) were significantly higher in cases than controls. In logistic regression analysis, prolonged QTc was the only EKG interval significantly associated with SCD (OR 1.72 [1.23-2.40]).

CONCLUSION

Prolonged QTc was independently associated with SCD among subjects with LVH and merits further evaluation as a predictor of SCD in LVH.

Risk markers of sudden cardiac death in standard 12-lead electrocardiograms

The annual incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is estimated at 1 per 1,000 for adults over the age of 35 years, and 1 per 100,000 for adolescents and young adults. Although the overall incidence of unexpected SCD among previously healthy persons is small, the emotional impact of these events is devastating. The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been used as a risk assessment tool from healthy occupational applicants and athletes to patients with cardiovascular disorders. The ECG is also routinely recorded in the majority of patients hospitalized for non-cardiovascular causes. Thus, it is a widely used tool intended for identification of unsuspected heart disease generally, as well as for diagnosing specific disorders predisposing to fatal arrhythmias in subjects who have not experienced such events but who are at increased risk. Recognition of specific ECG features is of importance for prevention of SCD in asymptomatic persons. The purpose of this review is to catalog the disorders associated with SCD that may be reflected in 12-lead ECGs seen in office or hospital practices and to discuss their prevalence and the magnitude of risks. The focus is on ECG findings suggesting increased SCD risk among the asymptomatic subjects without previously diagnosed cardiac disease.

QRS duration predicts sudden cardiac death in hypertensive patients undergoing intensive medical therapy: the LIFE study

AIMS

To determine whether QRS duration predicts sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy and treated hypertension.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Over 4.8 +/- 0.9 years follow-up of 9193 hypertensive patients with electrocardiographic evidence of LVH who were treated with atenolol- or losartan-based regimens, 178 patients (1.9%) suffered SCD. In multivariable analysis including randomized treatment, changing blood pressure over time, and baseline differences between patients with and without SCD, QRS duration was independently predictive of SCD (HR per 10 ms increase = 1.22, P < 0.001). Baseline QRS duration remained a significant predictor of SCD even after controlling for the presence or absence of left bundle branch block (HR = 1.17, P = 0.001) and for changes in ECG LVH severity over the course of the study (HR = 1.16, P = 0.017).

CONCLUSION

In the setting of aggressive antihypertensive therapy, prolonged QRS duration identifies hypertensive patients at higher risk for SCD, even after controlling for left bundle branch block, other known risk factors for SCD, and changes in blood pressure and severity of left ventricular hypertrophy.

Prognosis following acute myocardial infarction in patients with ST-T abnormalities on electrocardiograms obtained before myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Many studies have examined the relationship between prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) and electrocardiographic (ECG) findings at the time of or after the onset of MI. However, little work has been done concerning the association between ECG findings obtained before the onset of MI (pre-MI) and the prognosis after MI.

HYPOTHESIS

The study was undertaken to determine whether ST-T segment and T-wave morphology on pre-MI ECGs provides useful information for prognosis after acute MI.

METHODS

Pre-MI ECGs of 212 patients recorded within the 6-month period before MI were studied for the presence of high-voltage R waves, ST-segment depression, and negative T waves. The Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis were used to determine the relationship between these ECG findings and in-hospital cardiac death.

RESULTS

In-hospital cardiac death occurred in 32 (15.1%) patients. The in-hospital mortality rate was 38.5% (5/13) for the patients with high-voltage R waves, 54.5% (6/11) for patients with ST-segment depression, and 45.6% (15/33) for patients with negative T waves. The in-hospital mortality rate was 13.6% (27/199) for patients without high-voltage R waves, 12.9% (26/201) for patients without ST-segment depression, and 9.5% (17/179) for those without negative T waves. Multivariate analysis identified age and negative T waves as independent risk factors for cardiac death, with a hazard ratio for negative T waves of 3.1.

CONCLUSION

Negative T waves on pre-MI ECGs represent an independent predictor of in-hospital cardiac death in patients with MI.

The epidemiology of non-traumatic prehospital sudden death in Macau

OBJECTIVE

To understand the epidemiology of non-traumatic prehospital sudden death (NPSD) in Macau, and to discuss potential diseases related to NPSD.

METHODS

We analysed the epidemiological characteristics of 605 NPSD cases occurred between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2005 in Macau. Four hundred NPSD victims' medical records were reviewed to collect information regarding associated diseases.

RESULTS

NPSD was more common in males than females (56.5% versus 43.5%). Male patients were 7.9 years younger than female patients (68.8+/-17.7 versus 76.7+/-16.7, p=0.000). NPSD had a higher incidence in the months December to March. There were 21.8 NPSD cases per month on an average during this period. NPSD occurred more frequently during daylight hours. The following diagnoses were frequently found in the patients' medical records: hypertension (39.5%), cerebral vascular accident (18.5%), type 2 diabetes mellitus (17.8%), congestive heart failure (13.3%), chronic renal failure (11.3%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (11%). Coronary artery disease was diagnosed in only 9.2% in all NPSD cases.

CONCLUSIONS

NPSD has similar epidemiological characters with sudden cardiac death. Most NPSD should be presumed to be of cardiac aetiology. Chronic diseases that affect cardiovascular system have close relations with NPSD. Coronary artery disease in these patients should be recognised early.

Subclinical coronary atherosclerosis and resting ECG abnormalities in an unselected general population

OBJECTIVES

Exposure to cardiovascular (CV) risk factors may result in coronary atherosclerosis and myocardial disease, which is reflected in the extent of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and resting ECG abnormalities, respectively. We studied the association of CAC with ECG abnormalities in a general population without myocardial infarction or revascularization.

METHODS

The total cohort of 4814 subjects (45-75 years) were randomly selected from the general population for the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, an ongoing study designed to assess the prognostic value of modern risk stratification methods. In addition to measuring standard risk factors, digitized resting ECGs and the EBT-based Agatston score were obtained. Subjects were separated into those without (n=1929) and with CV disease (CVD) or treated risk factors (tRF) (n=2558).

RESULTS

In both groups, a positive CAC-score was more frequent and CAC-scores were higher in men and women with ECG abnormalities as compared to those with normal ECGs (p<0.05 each). In persons without CVD/tRF, a CAC > or =75th percentile was more frequent in those with LVH (42.4%) and QTc >440 ms (34.2%) as compared to normal ECGs (23.0%, p<0.01 for both). In persons with CVD/tRF, a CAC-score > or =75th percentile was found in subjects with A-Fib (46.3%), borderline-LVH (39.1%), ECG signs of MI (40.5%) and major ECG abnormalities (40.3%) versus 31.2% in those with normal ECGs (p<0.03 for all). In multivariate analysis, LVH (p=0.025) and major ECG abnormalities (p=0.04) remained independently associated with CAC in subjects without and with CVD/tRF, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ECG-based evidence of myocardial disease is often associated with an elevated CAC burden, suggesting a link between epicardial and myocardial manifestations of risk factor exposure. The association of CAC burden with different ECG abnormalities in different clinical groups may have implications for the interpretation of the resting ECG and CAC burden in risk stratification.

Computerized ST depression analysis improves prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the strong heart study

BACKGROUND

Nonspecific ST depression assessed by standard visual Minnesota coding (MC) has been demonstrated to predict risk. Although computer analysis has been applied to digital ECGs for MC, the prognostic value of computerized MC and computerized ST depression analyses have not been examined in relation to standard visual MC.

METHODS

The predictive value of nonspecific ST depression as determined by visual and computerized MC codes 4.2 or 4.3 was compared with computer-measured ST depression >or= 50 microV in 2,127 American Indian participants in the first Strong Heart Study examination. Computerized MC and ST depression were determined using separate computerized-ECG analysis programs and visual MC was performed by an experienced ECG core laboratory.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MC 4.2 or 4.3 by computer was higher than by visual analysis (6.4 vs 4.4%, P < 0.001). After mean follow-up of 3.7 +/- 0.9 years, there were 73 cardiovascular deaths and 227 deaths from all causes. In univariate Cox analyses, visual MC (relative risk [RR] 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-9.1), computerized MC (RR 6.0, 95% CI 3.5-10.3), and computer-measured ST depression (RR 7.6, 95% CI 4.5-12.9) were all significant predictors of cardiovascular death. In separate multivariate Cox regression analyses that included age, sex, diabetes, HDL and LDL cholesterol, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, microalbuminuria, smoking, and the presence of coronary heart disease, computerized MC (RR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6-5.6) and computer-measured ST depression (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.7-5.7), but not visual MC, remained significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality. When both computerized MC and computer-measured ST depression were entered into the multivariate Cox regression, each variable provided independent risk stratification (RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.4, and RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.4, respectively). Similarly, computerized MC and computer-measured ST depression, but not visual MC, were independent predictors of all-cause mortality after controlling for standard risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer analysis of the ECG, using computerized MC and computer-measured ST depression, provides independent and additive risk stratification for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, and improves risk stratification compared with visual MC. These findings support the use of routine computer analysis of ST depression on the rest ECG for assessment of risk and suggest that computerized MC can replace visual MC for this purpose.

Sudden unexpected cardiac death as a function of time since the detection of electrocardiographic and clinical risk factors in apparently healthy men: the Manitoba Follow-Up Study, 1948 to 2004

PURPOSE

As the first and only manifestation of ischemic heart disease, sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) is a serious clinical and epidemiological concern. Prospective population studies permit the identification of risk factors for SUCD. Knowledge of the short-and long-term risks for SUCD are key to understanding the basis of any intervention. The present paper explores the effect of time since the detection of factors on the risk for SUCD.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The Manitoba Follow-Up Study is a longitudinal, prospective study of 3983 originally healthy young men who have been followed with routine medical examinations since 1948. During 56 years of follow-up, SUCD occurred in 171 men. This analysis examined 21 possible risk factors for SUCD, including clinical findings, social variables and electrocardiographic abnormalities. Time-dependent covariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate age-adjusted relative risks for SUCD. In multivariate models, the relative risk of SUCD was estimated as a function of time since the documentation of each risk factor.

RESULTS

Excess alcohol consumption and T wave changes were associated with a high short-term risk for SUCD. Arterial hypertension and ST/T changes had sustained excess risk over both the short and long term. Newly developed left bundle branch block was a highly significant short-term risk that diminished with time.

CONCLUSION

These findings add new information for the clinical management of risk factors. The identification of time since the detection of these risk factors is an important consideration to reduce SUCD.

The ischemic electrocardiogram: A harbinger for ischemic heart disease independent of the blood pressure level. The Copenhagen City Heart Study

Information is limited on the co-existence and prognostic association of the ischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) and blood pressure. Prospectively collected data sets from 28,118 examinations in the Copenhagen City Heart Study were analyzed for cardiac morbidity and mortality for a 5.9-year follow-up. The prognosis of the ECG, independently of blood pressure, was examined. The Cox proportional hazard model was employed to evaluate the prognostic implications of ECG findings and relative risk was adjusted for age and multivariately adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. End-points were (1) fatal and non-fatal ischemic heart disease (IHD) events and (2) cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. During a total follow-up period of 166,471 person years (mean: 5.9 years) 1.481 IHD events were recorded and 1.051 CVD deaths. The relative risk of an ischemic ECG was independent of the blood pressure level. The multivariately adjusted relative risk for fatal and non-fatal IHD for the ischemic ECG was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.39-2.09, p < 0.001) in women, and 1.96 (95% CI: 1.67-2.30, p < 0.001) in men, and for CVD mortality 1.71 (95% CI: 1.34-2.17, p < 0.001) in women and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.74-2.49, p < 0.001) in men. An ECG with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and ST-depression was the finding with the highest risk for future events. LVH by ECG voltage-only was associated with no statistically increased risk, except for men treated for arterial hypertension.

Risk factors for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the Reykjavik Study

AIMS

To examine risk factors for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the Reykjavik Study, a long-term, prospective, population-based cohort study that started in 1967.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 1987 to 1996, 137 men and 44 women out of the 8006 men and 9435 women in the study sustained out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to cardiac causes. Determinants included coronary artery disease (CAD), its classical risk factors, and age, body mass index (BMI), heart rate, cardiomegaly, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Electrocardiograms (ECGs) were examined for various abnormalities. Significance was determined by Cox regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, the risk in men was significantly associated with age, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol, current smoking, and previous diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI). In women, the risk was associated with diastolic blood pressure, elevated levels of cholesterol and triglycerides, and increased voltage on ECG. Increased BMI was inversely related to women's risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

CONCLUSION

In this prospective, population-based cohort study previous MI and the classical risk factors for CAD significantly increased the risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, the endpoint of this study. Increased voltage on ECG additionally increased women's risk.

Electrocardiographic arrhythmia risk testing

Among the most compelling challenges facing cardiologists today is identification of which patients are at highest risk for sudden death. Automatic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators are now indicated in many of these patients, yet the role of noninvasive risk stratification in classifying patients at high risk is not well defined. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the various electrocardiographic (ECG) techniques that appear to have potential in assessment of risk for arrhythmia. The resting ECG (premature ventricular contractions, QRS duration, damage scores, QT dispersion, and ST segment and T wave abnormalities), T wave alternans, late potentials identified on signal-averaged ECGs, and heart rate variability are explored. Unequivocal evidence to support the widespread use of any single noninvasive technique is lacking; further research in this area is needed. It is likely that a combination of risk evaluation techniques will have the greatest predictive power in enabling identification of patients most likely to benefit from device therapy.

QRS duration and QT interval predict mortality in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy: the Losartan Intervention for Endpoint Reduction in Hypertension Study

Left ventricular hypertrophy is a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, including sudden cardiac death. Experimentally, left ventricular hypertrophy delays ventricular conduction and prolongs action potential duration. Electrocardiographic QRS duration and QT interval measures reflect these changes, but whether these measures can further stratify risk in patients with electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy is unknown. We measured the QRS duration and QT intervals from the baseline 12-lead electrocardiograms in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint Reduction in Hypertension (LIFE) study, which included hypertensive patients with electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy randomized to either losartan-based or atenolol-based treatment to lower blood pressure. In the present study, we related study baseline electrocardiographic measures to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. There were 5429 patients (male 45.8%; mean age 66+/-7 years) included in the present analyses. After a mean follow-up of 4.9+/-0.8 years, there were 417 deaths from all causes, including 214 cardiovascular deaths. In separate univariate Cox regression analyses, QRS duration and several QT measures were significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. However, in multivariate Cox analyses including all electrocardiographic measures and adjusting for other risk factors as well as treatment strategy, only QRS duration and maximum rate-adjusted QT(apex) interval remained as significant independent predictors of cardiovascular (P=0.022 and P=0.037, respectively) and all-cause mortality (P=0.038 and P=0.002, respectively). In conclusion, in a hypertensive risk population identified by electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, increased QRS duration and maximum QT(apex) interval can further stratify mortality risk even in the setting of effective blood pressure-lowering treatment.

Symptomatic aortic stenosis: does systemic hypertension play an additional role?

Hypertension and aortic stenosis represent 2 different models of left ventricular systolic overload. Previous studies have observed different remodeling patterns in these conditions. There is, however, little information about patients with coexisting aortic stenosis and hypertension. Echocardiography was performed in 193 consecutive patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis (113 males, 80 females; mean age, 68+/-9 years). The prevalence of systemic hypertension was assessed. Left ventricular mass index and relative wall thickness were measured from M-mode echocardiography. Four different left ventricular remodeling patterns were identified: normal remodeling, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy. A history of hypertension was present in 62 patients (32%), whereas 131 patients were normotensive. No significant differences were found between hypertensive and normotensive patients with respect to age, male/female ratio, mean New York Heart Association class, distribution of symptoms, left ventricular systolic and diastolic function, and remodeling patterns. In hypertensive patients, however, symptoms were present with larger aortic valve areas and lower stroke work loss. Systemic hypertension is not rare in patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis (32% in our series). Left ventricular remodeling patterns are quite similar in hypertensive and normotensive aortic stenosis. Our results suggest that symptoms of aortic stenosis develop with larger valve area and lower stroke work loss in hypertensive patients, probably because of the additional overload due to hypertension itself. It could suggest that in patients with coexisting hypertension and aortic stenosis, hypertension should be treated more aggressively to delay the occurrence of symptoms, and these patients should be followed-up more closely.

Relation of QT interval and QT dispersion to regression of echocardiographic and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in hypertensive patients: the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint Reduction (LIFE) study

BACKGROUND

In hypertensive patients, both echocardiographic and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) increase the risk of sudden death, possibly in part because of LVH-induced proarrhythmic repolarization changes. Experimentally, regression of LVH normalizes ventricular electrophysiology.

METHODS

To assess the relation of regression of LVH to changes in electrocardiographic measures of ventricular repolarization, we studied 317 hypertensive (61.2% men, mean age 65 +/- 7 years) participants in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint Reduction (LIFE) study with electrocardiographic evidence of LVH, at study baseline, and after 1 year of blood pressure-lowering treatment with losartan or atenolol and hydrochlorothiatzide as the first adjunct therapy if needed to reach target blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg. As indexes of LVH, we used echocardiographically determined LV mass as well as the Sokolow-Lyon and Cornell voltages from the electrocardiogram. QT interval duration and QT dispersion from the 12-lead electrocardiogram were used as ventricular repolarization measures.

RESULTS

By using tertiles of LV mass change and adjusting for the difference in treatment (losartan or atenolol), shortening of the rate-adjusted QT intervals as well as reduction in QT(apex) dispersion were observed in the tertile showing the greatest decrease in LV mass but not in the tertile without substantial changes in LV mass despite a significant reduction in blood pressure. Similar results were obtained with the use of Sokolow-Lyon and Cornell voltage change tertiles.

CONCLUSIONS

In hypertensive patients with electrocardiographic evidence of LVH, regression of echocardiographically determined LV mass and electrocardiographic indexes of LVH may partially reverse the LVH-induced proarrhythmic repolarization changes. This may have a beneficial impact on the increased incidence of sudden death in these patients.

The epidemiology of out-of-hospital 'sudden' cardiac arrest

It is difficult to assemble data from an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest since there is often lack of objective information. The true incidence of sudden cardiac death out-of-hospital is not known since far from all of these patients are attended by emergency medical services. The incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest increases with age and is more common among men. Among patients who die, the probability of having a fatal event outside hospital decreases with age; i. e. younger patients tend to more often die unexpectedly and outside hospital. Among the different initial arrhythmias, ventricular fibrillation is the most common among patients with cardiac aetiology. The true distribution of initial arrhythmias is not known since several minutes most often elapse between collapse and rhythm assessment. Most patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have a cardiac aetiology. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests most frequently occur in the patient's home, but the prognosis is shown to be better when they occur in a public place. Witnessed arrest, ventricular fibrillation as initial arrhythmia and cardiopulmonary resuscitation are important predictors for immediate survival. In the long-term perspective, cardiac arrest in connection with acute myocardial infarction, high left ventricular ejection fraction, moderate age, absence of other heart failure signs and no history of myocardial infarction promotes better prognosis. Still there is much to learn about time trends, the influence of patient characteristics, comorbidity and hospital treatment among patients with prehospital cardiac arrest.

Predictors of sudden cardiac death in never previously treated patients with essential hypertension: long-term follow-up

Increased QT dispersion has been associated with ventricular arrhythmia and sudden death in a variety of cardiac disorders. Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has also been associated with increased incidence of sudden cardiac death in patients with essential hypertension. Furthermore, patients with essential hypertension, particularly those with LVH, are more likely to develop ventricular arrhythmias than are the normal population. The relationship between LVH, QT dispersion, complex ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death in previously untreated patients over long-term follow-up in hypertension has not been reported before and is the purpose of this study. Fifty-nine adult subjects with essential hypertension, who had never been previously on antihypertensive treatment were followed up for a total of 119.2 +/- 26.2 months. QTc (corrected QT), blood pressure, electrocardiograms, and 24-h Holter ECG recordings were performed in all patients at the time of entry to the study. Ventricular arrhythmias were classified using a modified Lown's scoring system. During the follow-up period death occurred in 12 cases (20%) of which only six (10%) deaths were sudden. The findings of this study indicate that LVH and complex ventricular arrhythmias (Lown's score > or =3) are the only significant predictors of sudden death. Although patients who died suddenly had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures and greater QTc dispersion compared to surviving patients, this difference was statistically not significant. Similarly, when those who died suddenly were compared to those non-cardiac deaths, LVH and complex ventricular arrhythmias were the only significant predictors of sudden death. In spite of increased QTc dispersion in hypertensive patients, this finding was not associated with increased risk of sudden death and only LVH and high grade ventricular arrhythmias identified hypertensive patients at risk of sudden cardiac death over a 10-year follow-up period.

Relation of QT interval and QT dispersion to echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and geometric pattern in hypertensive patients. The LIFE study. The Losartan Intervention For Endpoint Reduction

OBJECTIVE

In hypertensive patients, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) predicts increased mortality, in part due to an increased incidence of sudden death. Repolarization-related arrhythmogenesis may be an important mechanism of sudden death in hypertensive patients with LVH. Increased QT interval and QT dispersion are electrocardiographic (ECG) measures of ventricular repolarization, and also risk markers for ventricular tachyarrhythmias. We assessed the relation of QT intervals and QT dispersion to echocardiographically determined left ventricular (LV) mass and geometry in a large population of hypertensive patients with ECG evidence of LVH.

METHODS

QT intervals and QT dispersion were determined from baseline 12-lead ECGs in 577 (57% male; mean age 65 +/- 7 years) participants in the LIFE study. LV mass index (LVMI) and geometric pattern were determined by echocardiography and QT interval duration and QT dispersion were assessed in relation to gender-specific LVMI quartiles.

RESULTS

In both genders, increasing LVMI was associated with longer rate-adjusted QT intervals. QT dispersion measures showed a weaker association with LVMI quartiles. Both concentric and eccentric LVH were associated with increased QT interval duration and QT dispersion. These relations remained significant after controlling for relevant clinical variables.

CONCLUSIONS

In hypertensive patients with ECG evidence of LVH, increased LVMI and LVH are associated with a prolonged QT interval and increased QT dispersion. These findings suggest that an increased vulnerability to repolarization-related ventricular arrhythmias might in part explain the increased risk of sudden death in hypertensive patients with increased LV mass.

An evidence-based review of the resting electrocardiogram as a screening technique for heart disease

Given renewed interest in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, we comprehensively reviewed the utility of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for screening considering the seminal epidemiologic studies. It appears that conventional risk factors relate to long-term risk, while ECG abnormalities are better predictors of short-term risk. For individual ECG abnormalities as well as for pooled categories of ECG abnormalities, the sensitivity of the ECG for future events was too low for it to be practical as a screening tool. This almost certainly relates to the low prevalence of these abnormalities. However, all ECG abnormalities increase with age and pre-test risk. Also screening with the ECG is of minimal cost and likely to decrease further as stand-alone machines are replaced by integration into personal computers (PC). Another potential impact on performing screening ECGs would be distribution and availability of digitized ECG data via the World Wide Web. For clinical utility of ECG data, comparison with previous ECGs can be critical but is currently limited. PC based ECG systems could very easily replace many of the ECG machines in use that only have paper output. PC-ECG systems would also permit interaction with computerized medical information systems, facilitate emailing and faxing of ECGs as well as storage at a centralized web-server. Web-enabled ECG recorders similar to the new generation of home appliances could follow this quick PC solution. A serious goal for the medical industry should be to end the morass of proprietary ECG digital formats and follow a standardized format. This could lead to a network of web-servers from which every patient's ECGs would be available. Such a situation could have a dramatic effect on the advisability of performing screening ECGs.

Prediction of sudden cardiac death by fractal analysis of heart rate variability in elderly subjects

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that abnormal scaling characteristics of heart rate (HR) predict sudden cardiac death in a random population of elderly subjects.

BACKGROUND

An abnormality in the short-term fractal scaling properties of HR has been observed to be related to a risk of life-threatening arrhythmias among patients with advanced heart diseases. The predictive power of altered short-term scaling properties of HR in general populations is unknown.

METHODS

A random sample of 325 subjects, age 65 years or older, who had a comprehensive risk profiling from clinical evaluation, laboratory tests and 24-h Holter recordings were followed up for 10 years. Heart rate dynamics, including conventional and fractal scaling measures of HR variability, were analyzed.

RESULTS

At 10 years of follow-up, 164 subjects had died. Seventy-one subjects had died of a cardiac cause, and 29 deaths were defined as sudden cardiac deaths. By univariate analysis, a reduced short-term fractal scaling exponent predicted the occurrence of cardiac death (relative risk [RR] 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 3.2, p < 0.001) and provided even stronger prediction of sudden cardiac death (RR 4.1, 95% CI, 2.5 to 6.6, p < 0.001). After adjusting for other predictive variables in a multivariate analysis, reduced exponent value remained as an independent predictor of sudden cardiac death (RR 4.3, 95% CI, 2.0 to 9.2, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Altered short-term fractal scaling properties of HR indicate an increased risk for cardiac mortality, particularly sudden cardiac death, in the random population of elderly subjects.

Left ventricular function, cardiac dysrhythmias, atrial activation, and volumes in nondipper hypertensive individuals with left ventricular hypertrophy

BACKGROUND

Arrhythmic patterns and left ventricular geometric adaptations to pressure overload were investigated in 76 patients with untreated borderline-to-moderate sustained essential hypertension studied by 2-dimensional and M-mode echocardiography, 12-lead, Holter, and signal-averaged electrocardiography, and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sixty-two age- and sex-matched normal adults were chosen for data comparison. Hypertrophic hypertensive patients were subdivided into 2 subgroups: 44 patients with nocturnal blood pressure reduction (dippers) and 32 patients without it (nondippers). Common afterload and diastolic function indexes were found to be lower in combined nondipper and dipper groups, but only fractional shortening decreased in nondippers. The number of premature atrial and ventricular contractions per hour was high in dippers and nondippers, with no statistically significant differences between them; atrial and ventricular complex dysrhythmias were similar. Signal-averaged electrocardiography showed a prolonged P-wave duration in dipper and nondipper patients with high atrial volumes but no late ventricular potentials and no difference in quantitative P-wave analysis. Left atrial volumes, P-wave duration, and premature atrial contractions were found to be positively linked to left ventricular hypertrophy. In nondipper patients a linear correlation was observed between left atrial volume and P-wave duration, although supraventricular ectopic activity was connected to left atrial volume enlargement both in dipper and nondipper patients.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that the nondipper pattern is not linked to a worse arrhythmogenic substrate; only atrial volume increase may be related to significant supraventricular activity and prolonged atrial activation in nondipper patients, but late ventricular potentials are uncommon in hypertrophic hypertensive patients.

Prognostic value of a new electrocardiographic method for diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in essential hypertension

OBJECTIVES

We tested the prognostic value of a new electrocardiographic (ECG) method (Perugia score) for diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in essential hypertension and compared it with five standard methods (Cornell voltage, Framingham criterion, Romhilt-Estes point score, left ventricular strain, Sokolow-Lyon voltage).

BACKGROUND

Several standard ECG methods for assessment of LVH are used in the clinical setting, but a comparative prognostic assessment is lacking.

METHODS

A total of 1,717 white hypertensive subjects (mean age 52 years; 51% men) were prospectively followed up for up to 10 years (mean 3.3).

RESULTS

At entry, the prevalence of LVH was 17.8% (Perugia score), 9.1% (Cornell), 3.9% (Framingham), 5.2% (Romhilt-Estes), 6.4% (strain) and 13.1% (Sokolow-Lyon). During follow-up there were 159 major cardiovascular morbid events (33 fatal). The event rate was higher in the subjects with than in those without LVH (all p < 0.001) according to all methods except the Sokolow-Lyon method. By multivariate analysis, an independent association between LVH and cardiovascular disease risk was maintained by the Perugia score (hazard ratio [HR] 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5 to 2.8) and the Framingham (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.2), Romhilt-Estes (HR 2.63, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.1) and strain methods (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.2). The Perugia score showed the highest population-attributable risk for cardiovascular events, accounting for 15.6% of all cases, whereas the Framingham, Romhilt-Estes and strain methods accounted for 3.0%, 7.4% and 6.8% of all events, respectively. LVH diagnosed by the Perugia score was also associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 4.21, 95% CI 2.1 to 8.7), with a population-attributable risk of 37.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

The Perugia score carried the highest population-attributable risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality compared with classic methods for detection of LVH. Traditional interpretation of standard electrocardiography maintains an important role for cardiovascular risk stratification in essential hypertension.

Effects of hypertrophy on regional action potential characteristics in the rat left ventricle: a cellular basis for T-wave inversion?

BACKGROUND

In cardiac hypertrophy, ECG T-wave changes imply an abnormal sequence of ventricular repolarization. We investigated the hypothesis that this is due to changes in the normal regional differences in action potential duration. We assessed the contribution of potassium- and calcium-dependent currents to these differences. Both the altered sequence of ventricular repolarization and the underlying cellular mechanisms may contribute to the increased incidence of ventricular arrhythmias in hypertrophy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Rats received daily isoproterenol injections for 7 days. Myocytes were isolated from basal subendocardial (endo), basal midmyocardial (mid), and apical subepicardial (epi) regions of the left ventricular free wall. Action potentials were stimulated with patch pipettes at 37 degrees C. The ratio of heart weight to body weight and mean cell capacitance are increased by 22% and 18%, respectively, in hypertrophy compared with controls (P<.001). Normal regional differences in action potential duration at 25% repolarization (APD25) are reduced in hypertrophy (control: endo, 11.4+/-0.9 ms; mid, 8.2+/-0.9 ms; epi, 5.1+/-0.4 ms; hypertrophy: endo, 11.6+/-0.9 ms; mid, 10.4+/-0.8 ms; epi, 7.8+/-0.6 ms). The regional differences in APD25 are still present in 3 mmol/L 4-aminopyridine. Hypertrophy affects APD75 differently, depending on the region of origin of myocytes (ANOVA P<.05). APD75 is shortened in subendocardial myocytes but is prolonged in subepicardial myocytes (control: endo, 126+/-7 ms; epi, 96+/-10 ms; hypertrophy: endo, 91+/-6 ms; epi, 108+/-7 ms). These changes in APD75 are altered by intracellular calcium buffering.

CONCLUSIONS

Normal regional differences in APD and the changes observed in hypertrophy are only partially explained by differences in I(tol). In hypertrophy, the normal endocardial/epicardial gradient in APD75 appears to be reversed. This may explain the T-wave inversion observed and will have implications for arrhythmogenesis.

Hypertension and coronary artery disease

Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for coronary artery disease. This risk is considerably magnified by the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy. The likeliest dominant factor in this increased risk is myocardial ischaemia, the recognition of which is of key importance. Antihypertensive agents ideally should also protect against occurrence of the clinical syndromes associated with coronary artery disease.

QT dispersion as a risk factor for sudden cardiac death and fatal myocardial infarction in a coronary risk population

OBJECTIVE

To test in a prospective study the hypothesis that increased QT dispersion in resting 12-lead ECG is a predictor of sudden cardiac death.

DESIGN

A nested case-control study during a mean (SD) follow up time of 6.5 (2.8) years.

SETTING

A prospective, placebo controlled, coronary prevention trial with gemfibrozil among dyslipidaemic middle aged men in primary (occupational) health care units: the Helsinki heart study.

PATIENTS

24 victims of fatal myocardial infarction, 48 victims of sudden cardiac death without acute myocardial infarction, and their matched controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

QT dispersion in baseline and pre-event electrocardiograms.

RESULTS

At study baseline, QT dispersion was similar in all victims and controls. When estimated from the pre-event ECG on average 14 months before death, the risk of sudden cardiac death in the highest QTPEAK (up to the peak of the T wave) dispersion tertile (> or = 50 ms) was 6.2-fold (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 23.5) compared with the risk in the lowest tertile (< or = 30 ms), and 4.9-fold (1.2 to 19.5) after adjustment for the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy, while QTPEAK dispersion could not predict fatal myocardial infarction. QTEND dispersion (up to the end of the T wave) in pre-event ECGs could not discriminate victims of either sudden cardiac death or fatal myocardial infarction from their matched controls.

CONCLUSIONS

In middle aged men with a normal conventional QT interval in 12-lead resting ECG, increased QTPEAK dispersion is an independent risk factor for sudden cardiac death, but not for fatal myocardial infarction.

Clinically silent electrocardiographic abnormalities and risk of primary cardiac arrest among hypertensive patients

BACKGROUND

Whether continuous ECG indexes that reflect the severity of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVHI), myocardial injury (CIIS), and QT-interval prolongation (QTI) are associated with the risk of primary cardiac arrest among hypertensive patients, independent of conventional binary ECG criteria, remains unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a population-based case-control study among patients who were free of clinically recognized heart disease and who received care at a health maintenance organization. Cases (n = 131) were treated hypertensive patients who had had a primary cardiac arrest between 1977 and 1990. Controls (n = 562) were a stratified random sample of treated hypertensive patients. Resting ECGs were reviewed to estimate the severity of left ventricular hypertrophy, myocardial injury, and QT-interval prolongation on the basis of the algorithms of the Novacode ECG classification system. After adjustment for other risk factors and binary ECG criteria for the abnormalities, the LVHI, CIIS, and QTI scores were directly related to the risk of primary cardiac arrest. In a comparison of the 80th with the 20th percentile score for the LVHI, the risk was increased 40% (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.0); for the CIIS, the risk was increased 70% (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.5); and for the QTI, the risk was increased 80% (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that continuous ECG indexes that reflect left ventricular hypertrophy, myocardial injury, and QT-interval prolongation are directly related to the risk of primary cardiac arrest among hypertensive patients without clinically recognized heart disease. Binary ECG criteria may underestimate the prognostic importance of these pathophysiological abnormalities.

Utility of new electrocardiographic models for left ventricular mass in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study Collaborative Research Group

Several multivariate statistical models have recently been introduced for estimation of left ventricular mass from standard 12-lead electrocardiographic measurements. The validity of these algorithms has not been adequately evaluated. The objective of this investigation was to compare the associations between echocardiographic and electrocardiographic left ventricular mass values with clinical and subclinical indexes of coronary heart disease. The evaluation was performed with participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based sample of 5201 men and women aged 65 years and older. Echocardiographic M-mode measurements of left ventricular mass were performed from videotape recordings with the use of a strictly standardized protocol. Electrocardiographic algorithms of the Novacode program and new algorithms derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study population were used for left ventricular mass prediction. Echocardiographic and electrocardiographic determinations of left ventricular mass were technically successful in 3410 (65.6%) and 5013 (96.4%) participants, respectively. The Novacode model overestimated echocardiographic left ventricular mass. Compared with the Novacode model, the new Cardiovascular Health Study electrocardiographic model, which includes adjustment for body weight, eliminated left ventricular mass prediction bias and improved the correlation between echocardiographic and electrocardiographic left ventricular mass from .33 to .54 in women and from .46 to .51 in men. Echocardiographic and electrocardiographic models both demonstrated similar and about equally strong associations with overt and subclinical disease and with risk factors for left ventricular hypertrophy. These observations demonstrate the potential utility of electrocardiographic models for left ventricular mass estimation.

Association of carotid atherosclerosis with electrocardiographic myocardial ischemia and left ventricular hypertrophy

Patients with carotid atherosclerosis have an increased risk of coronary events and an increased prevalence of echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy. However, little is known regarding the association between electrocardiographic abnormalities and carotid atherosclerosis. The relationship of electrocardiographic evidence of myocardial ischemia and left ventricular hypertrophy to the presence of carotid atherosclerosis was prospectively studied in 349 asymptomatic subjects who underwent echocardiography and carotid ultrasonography. Myocardial ischemia on the electrocardiogram was defined by the presence of localized T-wave inversions, and electrocardiographic hypertrophy was defined by the product of Cornell voltage and QRS duration. Carotid atherosclerosis was present in 21% (72/ 349) of subjects and was associated with older age, higher systolic and pulse pressures, and greater left ventricular mass. Both ischemia and hypertrophy on the electrocardiogram were strongly associated with carotid plaque. Carotid atherosclerosis was more than three times more prevalent in subjects with electrocardiographic ischemia (69% [11/16] versus 18% [61/333], P < .0001) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (78% [7/9] versus 19% [65/340], P = .0003) than in subjects without these findings. Logistic regression analysis, including standard risk factors, revealed that both ischemia and hypertrophy on the electrocardiogram remained significant independent predictors of the presence of carotid atherosclerosis, along with age and echocardiographic left ventricular mass. These findings suggest that the associations of ischemia and left ventricular hypertrophy with carotid atherosclerosis may contribute to the increased incidence of coronary events in patients with carotid atherosclerosis.