How did the economic recession (2008-2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

Assessing the effect of automated speed enforcement and comprehensive measures on road safety in Rwanda

OBJECTIVES

Daily, approximately 3,400 traffic-related deaths occur globally, with over 90% concentrated in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Notably, Rwanda has one of the highest road traffic death rates in the world (29.7 per 100,000 people) and is the first low-income country to implement a national Automated Speed Enforcement (ASE) policy. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of ASE cameras in reducing the primary outcome of road traffic deaths and secondary outcomes of serious injury crashes and fatal crashes.

METHODS

The study used data on road traffic deaths, and serious injury and fatal crashes collected by the Rwanda National Police between 2010 and 2022. Interrupted time series (ITS) models were fit to quantify the association between ASE and change in road traffic crash outcomes, adjusted for COVID-19-related variables (such as the start of the pandemic, the closure of schools and bars), along with exposure variables (such as GDP and population), and other concurrent road safety measures (such as road safety campaigns).

RESULTS

The ITS models show that the implementation of ASE cameras significantly reduced road traffic deaths, serious injury crashes, and fatal crashes at the provincial level. For instance, the implementation of ASE cameras in the whole of Rwanda in April 2021 was significantly associated with a 0.14 (95% CI [0.072, 0.212]) reduction in monthly death incidence, equating to a 38.16% monthly decrease compared to the period before their installation (January 2010-March 2021).

CONCLUSION

This study emphasizes the significant association of ASE in Rwanda with improved road traffic crash outcomes, a result that may inform road safety policy in other LMICs. Rwanda has become the first low-income country to implement nationwide scaling of ASE in Africa, paving the way for the generation of valuable evidence on speed-related interventions. In addition to new knowledge generation, African road safety research efforts like this one are opportunities to grow academic and law enforcement cooperations while improving data systems and sources for future research benefits.

Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran's Road Safety Strategic Plan.

Planning traffic surveillance in Spain: How to optimize the management of police resources to reduce road fatalities

Although traffic police enforcement is widely recognized as a key action in the road safety field, it can be a costly policy to implement. In addition, governments often impose budget constraints that can limit the resources available for activities such as law enforcement and surveillance. To evaluate the impact of human traffic control resources planning on traffic fatalities on Spanish NUTS-3 regions interurban roads, this paper uses an econometric model to investigate the performance of police enforcement intensity by focusing on two crucial traffic law infractions (i.e., speeding and drunk driving). After controlling for a range of economic, demographic, climate, and risk exposure variables, results highlight the relevance of visible, human, and in-person traffic law enforcement through regular vehicle patrols for reducing traffic crashes, with a non-significant effect of automatic enforcement. Our findings have important implications for traffic police resource management regarding the effective maintenance of patrol cars and plans to digitalize and automatize police administrative tasks and procedures.

Road traffic mortality and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the United States

Previous studies have shown that financial turbulence is associated with a short-term increase in road traffic collisions, largely due to drivers' emotional state, distraction, sleep deprivation and alcohol consumption. In this paper we advance this debate by studying the association between economic uncertainty and road traffic mortality in the United States. We used a State-level uncertainty index and State fatalities for the period 2008-2017 and found that a one standard deviation increase in economic uncertainty is associated with an additional 0.013 monthly deaths per 100,000 people per State, on average (a 1.1% increase) - or 40 more monthly deaths in total nationwide. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our findings show that, similar to drink-driving, it is important to raise awareness about driving when distracted due to financial worries and during periods of economic uncertainty.

Clinico-Etiological Profile of Children Admitted with Head Injury in a Tertiary Health Care Centre During the COVID Pandemic

Background The mechanism of injury, type of pathology, mode of management and specific problems, in the pediatric age group make these a unique population. The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown caused a significant reduction in the number of road traffic accidents during the same period and the resultant number of head injuries in children.

Methods This was a descriptive study of 76 consecutive pediatric patients admitted with head injury between June and December 2020. Children under 18 years with head injury admitted in our hospital were included.

Results The most common etiology of pediatric head injury was found to be fall from height (61.8%) followed by road traffic accidents (27.6%). The most common age group affected was 1 to 5 years with a mean of 6.3 ± 5 years. Road traffic accidents were commonly seen in the 15 to 18 age group. The Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) of 1 (death) was seen in one patient (1.3%) and low disability in 98.7% of patients.

Conclusion Falls formed the most important cause of pediatric head injury during this pandemic, and carefulness on the part of parents can help avoid dangerous consequences for the children. Recovery with minimal disability was observed in approximately all cases in this study. The number of severe traumatic brain injury was very low in this study. This can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic causing significant reduction in road traffic accidents and the number of severe head injury

A new alcohol-related traffic law, a further reduction in traffic fatalities? Analyzing the case of Turkey

BACKGROUND

In June 2013, an alcohol-related traffic law took effect in Turkey. The law 6487 introduced administrative fines for not respecting blood alcohol concentration limits, health warning messages on alcohol containers (bottles, cans), and prohibited the sale of alcohol beverages in retail facilities between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.. This article examines how this law is associated with traffic fatality variation.

METHODS

Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the 2008-2019 period were analyzed. Outcomes were traffic fatality rates per 100,000 population and 10,000 motor vehicles. Exposure variable was the presence of law 6487. Alcohol, tobacco, and related beverages' household expenditure, unemployment rate, number of health professionals, number of crashes, and lags of the outcomes represented control variables. A time-series cross-regional fixed effect model was applied.

RESULTS

Empirical estimates suggest that the law 6487 was associated with a reduction of 15% (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 0.85, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 082, 0.94) in the traffic fatality per population rate and with a reduction of 14% (IRR: 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.92) in the traffic fatality per motor-vehicle rate. After 6 years of its implementation, this intervention was associated with an absolute reduction of 1519 (95% reduction interval: 1177, 1810) traffic fatalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research emphasizes that legislation with direct and indirect measures targeting driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) may be related to traffic fatalities reduction.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This finding has important implications for policy and future research in contexts in which alcohol consumption is low such is in Turkey. Future research should seek to identify mechanisms that explain how laws are ultimately associated with DUIA variation.

Analysis on alteration of road traffic casualties in western China from multi-department data in recent decade

Background

Road traffic safety has considerably improved in China. However, the changes may differ in the economically backward and altitude higher western region. This study aims to investigate changes in the occurrence and severity of traffic casualties in western China and illuminate several key causal factors.

Materials and methods

Traffic accident data from the Annual Traffic Accident Statistics Report combined with population and vehicle data from the China Statistics Bureau between 2009 and 2019, were retrospectively analyzed. Traffic accident numbers, fatalities, human injury (HI), case fatality rates (CFR), mortality per 100,000 population (MRP), and mortality per 10,000 vehicles (MRV) were compared between the western and eastern regions. The HI, CFR, MRV, and MRP between the four groups based on the altitude of cities, below 500 meters, 500 to 1,500 meters, 1,500 to 3,000 meters, and over 3,000 meters, were compared using one-way analysis of variance. One hundred and seventy-eight cases of extremely serious traffic accidents were further analyzed in terms of accident occurrence time, vehicle type, road grade, road shape, accident pattern, and accident reason. The differences of accident characteristics between the eastern and western regions were compared using the chi-square test.

Results

The number of traffic accidents and fatalities decreased in low-altitude areas in western China. However, there was a significant increasing trend in the high altitude area. The HI, CFR, MRV, and MRP were higher in the western region than that in the eastern and national. Those accident indicators tended to increase with increasing altitude. And there were statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) among groups from different altitudes. Chi-square test results show that there are statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in term of road grade, road shape, accident pattern between eastern and western. Low-grade roads, combined curved and sloping roads, and rollover were significant features associated with traffic accidents in the western region. Bad roads were the main cause of rollover accidents in western China, which will lead to more serious casualties. Over speeding, overloading, bad weather, vehicle failure, and driver error were the top five accident causes.

Conclusion

Traffic accidents are increasing in high-altitude areas of western China, and they lead to more severe casualties. The characteristics of serious traffic accidents in this part of the country differ from those of the eastern regions. Improving road safety facilities, restrictions of speed, and improving medical treatment at accident scenes may be effective measures to reduce traffic accidents related injuries in the western region.

Association of human mobility with road crashes for pandemic-ready safer mobility: A New York City case study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our cities in many ways. The number of motor vehicles on the road has plummeted during lockdowns, and an increasing number of people are turning to walking and biking. From a road safety perspective, the overall question is what effects the human behavior shift brings on the crash occurrence and, more importantly, how to support decision-makers on safer mobility policies?

METHOD

Based on anonymous mobile phone location and crash report data in New York City, this study attempts to provide some new insights by using survival analysis (the hazard function approach) to explore the effects of human mobility changes due to the pandemic on crashes that involve injuries and fatalities (of pedestrian, cyclist or motorist).

RESULTS

(1) the increased percentage of people staying at home improves pedestrian and cyclist safety, which adds evidence for making walking and cycling more appealing; (2) the increased percentage of people staying at home raises the likelihood of injuries for motor vehicle drivers, suggesting that it will be critical to monitor the driving behavior and establish new speed limits during the future pandemic waves and in the post-pandemic era as well; (3) non-work trips (e.g., shopping, recreation, personal business, etc.) are positively associated with crash injuries for motor vehicle drivers as well as pedestrian and cyclist; (4) human mobility factors were found not related to crash fatalities; (5) control NPIs implemented increased the motor vehicle drivers' crash risk.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic influence traffic fatalities in 2020? A presentation of first findings

The year 2020 was an extraordinary year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic resulted in lockdowns and confinements globally and emptier streets and roads. Traffic patterns and traffic composition (modal split) changed considerably during the pandemic and as a consequence the number of people killed and injured in road crashes. The aim of this research is to present the number of road fatalities and the fatality rates (fatalities per kilometer driven) in 2020 and to compare these numbers and rates with the previous period (2017–2019), a baseline. An online questionnaire was distributed among the forty countries that are members of the International Safety Data and Analysis Group (IRTAD) in the International Transport Forum and 24 were in a position to submit the requested information before the 1st of June 2021. The questionnaire requested information on the monthly number of fatalities on a national level for four years, (2017–2020) and on kilometres driven. The number of fatalities in 2020 was 17.3% lower in the 24 participating countries compared with the baseline period and the reduction is almost seven times higher than annually in these countries in the period 2010–2019. The reduction took place in spring 2020 and not so much in the remainder of the year. The highest reduction were measured among young (0–17) and elderly people (75 and older), with public transport and on motorways. With the exception of one country, reductions in fatalities have been measured in all countries, however we observe major differences between countries. Regarding fatality rates (fatalities per vehicle kilometer travelled), we also observe major differences between countries and not a stable pattern over 2020 and a remarkable increase in April 2020, the month with the largest fatality reduction. Countries with severe COVID-19 restrictions do not necessarily demonstrate the greatest reductions in road fatalities. It is recommended to carry our further analysis to find explanations for the results and for the differences between the countries.

Evaluation of motor vehicle crash rates during and after the COVID-19-associated stay-at-home order in Connecticut

INTRODUCTION

Recent research suggests that COVID-19 associated stay-at-home orders, or shelter-in-place orders, have impacted intra-and-interstate travel as well as motor vehicle crashes (crashes). We sought to further this research and to understand the impact of the stay-at-home order on crashes in the post order period in Connecticut.

METHODS

We used a multiple-comparison group, interrupted time-series analysis design to compare crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per week in 2020 to the average of 2017-2019 from January 1-August 31. We stratified crash rate by severity and the number of vehicles involved. We modeled two interruption points reflecting the weeks Connecticut implemented (March 23rd, week 12) and rescinded (May 20th, week 20) its stay-at-home order.

RESULTS

During the initial week of the stay-at-home order in Connecticut, there was an additional 28 single vehicle crashes compared to previous years (95% confidence interval (CI): [15.8, 36.8]). However, the increase at the order onset was not seen throughout the duration. Rescinding the stay-at-home order by and large did not result in an immediate increase in crash rates. Crash rates steadily returned to previous year averages during the post-stay-at-home period. Fatal crash rates were unaffected by the stay-at-home order and remained similar to previous year rates throughout the study duration.

DISCUSSION

The initial onset of the stay-at-home order in Connecticut was associated with a sharp increase in the single vehicle crash rate but that increase was not sustained for the remainder of the stay-at-home order. Likely changes in driver characteristics during and after the order kept fatal crash rates similar to previous years.

Analysis of the regional distribution of road traffic mortality and associated factors in Japan

BACKGROUND

Regional differences in road traffic (RT) mortality among municipalities have not been revealed in Japan. Further, the association between RT mortality and regional socioeconomic characteristics has not been investigated. We analyzed geographic differences in RT mortality and its associated factors using the Vital Statistics in Japan.

METHODS

We used data on RT mortality by sex and municipality in Japan from 2013 to 2017. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of RT for each municipality by sex using an Empirical Bayes method. The SMRs were mapped onto a map of Japan to show the geographic differences. In addition, an ecological study investigated the municipal characteristics associated with the SMR using demographic socioeconomic, medical, weather, and vehicular characteristics as explanatory variables. The ecological study used a spatial statistical model.

RESULTS

The mapping revealed that the number of municipalities with a high SMR of RT (SMR > 2) was larger in men than in women. In addition, SMRs of capital areas (Kanagawa and Tokyo prefectures) tended to be low in men and women. The regression analysis revealed that population density was negatively associated with the SMR in men and women, and the degree of the association was the largest among explanatory variables. In contrast, there was a positive association between the proportion of non-Japanese persons and SMR. The proportions of lower educational level (elementary school or junior high school graduates), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries workers, service workers, and blue-collar workers were positively associated with the SMR in men. The proportion of unemployed persons was negatively associated with the SMR in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic characteristics are associated with geographic differences in RT mortality particularly in men. The results suggested preventive measures targeted at men of low socioeconomic status and non-Japanese persons are needed to decrease RT mortality further.

Long-term impact of the 2008 economic crisis in Spain on road traffic collisions mortality by socioeconomic position

We aimed to assess the effect of the 2008 crisis on road traffic collision (RTC) mortality in Spain, by socioeconomic position (SEP) and type of road use. This prospective, country-wide study covered all adults living in Spain and aged ≥30 years in November 2001. The long-term effect of the crisis was assessed by measuring the monthly percentage change (MPC) in RTC mortality between the pre-crisis (2002-2007) and crisis period (2008-2011). During the recession, RTC mortality fell more in people with low compared to high SEP, so MPCs difference between periods were of a higher magnitude in the low compared to high SEP groups, especially among men motorcyclists. RTC mortality trends were favorable following the 2008 crisis, particularly among low-SEP groups. In men motorcyclists, the upward trend of the pre-crisis period reversed course.

Impact of socioeconomic and transport indicators on road safety during the crisis period in Europe

The risk of being involved in a road crash is typically influenced by mobility, which in turn is influenced by various socioeconomic indicators. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic and transport indicators on road safety during the economic crisis period in Europe. A database containing Human Development Index (HDI), suicides, passenger-kilometers and road fatalities per population was developed. Linear Mixed Models were applied for all the examined countries and the different groups that were selected for the period 2006-2015. The results led to the conclusion that HDI has the most important impact and its increase leads to road fatalities decrease. Moreover, the evolution of human development affects the outcomes of road crashes more than suicides and passenger-kilometers travelled. After the end of the crisis, the impact of human development is even higher. Concerning passenger-kilometers travelled, there is an increase in the relative impact on road fatalities after the end of the crisis.

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

INTRODUCTION

The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called "megatrucks" (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown.

METHODS

This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of "megatrucks" throughout the EU.

RESULTS

The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average.

CONCLUSIONS

The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.

Drink driving during the COVID-19 pandemic

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, static roadside random breath testing (RBT) was temporarily suspended between 16 March and 12 June 2020 in Queensland, Australia. In addition to restrictions on travel and social interactions, this provided a unique opportunity to examine changes in drink-driving behaviour during and after a reduction in RBT operations in the community. Three cross-sectional surveys were disseminated at different time points to examine these differences. Over three surveys, 1193 Queensland licensed drivers aged 18 years and over (M = 36.9, SD = 16.7) responded. While overall drink driving decreased over the three survey periods, there were groups where drink driving, or the intention to drink drive, increased over the same period. The overall decrease could be expected as a result of community restrictions on socialising and travel behaviours. In each of the surveys, prior engagement in drink driving was the strongest predictor of intention to increase future engagement and actual engagement. These drink drivers were more likely aged 18-24 years, male, and held restricted licensure. Notably, a small number of participants who reported drink driving, and/or intention to drink drive during the survey period, reported not having engaged in this behaviour previously. This suggested an increased likelihood of drink drivers experiencing punishment avoidance which may promote future engagement in this behaviour. Despite a decrease in social opportunities to drink, and the suspension of highly visible roadside breath testing sites, drink driving persisted. This research highlights the importance of RBTs as a general deterrent for drink driving.

Spatial differentiation of road safety in Europe based on NUTS-2 regions

Road safety varies significantly across the regions in Europe. To understand the factors behind this differentiation and the effects they have, data covering 263 NUTS-2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions across Europe (European Union and Norway) have been analysed. The assessment was made using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). As a dependent variable the Road Fatality Rate (RFR - number of fatalities in a given year per one million population of the region) was used. The GWR was developed from 2014 data and took account of variables that characterise economic, infrastructural and social development. The model was validated using 2016-2018 data. The following factors were found to be statistically significant: gross domestic product per person (GDPPC), number of passenger cars per inhabitant (MRPC), share of passenger vehicles (PPC), life expectancy at birth (LIFE), as well as variables related to the border of the regions, innerborder (IB) and outerborder (OB). Results suggest that the GWR has an advantage over the global linear model which does not address regional proximity. The model allows for identification of the differences in the level of road safety in regions, estimated on the basis of the RFR and the available data in Eurostat databases. This in turn allows for indicating regions in which activities to improve road safety should have the highest priority. The model shows a large spatial diversity of factors affecting the RFR, which indicates the need to take different actions to improve road safety depending on the region. The results suggest that the GWR model can be useful for predicting and more efficient management of road safety at the regional level in Europe.

Macroeconomic changes and educational inequalities in traffic fatalities in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s. Educational inequalities in RTA mortality in 2000-2003, 2004-2007, 2008-2011 and 2012-2015 among 30-74 year olds were examined using census-linked longitudinal mortality data and by estimating the relative and slope index of inequality. Overall RTA mortality decreased substantially between 2000-2003 and 2012-2015. From 2004-2007 to 2008-2011, the RTA mortality decline accelerated but was larger in the Baltic countries. Among men the RTA mortality decline was mostly driven by a larger fall among the high and middle educated. Among women, the changes in RTA mortality by educational level had no clear pattern. From 2000-2003 to 2012-2015 relative educational inequalities in RTA mortality increased among men, although more in the Baltic countries. Among women the pattern was mixed across countries. Absolute inequalities fell in all countries among both sexes. Educational inequalities in male RTA mortality may be growing because of increasingly less access to safer cars and a more hazardous driving culture among the lower educated.

Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019

Trends and underlying patterns should be identified in the timely distribution of road traffic offenses to increase traffic safety. In this study, a time series analysis was used to study the incidence rate of road traffic violations on Iranian rural roads. Road traffic volume and offenses data from March 2011 to October 2019 were aggregated. Interrupted time series were used to evaluate the impact of increasing fuel cost in June of 2013 and July of 2014 and the currency devaluation of Rial vs. US dollars in July of 2017 on trends and patterns, traffic volume, and number of offenses. A change-point detection (CPD) analysis was also used to identify singular changes in the frequency of traffic offenses. Results show a general decline in the number of overtaking and speeding offenses of −24.31% and −13.23%, respectively, due to the first increase in fuel cost. The second increase only reduced overtaking by 20.97%. In addition, Iran’s currency devaluation reduced the number of overtaking offenses by 26.39%. Modeling a change-point detection and a Mann-Kendall Test of traffic offenses in Iran, it was found that the burden of violations was reduced.

Vulnerable road-user deaths in Brazil: a Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial-temporal analysis

Reducing the road traffic injuries burden is relevant to many sustainable development goals (SDG), in particular SDG3 - to establish good health and well-being. To describe the spatial-temporal trends and identify hotspot regions for fatal road traffic injuries, a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to analyze data on vulnerable road users (bicyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrians) in Brazil from 1999 to 2016. During the study period, mortality rates for bicyclists remained almost unchanged (0.6 per 100,000 people) but rose dramatically for motorcyclists (from 1.0 in 1999 to 6.0 per 100,000 people in 2016) and decreased for pedestrians (from 6.3 to 3.0 per 100,000 people). Spatial analyses accounting for socio-economic factors showed that the central and northeastern microregions of Brazil are hotspot areas for fatal injuries among motorcyclists while the southern areas are for pedestrians.

Revisiting the relationship between traffic accidents, real economic activity and other factors in Spain

This paper analyzes the relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain, using data on accidents, fatalities and injuries from January 1975 to December 2016. Our results show the historical asymmetric cyclical behavior of traffic accidents variables. This relationship is more evident for accidents and injuries, while fatalities have shown a different pattern since 2002. Besides using aggregate data, we have analyzed urban and nonurban accidents separately. We analyze the effect of economic variables, public policy interventions and other potential factors affecting traffic series. Regarding policy interventions, we confirm a permanent reduction in all accident rates associated with the mandatory use of seatbelts on car passengers since 1992. However, the penalty points system introduced in July 2006 has only had temporary effects. We have also shown the effect of economic variables such as Industrial Production Index, gasoline and diesel consumption and registration of new vehicles and, as a novelty, the benefits of using the composite coincident and leading indicators of the Spanish economy.

Coronavirus disease 2019: What could be the effects on Road safety?

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a world-wide pandemic. Countries introduced public health measures to contain and reduce its spread. These measures included closures of educational institutions, non-essential businesses, events and activities, as well as working from and staying at home requirements. These measures have led to an economic downturn of unprecedented proportions. Generally, as economic activity declines, travel decreases and drivers are exposed to a lower risk of collisions. However, research on previous economic downturns suggests economic downturns differentially affect driver behaviours and situations. COVID-19 pandemic effects on road safety are currently unknown. However, preliminary information on factors such as the increased stress and anxiety brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, more "free" (idle) time, increased consumption of alcohol and drugs, and greater opportunities for speeding and stunt driving, might well have the opposite effect on road safety. Using an interactionist model we identify research questions for researchers to consider on potential person and situation factors associated with COVID-19 that could affect road safety during and after the pandemic. Collaborative efforts by researchers, and public and private sectors will be needed to gather data and develop road safety strategies in relation to the new reality of COVID-19.

Road Investment and Traffic Safety: An International Study

The aim of this study is to analyse whether the economic resources invested in roads—both investment in construction and expenditure on maintenance and conservation—have any influence on road fatality rates. Since this is a complex problem, and because there are many factors that can influence the fatality rate, other variables related to specific transport, socioeconomic and meteorological factors are also considered. The study was carried out using a panel data model, modelling road mortality as a function of 12 variables. The scope of the study is international, focusing on the interurban road network. Data were collected from 23 European countries for the period 1998–2016. The main results obtained are that both expenditure on road maintenance and conservation and the proportion of motorways in the total road network contribute to reducing road mortality. Contrariwise, greater investment in construction leads to an increase in the fatality rate.

Looking for traces of the Troika's intervention in European road safety

The recent economic crisis has required the bailout of some European States by the so-called Troika, with capital injections accompanied by financial austerity. This paper analyzes econometrically the impact of this support programme on road safety for an original panel data (1995-2015). The findings also corroborate the Kuznets curve hypothesis for traffic accidents in the long term. Regarding the impact of intervention in the short term, despite reductions in safety policy budgets due to austerity, financial support, and related austerity measures might have led to an improvement in road safety, reducing both the number of accidents and fatalities. Therefore, it seems that our result is more linked to the austerity measures than to the financial support given by the Troika.

Interregional inequality and road accident rates in Spain

The aim of this study was to determine whether interregional inequality in Spain had the same impact on the risks of fatality and injury across the different provinces of Spain, in the period from 1999 to 2015. This allows us to map fatality and injury rates in Spanish provinces depending on their level of economic development. Provinces were divided in two large groups according to the mean weight of their per capita GDP on the national GDP from 2000 to 2015. Using fixed effects data panel models, estimations were obtained for each group of the impact of the relationships between per capita GDP, unemployment rate and other control variables on their risks of fatality and injury. The models reveal that economic conditions and education are explanatory factors with greater significance and impact on the risks of fatality and injury in provinces with higher levels of economic development. In this group, the penalty-points driving licence was found have a greater impact, although its effectiveness is now being questioned. In contrast, to reduce the risks of fatality and injury in less developed provinces, it is imperative to invest in road infrastructure, increasing the proportion of high capacity roads and investing more in road replacement and maintenance. The geographical distribution generated in this study allows us to better identify the areas with a higher risk of fatality or injury. This, in turn, confirms the need to improve the configuration of road safety policy, taking into account the different fatality or injury rates across provinces, the origins of which lie in the specific provincial conditions.

Exploring the temporal stability of global road safety statistics

Given the importance of rigorous quantitative reasoning in supporting national, regional or global road safety policies, data quality, reliability, and stability are of the upmost importance. This study focuses on macroscopic properties of road safety statistics and the temporal stability of these statistics at a global level. A thorough investigation of two years of measurements was conducted to identify any unexpected gaps that could highlight the existence of inconsistent measurements. The database used in this research includes 121 member countries of the United Nation (UN-121) with a population of at least one million (smaller country data shows higher instability) and includes road safety and socioeconomic variables collected from a number of international databases (e.g. WHO and World Bank) for the years 2010 and 2013. For the fulfillment of the earlier stated goal, a number of data visualization and exploratory analyses (Hierarchical Clustering and Principal Component Analysis) were conducted. Furthermore, in order to provide a richer analysis of the data, we developed and compared the specification of a number of Structural Equation Models for the years 2010 and 2013. Different scenarios have been developed, with different endogenous variables (indicators of mortality rate and fatality risk) and structural forms. The findings of the current research indicate inconsistency phenomena in global statistics of different instances/years. Finally, the results of this research provide evidence on the importance of careful and systematic data collection for developing advanced statistical and econometric techniques and furthermore for developing road safety policies.

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991-2015

OBJECTIVE

To establish the incidence of road transport collision (RTC) fatalities in the Irish paediatric population, examining trends in fatality rates over a period of 25 years, during which several national road safety interventions were implemented.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of death registration details of children 0-19 years in Ireland between January 1991 and December 2015. Trends in mortality rates were investigated using average annual per cent change and Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS

Proportionate RTC mortality, the majority of which occurred on public roads (94.1%, n=1432) increased with age; <0.3% (<1 year), 8.3% (1-14 years) and 18.4% (15-19 years) (2011-2015 average). Over time, rates declined significantly in all age groups; reductions of 79.0% (4.0 to 0.84/100 000, 1-14 years) and 68.4% (15.5 to 4.9/100 000, 15-19 years) resulted in 537 (95% CI 515 to 566) fewer child deaths (1-19 years) over the period 1996-2015. This reduction was evident for both road user types, the greatest decline (84.8%) among pedestrians 1-14 years (2.1 to 0.32/100 000) and the lowest (66.5%) among occupants 15-19 years, the majority of whom were male (12.4 to 4.2/100 000). The rate of decline was greatest during periods coinciding with introduction of targeted interventions. Risk of death in children 1-14 years was halved in the period after 2002 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.52) while in children 15-19 years old, a significantly lower RTC fatality risk was evident after 2006 and 2010 (IRR 0.68 and IRR 0.50).

CONCLUSION

Child and adolescent mortality from RTCs has declined dramatically in Ireland, in excess of reductions in overall paediatric mortality. However, rates remain higher than in other EU countries and further effort is required to reduce the number of deaths further, particularly among adolescent males.

Associations between graduated driver licensing and road trauma reductions in a later licensing age jurisdiction: Queensland, Australia

The success of driver graduated licensing systems (GLS) is demonstrated primarily in jurisdictions that licence at young ages with requirements expiring at age 18. In Australia, GLS requirements typically apply for all applicants aged under 25. In 2007, the Queensland licensing system was strengthened, extending the learner and introducing a 100-hour supervised driving requirement, introducing restrictions on passenger carriage at night and high-powered vehicles for provisional drivers, and on phone use for all novice drivers (learner and provisional). The objective of the current research was to evaluate whether these changes were associated with reductions in crashes (all) and killed-and-serious-injury (KSI) crashes involving novice drivers, and respective casualties. Government licensing and police crash records were linked and interrupted time series analysis was used to examine potential shifts in crash trends by rates of licensed drivers per month. Substantial declines were found in novice driver crashes (13.1% per year; 95%CI -0.0130, -0.0096), crash casualties (13.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0137, -0.0101), KSI crashes (5.4% per year; 95%CI -0.0080, -0.0046) and associated casualties (5.2% per year; 95%CI -0.0075, -0.0039). Compared to the total licensed driver population, declines in crashes (3.0% per year; 95%CI -0.0027, -0.0007) and crash casualties (2.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0029, -0.0006) but not KSI outcomes were observed. More narrowly, declines were found for provisional-licensed driver crashes (9.3% per year; 95%CI -0.0096, -0.0063) and KSI crashes (3.6% per year; 95%CI -0.0004, -0.0128) that were approximately 2.6% and 1.2% greater than respective declines for 25-29-year-old open-licensed drivers. Substantial declines also were observed in novice driver single-vehicle, night, passenger and alcohol crashes. Overall, these results demonstrate that GLS can be effective in a later age licensing jurisdiction. However, KSI outcomes were limited. Modelling research is recommended on ways to further strengthen Queensland’s GLS to achieve greater trauma reductions.

Impact of provincial characteristics on the number of traffic accident victims on interurban roads in Spain

This study has two aims. The first is to determine how various factors impact on the number of fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries adjusted for the level of traffic on interurban roads in Spain. The second is to establish the number of victims per million vehicle-kilometres (veh-km) travelled on interurban roads in each province resulting from the effect of its specific characteristics. To this end, we developed six fixed effect panel data models with panel corrected standard errors for the 1999-2015 period. Our results show that while the proportion of high capacity roads, the unemployment rate and the motorization rate contribute to a reduction in the number of fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries adjusted for level of traffic, the penalty-points licence system is effective in reducing the number of fatalities and serious injuries but not the number of slight injuries. Furthermore, the specific conditions in Ávila, Toledo, Madrid, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, the Balearic Islands, Lleida and all the provinces on the Mediterranean coast cause a higher number of victims per million veh-km travelled than in the remaining provinces. Thus, greater public investment and more socially responsible behaviour are essential tools for reducing the number of traffic accident victims on Spanish interurban roads. Moreover, the provincial institutions emerge as key agents in improving road safety, due to their greater knowledge of the specific conditions and factors affecting each province.