Ecological niche modeling for predicting the habitat suitability of fascioliasis based on maximum entropy model in southern Caspian Sea littoral, Iran

Potential geographical distribution of harmful algal blooms caused by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi in the China Sea

The fish-killing dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi frequently blooms in China and poses a threat to food safety and human health. To better understand harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by K. mikimotoi and predict the risk of HABs under climate change, the combined effect of nitrate and norfloxacin (NOR) on the growth of K. mikimotoi was tested. A growth model was used to test the effects of nutrients and pollutants on the carrying capacity of the unicellular algae. The carrying capacity increased with increasing concentrations of nitrate and NOR, reaching a maximum at 62.2 μmol L-1 of nitrate and 9.03 mg L-1 of NOR. The calculated carrying capacity of K. mikimotoi in the China Sea showed a declining trend from nearshore to offshore, with a value >30 × 106 cells L-1 in the estuary of the Changjiang River and Hangzhou Bay. The HAB index proposed in this study as a measurement of HAB risk was constructed using the carrying capacity and relative abundance from the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model. The index showed that HABs caused by K. mikimotoi consecutively occurred in Zhejiang and Fujian coastal waters and predicted that they will continue until 2100, regardless of the greenhouse gas emission scenario. The center of the integrated area moved northward, with a range of 120-900 km. The HAB index integrates the characteristics of the carrying capacity and suitability of habitats, and expresses the information contained in the intensive and extensive variables that affect HAB occurrence. This index is a promising predictor of HAB risk in coastal waters.

Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios

Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km². The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.

Cryptosporidiosis threat under climate change in China: prediction and validation of habitat suitability and outbreak risk for human-derived Cryptosporidium based on ecological niche models

BACKGROUND

Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp., and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors. In the present study, the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control.

METHODS

The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011-2019. Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs, namely Maxent, Bioclim, Domain, and Garp. Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Kappa, and True Skill Statistic coefficients. The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986‒2010, and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution. The climate variables for the period 2011‒2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China.

RESULTS

The Maxent model (AUC = 0.95, maximum Kappa = 0.91, maximum TSS = 1.00) fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability. The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins (cloglog value of habitat suitability > 0.9). Under future climate change, non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink, while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly (χ² = 76.641, P < 0.01; χ² = 86.836, P < 0.01), and the main changes will likely be concentrated in the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The Maxent model is applicable in prediction of Cryptosporidium habitat suitability and can achieve excellent simulation results. These results suggest a current high risk of transmission and significant pressure for cryptosporidiosis prevention and control in China. Against a future climate change background, Cryptosporidium may gain more suitable habitats within China. Constructing a national surveillance network could facilitate further elucidation of the epidemiological trends and transmission patterns of cryptosporidiosis, and mitigate the associated epidemic and outbreak risks.

Spatial Distribution of Dicrocoelium in the Himalayan Ranges: Potential Impacts of Ecological Niches and Climatic Variables

PURPOSE

Dicrocoeliosis can be an important cause of production loss in ruminants due to the cost of liver condemnation at slaughter. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of Dicrocoelium infection and to predict the ecological niches and climatic variables that support dicrocoeliosis in the Himalayan ranges of Pakistan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Dicrocoelium was detected in 33 of 381 liver samples and 238 of 6060 blood samples taken from sheep and goat herds in the area. The prevalence of dicrocoeliosis was higher in sheep than in goats and highest in females aged more than 3 years. An environmental risk map was created to predict active zones of transmission and showed the highest probability values in central parts of the Chitral district in the northwest of Pakistan. Climatic variables of the mean monthly diurnal temperature range (Bio2), annual precipitation (Bio12), and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were found to be significantly (p < 0.05) associated with the presence of Dicrocoelium infection.

CONCLUSION

Together, the findings of this study demonstrate the most suitable ecological niches and climatic variables influencing the risk of dicrocoeliosis in the Himalayan ranges of Pakistan. The methods and results could be used as a reference to inform the control of dicrocoeliosis in the region.

Molecular identification of Theileria spp. in ruminants and ticks from southern littoral of Caspian Sea, Iran

The present study aimed at evaluating the presence of tick-borne apicomplexan parasites including Theileria ovis, Theileria lestoquardi, Theileria annulata, and Theileria orientalis in 92 cattle and 105 sheep from 6 different districts of Guilan and Mazandaran Provinces, in the southern littoral of Caspian Sea. Furthermore, ixodid ticks were collected from the same animals. Stained blood smears were microscopically evaluated for the presence of blood parasites, and a specific PCR was applied for the detection of Theileria species. Besides, ticks were subsequently examined by species-specific PCR. Microscopic examination of blood smears demonstrated no evidence of intraerythrocytic piroplasms. Species-specific diagnostic PCRs demonstrated that 52.17% of sheep blood samples were positive for T. ovis. In addition, 31.03% and 24.13% of cattle blood samples were positive for T. annulata and T. orientalis, respectively. Moreover, 3 species of the ixodid ticks, namely, Rhipicephalus annulatus (58.47%), Ixodes ricinus (29.82%), and Haemaphysalis inermis (11.69%), were identified in Guilan Province, while Hyalomma detritum (73.03%) and Rhipicephalus sanguineus (26.92%) were found in Mazandaran Province. Additionally, by obtaining the data with respect to tick-borne apicomplexan parasites in 122 infected ticks, 35.24%, 22.95%, and 2.45% of tick samples were positive for T. annulata, T. orientalis, and T. ovis, respectively. Species-specific PCR revealed that H. inermis and R. annulatus were positive for T. orientalis. In addition, T. annulata was found in R. annulatus, H. inermis, and H. detritum. Besides, T. ovis was the only species of Theileria found in R. sanguineus. In conclusion, the results revealed that T. annulata infection was prevalent among cattle and ovine theileriosis caused by T. ovis was the only Theileria species found in sheep in the studied areas of the southern littoral of Caspian Sea. R. annulatus, H. inermis, and H. detritum were the main vectors for T. annulata, followed by H. inermis and R. annulatus for T. orientalis, and R. sanguineus for T. ovis.

Towards the comprehension of fasciolosis (re-)emergence: an integrative overview

The increasing distribution and prevalence of fasciolosis in both human and livestock are concerning. Here, we examine the various types of factors influencing fasciolosis transmission and burden and the interrelations that may exist between them. We present the arsenal of molecules, 'adjusting' capabilities and parasitic strategies of Fasciola to infect. Such features define the high adaptability of Fasciola species for parasitism that facilitate their transmission. We discuss current environmental perturbations (increase of livestock and land use, climate change, introduction of alien species and biodiversity loss) in relation to fasciolosis dynamics. As Fasciola infection is directly and ultimately linked to livestock management, living conditions and cultural habits, which are also changing under the pressure of globalization and climate change, the social component of transmission is also discussed. Lastly, we examine the implication of increasing scientific and political awareness in highlighting the current circulation of fasciolosis and boosting epidemiological surveys and novel diagnostic techniques. From a joint perspective, it becomes clear that factors weight differently at each place and moment, depending on the biological, environmental, social and political interrelating contexts. Therefore, the analyses of a disease as complex as fasciolosis should be as integrative as possible to dissect the realities featuring each epidemiological scenario. Such a comprehensive appraisal is presented in this review and constitutes its main asset to serve as a fresh integrative understanding of fasciolosis.

Mapping habitat suitability for gastrointestinal nematodiasis of ruminants in southern Caspian Sea littoral: a predicted risk pattern model based on the MaxEnt

Herein, we provide the ecological niches of gastrointestinal nematode infections in Guilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces. For this purpose, 2688 fecal specimens of sheep and cattle were subjected to the flotation method. For modeling procedure, the results were analyzed by considering 23 bioclimatic and environmental variables as well as 96 points/locations. Maximum entropy (model MaxEnt) was used to visualize the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal nematodes. The relative importance of all variables was also assessed by using jackknife analysis. The highest proportion of sheep infection with strongyle-type egg was observed in Golestan province (57.8%) and the lowest in Guilan province (49.5%), and eggs per gram (EPG) was around 21-29. The parasites with the highest proportion of infection in both domestic animals included strongyle-type eggs. Among the different bioclimatic and environmental variables, the biggest contributor to habitat suitability of the gastrointestinal nematode presence was found to be minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and altitude. The MaxEnt model was able to provide a suitable guidance for predicting the probability distribution of gastrointestinal nematodes under bioclimatic and environmental variables, and the findings pave way for integrated gastrointestinal nematode surveillance and control strategies in the southern strip of Caspian Sea. In addition, the low intensity of gastrointestinal nematodiasis in ruminants may be associated with the frequent administration of anthelmintic drugs, where actions are needed to investigate drug resistance in the areas concerned and to provide anthelmintic drugs administration in a targeted manner.