The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

Community composition of invasive, outbreak, and non-pest snail species along a source spring-to-fishpond gradient in a spatially structured aquacultural region

Agricultural lands are integrated into and interact with natural areas. Such is the case of Emek HaMa'ayanot, northern Israel, comprising a springs-rich area characterized by multiple land-uses, including spring-water-based aquaculture, recreational springs, and nature reserves. Aquacultural farms suffer from pest snails that carry fish disease; in the study region, these species are invasive (Thiara scabra, Tarebia granifera, Pseudosuccinea columella) and outbreak endemic (Melanoides tuberculata). Previous snail control efforts have focused on individual fishponds without considering management on larger environmental scales in the waterways from the source springs to the fish farms. To broaden our understanding of the status of the pest snail problem in the study area prior to suggesting environmental managerial solutions, we quantified changes in the community composition of snail species along the springs-to-fishponds gradients in a spatially explicit system. We found a remarkable increase in pest snail abundances along these gradients, indicating that pest snails might be invading upstream towards the springs. There were always nearly 100% pest snails in the endpoint sites for water tracks that ended in fishponds. Moreover, pest snails dominated the site when it was used as a fishpond, even though the site was also a spring. In contrast, in a water track that does not end in a fish farm, the relative abundances of non-pest snail species was similar between the source spring and the downstream endpoint, in spite of an increase in pest snail abundance at a midpoint site. These results suggest that invasive pest snails are actively moving upstream and that the fishponds have a marked upstream effect on the ability of non-pest snails to resist pest species invasions. We suggest further investigation of possible strategies for biocontrol of the observed invasion of the snails into natural areas as a basis for environmental management efforts. Finally, the observations made during this study could have practical global implications for snail management in aquaculture and agriculture, and for the control of snails and snail vectors implicated in animal and human diseases.

Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda during 2018-2019

BACKGROUND

While 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported in Uganda, it is also a top refugee hosting country in Africa, with over 1.36 million refugees. Despite malaria being an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years of age in refugee settlements in Uganda.

METHODS

We utilized data from Uganda's Malaria Indicator Survey which was conducted between December 2018 and February 2019 at the peak of malaria season. In this national survey, household level information was obtained using standardized questionnaires and a total of 7787 children under 5 years of age were tested for malaria using mainly the rapid diagnostic test. We focused on 675 malaria tested children under five in refugee settlements located in Yumbe, Arua, Adjumani, Moyo, Lamwo, Kiryadongo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge and Isingiro districts. The extracted variables included prevalence of malaria, demographic, social-economic and environmental information. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify and define the malaria associated risk factors.

RESULTS

Overall, malaria prevalence in all refugee settlements across the nine hosting districts was 36.6%. Malaria infections were higher in refugee settlements located in Isingiro (98.7%), Kyegegwa (58.6%) and Arua (57.4%) districts. Several risk factors were significantly associated with acquisition of malaria including fetching water from open water sources [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.08-0.59, P = 0.002], boreholes (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 0.91-4.89, P = 0.018) and water tanks (aOR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.67-11.9, P = 0.002). Other factors included pit-latrines (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.03-2.13, P = 0.033), open defecation (aOR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.54-7.05, P = 0.002), lack of insecticide treated bed nets (aOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.43-3.13, P = 0.003) and knowledge on the causes of malaria (aOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.79-1.51, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of the malaria infections were mainly due to open water sources, poor hygiene, and lack of preventive measures that enhanced mosquito survival and infection. Malaria elimination in refugee settlements requires an integrated control approach that combines environmental management with other complementary measures like insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying and awareness.

Ecohydrology 2.0

This paper aims at a definition of the domain of ecohydrology, a relatively new discipline borne out of an intrusion-as advertised by this Topical Collection of the Rendiconti Lincei-of hydrology and geomorphology into ecology (or vice-versa, depending on the reader's background). The study of hydrologic controls on the biota proves, in our view, significantly broader than envisioned by its original focus that was centered on the critical zone where much of the action of soil, climate and vegetation interactions takes place. In this review of related topics and contributions, we propose a reasoned broadening of perspective, in particular by firmly centering ecohydrology on the fluvial catchment as its fundamental control volume. A substantial unity of materials and methods suggests that our advocacy may be considered legitimate.

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

A Mathematical Model of the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Schistosomiasis with Contaminated Environment

Schistosomiasis, a vector-borne chronically debilitating infectious disease, is a serious public health concern for humans and animals in the affected tropical and sub-tropical regions. We formulate and theoretically analyze a deterministic mathematical model with snail and bovine hosts. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the model's steady states. Global stability of the endemic equilibrium is carried out by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis shows that the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the model parameters related to the contaminated environment, namely: shedding rate of cercariae by snails, cercariae to miracidia survival probability, snails-miracidia effective contact rate and natural death rate of miracidia and cercariae. Numerical results show that when no intervention measures are implemented, there is an increase of the infected classes, and a rapid decline of the number of susceptible and exposed bovines and snails. Effects of the variation of some of the key sensitive model parameters on the schistosomiasis dynamics as well as on the initial disease transmission threshold parameter [Formula: see text] are graphically depicted.

Integrating genomic and epidemiologic data to accelerate progress toward schistosomiasis elimination

The global community has adopted ambitious goals to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem, and new tools are needed to achieve them. Mass drug administration programs, for example, have reduced the burden of schistosomiasis, but the identification of hotspots of persistent and reemergent transmission threaten progress toward elimination and underscore the need to couple treatment with interventions that reduce transmission. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technologies make whole-genome sequencing a valuable and increasingly feasible option for population-based studies of complex parasites such as schistosomes. Here, we focus on leveraging genomic data to tailor interventions to distinct social and ecological circumstances. We consider two priority questions that can be addressed by integrating epidemiological, ecological, and genomic information: (1) how often do non-human host species contribute to human schistosome infection? and (2) what is the importance of locally acquired versus imported infections in driving transmission at different stages of elimination? These questions address processes that can undermine control programs, especially those that rely heavily on treatment with praziquantel. Until recently, these questions were difficult to answer with sufficient precision to inform public health decision-making. We review the literature related to these questions and discuss how whole-genome approaches can identify the geographic and taxonomic sources of infection, and how such information can inform context-specific efforts that advance schistosomiasis control efforts and minimize the risk of reemergence.

Prevalence of urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis among school children in South-west Nigeria

Background

The risk of co-infection with Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni and the potential harmful effect on morbidity and control is enhanced by the overlapping distribution of both species in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the reported high endemicity of both species in Nigeria, studies on the spread and effect of their mixed infection are limited. Therefore, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among school children in two communities in South-west Nigeria to investigate the prevalence of mixed human schistosome infection, intensity, and possible ectopic egg elimination.

Methods

Urine and stool samples were collected from consenting school children in Ilie and Ore communities of Osun State, Nigeria. Schistosoma haematobium eggs were detected in urine using the urine filtration technique, while S. mansoni eggs were detected in stool using the Kato–Katz thick smear technique.

Results

The study enrolled 466 primary and secondary school children (211; 45.3% males vs. 255; 54.7% females; mean age 11.6 ± 3.16 years). The overall prevalence of schistosomiasis was 40% (185/466), with 19% (89/466) recording single S. haematobium infection while 9% (41/465) had a single S. mansoni infection. The geometric mean egg count for S. haematobium was 189.4 egg/10ml urine; 95% CI: range 115.9–262.9, while for S. mansoni, it was 115.7 epg; 95% CI: range 78.4–152.9. The prevalence of ectopic S mansoni (S. mansoni eggs in urine) was 4.7%, while no ectopic S. haematobium (S. haematobium eggs in stool) was recorded. Mixed infection of S. haematobium/S. mansoni had a prevalence of 9.5% (44/466). More females (54.5%) presented with S. haematobium/S. mansoni co-infection. For both parasites, males had higher infection intensity, with a significant difference observed with S. haematobium (p = 0.0004). Hematuria was significant in individuals with single S. haematobium infection (p = 0.002), mixed ectopic S. haematobium/S. mansoni (p = 0.009) and mixed S. haematobium/S. mansoni/ectopic S. mansoni (p = 0.0003).

Conclusions

These findings suggest the probability of interspecific interactions between S. haematobium and S. mansoni. Scaling up of mass administration of praziquantel and control measures in the study areas is highly desirable.

In sub-Saharan Africa, human schistosomiasis is a neglected disease of public health concern caused mostly by Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni. The overlapping range of both species in Africa considerably increases the chance of co-infection. School-aged children are the most vulnerable, as they participate in water contact activities that expose them to free-swimming cercariae released by infected snail species in freshwater. This study examined the probable mixed human Schistosoma infections and associated disease variables in school children in the communities of Ilie and Ore in southwest Nigeria. This study reveals a high prevalence of mixed S. haematobium and S. mansoni, and ectopic S. mansoni eggs (S. mansoni eggs in urine) elimination, highlighting the possible ongoing control challenges in this area. Furthermore, this study indicates that some form of inter-specific interaction exists between S. haematobium and S. mansoni, and may produce potentially significant consequences for developing morbidity in the study areas.

Use of geographic information system as a tool for schistosomiasis surveillance in an endemic Municipality in Eastern Samar, The Philippines

This study aimed to demonstrate the use of geographic information systems (GIS) in identifying factors contributing to schistosomiasis endemicity and identifying high-risk areas in a schistosomiasis- endemic municipality in the Philippines, which was devastated by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Data on schistosomiasis determinants, obtained through literature review, the Philippine Department of Health, and concerned local government units, were standardized and incorporated into a GIS map using ArcGIS. Data gathered included modifiable [agriculture, poverty, sanitation, presence of intermediate and reservoir hosts, disease prevalence and mass drug administration (MDA) coverage] and nonmodifiable (geography and climate) determinants for schistosomiasis. Results showed that most barangays (villages) are characterized by favourable conditions for schistosomiasis transmission which include being located in flood-prone areas, presence of vegetation, low sanitary toilet coverage, presence of snail intermediate host, high carabao (water buffalo) population density, previously reported ≥1% prevalence using Kato-Katz technique, and low MDA coverage. Similarly, barangays not known to be endemic for schistosomiasis but also characterized by the same favourable conditions for schistosomiasis as listed above and may therefore be considered as potentially endemic, even if not being high-risk areas. This study demonstrated the importance of GIS technology in characterizing schistosomiasis transmission. Maps generated through application of GIS technology are useful in guiding program policy and planning at the local level for an effective and sustainable schistosomiasis control and prevention.

Spatial scales in human movement between reservoirs of infection

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Simple, yet flexible, model of human movement patterns.

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Analytic formalism which can be used to derive important spatial scales.

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Introduces a novel drift–diffusion approximation for stochastic reservoirs.

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A new critical spatial scale predicted for helminth reservoirs of infection.

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The necessary data needed to test these predictions is outlined in detail.

The life cycle of parasitic organisms that are the cause of much morbidity in humans often depend on reservoirs of infection for transmission into their hosts. Understanding the daily, monthly and yearly movement patterns of individuals between reservoirs is therefore of great importance to implementers of control policies seeking to eliminate various parasitic diseases as a public health problem. This is due to the fact that the underlying spatial extent of the reservoir of infection, which drives transmission, can be strongly affected by inputs from external sources, i.e., individuals who are not spatially attributed to the region defined by the reservoir itself can still migrate and contribute to it. In order to study the importance of these effects, we build and examine a novel theoretical model of human movement between spatially-distributed focal points for infection clustered into regions defined as ‘reservoirs of infection’. Using our model, we vary the spatial scale of human moment defined around focal points and explicitly calculate how varying this definition can influence the temporal stability of the effective transmission dynamics – an effect which should strongly influence how control measures, e.g., mass drug administration (MDA), define evaluation units (EUs). Considering the helminth parasites as our main example, by varying the spatial scale of human movement, we demonstrate that a critical scale exists around infectious focal points at which the migration rate into their associated reservoir can be neglected for practical purposes. This scale varies by species and geographic region, but is generalisable as a concept to infectious reservoirs of varying spatial extents and shapes. Our model is designed to be applicable to a very general pattern of infectious disease transmission modified by the migration of infected individuals between clustered communities. In particular, it may be readily used to study the spatial structure of hosts for macroparasites with temporally stationary distributions of infectious focal point locations over the timescales of interest, which is viable for the soil-transmitted helminths and schistosomes. Additional developments will be necessary to consider diseases with moving reservoirs, such as vector-born filarial worm diseases.

Modelled effects of prawn aquaculture on poverty alleviation and schistosomiasis control

Recent evidence suggests that snail predators may aid efforts to control the human parasitic disease schistosomiasis by eating aquatic snail species that serve as intermediate hosts of the parasite. Potential synergies between schistosomiasis control and aquaculture of giant prawns are evaluated using an integrated bio-economic-epidemiologic model. Combinations of stocking density and aquaculture cycle length that maximize cumulative, discounted profit are identified for two prawn species in sub-Saharan Africa: the endemic, non-domesticated Macrobrachium vollenhovenii, and the non-native, domesticated Macrobrachium rosenbergii. At profit maximizing densities, both M. rosenbergii and M. vollenhovenii may substantially reduce intermediate host snail populations and aid schistosomiasis control efforts. Control strategies drawing on both prawn aquaculture to reduce intermediate host snail populations and mass drug administration to treat infected individuals are found to be superior to either strategy alone. Integrated aquaculture-based interventions can be a win-win strategy in terms of health and sustainable development in schistosomiasis endemic regions of the world.

Identification of transmission foci of Schistosoma mansoni: narrowing the intervention target from district to transmission focus in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Schistosoma mansoni (S. mansoni) infection is a significant public health problem in Ethiopia, and has wide distribution in the country. The impact of the disease is particularly high on school-age children. Nationwide 385 endemic districts were identified, whereby control and elimination interventions are underway using school-based annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel. The national elimination program targets endemic districts as a whole. The aim of this study was to identify the transmission foci of Schistosoma mansoni and determine prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in Abeshge district.

METHODS

The study was conducted from April to May, 2019 among school-age children randomly selected from public elementary schools in Abeshge district, South-central Ethiopia. Demographic information and data on risk factors of S. mansoni infection were gathered using pre-tested questionnaire. Moreover, a stool sample was collected from each child and examined using Kato-Katz thick smear technique. The data were analyzed using STATA_MP version 12.

RESULTS

A total of 389 school-age children from five public elementary schools were included in the study. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni and STHs was 19.3% (75/389) and 35% (136/389), respectively. The prevalence of S. mansoni was 60.6% in Kulit Elementary school, while it was zero in Geraba. The prevalence of S. mansoni was significantly higher among males (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.1), those with habit of swimming and/or bathing in rivers (AOR = 2.9, 95%CI 1.3-5.1) and involved in irrigation activities (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.0-8.3). Overall, the prevalence of S. mansoni was significantly higher among school children attending Kulit Elementary School compared to those attending the remaining schools (AOR = 12.5, 95%CI 6.2-25.1).

CONCLUSION

A wide variation of S. mansoni prevalence was observed among the school children in the different schools. Control interventions better identify and target foci of S. mansoni transmission, instead of targeting the district homogenously.

Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.

Influences of Land-Use Dynamics and Surface Water Systems Interactions on Water-Related Infectious Diseases—A Systematic Review

Human interactions with surface water systems, through land-use dynamics, can influence the transmission of infectious water-related diseases. As a result, the aim of our study was to explore and examine the state of scientific evidence on the influences of these interactions on water-related infectious disease outcomes from a global perspective. A systematic review was conducted, using 54 peer-reviewed research articles published between 1995 and August 2019. The study revealed that there has been an increase in the number of publications since 2009; however, few of these publications (n = 6) made explicit linkages to the topic. It was found that urban and agricultural land-use changes had relatively high adverse impacts on water quality, due to high concentrations of fecal matter, heavy metals, and nutrients in surface water systems. Water systems were found as the common “vehicle” for infectious disease transmission, which in turn had linkages to sanitation and hygiene conditions. The study found explicit linkages between human–surface water interaction patterns and the transmission of water-based disease. However, weak and complex linkages were found between land-use change and the transmission of water-borne disease, due to multiple pathways and the dynamics of the other determinants of the disease. Therefore, further research studies, using interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches to investigate and enhance a deeper understanding of these complexities and linkages among land use, surface water quality, and water-related infectious diseases, is crucial in developing integrated measures for sustainable water quality monitoring and diseases prevention.

River network connectivity and fish diversity

Frequent and severe disruptions of natural river flows associated with human activities significantly alter hydrological connectivity in large river networks, with deleterious effects on fish diversity. Understanding the relationship between fish diversity and river network connectivity is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. Here, we provide a review of the mechanisms by which river network connectivity (RNC) affects fish diversity. We review the relationships between forms, systems and types of RNC and fish diversity, based on more than 100 previous studies. In summary, sustaining RNC promotes fish diversity in longitudinal and lateral axes, and species sorting, dispersal dynamics, and habitat availability are the main factors driving the distribution of fish diversity, followed by nutrition and trophic dynamics. Our work highlights the effects of RNC on fish diversity, and provides a mechanistic understanding of how RNC affects fish diversity across river basins, thus providing scientific guidance for protecting fish biodiversity and improving the health of river network ecosystems.

Unavoidable Risks: Local Perspectives on Water Contact Behavior and Implications for Schistosomiasis Control in an Agricultural Region of Northern Senegal

Human schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease affecting more than 200 million people worldwide. Direct contact with snail-infested freshwater is the primary route of exposure. Water management infrastructure, including dams and irrigation schemes, expands snail habitat, increasing the risk across the landscape. The Diama Dam, built on the lower basin of the Senegal River to prevent saltwater intrusion and promote year-round agriculture in the drought-prone Sahel, is a paradigmatic case. Since dam completion in 1986, the rural population-whose livelihoods rely mostly on agriculture-has suffered high rates of schistosome infection. The region remains one of the most hyperendemic regions in the world. Because of the convergence between livelihoods and environmental conditions favorable to transmission, schistosomiasis is considered an illustrative case of a disease-driven poverty trap (DDPT). The literature to date on the topic, however, remains largely theoretical. With qualitative data generated from 12 focus groups in four villages, we conducted team-based theme analysis to investigate how perception of schistosomiasis risk and reported preventive behaviors may suggest the presence of a DDPT. Our analysis reveals three key findings: 1) rural villagers understand schistosomiasis risk (i.e., where and when infections occur), 2) accordingly, they adopt some preventive behaviors, but ultimately, 3) exposure persists, because of circumstances characteristic of rural livelihoods. These findings highlight the capacity of local populations to participate actively in schistosomiasis control programs and the limitations of widespread drug treatment campaigns. Interventions that target the environmental reservoir of disease may provide opportunities to reduce exposure while maintaining resource-dependent livelihoods.

Human population movement can impede the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth transmission in regions with heterogeneity in mass drug administration coverage and transmission potential between villages: a metapopulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections affect predominantly socio-economically disadvantaged populations in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Americas. Previous mathematical modelling studies have evaluated optimal intervention strategies to break STH transmission in clusters of villages. These studies assumed that villages are closed independent units with no movement of people in or out of communities. Here we examine how human population movement, for example, of seasonal migrant labourers, affect the outcome of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes.

RESULTS

We used a stochastic individual-based metapopulation model to analyse the impact of human population movement at varying rates on STH elimination efforts. Specifically, we looked at seasonal clumped movement events of infected individuals into a village. We showed that even if on average 75% of the entire resident population within a village are treated, an annual rate of 2-3% of the population arriving from an untreated source village can reduce the probability of STH elimination to less than 50% in high-prevalence settings. If a village is infection-free, an annual movement rate of 2-3% from an infected source village imposes a risk of re-introduction of STH of 75% or higher, unless the prevalence in the source village is less than 20%. Even a single arrival of 2-3% of the population can impose a risk of re-introducing STH of 50% or greater depending on the prevalence in the source village. The risk of re-introduction also depends on both the age group of moving individuals and STH species, since the pattern of cross-sectional age-prevalence and age-intensity profiles of infection in the human host are species-specific.

CONCLUSIONS

Planning for STH elimination programmes should account for human mobility patterns in defined regions. We recommend that individuals arriving from areas with ongoing STH transmission should receive preventive chemotherapy for STHs. This can most easily be implemented if migration is seasonal and overlaps with treatment rounds, e.g. seasonal migrant labour. Moreover, transmission hotspots in or near treatment clusters should be eliminated, for example, by implementing appropriate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) measures and targeting treatment to individuals living in hotspots.

Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems

Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epidemiological conditions, water-mediated pathogen transport and human mobility. In this work, we apply a spatially explicit network model describing the transmission cycle of waterborne pathogens to determine invasion conditions in metacommunities endowed with a realistic spatial structure. Specifically, we aim to define conditions under which pathogens can temporarily colonize a set of human communities, thus triggering a transient epidemic outbreak. To that end, we apply generalized reactivity analysis, a recently developed methodological framework for the study of transient dynamics in ecological systems subject to external perturbations. The study of pathogen invasion is complemented by the detection of the spatial signatures associated with the perturbations to a disease-free system that are expected to be amplified the most over different time scales. Understanding the drivers of waterborne disease dynamics over time scales that are relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a crucial, cross-disciplinary challenge, as large portions of the developing world still struggle to cope with the burden of these infections.

Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases

Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections.

River networks as ecological corridors: A coherent ecohydrological perspective

This paper draws together several lines of argument to suggest that an ecohydrological framework, i.e. laboratory, field and theoretical approaches focused on hydrologic controls on biota, has contributed substantially to our understanding of the function of river networks as ecological corridors. Such function proves relevant to: the spatial ecology of species; population dynamics and biological invasions; the spread of waterborne disease. As examples, we describe metacommunity predictions of fish diversity patterns in the Mississippi-Missouri basin, geomorphic controls imposed by the fluvial landscape on elevational gradients of species' richness, the zebra mussel invasion of the same Mississippi-Missouri river system, and the spread of proliferative kidney disease in salmonid fish. We conclude that spatial descriptions of ecological processes in the fluvial landscape, constrained by their specific hydrologic and ecological dynamics and by the ecosystem matrix for interactions, i.e. the directional dispersal embedded in fluvial and host/pathogen mobility networks, have already produced a remarkably broad range of significant results. Notable scientific and practical perspectives are thus open, in the authors' view, to future developments in ecohydrologic research.

To Reduce the Global Burden of Human Schistosomiasis, Use 'Old Fashioned' Snail Control

Control strategies to reduce human schistosomiasis have evolved from 'snail picking' campaigns, a century ago, to modern wide-scale human treatment campaigns, or preventive chemotherapy. Unfortunately, despite the rise in preventive chemotherapy campaigns, just as many people suffer from schistosomiasis today as they did 50 years ago. Snail control can complement preventive chemotherapy by reducing the risk of transmission from snails to humans. Here, we present ideas for modernizing and scaling up snail control, including spatiotemporal targeting, environmental diagnostics, better molluscicides, new technologies (e.g., gene drive), and 'outside the box' strategies such as natural enemies, traps, and repellants. We conclude that, to achieve the World Health Assembly's stated goal to eliminate schistosomiasis, it is time to give snail control another look.

Heterogeneity in schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

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Transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis presents multiple heterogeneity sources.

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A comprehensive framework for heterogeneous disease transmission is proposed.

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Heterogeneous multigroup communities can be more prone to parasite transmission.

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Presence of multiple water sources can hinder parasite transmission.

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Spatial and temporal heterogeneities can have nontrivial implications for endemicity.

Simple models of disease propagation often disregard the effects of transmission heterogeneity on the ecological and epidemiological dynamics associated with host-parasite interactions. However, for some diseases like schistosomiasis, a widespread parasitic infection caused by Schistosoma worms, accounting for heterogeneity is crucial to both characterize long-term dynamics and evaluate opportunities for disease control. Elaborating on the classic Macdonald model for macroparasite transmission, we analyze families of models including explicit descriptions of heterogeneity related to differential transmission risk within a community, water contact patterns, the distribution of the snail host population, human mobility, and the seasonal fluctuations of the environment. Through simple numerical examples, we show that heterogeneous multigroup communities may be more prone to schistosomiasis than homogeneous ones, that the availability of multiple water sources can hinder parasite transmission, and that both spatial and temporal heterogeneities may have nontrivial implications for disease endemicity. Finally, we discuss the implications of heterogeneity for disease control. Although focused on schistosomiasis, results from this study may apply as well to other parasitic infections with complex transmission cycles, such as cysticercosis, dracunculiasis and fasciolosis.

Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic infection that is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, where it represents a major health problem. We study the drivers of its geographical distribution in Senegal via a spatially explicit network model accounting for epidemiological dynamics driven by local socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and human mobility. The model is parameterized by tapping several available geodatabases and a large dataset of mobile phone traces. It reliably reproduces the observed spatial patterns of regional schistosomiasis prevalence throughout the country, provided that spatial heterogeneity and human mobility are suitably accounted for. Specifically, a fine-grained description of the socioeconomic and environmental heterogeneities involved in local disease transmission is crucial to capturing the spatial variability of disease prevalence, while the inclusion of human mobility significantly improves the explanatory power of the model. Concerning human movement, we find that moderate mobility may reduce disease prevalence, whereas either high or low mobility may result in increased prevalence of infection. The effects of control strategies based on exposure and contamination reduction via improved access to safe water or educational campaigns are also analyzed. To our knowledge, this represents the first application of an integrative schistosomiasis transmission model at a whole-country scale.