Prognostic value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction score for 1-year mortality in 30-day survivors who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention after acute myocardial infarction

Integrating platelet reactivity in the age, creatinine and ejection fraction score to predict clinical outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with chronic coronary syndrome: the PR-ACEF score

To evaluate if integrating platelet reactivity (PR) evaluation in the original age, creatinine and ejection fraction (ACEF) score could improve the diagnostic accuracy of the model in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). We enrolled patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention between 2010 and 2011. High PR was included in the model (PR-ACEF). Co-primary end points were a composite of death/myocardial infarction (MI) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Overall, 471 patients were enrolled. Compared to the ACEF score, the PR-ACEF showed an improved diagnostic accuracy for death/MI (AUC 0.610 vs 0.670, p < 0.001) and MACE (AUC 0.572 vs 0.634, p < 0.001). These findings were confirmed using internal validation with bootstrap resampling. At 5 years, the PR-ACEF value > 1.75 was independently associated with death/MI [HR 3.51, 95% CI (1.97-6.23)] and MACE [HR 2.77, 95% CI (1.69-4.53)]. The PR-ACEF score was effective in improving the diagnostic performance of the ACEF score at the long-term follow-up.

Development and validation of a model integrating clinical and coronary lesion-based functional assessment for long-term risk prediction in PCI patients

OBJECTIVES

To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio (QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, a total of 46 features, including patient clinical and coronary lesion characteristics, were assessed for analysis through machine learning models. The ACEF-QFR scoring system was developed using 1263 consecutive cases of CAD patients after PCI in PANDA III trial database. The newly developed score was then validated on the other remaining 542 patients in the cohort.

RESULTS

In both the Random Forest Model and the DeepSurv Model, age, renal function (creatinine), cardiac function (LVEF) and post-PCI coronary physiological index (QFR) were identified and confirmed to be significant predictive factors for 2-year adverse cardiac events. The ACEF-QFR score was constructed based on the developmental dataset and computed as age (years)/EF (%) + 1 (if creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/dL) + 1 (if post-PCI QFR ≤ 0.92). The performance of the ACEF-QFR scoring system was preliminarily evaluated in the developmental dataset, and then further explored in the validation dataset. The ACEF-QFR score showed superior discrimination (C-statistic = 0.651; 95% CI: 0.611-0.691, P < 0.05 versus post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores) and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 7.070; P = 0.529) for predicting 2-year patient-oriented composite endpoint (POCE). The good prognostic value of the ACEF-QFR score was further validated by multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis (adjusted HR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.18-3.04; log-rank P < 0.01) after stratified the patients into high-risk group and low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

An improved scoring system combining clinical and coronary lesion-based functional variables (ACEF-QFR) was developed, and its ability for prognostic prediction in patients with PCI was further validated to be significantly better than the post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores.

Performance of Prognostic Scoring Systems in MINOCA: A Comparison among GRACE, TIMI, HEART, and ACEF Scores

Background: the prognosis of patients with myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is not benign; thus, prompting the need to validate prognostic scoring systems for this population. Aim: to evaluate and compare the prognostic performance of GRACE, TIMI, HEART, and ACEF scores in MINOCA patients. Methods: A total of 250 MINOCA patients from January 2017 to September 2021 were included. For each patient, the four scores at admission were retrospectively calculated. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at 1-year follow-up. The ability to predict 1-year all-cause death was also tested. Results: Overall, the tested scores presented a sub-optimal performance in predicting the composite major adverse event in MINOCA patients, showing an AUC ranging between 0.7 and 0.8. Among them, the GRACE score appeared to be the best in predicting all-cause death, reaching high specificity with low sensitivity. The best cut-off identified for the GRACE score was 171, higher compared to the cut-off of 140 generally applied to identify high-risk patients with obstructive AMI. When the scores were tested for prediction of 1-year all-cause death, the GRACE and the ACEF score showed very good accuracy (AUC = 0.932 and 0.828, respectively). Conclusion: the prognostic scoring tools, validated in AMI cohorts, could be useful even in MINOCA patients, although their performance appeared sub-optimal, prompting the need for risk assessment tools specific to MINOCA patients.

Age-Bilirubin-International Normalized Ratio (INR)-Creatinine (ABIC) Score, a Potential Prognostic Model for Long-Term Mortality of CAD Patients After PCI

Background

Given that age, international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin, and creatinine are reported to be independent risk factors for predicting outcome in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), it is possible that the age-bilirubin-INR-creatinine (ABIC) score might be a potential prognostic model for patients with CAD.

Methods

A total of 6046 CAD patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from the retrospective cohort study (Identifier: ChiCTR-ORC-16010153) were evaluated finally. The primary outcome long-term mortality and secondary endpoints mainly major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) were recorded. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine risk factors for mortality and MACCEs.

Results

The ABIC score was significantly higher in the death group than in the survival group. After adjusting for other CAD risk factors, the ABIC score was identified to be an independent risk factor for long-term mortality by multivariate Cox analysis. When in the high ABIC group, the incidence of all-cause mortality would increased 1.7 times (adjusted HR=1.729 (1.347-2.218), P<0.001), and 1.5 times for cardiac death (adjusted HR=1.482 (1.126-1.951), P=0.005).

Conclusion

The present study indicated that ABIC score≥7.985 predicts high long-term mortality and cardiac death risk for PCI patients. The ABIC score might be a potential prognostic model for patients with PCI.

Predictive value of ACEF score for clinical prognosis of patients with heavily calcified coronary lesions after percutaneous coronary intervention with rotational atherectomy

Background

To inquiry the predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score for cardiac mortality in patients diagnosed with heavily calcified coronary lesions at 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with rotational atherectomy (RA).

Methods

275 patients with heavily calcified coronary lesions undergoing PCI with RA in the Department of Cardiology of Anhui Provincial Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019 were consecutively recruited. The primary endpoint event was cardiac death at postoperative 1 year. The ROC curve was used to assess ACEF scoring system and predict cardiac mortality.

Results

In term of ACEF score upon admission, 275 patients were divided into low-to-intermediate risk group (n = 130) with ACEF score < 1.23 and high-risk group (n = 145) with ACEF score ≥ 1.23. The age, gender proportion and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) have a significant difference between the low-to-intermediate risk group and the high-risk group (all P < 0.05). The area under ROC curve for ACEF scoring system to predict cardiac mortality at 1 year after PCI with RA was 0.756 and 0.715, respectively.

Conclusions

ACEF value upon admission can predict the cardiac mortality at 1 year following PCI with RA in heavily calcified coronary lesions patients.

Blood Routine Test Parameters Score, a Novel Predictor of Adverse Outcomes of Coronary Artery Disease Patients with or without Diabetes Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In this study, we developed a novel risk score named the blood routine test parameters (BRTP) score to predict the clinical outcomes in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients who had undergone percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

There were 6049 patients with CAD after PCI enrolled in CORFCHD-PCI from January 2008 to December 2016. We divided these patients into two groups according to diabetes (diabetic group, n = 3809, and nondiabetic group, n = 2240). During a follow-up time of 35.9 ± 22.6 months, we compared the incidences of all-cause mortality (ACM) and cardiac mortality (CM), which were assigned as the primary outcomes between patients with a high BRTP score (≥5 points) and those with a low BRTP score (<5 points).

RESULTS

We found that the BRTP score independently predicted the risk for ACM and CM in both diabetic patients [ACM, hazard risk (HR) = 1.748 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.186-2.575), P = 0.005; CM, HR = 1.728 (95% CI: 1.120-2.667), P = 0.014] and nondiabetic patients [ACM, HR = 1.682 (95% CI: 1.208-2.340), P = 0.002; CM, HR = 1.718 (95% CI: 1.188-2.484), P = 0.004]. However, the BRTP score was found to be an independent predictor for major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event (MACCE) in diabetic patients [MACE, HR = 1.366 (95% CI: 1.076-1.734), P = 0.010; MACCE, HR = 1.330 (95% CI: 1.035-1.710), P = 0.026] but not in nondiabetic patients [MACE, HR = 1.241 (95% CI: 0.994-1.549), P = 0.056; MACCE, HR = 1.238 (95% CI: 0.981-1.562), P = 0.072].

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the BRTP score is an independent and novel predictor of mortality in CAD patients who had undergone PCI, especially in patients with comorbidity of diabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ChiCTR-ROC-16010153. Registered 14, December, 2016.

Management and 30-Day Mortality of Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Resource-Limited Setting: Insight From Ethiopia. A Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Despite the fact that the burden, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have been studied widely in developed countries, limited data are available from sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed at evaluating the clinical characteristics, treatment, and 30-day mortality of patients with ACS admitted to tertiary hospitals in Ethiopia. Methods: A total of 181 ACS patients admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia were enrolled from March 15 to November 15, 2018. The clinical characteristics, management, and 30-day mortality were evaluated by ACS subtype. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The majority (61%) of ACS patients were admitted with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The mean age was 56 years, with male predominance (62.4%). More than two-thirds (67.4%) of patients presented to hospital after 12 h of symptom onset. Dyslipidemia (48%) and hypertension (44%) were the most common risk factors identified. In-hospital dual antiplatelet and statin use was high (>90%), followed by beta-blockers (81%) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs; 72%). Late reperfusion with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was done for only 13 (7.2%), and none of the patients received early reperfusion therapy. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 25.4%. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, older age [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.003-1.057], systolic blood pressure (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.975-1.000), serum creatinine (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.056-1.643), Killip class > II (HR = 4.62, 95% CI = 2.502-8.523), ejection fraction <40% (HR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.463-5.162), and STEMI (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.006-4.261) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Conclusions: The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was unacceptably high, which implies an urgent need to establish a nationwide program to reduce pre-hospital delay, promoting the use of guideline-directed medications, and increasing access to reperfusion therapy.

Predictive value of the combination of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction score and diabetes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

This study investigated whether the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score [age (years) /ejection fraction (%) +1 (if creatinine>176μmol/L)] could predict 1-year outcomes following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention, and whether accuracy could be improved by establishing novel ACEF-derived risk models.

Methods:

A total of 1146 patients were included. The study endpoint was 1-year major adverse cardio-cerebrovascular events, including all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unplanned revascularization, and nonfatal stroke. Accuracy was defined with area under the curve by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results:

The incidence of 1-year major adverse cardio-cerebrovascular event increased with the rising age, creatinine, and ejection fraction score tertiles (4.8%, 8.4%, and 15.2%, P < 0.001 for all). Higher ACEF score was significantly associated with an increased risk of the endpoint in overall (odds ratio = 3.75, 95% confidence interval, 2.44–5.77, P < 0.001) and in subgroups (all P < 0.05). The accuracy of the ACEF score was equivalent to the other complex risk scores. The combination of ACEF, and diabetes (ACEF-diabetes score) yielded a superior discriminatory ability than the original ACEF score (increase in C-statistic from 0.67 to 0.71, P = 0.048; continuous net reclassification improvement = 51.9%, 95% confidence interval, 33.4–70.5%, P < 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement = 0.020, 95% confidence interval, 0.011–0.030, P < 0.001).

Conclusions:

The simplified ACEF score performed well in predicting 1-year outcomes in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. The novel ACEF-diabetes score provided a better predictive value and thus may help stratify high-risk patients and potentially facilitate decision making.

Predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction score in patients with myocardial infarction with nonobstructive coronary arteries

BACKGROUND

Little is known about risk stratification in patients with myocardial infarction with nonobstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA). We investigated whether the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score (age [years]/ejection fraction [%] + 1 [if creatinine >176 μmol/L]) might predict long-term outcomes after MINOCA.

HYPOTHESIS

The ACEF score enables accurate risk prediction in patients with MINOCA.

METHODS

A total of 1179 patients with MINOCA were enrolled and divided based on their ACEF score tertile levels. The primary endpoint was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause death, nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, revascularization, and hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed. Discrimination was defined as the area under the curve (AUC) using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 41.7 months, patients with MINOCA with higher ACEF score tertiles had a significantly higher incidence of MACE (6.3%, 12.5%, and 23.8%, respectively; p < .001). The adjusted risk of MACE increased with the rising ACEF score tertiles (1st tertile as reference; 2nd tertile: HR 2.70, 95% CI: 1.38-5.29, p = .004; and 3rd tertile: HR 5.35, 95% CI: 2.72-10.51, p < .001). Moreover, an elevated ACEF score was closely associated with an increased risk of MACE overall (HR 4.23, 95% CI: 3.37-5.30, p < .001) and in subgroups (all p < .05). The ACEF score also yielded a good predictive value (AUC 0.79) for MACE.

CONCLUSION

Elevated ACEF scores were strongly associated with a poor prognosis after MINOCA. This simple and valid risk score may facilitate risk stratification and decision making in the population with MINOCA.

Prediction of 5-Year Mortality in Patients with Chronic Coronary Syndrome Treated with Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Role of the ACEF Score

We evaluated the predictive power of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score on mortality at 5-year follow-up in a population of 471 patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients in the ACEF-High tertile showed the highest incidence of death at 5 years (15.7% vs. 2.6% in ACEF-Low and 4.3% in ACEF-Mid; log rank p<0.001). The ACEF score could significantly discriminate between patients who died and those who were still alive at 5 years (AUC 0.741, 95% CI 0.654-0.828), and an ACEF score >1.32 was identified as the optimal cutoff point to predict 5-year mortality (sensitivity 74%, specificity 68%). An ACEF score >1.32 was an independent predictor of 5-year mortality (HR 5.77, 95% CI 2.70-12.31; p<0.001). Our study shows that the ACEF score can predict mortality at 5-year follow-up in patients with CCS treated with PCI.

Predictive Value of the Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) Score in Patients With Acute Fulminant Myocarditis

Objective

Patients with acute fulminant myocarditis often have more adverse cardiovascular events and higher mortality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of age, creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction (ACEF score), in determining the risk that acute fulminant myocarditis will lead to serious cardiovascular events, death, and cardiac dysfunction.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the demographics, laboratory tests, medications, echocardiographic examinations, in-hospital clinical outcomes, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and survival rate at 1 year in the medical records of 220 consecutive subjects suffering from acute fulminant myocarditis from January 2013 to June 2019.

Results

Two hundred twenty patients were divided into a survivor group and a non-survivor group. This study found that patients in the non-survivor group were older, had higher heart rates, and had more serious injuries to multiple organ functions. A high ACEF score at admission was independently associated with an unfavorable prognosis, and it was a predictor of in-hospital mortality. The current analysis extends the predictive performance of the ACEF scores at 30 days by evaluating echocardiographic data as applied to survivors of fulminant myocarditis and cumulative rates of MACE at 1 year. The results indicated that patients with high ACEF scores had poor recovery of cardiac function, and higher rates of MACE, all-cause death, and heart failure at 1 year than the low-ACEF group.

Conclusion

The ACEF score was identified as an effective predictor of poor in-hospital outcomes, worse cardiac recovery after 30 days, and higher rates of MACE, all-cause death, and heart failure at 1 year in patients who had acute fulminant myocarditis. These data suggest that its predictive accuracy means the ACEF score could be used to assess the prognosis of patients with acute fulminant myocarditis.

ACEF performed better than other risk scores in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome during long term follow-up

Background

Risk stratification of patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important clinical method, but long-term studies on patients subjected to all-treatment strategies are lacking. Therefore, the aim was to compare several established risk scores in the all-treatment NSTE-ACS cohort during long-term follow-up.

Methods

Consecutive patients (n = 276) with NSTE-ACS undergoing coronary angiography were recruited between September 2012 and May 2015. Six risk scores for all patients were calculated, namely GRACE 2.0, ACEF, SYNTAX, Clinical SYNTAX, SYNTAX II PCI and SYNTAX II CABG. The primary end-point was Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) which was a composite of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke or urgent coronary revascularization.

Results

During a median follow-up of 33 months, 64 MACE outcomes were recorded (23.2%). There was no difference between risk score categories, except in the highest risk group of ACEF and SYNTAX II PCI scores which exhibited significantly more MACE (51.6%, N = 33 and 45.3%, N = 29, P = 0.024, respectively). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis of individual variables, only age and atrial fibrillation were significant predictors for MACE (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.05, P = 0.023 and HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.04–3.89, P = 0.037, respectively). Furthermore, multivariate analysis of the risk scores showed significant prediction of MACE only with ACEF score (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.36–3.44, P = 0.001). The overall performance of GRACE, SYNTAX, Clinical SYNTAX and SYNTAX II CABG was poor with AUC values of 0.596, 0.507, 0.530 and 0.582, respectively, while ACEF and SYNTAX II PCI showed the best absolute AUC values for MACE (0.630 and 0.626, respectively).

Conclusions

ACEF risk score showed better discrimination than other risk scores in NSTE-ACS patients undergoing all-treatment strategies over long-term follow-up and it could represent a fast and user-friendly tool to stratify NSTE-ACS patients.

Presence of ear lobe crease may predict intermediate and high-risk patients with acute non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome

Introduction: Ear lobe crease (ELC) was first described in 1973 as a physical examination finding indicating significant coronary artery disease (CAD). Several studies have been carried out in relation to this finding, and it has been shown that it is a marker of intima-media thickness, carotid artery disease, and CAD. We aimed to investigate the relationship between earlobe crease, which is a simple physical examination finding, and GRACE score as a risk estimation index in acute coronary syndromes without ST-segment elevation (NSTE-ACS) patients.

Methods: 360 patients (mean age 62.2 years, 70% male) were included in our study. Patients were divided into two groups of GRACE scores ≤ 109 and >109, 167 patients were enrolled in group 1, and193 cases in group 2.

Results: The group 2 patients were older, had higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels, a higher rate of hypertension, higher glucose levels, lower creatinine clearance levels, higher initial and peak troponin levels, lower hemoglobin levels, lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and higher Gensini scores than the patients in group 1. The higher GRACE score group had markedly increased frequencies of ELC compared to the lower GRACE score group (80.8% vs. 24.5%, respectively, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The presence of ELC may predict moderate to high risk group of patients with NSTEACS.

Correlation between serum free triiodothyronine levels and risk stratification in Chinese patients with acute coronary syndrome receiving percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVE

Low serum free triiodothyronine (FT3) levels are associated with the occurrence of coronary heart disease and with the prognosis of cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between FT3 levels and risk stratification in Chinese Han patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treatment.

METHODS

Plasma FT3 levels and other parameters were measured in 191 patients with ACS who received PCI. The risk of adverse cardiovascular events was assessed using the Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) score.

RESULTS

FT3 levels were significantly lower in the high-risk group than in the medium- and low-risk groups. Serum FT3 levels were negatively linearly correlated with the ACEF score (r = -0.590). Stepwise regression analysis showed a negative correlation between FT3 levels and the risk of adverse cardiovascular events as measured by the ACEF score (standardized β = -0.261).

CONCLUSION

Serum FT3 levels are negatively related to risk stratification in patients with ACS. Serum FT3 levels may be used as a potential predictor for adverse outcomes of patients with ACS undergoing PCI.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate predicts 30-day mortality in medical emergency departments: Results of a prospective multi-national observational study

BACKGROUND

Renal failure is common in patients seeking help in medical emergency departments. Decreased renal function is associated with increased mortality in patients with heart failure or sepsis. In this study, the association between renal function (reflected by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the time of admission) and clinical outcome was evaluated.

METHODS/OBJECTIVES

Data was used from a prospective, multi-national, observational cohort of patients treated in three medical emergency departments of tertiary care centers. The eGFR was calculated from the creatinine at the time of admission (using the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equation,CKD-EPI). Uni- and multivariate regression models were used for eGFR and 30-day mortality, in hospital mortality, length of stay and intensive care unit admission rate.

RESULTS

6983 patients were included. The 30-day mortality was 1.8%, 3.5%, 6.9%, 11.1%, 13.6%, and 14.2% in patients with eGFR of above 90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 ml/min/1.73m2, respectively. Using multivariate regression, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 2.31 (for 15-29 ml/min/1.73m2, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 3.90, p = 0.002) and 3.73 (for eGFR <15ml/min/1.73m2 as compared to >90 ml/min/1.73m2, 95% CI 2.04 to 6.84, p<0.001). For 10 ml/min/1.73m2 decrease in eGFR the OR for the 30-day mortality was 1.15 (95% CI1.09 to 1.22, p<0.001).The eGFR was also significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, the percentage of ICU-admissions, and with a longer hospital stay. No association was found with hospital readmission within 30 days. As limitations, only eGFR at admission was available and the number of patients on hemodialysis was unknown.

CONCLUSION

Reduced eGFR at the time of admission is a strong and independent predictor for adverse outcome in this large population of patients admitted to medical emergency departments.

Novel biochemical predictors of unfavorable prognosis for stable coronary disease

Successful risk stratification is necessary for optimum management of patients after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of novel biochemical markers in the prediction of adverse cardiovascular events in stable patients several years after ACS.The study group was randomly selected from all ACS patients treated with reperfusion therapy between 2002 and 2003 at 1st Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Warsaw, Poland. All patients were readmitted to hospital between 2010 and 2011 for clinical and biochemical cardiovascular risk factors assessment and were prospectively observed for 30-months follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause death or hospital readmissions due to a cardiovascular condition at 30 months. The secondary endpoint was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization-related noncardiovascular condition during the follow-up.The study population consisted of 146 patients (mean age 66.6 ± 9.8 years; 60 female). The primary and secondary endpoints occurred in 49 and 65 patients, respectively. Univariate analysis demonstrated that out of 17 analyzed biomarkers only high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), Soluble Fms-Like Tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), and endothelin-1 (ET-1) were significantly associated with primary end-point and N-Terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), hsCRP, ET-1, sFlt-1, and procalcitonin (PCT)-with secondary end-point. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that concentration of sFlt-1 was the only independent factor associated with primary end-point (P = .007 and P = .025, respectively), whereas NT-proBNP and hsCRP levels were only associated with secondary end-point (P = .004 and P = .001, respectively).sFlt-1, NT-proBNP, and hsCRP are associated with adverse outcomes in stable patients several years after ACS and may emerge as useful clinical biomarkers to enhance stratify patient's risk.

Additive Prognostic Value of Carotid Plaque Score to Enhance the Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction Score in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Aim: To assess whether combining measurements obtained from carotid ultrasonography in addition to the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score would improve the predictive ability of outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods: We examined 264 patients with ACS (194 men; mean age: 68 ± 11 years) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. The carotid plaque score (cPS) and intima–media thickness (cIMT) were determined by carotid ultrasonography. The modified ACEF score was calculated using the following formula: (age/left ventricular ejection fraction) +1 point for every 10 mL/min reduction in creatinine clearance below 60 mL/min per 1.73 m². The endpoint of this study was major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACEs), defined as all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stoke, and target vessel revascularization.

Results: During the median 4-year follow-up, there were 121 incidents of MACEs. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that cPS ≥ 9.8 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–2.31) and ACEF score ≥ 1.20 (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.11–2.39) were significantly associated with MACEs, whereas cIMT was not. When the new combined risk score was calculated by multiplying the cPS by the modified ACEF score, the freedom from MACEs at 5 years was 71% and 31% for the lower and higher scores, respectively (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for MACEs for the ACEF score, cPS, and combined risk score were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.71, respectively (p < 0.05).

Conclusion: The cPS offers an incremental predictive value when combined to the simple ACEF score in ACS.

Predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score in patients with acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

This study sought to investigate the predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The ACEF score (age/left ventricular ejection fraction +1 [if creatinine > 176 μmol/L]) has been established in patients evaluated for coronary artery bypass surgery. Data on its predictive value in all-comer ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention are scarce.

METHODS

A total of 1901 patients prospectively enrolled in the Swiss ACS Cohort were included in the analysis. Optimal ACEF score cut-off values were calculated by decision tree analysis, and patients divided into low-risk (≤1.45), intermediate-risk (>1.45 and ≤2.0), and high-risk groups (>2.0). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) included all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, clinically indicated repeat coronary revascularization, definite stent thrombosis, and transient ischemic attack/stroke.

RESULTS

One-year rates of all-cause death increased across ACEF score groups (1.6% versus 5.6% versus 23.0%, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the ACEF score was related with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 3.53, 95% CI 2.90-4.31, p < 0.001), MACCE (adjusted HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.88-2.65, p < 0.001), and transient ischemic attack/stroke (adjusted HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.71-3.89, p < 0.001) at 1 year. Rates of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major and Global use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) severe bleeding paralleled the increased ischemic risk across the groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ACEF score is a simple and useful risk stratification tool in patients with ACS referred for coronary revascularization.

Prognostic value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction score for non-infarct-related chronic total occlusion revascularization after primary percutaneous intervention in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients: A retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

It is not known if ACEF scores could evaluate the prognosis of recanalization of non-infarct-related coronary arteries (non-IRA) with chronic total occlusions (CTO) in patients who successfully underwent primary PCI. The objective of the current study was to assess the prognostic value of ACEF scores in acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with non-IRA CTO after successful primary PCI.

METHODS

There were 2952 STEMI patients who underwent successful primary PCI from January 2006 to December 2014 in our hospital, among them 377 patients had a non-IRA CTO lesion. The patients were divided into successful CTO-PCI group (n = 221) and failed/non-attempted CTO-PCI group (n = 156). Patients were stratified based on the ACEF tertiles. Primary end points measured in the current study were major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined as the composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemia-driven coronary revascularization and hospitalization for heart failure at 1 year.

RESULTS

The incidence of MACE, all-cause death and cardiac death were higher in the failed/non-attempted CTO-PCI group (P < 0.001). In the successful CTO-PCI group, the cumulative 1-year incidences of MACE and all-cause death were decreased compared to those in the failed/non-attempted CTO-PCI group (log-rank P < 0.001). The risk for MACE was reduced in the successful CTO-PCI group compared to the failed/non-attempted CTO-PCI group in patients with low and intermediate ACEF scores (log-rank P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Successfully staged CTO-PCI could gain advantageous clinical outcomes in those patients with low or intermediate ACEF scores.

Differences in the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry Compared with Western Registries

The Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR) is the first nationwide registry that reflects current therapeutic approaches and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) management in Korea. The results of the KAMIR demonstrated different risk factors and responses to medical and interventional treatments. The results indicated that the incidence of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was relatively high, and that the prevalence of dyslipidemia was relatively low with higher triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) rates were high for both STEMI and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) with higher use of drug-eluting stents (DESs). DES were effective and safe without increased risk of stent thrombosis in Korean AMI patients. Triple antiplatelet therapy, consisting of aspirin, clopidogrel, and cilostazol, was effective in preventing adverse clinical outcomes after PCI. Statin therapy was effective in Korean AMI patients, including those with very low levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and those with cardiogenic shock. The KAMIR score had a greater predictive value than Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores for long-term mortality in AMI patients. Based on these results, the KAMIR will be instrumental for establishing new therapeutic strategies and effective methods for secondary prevention of AMI and guidelines for Asian patients.

Additive prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction to the TIMI risk score for in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

To investigate whether the addition of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the TIMI risk score enhances the prediction of in-hospital and long-term death in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. 673 patients with STEMI were divided into three groups based on TIMI risk score for STEMI: low-risk group (TIMI ≤3, n = 213), moderate-risk group (TIMI 4-6, n = 285), and high-risk group (TIMI ≥7, n = 175). The predictive value was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk predictors. The rates of in-hospital death (0.5 vs 3.2 vs 10.3 %, p < 0.001) and major adverse cardiovascular events (14.6 vs 22.5 vs 40.6 %, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in high-risk group. Multivariate analysis showed that TIMI risk score (OR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.04-1.48, P = 0.015) and LVEF (OR 3.85, 95 % CI 1.58-10.43, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. LVEF had good predictive value for in-hospital death (AUC: 0.838 vs 0.803, p = 0.571) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.743 vs 0.728, p = 0.775), which was similar to TIMI risk score. When compared with the TIMI risk score alone, the addition of LVEF was associated with significant improvements in predicting in-hospital (AUC: 0.854 vs 0.803, p = 0.033) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.763 vs 0.728, p = 0.016). The addition of LVEF to TIMI risk score enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.864 for in-hospital death, p < 0.001; 0.510 for 1-year death, p < 0.001). LVEF was associated with in-hospital and long-term mortality in STEMI patients and had additive prognostic value to TIMI risk score.

In-hospital measurement of left ventricular ejection fraction and one-year outcomes in acute coronary syndromes: results from the IMMEDIATE Trial

BACKGROUND

In patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a known marker for increased mortality. However, the relationship between LVEF measured during index ACS hospitalization and mortality and heart failure (HF) within 1 year are less well-defined.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 445 participants in the IMMEDIATE Trial who had LVEF measured by left ventriculography or echocardiogram during hospitalization.

RESULTS

Adjusting for age and coronary artery disease (CAD) history, lower LVEF was significantly associated with 1-year mortality or hospitalization for HF. For every 5 % LVEF reduction, the hazard ratio [HR] was 1.26 (95 % CI 1.15, 1.38, P < 0.001). Participants with LVEF < 40 % had higher hazard of 1-year mortality or HF hospitalization than those with LVEF > 40 (HR 3.59; 95 % CI 2.05, 6.27, P < 0.001). The HRs for the association of LVEF with the study outcomes were similar whether measured by left ventriculography or by echocardiography, (respectively, HR 1.32; 95 % CI 1.15, 1.51 and 1.21; 95 % CI 1.106, 1.35, interaction P = 0.32) and whether done within 24 h or not within 24 h (respectively, HR 1.28; 95 % CI 1.10, 1.50 and 1.23; 95 % CI 1.10, 1.38, interaction P = 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with ACS, lower in-hospital LVEF is associated with increased 1-year mortality or hospitalization for HF, regardless of the method or timing of the LVEF assessment. This has prognostic implications for clinical practice and suggests the possibility of using various methods of LVEF determination in clinical research.

Effect of coronary artery revascularization on in-hospital outcomes and long-term prognoses in acute myocardial infarction patients with prior ischemic stroke

Objective

To investigate whether coronary artery revascularization therapies (CART), including percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), can improve the in-hospital and long-term outcomes for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients with prior ischemic stroke (IS).

Methods

A total of 387 AMI patients with prior IS were enrolled consecutively from January 15, 2005 to December 24, 2011 in this cohort study. All patients were categorized into the CART group (n = 204) or the conservative medications (CM) group (n = 183). In-hospital cardiocerebral events and long-term mortality of the two groups after an average follow-up of 36 months were recorded by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and compared by Logistic regression and the Cox regression model.

Results

The CART patients were younger (66.5 ± 9.7 years vs. 71.7 ± 9.7 years, P < 0.01), had less non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (11.8% vs. 20.8%, P = 0.016) and more multiple-vascular coronary lesions (50% vs. 69.4%, P = 0.031). The hospitalization incidence of cardiocerebral events in the CART group was 9.3% while 26.2% in the CM group (P < 0.01). CART significantly reduced the risk of in-hospital cardiocerebral events by 65% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.13–0.92]. By the end of follow-up, 57 cases (41.6%) died in CM group (n = 137) and 24 cases (12.2%) died in CART group (n = 197). Cox regression indicated that CART decreased the long-term mortality by 72% [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.06–0.46], while categorical analysis indicated no significant difference between PCI and CABG.

Conclusions

CART has a significant effect on improving the in-hospital and long-term prognoses for AMI patients with prior IS.