Ayurveda in Knee Osteoarthritis-Secondary Analyses of a Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Ayurveda is widely practiced in South Asia in the treatment of osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of these secondary data analyses were to identify the most relevant variables for treatment response and group differences between Ayurvedic therapy compared to conventional therapy in knee OA patients. Methods: A total of 151 patients (Ayurveda n = 77, conventional care n = 74) were analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle in a randomized controlled trial. Different statistical approaches including generalized linear models, a radial basis function (RBF) network, exhausted CHAID, classification and regression trees (CART), and C5.0 with adaptive boosting were applied. Results: The RBF network implicated that the therapy arm and the baseline values of the WOMAC Index subscales might be the most important variables for the significant between-group differences of the WOMAC Index from baseline to 12 weeks in favor of Ayurveda. The intake of nutritional supplements in the Ayurveda group did not seem to be a significant factor in changes in the WOMAC Index. Ayurveda patients with functional limitations > 60 points and pain > 25 points at baseline showed the greatest improvements in the WOMAC Index from baseline to 12 weeks (mean value 107.8 ± 27.4). A C5.0 model with nine predictors had a predictive accuracy of 89.4% for a change in the WOMAC Index after 12 weeks > 10. With adaptive boosting, the accuracy rose to 98%. Conclusions: These secondary analyses suggested that therapeutic effects cannot be explained by the therapies themselves alone, although they were the most important factors in the applied models.

Cardiac arrest in takotsubo syndrome: results from the InterTAK Registry

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the frequency, clinical features, and prognostic implications of cardiac arrest (CA) in takotsubo syndrome (TTS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reviewed the records of patients with CA and known heart rhythm from the International Takotsubo Registry. The main outcomes were 60-day and 5-year mortality. In addition, predictors of mortality and predictors of CA during the acute TTS phase were assessed. Of 2098 patients, 103 patients with CA and known heart rhythm during CA were included. Compared with patients without CA, CA patients were more likely to be younger, male, and have apical TTS, atrial fibrillation (AF), neurologic comorbidities, physical triggers, and longer corrected QT-interval and lower left ventricular ejection fraction on admission. In all, 57.1% of patients with CA at admission had ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia, while 73.7% of patients with CA in the acute phase had asystole/pulseless electrical activity. Patients with CA showed higher 60-day (40.3% vs. 4.0%, P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality (68.9% vs. 16.7%, P < 0.001) than patients without CA. T-wave inversion and intracranial haemorrhage were independently associated with higher 60-day mortality after CA, whereas female gender was associated with lower 60-day mortality. In the acute phase, CA occurred less frequently in females and more frequently in patients with AF, ST-segment elevation, and higher C-reactive protein on admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac arrest is relatively frequent in TTS and is associated with higher short- and long-term mortality. Clinical and electrocardiographic parameters independently predicted mortality after CA.

Gender and age differences in outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndromes referred for coronary angiography

OBJECTIVES

The number of elderly patients undergoing coronary revascularization is steadily increasing, and data on the impact of gender on outcomes are scarce. This study sought to assess gender-related differences in outcomes in elderly patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS).

METHODS

We investigated outcomes in elderly ACS patients referred for coronary angiography and prospectively enrolled in the Swiss ACS Cohort between December 2009 and October 2012. Adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) included all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, clinically indicated repeat coronary revascularization, definite stent thrombosis, and transient ischemic attack/stroke.

RESULTS

Among 2,168 patients recruited, 481 (22%) patients were >75 years of age (37% women). In patients >75 years, 1-year MACCE rates were 15% and 23% in women and men (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.97, P = 0.04), respectively, and differences remained significant after adjustments for baseline variables (adjusted OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.90, P = 0.02). Women >75 years had a lower cardiovascular mortality (6% versus 12%, adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12-0.81, P = 0.02). In patients ≤75 years, 1-year MACCE rates did not differ between gender (10% and 8% for women and men, adjusted OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.77-2.14, P = 0.34). Rates of TIMI major bleeding for women and men were 4% and 4% in patients >75 years (P = 0.96), and 5% and 3% in those ≤75 years (P = 0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

The low rates of MACCE observed in elderly women in this patient cohort suggest that with current interventional strategies the gender gap in ACS management has been attenuated.

Predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score in patients with acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

This study sought to investigate the predictive value of the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The ACEF score (age/left ventricular ejection fraction +1 [if creatinine > 176 μmol/L]) has been established in patients evaluated for coronary artery bypass surgery. Data on its predictive value in all-comer ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention are scarce.

METHODS

A total of 1901 patients prospectively enrolled in the Swiss ACS Cohort were included in the analysis. Optimal ACEF score cut-off values were calculated by decision tree analysis, and patients divided into low-risk (≤1.45), intermediate-risk (>1.45 and ≤2.0), and high-risk groups (>2.0). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) included all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, clinically indicated repeat coronary revascularization, definite stent thrombosis, and transient ischemic attack/stroke.

RESULTS

One-year rates of all-cause death increased across ACEF score groups (1.6% versus 5.6% versus 23.0%, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the ACEF score was related with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 3.53, 95% CI 2.90-4.31, p < 0.001), MACCE (adjusted HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.88-2.65, p < 0.001), and transient ischemic attack/stroke (adjusted HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.71-3.89, p < 0.001) at 1 year. Rates of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major and Global use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) severe bleeding paralleled the increased ischemic risk across the groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ACEF score is a simple and useful risk stratification tool in patients with ACS referred for coronary revascularization.

Identification of Endoglin as an epigenetically regulated tumour-suppressor gene in lung cancer

Background:

The transforming growth factor-beta (TGF- β) pathway has been implicated in proliferation, migration and invasion of various cancers. Endoglin is a TGF-β accessory receptor that modulates signalling. We identified Endoglin as an epigenetically silenced tumour-suppressor gene in lung cancer by means of a genome-wide screening approach, then sought to characterise its effect on lung cancer progression.

Methods:

Methylation microarray and RNA sequencing were carried out on lung cancer cell lines. Epigenetic silencing of Endoglin was confirmed by methylation and expression analyses. An expression vector and a 20-gene expression panel were used to evaluate Endoglin function. Pyrosequencing was carried out on two independent cohorts comprising 112 and 202 NSCLC cases, respectively, and the impact of Endoglin methylation on overall survival (OS) was evaluated.

Results:

Methylation in the promoter region resulted in silencing of Endoglin, which could be reactivated by demethylation. Increased invasion coupled with altered EMT marker expression was observed in cell lines with an epithelial-like, but not those with a mesenchymal-like, profile when Endoglin was absent. Methylation was associated with decreased OS in stage I but not in stages II–III disease.

Conclusions:

We show that Endoglin is a common target of epigenetic silencing in lung cancer. We reveal a link between Endoglin silencing and EMT progression that might be associated with decreased survival in stage I disease.

Gender-Related Differences in Patients Presenting with Suspected Acute Coronary Syndromes: Clinical Presentation, Biomarkers and Diagnosis

OBJECTIVES

Gender differences in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have not yet been fully characterized. The aim of this study was to assess gender-related disparities in clinical profiles, biomarkers and diagnoses of patients with suspected ACS.

METHODS

This single-centre, prospective cohort study included 377 consecutive patients presenting with suspected ACS to the emergency department. Suspected ACS was defined as a request for conventional troponin T (c-cTnT) measurements on clinical grounds.

RESULTS

Women were older than men (p = 0.004), and had a lower prevalence of known coronary artery and peripheral vascular disease (p < 0.05). c-cTnT was positive in 8% of female and in 14% of male patients (p = 0.16), TIMI risk score and cardiac biomarkers including c-cTnT, hs-cTnT, myoglobin, creatine kinase, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, myeloid-related protein 8/14 and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A were lower in women (p < 0.05). Women were less frequently diagnosed with ACS (30 vs. 51%), and were not referred for urgent coronary angiography as often as men (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, female gender was associated with a lower referral for coronary angiography (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23-0.78, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with suspected ACS, women presented with different biomarker profiles, and were less often diagnosed with ACS and referred to coronary angiography.

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is extremely heterogeneous. Although patients with MBC will uniformly die to their disease, survival may range from a few months to several years. This underscores the importance of defining prognostic factors to develop risk-adopted treatment strategies. Our aim has been to use simple measures to judge a patient's prognosis when metastatic disease is diagnosed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2269 patients from four clinical cancer registries. The prognostic score was calculated from the regression coefficients found in the Cox regression analysis. Based on the score, patients were classified into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. Bootstrapping and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used for internal validation. Two independent datasets were used for external validation.

RESULTS

Metastatic-free interval, localization of metastases, and hormone receptor status were identified as significant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The three prognostic groups showed highly significant differences regarding overall survival from the time of metastasis [intermediate compared with low risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.27, P < 0.001; high compared with low risk: HR 3.54, 95% CI 2.81-4.45, P < 0.001). The median overall survival in these three groups were 61, 38, and 22 months, respectively. The external validation showed congruent results.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a prognostic score, based on routine parameters easily accessible in daily clinical care. Although major progress has been made, the optimal therapeutic management of the individual patient is still unknown. Besides elaborative molecular classification of tumors, simple clinical measures such as our model may be helpful to further individualize optimal breast cancer care.

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is extremely heterogeneous. Although patients with MBC will uniformly die to their disease, survival may range from a few months to several years. This underscores the importance of defining prognostic factors to develop risk-adopted treatment strategies. Our aim has been to use simple measures to judge a patient's prognosis when metastatic disease is diagnosed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2269 patients from four clinical cancer registries. The prognostic score was calculated from the regression coefficients found in the Cox regression analysis. Based on the score, patients were classified into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. Bootstrapping and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used for internal validation. Two independent datasets were used for external validation.

RESULTS

Metastatic-free interval, localization of metastases, and hormone receptor status were identified as significant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The three prognostic groups showed highly significant differences regarding overall survival from the time of metastasis [intermediate compared with low risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.27, P < 0.001; high compared with low risk: HR 3.54, 95% CI 2.81-4.45, P < 0.001). The median overall survival in these three groups were 61, 38, and 22 months, respectively. The external validation showed congruent results.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a prognostic score, based on routine parameters easily accessible in daily clinical care. Although major progress has been made, the optimal therapeutic management of the individual patient is still unknown. Besides elaborative molecular classification of tumors, simple clinical measures such as our model may be helpful to further individualize optimal breast cancer care.

Assessment of inflammatory response to transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve implantation compared to transapical and surgical procedures: a pilot study

AIMS

Surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) has been associated with systemic inflammatory reactions. Yet, the role of inflammation following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has not been fully elucidated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a total of 40 patients evaluated by the 'heart team,' this retrospective study assessed levels of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and leukocyte counts following 'uneventful' AVR and TAVI. Four groups of matched patients were compared (AVR; transapical and transfemoral Edwards SAPIEN [TA ES and TF ES, respectively]; and transfemoral Medtronic CoreValve [TF CV]). A postprocedural increase of both hs-CRP levels and leukocyte counts was observed (P<.001) with peak levels 48 hours after the procedures. Comparing treatment groups, hs-CRP levels at 48 hours were significantly higher following AVR and TA ES compared to TF ES and TF CV (P<.04). Leukocyte counts at 48 hours were higher following TA ES compared to TF ES and TF CV (P<.03). Multivariate analysis incorporating both hs-CRP levels and leukocyte counts confirmed significant differences for all measurements over time (P<.001). Furthermore, the treatment group significantly influenced postprocedural hs-CRP levels and leukocyte counts (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

Both AVR and TAVI evoke a postprocedural inflammatory response. Higher hs-CRP levels and leukocyte counts following AVR and apical TAVI suggest less inflammation following femoral procedures.

Coronary computed tomography angiography indicates complexity of percutaneous coronary interventions

BACKGROUND

Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) provides information regarding lesion morphology and three-dimensional coronary anatomy incremental to coronary angiography. We addressed the question whether preprocedural CCTA bears potential for guiding percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sixty-six coronary lesions attempted with PCI within 6 months of preprocedural CCTA were retrospectively assessed. Lesion parameters from unenhanced computed tomography (CT) for calcium scoring and CCTA were analyzed and compared with PCI complexity. Complex PCI was defined as use of buddy wire, kissing balloon, necessity of high pressure balloons, or rotablator. Complex PCIs were observed in 32 interventions (48%). Median Agatston score and Hounsfield units were higher in lesions with complex as compared to those with non-complex interventions with 130 (interquartile range, 23-276) vs 29 (0-158; P=.01), and 493 (245-631) vs 341 (68-520 Hounsfield Units; P=.04), respectively. Median local plaque volume and plaque mass were higher in complex PCI with 17 (2-39) vs 5 (0-19.5 mm³; P=.007), and 48 (15-99) vs. 16 (1.5-63 mg hydroxyapatite/mm³; P=.03), respectively. Lesions leading to complex PCI were longer [1.8 (1.2-2.8) vs 1.3 (0.8-1.7) cm; P=.03], and had a higher rate of calcified plaques (23% vs 3%; P=.03). There was a significant correlation between CCTA- and angiography-derived local SYNTAX Scores (P<.001); the CCTA-derived score seems to be predictive for failed and complex PCI (area under curve = 0.75 ± 0.13 and 0.66 ± 0.08, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Preprocedural lesion assessment by CCTA indicates complexity of PCI. In patients with suspected complex coronary anatomy, prior CCTA adds important information for planning PCI.

Cellular actors, Toll-like receptors, and local cytokine profile in acute coronary syndromes

AIMS

Inflammation plays a key role in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Toll-like receptors (TLR) on leucocytes mediate inflammation and immune responses. We characterized leucocytes and TLR expression within coronary thrombi and compared cytokine levels from the site of coronary occlusion with aortic blood (AB) in ACS patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 18 ACS patients, thrombi were collected by aspiration during primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Thrombi and AB from these patients as well as AB from 10 age-matched controls without coronary artery disease were assessed by FACS analysis for cellular distribution and TLR expression. For further discrimination of ACS specificity, seven non-coronary intravascular thrombi and eight thrombi generated in vitro were analysed. In 17 additional patients, cytokine levels were determined in blood samples from the site of coronary occlusion under distal occlusion and compared with AB. In coronary thrombi from ACS, the percentage of monocytes related to the total leucocyte count was greater than in AB (47 vs. 20%, P = 0.0002). In thrombi, TLR-4 and TLR-2 were overexpressed on CD14-labelled monocytes, and TLR-2 was increased on CD66b-labelled granulocytes, in comparison with leucocytes in AB. In contrast, in vitro and non-coronary thrombi exhibited no overexpression of TLR-4. Local blood samples taken under distal occlusion revealed elevated concentrations of chemokines (IL-8, MCP-1, eotaxin, MIP-1alpha, and IP-10) and cytokines (IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-7, IL-12, IL-17, IFN-alpha, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor) regulating both innate and adaptive immunity (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In ACS patients, monocytes accumulate within thrombi and specifically overexpress TLR-4. Together with the local expression patterns of chemokines and cytokines, the increase of TLR-4 reflects a concerted activation of this inflammatory pathway at the site of coronary occlusion in ACS.

Prognostic markers and long-term outcome of placental-site trophoblastic tumours: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Placental-site trophoblastic tumours are a rare form of gestational trophoblastic disease and consequently information about optimum management or prognostic factors is restricted. We aimed to assess the long-term outcome of stage-adapted management by surgery, chemotherapy, or both for patients with the disorder.

METHODS

35 550 women were registered with gestational trophoblastic disease in the UK (1976-2006), of whom 62 were diagnosed with placental-site trophoblastic tumours and included, retrospectively, in the study. Patients were treated by surgery, chemotherapy, or both. We estimated the probabilities of overall survival and survival without recurrence of disease 5 and 10 years after the date of first treatment, and calculated the association of these endpoints with prognostic factors, including time since antecedent pregnancy, serum concentration of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, and stage of disease, with both univariate and multivariate analyses.

FINDINGS

Probabilities of overall and recurrence-free survival 10 years after first treatment were 70% (95% CI 54-82) and 73% (54-85), respectively. Patients with stage I disease had a 10-year probability of overall survival of 90% (77-100) and did not benefit from postoperative chemotherapy. By contrast, patients with stage II, III, and IV disease required combined treatment with surgery and chemotherapy; probability of overall survival at 10 years was 52% (3-100) for patients with stage II disease and 49% (26-72) for stage III or IV disease. Outcome for patients who had recurrent or refractory disease was poor: only four (22%) patients achieved long-term survival beyond 60 months. Multivariate analysis showed that the only significant independent predictor of overall and recurrence-free survival was time since antecedent pregnancy. A cutoff point of 48 months since antecedent pregnancy could differentiate between patients' probability of survival (<48 months) or death (>/=48 months) with 93% specificity and 100% sensitivity, and with a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 98%.

INTERPRETATION

Stage-adapted management with surgery for stage I disease, and combined surgery and chemotherapy for stage II, III, and IV disease could improve the effectiveness of treatment for placental-site trophoblastic tumours. Use of 48 months since antecedent pregnancy as a prognostic indicator of survival could help select patients for risk-adapted treatment.

FUNDING

National Commissioning Group.

Myeloid-related protein 8/14 complex is released by monocytes and granulocytes at the site of coronary occlusion: a novel, early, and sensitive marker of acute coronary syndromes

AIMS

We investigated whether myeloid-related protein 8/14 complex (MRP8/14) expressed by infiltrating monocytes and granulocytes may represent a mediator and early biomarker of acute coronary syndromes (ACS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Immunohistochemistry of coronary thrombi was done in 41 ACS patients. Subsequently, levels of MRP8/14 were assessed systemically in 75 patients with ACS and culprit lesions, with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), or with normal coronary arteries. In a subset of patients, MRP8/14 was measured systemically and at the site of coronary occlusion. Macrophages and granulocytes, but not platelets stained positive for MRP8/14 in 76% of 41 thrombi patients. In ACS, local MRP8/14 levels [22.0 (16.2-41.5) mg/L] were increased when compared with systemic levels [13.4 (8.1-14.7) mg/L, P = 0.03]. Systemic levels of MRP8/14 were markedly elevated [15.1 (12.1-21.8) mg/L, P = 0.001] in ACS when compared with stable CAD [4.6 (3.5-7.1) mg/L] or normals [4.8 (4.0-6.3) mg/L]. Using a cut-off level of 8 mg/L, MRP8/14 but not myoglobin or troponin, identified ACS presenting within 3 h from symptom onset.

CONCLUSION

In ACS, MRP8/14 is markedly expressed at the site of coronary occlusion by invading phagocytes. The occurrence of elevated MRP8/14 in the systemic circulation prior to markers of myocardial necrosis makes it a prime candidate for the detection of unstable plaques and management of ACS.

Primary chemotherapy with gemcitabine as prolonged infusion, non-pegylated liposomal doxorubicin and docetaxel in patients with early breast cancer: final results of a phase II trial

BACKGROUND

Combinations of anthracyclines, taxanes and gemcitabine have shown high activity in breast cancer. This trial was designed to evaluate a modified combination regimen as primary chemotherapy. Non-pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (NPLD) was used instead of conventional doxorubicin to improve cardiac safety. Gemcitabine was given 72 h after NPLD and docetaxel as a prolonged infusion over 4 h in order to optimize synergistic effects and accumulation of active metabolites.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Forty-four patients with histologically confirmed stage II or III breast cancer were treated with NPLD (60 mg/m(2)) and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) on day 1 and gemcitabine as 4-h infusion (350 mg/m(2)) on day 4. Treatment was repeated every 3 weeks for a maximum of six cycles. All patients received prophylactically recombinant granulocyte colony-stimulating factor. Patients with axillary lymph node involvement after primary chemotherapy received adjuvant treatment with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil.

RESULTS

The clinical response rate was 80%, and complete remissions of the primary tumor occurred in 10 patients (25%). Breast conservation surgery was performed in 19 out of 20 patients (95%) with an initial tumor size of less than 3 cm and in 14 patients (70%) with a tumor size <or=3 cm. Seven patients had histologically confirmed complete responses accounting for a pCR rate of 17.5%. Expression of Ki--67 was the most important predictive parameter for response with high 38.9% breast pCR rate in patients with elevated Ki--67 expression. Although the predominant toxicity was myelosuppression with grade 3/4 neutropenia in 61% of patients few neutropenic complications resulted. Non-hematological toxicity was generally moderate with grade 3 or 4 toxicity in 10.0% of cycles. Most common non-hematologic toxicities were nausea, vomiting, alopecia, mucositis, asthenia and elevation of liver enzymes.

CONCLUSION

The evaluated schedule provides a safe and highly effective combination treatment for patients with early breast cancer, which is suitable for phase III studies.

Prediction of response to hormonal treatment in metastatic breast cancer

Prediction of outcome and individualization of therapeutic strategies are challenging problems in oncology. Predictive parameters for response to hormonal treatment include the expression of hormone receptor, the extent and location of metastatic spread, disease-free interval, patient age, response to prior hormonal therapy, grading, and more recently, some molecular markers like the expression of HER-2/neu. The use of conventional statistics for prediction of response to hormonal treatment is limited by non-linearities and complex interactions between predictive factors. Modern computational mathematical models like artificial neural networks, entropy-based inductive algorithms or chi(2) interaction detection algorithms can describe these interactions and generate classification models and decision structures. They can be used to predict the clinical outcome for individual patients. In contrast to conventional methods, the level of confidence for the predictions can reach 90% and more. This might be an important step towards further individualization of therapeutic strategies.

ABC stenosis morphology classification and outcome of coronary angioplasty: reassessment with computing techniques

BACKGROUND

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) stenosis morphology classification (MC) stratifies coronary lesions for probability of success and complications after coronary angioplasty (PTCA). Modern computing techniques were used to evaluate the individual predictive value of MC in random PTCA cases.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MC was attributed to the target lesions by consensus of 2 observers. The predictive value regarding procedural success (PS) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) of MC was analyzed by conventional logistic regression analyses and by inductive machine learning models. The study was adequately powered for the methods applied with 325 target lesions of 250 cases. Overall, PS decreased and MACE increased from type A to type C lesions. Regression analysis identified no single factor as predictive. Logistic regression showed an error rate of 42%. Machine learning techniques achieved an individual predictive error of only 10%, which could be further reduced to 2% by addition of parameters. For PS, MC parameters showed a high ranking for building the model. For MACE, variables of the medical history showed more impact.

CONCLUSIONS

MC per se cannot individually predict PS or MACE. However, when all MC parameters are integrated together with additional lesion-specific and history variables, a high individual predictive value can be achieved. This technique may be clinically helpful for risk stratification in the catheterization laboratory and improvement of classification systems in interventional cardiology.

Audit and quality control in angioplasty in Europe: procedural results of the AQUA Study 1997: assessment of 250 randomly selected coronary interventions performed in 25 centres of five European countries. AQUA Study Group, Nucleus Clinical Issues, Working Group Coronary Circulation, of the European Society of Cardiology

AIMS

Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) has become the most widely used major intervention in western medicine. However, there is disparate use of this technique among different European countries and the U.S.A. In an attempt at quality assurance, the working group Coronary Circulation of the European Society of Cardiology has carried out a study on appropriateness, necessity, and performance of PTCA in Europe. The present paper reports on the procedural results of this survey.

METHODS

In a multicentre case-control study in Europe, 750 patients (544 men, 206 women) with documented vascular disease of the From the countries participating in the European Registry of Coronary Intervention, the three countries with the highest absolute PTCA volume (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom) and two randomly selected countries (Belgium and Italy) were chosen for investigation. In these countries, five centres were selected at random according to the following criteria: one centre with >1000, three centres with 300-1000, and one centre with <300 procedures per year. In each of these, 10 cases from the first half of 1997 were randomly identified and all pertinent documentation was collected.

RESULTS

In 250 cases, 325 stenoses were addressed as target lesions. Single vessel disease was present in 41%. History included stable angina in 49%, unstable angina in 32%, atypical chest pain in 6%, no anginal pain in 12%, and acute/subacute myocardial infarction in 13%. The percentage of patients with either positive stress test and/or unstable angina, acute/subacute infarction, previous infarction (within 6 months) or coronary revascularization amounted to 98%. Single vessel intervention accounted for 90%. In 41% balloon-only angioplasty was performed and in 54% at least one stent was implanted with considerable variation among countries. The use of other new devices amounted to only 3%. In 92%, the operators documented a successful procedure. Major complications (myocardial infarction, emergency bypass surgery, or death) were found in 4.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on scrutinized hospital and operator data, the present study revealed a satisfactorily high percentage of justifiable indications, an adequate procedural success rate, and an acceptably low complication rate. Further analysis by an expert panel will address appropriateness, necessity, and procedural performance of the individual cases.

A prognostic computer model to individually predict post-procedural complications in interventional cardiology: the INTERVENT Project

AIMS

The purpose of this part of the INTERVENT project was (1) to redefine and individually predict post-procedural complications associated with coronary interventions, including alternative/adjunctive techniques to PTCA and (2) to employ the prognostic INTERVENT computer model to clarify the structural relationship between (pre)-procedural risk factors and post-procedural outcome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a multicentre study, 2500 data items of 455 consecutive patients (mean age: 61.1+/-8.3 years: 33-84 years) undergoing coronary interventions at three university centres were analysed. 80.4% of the patients were male, 16.7% had unstable angina, and 5.1%/10.1% acute/subacute myocardial infarction. There were multiple or multivessel stenoses in 16.0%, vessel bending >90 degrees in 14.5%, irregular vessel contours in 65.0%, moderate calcifications in 20.9%, moderate/severe vessel tortuosity in 53.2% and a diameter stenosis of 90%-99% in 44.4% of cases. The in-lab (out-of-lab) complications were: 0.4% (0.9%) death, 1.8% (0.2%) abrupt vessel closure with myocardial infarction and 5.5% (4.0) haemodynamic disorders.

CONCLUSION

Computer algorithms derived from artificial intelligence were able to predict the individual risk of these post-procedural complications with an accuracy of >95% and to explain the structural relationship between risk factors and post-procedural complications. The most important prognostic factors were: heart failure (NYHA class), use of adjunctive/alternative techniques (rotablation, atherectomy, laser), acute coronary ischaemia, pre-existent cardiac medication, stenosis length, stenosis morphology (calcification), gender, age, amount of contrast agent and smoker status. Pre-medication with aspirin or other cardiac medication had a beneficial effect. Techniques, such as laser angioplasty or atherectomy were predictors for post-procedural complications. Single predictors alone were not able to describe the individual outcome completely.

A prognostic computer model to predict individual outcome in interventional cardiology. The INTERVENT Project

It is not yet possible to predict an individual's outcome from percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or alternative/adjunctive coronary interventional techniques. The purpose of the INTERVENT project is to redefine complications associated with coronary interventions, to set up a prognostic computer model to predict individual outcome and to compare the results to those of conventional statistical techniques. 2500 data items were analysed in 455 consecutive patients (mean age: 61.1 +/- 8.3 years; range 33-84 years; 80.4% male, 16.7% unstable angina, 5.1%/10.1% acute/subacute myocardial infarction) undergoing coronary interventions at three university centres. In-lab/out-of-lab complication rates were 0.4%/0.9% (death), 1.8%/0.2% (abrupt vessel closure with myocardial infarction) and 5.5%/4.0% (haemodynamic complications). Computer algorithms derived by applying techniques from artificial intelligence were able (1) to reduce the set of possible relevant risk factors from 2500 to about 40, (2) to predict individual risk with an accuracy of > 95% and (3) to explain the structural relationship between outcome and risk factors. Patient data from two centres were used to construct and test the algorithm. Data from a third centre were used to evaluate the algorithm. The most important predictors-were acute myocardial infarction, heart failure (NYHA class > II), unstable angina, complex lesions, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol and duration of coronary heart disease. Neither age nor gender impaired the percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty results in acute ischaemic syndromes; however, for stable angina, procedural risk increased with age. There was little risk from primary percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty in acute myocardial infarction in patients with NYHA heart failure classes I-II; however, the risk was high for patients in NYHA classes > II, either with or without additional thrombolysis. Alternative/adjunctive intervention techniques were no predictors for in-lab-, but were predictors for post-procedural complications.

Quality monitoring, standardized documentation and management with a computerized system in oncology

Within the last years the prerequisite was prepared to develop a computerized tumor--patient documentation system including quality monitoring and oncological therapy recommendations for every day use. In medicine today, there is an increasing need for quality oriented low cost and transparent management--what is especially true in the field of oncology. The German Federal Authority of Health demands the documentation of all tumor disorders for the establishment of an cancer registry. For these reasons our study group established the program "OncoDoc" in cooperation with the laboratory for Artificial Intelligence of the University Bremen.