Machine learning-based prediction of in-hospital death for patients with takotsubo syndrome: The InterTAK-ML model

AIMS

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated with a substantial rate of adverse events. We sought to design a machine learning (ML)-based model to predict the risk of in-hospital death and to perform a clustering of TTS patients to identify different risk profiles.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A ridge logistic regression-based ML model for predicting in-hospital death was developed on 3482 TTS patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry, randomly split in a train and an internal validation cohort (75% and 25% of the sample size, respectively) and evaluated in an external validation cohort (1037 patients). Thirty-one clinically relevant variables were included in the prediction model. Model performance represented the primary endpoint and was assessed according to area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. As secondary endpoint, a K-medoids clustering algorithm was designed to stratify patients into phenotypic groups based on the 10 most relevant features emerging from the main model. The overall incidence of in-hospital death was 5.2%. The InterTAK-ML model showed an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.92), a sensitivity of 0.85 (0.78-0.95) and a specificity of 0.76 (0.74-0.79) in the internal validation cohort and an AUC of 0.82 (0.73-0.91), a sensitivity of 0.74 (0.61-0.87) and a specificity of 0.79 (0.77-0.81) in the external cohort for in-hospital death prediction. By exploiting the 10 variables showing the highest feature importance, TTS patients were clustered into six groups associated with different risks of in-hospital death (28.8% vs. 15.5% vs. 5.4% vs. 1.0.8% vs. 0.5%) which were consistent also in the external cohort.

CONCLUSION

A ML-based approach for the identification of TTS patients at risk of adverse short-term prognosis is feasible and effective. The InterTAK-ML model showed unprecedented discriminative capability for the prediction of in-hospital death.

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance in Patients with Suspected Tachycardia-Induced Cardiomyopathy: The Impact of Late Gadolinium Enhancement and Epicardial Fat Tissue

Tachycardia-induced cardiomyopathy (TIC) is a reversible subtype of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) resulting from sustained supraventricular or ventricular tachycardia and diagnosed by the normalization of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after stable sinus rhythm restoration. The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) to the differential diagnosis of TIC and DCM with persistent atrial arrythmias in patients hospitalized for the first time with heart failure (HF) with reduced LVEF of nonischemic origin. A total of 29 patients (age: 58.2 ± 16.9 years; males: 65.5%; average EF: 37.0 ± 9.5%) with persistent atrial tachyarrhythmia and first decompensation of HF without known coronary artery diseases were included in this study. The patients successfully underwent cardioversion and were observed for 30 days. The study population was divided into groups of responders (TIC patients; N = 16), which implies achieving FF > 50% or its increase > 10% in 30 days of TIC, and non-responders (N = 13). The increase in left ventricle (LV) volumes measured using CMR was significantly higher in the non-responder group when compared with the responders (114.8 mL ± 25.1 vs. 68.1 mL ± 10.5, respectively, p < 0.05). Non-responders also demonstrated decreased interventricular septum thickness (9.1 ± 0.8 vs.11.5 ± 1.3, respectively, p < 0.05). Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was observed in 12 patients (41.4%). The prevalence of LGE was increased in the non-responder group (25.0% vs. 65.1%, respectively, p = 0.046). Notably, a septal mid-wall LGE pattern was found exclusively in the non-responders. Epicardial adipose tissue thickness was decreased in the non-responder group versus the TIC patients. Conclusion: Patients with TIC were found to have smaller atrial and ventricular dimensions in comparison to patients with DCM. In addition, LGE was more common in DCM patients.

In-hospital and 6-month outcomes in patients with COVID-19 supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (EuroECMO-COVID): a multicentre, prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been widely used in patients with COVID-19, but uncertainty remains about the determinants of in-hospital mortality and data on post-discharge outcomes are scarce. The aims of this study were to investigate the variables associated with in-hospital outcomes in patients who received ECMO during the first wave of COVID-19 and to describe the status of patients 6 months after ECMO initiation.

METHODS

EuroECMO-COVID is a prospective, multicentre, observational study developed by the European Extracorporeal Life Support Organization. This study was based on data from patients aged 16 years or older who received ECMO support for refractory COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic-from March 1 to Sept 13, 2020-at 133 centres in 21 countries. In-hospital mortality and mortality 6 months after ECMO initiation were the primary outcomes. Mixed-Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between patient and management-related variables (eg, patient demographics, comorbidities, pre-ECMO status, and ECMO characteristics and complications) and in-hospital deaths. Survival status at 6 months was established through patient contact or institutional charts review. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04366921, and is ongoing.

FINDINGS

Between March 1 and Sept 13, 2020, 1215 patients (942 [78%] men and 267 [22%] women; median age 53 years [IQR 46-60]) were included in the study. Median ECMO duration was 15 days (IQR 8-27). 602 (50%) of 1215 patients died in hospital, and 852 (74%) patients had at least one complication. Multiorgan failure was the leading cause of death (192 [36%] of 528 patients who died with available data). In mixed-Cox analyses, age of 60 years or older, use of inotropes and vasopressors before ECMO initiation, chronic renal failure, and time from intubation to ECMO initiation of 4 days or more were associated with higher in-hospital mortality. 613 patients did not die in hospital, and 547 (95%) of 577 patients for whom data were available were alive at 6 months. 102 (24%) of 431 patients had returned to full-time work at 6 months, and 57 (13%) of 428 patients had returned to part-time work. At 6 months, respiratory rehabilitation was required in 88 (17%) of 522 patients with available data, and the most common residual symptoms included dyspnoea (185 [35%] of 523 patients) and cardiac (52 [10%] of 514 patients) or neurocognitive (66 [13%] of 512 patients) symptoms.

INTERPRETATION

Patient's age, timing of cannulation (<4 days vs ≥4 days from intubation), and use of inotropes and vasopressors are essential factors to consider when analysing the outcomes of patients receiving ECMO for COVID-19. Despite post-discharge survival being favourable, persisting long-term symptoms suggest that dedicated post-ECMO follow-up programmes are required.

FUNDING

None.

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Outcome in Takotsubo Syndrome: Data From the International Takotsubo Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for mortality. The prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) have not yet been investigated in a large patient cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in patients with TTS.

Methods and Results

Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry, which is a multinational network with 26 participating centers in Europe and the United States. Patients were dichotomized according to the presence or absence of AF at the time of admission. Of 1584 patients with TTS, 112 (7.1%) had AF. The mean age was higher (P<0.001), and there were fewer women (P=0.046) in the AF than in the non‐AF group. Left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly lower (P=0.001), and cardiogenic shock was more often observed (P<0.001) in the AF group. Both in‐hospital (P<0.001) and long‐term mortality (P<0.001) were higher in the AF group. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that AF was independently associated with higher long‐term mortality (hazard ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.50–3.55; P<0.001). Among patients with AF on admission, 42% had no known history of AF before the acute TTS event, and such patients had comparable in‐hospital and long‐term outcomes compared with those with a history of AF.

Conclusions

In patients presenting with TTS, AF on admission is significantly associated with increased in‐hospital and long‐term mortality rates. Whether antiarrhythmics and/or cardioversion are beneficial in TTS with AF should thus be tested in a future trial.

Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Coexistence and outcome of coronary artery disease in Takotsubo syndrome

AIMS

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is an acute heart failure syndrome, which shares many features with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Although TTS was initially described with angiographically normal coronary arteries, smaller studies recently indicated a potential coexistence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in TTS patients. This study aimed to determine the coexistence, features, and prognostic role of CAD in a large cohort of patients with TTS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Coronary anatomy and CAD were studied in patients diagnosed with TTS. Inclusion criteria were compliance with the International Takotsubo Diagnostic Criteria for TTS, and availability of original coronary angiographies with ventriculography performed during the acute phase. Exclusion criteria were missing views, poor quality of angiography loops, and angiography without ventriculography. A total of 1016 TTS patients were studied. Of those, 23.0% had obstructive CAD, 41.2% had non-obstructive CAD, and 35.7% had angiographically normal coronary arteries. A total of 47 patients (4.6%) underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, and 3 patients had acute and 8 had chronic coronary artery occlusion concomitant with TTS, respectively. The presence of CAD was associated with increased incidence of shock, ventilation, and death from any cause. After adjusting for confounders, the presence of obstructive CAD was associated with mortality at 30 days. Takotsubo syndrome patients with obstructive CAD were at comparable risk for shock and death and nearly at twice the risk for ventilation compared to an age- and sex-matched ACS cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronary artery disease frequently coexists in TTS patients, presents with the whole spectrum of coronary pathology including acute coronary occlusion, and is associated with adverse outcome.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01947621.

Prognostic impact of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with takotsubo syndrome: new insights from the International Takotsubo Registry

AIMS

Acute pulmonary disorders are known physical triggers of takotsubo syndrome (TTS). This study aimed to investigate prevalence of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with TTS and their impact on outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry and screened for triggering factors and comorbidities. Patients were categorized into three groups (acute pulmonary trigger, chronic lung disease, and no lung disease) to compare clinical characteristics and outcomes. Of the 1670 included patients with TTS, 123 (7%) were identified with an acute pulmonary trigger, and 194 (12%) had a known history of chronic lung disease. The incidence of cardiogenic shock was highest in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger compared with those with chronic lung disease or without lung disease (17% vs. 10% vs. 9%, P = 0.017). In-hospital mortality was also higher in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger than in the other two groups, although not significantly (5.7% vs. 1.5% vs. 4.2%, P = 0.13). Survival analysis demonstrated that patients with an acute pulmonary trigger had the worst long-term outcome (P = 0.002). The presence of an acute pulmonary trigger was independently associated with worse long-term mortality (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.33-3.38; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates that TTS is related to acute pulmonary triggers in 7% of all TTS patients, which accounts for 21% of patients with physical triggers. The presence of acute pulmonary trigger is associated with a severe in-hospital course and a worse long-term outcome.

Age-Related Variations in Takotsubo Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs predominantly in post-menopausal women but is also found in younger patients.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate age-related differences in TTS.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with TTS and enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry between January 2011 and February 2017 were included in this analysis and were stratified by age (younger: ≤50 years, middle-age: 51 to 74 years, elderly: ≥75 years). Baseline characteristics, hospital course, as well as short- and long-term mortality were compared among groups.

RESULTS

Of 2,098 TTS patients, 242 (11.5%) patients were ≤50 years of age, 1,194 (56.9%) were 51 to 74 years of age, and 662 (31.6%) were ≥75 years of age. Younger patients were more often men (12.4% vs. 10.9% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.002) and had an increased prevalence of acute neurological (16.3% vs. 8.4% vs. 8.8%; p = 0.001) or psychiatric disorders (14.1% vs. 10.3% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001) compared with middle-aged and elderly TTS patients. Furthermore, younger patients had more often cardiogenic shock (15.3% vs. 9.1% vs. 8.1%; p = 0.004) and had a numerically higher in-hospital mortality (6.6% vs. 3.6% vs. 5.1%; p = 0.07). At multivariable analysis, younger (odds ratio: 1.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 3.01; p = 0.14) and older age (odds ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: 0.66 to 1.80; p = 0.75) were not independently associated with in-hospital mortality using the middle-aged group as a reference. There were no differences in 60-day mortality rates among groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of TTS patients are younger than 50 years of age. TTS is associated with severe complications requiring intensive care, particularly in younger patients.

Cardiac arrest in takotsubo syndrome: results from the InterTAK Registry

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the frequency, clinical features, and prognostic implications of cardiac arrest (CA) in takotsubo syndrome (TTS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reviewed the records of patients with CA and known heart rhythm from the International Takotsubo Registry. The main outcomes were 60-day and 5-year mortality. In addition, predictors of mortality and predictors of CA during the acute TTS phase were assessed. Of 2098 patients, 103 patients with CA and known heart rhythm during CA were included. Compared with patients without CA, CA patients were more likely to be younger, male, and have apical TTS, atrial fibrillation (AF), neurologic comorbidities, physical triggers, and longer corrected QT-interval and lower left ventricular ejection fraction on admission. In all, 57.1% of patients with CA at admission had ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia, while 73.7% of patients with CA in the acute phase had asystole/pulseless electrical activity. Patients with CA showed higher 60-day (40.3% vs. 4.0%, P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality (68.9% vs. 16.7%, P < 0.001) than patients without CA. T-wave inversion and intracranial haemorrhage were independently associated with higher 60-day mortality after CA, whereas female gender was associated with lower 60-day mortality. In the acute phase, CA occurred less frequently in females and more frequently in patients with AF, ST-segment elevation, and higher C-reactive protein on admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac arrest is relatively frequent in TTS and is associated with higher short- and long-term mortality. Clinical and electrocardiographic parameters independently predicted mortality after CA.

Intraventricular Thrombus Formation and Embolism in Takotsubo Syndrome

Objective:

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is characterized by acute left ventricular dysfunction, which can contribute to intraventricular thrombus and embolism. Still, prevalence and clinical impact of thrombus formation and embolic events on outcome of TTS patients remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate clinical features and outcomes of patients with and without intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Additionally, factors associated with thrombus formation or embolism, as well as predictors for mortality, were identified.

Approach and Results:

TTS patients enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry at 28 centers in Australia, Europe, and the United States were dichotomized according to the occurrence/absence of intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Patients with intraventricular thrombus or embolism were defined as the ThrombEmb group. Of 1676 TTS patients, 56 (3.3%) patients developed intraventricular thrombus and/or embolism following TTS diagnosis (median time interval, 2.0 days [range, 0–38 days]). Patients in the ThrombEmb group had a different clinical profile including lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher prevalence of the apical type, elevated levels of troponin and inflammatory markers, and higher prevalence of vascular disease. In a Firth bias-reduced penalized-likelihood logistic regression model apical type, left ventricular ejection fraction ≤30%, previous vascular disease, and a white blood cell count on admission >10×10 3 cells/μL emerged as independent predictors for thrombus formation or embolism.

Conclusions:

Intraventricular thrombus or embolism occur in 3.3% of patients in the acute phase of TTS. A simple risk score including clinical parameters associated with intraventricular thrombus formation or embolism identifies patients at increased risk.

Clinical Trial Registration:

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Clinical Predictors and Prognostic Impact of Recovery of Wall Motion Abnormalities in Takotsubo Syndrome: Results From the International Takotsubo Registry

Background

Left ventricular (LV) recovery in takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs over a wide‐ranging interval, varying from hours to weeks. We sought to investigate the clinical predictors and prognostic impact of recovery time for TTS patients.

Methods and Results

TTS patients from the International Takotsubo Registry were included in this study. Cut‐off for early LV recovery was determined to be 10 days after the acute event. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with the absence of early recovery. In‐hospital outcomes and 1‐year mortality were compared for patients with versus without early recovery. We analyzed 406 patients with comprehensive and serial imaging data regarding time to recovery. Of these, 191 (47.0%) had early LV recovery and 215 (53.0%) demonstrated late LV improvement. Patients without early recovery were more often male (12.6% versus 5.2%; P=0.011) and presented more frequently with typical TTS (76.3% versus 67.0%, P=0.040). Cardiac and inflammatory markers were higher in patients without early recovery than in those with early recovery. Patients without early recovery showed unfavorable 1‐year outcome compared with patients with early recovery (P=0.003). On multiple logistic regression, male sex, LV ejection fraction <45%, and acute neurologic disorders were associated with the absence of early recovery.

Conclusions

TTS patients without early LV recovery have different clinical characteristics and less favorable 1‐year outcome compared with patients with early recovery. The factors associated with the absence of early recovery included male sex, reduced LV ejection fraction, and acute neurologic events.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Takotsubo Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Prognosis of Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) remains controversial due to scarcity of available data. Additionally, the effect of the triggering factors remains elusive.

OBJECTIVES

This study compared prognosis between TTS and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients and investigated short- and long-term outcomes in TTS based on different triggers.

METHODS

Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry. Long-term mortality of patients with TTS was compared to an age- and sex-matched cohort of patients with ACS. In addition, short- and long-term outcomes were compared between different groups according to triggering conditions.

RESULTS

Overall, TTS patients had a comparable long-term mortality risk with ACS patients. Of 1,613 TTS patients, an emotional trigger was detected in 485 patients (30%). Of 630 patients (39%) related to physical triggers, 98 patients (6%) had acute neurologic disorders, while in the other 532 patients (33%), physical activities, medical conditions, or procedures were the triggering conditions. The remaining 498 patients (31%) had no identifiable trigger. TTS patients related to physical stress showed higher mortality rates than ACS patients during long-term follow-up, whereas patients related to emotional stress had better outcomes compared with ACS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, TTS patients had long-term outcomes comparable to age- and sex-matched ACS patients. Also, we demonstrated that TTS can either be benign or a life-threating condition depending on the inciting stress factor. We propose a new classification based on triggers, which can serve as a clinical tool to predict short- and long-term outcomes of TTS. (International Takotsubo Registry [InterTAK Registry]; NCT01947621).

Clinical Features and Outcomes of Patients With Malignancy and Takotsubo Syndrome: Observations From the International Takotsubo Registry

Background Clinical characteristics and outcomes of takotsubo syndrome (TTS) patients with malignancy have not been fully elucidated. This study sought to explore differences in clinical characteristics and to investigate short- and long-term outcomes in TTS patients with or without malignancy. Methods and Results TTS patients were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry. The TTS cohort was divided into patients with and without malignancy to investigate differences in clinical characteristics and to assess short- and long-term mortality. A subanalysis was performed comparing long-term mortality between a subset of TTS patients with or without malignancy and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with or without malignancy. Malignancy was observed in 16.6% of 1604 TTS patients. Patients with malignancy were older and more likely to have physical triggers, but less likely to have emotional triggers compared with those without malignancy. Long-term mortality was higher in patients with malignancy (P<0.001), while short-term outcome was comparable (P=0.17). In a subanalysis, long-term mortality was comparable between TTS patients with malignancies and ACS patients with malignancies (P=0.13). Malignancy emerged as an independent predictor of long-term mortality. Conclusions A substantial number of TTS patients show an association with malignancy. History of malignancy might increase the risk for TTS, and therefore, appropriate screening for malignancy should be considered in these patients. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrial.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Evaluation of discriminative capacity of two formulas of CKD-EPI to predict complications after the first episode of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Background: Determining the prognosis of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is problematic, as the ejection fraction cannot be used. Formulae that estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may be potential prognosticators for this condition, since renal dysfunction is a well-known predictor of poor outcomes of all forms of heart failure.

Methods: A prospective observational study of 117 HFpEF patients (average age 71.6±9.1 years; 65.8% women) who had eGFR determined after their first episode of cardiac decompensation by two different chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations. The ability to predict hospitalizations and mortality over 24 months by the two equations were compared.

Results: The CKD-EPI formula based on serum creatinine only performed poorly. However, the CKD-EPI equation that used both serum creatinine and serum cystatin C was associated with unfavorable outcome: eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m² predicted 24-month mortality (HR=4.21 [1.32;13.43], p=0.02) and the combined endpoint of mortality and hospitalization (HR 2.45 [1.42;4.22], p=0.001). .

Conclusions: eGFR by the CKD-EPI equation based on serum creatinine and cystatin C levels, but not by the CKD-EPI creatinine only equation, predicts the outcome of HFpEF patients.