Usefulness of CHA2DS2-VASc Score to Predict Stroke Risk Independent of Atrial Fibrillation

Stroke and bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation with CHA2DS2-VASC risk score of one: the Norwegian AFNOR study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The benefit of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) and intermediate stroke risk is debated. In a nationwide Norwegian cohort with a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score of one, this study aimed to investigate (i) stroke and bleeding risk in AF patients with and without OAC treatment, and (ii) the risk of stroke in non-anticoagulated individuals with and without AF.

METHODS

A total of 1 118 762 individuals including 34 460 AF patients were followed during 2011-18 until ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, increased CHA2DS2-VASc score, or study end. One-year incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as events per 100 person-years (%/py). Cox regression models provided adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs [95% confidence intervals]).

RESULTS

Among AF patients, the ischaemic stroke IR was 0.51%/py in OAC users and 1.05%/py in non-users (aHR 0.47 [0.37-0.59]). Intracranial haemorrhage IR was 0.28%/py in OAC users and 0.19%/py in non-users (aHR 1.23 [0.88-1.72]). Oral anticoagulant use was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.37 [1.16-1.63]) but lower risk of the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding, and mortality (aHR 0.57 [0.51-0.63]). Non-anticoagulated individuals with AF had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to non-AF individuals with the same risk profile (aHR 2.47 [2.17-2.81]).

CONCLUSIONS

In AF patients at intermediate risk of stroke, OAC use was associated with overall favourable clinical outcomes. Non-anticoagulated AF patients had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to the general population without AF with the same risk profile.

Risk Factors for Ischemic Stroke After Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background Stroke incidence is elevated after acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The aim of this study was to characterize risk factors related to ischemic stroke (IS) after ACS. Methods and Results We conducted a retrospective registry study based on the data of 8049 consecutive patients treated for ACS between 2007 and 2018 in Tays Heart Hospital with a follow-up until December 31, 2020. Potential risk factors were identified by in-depth review of written hospital records and causes-of-death registry data maintained by Statistics Finland. The association between individual risk factors, early-onset IS (0-30 days after ACS, n=82), and late-onset IS (31 days to 14 years after ACS, n=419) were analyzed using logistic regression and subdistribution hazard analysis. In multivariable analysis, the most substantial risk factors for early- and late-onset IS were previous stroke, atrial fibrillation or flutter, and heart failure status depicted by the Killip classification. Left ventricular ejection fraction and coronary artery disease severity were significant risk factors for early-onset IS; age and peripheral artery disease were significant risk factors for late-onset IS. The risk of early-onset IS with ≥6 CHA2DS2-VASc score points (odds ratio, 6.63 [95% Cl, 3.63-12.09]; P<0.001) was notable compared with patients with 1 to 3 points as well as the risk of late-onset IS with ≥6 points (subdistribution hazard, 6.03 [95% Cl, 3.71-9.81]; P<0.001) in comparison with patients with 1 point. Conclusions Factors related to high thromboembolic risk also predict IS risk after ACS. CHA2DS2-VASc score and its individual components are strong predictors for both early- and late-onset IS.

Rationale and design of the rigorous atrial analysis in advanced interatrial block (ARABIA) prospective study

BACKGROUND

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) is present in 10% of subjects ≥75 years and is associated with the risk of clinical events.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective multicenter study that will include subjects ≥75 years without exclusion criteria (indication for anticoagulation, cardiac devices, severe valve disease, systolic dysfunction, moderate or severe cognitive impairment, poor echocardiographic window, non-sinus rhythm or partial IAB, stroke, and life expectancy <2 years). A total of 356 subjects, 178 patients with advanced IAB (exposed) and 178 matched individuals with normal P-wave (non-exposed) will be included. Electrocardiogram and advanced transthoracic echocardiography will be performed. Two substudies will include magnetic resonance imaging: cardiac (86 subjects, 43 exposed, and 43 non-exposed) and brain (86 subjects, 43 exposed, and 43 non-exposed). The follow-up will be 2 years. Our main objective is to determine the association of advanced IAB, P-wave duration, and atrial imaging parameters (I] atrial global longitudinal strain, II] maximal left atrial volume index, III] left atrial ejection fraction, IV] left atrial fibrosis - % total left atrial area V] inter- and intra-atrial asynchrony/dyssynchrony) with clinical events (atrial fibrillation, stroke, cognitive impairment, and mortality). The secondary objective is to assess the association of the P-wave duration with atrial imaging parameters and of both with cerebral microemboli in magnetic resonance imaging.

CONCLUSION

Our study will provide data regarding the association of advanced IAB, P-wave duration, and atrial imaging parameters with clinical events. We will also assess the association P-wave duration-atrial imaging parameters-cerebral microemboli.

Relation of Advanced Interatrial Block to Risk of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke

Advanced interatrial block (A-IAB) has been associated to atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke, raising the question as to whether such patients, even when still in sinus rhythm without documented AF, could benefit from oral anticoagulation. AF and A-IAB are both markers of stroke. The anatomical substrate in both is fibrotic atrial cardiomyopathy, resulting in atrial electromechanical dyssynchrony, dysfunction, and left atrial remodelling, that favour blood stasis and hypercoagulation. Under these conditions thrombogenic cascade may be triggered, resulting in systemic embolization. Before proposing oral anticoagulation in the management of selected patients with A-IAB, as is currently recommended in patients with AF and high CHA₂DS₂-Vasc score, a randomized clinical trial will have to demonstrate efficacy and safety of anticoagulation in this setting. In the meantime, an individualized approach may be considered based on the recognition of those patients at a higher risk of stroke. These may be elderly patients with A-IAB and several risk factors and, thus, with a high CHA₂DS₂-Vasc score and the presence of environmental arrhythmias.

Advanced interatrial block and P-wave duration are associated with atrial fibrillation and stroke in older adults with heart disease: the BAYES registry

Aims

Advanced interatrial block (IAB), is an unrecognized surrogate of atrial dysfunction and a trigger of atrial dysrhythmias, mainly atrial fibrillation (AF). Our aim was to prospectively assess whether advanced IAB in sinus rhythm is associated with AF and stroke in elderly outpatients with structural heart disease, a group not previously studied.

Methods and results

Prospective observational registry that included outpatients aged ≥70 years with structural heart disease and no previous diagnosis of AF. Patients were divided into three groups: normal P-wave duration (&lt;120 ms), partial IAB (P-wave duration ≥120 ms, positive in the inferior leads), and advanced IAB [P-wave duration ≥120 ms, biphasic (plus/minus) morphology in the inferior leads]. Among 556 individuals, 223 had normal P-wave (40.1%), 196 partial IAB (35.3%), and 137 advanced IAB (24.6%). After a median follow-up of 694 days, 93 patients (16.7%) developed AF, 30 stroke (5.4%), and 34 died (6.1%). Advanced IAB was independently associated with AF –[hazard ratio (HR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7–5.1; P &lt; 0.001], stroke [HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.4–10.7; P = 0.010), and AF/stroke (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.5–4.4; P = 0.001). P-wave duration (ms) was independently associated with AF (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.07; P &lt; 0.001), AF/stroke (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06; P &lt; 0.001), and mortality (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.08; P = 0.021).

Conclusions

The presence of advanced IAB in sinus rhythm is independently associated with AF and stroke in an elderly population with structural heart disease and no previous diagnosis of AF. P-wave duration was also associated with all-cause mortality.

Association of CHA2 DS2 -VASc Score with Stroke, Thromboembolism, and Death in Hip Fracture Patients

OBJECTIVES

Patients undergoing hip fracture surgery have a 10 times increased risk of stroke compared with the general population. We aimed to evaluate the association between the CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke/TIA [transient ischemic attack]/systemic embolism (2 points), vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and female sex) score and the risk of stroke, thromboembolism, and all-cause mortality in patients with hip fracture with or without atrial fibrillation (AF).

DESIGN

Nationwide prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Danish hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Subjects were all incident hip fracture patients in Denmark age 65 years and older with surgical repair procedures between 2004 and 2016 (n = 78,096). Participants were identified using the Danish Multidisciplinary Hip Fracture Registry.

MEASUREMENTS

We calculated incidence rates, cumulative incidences, and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, stratified on AF history.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of ischemic stroke 1 year after hip fracture increased with ascending CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, and it was 1.9% for patients with a score of 1 and 8.6% for patients with a score above 5 in the AF group. Corresponding incidences in the non-AF group were 1.6% and 7.6%. Compared with a CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score of 1, adjusted HRs were 5.53 (95% CI = 1.37-22.24) among AF patients and 4.91 (95% CI = 3.40-7.10) among non-AF patients with a score above 5. A dose-response-like association was observed for all cardiovascular outcomes. All-cause mortality risks and HRs were substantially higher for all CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores above 1 in both the AF group and the non-AF group.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with hip fracture, a higher CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score was associated with increased risk of stroke, thromboembolism, and death. This finding applied both to patients with and without AF. Patients with high CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores had almost similar absolute risks for cardiovascular outcomes, irrespective of AF. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1698-1705, 2020.