Factors Associated With 90-Day Death After Emergency Department Discharge for Atrial Fibrillation

RAFF-5 Study to Improve the Quality and Safety of Care for Patients Seen in the Emergency Department With Acute Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter

BACKGROUND

We sought to improve the immediate and subsequent care of emergency department (ED) patients with acute atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter (AFL) by implementing the principles of the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians AF/AFL Best Practices Checklist.

METHODS

This cohort study included 3 periods: before (7 months), intervention introduction (1 month), and after (7 months), and was conducted at a major academic centre. We included patients who presented with an episode of acute AF or AFL and used multiple strategies to support ED adoption of the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians checklist. We developed new cardiology rapid-access follow-up processes. The main outcomes were unsafe and suboptimal treatments in the ED.

RESULTS

We included 1108 patient visits, with 559 in the before and 549 in the after period. In a comparison of the periods, there was an increase in use of chemical cardioversion (20.6% vs 25.0%; absolute difference [AD], 4.4%) and in electrical cardioversion (39.2% vs 51.2%; AD, 12.0%). More patients were discharged with sinus rhythm restored (66.9% vs 75.0%; AD, 8.1%). The proportion seen in a follow-up cardiology clinic increased from 24.2% to 39.9% (AD, 15.7%) and the mean time until seen decreased substantially (103.3 vs 49.0 days; AD, -54.3 days). There were very few unsafe cases (0.4% vs 0.7%) and, although there was an increase in suboptimal care (19.5% vs 23.1%), overall patient outcomes were excellent.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully improved the care for ED patients with acute AF/AFL and achieved more frequent and more rapid cardiology follow-up. Although cases of unsafe management were uncommon and patient outcomes were excellent, there are opportunities for physicians to improve their care of acute AF/AFL patients.

CLINICALTRIALS

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT05468281.

Aggressive Rhythm Control Strategy in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Presenting at the Emergency Department: The HEROMEDICUS Study Design and Initial Results

Atrial fibrillation has progressively become a more common reason for emergency department visits, representing 0.5% of presenting reasons. Registry data have indicated that about 60% of atrial fibrillation patients who present to the emergency department are admitted, emphasizing the need for more efficient management of atrial fibrillation in the acute phase. Management of atrial fibrillation in the setting of the emergency department varies between countries and healthcare systems. The most plausible reason to justify a conservative rather than an aggressive strategy in the management of atrial fibrillation is the absence of specific guidelines from diverse societies. Several trials of atrial fibrillation treatment strategies, including cardioversion, have demonstrated that atrial fibrillation in the emergency department can be treated safely and effectively, avoiding admission. In the present study, we present the epidemiology and characteristics of atrial fibrillation patients presenting to the emergency department, as well as the impact of diverse management strategies on atrial-fibrillation-related hospital admissions. Lastly, the design and initial data of the HEROMEDICUS protocol will be presented, which constitutes an electrophysiology-based aggressive rhythm control strategy in patients with atrial fibrillation in the emergency department setting.

A Scoping Review of Emergency Department Discharge Risk Stratification

INTRODUCTION

Although emergency department (ED) discharge presents patient-safety challenges and opportunities, the ways in which EDs address discharge risk in the general ED population remains disparate and largely uncharacterized. In this study our goal was to conduct a review of how EDs identify and target patients at increased risk at time of discharge.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search to explore how EDs assess patient risk upon discharge, including a review of PubMed and gray literature. After independently screening articles for inclusion, we recorded study characteristics including outcome measures, patient risk factors, and tool descriptions. Based on this review and discussion among collaborators, major themes were identified.

RESULTS

PubMed search yielded 384 potentially eligible articles. After title and abstract review, we screened 235 for potential inclusion. After full text and reference review, supplemented by Google Scholar and gray literature reviews, we included 30 articles for full review. Three major themes were elucidated: 1) Multiple studies include retrospective risk assessment, whereas the use of point-of-care risk assessment tools appears limited; 2) of the point-of-care tools that exist, inputs and outcome measures varied, and few were applicable to the general ED population; and 3) while many studies describe initiatives to improve the discharge process, few describe assessment of post-discharge resource needs.

CONCLUSION

Numerous studies describe factors associated with an increased risk of readmission and adverse events after ED discharge, but few describe point-of-care tools used by physicians for the general ED population. Future work is needed to investigate standardized tools that assess ED discharge risk and patients' needs upon ED discharge.

Oral anticoagulation for patients with atrial fibrillation in the ED: RE-LY AF registry analysis

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to determine predictors of OAC initiation in AF patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Secondary analysis of the RE-LY AF registry which enrolled individuals from 47 countries between 2007 and 2011 who presented to an ED with AF and followed them for 1 year. A total of 4149 patients with AF as their primary diagnosis who were not already taking OAC and had a CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥ 1 for men or ≥ 2 for women were included in this analysis. Of these individuals, 26.8% were started on OAC (99.2% vitamin K antagonists) in the ED and 29.8% were using OAC one year later. Factors associated with initiating OAC in the ED included: specialist consultation (relative risk [RR] 1.84, 95%CI 1.44-2.36), rheumatic heart disease (RR 1.60, 95%CI 1.29-1.99), persistence of AF at ED discharge (RR 1.33, 95%CI 1.18-1.50), diabetes mellitus (RR 1.32, 95%CI 1.19-1.47), and hospital admission (RR 1.30, 95%CI 1.14-1.47). Heart failure (RR 0.83, 95%CI 0.74-0.94), antiplatelet agents (RR 0.77, 95%CI 0.69-0.84), and dementia (RR 0.61, 95%CI 0.40-0.94) were inversely associated with OAC initiation. Patients taking OAC when they left the ED were more likely using OAC at 1-year (RR 2.81, 95%CI 2.55-3.09) and had lower rates of death (RR 0.55, 95%CI 0.38-0.79) and stroke (RR 0.59, 95%CI 0.37-0.96). In patients with AF presenting to the ED, prompt initiation of OAC and specialist involvement are associated with a greater use of OAC 1 year later and may result in improved clinical outcomes.

Evaluation of the Risk of Stroke Without Anticoagulation Therapy in Men and Women With Atrial Fibrillation Aged 66 to 74 Years Without Other CHA2DS2-VASc Factors

Importance

There are limited clinical trial data and discrepant recommendations regarding use of anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) aged 65 to 74 years without other stroke risk factors.

Objectives

To evaluate the risk of stroke without anticoagulation therapy in men and women with AF aged 66 to 74 years without other CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, female sex) risk factors and examine the association of stroke incidence with patient age.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using linked administrative databases. The population included 16 351 individuals aged 66 to 74 years who were newly diagnosed with AF in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2017. Exclusion criteria included long-term care residence, prior anticoagulation therapy, valvular disease, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, and vascular disease. The cumulative incidence function was used to estimate the 1-year incidence of stroke in patients who did not receive anticoagulation therapy. Fine-Gray regression was used to study the association of patient characteristics with stroke incidence and derive estimates of stroke risk at each age. Death was treated as a competing risk and patients were censored if they initiated anticoagulation therapy. Inverse probability of censoring weights was used to account for patient censoring. Data analysis was performed from May 26, 2019, to December 9, 2020.

Exposures

Atrial fibrillation and age.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hospitalizations for stroke.

Results

Of the 16 351 individuals with AF (median [interquartile range] age, 70 [68-72] years), 8352 (51.1%) were men; 6314 individuals (38.6%) started anticoagulation therapy during follow-up. The overall 1-year stroke incidence among patients who did not receive anticoagulation therapy was 1.1% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.3%) and the incidence of death without stroke was 8.1% (95% CI, 7.7%-8.5%). The incidence of stroke was not significantly associated with sex. The estimated 1-year stroke risk increased with patient age from 66 years (0.7%; 95% CI, 0.5%-0.9%) to 74 years (1.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.1%).

Conclusions and Relevance

The risk of stroke more than doubled in this study as men and women with AF but no other CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors aged from 66 to 74 years. These data suggest that anticoagulation therapy is more likely to benefit older individuals within this group of patients, whereas younger individuals are less likely to gain net clinical benefit from anticoagulation therapy.

Differences in Healthcare Use Between Patients With Persistent and Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Catheter-Based Atrial Fibrillation Ablation: A Population-Based Cohort Study From Ontario, Canada

Background Patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing catheter-based AF ablation have lower success rates than those with paroxysmal AF. We compared healthcare use and clinical outcomes between patients according to their AF subtypes. Methods and Results Consecutive patients undergoing AF ablation were prospectively identified from a population-based registry in Ontario, Canada. Via linkage with administrative databases, we performed a retrospective analysis comparing the following outcomes between patients with persistent and paroxysmal AF: healthcare use (defined as AF-related hospitalizations/emergency room visits), periprocedural complications, and mortality. Multivariable Poisson modeling was performed to compare the rates of AF-related and all-cause hospitalizations/emergency room visits in the year before versus after ablation. Between April 2012 and March 2016, there were 3768 consecutive patients who underwent first-time AF ablation, of whom 1040 (27.6%) had persistent AF. The mean follow-up was 1329 days. Patients with persistent AF had higher risk of AF-related hospitalization/emergency room visits (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.34), mortality (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.15-2.63), and periprocedural complications (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.75) than those with paroxysmal AF. In the overall cohort, there was a 48% reduction in the rate of AF-related hospitalization/emergency room visits in the year after versus before ablation (rate ratio [RR], 0.52; 95% CI, 0.48-0.56). This reduction was observed for patients with paroxysmal (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.41-0.50) and persistent (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.87) AF. Conclusions Although patients with persistent AF had higher risk of adverse outcomes than those with paroxysmal AF, ablation was associated with a favorable reduction in downstream AF-related healthcare use, irrespective of AF type.

Population Trends in All-Cause Mortality and Cause Specific-Death With Incident Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have evaluated population‐level temporal trends in mortality and cause of death in patients with contemporary managed atrial fibrillation. This study reports the temporal trends in 1‐year overall and cause‐specific mortality in patients with incident atrial fibrillation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with incident atrial fibrillation presenting to an emergency department or hospitalized in Ontario, Canada, were identified in population‐level linked administrative databases that included data on vital statistics and cause of death. Temporal trends in 1‐year all‐cause and cause‐specific mortality was determined for individuals identified between April 1, 2007 (fiscal year [FY] 2007) and March 31, 2016 (FY 2015). The study cohort consisted of 110 302 individuals, 69±15 years of age with a median congestive heart failure, hypertension, age (≥75 years), diabetes mellitus, stroke (2 points), vascular disease, age (≥65 years), sex category (female) score of 2.8. There was no significant decline in the adjusted 1‐year all‐cause mortality between the first and last years of the study period (adjusted mortality: FY 2007, 8.0%; FY 2015, 7.8%; P for trend=0.68). Noncardiovascular death accounted for 61% of all deaths; the adjusted 1‐year noncardiovascular mortality rate rose from 4.5% in FY 2007 to 5.2% in FY 2015 (P for trend=0.007). In contrast, the 1‐year cardiovascular mortality rate decreased from 3.5% in FY 2007 to 2.6% in FY 2015 (P for trend=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall 1‐year all‐cause mortality in individuals with incident atrial fibrillation has not improved despite a significant reduction in the rate of cardiovascular death. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing and managing concomitant noncardiovascular conditions in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION AND METHODS

Early and accurate risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED) could aid the physician in determining a timely treatment strategy appropriate to the severity of disease. We conducted a retrospective review of 243 adult patients who presented to a tertiary ED with AF in 2017. Primary outcome studied was 30-day adverse event (a composite outcome of repeat visit to the ED, cardiovascular complications, and all-cause mortality). Secondary outcome studied was 90-day all-cause mortality. We compared the performance of the RED-AF, AFTER and CHA2DS2-VASc score by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and estimating the areas under curves (AUC), and assessed the potential to further improve the tools with their incorporation of new variables.

RESULTS

Existing scoring tools had poor predictive value for 30-day adverse events, with the RED-AF score performing comparatively better, followed by the AFTER and CHA2DS2-VASc score. All scores performed collectively better to predict 90-day mortality, with the AFTER score performing the best, followed by the RED-AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score. By incorporating heart rate at initial presentation to the ED as a variable into the AFTER Score, we generated a Modified AFTER Score with superior predictive performance above existing scores for 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Existing scores collectively performed poorly to predict 30-day adverse outcomes, but the AFTER and Modified AFTER score showed good predictive value for 90-day mortality. Further studies should be done to validate their use in guiding clinician's disposition of patients with AF in the ED.

Practice Gap in Atrial Fibrillation Oral Anticoagulation Prescribing at Emergency Department Home Discharge

INTRODUCTION

Current U.S. cardiology guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation (OAC) to reduce stroke risk in selected patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but no formal AF OAC recommendations exist to guide emergency medicine clinicians in the acute care setting. We sought to characterize emergency department (ED) OAC prescribing practices after an ED AF diagnosis.

METHODS

This retrospective study included index visits for OAC-naive patients ≥18 years old who were discharged home from the ED at an urban, academic, tertiary hospital with a primary diagnosis of AF from 2012-2014. Five hypothesis-blinded, chart reviewers abstracted data from patient problem lists and medical history in the electronic health record to assess stroke (CHA₂DS₂-VASc) and bleeding risk (HAS-BLED). The primary outcome was the provision of an OAC prescription at discharge in OAC-naive patients with high stroke risk. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression assessed associations between OAC prescription and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

We included 138 patient visits in our analysis, of whom 39.9% (n = 55) were low stroke risk (CHA₂DS₂-VASc = 0 in males and 1 in females), 15.9% (n = 22) were intermediate risk (CHA₂DS₂-VASc = 1 in males), and 44.2% (n = 61) were high risk (CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥ 2). Of patients with high stroke risk and low-to-intermediate bleeding risk (n = 57), 80.7% were not prescribed an OAC at discharge. Cardiology consultation and female gender, but not stroke risk (CHA₂DS₂-VASc score), were predictors of an ED provider prescribing an OAC to an OAC-naive AF patient at ED discharge.

CONCLUSION

The majority of OAC-eligible patients were discharged home without an OAC prescription. In OAC-naive patients discharged home from the ED, cardiology consultation and female gender were associated with OAC prescription. Our findings suggest that access to expert opinion may improve provider comfort with OAC prescribing and highlight the need for improved guidelines specific to ED-management of AF.

An Atrial Fibrillation Transitions of Care Clinic Improves Atrial Fibrillation Quality Metrics

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess whether an atrial fibrillation (AF)-specific clinic is associated with improved adherence to American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) clinical performance and quality measures for adults with AF or atrial flutter.

BACKGROUND

There are significant gaps in care of patients with AF, including underprescription of anticoagulation and treatment of AF risk factors. An AF specialized clinic was developed to reduce admissions for AF but may also be associated with improved quality of care.

METHODS

This retrospective study compared adherence to ACC/AHA measures for patients who presented to the emergency department for AF between those discharged to a typical outpatient appointment and those discharged to a specialized AF transitions clinic run by an advanced practice provider and supervised by a cardiologist. Screening and treatment for common AF risk factors was also assessed.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 78 patients into the control group and 160 patients into the intervention group. Patients referred to the specialized clinic were more likely to have stroke risk assessed and documented (99% vs. 26%; p < 0.01); be prescribed appropriate anticoagulation (97% vs. 88%; p = 0.03); and be screened for comorbidities such as tobacco use (100% vs. 14%; p < 0.01), alcohol use (92% vs. 60%; p < 0.01), and obstructive sleep apnea (90% vs. 13%; p < 0.01) and less likely to be prescribed an inappropriate combination of anticoagulant and antiplatelet medications (1% vs. 9%; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

An AF specialized clinic was associated with improved adherence to ACC/AHA clinical performance and quality measures for adult patients with AF.

Transitions in Atrial Fibrillation Care: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly transition between care settings and providers. These transitions are often points in the health care system where errors and clinical deterioration can occur. Anticoagulation interruption or discontinuation and sub-optimal follow-up post-emergency department (ED) discharge are considered major transitional issues.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to synthesise the evidence examining the impact of transitional care interventions on patient, provider, and health care utilisation outcomes.

METHODS

This systematic mixed studies review examined citations from four databases Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Controlled Register of Trials (CENTRAL) using relevant search terms. Fourteen (14) moderate to high quality articles were selected.

RESULTS

The available evidence reporting impacts of transitional interventions on health care utilisation, provider, and patient outcomes in AF patients is mixed and of variable quality. The stronger evidence revealed improvements in patient outcomes including knowledge, quality of life, and medication adherence and increased provider anticoagulant prescriptions resulting from transitional interventions. Hospital admissions and ED visits were not significantly affected by any interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Apps and educational toolkits improved patient knowledge. Pathways increased patient quality of life and provider prescription rates. There is a need for more research to determine the AF transition interventions which maximise patient, provider and health care outcomes.

Impact of cardiology follow-up care on treatment and outcomes of patients with new atrial fibrillation discharged from the emergency department

Aims

The first presentation of atrial fibrillation (AF) is often to an emergency department (ED). We evaluated the association of subsequent specialist care with morbidity and mortality.

Methods and results

Retrospective cohort study of all adults in Alberta, Canada, with a new primary diagnosis of AF treated and released during an index ED visit between 2009 and 2015. Types of physician follow-up within 3 months of ED visit was analysed using Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates. Outcomes were evaluated at 1 year. Of 7986 patients, 476 (6.0%) had no physician follow-up within 3 months, whereas 2730 (34.2%) attended a non-specialist only, 1277 (16.0%) an internal medicine specialist, and 3503 (43.9%) cardiology. An increasing gradient of cardiac investigations occurred across these groups. Cardiology compared with non-cardiologist care was associated with approximately two-fold greater electrophysiology interventions and revascularization, and increased use of beta-blockers (48.9% vs. 43.0%, P &lt; 0.0001), statins (31.4% vs. 26.7%, P &lt; 0.0001), and oral anticoagulation in patients with CHADS2 scores ≥1 (53.7% vs. 43.6%, P &lt; 0.0001). In the subsequent year, cardiology care was associated with fewer deaths [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55–0.93], strokes (aHR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37–0.96), or major bleeds (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53–0.89). No differences in the risk of hospitalization or ED visits were associated with cardiology care.

Conclusion

Cardiology care after an ED visit for symptomatic new-onset AF is associated with better prognosis. The benefit may be mediated through more intensive investigation, identification, and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.

Association of Follow-Up Care With Long-Term Death and Subsequent Hospitalization in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Receive Emergency Care in the Province of Ontario

Background:

Currently, 11% of patients seen in the emergency department for atrial fibrillation die within 1 year of the visit. Our objective was to examine the association of rapid (within 3 days), early (7 days), and basic (30 days) outpatient physician follow-up with short- and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation discharged from an emergency department.

Methods:

This retrospective cohort study included all adult patients discharged from one of the 163 emergency departments in Ontario, Canada with a primary diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, 2007 to 2014. We used a landmark analysis with propensity score matching, and logistic regression, to assess all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations at 1 year and 90 days, 30-day return emergency visits, and 1-year oral anticoagulation prescription fills.

Results:

In the 10 657 patients with rapid follow-up care who were propensity score matched to a patient with follow-up between days 4 and 7, the hazard of a return emergency visit was reduced by 11% (HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80–0.98]). It was not associated with mortality or hospitalization. In the 17 234 patients with early follow-up who were matched to a patient with care between days 8 and 30, the rate of 1-year mortality was 11% lower (HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81–0.97]) and 1-year hospitalization was 6% lower (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89–1.00]). Relative to no 30-day care, basic follow-up care was associated with an increased hazard of 90-day hospitalization (HR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.12–1.56]) but was no longer associated with mortality. In patients with early follow-up, the odds of filling an oral anticoagulation prescription a year later were 64% higher than those without it (OR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.54–1.78]).

Conclusions:

Compared with follow-up care between days 8 and 30, follow-up within a week after discharge from an emergency department with atrial fibrillation was associated with a reduction in the rate of death and hospitalization within 1 year, an association that was not present with 30-day follow-up.

Likelihood of Spontaneous Cardioversion of Atrial Fibrillation Using a Conservative Management Strategy Among Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department

Numerous emergency department (ED) atrial fibrillation (AF) protocols have been developed to reduce hospitalizations, focusing on the use of cardioversion in the ED. An alternative strategy of rate control with early specialty follow-up may be more widely applicable. The likelihood of spontaneous cardioversion with such a protocol is unknown. Between 2015 and 2018, 157 patients who presented to the ED with a primary diagnosis of AF and were hemodynamically stable and with low to moderate symptom severity were discharged with early follow-up at an AF specialty clinic. Rhythm at short-term (within 72 hours), within 30-day follow-up, and need for electrical cardioversion was tabulated. Various demographic and co-morbidity variables were assessed to determine their association with likelihood of spontaneous cardioversion. At an average of 2.3 days, 63% and within 30 days, 83% had spontaneous cardioversion. By 90 days, only 6.3% required electrical cardioversion. Diabetes (38% vs 69%, p <0.01), coronary artery disease (39% vs 66%, p = 0.02), reduced ejection fraction (40% vs 72%, p <0.01), dilated right atrium (43% vs 73%, p <0.01) and moderate-to-severely dilated left atrium (38% vs 78%, p <0.01) predicted those who were less likely to convert to sinus rhythm. Most patients who present to the ED with AF will spontaneously convert to sinus rhythm by short-term (2 to 3 days) follow-up with a rate control strategy. In conclusion, aggressive use of electrical cardioversion in the ED may be unnecessary in hemodynamically stable patients without severe symptoms.

Prognostic impact of atrial fibrillation and flutter temporal pattern on anticoagulation and return visits to the emergency department: A historic cohort of 1112 patients

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) visits due to atrial fibrillation and flutter (AFF) are common, and provide an opportunity to define stroke risk. The prognostic impact of AFF duration on return ED visits is unknown. We aimed to investigate both the prognostic impact of AFF classification on ED visits and the adherence to guideline recommendations on anticoagulation.

METHODS

This single-center historic cohort of every patient treated for AFF in our ED during 2012. Follow-up data was obtained on May 2015 (median follow-up of 863 days).

RESULTS

Among 1112 patients (495 Paroxysmal AF - parAF, 475 Persistent AF - persAF, and 142 flutter), those with parAF were less frequently under oral anticoagulation than persAF and flutter patients (15.8%, 39.4%, 40.1%, p < 0.01). Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores of parAF were lower than persAF (2.2 vs. 3.12, p < 0.01), and did not differ from those with flutter. Return visits to the ED were highest among flutter patients and lowest among parAF (49.3% vs. 37.2%, p < 0.01). Heart failure, hypertension, female gender and atrial flutter were independent risk factors for repeated visits on multivariate regression.

CONCLUSIONS

AFF duration provide prognostic information in the ED. ED return visits were common and particularly incident among flutter patients. Furthermore, stroke risk was high and anticoagulation rates were low across all groups. Patients with paroxysmal AF were less commonly anticoagulated even though their mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 2.2. These results reveal that guideline adherence is still lacking and should raise awareness to a stricter patient follow-up after ED visits.

Lifetime Pattern of Atrial Fibrillation and the Risks of Stroke and Death in a Population-based Cohort of Men (from The Manitoba Follow-Up Study)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with stroke and mortality. The arrhythmia can be sustained or intermittent. Previous studies that have used fixed covariates and short-time horizons to examine the relation between the pattern of AF and the occurrence of events have produced conflicting results. The Manitoba Follow-Up Study includes 3,983 originally healthy men who have been followed with routine examinations since 1948. AF status during each visit was classified into the following patterns: free of AF, newly diagnosed; intermittent AF-in sinus;intermittent AF-in AF; sustained AF. We created adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates to estimate risks for stroke and death according to AF pattern. After 167,982 person-years of follow-up and 66,297 electrocardiograms (ECGs), 548 men had at least 1 ECG documenting AF, 799 had a stroke, and 3173 died. Relative to men free of AF, sustained and newly diagnosed AF were associated with stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33 to 2.59 and HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.66, respectively) and death (HR 2.48, 95% CI 2.11 to 2.92 and HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.64 to 2.52, respectively). Intermittent AF was associated with death (HR 2.41 95% CI 1.58 to 3.68 in AF and HR 1.71 95% CI 1.44 to 2.03 in sinus), but not with stroke (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.22 to 2.13 in AF and HR 1.02 95% CI 0.72 to 1.45 in sinus). Antithrombotic therapy was associated with a reduced risk of the outcomes. In conclusion, longitudinal analysis of patterns of AF evolving over time provided evidence that the associated risks of stroke and death vary considerably with rhythm classification on serial ECGs.

A clinical decision instrument to predict 30-day death and cardiovascular hospitalizations after an emergency department visit for atrial fibrillation: The Atrial Fibrillation in the Emergency Room, Part 2 (AFTER2) study

BACKGROUND

In previous work, we derived and validated a tool that predicts 30-day mortality in emergency department atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a tool that predicts a composite of 30-day mortality and return cardiovascular hospitalizations.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study at 24 emergency departments in Ontario, Canada, included patients with a primary diagnosis of AF who were seen between April 2008 and March 2009. We assessed a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and subsequent hospitalizations for a cardiovascular reason, including stroke.

RESULTS

Of 3,510 patients, 2,343 were randomly selected for the derivation cohort, leaving 1,167 in the validation cohort. The composite outcome occurred in 227 (9.7%) and 125 (10.7%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Eleven variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, not taking anticoagulation, HAS-BLED score of ≥3, 3 laboratory results (positive troponin, supratherapeutic international normalized ratio, and elevated creatinine), emergency department administration of furosemide, and 4 patient comorbidities (heart failure, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancer, dementia). In the validation cohort, the observed 30-day outcomes in the 5 risk strata that were defined using the derivation cohort were 2.0%, 6.6%, 10.7%, 12.5%, and 20.0%. The c statistic was 0.73 and 0.69 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a population-based sample, we derived and validated a tool that predicts the risk of early death and rehospitalization for a cardiovascular reason in emergency department AF patients. The tool can offer information to managing physicians about the risk of death and rehospitalization for AF patients seen in the in emergency department, as well as identify patient groups for future targeted interventions aimed at preventing these outcomes.

Management and Disposition of Atrial Fibrillation in the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review

Introduction

Management of atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) in the emergency department (ED) varies greatly, and there are currently no United States guidelines to guide management with regard to patient disposition after ED treatment. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the literature for decision aids to guide disposition of patients with AF/AFLin the ED, and assess potential outcomes associated with different management strategies in the ED.

Methods and Results

A systematic review was done using PubMed (MEDLINE), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and EMBASE, combining the search terms "Atrial Fibrillation", "Atrial Flutter", "Emergency Medicine", "Emergency Service", and "Emergency Treatment". After removal of duplicates, 754 articles were identified. After initial screening of titles and abstracts, 69full text articles were carefully reviewed and 34 articles were ultimately included in the study based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The articles were grouped into four main categories: decision aids and outcome predictors, electrical cardioversion-based protocols, antiarrhythmic-based protocols, and general management protocols.

Conclusion

This systematic review is the first study to our knowledge to evaluate the optimal management of symptomatic AF/AFLin the ED with a direct impact on ED disposition. There are several viable management strategies that can result in safe discharge from the ED in the right patient population, and decision aids can be utilized to guide selection of appropriate patients for discharge.

Effect of Electrophysiology Assessment on Mortality and Hospitalizations in Patients With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Few patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receive care by cardiac electrophysiologists. Although previous work has highlighted differential care for patients with AF treated by electrophysiologists, it is unclear whether this is associated with improved clinical outcomes. This retrospective population-level propensity score-matched cohort study included patients aged 20 to 80 years with new-onset AF presenting to an emergency department (ED) in Ontario, Canada, between 2010 and 2012. Patients were followed until March 31, 2015. Patients who saw an electrophysiologist within 1 year of the index ED visit were matched to patients who did not see an electrophysiologist. Linked administrative databases were used for cohort construction and allow 1-year follow-up to assess for the clinical end points of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for AF, heart failure, bleeding, and stroke. A total of 5,221 unique pairs of patients were matched. One hundred seventeen patients (2.2%) in the electrophysiologist cohort underwent an AF ablation procedure during the 1-year follow-up period. All-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.1, p = 0.17) and stroke (HR = 1.4, p = 0.09) were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Hospitalization for AF (HR = 1.4, p <0.001), bleeding (HR = 1.5, p = 0.0001), and congestive heart failure (HR = 1.5, p <0.0001) was increased in the group that saw an electrophysiologist. In conclusion, electrophysiologist care was not associated with improved clinical outcomes in patients with new-onset AF.

Thromboprophylaxis for Patients with High-risk Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Discharged from the Emergency Department

Introduction

Many patients with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (AF/FL) who are high risk for ischemic stroke are not receiving evidence-based thromboprophylaxis. We examined anticoagulant prescribing within 30 days of receiving dysrhythmia care for non-valvular AF/FL in the emergency department (ED).

Methods

This prospective study included non-anticoagulated adults at high risk for ischemic stroke (ATRIA score ≥7) who received emergency AF/FL care and were discharged home from seven community EDs between May 2011 and August 2012. We characterized oral anticoagulant prescribing patterns and identified predictors of receiving anticoagulants within 30 days of the index ED visit. We also describe documented reasons for withholding anticoagulation.

Results

Of 312 eligible patients, 128 (41.0%) were prescribed anticoagulation at ED discharge or within 30 days. Independent predictors of anticoagulation included age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.89 per year, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82–0.96); ED cardiology consultation (aOR 1.89, 95% CI [1.10–3.23]); and failure of sinus restoration by time of ED discharge (aOR 2.65, 95% CI [1.35–5.21]). Reasons for withholding anticoagulation at ED discharge were documented in 139 of 227 cases (61.2%), the most common of which were deferring the shared decision-making process to the patient’s outpatient provider, perceived bleeding risk, patient refusal, and restoration of sinus rhythm.

Conclusion

Approximately 40% of non-anticoagulated AF/FL patients at high risk for stroke who presented for emergency dysrhythmia care were prescribed anticoagulation within 30 days. Physicians were less likely to anticoagulate older patients and those with ED sinus restoration. Opportunities exist to improve rates of thromboprophylaxis in this high-risk population.

Acute Management of Atrial Fibrillation: From Emergency Department to Cardiac Care Unit

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation is increasing rapidly, resulting in more patients presenting for care in the emergency department and in-hospital settings. To reduce morbidity and mortality, and improve patient quality of life, clinicians working in these settings need to be both current and facile in their approach to management of these patients. Frequent updates to guideline recommendations (based on emerging research) make this challenging for practicing physicians. This article reviews the acute management of atrial fibrillation in the emergency and in-hospital settings, including practical approaches to rhythm and rate control, anticoagulation, and special situations, incorporating the most up-to-date guidelines.

Predictors of obtaining follow-up care in the province of Ontario, Canada, following a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and hypertension in the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

Patients with cardiovascular diseases are common in the emergency department (ED), and continuity of care following that visit is needed to ensure that they receive evidence-based diagnostic tests and therapy. We examined the frequency of follow-up care after discharge from an ED with a new diagnosis of one of three cardiovascular diseases.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with a new diagnosis of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or hypertension, who were discharged from 157 non-pediatric EDs in Ontario, Canada, between April 2007 and March 2014. We determined the frequency of follow-up care with a family physician, cardiologist, or internist within seven and 30 days, and assessed the association of patient, emergency physician, and family physician characteristics with obtaining follow-up care using cause-specific hazard modeling.

RESULTS

There were 41,485 qualifying ED visits. Just under half (47.0%) had follow-up care within seven days, with 78.7% seen by 30 days. Patients with serious comorbidities (renal failure, dementia, COPD, stroke, coronary artery disease, and cancer) had a lower adjusted hazard of obtaining 7-day follow-up care (HRs 0.77-0.95) and 30-day follow-up care (HR 0.76-0.95). The only emergency physician characteristic associated with follow-up care was 5-year emergency medicine specialty training (HR 1.11). Compared to those whose family physician was remunerated via a primarily fee-for-service model, patients were less likely to obtain 7-day follow-up care if their family physician was remunerated via three types of capitation models (HR 0.72, 0.81, 0.85) or via traditional fee-for-service (HR 0.91). Findings were similar for 30-day follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Only half of patients discharged from an ED with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and hypertension were seen within a week of being discharged. Patients with significant comorbidities were less likely to obtain follow-up care, as were those with a family physician who was remunerated via primarily capitation methods.

The Transition of Care Between Emergency Department and Primary Care: A Scoping Study

OBJECTIVES

Patients with chronic diseases are often forced to seek emergency care for exacerbations. In the face of large predicted increases in the prevalence of chronic diseases, there is increased pressure to avoid hospitalizing these patients at the end of the ED visit, if they can obtain the care they need in the outpatient setting. We performed this scoping study to provide a broad overview of the published literature on the transition of care between ED and primary care following ED discharge.

METHODS

We performed a MEDLINE search of English-language articles published between 1990 and March 2015. We created a data-charting form a priori of the search. Papers were organized into themes, with new themes created when none of the existing themes matched the paper. Papers with multiple themes were assigned preferentially to the theme that was consistent with their primary objectives. We created a descriptive numerical summary of the included studies.

RESULTS

Of 1,138 titles, there were 252 potentially relevant abstracts, and among those 122 met criteria for full paper review. An additional 11 papers were acquired from reference review. From the 133 papers, 85 were included in the study. The papers were categorized into seven themes. These included Follow-up compliance and its predictors (38 studies), Telephone calls to discharged ED patients (15 studies), ED navigators (14 studies), The current system (nine studies), Ways to alert primary care providers (PCPs) of the ED visit (seven studies), and Patient views and PCP information requirements (one each). In the Follow-up compliance and predictors theme, the two most frequently identified significant predictors for increasing the frequency of follow-up care were the provision of a follow-up appointment time prior to ED departure and the presence of health insurance. Follow-up telephone calls to patients resulted in better follow-up rates, but increased ED return visits in some studies. In the current system patients themselves are the conduit, and the barriers to follow-up care can be high. E-mail and/or electronic medical record alerts to the PCP are relatively new, and no studies limited the alerts to patients who had a defined need for follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

A plethora of work has been published on the transition of care from ED to primary care. To decrease hospitalizations among the upcoming wave of patients with chronic diseases, it appears that the two most efficient areas to target are a primary care follow-up appointment system and health insurance. Further research is needed in particular to identify the patients who actually need follow-up care and to develop information technology solutions that can be effectively implemented within the current emergency healthcare system.

Emergency department presentations for atrial fibrillation and flutter in Alberta: a large population-based study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) are not infrequent presenting problems in Emergency Departments (ED); however, little is known of the pattern of these presentations. This study provides a description of AFF presentations and outcomes after ED discharge in Alberta.

METHODS

Provincial administrative databases were used to obtain all primary ED encounters for AFF during 1999 to 2011 for patients aged >35 years. Data extracted included demographics, ED visit timing, and subsequent visits to non-ED settings. Analysis included summaries and standardized rates.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 63,398 ED AFF visits from 32,104 distinct adults. Median ages for females and males were 75 and 67 years, respectively; more men (52%) and patients > 65 presented. Overall, the standardized rates remained similar (2.8 per 1,000 over the study period). Specific populations of human services recipients and First Nations had higher ED visit rates for AFF than other groups. Predictable daily, weekly, and monthly trends were observed. The ED visits were followed by numerous subsequent visits in non-ED settings; however, First Nations and women had lower rates of specialist follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Annually, over 5,000 ED presentations of patients experiencing AFF occur in Alberta and admissions proportions are declining. While presentation rates across the province are stable, follow-up with physicians, consultation with cardiologists and health outcomes vary based on socio-economic, age, sex, and First Nations status. Further research is required to understand the causes and consequences of these inequalities and to standardize care.

Predictors and clinical outcomes of inpatient versus ambulatory management after an emergency department visit for atrial fibrillation: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

There is substantial variation in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED), particularly whether these patients are admitted to hospital. We sought to identify factors that predict admission and to examine the relationship between AF admission and outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of patients ≥20 years of age who had an index ED visit with a primary diagnosis of AF from between April 1, 2005, and March 31, 2010, in Ontario, Canada. We excluded patients who died during the index ED visit or hospitalization. A hierarchical logistic regression model was used to determine predictors of hospital admission during the index ED visit. A propensity-matched analysis was used to test for associations between hospital admission and 1-year outcomes.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 33,699 patients, of whom 16,270 (48.3%) were admitted to hospital. Substantial variation was seen across the 154 hospitals, with admission rates ranging from 3.0% to 91.0%. Admitted patients had higher rates of comorbidities compared to discharged patients. Mortality rates at 1 year were significantly higher in matched admitted versus discharged patients (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.33-1.57, P < .001), as were all-cause hospitalizations (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.13-1.22, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Wide practice variation was observed between hospitals in terms of the proportion of patients admitted. Our data suggest that selected patients when discharged have similar or improved outcomes compared to those who are initially admitted. Future research is needed to better standardize admission/discharge decisions for AF patients in the ED.

A Clinical Decision Instrument for 30-Day Death After an Emergency Department Visit for Atrial Fibrillation: The Atrial Fibrillation in the Emergency Room (AFTER) Study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The high volume of patients treated in an emergency department (ED) for atrial fibrillation is predicted to increase significantly in the next few decades. Currently, 11% of these patients die within a year. We sought to derive and validate a complex model and a simplified model that predicts mortality in ED patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

This population-based, retrospective cohort study included 3,510 adult patients with a primary diagnosis of atrial fibrillation who were treated at 24 hospital EDs in Ontario, Canada, between April 2008 and March 2009. The main outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort (n=2,343; mean age 68.8 years), 2.6% of patients died within 30 days of the ED visit versus 2.7% in the validation cohort (n=1,167; mean age 68.3 years). Variables associated with mortality in the complex model included age, presenting pulse rate and systolic blood pressure, presence of chest pain, 2 laboratory results (positive troponin result and creatinine level greater than 200 μmol [2.26 mg/dL]), 4 comorbidities (smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer, and dementia), an increased bleeding risk, and a second acute ED diagnosis (in addition to atrial fibrillation). Observed 30-day mortality in the 5 risk strata that were defined by the predicted probability of death were 0.44%, 0.41%, 0.23%, 1.61%, and 10.3%. The c statistics were 0.88 and 0.87 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The a priori-selected 6-variable model, TrOPs-BAC, included a positive Troponin result, Other acute ED diagnosis, Pulmonary disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), Bleeding risk, Aged 75 years or older, and Congestive heart failure. The c statistic for the simplified model was 0.81 in both the derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Using a population-based sample, we derived and validated both a complex and a simplified instrument that predicts mortality after an emergency visit for atrial fibrillation. These may aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients for hospitalization while safely discharging more patients home.

Emergency Department Re-Presentation for Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter

BACKGROUND

Identification and appropriate management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is critical to mitigate the consequences of the disease. We sought to assess the frequency and pattern of the emergency department (ED) use by patients who presented with AF and/or atrial flutter (AFL) in a midsized Canadian hospital.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients who presented to the ED with AF and/or AFL during the calendar years 2010-2012. Patients were identified using the MUSE (General Electric Healthcare, Bucks, United Kingdom) electrocardiogram database and matched with the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and Discharge Abstract Database up to and including December 31, 2013, a follow-up period of 12 months. The number of presentations and time between visits was assessed. Admissions were identified and lengths of stay and reason for admission were recorded.

RESULTS

We identified 1361 patients who represented a total of 4783 visits to the ED, a mean of 2.8 ± 2.9 visits per patient with 949 (69.7%) who returned for a subsequent ED visit in the subsequent 12 months. Mean time between base and subsequent visits was 136.8 ± 114.2 days. ED visits generated 1462 admissions (63.0% at repeat ED visits); mean length of stay was 9.7 ± 16.0 days. Stroke or transient ischemic attack accounted for 80 return visits and 8 deaths in 77 patients, 74% of whom with subtherapeutic or no anticoagulation medication.

CONCLUSIONS

Presentation to the ED with AF and/or AFL, either as a primary reason for consultation or as a secondary diagnosis, was associated with a high risk of subsequent re-presentation and hospital admission.

Thirty-day mortality in ED patients with new onset atrial fibrillation and actively treated cancer

OBJECTIVES

Studies suggest that inflammatory, autonomic, and coagulation alterations associated with cancer may increase incident atrial fibrillation (AF). New-onset AF is associated with increased mortality in other nonneoplastic disease processes. We investigated the association of active cancer with 30-day mortality in emergency department (ED) patients with new-onset AF.

METHODS

We conducted an analysis within an observational cohort study at a tertiary care hospital that included ED patients with new-onset AF. The exposure variable was presence of active cancer. We defined active cancer as the patient received chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or recent cancer-related surgery within 90 days of the ED visit. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between cancer status and 30-day mortality adjusting for patient age and sex.

RESULTS

During the 5.5-year study period, 420 patients with new-onset AF were included in our cohort, including 37 (8.8%) with active cancer. Patients with active cancer had no clinically relevant differences in their hemodynamic stability. Among the 37 patients with active cancer, 9 (24%) died within 30 days. Of the 383 patients without active cancer, 11 (3%) died within 30 days. After adjusting for age and sex, active cancer was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, with an adjusted odds ratio of 10.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.8-31.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Among ED patients with new-onset AF, active cancer appears to be associated with 11-fold increased odds of 30-day mortality; new-onset AF may represent progressive organ dysfunction leading to an increased risk of short-term mortality in patients with cancer.

Cardiovascular disease rates, outcomes, and quality of care in Ontario Métis: a population-based cohort study

Background

The burden of cardiovascular disease in the Métis, Canada’s fastest growing Aboriginal group, is not well studied. We determined rates of five cardiovascular diseases and associated outcomes in Ontario Métis, compared to the general Ontario population.

Methods

Métis persons were identified using the Métis Nation of Ontario Citizenship Registry. Métis citizens aged 20–105 were linked to Ontario health databases for the period of April 2006 to March 2011. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence and incidence of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), atrial fibrillation, and hypertension were compared between the Métis and the general population. Secondary outcome measures included one-year hospitalizations and mortality following the incident cardiovascular diagnosis, as well as quality-of-care measures.

Results

There were 12,550 eligible Métis persons and 10,144,002 in the general population. The adjusted prevalence of each disease was higher (p<0.05) among the Métis compared to the general population: ACS 5.3% vs. 3.0%; CHF 5.1% vs. 3.9%; stroke 1.4% vs. 1.1%; atrial fibrillation 2.1% vs. 1.4%; hypertension 34.9% vs. 29.8%. Incident ACS, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were also higher (p<0.05) among the Métis: ACS 2.4% vs. 1.5%; stroke 0.8% vs. 0.6%; atrial fibrillation 0.6% vs. 0.3%. One-year all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality were not significantly different. Hospitalizations were higher for Métis persons with CHF (OR 1.93; 95% CI 1.34–2.78) and hypertension (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.88–2.74). Métis with CHF made more emergency department (ED) visits in the year after diagnosis compared to non-Métis with CHF, while Métis aged ≥65 with ACS were more likely to be on beta-blockers following diagnosis.

Conclusions

The burden of cardiovascular disease was markedly higher in the Métis compared to the general population: prevalence rates for five cardiovascular conditions were 25% to 77% higher. Métis persons with CHF had more frequent hospitalizations and ED visits following their diagnosis.

The AFFORD clinical decision aid to identify emergency department patients with atrial fibrillation at low risk for 30-day adverse events

There is wide variation in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED). We aimed to derive and internally validate the first prospective, ED-based clinical decision aid to identify patients with AF at low risk for 30-day adverse events. We performed a prospective cohort study at a university-affiliated tertiary-care ED. Patients were enrolled from June 9, 2010, to February 28, 2013, and followed for 30 days. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients in ED presenting with symptomatic AF. Candidate predictors were based on ED data available in the first 2 hours. The decision aid was derived using model approximation (preconditioning) followed by strong bootstrap internal validation. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of the ED evaluation. Of 497 patients enrolled, stroke and AF-related death occurred in 13 (3%) and 4 (<1%) patients, respectively. The decision aid included the following: age, triage vitals (systolic blood pressure, temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, supplemental oxygen requirement), medical history (heart failure, home sotalol use, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, electrical cardioversion, cardiac ablation, frequency of AF symptoms), and ED data (2 hours heart rate, chest radiograph results, hemoglobin, creatinine, and brain natriuretic peptide). The decision aid's c-statistic in predicting any 30-day adverse event was 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.65, 0.76). In conclusion, in patients with AF in the ED, Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Outcome Risk Determination provides the first evidence-based decision aid for identifying patients who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and candidates for safe discharge.

The Atrial Fibrillation Therapies after ER visit: Outpatient Care for Patients with Acute AF - The AFTER3 Study

BACKGROUND

Visits to the emergency room (ER) for atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) are common, but follow-up care is rarely systematically organized and is often delayed.

PURPOSE

We conducted a pilot program to develop a systematic, protocol-based system of care for patients presenting to the ER with a primary diagnosis of AF.

METHODS

Consecutive patients presenting to the ER with ECG-documented AF at an urban teaching hospital were treated according to a guideline-based care protocol, including a patient toolkit at ER discharge, and systematic referral to a rapid access AF clinic. Consenting patients received questionnaires on AF knowledge, patient satisfaction, and the AFEQT questionnaire at first visit and three-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 321 patients with AF, 244 (76%) were discharged from the ER and 166 (68%) were referred to the AF clinic for urgent follow-up. Among 166 referred, 144 (87%) were seen, within a median 10.5 days (IQR 6-16.5 days); 128 (89%) patients agreed to participate in the study and 81% received a toolkit in the ER. The mean age of patients seen in AF clinic was 63.6±13.2 years and 59% were male. Eighty-seven percent were aware of their diagnosis, stroke risk (82%), possible complications (90%), treatment options (86%) and benefits of adherence (86%). Severity of Atrial Fibrillation class was > 2 in 51% at baseline; AFEQT scores increased from baseline (56.4±25.5) to three months post-ER visit (76.4±20.0), a moderately large improvement in QOL (p<0.0001). Seventy eight percent of patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score > 1 were treated with an oral anticoagulant.

CONCLUSIONS

A systematic program to improve patient transition of care from the ER to community clinic was associated with prompt, guideline-based care, and high levels of patient disease awareness. Quality of life scores improved substantially between the index ER visit and 3 months post-visit.

Factors associated with physician follow-up among patients with chest pain discharged from the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Many patients with chest pain do not receive follow-up from a physician after discharge from the emergency department despite significant survival benefit associated with follow-up care. Our objective was to evaluate factors associated with physician follow-up to understand this gap in practice.

METHODS

We conducted an observational study involving patients at high risk who were assessed for chest pain and discharged from an emergency department in Ontario between April 2004 and March 2010. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association of clinical and nonclinical characteristics with physician follow-up.

RESULTS

We identified 56 767 patients, of whom 25.1% did not receive any follow-up by a physician, 69.0% were seen by their primary care physician, and 17.3% were seen by a cardiologist within 30 days. Patients who had medical comorbidities and cardiac conditions such as myocardial infarction or heart failure were less likely to have follow-up. In contrast, a previous visit to a primary care physician was associated with the highest odds of having physician follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 6.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.91-7.01). Similarly, a previous visit to a cardiologist was strongly associated with follow-up by a cardiologist (OR 3.01, 95% CI 2.85-3.17). Patients evaluated in emergency departments with the highest tertile of chest pain volume were more likely to receive follow-up from any physician (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.31-1.77) and from a cardiologist (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.61-2.57).

INTERPRETATION

Nonclinical factors are strongly associated with physician follow-up for patients with chest pain after discharge from the emergency department. However, patients with comorbidities and at higher risk for future adverse events are less likely to receive follow-up care.

Validation of the Risk Estimator Decision Aid for Atrial Fibrillation (RED-AF) for predicting 30-day adverse events in emergency department patients with atrial fibrillation

STUDY OBJECTIVE

In the United States, nearly 70% of emergency department (ED) visits for atrial fibrillation result in hospitalization. The incidence of serious 30-day adverse events after an ED evaluation for atrial fibrillation remains low. This study's goal was to prospectively validate our previously reported Risk Estimator Decision Aid for Atrial Fibrillation (RED-AF) model for estimating a patient's risk of experiencing a 30-day adverse event.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study, which enrolled a convenience sample of ED patients presenting with atrial fibrillation. RED-AF, previously derived from a retrospective cohort of 832 patients, assigns points according to age, sex, coexisting disease (eg, heart failure, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), smoking, home medications (eg, β-blocker, diuretic), physical examination findings (eg, dyspnea, palpitations, peripheral edema), and adequacy of ED ventricular rate control. Primary outcome was occurrence of greater than or equal to 1 atrial fibrillation-related adverse outcome (ED visits, rehospitalization, cardiovascular complications, death) within 30 days. We identified a clinically relevant threshold and measured RED-AF's performance in this prospective cohort, assessing its calibration, discrimination, and diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 497 patients between June 2010 and February 2013. Of these, 120 (24%) had greater than or equal to 1 adverse event within 30 days. A RED-AF score of 87 was identified as an optimal threshold, resulting in sensitivity and specificity of 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 91% to 98%) and 19% (95% CI 15% to 23%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 27% (95% CI 23% to 32%) and 93% (95% CI 85% to 97%), respectively. The c statistic for RED-AF was 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.71).

CONCLUSION

In this separate validation cohort, RED-AF performed moderately well and similar to the original derivation cohort for identifying the risk of short-term atrial fibrillation-related adverse events in ED patients receiving a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

One-Year Outcomes of Emergency Department Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Prospective, Multicenter Registry in China

There is lack of data about patient characteristics, practice patterns, and long-term adverse outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) attending emergency departments (EDs) in China. A total of 2016 patients from 20 representative EDs were included. During 1 year, all-cause mortality was 291 (14.6%) cases, stroke/noncentral nervous system systemic embolism rate was 159 (8.0%) cases, and major bleeding was 26 (1.3%) cases. Heart failure, the major cause of mortality, accounted for 43.0% of deaths. Of 375 (18.6%) patients who used warfarin at baseline, only 217 (57.9%) patients were still on anticoagulation therapy during 1-year follow-up. Compared with the patients who continued on warfarin, the mortality rate was higher in those who did not continue (15.9% vs 5.5%, P < .001). Patients seen in ED with AF appear to have a high incidence rate of long-term all-cause mortality and inadequate anticoagulation rate.

Identifying future research priorities using value of information analyses: left atrial appendage occlusion devices in atrial fibrillation

Background

Left atrial appendage occlusion devices are cost effective for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation when compared with dabigatran or warfarin. We illustrate the use of value‐of‐information analyses to quantify the degree and consequences of decisional uncertainty and to identify future research priorities.

Methods and Results

A microsimulation decision‐analytic model compared left atrial appendage occlusion devices to dabigatran or warfarin in atrial fibrillation. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis quantified the degree of parameter uncertainty. Expected value of perfect information analyses showed the consequences of this uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information analyses were done on sets of input parameters (cost, utilities, and probabilities) to identify the source of the greatest uncertainty. One‐way sensitivity analyses identified individual parameters for expected value of partial perfect information analyses. Population expected value of perfect information and expected value of partial perfect information provided an upper bound on the cost of future research. Substantial uncertainty was identified, with left atrial appendage occlusion devices being preferred in only 47% of simulations. The expected value of perfect information was $8542 per patient and $227.3 million at a population level. The expected value of partial perfect information for the set of probability parameters represented the most important source of uncertainty, at $6875. Identified in 1‐way sensitivity analyses, the expected value of partial perfect information for the odds ratio for stroke with left atrial appendage occlusion compared with warfarin was calculated at $7312 per patient or $194.5 million at a population level.

Conclusion

The relative efficacy of stroke reduction with left atrial appendage occlusion devices in relation to warfarin is an important source of uncertainty. Improving estimates of this parameter should be the priority for future research in this area.

Predictors of regional variations in hospitalizations following emergency department visits for atrial fibrillation

The emergency department (ED) is often where atrial fibrillation (AF) is first detected and acutely treated and affected patients dispositioned. We used the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample to estimate the percentage of visits resulting in hospitalization and investigate associations between patient and hospital characteristics with hospitalization at the national and regional levels. We conducted a cross-sectional study of adults with AF listed as the primary ED diagnosis in the 2007 to 2009 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses investigating the associations between prespecified patient and hospital characteristics with hospitalization. From 2007 to 2009, there were 1,320,123 weighted ED visits for AF, with 69% hospitalized nationally. Mean regional hospitalization proportions were: Northeast (74%), Midwest (68%), South (74%), and West (57%). The highest odds ratios for predicting hospitalization were heart failure (3.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.66 to 4.02), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.47, 95% CI 2.34 to 2.61), and coronary artery disease (1.65, 95% CI 1.58 to 1.73). After adjusting for age, privately insured (0.77, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) and self-pay (0.77 95% CI 0.66 to 0.90) patients had lower odds compared with Medicare recipients, whereas Medicaid (1.21, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.32) patients tended to have higher odds. Patients living in low-income zip codes (1.18, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.25) and patients treated at large metropolitan hospitals (1.75, 95% CI 1.59 to 1.93) had higher odds. In conclusion, our analysis showed considerable regional variation in the management of patients with AF in the ED and in associations between patient socioeconomic and hospital characteristics with ED disposition; adapting best practices from among these variations in management could reduce hospitalizations and health-care expenses.