Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities

The Impact of Climatological Factors on the Incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombian Municipalities from 2017 to 2019

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus, transmitted by vectors from the Phlebotominae subfamily. The interaction between the vector, reservoir, and parasite is susceptible to climate change. This study explores how temperature and rainfall influenced the incidence of CL in 15 Colombian municipalities between 2017 and 2019. Epidemiological data were obtained from Colombia's Instituto Nacional de Salud, while climatological data came from the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales. Using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, we examined the relationships between monthly climatic variables and the cumulative incidence of CL, considering various lag times. The data were further analyzed using Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS). Our findings reveal both significant positive and negative correlations, depending on locality and climate variables. LOWESS analysis indicates that while rainfall-related incidence remains stable, temperature impacts incidence in a parabolic trend. This study underscores the significant yet complex influence of climatic factors on CL incidence. The insights gained could aid public health efforts by improving predictive models and crafting targeted interventions to mitigate the disease's impact, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate variability.

Identifying gaps on health impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities to climate change on human health and wellbeing in South America: a scoping review

There is an important gap in regional information on climate change and health, limiting the development of science-based climate policies in South American countries. This study aims to identify the main gaps in the existing scientific literature on the impacts, exposure, and vulnerabilities of climate change on population health. A scoping review was performed guided by four sub-questions focused on the impacts of climate change on physical and mental health, exposure and vulnerability factors of population to climate hazards. The main findings showed that physical impacts mainly included infectious diseases, while mental health impacts included trauma, depression, and anxiety. Evidence on population exposure to climate hazards is limited, and social determinants of health and individual factors were identified as vulnerability factors. Overall, evidence on the intersection between climate change and health is limited in South America and has been generated in silos, with limited transdisciplinary research. More formal and systematic information should be generated to inform public policy.

Funding

None.

Arbovirus Transmission Predictions Are Affected by Both Temperature Data Source and Modeling Methodologies across Cities in Colombia

Weather variables has been described as major drivers of vector proliferation and arbovirus transmission. Among them, temperature has consistently been found to be impactful in transmission dynamics, and models that incorporate temperature have been widely used to evaluate and forecast transmission or arboviruses like dengue, zika, or chikungunya virus. Further, there is growing evidence of the importance of micro-environmental temperatures in driving transmission of Aedes aegypti-borne viruses, as these mosquitoes tend to live within domiciles. Yet there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how accounting for micro-environmental temperatures in models varies from the use of other widely-used, macro-level temperature measures. This effort combines field-collected data of both indoor and outdoor household associated temperatures and weather station temperature data from three Colombian cities to describe the relationship between the measures representing temperature at the micro- and macro-levels. These data indicate that weather station data may not accurately capture the temperature profiles of indoor micro-environments. However, using these data sources, the basic reproductive number for arboviruses was calculated by means of three modeling efforts to investigate whether temperature measure differences translated to differential transmission predictions. Across all three cities, it was determined that the modeling method was more often impactful rather than the temperature data-source, though no consistent pattern was immediately clear. This suggests that temperature data sources and modeling methods are important for precision in arbovirus transmission predictions, and more studies are needed to parse out this complex interaction.

How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission

In models of mosquito-borne transmission, the mosquito biting rate is an influential parameter, and understanding the heterogeneity of the process of biting is important, as biting is usually assumed to be relatively homogeneous across individuals, with time-between-bites described by an exponentially distributed process. However, these assumptions have not been addressed through laboratory experimentation. We experimentally investigated the daily biting habits of Ae. aegypti at three temperatures (24°C, 28°C, and 32°C) and determined that there was individual heterogeneity in biting habits (number of bites, timing of bites, etc.). We further explored the consequences of biting heterogeneity using an individual-based model designed to examine whether a particular biting profile determines whether a mosquito is more or less likely to 1) become exposed given a single index case of dengue (DENV) and 2) transmit to a susceptible human individual. Our experimental results indicate that there is heterogeneity among individuals and among temperature treatments. We further show that this results in altered probabilities of transmission of DENV to and from individual mosquitoes based on biting profiles. While current model representation of biting may work under some conditions, it might not uniformly be the best fit for this process. Our data also confirm that biting is a non-monotonic process with temperatures around 28°C being optimum.

Arbovirus infection in Aedes aegypti from different departments of Colombia

The lack of precise and timely knowledge about the molecular epidemiology of arboviruses of public health importance, particularly in the vector, has limited the comprehensive control of arboviruses. In Colombia and the Americas, entomovirological studies are scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the frequency of natural infection and/or co-infection by Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) in Aedes spp. circulating in different departments of Colombia (Amazonas, Boyacá, Magdalena, and Vichada) and identifying vector species by barcoding. Aedes mosquitoes were collected in departments with reported prevalence or incidence of arbovirus cases during 2020–2021, located in different biogeographic zones of the country: Amazonas, Boyacá, Magdalena, and Vichada. The insects were processed individually for RNA extraction, cDNA synthesis, and subsequent detection of DENV (serotypes DENV1-4 by multiplex PCR), CHIKV, and ZIKV (qRT-PCR). The positive mosquitoes for arboviruses were sequenced (Sanger method) using the subunit I of the cytochrome oxidase (COI) gene for species-level identification. In total, 558 Aedes mosquitoes were captured, 28.1% (n = 157) predominantly infected by DENV in all departments. The serotypes with the highest frequency of infection were DENV-1 and DENV-2 with 10.7% (n = 58) and 14.5% (n = 81), respectively. Coinfections between serotypes represented 3.9% (n = 22). CHIKV infection was detected in one individual (0.2%), and ZIKV infections were not detected. All infected samples were identified as A. aegypti (100%). From the COI dataset (593 bp), high levels of haplotype diversity (H = 0.948 ± 0.012) and moderate nucleotide diversity (π = 0.0225 ± 0.003) were identified, suggesting recent population expansions. Constructed phylogenetic analyses showed our COI sequences’ association with lineage I, which was reported widespread and related to a West African conspecific. We conclude that natural infection in A. aegypti by arbovirus might reflect the country’s epidemiological behavior, with a higher incidence of serotypes DENV-1 and DENV-2, which may be associated with high seroprevalence and asymptomatic infections in humans. This study demonstrates the high susceptibility of this species to arbovirus infection and confirms that A. aegypti is the main vector in Colombia. The importance of including entomovirological surveillance strategy within public health systems to understand transmission dynamics and the potential risk to the population is highlighted herein.

Host immune response against DENV and ZIKV infections

Dengue is a major public health concern, affecting almost 400 million people worldwide, with about 70% of the global burden of disease in Asia. Despite revised clinical classifications of dengue infections by the World Health Organization, the wide spectrum of the manifestations of dengue illness continues to pose challenges in diagnosis and patient management for clinicians. When the Zika epidemic spread through the American continent and then later to Africa and Asia in 2015, researchers compared the characteristics of the Zika infection to Dengue, considering both these viruses were transmitted primarily through the same vector, the Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes. An important difference to note, however, was that the Zika epidemic diffused in a shorter time span compared to the persisting feature of Dengue infections, which is endemic in many Asian countries. As the pathogenesis of viral illnesses is affected by host immune responses, various immune modulators have been proposed as biomarkers to predict the risk of the disease progression to a severe form, at a much earlier stage of the illness. However, the findings for most biomarkers are highly discrepant between studies. Meanwhile, the cross-reactivity of CD8+ and CD4+ T cells response to Dengue and Zika viruses provide important clues for further development of potential treatments. This review discusses similarities between Dengue and Zika infections, comparing their disease transmissions and vectors involved, and both the innate and adaptive immune responses in these infections. Consideration of the genetic identity of both the Dengue and Zika flaviviruses as well as the cross-reactivity of relevant T cells along with the actions of CD4+ cytotoxic cells in these infections are also presented. Finally, a summary of the immune biomarkers that have been reported for dengue and Zika viral infections are discussed which may be useful indicators for future anti-viral targets or predictors for disease severity. Together, this information appraises the current understanding of both Zika and Dengue infections, providing insights for future vaccine design approaches against both viruses.

Differential Hatching, Development, Oviposition, and Longevity Patterns among Colombian Aedes aegypti Populations

Simple Summary

Aedes aegypti is a mosquito that transmits viruses responsible for several diseases in humans, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. It is crucial to study mosquito populations from different countries and regions because control of disease transmission with insecticides can be more effective if adjusted to each population’s characteristics. For this reason, we determined several features of mosquitoes captured in different cities of Colombia: Neiva, Bello, Itagüí, and Riohacha. These included the length of their lifespan, the number of eggs they lay, and the stages in which they die. We found specific patterns for each population. This knowledge will help control programs determine the optimal times to apply insecticides and make surveillance, as well as the type of insecticide used.

Abstract

Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are arboviral diseases for which there are no effective therapies or vaccines. The only way to avoid their transmission is by controlling the vector Aedes aegypti, but insecticide resistance limits this strategy. To generate relevant information for surveillance and control mechanisms, we determined life cycle parameters, including longevity, fecundity, and mortality, of Colombian Ae. aegypti populations from four different geographical regions: Neiva, Bello, Itagüí, and Riohacha. When reared at 28 °C, Bello had the shortest development time, and Riohacha had the longest. Each mosquito population had its own characteristic fecundity pattern during four gonotrophic cycles. The survival curves of each population were significantly different, with Riohacha having the longest survival in both males and females and Bello the shortest. High mortality was observed in mosquitoes from Neiva in the egg stage and for Bello in the pupae stage. Finally, when mosquitoes from Neiva and Bello were reared at 35 °C, development times and mortality were severely affected. In conclusion, each population has a unique development pattern with an innate trace in their biological characteristics that confers vulnerability in specific stages of development.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize the association of monthly series of dengue cases with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables in Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different temporal and spatial scales. For estimation purposes, we use lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross-wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary, given the reduction of DENV cases since 2005, and that local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one region to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Overall, the Pacific and Andes regions control the relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale. Cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Malaria occurrence in the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh varies by season and year, but this pattern is not well characterized. The role of environmental conditions on the occurrence of this vector-borne parasitic disease in the region is not fully understood. We extracted information on malaria patients recorded in the Upazila (sub-district) Health Complex patient registers of Rajasthali in Rangamati district of Bangladesh from February 2000 to November 2009. Weather data for the study area and period were obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Non-linear and delayed effects of meteorological drivers, including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on the incidence of malaria, were investigated. We observed significant positive association between temperature and rainfall and malaria occurrence, revealing two peaks at 19 °C (logarithms of relative risks (logRR) = 4.3, 95% CI: 1.1-7.5) and 24.5 °C (logRR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8-7.6) for temperature and at 86 mm (logRR = 19.5, 95% CI: 11.7-27.3) and 284 mm (logRR = 17.6, 95% CI: 9.9-25.2) for rainfall. In sub-group analysis, women were at a much higher risk of developing malaria at increased temperatures. People over 50 years and children under 15 years were more susceptible to malaria at increased rainfall. The observed associations have policy implications. Further research is needed to expand these findings and direct resources to the vulnerable populations for malaria prevention and control in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh and the region with similar settings.

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa

Malaria is a long-standing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) such as dengue and chikungunya cause an under-recognised burden of disease. Many human and environmental drivers affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this Personal View, we argue that the direct effects of warming temperatures are likely to promote greater environmental suitability for dengue and other arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti and reduce suitability for malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae. Environmentally driven changes in disease dynamics will be complex and multifaceted, but given that current public efforts are targeted to malaria control, we highlight Ae aegypti and dengue, chikungunya, and other arboviruses as potential emerging public health threats in sub-Saharan Africa.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Forecasting dengue fever in Brazil: An assessment of climate conditions

Local climate conditions play a major role in the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the main vector responsible for transmitting dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever in urban centers. For this reason, a detailed assessment of periods in which changes in climate conditions affect the number of human cases may improve the timing of vector-control efforts. In this work, we develop new machine-learning algorithms to analyze climate time series and their connection to the occurrence of dengue epidemic years for seven Brazilian state capitals. Our method explores the impact of two key variables-frequency of precipitation and average temperature-during a wide range of time windows in the annual cycle. Our results indicate that each Brazilian state capital considered has its own climate signatures that correlate with the overall number of human dengue-cases. However, for most of the studied cities, the winter preceding an epidemic year shows a strong predictive power. Understanding such climate contributions to the vector's biology could lead to more accurate prediction models and early warning systems.

Do we know how mosquito disease vectors will respond to climate change?

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes’ ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.

Estimation of DENV-2 Transmission as a Function of Site-Specific Entomological Parameters from Three Cities in Colombia

Background:

Measuring dengue virus transmission in endemic areas is a difficult task as many variables drive transmission, and often are not independent of one another.

Objectives:

We aimed to determine the utility of vectorial capacity to explain the observed dengue infection rates in three hyperendemic cities in Colombia, and tested hypotheses related to three variables: mosquito density, effective vector competence, and biting rate.

Methods:

We estimated two of the most influential entomological variables related to cumulative vectorial capacity, which is a modification of the traditional vectorial capacity equation, of three Colombian mosquito populations. Laboratory studies were undertaken to measure vector competence and man biting rate of local mosquito populations. In addition, the assessment of cumulative vectorial capacity also incorporated site-specific estimations of mosquito density and the probability of daily survival from previous studies conducted in those cities.

Findings:

We found that the biting rates and mosquito infection rates differed among populations of mosquitoes from these three cities, resulting in differences in the site-specific measures of transmission potential. Specifically, we found that using site-specific entomological measures to populate the cumulative vectorial capacity equation was best at recapitulating observed mosquito infection rates when mosquito density was discounted compared to when we incorporated site-specific density measures.

Conclusions:

Specific mosquito-biting rate is likely sufficient to explain transmission differences in these three cities, confirming that this parameter is a critical parameter when predicting and assessing dengue transmission in three Colombian cities with different field observed transmission patterns.

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

Mosquitoes cannot control their body temperature, so their survival and performance depend on the temperature where they live. As a result, outside temperatures can also affect the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. This has left scientists wondering how climate change may affect the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Predicting the effects of climate change on such diseases is tricky, because many interacting factors, including temperatures and rainfall, affect mosquito populations. Also, rising temperatures do not always have a positive effect on mosquitoes – they may help mosquitoes initially, but it can get too warm even for these animals.

Climate change could affect the Ross River virus, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The virus infects 2,000 to 9,000 people each year and can cause long-term joint pain and disability. Currently, the virus spreads year-round in tropical, northern Australia and seasonally in temperate, southern Australia. Large outbreaks have occurred outside of Australia, and scientists are worried it could spread worldwide.

Now, Shocket et al. have built a model that predicts how the spread of Ross River virus changes with temperature. Shocket et al. used data from laboratory experiments that measured mosquito and virus performance across a broad range of temperatures. The experiments showed that ~26°C (80°F) is the optimal temperature for mosquitoes to spread the Ross River virus. Temperatures below 17°C (63°F) and above 32°C (89°F) hamper the spread of the virus. These temperature ranges match the current disease patterns in Australia where human cases peak in March. This is two months after the country’s average temperature reaches the optimal level and about how long it takes mosquito populations to grow, infect people, and for symptoms to develop.

Because northern Australia is already near the optimal temperature for mosquitos to spread the Ross River virus, any climate warming should decrease transmission there. But warming temperatures could increase the disease’s transmission in the southern part of the country, where most people live. The model Shocket et al. created may help the Australian government and mosquito control agencies better plan for the future.