Body weight at age 20 and in midlife is more important than weight gain for coronary atherosclerosis: Results from SCAPIS

Self-Report Tool for Identification of Individuals With Coronary Atherosclerosis: The Swedish CardioPulmonary BioImage Study

BACKGROUND

Coronary atherosclerosis detected by imaging is a marker of elevated cardiovascular risk. However, imaging involves large resources and exposure to radiation. The aim was, therefore, to test whether nonimaging data, specifically data that can be self-reported, could be used to identify individuals with moderate to severe coronary atherosclerosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the population-based SCAPIS (Swedish CardioPulmonary BioImage Study) in individuals with coronary computed tomography angiography (n=25 182) and coronary artery calcification score (n=28 701), aged 50 to 64 years without previous ischemic heart disease. We developed a risk prediction tool using variables that could be assessed from home (self-report tool). For comparison, we also developed a tool using variables from laboratory tests, physical examinations, and self-report (clinical tool) and evaluated both models using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, external validation, and benchmarked against factors in the pooled cohort equation. The self-report tool (n=14 variables) and the clinical tool (n=23 variables) showed high-to-excellent discriminative ability to identify a segment involvement score ≥4 (area under the curve 0.79 and 0.80, respectively) and significantly better than the pooled cohort equation (area under the curve 0.76, P<0.001). The tools showed a larger net benefit in clinical decision-making at relevant threshold probabilities. The self-report tool identified 65% of all individuals with a segment involvement score ≥4 in the top 30% of the highest-risk individuals. Tools developed for coronary artery calcification score ≥100 performed similarly.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a self-report tool that effectively identifies individuals with moderate to severe coronary atherosclerosis. The self-report tool may serve as prescreening tool toward a cost-effective computed tomography-based screening program for high-risk individuals.

Birth Weight, Childhood and Young Adult Overweight, and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Men

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight is a known risk factor for adult coronary heart disease (CHD), but the additional effect of weight development during childhood and early adult life has not been studied.

METHODS

We included 35 659 men born 1945 to 1961 from the population-based BMI Epidemiology Study Gothenburg, with data available on birthweight, BMI in childhood (8 years), and BMI in young adulthood (20 years). Information on CHD diagnoses was retrieved from national registers. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the risk of early and late CHD (before and after 58.4 years of age, respectively).

RESULTS

During follow-up, a total of 3380 cases of CHD (fatal and nonfatal) were registered. Birth weight was inversely associated with the risk of both early (hazard ratio, 0.88 per SD increase [95% CI, 0.84-0.92]) and late (hazard ratio, 0.94 per SD increase [95% CI, 0.90-0.98]) CHD, independently of BMI at 8 years and BMI change during puberty. In a model including birth weight (below or above the median) together with overweight at 8 and 20 years, only birth weight and young adult overweight, but not overweight in childhood, were significantly associated with the risk of CHD. A birth weight below the median, followed by overweight at 20 years of age was associated with a more than doubled risk of early CHD (hazard ratio, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.86-2.81]), compared with the reference (birth weight above the median and normal weight at 20 years of age). This excess risk was even more pronounced for a birthweight below 2.5 kg.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that low birth weight and young adult overweight are important developmental markers of risk for adult CHD. These findings motivate a life course perspective for prevention and risk assessment of adult CHD.