Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery

Application of machine learning to predict in-hospital mortality after transcatheter mitral valve repair

INTRODUCTION

Transcatheter mitral valve repair offers a minimally invasive treatment option for patients at high risk for traditional open repair. We sought to develop dynamic machine-learning risk prediction models for in-hospital mortality after transcatheter mitral valve repair using a national cohort.

METHODS

All adult hospitalization records involving transcatheter mitral valve repair were identified in the 2016-2020 Nationwide Readmissions Database. As a result of initial class imbalance, undersampling of the majority class and subsequent oversampling of the minority class using Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique were employed in each cross-validation training fold. Machine-learning models were trained to predict patient mortality after transcatheter mitral valve repair and compared with traditional logistic regression. Shapley additive explanations plots were also developed to understand the relative impact of each feature used for training.

RESULTS

Among 2,450 patients included for analysis, the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.8%. Naïve Bayes and random forest models were the best at predicting transcatheter mitral valve repair postoperative mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 ± 0.05 and 0.82 ± 0.04, respectively. Both models demonstrated superior ability to predict mortality relative to logistic regression (P < .001 for both). Medicare insurance coverage, comorbid liver disease, congestive heart failure, renal failure, and previous coronary artery bypass grafting were associated with greater predicted likelihood of in-hospital mortality, whereas elective surgery and private insurance coverage were linked with lower odds of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Machine-learning models significantly outperformed traditional regression methods in predicting in-hospital mortality after transcatheter mitral valve repair. Furthermore, we identified key patient factors and comorbidities linked with greater postoperative mortality. Future work and clinical validation are warranted to continue improving risk assessment in transcatheter mitral valve repair .

The impact of comorbidities on outcomes of concomitant mitral valve intervention with ascending aortic surgery

INTRODUCTION

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is widely utilized for risk stratification for non-cardiac surgical patients, yet it has not been broadly validated in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess its ability to predict early and late outcomes of concomitant mitral valve intervention with ascending aortic surgery.

METHODS

Patients who underwent surgery between 1997 and 2022 were reviewed. Age-adjusted CCI scores were calculated based on clinical status at a time of index operation. The primary endpoint was all causes mortality while secondary outcomes were major adverse events (MAE) that included combined perioperative mortality, dialysis, myocardial infarction, and stroke in addition to the individual outcomes and take back for bleeding and tracheostomy. Chi-square test, Logistic and Cox regression analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used. Maximally selected rank statistics were used to identify best cutoff of CCI for late mortality.

RESULTS

186 patients (median age 65 [interquartile range (IQR): 54-76] and 69% males) were included with a median CCI of 4 [IQR: 3-6]. Five and ten-years overall survival were 95.9% and 67.1% vs 59.7%, and 19.9% in CCI ≤ 5 vs >5 (P < 0.001). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher CCI (HR 1.60 [1.17;2.18], P = 0.00), and lower EF (HR 0.89 [0.83;0.96], P = 0.002) were associated with late mortality. There was a trend to lower mortality in recent surgery years (HR 0.91 [0.83;1.01], P = 0.070)). Perioperative MAE was higher in CCI >5 (11.0% vs 2.1%, P = 0.017), and postoperative need for tracheostomy and CVA had a trend to be higher in CCI > 5 (P = 0.055). Logistic regression revealed that higher CCI, as a continuous variable, was associated with significantly higher odds of MAE, postoperative dialysis, and need for tracheostomy.

CONCLUSIONS

The CCI can be a helpful tool in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing concomitant mitral valve intervention with ascending aortic surgery.

Perioperative management of constrictive pericarditis with cardiac cirrhosis: A case report

INTRODUCTION

The interactions between the heart and liver have been known for a long time, pericarditis constrictive could cause congestive hepatopathy via right-sided heart failure. Liver cirrhosis correlates with a high risk of mortality so perioperative management greatly influences outcomes.

CASE PRESENTATION

An Indonesian man, 50 years old, complained of breath shortness. The patient had a history of pulmonary tuberculosis and was declared cured 30 years ago. The patient began experiencing fatigue 14 years ago, and the patient was diagnosed with constrictive pericarditis 5 years ago. Currently, the patient has an increased jugular venous pressure of 9 cmH2O and abnormal laboratory indicators, including a platelet count of 121,000/μL, albumin count of 3.41 g/L, direct bilirubin count of 0.7 mg/dL, total bilirubin count of 1.4 mg/dL, and INR of 1.4. Echocardiography revealed left ventricle hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, and right ventricle failure. Cardiac CT scan showed pericardial calcification. Abdominal ultrasound showed liver congestive and splenomegaly. Transient elastography showed severe fibrosis in liver and stiffness in spleen. The patient underwent pericardiectomy with CTP score of 6 and MELD of 12. The surgery was successful, and the complaint was reduced. The patient experienced an improvement in his condition and able to carry out activities well after 2 years post-surgery.

DISCUSSION

The patient has no contraindications to pericardiectomy, CTP class A (5-6) and MELD score <13.5 has a low risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

CTP and MELD scores predict life expectancy in post-surgery cardiac cirrhosis patients.

The Impact of Silent Liver Disease on Hospital Length of Stay Following Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery

Objectives: Risk assessment models for cardiac surgery do not distinguish between degrees of liver dysfunction. We have previously shown that preoperative liver stiffness is associated with hospital length of stay following cardiac surgery. The authors hypothesized that a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 9.5 kPa would rule out a short hospital length of stay (LOS < 6 days) following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. Methods: A prospective observational study of one hundred sixty-four adult patients undergoing non-emergent isolated CABG surgery at a single university hospital center. Preoperative liver stiffness measured by ultrasound elastography was obtained for each participant. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the adjusted relationship between LSM and a short hospital stay. Results: We performed multivariate logistic regression models using short hospital LOS (<6 days) as the dependent variable. Independent variables included LSM (< 9.5 kPa, ≥ 9.5 kPa), age, sex, STS predicted morbidity and mortality, and baseline hemoglobin. After adjusting for included variables, LSM ≥ 9.5 kPa was associated with lower odds of early discharge as compared to LSM < 9.5 kPa (OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.06-0.84, p = 0.03). The ROC curve and resulting AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.68-0.83) suggest the final multivariate model provides good discriminatory performance when predicting early discharge. Conclusions: A preoperative LSM ≥ 9.5 kPa ruled out a short length of stay in nearly 80% of patients when compared to patients with a LSM < 9.5 kPa. Preoperative liver stiffness may be a useful metric to incorporate into preoperative risk stratification.

Off-Pump Reduces Risk of Coronary Bypass Grafting in Patients with High MELD-XI Score

BACKGROUND

 This study aimed to assess the influence of the model of end-stage liver disease without International Normalized Ratio (INR) (MELD-XI) score on outcomes after elective coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) without (Off-Pump) or with (On-Pump) cardiopulmonary bypass.

METHODS

 We calculated MELD-XI (5.11 × ln serum bilirubin + 11.76 × ln serum creatinine in + 9.44) for 3,535 consecutive patients having undergone elective CABG between 2009 and 2020. A MELD-XI threshold was determined using the Youden Index based on receiver operating characteristics. Propensity score matching and logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors for inhospital mortality and Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Event (MACCE).

RESULTS

 Patients were 68 ± 10 years old (76% male). Average MELD-XI was 10.9 ± 3.25. The MELD-XI threshold was 11. Patients below this threshold had somewhat lower EuroSCORE II than those above (3.5 ± 4 vs. 4.1 ± 4.7, p < 0.01), but mortality was almost four times higher above the threshold (below 1.5% vs. above 6.2%, p < 0.001). Two-thirds of patients received Off-Pump CABG. There was a trend towards higher risk in Off-Pump patients. Mortality was numerically but not statistically different to On-Pump below the MELD XI threshold (1.3 vs. 2.2%, p = 0.34) and was significantly lower above the threshold (4.9 vs. 8.9%, p < 0.02). Off-Pump above the threshold was also associated with less low-output syndrome and fewer strokes. Equalizing baseline differences by propensity matching verified the significant mortality difference above the threshold. Multivariable regression analysis revealed MELD-XI, On-Pump, atrial fibrillation, and the De Ritis quotient (Aspartate aminotransferase (ASAT)/Alanine Aminotransferase (ALAT)) as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

 Elective CABG patients with elevated MELD-XI scores are at increased risk for perioperative mortality and morbidity. This risk can be significantly mitigated by performing CABG Off-Pump.

MELD score predicts short-term outcomes after surgical management of proximal humerus fractures: a matched analysis

Objective

We aimed to evaluate the difference in 30-day outcomes after surgical management of proximal humerus fractures (PHFs) between patients with and without chronic liver disease as defined by a MELD score greater than 10.

Design

This was a retrospective database review.

Setting

All centers participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were included.

Patients/Participants

Patients with proximal humerus fractures who (1) underwent ORIF, HA, or SA and (2) had calculable MELD scores were included.

Intervention

Open reduction and internal fixation, hemiarthroplasty, or shoulder arthroplasty was used for treatment.

Main outcome measurements

Thirty-day complications, mortality, readmission, and reoperation rates were measured.

Results

Of the total 1732 PHF patients identified, 300 had a MELD score higher than 10. After propensity matching by significant covariates, MELD score higher than 10 was found to be significantly associated with higher rates of 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, transfusion within 72 hours, and systemic complications. Among patients with a MELD score higher than 10, treatment with SA or HA instead of ORIF was associated with a higher rate of transfusion and longer operative time. There were no significant differences between treatment cohorts regarding mortality, reoperation, readmission, or complications.

Conclusions

A MELD score higher than 10 is associated with higher risk of surgical complications, transfusion, and death in patients undergoing surgery for proximal humerus fractures. Among patients with a MELD score higher than 10, ORIF was associated with a lower transfusion rate and shorter operative time than arthroplasty or hemiarthroplasty.

Level of Evidence

Prognostic Level III.

Risk stratification for isolated tricuspid valve surgery assisted using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score

OBJECTIVE

Isolated tricuspid valve surgery is perceived as high-risk. This perception is nurtured by patients who often present with substantial liver dysfunction, which is inappropriately reflected in current surgical risk scores (eg, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons [STS] score has no specific tricuspid model). The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has was developed as a measure for the severity of liver dysfunction. We report scores and outcomes for our patient population.

METHODS

We calculated STS, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II (ESII), and MELD scores for all of our patients who received isolated tricuspid valve surgery between 2011 and 2020 (n = 157). We determined the MELD score, stratified patients into 3 groups (MELD <10: low, n = 53; 10 to <20: intermediate, n = 78; ≥20: high, n = 26) and describe associated outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients were 72 ± 10 years old and 43% were male. Mean STS score was 4.9 ± 3.5% and ESII was 7.2 ± 6.6%. Mortality was 8.9% at 30 days and 65% at latest follow-up (95% CI, 51%-76%). Median follow-up was 4.4 years (range, 0-9.7 years). Although ESII and STS score accurately predicted 30-day mortality at low MELD scores (observed to expected [O/E] for ESII score = 0.8 and O/E for STS score = 1.0) and intermediate MELD (O/E for ESII score = 0.7, O/E for STS score = 1.0), mortality was underestimated at high MELD (O/E for ESII score = 3.0, O/E for STS score = 4.7). This subgroup also had higher incidence of new-onset hemodialysis. Besides MELD category, recent congestive heart failure, endocarditis, and hemodialysis were also associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

For isolated tricuspid valve regurgitation, classic surgical risk stratification with STS or ESII scores failed to predict perioperative mortality if there was evidence of severe liver dysfunction. Preoperative MELD assessment might be useful to assist in proper risk assessment for isolated tricuspid valve surgery.

Association of liver dysfunction with outcomes after cardiac surgery-a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of studies reporting outcomes in patients with liver dysfunction addressed by the model of end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores undergoing cardiac surgery.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify contemporary studies reporting short- and long-term outcomes in patients with liver dysfunction compared to patients with no or mild liver dysfunction undergoing cardiac surgery (stratified in high and low score group based on the study cut-offs). Primary outcome was perioperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were perioperative neurological events, prolonged ventilation, sepsis, bleeding and/or need for transfusion, acute kidney injury and long-term mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies with 48 891 patients were included. Compared with the low score group, being in the high score group was associated with significantly higher risk of perioperative mortality [odds ratio (OR) 3.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.75-5.03, P < 0.001]. High score group was also associated with a significantly higher rate of perioperative neurological events (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.30-1.71, P < 0.001), prolonged ventilation (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.94-3.09, P < 0.001), sepsis (OR 3.88, 95% CI 2.07-7.26, P < 0.001), bleeding and/or need for transfusion (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.43-2.64, P < 0.001), acute kidney injury (OR 3.84, 95% CI 2.12-6.98, P < 0.001) and long-term mortality (incidence risk ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.14-1.46, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis suggests that liver dysfunction in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is independently associated with higher risk of short and long-term mortality and also with an increased occurrence of various perioperative adverse events.

The importance of liver function assessment before cardiac surgery: A narrative review

The demand for cardiac surgery procedures is increasing globally. Thanks to an improvement in survival driven by medical advances, patients with liver disease undergo cardiac surgery more often. Liver disease is associated with the development of heart failure, especially in patients with advanced cirrhosis. Cardiovascular risk factors can also contribute to the development of both cardiomyopathy and liver disease and heart failure itself can worsen liver function. Despite the risk that liver disease and cirrhosis represent for the perioperative management of patients who undergo cardiac surgery, liver function is often not included in common risk scores for preoperative evaluation. These patients have worse short and long-term survival when compared with other cardiac surgery populations. Preoperative evaluation of liver function, postoperative management and close postoperative follow-up are crucial for avoiding complications and improving results. In the present narrative review, we discuss the pathophysiological components related with postoperative complications and mortality in patients with liver disease who undergo cardiac surgery and provide recommendations for the perioperative management.

Determinants and Prognostic Implications of Hepatorenal Dysfunction in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the prognostic role of hepatorenal function indices in ambulatory patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence, risk factors, and prognostic implications of hepatorenal dysfunction, as measured by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalised Ratio (MELD-XI) score, in adults with CHD.

METHODS

In this retrospective study of CHD patients with comprehensive metabolic panels (2003-2019), mild/moderate and severe hepatorenal dysfunction was defined as MELD-XI 11-15 and > 15, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 4977 patients, 1376 (28%) had hepatorenal dysfunction (mild/moderate: n = 935 [19%]; severe: n = 441 [9%]). Hepatorenal dysfunction was most common in Fontan/unrepaired single ventricle (46%) and right heart disease (31%). Baseline MELD-XI was associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.27, CI 1.21-1.33; P < 0.001) after adjustment for age, sex, and congenital heart lesion. In 3864 patients with serial MELD-XI data, there was a temporal increase in MELD-XI, and this was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.24, CI 1.15-1.36, per unit increase in MELD-XI; P = 0.004), independently from the baseline MELD-XI score. In the subset of 1856 patients that underwent surgical/transcatheter interventions, there was a postoperative reduction in MELD-XI, and this was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR 0.94, CI 0.90-0.98, per unit decrease in MELD-XI; P = 0.008), independently from the baseline MELD-XI score.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatorenal dysfunction was common in adults with CHD. Both baseline MELD-XI score and temporal changes in MELD-XI were associated with clinical outcomes, and therefore could be used to monitor therapeutic response to interventions and for deterioration in clinical status.

Improvement in hepatic and renal function following isolated heart transplant in adults with congenital heart disease

BACKGROUND

There are limited data about postoperative changes in hepatic and renal function in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) undergoing isolated heart transplant. The purpose of this study was to assess postoperative changes in hepatic and renal function in this population.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of adults with CHD undergoing isolated heart transplant at Mayo Clinic (2003-2019). Global hepatic function was assessed using the model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio [MELD-XI]) score; hepatic fibrosis was assessed using the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score and aspartate/platelet ratio index (APRI); and renal function was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). All indices were measured preoperatively and postoperatively (at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years).

RESULTS

Of 40 patients (age 41 ± 8 years) in the study, 35 had complete preoperative and postoperative data. There was a temporal improvement in hepatic and renal indices from preop (MELD-XI 14 ± 5, APRI 0.60 ± 0.23, FIB-4 1.44 ± 0.38, GFR 59 [44-83]) to 6 months postop (MELD-XI 12 ± 6, APRI 0.49 ± 0.17, FIB-4 1.29 ± 0.33, GFR 68 [54-96]) and 1-year postop (MELD-XI 9 ± 3, APRI 0.41 ± 0.16, FIB-4 1.12 ± 0.29, GFR 82 [69-108]), p < 0.05 for all comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

CHD patients undergoing isolated heart transplant had significant improvement in hepatic and renal function. These data suggests that selected CHD patients may do well with isolated heart transplant despite reduced hepatic and renal function, and hepatic fibrosis preoperatively. More rigorous prospective studies are required to determine the relative outcomes of isolated versus combined heart-liver transplant in this population.

Hepatorenal dysfunction predicts operative mortality after triple valve surgery: Utility of MELD-Na

BACKGROUND

Despite significant advancements in operative techniques and myocardial protection, triple valve surgery (TVS) remains a formidable operation with a relatively high in-hospital mortality. We evaluated the prognostic value of Model for End-stage Liver Disease score including sodium (MELD-Na) for mortality after TVS and its predictive value when incorporated in the EuroSCORE risk model.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 61 consecutive patients who underwent TVS from November 2005 to June 2016. Demographics, clinical, biochemical, and operative data were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Median follow-up duration was 8.0 years. The majority (70.5%) of patients suffered from rheumatic heart disease and underwent mechanical double valve replacement with tricuspid valve repair. There were six operative deaths (9.84%), with the most common cause of death being multiorgan failure (83.3%). In 26.2% of the cohort, the MELD-Na score was moderately elevated at 9 to 15. A small fraction (4.9%) had a severely elevated MELD-Na greater than 15. Patients with a MELD-Na greater than 9 had a higher unadjusted rate of operative mortality, prolonged ventilation, need for dialysis and acute liver failure after TVS. Hierarchical logistic regression was performed using logistic EuroSCORE as the base model. After risk adjustment, each point of MELD-Na score increase was associated with 1.405 times increase in odds of operative mortality. The regression analysis was repeated by incorporating individual components of the MELD-Na score, including bilirubin, sodium, and albumin. All three biochemical parameters were significantly associated with operative mortality CONCLUSION: MELD-Na score as a quantifier of hepatorenal dysfunction is sensitive and specific for operative mortality after triple valve surgery.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Predicts the Mortality of Patients with Coronary Heart Disease Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is caused by the blockage or spasm of coronary arteries. Evidence shows that liver disease is related to CHD. However, the correlation between the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and outcomes in patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was unclear.

Method

A retrospective cohort study involved 5373 patients with coronary heart disease after PCI was conducted from January 2008 to December 2016. Participants were classified to four groups according to the MELD score by quartiles. The primary endpoint was long-term mortality including all-case mortality (ACM) and cardiac mortality (CM). Secondary endpoints included bleeding events, readmission, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), major adverse cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). The longest follow-up time was almost 10 years.

Results

There were significant differences in the incidences of ACM (p=0.038) and CM (p=0.027) among the four MELD groups, but there was no significant difference in MACEs (p=0.496), MACCEs (p=0.234), readmission (p=0.684), and bleeding events (p=0.232). After adjusting the age, gender, smoking, drinking status, and diabetes by a multivariable Cox regression analysis, MELD remains independently associated with ACM (HR:1.57, 95%CI 1.052–2.354, p=0.027) and CM (HR:1.434, 95% CI 1.003–2.050, p=0.048).

Conclusion

This study indicated that the MELD score had a strong prediction for long-term mortality in CHD patients who underwent PCI.

Prognostic value of the modified model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score including albumin in acute heart failure

Background

Liver and renal function evaluated by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, the MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (MELD_XI) score and the MELD including sodium (MELD_sodium) score have been considered predictors of adverse events for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the prognostic value of the MELD including albumin (MELD_albumin) score in patients with AHF has not been assessed.

Methods

A total of 466 patients with AHF were prospectively evaluated. We compared the accuracy of the 4 MELD score formulas using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and corresponding areas under the curve (AUC).

Results

During a median follow-up period of 34 months, 196 deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted Cox regression model, standardized hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval expressing the risk of all-cause mortality were 1.22 (1.06–1.40), 1.20 (1.04–1.39), 1.23 (1.06–1.42) and 1.21 (1.05–1.41) for MELD, MELD_XI, MELD_sodium and MELD_albumin scores, respectively. The MELD_albumin score showed the best prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.658) for the prediction of long-term all-cause mortality, followed by the MELD_sodium score (AUC = 0.590), the MELD score (AUC = 0.580), and the MELD_XI score (AUC = 0.544); the MELD_albumin score performs significantly more accurate than MELD and MELD_XI score for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality. Considering reclassification, MELD_albumin score increased the net reclassification improvement over and beyond MELD (13.1%, P = 0.003), MELD_XI (14.8%, P = 0.002), and MELD_sodium (11.9%, P = 0.006) scores for all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

The MELD_albumin score increases risk stratification of all-cause mortality over and beyond the MELD score and the other modified MELD scores in patients with acute heart failure.

MELD and MELD XI Scores as Predictors of Mortality After Pericardiectomy for Constrictive Pericarditis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between the preoperative model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-XI (exclude international normalized ratio) score and outcomes in patients undergoing pericardiectomy for constrictive pericarditis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients >18 years of age undergoing pericardiectomy for constrictive pericarditis between January 1, 2007, and October 12, 2017, were analyzed with data for MELD and MELD-XI score calculation within 30 days preoperatively. The association between the MELD and MELD-XI scoring systems and risk of postoperative outcomes was assessed in regression models adjusting for relevant covariates. The primary outcome was operative mortality (death within 90 days or in hospital). Secondary outcomes included various measures of postoperative morbidity.

RESULTS

A total of 175 and 226 patients had data for MELD/MELD-XI, respectively. Ninety-day mortality was 8.7%. When stratified into tertiles of MELD-XI, the unadjusted risk of 90-day mortality was 2.7%, 8.2%, and 16.0%, respectively. In Cox regression models fitted for MELD-XI and MELD, higher scores associated with increased risk of mortality (P<.001 for both). In secondary multivariable analyses, both MELD-XI and MELD were associated with increased incidence of renal failure and greater levels of chest-tube output and transfusion, whereas MELD-XI was additionally associated with prolonged intubation and extended intensive care unit and hospital stays.

CONCLUSION

Among patients undergoing pericardiectomy for constrictive pericarditis, MELD-XI and MELD were associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although the simpler MELD-XI score generally performed as well or better than MELD as a correlate of various outcomes, both scores can serve as a simple yet robust risk stratification tool for patients undergoing pericardiectomy for constrictive pericarditis.

Predicting Operative Outcomes in Patients with Liver Disease: Albumin-Bilirubin Score vs Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Score

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI) has recently been shown to have increased accuracy in predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure and mortality compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). However, the use of ALBI as a predictor of postoperative mortality for other surgical procedures has not been analyzed. The aim of this study was to measure the predictive power of ALBI compared with MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) across a wide range of surgical procedures.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients undergoing cardiac, pulmonary, esophageal, gastric, gallbladder, pancreatic, splenic, appendix, colorectal, adrenal, renal, hernia, and aortic operations were identified in the 2015-2018 American College of Surgeons NSQIP database. Patients with missing laboratory data were excluded. Univariable analysis and receiver operator characteristic curves were performed for 30-day mortality and morbidity. Areas under the curves were calculated to validate and compare the predictive abilities of ALBI and MELD-Na.

RESULTS

Of 258,658 patients, the distribution of ALBI grades 1, 2, 3 were 51%, 42%, and 7%, respectively. Median MELD-Na was 7.50 (interquartile range 6.43 to 9.43). Overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% and overall morbidity was 28.6%. Increasing ALBI grade was significantly associated with mortality (ALBI grade 2: odds ratio [OR] 5.24; p < 0.001; ALBI grade 3: OR 25.6; p < 0.001) and morbidity (ALBI grade 2: OR 2.15; p < 0.001; ALBI grade 3: OR 6.12; p < 0.001). On receiver operator characteristic analysis, ALBI outperformed MELD-Na with increased accuracy in several operations.

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI score predicts mortality and morbidity across a wide spectrum of surgical procedures. When compared with MELD-Na, ALBI more accurately predicts outcomes in patients undergoing pulmonary, elective colorectal, and adrenal operations.

Association between high dose catecholamine support and liver dysfunction following cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Cardiac surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass is a well-established procedure. However, up to 20% to 30% of patients require high dose vasopressor or inotropic support following surgery, enhancing the risk of organ dysfunction and impacting mortality. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a frequent finding in these patients and may be involved in the pathophysiology of vasoplegia and cardiac failure.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 463 patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery in 2014 at our institution. NAFLD was defined using the NAFLD fibrosis score and the vasoactive-inotropy score was used to determine postoperative vasopressor and inotropic dependency.

RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD more often presented with high vasopressor or inotropic support compared to patients without NAFLD, resulting in significant differences after 6 hours (n = 20 [27.0%] of 74 patients), 12 hours (n = 20 [27.0%] of 74 patients), and on the first postoperative day (n = 12 [16.4%] of 73 patients) of intensive care unit (ICU) treatment. Multivariate analysis revealed time of catecholamine application (P = .001), preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (P = .001), type of surgery (P = .001), model of endstage liver disease on hospital admission (P = .002), pre-existing pulmonary hypertension (P = .004) and NAFLD-time interaction (P = .05) as independent predictors of high vasopressor and inotropic support. Patients with NAFLD had higher degrees of extrahepatic organ dysfunction, were more dependent on hemodialysis, spent more days in the ICU and within the hospital. Patients with NAFLD and high catecholamine support had the highest mortality rates among the study population.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is a common finding in elective cardiac surgery patients. Anesthesiologists and intensivists should be sensitive for the specific risk profile of this population.