Chronotropic incompetence and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery: planned secondary analysis of a prospective observational international cohort study

Cystatin C or creatinine for pre-operative assessment of kidney function and risk of post-operative acute kidney injury: a secondary analysis of the METS cohort study

Background

Post-operative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) is a common surgical complication consistently associated with subsequent morbidity and mortality. Prior kidney dysfunction is a major risk factor for PO-AKI, however it is unclear whether serum creatinine, the conventional kidney function marker, is optimal in this population. Serum cystatin C is a kidney function marker less affected by body composition and might provide better prognostic information in surgical patients.

Methods

This was a pre-defined, secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective cohort study of pre-operative functional capacity. Participants were aged ≥40 years, undergoing non-cardiac surgery. We assessed the association of pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated using both serum creatinine and serum cystatin C with PO-AKI within 3 days after surgery, defined by KDIGO creatinine changes. The adjusted analysis accounted for established AKI risk factors.

Results

A total of 1347 participants were included (median age 65 years, interquartile range 56-71), of whom 775 (58%) were male. A total of 82/1347 (6%) patients developed PO-AKI. These patients were older, had higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and related medication, were more likely to have intra-abdominal procedures, had more intraoperative transfusion, and were more likely to be dead at 1 year after surgery 6/82 (7.3%) vs 33/1265 (2.7%) (P = .038). Pre-operative eGFR was lower in AKI than non-AKI patients using both creatinine and cystatin C. When both measurements were considered in a single age- and sex-adjusted model, eGFR-Cysc was strongly associated with PO-AKI, with increasing risk of AKI as eGFR-Cysc decreased below 90, while eGFR-Cr was no longer significantly associated.

Conclusions

Data from over 1000 prospectively recruited surgical patients confirms pre-operative kidney function as major risk factor for PO-AKI. Of the kidney function markers available, compared with creatinine, cystatin C had greater strength of association with PO-AKI and merits further assessment in pre-operative assessment of surgical risk.

Long-term disease interactions amongst surgical patients: a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

The average age of the surgical population continues to increase, as does prevalence of long-term diseases. However, outcomes amongst multi-morbid surgical patients are not well described.

METHODS

We included adults undergoing non-obstetric surgical procedures in the English National Health Service between January 2010 and December 2015. Patients could be included multiple times in sequential 90-day procedure spells. Multi-morbidity was defined as presence of two or more long-term diseases identified using a modified Charlson comorbidity index. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative death. Secondary outcomes included emergency hospital readmission within 90 days. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression. We compared the outcomes associated with different disease combinations.

RESULTS

We identified 20 193 659 procedure spells among 13 062 715 individuals aged 57 (standard deviation 19) yr. Multi-morbidity was present among 2 577 049 (12.8%) spells with 195 965 deaths (7.6%), compared with 17 616 610 (88.2%) spells without multi-morbidity with 163 529 deaths (0.9%). Multi-morbidity was present in 1 902 859/16 946 808 (11.2%) elective spells, with 57 663 deaths (2.7%, OR 4.9 [95% CI: 4.9-4.9]), and 674 190/3 246 851 (20.7%) non-elective spells, with 138 302 deaths (20.5%, OR 3.0 [95% CI: 3.0-3.1]). Emergency readmission followed 547 399 (22.0%) spells with multi-morbidity compared with 1 255 526 (7.2%) without. Multi-morbid patients accounted for 57 663/114 783 (50.2%) deaths after elective spells, and 138 302/244 711 (56.5%) after non-elective spells. The rate of death varied five-fold from lowest to highest risk disease pairs.

CONCLUSION

One in eight patients undergoing surgery have multi-morbidity, accounting for more than half of all postoperative deaths. Disease interactions amongst multi-morbid patients is an important determinant of patient outcome.

Heart rate response and recovery during exercise predict future delirium risk-A prospective cohort study in middle- to older-aged adults

BACKGROUND

Delirium is a neurocognitive disorder characterized by an abrupt decline in attention, awareness, and cognition after surgical/illness-induced stressors on the brain. There is now an increasing focus on how cardiovascular health interacts with neurocognitive disorders given their overlapping risk factors and links to subsequent dementia and mortality. One common indicator for cardiovascular health is the heart rate response/recovery (HRR) to exercise, but how this relates to future delirium is unknown.

METHODS

Electrocardiogram data were examined in 38,740 middle- to older-aged UK Biobank participants (mean age = 58.1 years, range: 40-72 years; 47.3% males) who completed a standardized submaximal exercise stress test (15-s baseline, 6-min exercise, and 1-min recovery) and required hospitalization during follow-up. An HRR index was derived as the product of the heart rate (HR) responses during exercise (peak/resting HRs) and recovery (peak/recovery HRs) and categorized into low/average/high groups as the bottom quartile/middle 2 quartiles/top quartile, respectively. Associations between 3 HRR groups and new-onset delirium were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models and a 2-year landmark analysis to minimize reverse causation. Sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors/physical activity, cardiovascular risk, comorbidities, cognition, and maximal workload achieved were included as covariates.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 11 years, 348 participants (9/1000) newly developed delirium. Compared with the high HRR group (16/1000), the risk for delirium was almost doubled in those with low HRR (hazard ratio = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.30-2.79, p = 0.001) and average HRR (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95%CI: 1.07-2.22, p = 0.020)). Low HRR was equivalent to being 6 years older, a current smoker, or ≥3 additional cardiovascular disease risks. Results were robust in sensitivity analysis, but the risk appeared larger in those with better cognition and when only postoperative delirium was considered (n = 147; hazard ratio = 2.66, 95%CI: 1.46-4.85, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

HRR during submaximal exercise is associated with future risk for delirium. Given that HRR is potentially modifiable, it may prove useful for neurological risk stratification alongside traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Long-term mortality following complications after elective surgery: a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Complications after surgery affect survival and quality of life. We aimed to confirm the relationship between postoperative complications and death within 1 yr after surgery.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies of patients undergoing surgery in five high-income countries between 2012 and 2014. Exposure was any complication within 30 days after surgery. Primary outcome was death within 1 yr after surgery, ascertained by direct follow-up or linkage to national registers. We adjusted for clinically important covariates using a mixed-effect multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. We conducted a planned subgroup analysis by type of complication. Data are presented as mean with standard deviation (sd), n (%), and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The pooled cohort included 10 132 patients. After excluding 399 (3.9%) patients with missing data or incomplete follow-up, 9733 patients were analysed. The mean age was 59 [sd 16.8] yr, and 5362 (55.1%) were female. Of 9733 patients, 1841 (18.9%) had complications within 30 days after surgery, and 319 (3.3%) died within 1 yr after surgery. Of 1841 patients with complications, 138 (7.5%) died within 1 yr after surgery compared with 181 (2.3%) of 7892 patients without complications (aHR 1.94 [95% CI: 1.53-2.46]). Respiratory failure was associated with the highest risk of death, resulting in six deaths amongst 28 patients (21.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative complications are associated with increased mortality at 1 yr. Further research is needed to identify patients at risk of complications and to reduce mortality.

Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS

BACKGROUND

Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged ≥18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death ≥2 and report associated 2-yr survival.

RESULTS

We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without.

CONCLUSION

One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).

Chronotropic incompetence could negatively influence post-operative risk assessment in patients before lung cancer surgery

Background

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a standard part of preoperative evaluation in patients before lung surgical resection. According to current guidelines the risk of such a procedure is estimated according to maximum oxygen consumption (VO₂max). Chronotropic incompetence (CI) is a prevalent condition which could possibly influence cardiopulmonary fitness. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of CI in patients before surgical lung resections and its influence on CPET results.

Methods

This study enrolled 154 patients (97 men) of average age 66.4±8.3 with newly diagnosed lung cancer indicated for surgical lung resections. All patients underwent CPET (cycle ergometry). Age predicted maximal HR was calculated using the traditional equation (220 – age). Three levels of CI were defined as, 85% HR_pred, 80% HR_pred and 70% HR_pred. The influence of CI on CPET results was evaluated.

Results

CI was present in the following ratios: 85% HR_pred—48.7%; 80% HR_pred—39.6% and 70% HR_pred—16.9%. A significant negative correlation was also found between VO₂max, maximal heart rate (HR) and maximal work load among all CI groups (P<0.0001). The presence of CI significantly correlated with beta-blocker treatment (P<0.0001).

Conclusions

CI significantly decreases VO₂max in patients before lung cancer surgery. It is strongly associated with beta-blocker treatment which could negatively influence risk assessment. It is thus a matter for future discussion, as to whether the evaluation of CI should be part of preoperative care guidelines.

Can routine perioperative haemodynamic parameters predict postoperative morbidity after major surgery?

Background

Postoperative morbidity occurs in 10–15% of patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. Predicting patients at higher risk of morbidity may help to optimize perioperative prevention. Preoperative haemodynamic parameters, systolic arterial pressure (SAP) < 100 mmHg, pulse pressure (PP) > 62 mmHg or < 53 mmHg, and heart rate (HR) > 87 min^-1 are associated with increased postoperative morbidity. We evaluated the correlation between these and other routine haemodynamic parameters, measured intraoperatively, with postoperative morbidity. Postoperative morbidity was measured using the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and length of stay (LOS). Additionally we correlated CCI with the cardiac risk biomarker, preoperative NT-ProBNP.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of patients in MET-REPAIR, a European observational study correlating self-reported physical activity with postoperative morbidity. Patients’ electronic anaesthetic records (EARs) including perioperative haemodynamic data were correlated with 30-day postoperative morbidity, CCI and LOS parameters. Statistical analysis to assess for correlation was by Kendall’s Correlation Coefficient for tied ranks (Tau-B) or Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient. Blood for N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurement was collected < 31 days before surgery.

Results

Data from n = 50 patients were analysed. When stratified according to age > 70 years and ASA > 3, the duration of MAP < 100 mmHg, < 75 mmHg or < 55 mmHg were associated with a higher CCI (tau = 0.57, p = 0.001) and duration < 75 mmHg was associated with prolonged LOS (tau = 0.39, p = 0.02). The intraoperative duration of PP > 62 mmHg was associated with LOS (tau = 0.317, p = 0.007). There was no correlation between preoperative NT-proBNP and either CCI or LOS.

Conclusions

In older and higher risk patients, duration of intraoperative hypotension by a variety of definitions, or PP > 62 mmHg, are associated with increased postoperative CCI and LOS. These findings warrant confirmation in larger databases with evaluation of whether real-time intraoperative intervention could reduce postoperative morbidity.

Performance of cardiopulmonary exercise testing for the prediction of post-operative complications in non cardiopulmonary surgery: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is widely used within the United Kingdom for preoperative risk stratification. Despite this, CPET's performance in predicting adverse events has not been systematically evaluated within the framework of classifier performance.

METHODS

After prospective registration on PROSPERO (CRD42018095508) we systematically identified studies where CPET was used to aid in the prognostication of mortality, cardiorespiratory complications, and unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission in individuals undergoing non-cardiopulmonary surgery. For all included studies we extracted or calculated measures of predictive performance whilst identifying and critiquing predictive models encompassing CPET derived variables.

RESULTS

We identified 36 studies for qualitative review, from 27 of which measures of classifier performance could be calculated. We found studies to be highly heterogeneous in methodology and quality with high potential for bias and confounding. We found seven studies that presented risk prediction models for outcomes of interest. Of these, only four studies outlined a clear process of model development; assessment of discrimination and calibration were performed in only two and only one study undertook internal validation. No scores were externally validated. Systematically identified and calculated measures of test performance for CPET demonstrated mixed performance. Data was most complete for anaerobic threshold (AT) based predictions: calculated sensitivities ranged from 20-100% when used for predicting risk of mortality with high negative predictive values (96-100%). In contrast, positive predictive value (PPV) was poor (2.9-42.1%). PPV appeared to be generally higher for cardiorespiratory complications, with similar sensitivities. Similar patterns were seen for the association of Peak VO2 (sensitivity 85.7-100%, PPV 2.7-5.9%) and VE/VCO2 (Sensitivity 27.8%-100%, PPV 3.4-7.1%) with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In general CPET's 'rule-out' capability appears better than its ability to 'rule-in' complications. Poor PPV may reflect the frequency of complications in studied populations. Our calculated estimates of classifier performance suggest the need for a balanced interpretation of the pros and cons of CPET guided pre-operative risk stratification.

Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing for Preoperative Evaluation: What Does the Future Hold?

Purpose of Review

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) informs the preoperative evaluation process by providing individualised risk profiles; guiding shared decision-making, comorbidity optimisation and preoperative exercise training; and informing perioperative patient management. This review summarises evidence on the role of CPET in preoperative evaluation and explores the role of novel and emerging CPET variables and alternative testing protocols that may improve the precision of preoperative evaluation in the future.

Recent Findings

CPET provides a wealth of physiological data, and to date, much of this is underutilised clinically. For example, impaired chronotropic responses during and after CPET are simple to measure and in recent studies are predictive of both cardiac and noncardiac morbidity following surgery but are rarely reported. Exercise interventions are increasingly being used preoperatively, and endurance time derived from a high intensity constant work rate test should be considered as the most sensitive method of evaluating the response to training. Further research is required to identify the clinically meaningful difference in endurance time. Measuring efficiency may have utility, but this requires exploration in prospective studies.

Summary

Further work is needed to define contemporaneous risk thresholds, to explore the role of other CPET variables in risk prediction, to better characterise CPET’s role in combination with other tools in multifactorial risk stratification and increasingly to evaluate CPET’s utility for preoperative exercise prescription in prehabilitation.