Hospitalization rates, length of stay and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of HIV infected patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Supervised machine learning algorithms to predict the duration and risk of long-term hospitalization in HIV-infected individuals: a retrospective study

Objective

The study aimed to use supervised machine learning models to predict the length and risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWHs to help physicians timely clinical intervention and avoid waste of health resources.

Methods

Regression models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, and XGB to predict the length of hospital stay using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2, while classification models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, NN, and XGB to predict risk of prolonged hospital stay using accuracy, PPV, NPV, specificity, sensitivity, and kappa, and visualization evaluation based on AUROC, AUPRC, calibration curves and decision curves of all models were used for internally validation.

Results

In regression models, XGB model performed best in the internal validation (RMSE = 16.81, MAE = 10.39, MAPE = 0.98, R2 = 0.47) to predict the length of hospital stay, while in classification models, NN model presented good fitting and stable features and performed best in testing sets, with excellent accuracy (0.7623), PPV (0.7853), NPV (0.7092), sensitivity (0.8754), specificity (0.5882), and kappa (0.4672), and further visualization evaluation indicated that the largest AUROC (0.9779), AUPRC (0.773) and well-performed calibration curve and decision curve in the internal validation.

Conclusion

This study showed that XGB model was effective in predicting the length of hospital stay, while NN model was effective in predicting the risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWH. Based on predictive models, an intelligent medical prediction system may be developed to effectively predict the length of stay and risk of HIV patients according to their medical records, which helped reduce the waste of healthcare resources.

Risk factors associated with 30-day hospital readmissions among persons living with HIV in Nantong, China

OBJECTIVE

To estimate 30-day hospital readmission rates among persons living with HIV (PLWH) at the Nantong Infectious Disease Hospital in China and analyse the related risk factors.

METHODS

A single-centre retrospective cohort study was conducted. There were 894 PLWH records obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR) system at the Nantong Infectious Disease Hospital in China, from October 2013 to February 2018. The 30-day readmission rates were calculated, and the risk factors were analysed by generalised estimating equations (GEEs).

RESULTS

A total of 1153 hospitalizations from 894 patients were recorded between October 2013 and February 2018. The median time of 30-day readmissions was 13 days (interquartile range (IQR), 6-23). The reasons for all causes, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses (ADIs), and non-AIDS-defining infections (non-ADIs) were 9.08, 13.52, and 7.91%, respectively. The results from the GEE analysis demonstrated that the risk factors associated with 30-days readmissions were as follows: no antiretroviral therapy (ART) prior to hospitalisations (odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21-3.00), low CD4 counts (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.33-3.54), and multiple comorbidities (OR = 6.45, 95% CI: 1.62-25.73).

CONCLUSION

Early detection of HIV infection and early initiation of ART treatment are the keys to controlling 30-day readmissions.

Mortality in hospitalized HIV-infected patients in a referral center in Bahia, Brazil

The number of people living with HIV / AIDS in the world has increased and, in Salvador, Brazil, the mortality rate is above the state and national rates. This study sought to describe the characteristics of HIV patients who died in a referral hospital. This is a retrospective cohort study between 2012 and 2017 conducted at the, Federal University of Bahia´s Hospital, involving patients who died during hospitalization. There were 62 deaths among the 461 hospitalized patients with a predominance of males, blacks, and residents of Salvador. Mean age was 41.4 years. Most patients had at least one associated infection and 13% had a malignant neoplasm. The main reported cause of death was septic shock / HIV-associated infections. About 6.4% had an undetectable viral load and in-hospital survival was longer in this group. The lowest in-hospital survival was seen in patients presenting with pneumonia. Although the HIV / AIDS mortality rate at this center reflects the complexity of the country's epidemiological scenario poor adherence and therapeutic failure play a key role in the risk of death.

Thirty-day readmission rates in a cohort of people living with HIV in southern Brazil, 2015 to 2017

BACKGROUND

The intense use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced morbidity and mortality of HIV infection. In Brazil, the specific contribution of diseases related to HIV infection leading to hospital admission and readmission is not well known.

AIMS

The study aimed to determine the clinico-epidemiological profile, 30-day readmission rate, and factors associated with this outcome in a cohort of adults with HIV infection in southern Brazil.

METHODS

Unicentric retrospective cohort, with data collection through the review of medical records and databases.

RESULTS

We analyzed 574 index hospitalizations and 451 individuals. Of these, 57.6% were men and the mean (±SD) age was 42.2 ± 12.3 years. Only 43.4% used ART regularly and low CD4 count and high frequency of detectable viral load were observed. HIV/AIDS-related diseases were identified in 55.2%, and tuberculosis was the most frequent etiology leading to index hospitalization. We found a 30-day readmission rate of 11.5% and hospitalization for HIV/AIDS-related illness was associated with a higher risk for the outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the need to expand resources for prevention, early diagnosis, retention, and treatment of people living with HIV in the region to reduce HIV/AIDS-associated diseases and possibly minimize consequent hospital readmission of these individuals.

A 10-year economic analysis of HIV management in Greece: evidence of efficient resource allocation

OBJECTIVE

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence has substantially increased over the years, leading to increased direct medical costs. The aim of the present study was to assess the long-term cost of HIV care in Greece incurred over the last decade.

METHODS

In order to assess the long-term cost of HIV care, a cost analysis was undertaken for three discrete time points (which reflect major changes in the HIV treatment paradigm), incorporating the evolution of the cost of pharmaceuticals, hospitalization, primary care visits and diagnostic tests. The cost per life year gained (LYG) was also estimated.

RESULTS

Total cost of HIV care increased by 57% over the last decade (€53.7 million in 2010 vs €84.5 million in 2019), which can be mainly attributed to a 107% (5084 in 2010 vs. 10,523 in 2019) increase observed in the number of people living with HIV (PLWH) under care. As a result, the cost per person on treatment has decreased by 24.0% (€10,567 in 2010 vs €8032 in 2019). Lifetime cost was lower and life expectancy higher in 2019 compared to 2010, leading to a - €711 cost per LYG, suggesting that the current treatment paradigm produces better health outcomes at a lower cost compared to a decade ago, implying that resources are used in a more efficient way.

CONCLUSION

The paper presents some evidence towards the direction that HIV management in Greece can be considered efficient in both clinical and financial terms, as it offers measurable clinical outcomes at well-controlled, almost inelastic spending.

Death-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients undergoing hemodialysis in an intensive care unit

HIV-infected patients are at high risk for developing critical diseases, including opportunistic infections (OI), with consequent admission in intensive care units (ICU). Renal disfunctions are risk factors for death in HIV/AIDS patients, and survival rates in patients undergoing hemodialysis are smaller than the ones observed in the general population. In this context, this study aimed to investigate death-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients in an intensive care setting. This is a retrospective cross-sectional study performed through the analysis of medical records from 271 HIV/AIDS-diagnosed patients hospitalized in an intensive care unit of an infectious disease hospital, in Fortaleza, Ceara State, Brazil. Patients were divided into two groups: those who underwent dialysis during hospitalization and those who did not. Clinical and demographic parameters that could be associated with death were evaluated. Results indicated a prevalence of death of 19.1% (CI 95%: 14.8-24.3). The median age of patients was 47 years, with a male predominance (71.3%). The main causes of admission were pulmonary tuberculosis (16.9%), followed by neurotoxoplasmosis (14.9%). In the bivariate analysis, for those that did not undergo dialysis, age, fever, dyspnea, oliguria, disorientation, kidney injury, use of lamivudine and efavirenz, length of hospitalization, CD4 count, WBC count, platelet count, urea, sodium and LDH levels were the associated variables. In those who needed dialysis, the use of stavudine, abacavir and ritonavir, and the length of hospitalization were associated factors. Renal toxicity by the antiretroviral agents and length of hospitalization increased the risk of death among HIV patients under dialysis.

Statistical models for analyzing count data: predictors of length of stay among HIV patients in Portugal using a multilevel model

BACKGROUND

This study offers a comprehensive approach to precisely analyze the complexly distributed length of stay among HIV admissions in Portugal.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an illustration of statistical techniques for analysing count data using longitudinal predictors of length of stay among HIV hospitalizations in Portugal.

METHOD

Registered discharges in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) facilities Between January 2009 and December 2017, a total of 26,505 classified under Major Diagnostic Category (MDC) created for patients with HIV infection, with HIV/AIDS as a main or secondary cause of admission, were used to predict length of stay among HIV hospitalizations in Portugal. Several strategies were applied to select the best count fit model that includes the Poisson regression model, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial regression model, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. A random hospital effects term has been incorporated into the negative binomial model to examine the dependence between observations within the same hospital. A multivariable analysis has been performed to assess the effect of covariates on length of stay.

RESULTS

The median length of stay in our study was 11 days (interquartile range: 6-22). Statistical comparisons among the count models revealed that the random-effects negative binomial models provided the best fit with observed data. Admissions among males or admissions associated with TB infection, pneumocystis, cytomegalovirus, candidiasis, toxoplasmosis, or mycobacterium disease exhibit a highly significant increase in length of stay. Perfect trends were observed in which a higher number of diagnoses or procedures lead to significantly higher length of stay. The random-effects term included in our model and refers to unexplained factors specific to each hospital revealed obvious differences in quality among the hospitals included in our study.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive approach to address unique problems associated with the prediction of length of stay among HIV patients in Portugal.

Predictors of prolonged hospital stay in HIV-positive patients presenting to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Prolonged hospitalization places a significant burden on healthcare resources. Compared to the general population, hospital length of stay (LOS) is generally longer in HIV-positive patients. We identified predictors of prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) in HIV-positive patients presenting to an emergency department (ED).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, HIV-positive patients presenting to the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital adult ED were prospectively enrolled between 07 July 2017 and 18 October 2018. Data was subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine parameters associated with a higher likelihood of prolonged hospital LOS, defined as ≥7 days.

RESULTS

Among the 1224 participants that were enrolled, the median (IQR) LOS was 4.6 (2.6-8.2) days, while the mean (SD) LOS was 6.9 (8.2) days. On multivariate analysis of the data, hemoglobin <11 g/dL (OR 1.37, p = 0.032), Glasgow coma scale (GCS) <15 (OR 1.80, p = 0.001), creatinine >120 μmol/L (OR 1.85, p = 0.000), cryptococcal meningitis (OR 2.45, p = 0.015) and bacterial meningitis (OR 4.83, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of LOS ≥7 days, while bacterial pneumonia (OR 0.35, p = 0.000) and acute gastroenteritis (OR 0.40, p = 0.025) were significantly associated with a lower likelihood of LOS ≥7 days.

CONCLUSION

Various clinical and laboratory parameters are useful in predicting prolonged hospitalization among HIV-positive patients presenting to the ED. These parameters may be useful in guiding clinical decision making and directing the allocation of resources.

Tuberculosis, COVID-19 and hospital admission: Consensus on pros and cons based on a review of the evidence

The scientific debate on the criteria guiding hospitalization of tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 patients is ongoing. The aim of this review is to present the available evidence on admission for TB and TB/COVID-19 patients and discuss the criteria guiding hospitalization. Furthermore, recommendations are made as derived from recently published World Health Organization documents, based on Global Tuberculosis Network (GTN) expert opinion. The core published documents and guidelines on the topic have been reviewed. The proportion of new TB cases admitted to hospital ranges between 50% and 100% while for multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB patients it ranges between 85 and 100% globally. For TB patients with COVID-19 the proportion of cases admitted is 58%, probably reflecting different scenarios related to the diagnosis of COVID-19 before, after or at the same time of the active TB episode. The hospital length of stay for drug-susceptible TB ranges from 20 to 60 days in most of countries, ranging from a mean of 10 days (USA) to around 90 days in the Russian Federation. Hospitalization is longer for MDR-TB (50-180 days). The most frequently stated reasons for recommending hospital admission include: severe TB, infection control concerns, co-morbidities and drug adverse events which cannot be managed at out-patient level. The review also provides suggestions on hospital requirements for safe admissions as well as patient discharge criteria, while underlining the relevance of patient-centred care through community/home-based care.

Trends of hospitalisations rates in a cohort of HIV-infected persons followed in an Italian hospital from 1998 to 2016

Here we evaluated hospitalisation rates and associated risk factors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals who were followed up in an Italian reference hospital from 1998 to 2016. Incidence rates (IR) of hospitalisations were calculated for five study periods from 1998 to 2016. The random-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess risk factors for hospitalisation including demographic and clinical characteristics. To consider that more events may occur for the same subject, multiple failure-time data analysis was also performed for selected causes using the Cox proportional hazards model. We evaluated 2031 patients. During 13 173 person-years (py) of follow-up, 3356 hospital admissions were carried out for 756 patients (IR: 255 per 1000 py). IR decreased significantly over the study period, from 634 in 1998–2000 to 126 per 1000 py in 2013–2016. Major declines were detected for AIDS-defining events, non-HIV/AIDS-related infections and neurological diseases. Older age, female sex, longer HIV duration and HCV coinfection were associated with a higher hospitalisation risk, whereas higher CD4 nadir and antiretroviral therapy were associated with a reduced risk. Influence of advanced HIV disease markers declined over time. Hospitalisation rates decreased during the study period in most causes. The relative weight of hospitalisations for non-AIDS-related tumours, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases increased during the study period, whereas those for AIDS-defining events declined.

Etiology, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics of severe respiratory infection in people living with HIV

People living with HIV (PLWH) are more prone to severe respiratory infections. We used the severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) definition to describe the etiology, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics in this population. This was a prospective observational study including PLWH hospitalized with fever and cough. Those with symptom onset up to 10 days were classified as severe acute respiratory infection and 11–30 days as non-severe acute respiratory infection. Blood, urine samples and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected. Data were extracted from patient charts during their hospital stay. Forty-nine patients were included, median CD4 cell count: 80 cells/mm³, median time since HIV diagnosis and hospital admission: 84 months and 80% were antiretroviral therapy exposed. Twenty-seven patients were classified as SARI. Etiology was identified in 69%, 47% were polymicrobial. Respiratory virus (9 SARI vs. 13 non-SARI), bacteria (5 SARI vs. 4 non-SARI), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (6 SARI group vs. 7 non-SARI group), Pneumocystis jirovecii (4 SARI vs. 1 non-SARI), Cryptococcus neoformans (1 SARI vs. 3 non-SARI), and influenza A (1 SARI vs. 2 non-SARI). Dyspnea was statistically more prevalent in SARI (78% vs. 36%, p = 0.011) but the risk of death was higher in the non-SARI (4% vs. 36%, p = 0.0067). In the severely immunocompromised PLWH, severe acute respiratory infection can be caused by multiple pathogens and codetection is a common feature.

Clinical outcome of admitted HIV/AIDS patients in Ethiopian tertiary care settings: A prospective cohort study

Background

Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) related illnesses are the leading cause of death in the developing world. However; there is limited evidence regarding the incidence of mortality among admitted HIV patients in Ethiopia.

Objective

To determine the incidence of mortality and its predictors among admitted HIV/AIDS patients in selected tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia.

Methods

A prospective cohort study involving 136 admitted HIV/AIDS patients from April 1 to August 31, 2018 was conducted in selected tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia. Data were collected on socio-demographic, clinical characteristics, and drug related variables. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were used to compare survival experience of the patients and identify independent predictors of mortality. Hazard ratio was used as a measure of strength of association and p-value of <0.05 was considered to declare statistical significance.

Results

Of 136 patients, 80 (58.8%) were females. The overall in-hospital incidence of mortality was 2.83 per 1000 person-years. The incidences of mortality due to AIDS and non-AIDS related admissions were 6.1 [3.95, 8.67] and 5.3 [3.35, 8.23] per 1000 person-years respectively. The mean ± SD survival times among patients with AIDS and non-AIDS related illnesses were 32 ± 3.1 and 34 ± 3.3 days respectively (log rank p = 0.599). Being on non-invasive ventilation (AHR: 2.99, 95%CI; [1.24, 7.28]; p = 0.015) and having baseline body mass index (BMI) of less than 18.5 (AHR: 2.6, 95%CI; [1.03, 6.45]; p = 0.04) were independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

The study found high incidence of in-hospital mortality among admitted HIV/AIDS patients in Ethiopian tertiary care hospitals. Being on non-invasive ventilation and body mass index (BMI) of less than 18.5 were found to be independent predictors of mortality.

Hospitalization of HIV positive patients in a referral tertiary care hospital in Antananarivo Madagascar, 2010-2016: Trends, causes and outcome

BACKGROUND

During the last few years, significant efforts have been made to improve access to antiretroviral therapy which led to dramatic reduction in AIDS-related events and mortality in HIV positive patients at the global level. However, current data in Africa suggested modest impact of widespread antiretroviral therapy scale-up especially regarding HIV-related hospitalization. In this study, we aimed to describe causes of hospitalization and factors associated with AIDS-defining events and inpatient mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on medical records of HIV positive patients admitted for at least 24 hours in the Infectious Diseases Unit of the University Hospital Joseph Raseta Befelatanana Antananarivo. Cause of hospitalization was considered as the main diagnosis related to the symptoms at admission. Diagnostic criteria were based on criteria described in WHO guidelines. AIDS-defining events were defined as diseases corresponding to WHO stage 4 or category C of CDC classification.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2016, 236 hospital admissions were included. AIDS-defining events were the most frequent cause of hospitalization (61.9%) with an increasing trend during the study period. Tuberculosis (28.4%), pneumocystis pneumonia (11.4%), cerebral toxoplasmosis (7.2%) and cryptococcosis (5.5%) were the most frequent AIDS-defining events. Tuberculosis was also the most frequent cause of overall hospitalization. In multivariate analysis, recent HIV diagnosis (aOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0-3.9), CD4<200 cells/μl (aOR = 4.0, 95%CI: 1.9-8.1), persistent fever (aOR = 4.4, 95%CI: 2.1-9.0), duration of symptoms≥ 6 weeks (aOR = 2.6, 95%CI: 1.2-5.4) were associated with AIDS-defining events. Overall inpatient mortality was 19.5%. Age≥55 years (aOR = 4.9, 95%CI: 1.5-16.6), neurological signs (aOR = 3.2, 95%CI: 1.5-6.9) and AIDS-defining events (aOR = 2.9, 95%CI: 1.2--7.2) were associated with inpatient mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

AIDS-defining events were the most frequent cause of hospitalization during the study period. Factors associated with AIDS-defining events mostly reflected delay in HIV diagnosis. Factors associated with mortality were advanced age, neurological signs and AIDS-defining events.

Thirty-day Readmission Rates in an HIV-infected Cohort From Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

BACKGROUND

The 30-day readmission rate is an indicator of the quality of hospital care and transition to the outpatient setting. Recent studies suggest HIV infection might increase the risk of readmission although estimates of 30-day readmission rates are unavailable among HIV-infected individuals living in middle/low-income settings. Additionally, factors that may increase readmission risk in HIV-infected populations are poorly understood.

METHODS

Thirty-day readmission rates were estimated for HIV-infected adults from the Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas/Fiocruz cohort in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from January 2007 to December 2013. Cox regression models were used to evaluate factors associated with the risk of 30-day readmission.

RESULTS

Between January 2007 and December 2013, 3991 patients were followed and 1861 hospitalizations were observed. The estimated 30-day readmission rate was 14% (95% confidence interval: 12.3 to 15.9). Attending a medical visit within 30 days after discharge (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.73, P = 0.048) and being hospitalized in more recent calendar years (aHR = 0.89, P = 0.002) reduced the risk of 30-day readmission. In contrast, low CD4 counts (51-200 cells/mm³: aHR = 1.70, P = 0.024 and ≤ 50 cells/mm³: aHR = 2.05, P = 0.003), time since HIV infection diagnosis ≥10 years (aHR = 1.58, P = 0.058), and leaving hospital against medical advice (aHR = 2.67, P = 0.004) increased the risk of 30-day readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with advanced HIV/AIDS are most at risk of readmission and should be targeted with prevention strategies to reduce this risk. Efforts to reduce discharge against medical advice and to promote early postdischarge medical visit would likely reduce 30-day readmission rates in our population.