Survival after recurrence of stage I-III breast, colorectal, or lung cancer

Impact of colorectal cancer screening on survival after metachronous metastasis

BACKGROUND

An increasing proportion of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in Europe are detected by screening with faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). Previous studies showed that population screening with FIT leads to a decrease in CRC incidence and to detection at an earlier stage. However, approximately twenty percent of patients with CRC without metastases at initial diagnosis still develop metachronous metastases. We investigated the association between detection mode of the primary tumor and overall survival (OS) after metachronous metastasis in patients with CRC.

METHODS

Nationwide registry-based data was obtained of 794 patients who developed metachronous metastases after being diagnosed with stage I-III CRC between January and June 2015. With multivariable Cox PH regression modelling, we analyzed the (causal) association between detection mode of the primary tumor (FIT screen-detected versus non-screen-detected) and OS after metachronous metastasis while adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Median OS and five-year OS after metachronous metastasis were significantly higher for patients with screen-detected (n = 152) vs. non-screen-detected primary tumors (n = 642): 38.3 vs. 19.2 months, and 35.4% vs. 18.8%, respectively, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounders, the association between detection mode and OS after metachronous metastasis remained significant (HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.56-0.89]).

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-detection of the primary tumor was independently associated with longer OS after metachronous metastasis. This may support the clinical utility of the population screening program and it shows the prognostic value of detection mode of the primary tumor once metachronous metastasis is diagnosed.

Influence of the initial recurrence site on prognosis after radical surgery for colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In this retrospective study, we aimed to elucidate how the initial recurrence site influences the post-recurrence survival (PRS) after the curative resection of colorectal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We collected samples from patients with stage I-III colorectal adenocarcinoma who were admitted to Yunnan Cancer Hospital from January 2008 to December 2019. Four hundred and six patients who developed recurrence after radical resection were included. The cases were classified according to the original site of recurrence as follows: liver metastases (n = 98), lung metastases (n = 127), peritoneum (n = 32), other individual organ (n = 69), two or more organs or sites (n = 49), and local recurrence (n = 31). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the PRS of patients with different initial sites of recurrence. The influence of the initial recurrence site on PRS was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The 3-year PRS of simple liver metastasis was 54.04% (95% CI, 45.46%-64.24%), and the 3-year PRS of simple lung metastasis was 50.05% (95% CI, 42.50%-58.95%). No significant difference was observed between simple liver metastasis or simple lung metastasis and local recurrence with a 3-year PRS of 66.99% (95% CI, 53.23%-84.32%). The 3-year PRS for peritoneal metastases was 25.43% (95% CI, 14.76%-43.82%), and the 3-year PRS for two or more organ sites was 34.84% (95% CI, 24.16%-50.24%). The peritoneal (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.10-2.79; P = 0.0189) and metastasis to two or more organs or sites (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.05-2.43; P = 0.0304) were PRS-independent adverse prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of patients with peritoneum and multiple organs or sites recurred was poor. This study suggests early monitoring of peritoneal and multiple organ or site recurrence after surgery. This part of patients should receive comprehensive treatment as early as possible to improve their prognosis.

Identification of high-risk stage I colon and rectal cancer patients: a retrospective analysis of a large Japanese cohort

PURPOSE

Data regarding risk factors for recurrence in stage I colorectal cancer patients are limited. The aim of this study was to clarify the existence of a high-recurrence-risk population among stage I colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

This analysis included 7,539 stage I colorectal cancer patients treated between 1997 and 2012 at 24 leading hospitals in Japan. Risk factors for time to recurrence were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a high-risk group for recurrence was identified. Prognostic outcomes of high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients were compared with those of low-risk stage I and stage II patients.

RESULTS

Multivariable analyses identified left-sided location (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-2.58), T2 tumors (HR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.21-2.66), and lymphatic invasion (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.05-2.28) as risk factors for recurrence in stage I colon cancer, and patients with these three risk factors were classified as high risk. For stage I rectal cancer, patients with poor differentiation (HR: 2.86, 95% CI: 1.21-5.69), T2 tumors (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.07-2.23), and venous invasion (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.08-2.13) were identified as high risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis of cumulative recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival revealed that the high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients have poorer clinical outcomes than the low-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

Although stage I colorectal cancer patients generally have a favorable prognosis after curative surgery, poorer prognosis was observed in high-risk stage I colorectal cancer patients than in low-risk patients.

Can we increase efficiency of CT lung cancer screening by combining with CVD and COPD screening? Results of an early economic evaluation

Objectives

Estimating the maximum acceptable cost (MAC) per screened individual for low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer (LC) screening, and determining the effect of additionally screening for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), or both on the MAC.

Methods

A model-based early health technology assessment (HTA) was conducted to estimate whether a new intervention could be cost-effective by calculating the MAC at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of €20k/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and €80k/QALY, for a population of current and former smokers, aged 50–75 years in The Netherlands. The MAC was estimated based on incremental QALYs gained from a stage shift assuming screened individuals are detected in earlier disease stages. Data were obtained from literature and publicly available statistics and validated with experts.

Results

The MAC per individual for implementing LC screening at a WTP of €20k/QALY was €113. If COPD, CVD, or both were included in screening, the MAC increased to €230, €895, or €971 respectively. Scenario analyses assessed whether screening-specific disease high-risk populations would improve cost-effectiveness, showing that high-risk CVD populations were more likely to improve economic viability compared to COPD.

Conclusions

The economic viability of combined screening is substantially larger than for LC screening alone, primarily due to benefits from CVD screening, and is dependent on the target screening population, which is key to optimise the screening program. The total cost of breast and cervical cancer screening is lower (€420) than the MAC of Big-3, indicating that Big-3 screening may be acceptable from a health economic perspective.

Key Points

• Once-off combined low-dose CT screening for lung cancer, COPD, and CVD in individuals aged 50–75 years is potentially cost-effective if screening would cost less than €971 per screened individual.

• Multi-disease screening requires detailed insight into the co-occurrence of these diseases to identify the optimal target screening population.

• With the same target screening population and WTP, lung cancer-only screening should cost less than €113 per screened individual to be cost-effective.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-021-08422-7.

The Influence of Analgesic Modalities on Postoperative Cancer Recurrence

The potential for cancer cells to grow and to metastasize depends on complex interactions between inflammatory signals and pathways, immune cells, and elements of the stromal tissue in which they invade. Related to the nature of many cancers, the probability of recurrence can potentially be quite high for some patients. Immunology, lifestyle modifications, timing of disease, genetics, age, gender, and race are only a handful of ways the likelihood of cancer recurrence can be influenced. The quantity, or density, of certain immunological cells or factors, plays a role in the propagation of cancer cells. Opioids are often used in cancer patients for acute postoperative and chronic pain management. While they can produce significant pain relief, the type of analgesic utilized is important, as it may influence cancer propagation. In this regard, certain opioids have been found to increase T regulatory cells while suppressing NK cell function. Morphine may promote tumor neovascularization and expansion. Fentanyl administration significantly diminishes NK-cells and CD8+ cytotoxic T-cells. In a recent meta-analysis, propofol-based anesthesia improved both cancer-free survival and overall survival. COX inhibitors have also shown promise in persevering cancer immune function, as in literature involving ketorolac and celecoxib. In summary, inhaled anesthesia and opioids may contribute to a pro-tumor metastasis environment also known as cancer propagation; whereas propofol and COX inhibitors may provide a better alternative to reduce cancer recurrence and propagation.

CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes within the primary tumor of patients with synchronous de novo metastatic colorectal carcinoma do not track with survival

OBJECTIVES

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), particularly CD8+ TILs in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), are highly prognostic in the early-disease stages (I-II). In metastatic disease (stage IV; mCRC), their influence is less well defined. It has presumably failed to contain tumor cells to the primary site; however, is this evident? We explored the prognostic impact of TILs at the primary site in patients who presented de novo with mCRC.

METHODS

Treatment-naïve patients (109) with mCRC were assessed for CD8+ TILs and PD-L1 expression. Microsatellite instability (MSI) was evaluated by IHC for PMS2 and MSH6 proteins and/or by PCR using the Bethesda panel.

RESULTS

Microsatellite instability-high tumors had significantly more CD8+ TILs, with no significant survival advantage observed between MSI-H and microsatellite stable (MSS) tumors (12 vs 19 months, P = 0.304). TIL density for all cases had no impact on OS (low: 20 vs high: 13 months, P = 0.426), while PD-L1 of 1% or higher was associated with reduced mean survival (9.6 vs 18.9 months; P = 0.038). MSI-H tumors and associated immune cells had higher PD-L1 expression than in MSS cases. A positive correlation between PD-L1 on immune cells and CD8+ve TILs was found. A subset of MSS tumors had relatively high TILs approximating that of MSI-H tumors.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to early-stage CRC, the immune response in primary tumors of patients with de novo mCRC does not appear to influence survival. A subgroup of MSS tumors was identified with increased TILs/PD-L1 comparable to MSI-H tumors, traditionally not be considered for immune checkpoint blockade and perhaps should be.

Performance of Cancer Recurrence Algorithms After Coding Scheme Switch From International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision to International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision

PURPOSE

We previously developed and validated informatic algorithms that used International Classification of Diseases 9th revision (ICD9)-based diagnostic and procedure codes to detect the presence and timing of cancer recurrence (the RECUR Algorithms). In 2015, ICD10 replaced ICD9 as the worldwide coding standard. To understand the impact of this transition, we evaluated the performance of the RECUR Algorithms after incorporating ICD10 codes.

METHODS

Using publicly available translation tables along with clinician and other expertise, we updated the algorithms to include ICD10 codes as additional input variables. We evaluated the performance of the algorithms using gold standard recurrence measures associated with a contemporary cohort of patients with stage I to III breast, colorectal, and lung (excluding IIIB) cancer and derived performance measures, including the area under the receiver operating curve, average absolute prediction error, and correct classification rate. These values were compared with the performance measures derived from the validation of the original algorithms.

RESULTS

A total of 659 colorectal, 280 lung, and 2,053 breast cancer cases were identified. Area under the receiver operating curve derived from the updated algorithms was 89.0% (95% CI, 82.3% to 95.7%), 88.9% (95% CI, 79.3% to 98.2%), and 80.5% (95% CI, 72.8% to 88.2%) for the colorectal, lung, and breast cancer algorithms, respectively. Average absolute prediction errors for recurrence timing were 2.7 (SE, 11.3%), 2.4 (SE, 10.4%), and 5.6 months (SE, 21.8%), respectively, and timing estimates were within 6 months of actual recurrence for more than 80% of colorectal, more than 90% of lung, and more than 50% of breast cancer cases using the updated algorithm.

CONCLUSION

Performance measures derived from the updated and original algorithms had overlapping confidence intervals, suggesting that the ICD9 to ICD10 transition did not affect the RECUR Algorithm performance.

Melanoma incidence, recurrence, and mortality in an integrated healthcare system: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Numerous studies have examined melanoma incidence and survival, but studies on melanoma recurrence are limited. We examined melanoma incidence, recurrence, and mortality among members of Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2015.

Methods

Age‐adjusted incidence rates were computed to examine trends among KPCO members aged 21 years and older. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine factors associated with recurrence and mortality.

Results

Our cohort included 1931 cases of invasive melanoma. Incidence rates increased over time and were higher than SEER rates; however, the increase was limited to early stage disease. In multivariable models, stage at initial diagnosis, gender, and age were associated with melanoma recurrence. Men were more likely to have a recurrence than women (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19‐2.43), and for each decade of increasing age, the adjusted HR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06‐1.37). Factors associated with all‐cause mortality included stage (HR = 12.87, 95% CI: 6.63‐24.99, for stage IV vs stage I), male gender (HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.12‐1.79), older age at diagnosis, lower socioeconomic status, and comorbidity index. For melanoma‐specific mortality, results were similar, with one exception: age was not associated with melanoma‐specific death (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94‐1.25, P = 0.253).

Conclusions

Data derived from an insured patient population, such as KPCO, have the potential to enhance our understanding of emerging trends in melanoma. This is the first population‐based study in the United States to examine patient characteristics associated with risk of recurrence. Men have an increased risk of both recurrence and death, and thus may benefit from more intensive follow‐up than women.

Spending for Advanced Cancer Diagnoses: Comparing Recurrent Versus De Novo Stage IV Disease

PURPOSE

Spending for patients with advanced cancer is substantial. Past efforts to characterize this spending usually have not included patients with recurrence (who may differ from those with de novo stage IV disease) or described which services drive spending.

METHODS

Using SEER-Medicare data from 2008 to 2013, we identified patients with breast, colorectal, and lung cancer with either de novo stage IV or recurrent advanced cancer. Mean spending/patient/month (2012 US dollars) was estimated from 12 months before to 11 months after diagnosis for all services and by the type of service. We describe the absolute difference in mean monthly spending for de novo versus recurrent patients, and we estimate differences after controlling for type of advanced cancer, year of diagnosis, age, sex, comorbidity, and other factors.

RESULTS

We identified 54,982 patients with advanced cancer. Before diagnosis, mean monthly spending was higher for recurrent patients (absolute difference: breast, $1,412; colorectal, $3,002; lung, $2,805; all P < .001), whereas after the diagnosis, it was higher for de novo patients (absolute difference: breast, $2,443; colorectal, $4,844; lung, $2,356; all P < .001). Spending differences were driven by inpatient, physician, and hospice services. Across the 2-year period around the advanced cancer diagnosis, adjusted mean monthly spending was higher for de novo versus recurrent patients (spending ratio: breast, 2.39 [95% CI, 2.05 to 2.77]; colorectal, 2.64 [95% CI, 2.31 to 3.01]; lung, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.30 to 1.65]).

CONCLUSION

Spending for de novo cancer was greater than spending for recurrent advanced cancer. Understanding the patterns and drivers of spending is necessary to design alternative payment models and to improve value.

Comparing Survival After Recurrent vs De Novo Stage IV Advanced Breast, Lung, and Colorectal Cancer

The treatments provided to and survival of patients with recurrent vs de novo stage IV advanced breast, lung, and colorectal cancer may differ but have not been well studied. Using population-based data from the Cancer Research Network for 4510 patients with advanced breast, lung, or colorectal cancer, we matched recurrent/de novo patients on demographic factors. We found longer survival for recurrent vs de novo lung cancer (182 matched pairs); no significant difference for colorectal cancer (332 matched pairs); and shorter survival for recurrent vs de novo breast cancer (219 matched pairs). Compared with recurrent cases, chemotherapy use and radiation therapy use were more common among de novo cases. Differences in treatment and survival between recurrent and de novo advanced cancer patients could inform prognostic estimates and clinical trial design.