Resting Heart Rate as an Important Predictor of Mortality and Morbidity in Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Visit-to-visit changes in heart rate in heart failure: A pooled participant-level analysis of the PARADIGM-HF and PARAGON-HF trials

AIMS

Resting heart rate (HR) is a strong risk marker in patients with heart failure (HF), but the clinical implications of visit-to-visit changes in HR (ΔHR) are less well established. We aimed to explore the association between ΔHR and subsequent outcomes in a pooled dataset of two well-characterized cohorts of patients with HF across the full range of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

PARADIGM-HF and PARAGON-HF were randomized trials testing sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril or valsartan, respectively, in patients with HF and LVEF ≤40% (PARADIGM-HF) or LVEF ≥45% (PARAGON-HF). We analysed the association between ΔHR from the preceding visit with the primary endpoint of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death using covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. A total of 13 194 patients (mean age 67 ± 11 years, 67% men, mean LVEF 40 ± 15%) were included. Over a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 3114 patients experienced a first HFH or cardiovascular death event (10.4 events per 100 patient-years). An increase in HR from the preceding visit, compared with no change, was associated with a higher risk (hazard ratio 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.15; p < 0.001 per 5 bpm increase). Conversely, a drop in HR was associated with a lower risk (hazard ratio 0.97; 95% CI 0.94-1.00; p = 0.044 per 5 bpm drop). The prognostic implications of ΔHR were consistent across the range of LVEF and observed regardless of β-blocker use or presence of a permanent pacemaker. Visit-to-visit increases in HR were especially prognostic in patients without atrial fibrillation (pinteraction = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Across a broad spectrum of patients with chronic HF, increases in HR from a preceding visit independently predicted clinical outcomes. The detection of notable increases in HR between outpatient visits may help identify patients at heightened risk of adverse events.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01035255 (PARADIGM-HF), NCT01920711 (PARAGON-HF).

TheU-shape association between on-admission resting heart rate and 60-day all-cause mortality of AIDS inpatients in Fujian China: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with poor outcomes in both healthy individuals and those with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). This study aimed to investigated the association between on admission resting heart rate (RHR) and 60-day mortality.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective cohort study evaluated the effect of RHR on the 60-day mortality of patient with AIDS in Southeast China. A total of 2188 patients with AIDS admitted for the first time between January 2016 and December 2021 were included. The RHR was categorized into tertiles. Disease progression was estimated using 60-day mortality rates. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the RHR with disease progression, and a two-piecewise Cox regression model was used to reveal the RHR effect at admission on 60-day mortality.

RESULTS

We observed a U-shape relationship between RHR and 60-day mortality. For a above 90 bpm, the 60-day mortality rose rapidly with a multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.032 (95% confidence interval [CI 1.016-1.048, P < 0.001). Below the threshold, 60 days mortality decreased as the RHR increased to 90 bpm with a multivariate-adjusted OR of 0.943 (95% CI 0.904-0.984, P = 0.0065).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified a U-shape relationship between RHR and 60-day mortality in HIV/AIDS patients. Further research is needed to characterize the role of RHR in the timely prevention of mortality in HIV/AIDS patients.

Predicting heart failure outcomes by integrating breath-by-breath measurements from cardiopulmonary exercise testing and clinical data through a deep learning survival neural network

Aims

Mathematical models previously developed to predict outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) generally have limited performance and have yet to integrate complex data derived from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), including breath-by-breath data. We aimed to develop and validate a time-to-event prediction model using a deep learning framework using the DeepSurv algorithm to predict outcomes of HF.

Methods and results

Inception cohort of 2490 adult patients with high-risk cardiac conditions or HF underwent CPET with breath-by-breath measurements. Potential predictive features included known clinical indicators, standard summary statistics from CPETs, and mathematical features extracted from the breath-by-breath time series of 13 measurements. The primary outcome was a composite of death, heart transplant, or mechanical circulatory support treated as a time-to-event outcomes. Predictive features ranked as most important included many of the features engineered from the breath-by-breath data in addition to traditional clinical risk factors. The prediction model showed excellent performance in predicting the composite outcome with an area under the curve of 0.93 in the training and 0.87 in the validation data sets. Both the predicted vs. actual freedom from the composite outcome and the calibration of the prediction model were excellent. Model performance remained stable in multiple subgroups of patients.

Conclusion

Using a combined deep learning and survival algorithm, integrating breath-by-breath data from CPETs resulted in improved predictive accuracy for long-term (up to 10 years) outcomes in HF. DeepSurv opens the door for future prediction models that are both highly performing and can more fully use the large and complex quantity of data generated during the care of patients with HF.

Clinical Implications of Ivabradine in the Contemporary Era

Ivabradine is a recently introduced inhibitor of the If ion channel, which exhibits the capacity to reduce heart rate while preserving hemodynamic stability. At present, ivabradine finds its clinical indication in patients suffering from heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and maintaining a relative sinus rhythm refractory to beta-blockers. To optimize heart rate control, it is recommended to pursue an aggressive up-titration of ivabradine. This approach may ameliorate tachycardia-induced hypotension by incrementally enhancing cardiac output and allow further up-titration of agents aimed at ameliorating heart failure, such as beta-blockers. Both the modulation of heart rate itself and the up-titration of agents targeting heart failure lead to cardiac reverse remodeling, consequently culminating in a subsequent reduction in mortality and morbidity. A novel overlap theory that our team proposed recently has emerged in recent times. Under trans-mitral Doppler echocardiography, the E-wave and A-wave closely juxtapose one another without any overlapping at the optimal heart rate. Employing echocardiography-guided ivabradine for heart-rate modulation to minimize the overlap between the E-wave and A-wave appears to confer substantial benefits to patients with heart failure. This approach facilitates superior cardiac reverse remodeling and yields more favorable clinical outcomes when compared to those patients who do not receive echocardiography-guided care. The next pertinent issue revolves around the potential expansion of ivabradine's clinical indications to encompass a broader spectrum of diseases. It is imperative to acknowledge that ivabradine may not yield clinically significant benefits in patients afflicted by heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, acute heart failure, sepsis, or stable angina. An important fact yet to be explored is the clinical applicability of ivabradine in patients with atrial fibrillation, a concern that beckons future investigation. In this review, the concept of overlap theory it introduced, along with its application to expand the indication of ivabradine and the overlap theory-guided optimal ivabradine therapy.

Predictors of Cardiac Autonomic Dysfunction in Obesity-Related Hypertension

INTRODUCTION

Cardiac Autonomic Dysfunction (CAD) is an overlooked cardiovascular risk factor in individuals with obesity-related hypertension. Despite its clinical significance, there is a notable lack of clarity regarding the pathophysiological correlates involved in its onset and progression.

AIM

The present study aimed to identify potential predictors of CAD in obesity-related hypertension.

METHODS

A total of 72 participants (34 men and 38 women) were enrolled. Comprehensive evaluations were conducted, including cardiac autonomic function assessments, body composition estimation and biochemical analysis. Participants were categorized as CAD-positive or CAD-negative based on Ewing's criteria for autonomic dysfunction. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify potential predictors for CAD. Multivariate logistic regression models were further constructed by adjusting clinically relevant covariates to identify independent predictors of CAD.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that resting heart rate (HRrest), (odds ratio, confidence interval: 0.85, 0.78-0.93; p = 0.001) and percentage body fat (BF%), (odds ratio, confidence interval: 0.78, 0.64-0.96; p = 0.018) were significant independent predictors of CAD. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis depicted optimal cut-off values for HRrest and BF% as > 74.1 bpm and > 33.6%, respectively. Multicolinearity analysis showed variance inflation factors (VIF) below the cautionary threshold of 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The HRrest and BF% emerged as significant independent predictors of CAD in obesity-related hypertension. Therapeutic strategies should target HRrest < 74.1 bpm and BF% < 33.6% to mitigate CAD risk in this population. Future trials are required to establish causal relationships and may consider additional confounding variables in obesity-related hypertension.

Importance of resting heart rate

Resting heart rate is a determinant of cardiac output and physiological homeostasis. Although a simple, but critical, parameter, this vital sign predicts adverse outcomes, including mortality, and development of diseases in otherwise normal and healthy individuals. Temporal changes in heart rate can have valuable predictive capabilities. Heart rate can reflect disease severity in patients with various medical conditions. While heart rate represents a compilation of physiological inputs, including sympathetic and parasympathetic tone, aside from the underlying intrinsic sinus rate, how resting heart rate affects outcomes is uncertain. Mechanisms relating resting heart rate to outcomes may be disease-dependent but why resting heart rate in otherwise healthy, normal individuals affects outcomes remains obscure. For specific conditions, physiologically appropriate heart rate reductions may improve outcomes. However, to date, in the normal population, evidence that interventions aimed at reducing heart rate improves outcomes remains undefined. Emerging data suggest that reduction in heart rate via vagal activation and/or sympathetic inhibition is propitious.

The usability of daytime and night-time heart rate dynamics as digital biomarkers of depression severity

BACKGROUND

Alterations in heart rate (HR) may provide new information about physiological signatures of depression severity. This 2-year study in individuals with a history of recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) explored the intra-individual variations in HR parameters and their relationship with depression severity.

METHODS

Data from 510 participants (Number of observations of the HR parameters = 6666) were collected from three centres in the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK, as a part of the remote assessment of disease and relapse-MDD study. We analysed the relationship between depression severity, assessed every 2 weeks with the Patient Health Questionnaire-8, with HR parameters in the week before the assessment, such as HR features during all day, resting periods during the day and at night, and activity periods during the day evaluated with a wrist-worn Fitbit device. Linear mixed models were used with random intercepts for participants and countries. Covariates included in the models were age, sex, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption, antidepressant use and co-morbidities with other medical health conditions.

RESULTS

Decreases in HR variation during resting periods during the day were related with an increased severity of depression both in univariate and multivariate analyses. Mean HR during resting at night was higher in participants with more severe depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that alterations in resting HR during all day and night are associated with depression severity. These findings may provide an early warning of worsening depression symptoms which could allow clinicians to take responsive treatment measures promptly.

Conventional and genetic associations between resting heart rate, cardiac morphology and function as assessed by magnetic resonance imaging: Insights from the UK biobank population study

Aim

To examine the direction, strength and causality of the associations of resting heart rate (RHR) with cardiac morphology and function in 20,062 UK Biobank participants.

Methods and results

Participants underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and we extracted CMR biventricular structural and functional metrics using automated pipelines. Multivariate linear regression adjusted for the main cardiovascular risk factors and Two-sample Mendelian Randomization analyses were performed to assess the potential relationship, grouped by heart rate and stratified by sex. Each 10 beats per minute increase in RHR was linked with smaller ventricular structure (lower biventricular end-diastolic volume and end-systolic volume), poorer left ventricular (LV) function (lower LV ejection fraction, global longitude strain and global function index) and unhealthy pattern of LV remodeling (higher values of myocardial contraction fraction), but there is no statistical difference in LV wall thickness. These trends are more pronounced among males and consistent with the causal effect direction of genetic variants interpretation. These observations reflect that RHR has an independent and broad impact on LV remodeling, however, genetically-predicted RHR is not statistically related to heart failure.

Conclusion

We demonstrate higher RHR cause smaller ventricular chamber volume, poorer systolic function and unhealthy cardiac remodeling pattern. Our findings provide effective evidence for the potential mechanism of cardiac remodeling and help to explore the potential scope or benefit of intervention.

Cardiovascular and metabolic determinants of quality of life in patients with cancer

AIMS

Maintaining quality of life (QoL) in patients with cancer has gathered significant interest, but little is known about its major determinants. We sought to identify determinants of QoL in patients undergoing cancer treatment as well as in treatment-naïve patients about to commence such therapy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

QoL was assessed in 283 patients with cancer using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 questionnaire. All patients underwent a battery of tests including physical examination, resting electrocardiogram, hand grip strength, and biochemistry assessment. Using multivariable logistic regression, we found that age [odds ratio (OR) 0.954, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.916-0.994], resting heart rate (OR 1.036, 95% CI 1.004-1.068), hand grip strength (OR 0.932, 95% CI 0.878-0.990), and the presence of cachexia (OR 4.334, 95% CI 1.767-10.631) and dyspnoea (OR 3.725, 95% CI 1.540-9.010; all P < 0.05) remained independently predictive of reduced QoL.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, it may be reasonable to address circumstances that are affecting muscle mass, body weight, and heart rate to maintaining QoL; however, prospective studies to test these endpoints are required.

Association between sex and survival after non-traumatic out of hospital cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing studies have shown conflicting results regarding the relationship of sex with survival after out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). This systematic review evaluates the association of female sex with survival to discharge and survival to 30 days after non-traumatic OHCA.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through June 2021 for studies evaluating female sex as a predictor of survival in adult patients with non-traumatic cardiac arrest. Random-effects inverse variance meta-analyses were performed to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The GRADE approach was used to assess evidence quality.

RESULTS

Thirty studies including 1,068,788 patients had female proportion of 41%. There was no association for female sex with survival to discharge (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.95-1.12; I²=89%). Subgroup analysis of low risk of bias studies demonstrated increased survival to discharge for female sex (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18-1.23; I²=0%) and with high certainty, the absolute increase in survival was 2.2% (95% CI 0.1%-3.6%). Female sex was not associated with survival to 30 days post-OHCA (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.92-1.14; I²=79%).

CONCLUSIONS

In adult patients experiencing OHCA, with high certainty in the evidence from studies with low risk of bias, female sex had a small absolute difference for the outcome survival to discharge and no difference in survival at 30 days. Future models that aim to stratify risk of survival post-OHCA should focus on sex-specific factors as opposed to sex as an isolated prognostic factor.

Adding Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness to the Framingham Risk Score and Mortality Risk in a Korean Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The added value of non-exercise-based estimation of cardiorespiratory fitness (eCRF) to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors for mortality risk has not been examined in Korean populations.

METHODS

This population-based prospective cohort study examined the relationship of the 10-year Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD risk and eCRF with all-cause and CVD mortality in a representative sample of Korean adults aged 30 years and older. Data regarding a total of 38,350 participants (16,505 men/21,845 women) were obtained from the 2007-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). All-cause and CVD mortality were the main outcomes. The 10-year FRS point sum and eCRF level were the main exposures.

RESULTS

All-cause and CVD mortality was positively correlated with the 10-year FRS point summation and inversely correlated with eCRF level in this study population. The protective of high eCRF against all-cause and CVD mortality was more prominent in the middle and high FRS category than in the low FRS category. Notably, the FRS plus eCRF model has better predictor power for estimating mortality risk compared to the FRS only model.

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings indicate that eCRF can be used as an alternative to objectively measured CRF for mortality risk prediction.

Admission Resting Heart Rate as an Independent Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture

Purpose

To investigate the relationship between admission resting heart rate (RHR) and all-cause mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study with 837 patients based on the established hip fracture database was conducted. Admission RHR was measured via electrocardiogram, and patients were grouped by the median RHR value (beats per minute, bpm). The main outcomes were 1-year and total all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline were used to assess the relationship between RHR and mortality. Sensitivity analyses were further performed to determine whether the results were stable.

Results

The mean and median RHR were 82.3 and 80.0 bpm, respectively. After a median follow-up of 31.8 months, the 1-year and total all-cause mortality were 17.6% and 31.2%. Multivariable Cox analyses showed that high RHR was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality (HR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08–2.13; p = 0.016), and total mortality (HR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.12–1.85; p = 0.005). For each 10 bpm increase in RHR, the risk of 1-year death increased by 23.0% (HR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09–1.39; p = 0.001), and total death increased by 21.0% (HR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09–1.34; p < 0.001). A typical J-shaped curve was observed in the restricted cubic spline for the association between RHR and 1-year mortality, with the lowest mortality risk at 70 bpm. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar findings.

Conclusion

An increase in RHR was independently associated with all-cause mortality, and may be a useful prognostic predictor for elderly patients with hip fracture.