Predicting early mortality after acute variceal hemorrhage based on classification and regression tree analysis

Development and validation of a prognostic score to identify the optimal candidate for preemptive TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Baveno VII workshop recommends the use of preemptive TIPS (p-TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) at high- risk of treatment failure. However, the criteria defining "high-risk" have low clinical accessibility or include subjective variables. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for better identification of p-TIPS candidates.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The derivation cohort included 1554 patients with cirrhosis and AVB who were treated with endoscopy plus drug (n = 1264) or p-TIPS (n = 290) from 12 hospitals in China between 2010 and 2017. We first used competing risk regression to develop a score for predicting 6-week and 1-year mortality in patients treated with endoscopy plus drugs, which included age, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, white blood cell, creatinine, and sodium. The score was internally validated with the bootstrap method, which showed good discrimination (6 wk/1 y concordance-index: 0.766/0.740) and calibration, and outperformed other currently available models. In the second stage, the developed score was combined with treatment and their interaction term to predicate the treatment effect of p-TIPS (mortality risk difference between treatment groups) in the whole derivation cohort. The estimated treatment effect of p-TIPS varied substantially among patients. The prediction model had good discriminative ability (6 wk/1 y c -for-benefit: 0.696/0.665) and was well calibrated. These results were confirmed in the validation dataset of 445 patients with cirrhosis with AVB from 6 hospitals in China between 2017 and 2019 (6-wk/1-y c-for-benefit: 0.675/0.672).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a clinical prediction model that can help to identify individuals who will benefit from p-TIPS, which may guide clinical decision-making.

MELD, MELD 3.0, versus Child score to predict mortality after acute variceal hemorrhage: A multicenter US cohort

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal hemorrhage is a major decompensating event in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with high 6-week mortality risk. Many prognostic models based on clinical and laboratory parameters have been developed to risk stratify patients on index bleeding presentation, including those based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP). However, consensus on model performance remains unclear.

METHODS

Using a large US multicenter cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis who presented with acute variceal hemorrhage, this study evaluates, recalibrates, and compares liver severity index-based models, including the more recent MELD 3.0 model, to investigate their predictive performance on 6-week mortality. Models were also recalibrated and externally validated using additional external centers.

RESULTS

All recalibrated MELD-based and CTP-based models had excellent discrimination to identify patients at higher risk for 6-week mortality on initial presentation. The recalibrated CTP score model maintained the best calibration and performance within the validation cohort. Patients with low CTP scores (Class A, score 5-6) were strongly associated with < 5% mortality, while high CTP score (Class C, score > 9) were associated with > 20% mortality.

CONCLUSION

Use of liver severity index-based models accurately predict 6-week mortality risk for patients admitted to the hospital with acute variceal hemorrhage and supports the utilization of these models in future clinical trials as well as their use in clinical practice.

Association of nonmalignant portal vein thrombosis and clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding: a multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Baveno VII workshop recommends management of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in cirrhotic patients with nonmalignant portal vein thrombosis (PVT) should be performed according to the guidelines for patients without PVT. Nevertheless, whether PVT affects the outcome of patients with cirrhosis and AVB remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical impact of PVT on the outcomes in the pre-emptive TIPSS eligible patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

METHODS

From December 2010 to June 2016, 1219 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted due to AVB with (n = 151; 12.4%) or without PVT (n = 1068; 87.6%), who received drug plus endoscopic treatment (a combination of vasoactive drugs, antibiotics, and endoscopic ligation for AVB, followed by beta-blockers plus variceal ligation for prevention of rebleeding) were retrospectively included. Fine and Gray competing risk regression models were taken to evaluate the impact of PVT on clinical outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 211 patients (17.3%) died, 490 (40.2%) experienced further bleeding, and 78 (6.4%) experienced new or worsening ascites within 1 year. Compared with those without PVT, patients with PVT had a similar risk of mortality (PVT vs no-PVT: 19.9% vs 16.7% at 1 year; adjusted HR 0.88, 95%CI 0.51-1.52, p = 0.653), further bleeding (47.0% vs 39.2% at 1 year, adjusted HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.92-1.53, p = 183), and new or worsening ascites (7.9% vs 9.6%, adjusted HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.39-1.28, p = 0.253) after adjusting for confounders in multivariable models. These findings were consistent across different relevant subgroups and confirmed by propensity score matching analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed no evidence that the PVT was associated with an improved or worsened outcome among cirrhotic patients with AVB who received standard treatment.

Risk stratification based on acute-on-chronic liver failure in cirrhotic patients hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, multiple organ failures and high short-term mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the role of ACLF in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients with AVB.

METHODS

Prospective data of 335 cirrhotic patients hospitalized for AVB were retrospectively extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. ACLF was defined by European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure Consortium and diagnosed/graded with chronic liver failure-organ failure (CLIF-OF) score. Cox-proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors for 6-week morality in AVB patients. Discrimination and calibration of prognostic scores were evaluated by plotting the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, respectively. Overall performance was assessed by calculating the Brier score and R² value.

RESULTS

A total of 181 (54.0%) patients were diagnosed with ACLF (grade 1: 18.2%, grade 2: 33.7%, grade 3: 48.1%) at admission. The 6-week mortality in patients with ACLF was significantly higher than that in patients without ACLF (43.6% vs. 8.4%, P < 0.001) and increased in line with the severity of ACLF (22.5%, 34.2% and 63.8% for ACLF grade 1, 2 and 3, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, presence of ACLF remained as an independent risk factor for 6-week mortality after adjusting for confounding factors (HR = 2.12, P = 0.03). The discrimination, calibration and overall performance of CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD were superior to the traditional prognostic scores (CTP, MELD and MELD-Na) in the prediction of 6-week mortality of patients with and without ACLF, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients with AVB is poor when accompanied by ACLF. ACLF at admission is an independent predictor for the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB. CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD are the best prognostic scores in AVB patients with and without ACLF, respectively, and can be used for the risk stratification of these two distinct entities.

Liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS model) predicts variceal rebleeding for cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE

The liver stiffness- spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS model) can identify a high risk of decompensated events in cirrhotic patients. We aimed to evaluate the value of the LSPS model as a risk stratification strategy in the secondary prevention for cirrhotic patients with esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB).

METHODS

Consecutive EGVB patients who underwent liver stiffness measurement by acoustic radiation force impulse, platelet count and ultrasonography were enrolled between January 2013 and December 2019. We calculated the LSPS of all patients and followed up for over 2 years. The primary outcome was rebleeding. Transplant-free survival and overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) were the secondary outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 131 patients were analyzed. The median value of the LSPS model is 0.1879. We developed risk stratification based on the LSPS model and divided the patients into two groups: the high-LSPS (LSPS > 0.1879) group and the low-LSPS (LSPS ≤ 0.1879) group. Sixty-two (47.33%) patients suffered rebleeding, in which there were 21 (31.92%) patients with low LSPS and 41 (63.08%) patients with high LSPS (hazard ratio 2.883; 95% confidence interval, 1.723-4.822, P  < 0.001). For the whole cohort, the rates of transplant-free survival and OHE were consistently similar between the two groups at 2 years.

CONCLUSION

The LSPS is a reliable, noninvasive method for the detection of a high risk of rebleeding for the secondary prevention of EGVB.

External validation of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with AVB.

METHODS

A total of 235 cirrhotic patients with AVB and without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were retrospectively enrolled. The discrimination, calibration, overall performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD were evaluated and compared with traditional prognostic scores.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of CLIF-C AD was significantly or numerically higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (0.871 vs. 0.737, P  = 0.03), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) (0.871 vs. 0.757, P  = 0.1) and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) (0.871 vs. 0.822, P  = 0.45). The calibration of CLIF-C AD was excellent and superior to that of CTP, MELD and MELD-Na. The brier score/ R2 value for CLIF-C AD, CTP, MELD and MELD-Na were 0.045/0.278, 0.051/0.090, 0.050/0.123 and 0.046/0.207, respectively, suggesting a superior overall performance of CLIF-C AD to traditional scores. In decision curve analysis, the standardized net benefit of CLIF-C AD was higher to that of traditional scores. Patients with CLIF-C ADs ≤48, 49-59 and ≥60 were, respectively, stratified into low, moderate and high-risk groups (6-week mortality: 2.7% vs. 12.5% vs. 37.5%, P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The prediction performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD for 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB and without ACLF are excellent and superior to traditional prognostic scores. The new risk stratification with CLIF-C ADs may be useful in guiding rational management of AVB.

Prediction of anorectal malformations with bladder-neck/urethral-prostatic fistula using classification and regression tree analysis

BACKGROUND

The anorectal malformations (ARMs) with bladder-neck/urethral-prostatic fistula in males are the most complex groups in ARMs. It is essential to diagnose them effectively before the primary operation for both surgical modalities and future functional prognosis can be quite different from other types. Our study aimed to develop a classification and regression tree (CART) model for the prediction of ARMs with bladder-neck/urethral-prostatic fistula.

METHODS

A total of 132 newborns with ARMs were included retrospectively and randomly assigned to the training sample and test sample in a 3:1 ratio. The pouch-perineum distance of ultrasound (PPDU), the pouch-perineum distance of invertogram (PPDI), and the rectum gas above the coccyx (RGAC) on the invertogram were hypothesized can serve as individual predictors. The CART analysis was used to determine the best combination of candidate predictors. The model's performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and validated in the test sample.

RESULTS

All three individual predictors were included in the CART model to predict the ARMs with bladder-neck/urethral-prostatic fistula in the derivation cohort with the following test characteristics (95% CI): sensitivity 75.6% (60.1 to 86.6); specificity 88.9% (76.7 to 95.4); AUC 0.909 (0.854 to 0.965). The model's predicted accuracy was validated in the test cohort (AUC = 0.883). In all 132 subjects, the AUC of the tree model was significantly superior to that of the best individual index: PPDU (0.901 vs. 0.819; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model that consists of PPDU, PPDI, and RGAC may be useful in predicting ARMs with bladder-neck/urethral-prostatic fistula.

Intensive Care Unit Care of a Patient with Cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis frequently require admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Common indications for admission to ICU include one or more reasons of sepsis, shock due to any cause, acute gastrointestinal bleeding, and altered mentation either due to hepatic encephalopathy, alcohol withdrawal/intoxication, or metabolic encephalopathy. The appropriate critical care of an individual can determine the outcomes of these sick patients. The Airway, Breathing, Circulation, Disability (ABCD) approach to a patient admitted to ICU includes airway, breathing, circulation, and disability management. In this review, the authors discuss the common indications for ICU admission in a patient with cirrhosis and also their management.

AIMS65 and PALBI Scores as Predictors of Six Months’ Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding

Background & Aims:

Bleeding gastroesophageal varices are a cause of high mortality among cirrhotic patients. We aimed to investigate late mortality predictors and prognostic models using easily verified factors at admission in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB).

Methods:

Between January 2020 and June 2020, 142 patients with AVB from Tanta university hospital were included. Investigating multiple prognostic models was done using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6 months' mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

Results:

The 6 months’ overall mortality rate was 31% (44 patients had died). AIMS56, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) grade C and MELD scores were significantly higher among non survivors (p<0.001) while Platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) was significantly more negative among survivors (P=0.001). Hepatocellular carcinoma was not significantly related to the mortality (p =0.364). Univariate analysis showed that high CTP, MELD, AIMS65 and PALBI scores were predictors of mortality and associated with decreased survival with high sensitivity and low specificity; while multivariate analysis showed that only AIMS56 was independently associated with mortality (p 0.004).

Conclusion:

CTP, MELD, AIMS65 and PALBI scores are simple, bed side risk scores that can be used for the prediction of 6 months’ mortality after AVB in cirrhotic patients with high sensitivities and lower specificities.

The risk of variceal bleeding during endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a widely performed procedure. However, the risk of variceal bleeding during ERCP has rarely been assessed. This study aims to evaluate the risk of variceal bleeding in patients with esophageal varices (EV) undergoing ERCP.

METHODS

From October 2010 to November 2017, the study retrospectively enrolled 75 cirrhotic patients who received elective ERCP. The patient's risk of gastrointestinal (GI) and variceal bleeding and other procedure-related adverse events within 30 days of ERCP were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among the 75 patients, 45 patients (60.0%) had EV. Most of the patients were males (65.3%), and there were high rates of viral hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (36.0%), Child-Pugh B (49.3%), and an indication of choledocholithiasis (40.0%). Thirty-three of 45 (73.3%) patients had high-risk EV, and nine (20.0%) patients had concomitant gastric varices. There was no esophageal variceal bleeding; however, one patient had gastric variceal bleeding after ERCP. Nonvariceal significant GI bleeding occurred in three patients with EV and one without EV ( p = 0.529). Post-ERCP pancreatitis occurred in three patients with EV and five without EV ( p = 0.169). No perforation or procedure-associated mortality was noted.

CONCLUSION

The risk of esophageal variceal bleeding within 30 days of ERCP is neglectable, except for a patient who suffered from gastric variceal bleeding. Other complications, such as nonvariceal bleeding and pancreatitis, are also no higher in patients with EV. Therefore, ERCP is generally a safe procedure for a patient with high-risk esophageal varices.

Identifying predictors of varices grading in patients with cirrhosis using ensemble learning

Objectives

The present study was conducted to improve the performance of predictive methods by introducing the most important factors which have the highest effects on the prediction of esophageal varices (EV) grades among patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

In the present study, the ensemble learning methods, including Catboost and XGB classifier, were used to choose the most potent predictors of EV grades solely based on routine laboratory and clinical data, a dataset of 490 patients with cirrhosis gathered. To increase the validity of the results, a five-fold cross-validation method was applied. The model was conducted using python language, Anaconda open-source platform. TRIPOD checklist for prediction model development was completed.

Results

The Catboost model predicted all the targets correctly with 100% precision. However, the XGB classifier had the best performance for predicting grades 0 and 1, and totally the accuracy was 91.02%. The most significant variables, according to the best performing model, which was CatBoost, were child score, white blood cell (WBC), vitalism K (K), and international normalized ratio (INR).

Conclusions

Using machine learning models, especially ensemble learning models, can remarkably increase the prediction performance. The models allow practitioners to predict EV risk at any clinical visit and decrease unneeded esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and consequently reduce morbidity, mortality, and cost of the long-term follow-ups for patients with cirrhosis.

Endotoxin Translocation and Gut Barrier Dysfunction Are Related to Variceal Bleeding in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

Background

Bacterial infections are associated with the risk of variceal bleeding through complex pathophysiologic pathways.

Objectives

The primary objective of the present case-control study was to investigate the role of bacterial translocation and intestinal barrier dysfunction in the pathogenesis of variceal bleeding. A secondary objective was to determine independent predictors of key outcomes in variceal bleeding, including bleeding-related mortality.

Methods

Eighty-four (n = 84) consecutive patients participated in the study, 41 patients with acute variceal bleeding and 43 patients with stable cirrhosis, and were followed up for 6 weeks. Peripheral blood samples were collected at patient admission and before any therapeutic intervention.

Results

Child-Pugh (CP) score (OR: 1.868; p = 0.044), IgM anti-endotoxin antibody levels (OR: 0.954; p = 0.016) and TGF-β levels (OR: 0.377; p = 0.026) were found to be significant predictors of variceal bleeding. Regression analysis revealed that albumin (OR: 0.0311; p = 0.023), CRP (OR: 3.234; p = 0.034) and FABP2 levels (OR:1.000, p = 0.040), CP score (OR: 2.504; p = 0.016), CP creatinine score (OR: 2.366; p = 0.008), end-stage liver disease model (MELD), Na (OR: 1.283; p = 0.033), portal vein thrombosis (OR: 0.075; p = 0.008), hepatocellular carcinoma (OR: 0.060; p = 0.003) and encephalopathy (OR: 0.179; p = 0.045) were significantly associated with 6-week mortality.

Conclusions

Bacterial translocation and gut barrier impairment are directly related to the risk of variceal bleeding. Microbiota-modulating interventions and anti-endotoxin agents may be promising strategies to prevent variceal bleeding.

Impact of acute decompensation on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims

Organ failure in patients with acute decompensation (AD) is a defining characteristic of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the clinical features of AD during the long-term clinical course of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still poorly understood. This study aimed to clarify features and impact of AD/ACLF on the prognosis of patients after treatment for HCC.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled 556 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed with HCC, and analyses were conducted taking into account HCC treatment type, HCC stage, and presence or absence of cirrhosis.

Results

During follow-up, 299 patients with AD were hospitalized. AD occurrence is closely related to prognosis, regardless of the presence or absence of cirrhosis and HCC stage, and early-onset AD (within 90 days after HCC treatment) has negative impact on prognosis. In the intermediate-advanced–stage group, surgical resection had a positive impact on AD incidence post-treatment. After systemic therapy for HCC, renal impairment was the predictive factors for AD development. The 28/90-day mortality rate was higher among 41 cases (13.7%) with AD who exhibited ACLF as compared with cases without ACLF. AD without cirrhosis had similar ACLF incidence and short-term mortality, compared to AD with cirrhosis. The prognostic model using a decision-tree–based approach, which includes ACLF, bilirubin level, HCC progression, and MELD score is useful for predicting 90- or 28-day mortality after AD diagnosis.

Conclusions

Careful management of patients with HCC who are hospitalized with AD is necessary, considering ACLF, HCC progression, and liver function.

Integrated Relaxation Pressure Classification and Probe Positioning Failure Detection in High-Resolution Esophageal Manometry Using Machine Learning

High-resolution esophageal manometry is used for the study of esophageal motility disorders, with the help of catheters with up to 36 sensors. Color pressure topography plots are generated and analyzed and using the Chicago algorithm a final diagnosis is established. One of the main parameters in this algorithm is integrated relaxation pressure (IRP). The procedure is time consuming. Our aim was to firstly develop a machine learning based solution to detect probe positioning failure and to create a classifier to automatically determine whether the IRP is in the normal range or higher than the cut-off, based solely on the raw images. The first step was the preprocessing of the images, by finding the region of interest—the exact moment of swallowing. Afterwards, the images were resized and rescaled, so they could be used as input for deep learning models. We used the InceptionV3 deep learning model to classify the images as correct or failure in catheter positioning and to determine the exact class of the IRP. The accuracy of the trained convolutional neural networks was above 90% for both problems. This work is just the first step in fully automating the Chicago Classification, reducing human intervention.

Should we continue surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma and gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and variceal bleeding are among the most common causes of liver-related mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend HCC and gastroesophageal varices (GEV) surveillance in patients with HCV infection and cirrhosis. However, since the recent introduction of direct-acting antivirals, most patients with cirrhosis are now cured of their chronic HCV infection. As virological cure is considered to substantially reduce the risk of cirrhosis-related complications, this review discusses the current literature concerning the surveillance of HCC and GEV in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with a focus on the setting following sustained virological response.

Challenges and opportunities in the application of artificial intelligence in gastroenterology and hepatology

Artificial intelligence (AI) is an umbrella term used to describe a cluster of interrelated fields. Machine learning (ML) refers to a model that learns from past data to predict future data. Medicine and particularly gastroenterology and hepatology, are data-rich fields with extensive data repositories, and therefore fruitful ground for AI/ML-based software applications. In this study, we comprehensively review the current applications of AI/ML-based models in these fields and the opportunities that arise from their application. Specifically, we refer to the applications of AI/ML-based models in prevention, diagnosis, management, and prognosis of gastrointestinal bleeding, inflammatory bowel diseases, gastrointestinal premalignant and malignant lesions, other nonmalignant gastrointestinal lesions and diseases, hepatitis B and C infection, chronic liver diseases, hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. At the same time, we identify the major challenges that restrain the widespread use of these models in healthcare in an effort to explore ways to overcome them. Notably, we elaborate on the concerns regarding intrinsic biases, data protection, cybersecurity, intellectual property, liability, ethical challenges, and transparency. Even at a slower pace than anticipated, AI is infiltrating the healthcare industry. AI in healthcare will become a reality, and every physician will have to engage with it by necessity.

Development of a machine learning model to predict bleed in esophageal varices in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A proof of concept

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Risk stratification beyond the endoscopic classification of esophageal varices (EVs) to predict first episode of variceal bleeding (VB) is currently limited in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). We aimed to assess if machine learning (ML) could be used for predicting future VB more accurately.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, data from patients of cACLD with EVs, laboratory parameters and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were used to generate an extreme-gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to predict the risk of VB. The performance characteristics of ML and endoscopic classification were compared in internal and external validation cohorts. Bleeding rates were estimated in subgroups identified upon risk stratification with combination of model and endoscopic classification.

RESULTS

Eight hundred twenty-eight patients of cACLD with EVs, predominantly related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (28.6%), alcohol (23.7%) and hepatitis B (23.1%) were included, with 455 (55%) having the high-risk varices. Over a median follow-up of 24 (12-43) months, 163 patients developed VB. The accuracy of machine learning (ML) based model to predict future VB was 98.7 (97.4-99.5)%, 93.7 (88.8-97.2)%, and 85.7 (82.1-90.5)% in derivation (n = 497), internal validation (n = 149), and external validation (n = 182) cohorts, respectively, which was better than endoscopic classification [58.9 (55.5-62.3)%] alone. Patients stratified high risk on both endoscopy and model had 1-year and 3-year bleeding rates of 31-43% and 64-85%, respectively, whereas those stratified as low risk on both had 1-year and 3-year bleeding rates of 0-1.6% and 0-3.4%, respectively. Endoscopic classification and LSM were the major determinants of model's performance.

CONCLUSION

Application of ML model improved the performance of endoscopic stratification to predict VB in patients with cACLD with EVs.

Impact of acute kidney injury on mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

Background

The effect of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) using the recently proposed International Club of Ascites (ICA) criteria is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of AKI using the ICA criteria and factors associated with the outcomes in cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included data of cirrhotic patients with AVB from two centers in Korea. The association of the ICA criteria for AKI with 6-week mortality was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

In total, there were 546 episodes of AVB in 390 patients, of which 425 and 121 episodes were due to esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding, respectively. Moreover, 153 patients fulfilled the ICA criteria for AKI, and 64, 30, 39, and 20 patients were diagnosed with stages 1a, 1b, 2, and 3, respectively. Conversely, 97 patients developed AKI within 42 days as per the conventional criteria. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with ICA-AKI than in patients without ICA-AKI; the occurrence of ICA-AKI was an independent factor for predicting the 6-week mortality.

Conclusion

The ICA criteria could help diagnose renal dysfunction earlier, and presence of AKI is a predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01862-x.

Bedside risk-scoring model for predicting 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation for acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB.

METHODS

Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n = 200).

RESULTS

On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of beta-blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (P < 0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.001) cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.

The role of liver steatosis as measured with transient elastography and transaminases on hard clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19

Liver injury has been widely described in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to study the effect of liver biochemistry alterations, previous liver disease, and the value of liver elastography on hard clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. We conducted a single-center prospective observational study in 370 consecutive patients admitted for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and liver parameters and clinical events recorded during follow-up. Transient elastography [with Controlled Attenuation Parameter (CAP) measurements] was performed at admission in 98 patients. All patients were followed up until day 28 or death. The two main outcomes of the study were 28-day mortality and the occurrence of the composite endpoint intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were elevated at admission in 130 patients (35%) and 167 (45%) patients, respectively. Overall, 14.6% of patients presented the composite endpoint ICU and/or death. Neither ALT elevations, prior liver disease, liver stiffness nor liver steatosis (assessed with CAP) had any effect on outcomes. However, patients with abnormal baseline AST had a higher occurrence of the composite ICU/death (21% versus 9.5%, p = 0.002). Patients ⩾65 years and with an AST level > 50 U/ml at admission had a significantly higher risk of ICU and/or death than those with AST ⩽ 50 U/ml (50% versus 13.3%, p < 0.001). In conclusion, mild liver damage is prevalent in COVID-19 patients, but neither ALT elevation nor liver steatosis influenced hard clinical outcomes. Elevated baseline AST is a strong predictor of hard outcomes, especially in patients ⩾65 years.

Treatment of Acute Variceal Bleeding in 2021-When to Use Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts?

Variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis is associated with high mortality if not adequately managed. Treatment of acute variceal bleeding with adequate resuscitation maneuvers, restrictive transfusion policy, antibiotic prophylaxis, pharmacologic therapy, and endoscopic therapy is highly effective at controlling bleeding and preventing death. There is a subgroup of high-risk cirrhotic patients in whom this strategy fails, however, and who have a high-mortality rate. Placing a preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in these high-risk patients, as soon as possible after admission, to achieve early control of bleeding has proved not only to control bleeding but also to improve survival.

Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child-Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Optimal candidates for early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remain unclear. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that risk stratification using the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) may be useful to identify a subgroup at high risk of mortality or further bleeding that may benefit from early TIPS in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We analyzed the pooled individual data from two previous studies of 608 patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB who received standard treatment between 2010 and 2017 in China. The concordance index values of CLIF-C ADs for 6-week and 1-year mortality (0.715 and 0.708) were significantly better than those of active bleeding at endoscopy (0.633 [P < 0.001] and 0.556 [P < 0.001]) and other prognostic models. With X-tile software identifying an optimal cutoff value, patients were categorized as low risk (CLIF-C ADs <48), intermediate risk (CLIF-C ADs 48-56), and high risk (CLIF-C ADs >56), with a 5.6%, 16.8%, and 25.4% risk of 6-week death, respectively. Nevertheless, the performance of CLIF-C ADs for predicting a composite endpoint of 6-week death or further bleeding was not satisfactory (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.588). A nomogram incorporating components of CLIF-C ADs and albumin, platelet, active bleeding, and ascites significantly improved the prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.725).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, risk stratification using CLIF-C ADs identifies a subgroup with high risk of death that may derive survival benefit from early TIPS. With improved prediction accuracy for 6-week death or further bleeding, the data-driven nomogram may help to stratify patients in randomized trials. Future external validation of these findings in patients with different etiologies is required.

Diagnostic value of spleen stiffness by magnetic resonance elastography for prediction of esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE

To evaluate the diagnostic value of spleen stiffness (SS) via magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in predicting esophageal varices.

METHODS

From January 2016 to September 2018, we retrospectively reviewed 263 patients with esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) records and available spleen and liver stiffness (LS) values from MRE. Clinical information including the underlying diseases, endoscopic grade of esophageal varices (EV) and laboratory data were collected from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

In cirrhotic patients, MRE-SS was higher in those with EV than in those without. MRE-SS also showed significant association with EV in the multivariate analysis, whereas MRE-LS did not. The diagnostic performance of MRE-SS for EV in cirrhotic patients was demonstrated by the area under curve of 0.853 (cut-off value: 9.53 kPa, P < 0.001), 84.4% sensitivity and 73.7% specificity.

CONCLUSION

For prediction of EV in cirrhotic patients, MRE-SS is a useful non-invasive tool and it demonstrates better diagnostic performance than MRE-LS does.

Determinants of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and uncontrolled variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Failure to control oesophago-gastric variceal bleeding (OGVB) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are both important prognostic factors in cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to determine whether ACLF and its severity define the risk of death in OGVB and whether insertion of rescue transjugular intrahepatic shunt (TIPS) improves survival in patients with failure to control OGVB and ACLF.

METHODS

Data on 174 consecutive eligible patients, with failure to control OGVB between 2005 and 2015, were collected from a prospectively maintained intensive care unit registry. Rescue TIPS was defined as technically successful TIPS within 72 hours of presentation with failure to control OGVB. Cox-proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to explore the impact of ACLF and TIPS on survival in patients with failure to control OGVB.

RESULTS

Patients with ACLF (n = 119) were significantly older, had organ failures and higher white cell count than patients with acute decompensation (AD, n = 55). Mortality at 42-days and 1-year was significantly higher in patients with ACLF (47.9% and 61.3%) than in those with AD (9.1% and 12.7%, p <0.001), whereas there was no difference in the number of endoscopies and transfusion requirements between these groups. TIPS was inserted in 78 patients (AD 21 [38.2%]; ACLF 57 [47.8%]; p = 0.41). In ACLF, rescue TIPS insertion was an independent favourable prognostic factor for 42-day mortality. In contrast, rescue TIPS did not impact on the outcome of patients with AD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that in patients with failure to control OGVB, the presence and severity of ACLF determines the risk of 42-day and 1-year mortality. Rescue TIPS is associated with improved survival in patients with ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Variceal bleeding that is not controlled by initial endoscopy is associated with high risk of death. The results of this study showed that in the occurrence of failure of the liver and other organs defines the risk of death. In these patients, insertion of a shunt inside the liver to drain the portal vein improves survival.

Prediction of Important Factors for Bleeding in Liver Cirrhosis Disease Using Ensemble Data Mining Approach

The main motivation to conduct the study presented in this paper was the fact that due to the development of improved solutions for prediction risk of bleeding and thus a faster and more accurate diagnosis of complications in cirrhotic patients, mortality of cirrhosis patients caused by bleeding of varices fell at the turn in the 21th century. Due to this fact, an additional research in this field is needed. The objective of this paper is to develop one prediction model that determines most important factors for bleeding in liver cirrhosis, which is useful for diagnosis and future treatment of patients. To achieve this goal, authors proposed one ensemble data mining methodology, as the most modern in the field of prediction, for integrating on one new way the two most commonly used techniques in prediction, classification with precede attribute number reduction and multiple logistic regression for calibration. Method was evaluated in the study, which analyzed the occurrence of variceal bleeding for 96 patients from the Clinical Center of Nis, Serbia, using 29 data from clinical to the color Doppler. Obtained results showed that proposed method with such big number and different types of data demonstrates better characteristics than individual technique integrated into it.

A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP).

METHODS

This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in cirrhosis: An exhaustive critical update

More than five decades after it was originally conceptualized as rescue therapy for patients with intractable variceal bleeding, the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure continues to remain a focus of intense clinical and biomedical research. By the impressive reduction in portal pressure achieved by this intervention, coupled with its minimally invasive nature, TIPS has gained increasing acceptance in the treatment of complications of portal hypertension. The early years of TIPS were plagued by poor long-term patency of the stents and increased incidence of hepatic encephalopathy. Moreover, the diversion of portal flow after placement of TIPS often resulted in derangement of hepatic functions, which was occasionally severe. While the incidence of shunt dysfunction has markedly reduced with the advent of covered stents, hepatic encephalopathy and instances of early liver failure continue to remain a significant issue after TIPS. It has emerged over the years that careful selection of patients and diligent post-procedural care is of paramount importance to optimize the outcome after TIPS. The past twenty years have seen multiple studies redefining the role of TIPS in the management of variceal bleeding and refractory ascites while exploring its application in other complications of cirrhosis like hepatic hydrothorax, portal hypertensive gastropathy, ectopic varices, hepatorenal and hepatopulmonary syndromes, non-tumoral portal vein thrombosis and chylous ascites. It has also been utilized to good effect before extrahepatic abdominal surgery to reduce perioperative morbidity and mortality. The current article aims to review the updated literature on the status of TIPS in the management of patients with liver cirrhosis.

Early rebleeding increases mortality of variecal bleeders on secondary prophylaxis with β-blockers and ligation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Despite secondary-prophylaxis with β-blockers and endoscopic-variceal-ligation rebleeding is frequent, particularly within the first-6-weeks. Early-rebleeding may have greater impact on death-risk than late rebleeding, which may affect therapy. We assessed whether the influence of rebleeding on long-term survival of patients on secondary-prophylaxis is greater in patients with early-rebleeding.

METHODS

369 patients with cirrhosis were consecutively included once recovered from first variceal-bleeding. The impact of rebleeding on survival was investigated according to whether it occurred within 6-weeks (early-rebleeding) or later (late-rebleeding).

RESULTS

During 46-months of follow-up (IQR: 14-61), 45 patients (12%) had early-rebleeding, 74(20%) had late-rebleeding and 250(68%) had not rebleeding. Mortality risk was higher in early-rebleeding group vs. late-rebleeding (HR = 0.476, 95%CI = 0.318-0.712, p < 0.001) and was similar in late-rebleeding group vs. no-rebleeding (HR = 0.902, 95%CI = 0.749-1.086, p = 0.271). Adjusting for baseline risk-factors, early-rebleeding was independently associated with mortality-risk (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.02-2.45; p = 0.04). Child-Pugh&MELD scores improved at 3rd-4th-week only in patients without early-rebleeding (p < 0.05). Presence of ascites or encephalopathy, MELD-score>12 and HVPG>20 mmHg identified patients at risk of early-rebleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with early-rebleeding have higher risk of death than patients without rebleeding and even than those rebleeding later. Our results suggest that patients at risk of early rebleeding might benefit from preemptive therapies such as early-TIPS.

Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Acute Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background/Aims

The treatment outcomes and prognostic markers of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of AVB in HCC patients.

Methods

Cirrhotic patients with endoscopically confirmed AVB between 2007 and 2013 were enrolled in this prospective study. Prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Results

Among the 329 enrolled patients, 125 patients (38.0%) were diagnosed with HCC. The 6-week mortality rates of all enrolled AVB patients and the HCC subgroup were 14.9% and 26.4%. The 5-day treatment failure, 6-week mortality, cirrhosis-related complications, and duration of hospitalization were greater in HCC patients than in non-HCC patients (all p<0.05). In the HCC subgroup, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.145; p=0.001) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (C-D vs 0-B) (HR, 3.096; p=0.019) were independent predictors of 6-week mortality. Our study revealed that 85% of HCC patients with both a MELD score ≥15.5 and BCLC stage C-D died within 6 weeks, and the 6-week mortality risk was 21-fold higher in this group than in the group with a lower MELD score and earlier HCC stage (p<0.001).

Conclusions

The 5-day treatment failure and 6-week mortality rates were significantly higher among AVB patients with HCC than those without HCC. The MELD score and the presence and stage of HCC are strong predictors of 6-week mortality in patients with AVB.

Precision medicine in variceal bleeding: Are we there yet?

Variceal bleeding is one of the most feared complications of portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis because of its deleterious impact on prognosis. Adequate management of patients at risk of developing variceal bleeding includes the prevention of the first episode of variceal bleeding and rebleeding, and is crucial in modifying prognosis. The presence of clinically significant portal hypertension is the main factor determining the risk of development of varices and other liver-related decompensations; therefore, it should be carefully screened for and monitored. Treating patients with clinically significant portal hypertension based on their individual risk of portal hypertension-related bleeding undoubtedly improves prognosis. The evaluation of liver haemodynamics and liver function can stratify patients according to their risk of bleeding and are no question useful tools to guide therapy in an individualised manner. That said, recent data support the idea that tailoring therapy to patient characteristics may effectively impact on prognosis and increase survival in all clinical scenarios. This review will focus on evaluating the available evidence supporting the use of individual risk characteristics for clinical decision-making and their impact on clinical outcome and survival. In primary prophylaxis, identification and treatment of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension improves decompensation-free survival. In the setting of acute variceal bleeding, the risk of failure and rebleeding can be easily predicted, allowing for early escalation of treatment (i.e. pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt) which can improve survival in appropriate candidates. Stratifying the risk of recurrent variceal bleeding based on liver function and haemodynamic response to non-selective beta-blockers allows for tailored treatment, thereby increasing survival and avoiding adverse events.

Supervised Machine Learning in Oncology: A Clinician's Guide

The widespread adoption of electronic health records has resulted in an abundance of imaging and clinical information. New data-processing technologies have the potential to revolutionize the practice of medicine by deriving clinically meaningful insights from large-volume data. Among those techniques is supervised machine learning, the study of computer algorithms that use self-improving models that learn from labeled data to solve problems. One clinical area of application for supervised machine learning is within oncology, where machine learning has been used for cancer diagnosis, staging, and prognostication. This review describes a framework to aid clinicians in understanding and critically evaluating studies applying supervised machine learning methods. Additionally, we describe current studies applying supervised machine learning techniques to the diagnosis, prognostication, and treatment of cancer, with a focus on gastroenterological cancers and other related pathologies.

Portal vein thrombosis with superior mesenteric venous thrombosis: A case report and review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic variceal ligation is a first-line treatment for esophagogastric variceal bleeding patients. Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) with superior mesenteric venous thrombosis (MVT) after intensive endoscopic variceal band ligation is extremely rare.

CASE SUMMARY

We report a rare case developing PVT and superior MVT after intensive endoscopic variceal band ligation. The thrombosis disappeared after full anticoagulation therapy.

CONCLUSION

Our case suggested that, when ligation is required to treat esophagogastric variceal bleeding patients with a history of splenectomy caused by liver cirrhosis, especially those with chronic portal vein thrombosis, if ligation is required, too dense ligation and blocking entire blood flow should be avoided to prevent the development of PVT or MVT.

Machine Learning to Predict Outcomes in Patients with Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review

Risk stratification of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is recommended, but current risk assessment tools have variable performance. Machine learning (ML) has promise to improve risk assessment. We performed a systematic review to evaluate studies utilizing ML techniques for GIB. Bibliographic databases and conference abstracts were searched for studies with a population of overt GIB that used an ML algorithm with outcomes of mortality, rebleeding, hemostatic intervention, and/or hospital stay. Two independent reviewers screened titles and abstracts, reviewed full-text studies, and extracted data from included studies. Risk of bias was assessed with an adapted Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were the primary assessment of performance with AUC ≥ 0.80 predefined as an acceptable threshold of good performance. Fourteen studies with 30 assessments of ML models met inclusion criteria. No study had low risk of bias. Median AUC reported in validation datasets for predefined outcomes of mortality, intervention, or rebleeding was 0.84 (range 0.40-0.98). AUCs were higher with artificial neural networks (median 0.93, range 0.78-0.98) than other ML models (0.81, range 0.40-0.92). ML performed better than clinical risk scores (Glasgow-Blatchford, Rockall, Child-Pugh, MELD) for mortality in upper GIB. Limitations include heterogeneity of ML models, inconsistent comparisons of ML models with clinical risk scores, and high risk of bias. ML generally provided good-excellent prognostic performance in patients with GIB, and artificial neural networks tended to outperform other ML models. ML was better than clinical risk scores for mortality in upper GIB.

Development and Validation of a Novel Model for Outcomes in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with cirrhosis is associated with high mortality, ranging from 12 to 20% at 6 weeks. The existing prognostic models for AVB lack precision and require further validation.

AIM

In this prospective study, we aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model for AVB, and compared it with the existing models.

METHODS

We included 285 patients from March 2017 to November 2017 in the derivation cohort and 238 patients from December 2017 to June 2018 in the validation cohort. Two prognostic models were developed from derivation cohort by logistic regression analysis. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The 6-week mortality was 22.1% in derivation cohort and 22.3% in validation cohort, P = 0.866. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) [odds ratio (OR) 1.106] and encephalopathy (E) (OR 4.658) in one analysis and Child-Pugh score (OR 1.379) and serum creatinine (OR 1.474) in another analysis were significantly associated with 6-week mortality. MELD-E model (AUROC 0.792) was superior to Child-creatinine model (AUROC) in terms of discrimination. The MELD-E model had highest AUROC; as compared to other models-MELD score (AUROC 0.751, P = 0.036), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.737, P = 0.037), D'Amico model (AUROC 0.716, P = 0.014) and Augustin model (AUROC 0.739, P = 0.018) in derivation cohort. In validation cohort, the discriminatory performance of MELD-E model (AUROC 0.805) was higher as compared to other models including MELD score (AUROC 0.771, P = 0.048), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.746, P = 0.011), Augustin model (AUROC 0.753, P = 0.039) and D'Amico model (AUROC 0.736, P = 0.021).

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients with AVB, the novel MELD-Encephalopathy model predicts 6 weeks mortality with higher accuracy than the existing prognostic models.

Identifying optimal candidates for early TIPS among patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding: a multicentre observational study

OBJECTIVES

Early placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has been shown to improve survival in high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B plus active bleeding at endoscopy or Child-Pugh C 10-13) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB). However, early TIPS criteria may overestimate the mortality risk in a significant proportion of patients, and the survival benefit conferred by early TIPS in such patients has been questioned. Alternative criteria have been proposed to refine the criteria used to identify candidates for early TIPS. Nevertheless, the true survival benefit provided (or not) by early TIPS compared with standard treatment in the different risk categories has not been investigated in specifically designed comparative studies.

DESIGN

We collected data on 1425 consecutive patients with cirrhosis and AVB who were admitted to 12 university hospitals in China between December 2010 and June 2016. Of these, 206 patients received early TIPS, and 1219 patients received standard treatment. The Fine and Gray competing risk regression model was used to compare the outcomes between the two groups that were stratified based on the currently available risk stratification systems after adjusting for liver disease severity and other potential confounders.

RESULTS

Overall, early TIPS was associated with an 80% relative risk reduction (RRR) in mortality at 6 weeks (adjusted HR=0.20; 95% CI: 0.10 to 044; p<0.001) and 51% RRR at 1 year (adjusted HR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.32 to 0.73; p<0.001) compared with standard treatment. In stratification analyses, the RRRs in mortality did not significantly differ among the risk categories. However, the absolute risk reductions (ARRs) of mortality were more pronounced in high-risk patients. The ARRs at 6 weeks were -2.1%, -10.2% and -32.4% in Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≤11, 12-18 and ≥19 patients and were -1.5%, -9.1% and -23.2% in Child-Pugh A, B and C patients, respectively (interaction tests, p<0.001 for both criteria). The ARRs for mortality at 1 year were -1.7%, -5.4% and -32.7% in MELD ≤11, 12-18 and ≥19 patients, respectively, and -3.6%, -5.2% and -20.3% in Child-Pugh A, B and C patients, respectively (interaction tests, p<0.001 for both criteria). After adjusting for liver disease severity and other potential confounders, a survival benefit was observed in MELD ≥19 or Child-Pugh C patients but not in MELD ≤11 or Child-Pugh A patients. In MELD 12-18 patients, a survival benefit was observed within 6 weeks but not at 1 year. In Child-Pugh B patients, a survival benefit was observed in those with active bleeding but not those without active bleeding. However, the evaluation of active bleeding was associated with a high interobserver variability. Furthermore, early TIPS was associated with a significantly reduced incidence of failure to control bleeding or rebleeding and new or worsening ascites, without increasing the risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy.

CONCLUSIONS

Early TIPS was associated with improved survival in patients with MELD ≥19 or Child-Pugh C cirrhosis but not in patients with MELD ≤11 or Child-Pugh A cirrhosis. For MELD 12-18 or Child-Pugh B patients, future studies addressing optimal selection criteria for early TIPS remain highly warranted.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System That Includes Corrected QT Interval for Risk Analysis of Patients With Cirrhosis and Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The electrocardiographic QT interval frequently is prolonged in patients with cirrhosis. Acute gastrointestinal bleeding further prolongs corrected QT (QTc) in patients with cirrhosis, which has been associated with an increased risk of death within 6 weeks. We aimed to confirm these findings and develop a mortality risk index that incorporates QTc.

METHODS

We collected data from 274 patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause admitted to a hospital in Bologna, Italy, from January 2001 through December 2012 (training set). We used logistic regression analysis to identify patient factors associated with death within 6 weeks (6-week mortality). We validated our findings by using data from 200 patients with cirrhosis and gastrointestinal bleeding treated at 2 separate hospitals in Italy, from 2001 through 2016 and 2007 through 2012. Our primary aim was to confirm the prognostic effects of prolonged QTc in a large population of patients and develop a 6-week mortality risk score for acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause that incorporates the QTc interval.

RESULTS

In the training set, QTc greater than 456 ms, the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score, previous bleeding, and serum albumin concentration were associated independently with 6-week mortality. We combined these parameters to create a risk scoring system that we named MELD-Na acute gastrointestinal bleeding (MELDNa-AGIB). In the validation set, the MELDNa-AGIB identified patients who died within 6 weeks with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.888; this value was higher than that of the MELD score (AUROC, 0.838; P = .031), MELD score with updated calibration (AUROC, 0.837; P = .029), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (AUROC, 0.789; P = .004), D'Amico score (AUROC, 0.761; P = .003), and Augustin score (AUROC, 0.792; P = .001), with a net reclassification improvement better than the MELD-Na score (0.266; P = .045). In calibration, the MELDNa-AGIB produced a high score in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .947), which was superior to that of MELD-Na (P = .146). In the training set, only 6.3% of patients with MELDNa-AGIB scores of 4 or less died within 6 weeks. Among patients with a scores of 9, 16, and 25 or higher, 15.5%, 41.5%, and 81% or more patients died within 6 weeks, respectively. The probability of survival progressively and significantly decreased with increasing scores in the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed QTc as an independent predictor of 6-week mortality in a large population of patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding. The combination of QTc, MELD-Na, previous bleeding, and serum albumin (the MELDNa-AGIB score) accurately determines the risk of 6-week mortality, providing timely identification of patients at very high risk of death.

Comparison of various prognostic scores in variceal and non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various prognostic scores like Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS), modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (mGBS), full Rockall score (FRS) including endoscopic findings, clinical Rockall score (CRS), and albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), mental status, systolic blood pressure, age >65 (AIMS65) are used for risk stratification in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The utility of these scores in variceal UGIB (VUGIB) is not well defined. In this prospective study, we aimed to assess the performance of these scores in patients with non-variceal (NVUGIB) and VUGIB.

METHODS

We included 1011 patients (during March 2017 and August 2018) including 439 with NVUGIB and 572 VUGIB. Performance of GBS, mGBS, FRS, CRS, and AIMS65 for various outcome measures was analyzed using the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The accuracy of prognostic scores in predicting the composite outcome including the need of hospital-based intervention and 42-day mortality was higher in NVUGIB as compared with VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.641 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.669 vs. 0.625; GBS: 0.719 vs. 0.587; mGBS: 0.711 vs. 0.594; AIMS65: 0.567 vs. 0.548. GBS and mGBS at a cut-off score of 1 had the highest negative predictive value, 91.7% and 91.3%, respectively, for predicting composite outcome in NVUGIB. Similarly, these scores had better accuracy for predicting 42-day rebleeding in NVUGIB as compared to VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.680 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.698 vs. 0.565; GBS: 0.661 vs. 0.543; mGBS: 0.627 vs. 0.540; AIMS65: 0.695 vs. 0.606.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic scores such as CRS, FRS, GBS, mGBS, and AIMS65 predict the need for hospital-based management, rebleeding, and mortality better among patients with NVUGIB than VUGIB.

C-reactive Protein Can Predict Patients with Cirrhosis at a High Risk of Early Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

Objective The aim of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of early mortality after acute esophageal variceal bleeding by measuring the C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 154 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Differences between categorical variables were assessed by the chi-square test. Continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses consisting of clinical laboratory parameters were performed to identify risk factors associated with the 6-week mortality. The discriminative ability and the best cut-off value were assessed by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Child-Pugh C patients showed a significantly higher 6-week mortality than Child-Pugh A or B patients (38% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). The 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients was associated with the age (p<0.0001), etiology of cirrhosis (p=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.0003), portal vein thrombosis (p=0.005), baseline creatinine (p=0.0001), albumin (p=0.001), white blood cell count (p=0.038), baseline CRP [p=0.0004; area under the ROC (AUROC)=0.765; optimum cut-off value at 1.30 mg/dL] and bacterial infection (p=0.019). We determined that CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL was an independent predictor for 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients [odds ratio (OR)=8.789; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.080-47.496; p=0.003], along with a creatinine level of 0.71 mg/dL (OR=17.628; 95% CI: 2.349-384.426; p=0.004) (73% mortality if CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL vs. 19% if CRP<1.30 mg/dL, p<0.0001). Conclusion In Child-Pugh C patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, a baseline CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL can help identify patients with an increased risk of mortality.

Preemptive-TIPS Improves Outcome in High-Risk Variceal Bleeding: An Observational Study

Patients admitted with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) and Child-Pugh C score (CP-C) or Child-Pugh B plus active bleeding at endoscopy (CP-B+AB) are at high risk for treatment failure, rebleeding, and mortality. A preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (p-TIPS) has been shown to improve survival in these patients, but its use in clinical practice has been challenged and not routinely incorporated. The present study aimed to further validate the role of preemptive TIPS in a large number of high-risk patients. This multicenter, international, observational study included 671 patients from 34 centers admitted for AVB and high risk of treatment failure. Patients were managed according to current guidelines, and use of drugs and endoscopic therapy (D+E) or p-TIPS was based on individual center policy. p-TIPS in the setting of AVB is associated with a lower mortality in CP-C patients compared with D+E (1 year mortality 22% vs. 47% in D+E group; P = 0.002). Mortality rate in CP-B+AB patients was low, and p-TIPS did not improve it. In CP-C and CP-B+AB patients, p-TIPS reduced treatment failure and rebleeding (1-year cumulative incidence function probability of remaining free of the composite endpoint: 92% vs. 74% in the D+E group; P = 0.017) and development of de novo or worsening of previous ascites without increasing rates of hepatic encephalopathy. Conclusion: p-TIPS must be the treatment of choice in CP-C patients with AVB. Because of the strong benefit in preventing further bleeding and ascites, p-TIPS could be a good treatment strategy for CP-B+AB patients.

A simplified prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major cause of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality predictors and develop a new simple prognostic model using easily verified factors at admission in AVB patients.

METHODS

Between January 2009 and May 2015, 333 consecutive patients with AVB were included. A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. We compared the new model to existing models of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores.

RESULTS

The 6-week overall mortality rate was 12.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, and the international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model's AUROC was 0.834, which was significantly higher than that of MELD (0.764) or Child-Pugh scores (0.699). Two external validation studies showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently higher than 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality in patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Our system can be used to identify high risk AVB patients.

Impact of risk factors on functional status in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Objectives

To survey by measuring patient’s functional status which is crucial when end-stage renal disease patients begin a dialysis program. The influence of the disease on patients can be examined by the measurement of Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scores, together with a quality of life survey, and clinical variables.

Methods

The details for the dataset in the study were collected from patients receiving regular hemodialysis (HD) in one hospital, which were available retrospectively for 1166 patients during the 5-year study period. KPS scores were applied for quantifying functional status. To identify risk factors for functional status, clinical factors including demographics, laboratory data, and HD vintage were selected. This study applied a classification and regression tree approach (CART) and logistic regression to determine risk factors on functional impairment among HD patients.

Results

Ten risk factors were identified by CART and regression model (age, primary kidney disease subclass, treatment years, hemoglobin, albumin, creatinine, phosphorus, intact parathyroid hormone, ferritin, and cardiothoracic ratio). The results of logistic regression with selected interaction models showed older age or higher hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, and glucose levels could significantly increase the log-odds of obtaining low KPS scores at in-person visits.

Conclusions

In interaction results, the combination of older age with higher albumin level and higher creatinine level with longer HD treatment years could significantly decrease the log-odds of a low KPS score assessment during in-person visits. Age, hemoglobin, albumin, urea, creatinine levels, primary kidney disease subclass, and HD duration are the major determinants for functional status in HD patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40001-017-0298-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Incrementally Expandable Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts: Single-Center Experience

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term safety and efficacy of a small-diameter expandable transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in the management of portal hypertension.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included 28 patients (12 women and 16 men; mean age, 56.9 years) who underwent small-diameter expandable TIPS creation between 2008 and 2010 for refractory ascites (n = 15; mean [± SD] model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score, 15.5 ± 5.3) or gastrointestinal variceal bleeding (n = 13; mean MELD score, 15.2 ± 8.4). An expandable TIPS was created by deploying a covered stent inside a balloon expandable stent. For patients with recurrent symptoms, TIPS adjustment was made by balloon expandable stent balloon dilation. The TIPS diameter was defined as the diameter of the final angioplasty balloon. TIPS patency and efficacy and the rate of post-TIPS hepatic encephalopathy were evaluated.

RESULTS

The median diameter of the initial TIPS was 8 mm in the group with variceal bleeding compared with 6 mm in the group with ascites (p = 0.003). The primary patency rate at 1 and 5 years was 90.8% and 73.3%, respectively. Eighty percent of patients with ascites required no or less-frequent large-volume paracentesis. The clinical success rate for patients with acute variceal bleeding was 92.3%. Six patients with ascites (initial TIPS diameter, 6 mm) and two patients with variceal bleeding (initial diameter, 6 mm and 8 mm) required subsequent TIPS adjustment. Of the 22 patients with no prior history of enecphalophy, seven patients (31.8%) experienced new hepatic encephalopathy within 90 days.

CONCLUSION

A small-diameter expandable TIPS is technically feasible and safe, with efficacy falling within the range of that of conventional TIPS. This technique offers the possibility of individualizing the degree of portal decompression.

Acute kidney injury predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The International Club of Ascites (ICA) recently proposed a new definition of acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhotic patients. The study evaluated the ICA-AKI criteria and their association with the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding (GVB).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using prospective database of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with the first presentation of acute GVB at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from April 2007 to December 2010 was performed to evaluate the development of AKI. The study used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the association of ICA-AKI criteria and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 113 patients, 46 (41%) fulfilled the ICA-AKI criteria and most (70%) initially had stage 1 AKI. Child-Pugh score, systemic blood pressure at admission, and number of blood units transfused before endoscopy were independent predictors of AKI. Among patients with AKI, 30% progressed to higher stages with more advanced liver disease, lower serum sodium, more units of blood transfusion, higher frequency of infection, and higher serum creatinine levels at diagnosis of AKI. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with AKI than in patients without AKI (37% vs 3%, P < 0.001), and AKI stages were independent predictors of 3-month survival (93% in patients without AKI, 73% in stage 1, and 30% in stages 2 and 3, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of AKI as defined by the ICA criteria is common in cirrhotic patients with acute GVB. The presence of AKI was associated with much higher 6-week mortality, and the stages of AKI further predicted 3-month survival.