Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

Preoperative Hepatology and Primary Care Visits Improve Postoperative Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Surgery

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cirrhosis patients are at increased risk for postoperative complications. It remains unclear whether preoperative nonsurgical clinician visits improve postoperative outcomes. We assessed the impact of preoperative primary care physician (PCP) and/or gastroenterologist/hepatologist (GI/Hep) visits on postoperative mortality in cirrhosis patients undergoing surgery and explored differences in medication changes and paracentesis rates as potential mediators.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of cirrhosis patients in the Veterans Health Administration who underwent surgery between 2008 and 2016. We compared 1982 patients with preoperative PCP and/or GI/Hep visits with 1846 propensity-matched patients without preoperative visits. We used Cox regression and Fine and Gray competing risk regression to evaluate the association between preoperative visit type and postoperative mortality at 6 months.

RESULTS

Patients with preoperative GI/Hep and PCP visits had a 45% lower hazard of postoperative mortality compared with those without preoperative visits (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35-0.87). A smaller effect size was noted with GI/Hep preoperative visit alone (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.48-0.99) or PCP visit alone (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53-0.93). Patients with preoperative PCP/GI/Hep visits were more likely to have diuretics, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis prophylaxis, and hepatic encephalopathy medications newly initiated and/or dose adjusted and more likely to receive preoperative paracentesis as compared with those without preoperative visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative PCP/GI/Hep visits are associated with a reduced risk of postoperative mortality with the greatest risk reduction observed in those with both PCP and GI/Hep visits. This synergistic effect highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach in the preoperative care of cirrhosis patients.

Artificial intelligence-based evaluation of prognosis in cirrhosis

Cirrhosis represents a significant global health challenge, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates that severely impact human health. Timely and precise prognostic assessments of liver cirrhosis are crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality rates as they enable physicians to identify high-risk patients and implement early interventions. This paper features a thorough literature review on the prognostic assessment of liver cirrhosis, aiming to summarize and delineate the present status and constraints associated with the application of traditional prognostic tools in clinical settings. Among these tools, the Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring systems are predominantly utilized. However, their accuracy varies significantly. These systems are generally suitable for broad assessments but lack condition-specific applicability and fail to capture the risks associated with dynamic changes in patient conditions. Future research in this field is poised for deep exploration into the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with routine clinical and multi-omics data in patients with cirrhosis. The goal is to transition from static, unimodal assessment models to dynamic, multimodal frameworks. Such advancements will not only improve the precision of prognostic tools but also facilitate personalized medicine approaches, potentially revolutionizing clinical outcomes.

A modified Hospital Frailty Risk Score for patients with cirrhosis undergoing abdominal operations

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Existing tools for perioperative risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis do not incorporate measures of comorbidity. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) is a widely used measure of comorbidity burden in administrative dataset analyses. However, it is not specific to patients with cirrhosis, and application of this index is limited by its complexity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Adult patients with cirrhosis who underwent nontransplant abdominal operations were identified from the National Inpatient Sample, 2016-2018. Adjusted associations between HFRS and in-hospital mortality and length of stay were computed with logistic and Poisson regression. Lasso regularization was used to identify the components of the HFRS most predictive of mortality and develop a simplified index, the cirrhosis-HFRS. Of 10,714 patients with cirrhosis, the majority were male, the median age was 62 years, and 32% of operations were performed electively. HFRS was associated with an increased risk of both in-hospital mortality (OR=6.42; 95% CI: 4.93, 8.36) and length of stay (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=1.79; 95% CI: 1.72, 1.88), with adjustment. Using lasso, we found that a subset of 12 of the 109 ICD-10 codes within the HFRS resulted in superior prediction of mortality in this patient population (AUC = 0.89 vs. 0.79, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

While the 109-component HFRS was associated with adverse surgical outcomes, 12 components accounted for much of the association between the HFRS and mortality. We developed the cirrhosis-HFRS, a tool that demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality and more precisely reflects the specific comorbidity pattern of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis undergoing general surgery procedures.

Surgical Considerations in Portal Hypertension

This review provides an in-depth exploration of portal hypertension (PH) and its implications in various surgical procedures. The prevalence of clinically significant PH is 50% to 60% in compensated cirrhosis and 100% in decompensated cirrhosis. The feasibility and safety of hepatic and nonhepatic surgical procedures in patients with PH has been shown. Adequate preoperative risk assessment and optimization of PH are integral parts of patient assessment. The occurrence of adverse outcomes after surgery has decreased over time in this specific population, due to the development of techniques and improved perioperative multidisciplinary care.

Preoperative risk evaluation and optimization for patients with liver disease

The prevalence of liver disease is rising and more patients with liver disease are considered for surgery each year. Liver disease poses many potential complications to surgery; therefore, assessing perioperative risk and optimizing a patient's liver health is necessary to decrease perioperative risk. Multiple scoring tools exist to help quantify perioperative risk and can be used in combination to best educate patients prior to surgery. In this review, we go over the various scoring tools and provide a guide for clinicians to best assess and optimize perioperative risk based on the etiology of liver disease.

Position paper on perioperative management and surgical risk in the patient with cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Management of the patient with cirrhosis of the liver that requires surgical treatment has been relatively unexplored. In Mexico, there is currently no formal stance or expert recommendations to guide clinical decision-making in this context.

AIMS

The present position paper reviews the existing evidence on risks, prognoses, precautions, special care, and specific management or procedures for patients with cirrhosis that require surgical interventions or invasive procedures. Our aim is to provide recommendations by an expert panel, based on the best published evidence, and consequently ensure timely, quality, efficient, and low-risk care for this specific group of patients.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven recommendations were developed that address preoperative considerations, intraoperative settings, and postoperative follow-up and care.

CONCLUSIONS

The assessment and care of patients with cirrhosis that require major surgical or invasive procedures should be overseen by a multidisciplinary team that includes the anesthesiologist, hepatologist, gastroenterologist, and clinical nutritionist. With respect to decompensated patients, a nephrology specialist may be required, given that kidney function is also a parameter involved in the prognosis of these patients.

Surgical risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis

Individuals with cirrhosis experience higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population, irrespective of the type or scope of surgery. This increased risk is attributed to adverse effects of liver disease, encompassing coagulation dysfunction, altered metabolism of anesthesia and sedatives, immunologic dysfunction, hemorrhage related to varices, malnutrition and frailty, impaired wound healing, as well as diminished portal blood flow, overall hepatic circulation, and hepatic oxygen supply during surgical procedures. Therefore, a frequent clinical dilemma is whether surgical interventions should be pursued in patients with cirrhosis. Several risk scores are widely used to aid in the decision-making process, each with specific advantages and limitations. This review aims to discuss the preoperative risk factors in patients with cirrhosis, describe and compare surgical risk assessment models used in everyday practice, provide insights into the surgical risk according to the type of surgery and present recommendations for optimizing those with cirrhosis for surgical procedures. As the primary focus is on currently available risk models, the review describes the predictive value of each model, highlighting its specific advantages and limitations. Furthermore, for models that do not account for the type of surgical procedure to be performed, the review suggests incorporating both patient-related and surgery-related risks into the decision-making process. Finally, we provide an algorithm for the preoperative assessment of patients with cirrhosis before elective surgery as well as guidance perioperative management.

Resuscitation and Preparation of the Emergency General Surgery Patient

Traditionally, the workflow surrounding a general surgery patient allows for a period of evaluation and optimization of underlying medical issues to allow for risk modification; however, in the emergency, this optimization period is largely condensed because of its time-dependent nature. Because the lack of optimization can lead to complications, the ability to rapidly resuscitate the patient, proceed to procedural intervention to control the situation, and manage common medical comorbidities is paramount. This article provides an overview on these subjects.

Liver Transplantation for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) With or Without Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD)-A European Society of Organ Transplantation (ESOT) Consensus Statement

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is the classical hepatobiliary manifestation of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and a lead indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the western world. In this article, we present a Consensus Statement on LT practice, developed by a dedicated Guidelines' Taskforce of the European Society of Organ Transplantation (ESOT). The overarching goal is to provide practical guidance on commonly debated topics, including indications and timing of LT, management of bile duct stenosis in patients on the transplant waiting list, technical aspects of transplantation, immunosuppressive strategies post-transplant, timing and extension of intestinal resection and futility criteria for re-transplantation.

Evolution of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients with cirrhosis

The perception of high surgical risk among patients with cirrhosis has resulted in a long-standing reluctance to operate. Risk stratification tools, first implemented over 60 years ago, have attempted to assess mortality risk among cirrhotic patients and ensure the best possible outcomes for this difficult to treat cohort. Existing postoperative risk prediction tools including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) provide some prediction of risk in counselling patients and their families but tend to overestimate surgical risk. More personalised prediction algorithms such as the Mayo Risk Score and VOCAL-Penn score that incorporate surgery-specific risks have demonstrated a significant improvement in prognostication and can ultimately aid multidisciplinary team determination of potential risks. The development of future risk scores will need to incorporate, first and foremost, predictive efficacy, but perhaps just as important is the feasibility and usability by front-line healthcare professionals to ensure timely and efficient prediction of risk for cirrhotic patients.

Assessing the risk of surgery in patients with cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased perioperative risk relative to patients without cirrhosis. This is related to numerous cirrhosis-specific factors, including severity of liver disease, impaired synthetic function, sarcopenia and malnutrition, and portal hypertension, among others. Nonhepatic comorbidities and surgery-related factors further modify the surgical risk, adding to the complexity of the preoperative assessment. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiological contributors to surgical risk in cirrhosis, key elements of the preoperative risk assessment, and application of risk prediction tools including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Mayo Risk Score, and the VOCAL-Penn Score. We also detail the limitations of current approaches to risk assessment and highlight areas for future research.

Clinical Guideline on Perioperative Management of Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

(1) Background: Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are living longer with more comorbidities because of improved medical and surgical management. However, patients with ACLD are at increased risk of perioperative morbidity and mortality; (2) Methods: We conducted a comprehensive review of the literature to support a narrative clinical guideline about the assessment of mortality risk and management of perioperative morbidity in patients with ACLD undergoing surgical procedures; (3) Results: Slight data exist to guide the perioperative management of patients with ACLD, and most recommendations are based on case series and expert opinion. The severity of liver dysfunction, portal hypertension, cardiopulmonary and renal comorbidities, and complexity of surgery and type (elective versus emergent) are predictors of perioperative morbidity and mortality. Expert multidisciplinary teams are necessary to evaluate and manage ACLD before, during, and after surgical procedures; (4) Conclusions: This clinical practice document updates the available data and recommendations to optimize the management of patients with advanced chronic liver disease who undergo surgical procedures.

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.

RESULTS

A total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.

Practice-Changing Updates in Perioperative Medicine Literature 2020-2021: A Systematic Review

Recent literature published in a variety of multidisciplinary journals has significantly influenced perioperative patient care. Distilling and synthesizing the clinically important literature can be challenging. This review summarizes practice-changing articles in perioperative medicine from the years 2020 and 2021. Embase, Ovid, and EBM reviews databases were queried from January 2020 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria were original research, systematic review, meta-analysis, and important guidelines. Exclusion criteria were conference abstracts, case reports, letters, protocols, pediatric and obstetric articles, and cardiac surgery literature. Two authors reviewed each reference using the Distiller SR systematic review software (Evidence Partners Inc., Ottawa, Ont., Canada). A modified Delphi technique was used to identify 9 practice-changing articles. We identified another 13 articles for tabular summaries, as they were relevant to an internist's perioperative evaluation of a patient. Articles were selected to highlight the clinical implications of new evidence in each field. We have also pointed out limitations of each study and clinical populations where they are not applicable.

Modeling Optimal Clinical Thresholds for Elective Abdominal Hernia Repair in Patients With Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Patients with cirrhosis have increased risk of postoperative mortality. Several models have been developed to estimate this risk; however, current risk estimation scores cannot compare surgical risk with the risk of not operating.

OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical optimal thresholds to favor operative or nonoperative management for a common cirrhosis surgical scenario, the symptomatic abdominal hernia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a Markov cohort decision analytical modeling study evaluating elective surgery vs nonoperative management for a symptomatic abdominal hernia in a patient with cirrhosis. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from the literature and from data using an established cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Health Administration. Participants included patients who were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia. Data were obtained from patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January 1 to May 1, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each pathway and iterated over baseline model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores ranging from 6 to 25. Markov models were cycled over a 5-year time horizon.

RESULTS

A total 2740 patients with cirrhosis (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 2699 [98.5%] men) were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia; 1752 patients (63.9%) did not receive surgery. The median (IQR) follow-up was 42.1 (25.3-70.0) months. Using this cohort to estimate the mortality risk of operative and nonoperative pathways, an initial MELD-Na threshold of 21.3 points, below which surgery was associated with maximized QALYs was identified. Nonoperative management was associated with increased QALYs above this MELD-Na threshold. Although more patients experienced death with a surgical treatment decision across all initial MELD-Na values, this was counterbalanced by increased time spent in a resolved hernia state associated with increased utility. Model results were sensitive to the probability of hernia recurrence and hernia incarceration and utility decrement in the symptomatic hernia state.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This decision analytical model study found that elective surgical treatment for a symptomatic abdominal hernia was favored even in the setting of relatively high MELD-Na scores. Patient symptoms, hernia-specific characteristics, and surgeon and center expertise may potentially impact the optimal strategy, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.