Optimal control of a fractional order epidemic model with application to human respiratory syncytial virus infection

Modeling blood alcohol concentration using fractional differential equations based on the ψ‐Caputo derivative

We propose a novel dynamical model for blood alcohol concentration that incorporates ‐Caputo fractional derivatives. Using the generalized Laplace transform technique, we successfully derive an analytic solution for both the alcohol concentration in the stomach and the alcohol concentration in the blood of an individual. These analytical formulas provide us a straightforward numerical scheme, which demonstrates the efficacy of the ‐Caputo derivative operator in achieving a better fit to real experimental data on blood alcohol levels available in the literature. In comparison with existing classical and fractional models found in the literature, our model outperforms them significantly. Indeed, by employing a simple yet nonstandard kernel function , we are able to reduce the error by more than half, resulting in an impressive gain improvement of 59%.

A computational stochastic procedure for solving the epidemic breathing transmission system

This work provides numerical simulations of the nonlinear breathing transmission epidemic system using the proposed stochastic scale conjugate gradient neural networks (SCGGNNs) procedure. The mathematical model categorizes the breathing transmission epidemic model into four dynamics based on a nonlinear stiff ordinary differential system: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. Three different cases of the model are taken and numerically presented by applying the stochastic SCGGNNs. An activation function 'log-sigmoid' uses twenty neurons in the hidden layers. The precision of SCGGNNs is obtained by comparing the proposed and database solutions. While the negligible absolute error is performed around 10-06 to 10-07, it enhances the accuracy of the scheme. The obtained results of the breathing transmission epidemic system have been provided using the training, verification, and testing procedures to reduce the mean square error. Moreover, the exactness and capability of the stochastic SCGGNNs are approved through error histograms, regression values, correlation tests, and state transitions.

Coefficient identification in a SIS fractional-order modelling of economic losses in the propagation of COVID-19

A fractional-order SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) model with time-dependent coefficients is used to analyse some effects of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). This generalized model is suitable for describing the COVID dynamics since it does not presume permanent immunity after contagion. The fractional derivative activates the memory property of the dynamics of the susceptible and infectious population time series. A coefficient identification inverse problem is posed, which consists of reconstructing the time-varying transmission and recovery rates, which are of paramount importance in practice for both medics and politicians. The inverse problem is reduced to a minimization problem, which is solved in a least squares sense. The iterative predictor-corrector algorithm reconstructs the time-dependent parameters in a piecewise-linear fashion. The economic losses emerging from social distancing using the calibrated model are also discussed. A comparison between the results obtained by the classical model and the fractional-order model is included, which is validated by ample tests with synthetic and real data.

Numerical Fractional Optimal Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Octave/MATLAB

In this article, we develop a simple mathematical GNU Octave/MATLAB code that is easy to modify for the simulation of mathematical models governed by fractional-order differential equations, and for the resolution of fractional-order optimal control problems through Pontryagin’s maximum principle (indirect approach to optimal control). For this purpose, a fractional-order model for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is considered. The model is an improvement of one first proposed by the authors in 2018. The initial value problem associated with the RSV infection fractional model is numerically solved using Garrapa’s fde12 solver and two simple methods coded here in Octave/MATLAB: the fractional forward Euler’s method and the predict-evaluate-correct-evaluate (PECE) method of Adams–Bashforth–Moulton. A fractional optimal control problem is then formulated having treatment as the control. The fractional Pontryagin maximum principle is used to characterize the fractional optimal control and the extremals of the problem are determined numerically through the implementation of the forward-backward PECE method. The implemented algorithms are available on GitHub and, at the end of the paper, in appendixes, both for the uncontrolled initial value problem as well as for the fractional optimal control problem, using the free GNU Octave computing software and assuring compatibility with MATLAB.

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic by a two-side fractional-order compartmental model

Global efforts are focused on discussing effective measures for minimizing the impact of COVID-19 on global community. It is clear that the ongoing pandemic of this virus caused an immense threat to public health and economic development. Mathematical models with real data simulations are powerful tools that can identify key factors of pandemic and improve control or mitigation strategies. Compared with integer-order and left-hand side fractional models, two-side fractional models can better capture the state of pandemic spreading. In this paper, two-side fractional models are first proposed to qualitative and quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. A basic framework are given for the prediction and analysis of infectious diseases by these types of models. By means of asymptotic stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, basic reproduction number R₀ can be obtained, which is helpful for estimating the severity of an outbreak qualitatively. Sensitivity analysis of R₀ is performed to identify and rank key epidemiological parameters. Based on the real data of the United States, numerical tests reveal that the model with both left-hand side fractional derivative and right-hand side fractional integral terms has a better forecast ability for the epidemic trend in the next ten days. Our extensive computational results also quantitatively reveal that non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as isolation, stay at home, strict control of social distancing, and rapid testing can play an important role in preventing the pandemic of the disease. Thus, the two-side fractional models are proposed in this paper can successfully capture the change rule of COVID-19, which provide a strong tool for understanding and analyzing the trend of the outbreak.

On the fractional SIRD mathematical model and control for the transmission of COVID-19: The first and the second waves of the disease in Iran and Japan

In this paper, a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model is presented with Caputo derivative for the transmission of COVID-19 between humans. We calculate the steady-states of the system and discuss their stability. We also discuss the existence and uniqueness of a non-negative solution for the system under study. Additionally, we obtain an approximate response by implementing the fractional Euler method. Next, we investigate the first and the second waves of the disease in Iran and Japan; then we give a prediction concerning the second wave of the disease. We display the numerical simulations for different derivative orders in order to evaluate the efficacy of the fractional concept on the system behaviors. We also calculate the optimal control of the system and display its numerical simulations.

Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal

A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19 that occurred in Portugal from December 2020 to February 2021, and that has surpassed all previous waves, both in number and consequences. A new fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, with vaccination and preventive measures as controls. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, and the obtained results are discussed.

Global analysis of a time fractional order spatio-temporal SIR model

We deal in this paper with a diffusive SIR epidemic model described by reaction–diffusion equations involving a fractional derivative. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are shown, next to the boundedness of the solution. Further, it has been shown that the global behavior of the solution is governed by the value of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document}R0, which is known in epidemiology by the basic reproduction number. Indeed, using the Lyapunov direct method it has been proved that the disease will extinct for \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ R_0 <1 $$\end{document}R0<1 for any value of the diffusion constants. For \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0>1$$\end{document}R0>1, the disease will persist and the unique positive equilibrium is globally stable. Some numerical illustrations have been used to confirm our theoretical results.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of< 5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.

Necessary optimality conditions of a reaction-diffusion SIR model with ABC fractional derivatives

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>The main aim of the present work is to study and analyze a reaction-diffusion fractional version of the SIR epidemic mathematical model by means of the non-local and non-singular ABC fractional derivative operator with complete memory effects. Existence and uniqueness of solution for the proposed fractional model is proved. Existence of an optimal control is also established. Then, necessary optimality conditions are derived. As a consequence, a characterization of the optimal control is given. Lastly, numerical results are given with the aim to show the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy, which provides significant results using the AB fractional derivative operator in the Caputo sense, comparing it with the classical integer one. The results show the importance of choosing very well the fractional characterization of the order of the operators.</p>

Fractional-Order Modelling and Optimal Control of Cholera Transmission

A Caputo-type fractional-order mathematical model for “metapopulation cholera transmission” was recently proposed in [Chaos Solitons Fractals 117 (2018), 37–49]. A sensitivity analysis of that model is done here to show the accuracy relevance of parameter estimation. Then, a fractional optimal control (FOC) problem is formulated and numerically solved. A cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to assess the relevance of studied control measures. Moreover, such analysis allows us to assess the cost and effectiveness of the control measures during intervention. We conclude that the FOC system is more effective only in part of the time interval. For this reason, we propose a system where the derivative order varies along the time interval, being fractional or classical when more advantageous. Such variable-order fractional model, that we call a FractInt system, shows to be the most effective in the control of the disease.

Mathematical Analysis of a Fractional COVID-19 Model Applied to Wuhan, Spain and Portugal

We propose a qualitative analysis of a recent fractional-order COVID-19 model. We start by showing that the model is mathematically and biologically well posed. Then, we give a proof on the global stability of the disease free equilibrium point. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to ensure stability and convergence of the disease free equilibrium point.

Dynamical analysis of fractional-order Holling type-II food chain model

This paper proposed a fractional-order Holling type-II food chain model. First, we verified the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity and boundedness of the solution of the model, and some conditions for equilibrium existence and local stability were studied. Second, a controller was proposed, and the Lyapunov method was used to study the global stability of the positive equilibrium point. Finally, numerical simulations were performed to verify the theoretical results.

A fractional order HIV-TB co-infection model in the presence of exogenous reinfection and recurrent TB

In this article, a novel fractional order model has been introduced in Caputo sense for HIV-TB co-infection in the presence of exogenous reinfection and recurrent TB along with the treatment for both HIV and TB. The main aim of considering the fractional order model is to incorporate the memory effect of both diseases. We have analyzed both sub-models separately with fractional order. The basic reproduction number, which measures the contagiousness of the disease, is determined. The HIV sub-model is shown to have a locally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium point when the corresponding reproduction number, R H , is less than unity, whereas, for R H > 1 , the endemic equilibrium point comes into existence. For the TB sub-model, the disease-free equilibrium point has been proved to be locally asymptotically stable for R T < 1 . The existence of TB endemic equilibrium points in the presence of reinfection and recurrent TB for R T < 1 justifies the existence of backward bifurcation under certain restrictions on the parameters. Further, we numerically simulate the fractional order model to verify the analytical results and highlight the role of fractional order in co-infection modeling. The fractional order derivative is shown to have a crucial role in determining the transmission dynamics of HIV-TB co-infection. It is concluded that the memory effect plays a significant role in reducing the infection prevalence of HIV-TB co-infection. An increment in the number of recovered individuals can also be observed when the memory effect is taken into consideration by introducing fractional order model.

Nonlinear dynamics of a new seasonal epidemiological model with age-structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this article, we study the dynamics of a new proposed age-structured population mathematical model driven by a seasonal forcing function that takes into account the variability of the climate. We introduce a generalized force of infection function to study different potential disease outcomes. Using nonlinear analysis tools and differential inequalities theorems, we obtain sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a positive periodic solution. Moreover, we provide sufficient conditions that assure the global attractivity of the positive periodic solution. Numerical results corroborate the theoretical results in the sense that the solutions are positive and the periodic solution is a global attractor. This type of models are important, since they take into account the variability of the weather and the impact on some epidemics such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Application of Bernoulli Polynomials for Solving Variable-Order Fractional Optimal Control-Affine Problems

We propose two efficient numerical approaches for solving variable-order fractional optimal control-affine problems. The variable-order fractional derivative is considered in the Caputo sense, which together with the Riemann–Liouville integral operator is used in our new techniques. An accurate operational matrix of variable-order fractional integration for Bernoulli polynomials is introduced. Our methods proceed as follows. First, a specific approximation of the differentiation order of the state function is considered, in terms of Bernoulli polynomials. Such approximation, together with the initial conditions, help us to obtain some approximations for the other existing functions in the dynamical control-affine system. Using these approximations, and the Gauss—Legendre integration formula, the problem is reduced to a system of nonlinear algebraic equations. Some error bounds are then given for the approximate optimal state and control functions, which allow us to obtain an error bound for the approximate value of the performance index. We end by solving some test problems, which demonstrate the high accuracy of our results.

The susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (SUC) epidemic model for estimating unidentified infected population for COVID-19

In this article, we propose the Susceptible-Unidentified infected-Confirmed (SUC) epidemic model for estimating the unidentified infected population for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. The unidentified infected population means the infected but not identified people. They are not yet hospitalized and still can spread the disease to the susceptible. To estimate the unidentified infected population, we find the optimal model parameters which best fit the confirmed case data in the least-squares sense. Here, we use the time series data of the confirmed cases in China reported by World Health Organization. In addition, we perform the practical identifiability analysis of the proposed model using the Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model is simple but potentially useful in estimating the unidentified infected population to monitor the effectiveness of interventions and to prepare the quantity of protective masks or COVID-19 diagnostic kit to supply, hospital beds, medical staffs, and so on. Therefore, to control the spread of the infectious disease, it is essential to estimate the number of the unidentified infected population. The proposed SUC model can be used as a basic building block mathematical equation for estimating unidentified infected population.