Modelling the Public Health Impact of MenACWY and MenC Adolescent Vaccination Strategies in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes significant mortality and long-term sequelae. This study assesses the potential public health impact of adolescent vaccination strategies employing MenACWY and MenC vaccines in Germany, where the existing meningococcal immunisation programme predominantly involves MenC administration in toddlers.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to simulate the carriage of five meningococcal serogroup compartments (AY/B/C/W/Other) from 2019 until 2060 within 1-year age groups from 0 to 99 years of age. IMD cases were estimated based on case-carrier ratios. The model considered vaccine effectiveness against carriage acquisition and IMD.

RESULTS

The model predicts that introducing MenACWY adolescent vaccination could lead to a considerable reduction in IMD incidence, with the potential to prevent up to 65 cases per year and a cumulative total of 1467 cases by 2060. This decrease, mainly driven by herd effects, would result in a reduction of IMD incidence across all age groups, regardless of vaccination age. Furthermore, implementing MenACWY vaccination in adolescents is projected to decrease annual MenACWY-related IMD mortality by up to 64%, equating to an overall prevention of 156 IMD deaths by 2060. These protective outcomes are expected to culminate in approximately 2250 life years gained (LYG) throughout the model's projected time horizon. In contrast, the adoption of MenC vaccination in adolescents is predicted to have minimal influence on both IMD incidence and mortality, as well as on LYG.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study demonstrate that implementing MenACWY vaccination for adolescents in Germany is likely to notably reduce IMD incidence and mortality across age groups. However, the introduction of MenC adolescent vaccination shows only limited impact. Considering the extensive healthcare resources typically required for IMD management, these findings suggest the potential for economic benefits associated with the adoption of MenACWY adolescent vaccination, warranting further cost-effectiveness analysis.

Comparison of a static cohort model and dynamic transmission model for respiratory syncytial virus intervention programs for infants in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

A recent study comparing results of multiple cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) in a hypothetical population found that monoclonal antibody (mAb) immunoprophylaxis for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants averted fewer medically attended cases when estimated using dynamic transmission models (DTMs) versus static cohort models (SCMs). We aimed to investigate whether model calibration or parameterization could be the primary driver of inconsistencies between SCM and DTM predictions.

METHODS

A recently published DTM evaluating the CEA of infant mAb immunoprophylaxis in England and Wales (EW) was selected as the reference model. We adapted our previously published SCM for US infants to EW by utilizing the same data sources used by the DTM. Both models parameterized mAb efficacy from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) that estimated an average efficacy of 74.5% against all medically attended RSV episodes and 62.1% against RSV hospitalizations. To align model assumptions, we modified the SCM to incorporate waning efficacy. Since the estimated indirect effects from the DTM were small (i.e., approximately 100-fold smaller in magnitude than direct effects), we hypothesized that alignment of model parameters should result in alignment of model predictions. Outputs for model comparison comprised averted hospitalizations and averted GP visits, estimated for seasonal (S) and seasonal-with-catchup (SC) immunization strategies.

RESULTS

When we aligned the SCM intervention parameters to DTM intervention parameters, significantly more averted hospitalizations were predicted by the SCM (S: 32.3%; SC: 51.3%) than the DTM (S: 17.8%; SC: 28.6%). The SCM most closely replicated the DTM results when the initial efficacy of the mAb intervention was 62.1%, leading to an average efficacy of 39.3%. Under this parameterization the SCM predicted 17.4% (S) and 27.7% (SC) averted hospitalizations. Results were similar for averted GP visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Parameterization of the RSV mAb intervention efficacy is a plausible primary driver of differences between SCM versus DTM model predictions.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of< 5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.

Cost-effectiveness of routine catch-up hepatitis a vaccination in the United States: Dynamic transmission modeling study

BACKGROUND

Despite routine vaccination of children against hepatitis A (HepA), a large segment of the United States population remains unvaccinated, imposing a risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) to adolescents and adults. In July of 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended that all children and adolescents aged 2-18 years who have not previously received a HepA vaccine be vaccinated. We evaluated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this HepA catch-up vaccination strategy.

METHODS

We used a dynamic transmission model to compare adding a HepA catch-up vaccination of persons age 2-18 years to a routine vaccination of children 12-23 months of age with routine vaccination only in the United States. The model included various health compartments: maternal antibodies, susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infectious, symptomatic infectious (outpatient, hospitalized, liver transplant, post- liver transplant, death), recovered, and vaccinated with and without immunity. Using a 3% annual discount rate, we estimated the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a societal perspective over a 100-year time horizon. All costs were converted into 2020 US dollars.

FINDINGS

Compared with the routine vaccination policy at 12-23 months of age over 100 years, the catch-up program for unvaccinated children and adolescents aged 2-18 years, prevented 70,072 additional symptomatic infections, 51,391 outpatient visits, 16,575 hospitalizations, and 413 deaths. The catch-up vaccination strategy was cost-saving when compared with the routine vaccination strategy. In scenario analysis allowing administering a second dose to partially vaccinated children, the cost-effectiveness of was not favorable at a higher vaccination coverage ($196,701/QALY at 5% and $476,241/QALY at 50%).

INTERPRETATION

HepA catch-up vaccination in the United States is expected to reduce HepA morbidity and mortality and save cost. The catch-up program would be optimized when focusing on unvaccinated children and adolescents and maximizing their first dose coverage.

Cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization: Implications of a dynamic transmission model for low- and middle-income countries

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(84) Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have experienced a resurgence of pertussis.

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(74) Maternal aP immunization could prevent pertussis among very young infants.

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(84) A dynamic transmission model was used to evaluate maternal aP immunization in LMICs.

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(82) Maternal aP is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate or low.

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(85) Maternal aP immunization is not cost-effective in LMICs with infant coverage 90-95%.

Objective

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization in low- and middle-income countries using a dynamic transmission model.

Methods

We developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the impact of infant vaccination with whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine with and without maternal aP immunization. The model was calibrated to Brazilian surveillance data and then used to project health outcomes and costs under alternative strategies in Brazil, and, after adjusting model parameter values to reflect their conditions, in Nigeria and Bangladesh. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness is incremental cost (2014 USD) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY).

Results

The dynamic model shows that maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in Brazil, a middle-income country, under the base-case assumptions, but would be very expensive at infant vaccination coverage in and above the threshold range necessary to eliminate the disease (90–95%). At 2007 infant coverage (DTP1 90%, DTP3 61% at 1 year of age), maternal immunization would cost < $4,000 per DALY averted. At high infant coverage, such as Brazil in 1996 (DTP1 94%, DTP3 74% at 1 year), cost/DALY increases to $1.27 million. When the model’s time horizon was extended from 2030 to 2100, cost/DALY increased under both infant coverage levels, but more steeply with high coverage. The results were moderately sensitive to discount rate, maternal vaccine price, and maternal aP coverage and were robust using the 100 best-fitting parameter sets. Scenarios representing low-income countries showed that maternal aP immunization could be cost-saving in countries with low infant coverage, such as Nigeria, but very expensive in countries, such as Bangladesh, with high infant coverage.

Conclusion

A dynamic model, which captures the herd immunity benefits of pertussis vaccination, shows that, in low- and middle-income countries, maternal aP immunization is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate, even cost-saving when it is low, but not cost-effective when coverage levels pass 90–95%.

Comparison of static and dynamic models of maternal immunization to prevent infant pertussis in Brazil

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Dynamic transmission models of infectious disease capture the herd immunity effects of vaccination.

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We compared dynamic and static models of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization built with Brazilian data.

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At infant vaccine coverage < 90–95%, both models estimate that maternal immunization is cost-effective.

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Only the dynamic model shows that maternal immunization is not cost-effective at infant coverage > 90–95%.

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The background effect of routine infant vaccination is critical to the cost-effectiveness of maternal aP immunization.

Background

This paper compares cost-effectiveness results from two models of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in Brazil, one static, one dynamic, to explore when static models are adequate for public health decisions and when the extra effort required by dynamic models is worthwhile.

Methods

We defined two scenarios to explore key differences between static and dynamic models, herd immunity and time horizon. Scenario 1 evaluates the incremental cost/DALY of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization as routine infant vaccination coverage ranges from low/moderate up to, and above, the threshold at which herd immunity begins to eliminate pertussis. Scenario 2 compares cost-effectiveness estimates over the models’ different time horizons. Maternal vaccine prices of $9.55/dose (base case) and $1/dose were evaluated.

Results

The dynamic model shows that maternal immunization could be cost-saving as well as life-saving at low levels of infant vaccination coverage. When infant coverage reaches the threshold range (90–95%), it is expensive: the dynamic model estimates that maternal immunization costs $2 million/DALY at infant coverage > 95% and maternal vaccine price of $9.55/dose; at $1/dose, cost/DALY is $200,000. By contrast, the static model estimates costs/DALY only modestly higher at high than at low infant coverage. When the models’ estimates over their different time horizons are compared at infant coverage < 90–95%, their projections fall in the same range.

Conclusions

Static models may serve to explore an intervention’s cost-effectiveness against infectious disease: the direction and principal drivers of change were the same in both models. When, however, an intervention too small to have significant herd immunity effects itself, such as maternal aP immunization, takes place against a background of vaccination in the rest of the population, a dynamic model is crucial to accurate estimates of cost-effectiveness. This finding is particularly important in the context of widely varying routine infant vaccination rates globally.

Clinical Trial registry

Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

Potential public health impact of a Neisseria meningitidis A, B, C, W, and Y pentavalent vaccine in the United States

Objective: Globally, 5 serogroups (A, B, C, W, and Y) cause the majority of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Vaccines targeting these serogroups are currently part of the US adolescent immunization platform, which includes 1 + 1 dosing of a MenACWY vaccine routinely at ages 11 and 16 years and 2 doses of a MenB vaccine at age 16-23 years under shared clinical decision-making between the patient and healthcare provider. In 2018, MenACWY vaccination coverage was 86.6% for ≥1 dose and 50.8% for ≥2 doses, whereas MenB vaccination coverage was 17.2% for ≥1 dose and <50% for completion of the multidose series. A pentavalent MenABCWY vaccine could simplify immunization schedules and improve vaccination coverage. We estimated the public health impact of a pentavalent MenABCWY vaccine using a model that considers meningococcal carriage and vaccination coverage.Methods: A population-based dynamic model estimated the 10-year reduction in IMD from implementing a MenABCWY vaccine within the existing US meningococcal immunization platform. Five vaccination schedules (4 new, 1 existing) were examined to estimate the impact of different recommendations on the overall reduction in the number of IMD cases. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying vaccination coverage at age 16 years.Results: The existing schedule and coverage of MenACWY and MenB vaccines (total 4 doses) could potentially avert 165 IMD cases over 10 years versus no vaccination. Assuming similar MenABCWY and MenACWY vaccination coverage rates at age 16 years, replacing 1 or more MenACWY and/or MenB doses with MenABCWY could avert more cases, ranging from 189 to 256. The most beneficial MenABCWY vaccine schedule was 2 doses at age 11 years and 1 dose at age 16 years.Conclusions: Replacing one or more MenACWY/MenB vaccine doses with MenABCWY could reduce IMD caused by all 5 meningococcal serogroups among the US adolescent population, while also reducing the number of injections required.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization in low- and middle-income countries: A review of lessons learnt

This issue of Vaccine is devoted to papers from a research project that developed two types of simulation models, static and dynamic transmission, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research was conducted by a multinational team of investigators and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to gain an understanding of when and where maternal immunization might be a good public health investment for LMICs. Here we review the project's central lessons for vaccine policy and research. Models require a lot of data. As most LMICs lack good data, the models were built using pertussis disease burden data from Brazil, a middle-income country with three long-established, independent information systems (disease surveillance, hospitalization, and mortality), on the hypothesis that the disease process is similar across countries. Values for key parameters, particularly infant mortality, infant vaccine coverage, and costs of vaccination and treatment, were then varied to represent other LMICs. The results show that coverage levels of infant whole cell pertussis (wP) vaccine are key to the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization. In settings where infant wP coverage is below the threshold thought necessary to eliminate pertussis in the population, 90-95%, maternal immunization is cost-effective, even cost-saving. By contrast, it is very expensive in countries capable of maintaining infant vaccination in or above the threshold range. The research also suggests that, while static models may serve to explore an intervention's cost-effectiveness initially, dynamic transmission models are essential for more accurate estimates. These findings can help guide policies toward maternal pertussis immunization, but also show that developing better data on neonatal pertussis mortality burden and infant vaccine coverage in LMICs, and on the duration of immunity of currently available pertussis vaccines, are key priorities to support better vaccine policy.

Seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya: an economic evaluation using dynamic transmission modelling

BACKGROUND

There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya.

METHODS

We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6-23 months (strategy I), 2-5 years (strategy II) and 6-14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17-$872).

RESULTS

The mean number of infections across all ages was 2-15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6-23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2-5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6-14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI: -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Cost-effectiveness of Hepatitis A vaccination in a developed and developing country

PURPOSE

Hepatitis A is a prevalent disease that is largely preventable by vaccine usage. The vaccine for this illness is highly underused in most regions. In an attempt to find the strategies that are most beneficial in regard to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost in current environments, the purpose of this paper is to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses to investigate vaccination strategies in a more economically developed country (MEDC), generally known as a "developed" area: the USA, and a less economically developed country (LEDC), generally known as a "developing" area: the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

This study used a dynamic transmission model for comparative effectiveness analyses. The model ran two different scenarios. The two regions studied have different policies and strategies for Hepatitis A vaccination currently, and also used different strategies in 2009. In the USA, a universal vaccination policy was modeled, along with a scenario in which it was removed. In Rio de Janeiro, a no vaccination policy was modeled, along with a scenario in which a universal vaccination policy was effected.

FINDINGS

The comparison of resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio values to accepted threshold values showed universal vaccination to be cost-effective in both the USA and Rio de Janeiro as compared to no vaccination. When episode and vaccination costs and vaccination efficacy were varied, this still remained true. Universal vaccination was found to result in lower incidence of Hepatitis A in both the USA and Rio de Janeiro. Over the twenty-year time horizon, universal vaccination is projected to prevent 506,945 cases of symptomatic Hepatitis A in the USA and 42,318 cases of Hepatitis A in Rio de Janeiro. Other benefits include a projected increase in cumulative QALYs through the use of universal vaccination.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

This analysis showed universal vaccination to be cost-effective as compared to no vaccination, and portions of the study's approach had not previously been applied in tandem to investigate Hepatitis A interventions. The results may help foster higher compliance rates for Hepatitis A vaccination and even greater per-person economic benefits of universal vaccination, particularly in the USA. The purpose of this study is also to encourage elevated levels of surveillance on age of infection in developing regions and consistent reevaluation utilizing dynamic transmission models in both the USA and Brazil, as well as other rapidly developing regions, in order to prevent future epidemics and costs associated with the disease.

Vaccinating children against influenza: overall cost-effective with potential for undesirable outcomes

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of an influenza vaccination program for children in the Netherlands. This requires an evaluation of the long-term impact of such a program on the burden of influenza across all age groups, using a transmission model that accounts for the seasonal variability in vaccine effectiveness and the shorter duration of protection following vaccination as compared to natural infection.

METHODS

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a stochastic dynamic transmission model that has been calibrated to reported GP visits with influenza-like illness in the Netherlands over 11 seasons (2003/2004 to 2014/2015). We analyzed the costs and effects of extending the current program with vaccination of children aged 2-16 years at 50% coverage over 20 consecutive seasons. We measured the effects in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and we adopted a societal perspective.

RESULTS

The childhood vaccination program is estimated to have an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3944 per QALY gained and is cost-effective in the general population (across 1000 simulations; conventional Dutch threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained). The childhood vaccination program is not estimated to be cost-effective for the target-group itself with an average ICER of €57,054 per QALY gained. Uncertainty analyses reveal that these ICERs hide a wide range of outcomes. Even though introduction of a childhood vaccination program decreases the number of infections, it tends to lead to larger epidemics: in 23.3% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program results in an increase in seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%, which is expected to cause serious strain on the health care system. In 6.4% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program leads to a net loss of QALYs. These findings are robust across different targeted age groups and vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling indicates that childhood influenza vaccination is cost-effective in the Netherlands. However, childhood influenza vaccination is not cost-effective when only outcomes for the children themselves are considered. In approximately a quarter of the simulations, the introduction of a childhood vaccination program increases the frequency of seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%. The possibility of an overall health loss cannot be excluded.

The cost-effectiveness of trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination in communities in South Africa, Vietnam and Australia

BACKGROUND

To inform national healthcare authorities whether quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) provide better value for money than trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of TIV and QIV in low-and-middle income communities based in South Africa and Vietnam and contrasted these findings with those from a high-income community in Australia.

METHODS

Individual based dynamic simulation models were interfaced with a health economic analysis model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 15% of the population with QIV or TIV in each community over the period 2003-2013. Vaccination was prioritized for HIV-infected individuals, before elderly aged 65+ years and young children. Country or region-specific data on influenza-strain circulation, clinical outcomes and costs were obtained from published sources. The societal perspective was used and outcomes were expressed in International$ (I$) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

When compared with TIV, we found that QIV would provide a greater reduction in influenza-related morbidity in communities in South Africa and Vietnam as compared with Australia. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of QIV versus TIV was estimated at I$4183/QALY in South Africa, I$1505/QALY in Vietnam and I$80,966/QALY in Australia.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of QIV varied between communities due to differences in influenza epidemiology, comorbidities, and unit costs. Whether TIV or QIV is the most cost-effective alternative heavily depends on influenza B burden among subpopulations targeted forvaccination in addition to country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds and budgetary impact.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in addition to the current cervical cancer screening programme in Germany using a dynamic transmission model.

METHODS

Based on a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics and the natural history of HPV infection and associated diseases (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts), we estimated the epidemiological and economic consequences of HPV vaccination with both the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines. In our base case analysis, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 12-year-old girls with a 3-dose schedule. In sensitivity analysis, we also evaluated the use of a 2-dose schedule and assessed the impact of vaccinating boys.

RESULTS

From a health care payer perspective, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of a 3-dose schedule were €34,249 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the bivalent and €14,711 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. Inclusion of indirect costs decreased ICERs by up to 40%. When adopting a health care payer perspective, ICERs of a 2-dose approach decreased to €19,450 per QALY for the bivalent and to €3645 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. From a societal perspective, a 2-dose approach using the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-saving strategy while using the bivalent vaccine resulted in an ICER of €13,248 per QALY. Irrespective of the perspective adopted, additional vaccination of boys resulted in ICERs exceeding €50,000 per QALY, except for scenarios with low coverage (20%) in girls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model results suggest that routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with three doses is likely to be cost-effective in Germany. Due to the additional impact on genital warts, the quadrivalent vaccine appeared to be more cost-effective than the bivalent vaccine. A 2-dose schedule of the quadrivalent vaccine might even lead to cost savings when adopting a societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness of additional vaccination of boys was highly dependent on the coverage in girls.