Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis-Effect on number of deaths

Exploring how ecological and epidemiological processes shape multi-host disease dynamics using global sensitivity analysis

We use global sensitivity analysis (specifically, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients) to explore the roles of ecological and epidemiological processes in shaping the temporal dynamics of a parameterized SIR-type model of two host species and an environmentally transmitted pathogen. We compute the sensitivities of disease prevalence in each host species to model parameters. Sensitivity rankings are calculated, interpreted biologically, and contrasted for cases where the pathogen is introduced into a disease-free community and cases where a second host species is introduced into an endemic single-host community. In some cases the magnitudes and dynamics of the sensitivities can be predicted only by knowing the host species' characteristics (i.e., their competitive abilities and disease competence) whereas in other cases they can be predicted by factors independent of the species' characteristics (specifically, intraspecific versus interspecific processes or a species' roles of invader versus resident). For example, when a pathogen is initially introduced into a disease-free community, disease prevalence in both hosts is more sensitive to the burst size of the first host than the second host. In comparison, disease prevalence in each host is more sensitive to its own infection rate than the infection rate of the other host species. In total, this study illustrates that global sensitivity analysis can provide useful insight into how ecological and epidemiological processes shape disease dynamics and how those effects vary across time and system conditions. Our results show that sensitivity analysis can provide quantification and direction when exploring biological hypotheses.

Stress and Stressors: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Students, Faculty and Staff at a Historically Black College/University

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, academic institutions have changed their modus operandi, particularly in adopting distance learning in lieu of face-to-face instruction. This has sometimes produced unanticipated effects on students. The purpose of this study was to determine COVID-19 pandemic stressors and coping mechanisms utilized as relief measures by students, faculty, and staff in the College of Health Sciences at a historically Black institution. Cross-sectional study.

SAMPLING

A convenience sample of 209 students, 34 faculty, and 9 staff from the College of Health Sciences at a historically Black institution participated in this study.

INSTRUMENT

A 32-item Qualtrics survey was utilized to gather demographic data, COVID-19-related stressors, and coping mechanisms.

ANALYSIS

Descriptive statistics, Chi-square test for categorical variables, and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel tests for ordinal variables were used. Female students, African American students (AAS), and undergraduates perceived stress related to the risk of contagion during the pandemic higher than the male students (P-value = 0.0096), other races (P-value = 0.0249) and graduate students (P-value = 0.0141) respectively. Female students perceived more stress related to relationships with relatives (P-value = 0.0128). Caucasian students compared to others (P-value = 0.0240) and graduate students compared to undergraduate students (P-value = 0.0011) reported less perceived stress related to the relationships with other colleagues. Top coping strategies of students and staff included interaction with family and friends, social media, hand hygiene, and meditation/spiritualty. Except for "avoidance of public spaces/transportation", all other mechanisms were the same for faculty.

Learning about COVID-19: sources of information, public trust, and contact tracing during the pandemic

Objective

To assess the association between public attitudes, beliefs, and information seeking about the COVID-19 pandemic and willingness to participate in contact tracing in Michigan.

Methods

Using data from the quarterly Michigan State of the State survey conducted in May 2020 (n = 1000), we conducted multiple regression analyses to identify factors associated with willingness to participate in COVID-19 contact tracing efforts.

Results

Perceived threat of the pandemic to personal health (B = 0.59, p = <.00, Ref = No threat) and general trust in the health system (B = 0.17, p < 0.001), were the strongest positive predictors of willingness to participate in contact tracing. Concern about misinformation was also positively associated with willingness to participate in contact tracing (B = 0.30, p < 0.001; Ref = No concern). Trust in information from public health institutions was positively associated with willingness to participate in contact tracing, although these institutions were not necessarily the main sources of information about COVID-19.

Conclusion

Policy makers can enhance willingness to participate in public health efforts such as contact tracing during infectious disease outbreaks by helping the public appreciate the seriousness of the public health threat and communicating trustworthy information through accessible channels.