Roles of steady-state and dynamic models for regulation of hydrophobic chemicals in aquatic systems: A case study of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and PCB-180 in three diverse ecosystems

Spatial heterogeneity, sediment-water exchange, and diffusion mechanisms of organophosphate esters from river to coastal aquatic system in a typical economic circle of northern China

Organophosphate esters (OPEs) have proven to be pervasive in aquatic environments globally. However, understanding their partitioning behavior and mechanisms at the sediment-water interface remains limited. This study elucidated the spatial heterogeneity, interfacial exchange, and diffusion mechanisms of 14 OPEs (∑14OPEs) from river to coastal aquatic system. The transport tendencies of OPEs at the sediment-water interface were quantitatively assessed using fugacity methods. The total ∑14OPEs concentrations in water and sediments ranged from 154 ng/L to 528 ng/L and 2.41 ng/g dry weight (dw) to 230 ng/g dw, respectively. This result indicated a descending spatial tendency with moderate variability. OPE distribution was primarily influenced by temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen levels. As the carbon atom number increased, alkyl and chlorinated OPEs transitioned from diffusion towards the aqueous phase to equilibrium. In contrast, aryl OPEs and triphenylphosphine oxide, which had equivalent carbon atom counts, maintained equilibrium throughout. Diffusion trends of individual OPE congener at the sediment-water interface varied at the same total organic carbon contents (foc). As the foc increased, the fugacity fraction values for all OPE homologs showed a declining trend. The distinct molecular structure of each OPE monomer might lead to unique diffusive behaviors at the sediment-water interface. Higher soot carbon content had a more pronounced effect on the distribution patterns of OPEs. The sediment-water distribution of OPEs was primarily influenced by total organic carbon, sediment particle size, dry density, and moisture content. OPEs displayed the highest sensitivity to fluctuations in ammonium and dissolved organic carbon. This study holds significant scientific and theoretical implications for elucidating the interfacial transport and driving forces of OPEs and comprehending their fate and endogenous release in aquatic ecosystems.

A method for simulating spatial fates of chemicals in flowing lake systems: Application to phthalates in a lake

In order to describe spatio-temporal distribution of chemicals in flowing lake systems, a dynamic multimedia fate model of chemicals with spatial differentiation was constructed by coupling the level IV fugacity model with lake hydrodynamics. It was successfully applied to four phthalates (PAEs) in a lake recharged by reclaimed water and its accuracy was verified. Results show that under the long-term influence of flow field, the distributions of PAEs in both lake water and sediment have significant spatial heterogeneity of 2∼5 orders of magnitude, but present different distribution rules, which was explained by analysis of PAE transfer fluxes. The spatial distribution of PAEs in the water column depends on hydrodynamic conditions and whether the primary source is reclaimed water or atmospheric input. Slow water exchange and flow speed promote the migration of PAEs from water to sediment, causing them to always accumulate in sediments far away from the recharging inlet. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that the PAE concentrations in water phase are mainly affected by emission and physicochemical parameters, while those in sediment phase are also sensitive to environmental parameters. The model can provide important information and accurate data support for the scientific management of chemicals in flowing lake systems.

Using a dynamic mass balance model to predict fate and transport of PCBs in a polluted boreal lake in Sweden

In 2013, a screening survey including fish (European perch, Perca fluviatilis) from 20 locations in the Stockholm region of Sweden indicated exceptionally high levels of PCBs (>450 ng ΣPCB₇/g ww) in Lake Oxundasjön. An extensive sampling program was launched to define the magnitude and area of impact of PCBs. Moreover, a dynamic mass balance model approach was applied to identify and quantify key transport processes and predict the long-term turnover of PCBs given various remediation scenarios. Based on the dating of sediment profiles, primary emissions of PCBs to Lake Oxundasjön have likely occurred from the end of the 1940s until 1980, reaching the lake via one of its tributaries. Presently, the main source of PCBs is diffusion from the lake sediments. From the lake outlet, >400 g ΣPCB₇/yr are transported to Lake Mälaren (the third largest lake in Sweden), supplying drinking water for parts of the Stockholm area. Remediation actions are necessary to reduce the PCB levels in fish below today's marketing limits and environmental quality standards. With natural recovery, our results indicate that the PCB levels in non-migratory fish from Lake Oxundasjön will be elevated for decades to come. The mass of PCBs stored in the lake sediments was estimated, and to our knowledge, Lake Oxundasjön is the most heavily PCB contaminated lake in Sweden. The system constitutes a unique opportunity to test and develop a mathematical mass balance model for PCBs, with substantial data acquired from different aquatic matrices. The model presented in the paper is applicable for risk assessments of PCBs, and the results contribute to the general understanding of the transport and turnover dynamics of PCBs in aquatic ecosystems.

Application of multimedia models for understanding the environmental behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes: Fate, transport, and bioaccumulation

Multimedia fate and transport models (MFTMs) describe how chemicals behave in the environment based on their inherent properties and the characteristics of receiving systems. We critically review the use of MFTMs for understanding the behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes (VMS). MFTMs have been used to predict the fate of VMS in wastewater treatment, rivers, lakes, marine systems, and the atmosphere, and to assess bioaccumulation and trophic transfers. More widely, they have been used to assess the overall persistence, long-range transport potential (LRTP), and the propensity for atmosphere-surface exchange. The application of MFTMs for VMS requires particularly careful selection of model inputs because the properties of VMS differ from those of most organic compounds. For example, although n-octanol/water partition coefficient (KOW ) values are high, air:water partition coefficient (KAW ) values are also high and n-octanol/air partition coefficient (KOA ) values are relatively low. In addition, organic carbon/water partition coefficient (KOC ) values are substantially lower than expectations based on KOW . This means that most empirical relationships between KOC and KOW are not appropriate. Good agreement between modeled and measured concentrations in air, sediment, and biota indicates that our understanding of environmental fate is reasonable. VMS compounds are "fliers" that principally partition to the atmosphere, implying high LRTP, although they have low redeposition potential. They are degraded in air (half-lives 3-10 days) and, thus, have low overall persistence. In water, exposure can be limited by hydrolysis, volatilization, and partitioning to sediments (where degradation half-lives are likely to be high). In food webs, they are influenced by metabolism in biota, which tends to drive trophic dilution (i.e., trophic magnification factors are often but not always <1). Key remaining uncertainties include the following: (i) the strength and direction of the temperature dependence for KOC ; (ii) the fate of atmospheric reaction products; and (iii) the magnitude of emissions to wastewater. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:599-621. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Spatially resolved environmental fate models: A review

Spatially resolved environmental models are important tools to introduce and highlight the spatial variability of the real world into modeling. Although various spatial models have been developed so far, yet the development and evaluation of these models remain a challenging task due to several difficulties related to model setup, computational cost, and obtaining high-resolution input data (e.g., monitoring and emission data). For example, atmospheric transport models can be used when high resolution predicted concentrations in atmospheric compartments are required, while spatial multimedia fate models may be preferred for regulatory risk assessment, life cycle impact assessment of chemicals, or when the partitioning of chemical substances in a multimedia environment is considered. The goal of this paper is to review and compare different spatially resolved environmental models, according to their spatial, temporal and chemical domains, with a closer insight into spatial multimedia fate models, to achieve a better understanding of their strengths and limitations. This review also points out several requirements for further improvement of existing models as well as for their integration.

Modelling scenarios of environmental recovery after implementation of controls on emissions of persistent organic pollutants

Comparison of monitoring data with toxicologically-derived environmental quality standards (EQSs) forms the basis of assessments of the quality status of the water environment. Having established the status quo, the logical next step is to address instances of non-compliance with EQSs by applying remedial measures, including reducing the use or at least the emission of the substances of concern or by taking steps to reduce concentrations already present using technological solutions such as enhanced wastewater treatment. The selection of suitable remedial measures must be a compromise between cost, likely effectiveness and the timescale over which improvements might be acceptable. The decision on overall environmental management has also to take into account the need for demonstrable progress; this might mean that it is preferable to address some more readily achievable goal rather than to attempt to solve a more serious, but ultimately intractable problem. This paper describes the development and application of a generic modelling tool that provides a way of assessing the potential requirements for remedial actions and their likely outcomes over a timescale of up to forty years taking account of sediment partitioning, environmental degradation and biological accumulation. The tool was validated using a detailed UK wastewater treatment works effluent discharge dataset. Examples involving several chemicals that are of current concern are provided. Some substances (e.g. tributyltin, PFOS) are identified as likely to meet EQS values in sediments or biota in a relatively short timescale; others (PAHs, DEHP) appear to represent more intractable problems.

Estimation of the Contribution Made to Down-the-Drain Emissions of D5 by Personal Care Product Categories in the European Union

Aquatic risk assessment of personal care chemicals requires quantifying the contribution of all product types containing these ingredients to down-the-drain emissions. We developed a probabilistic model framework embracing stochastic variability associated with individual consumers and their behaviors in the European Union, as well as other sources of uncertainty related to losses following applications (e.g., volatilization). The model was applied to decamethylcyclopentasoloxane (D5), an emollient used in wash-off (WO) and leave-on (LO) products. Quantifying contributions from each product category containing D5 to down-the-drain emissions is necessary to inform optimal risk management options. Simulation results for the baseline scenario in 2012 support the argument that LO products make up a minor contribution (7.1%) to down-the-drain emissions of D5, with only 0.20% of the D5 used in LO products being released to wastewater. The most influential model parameters are the release factor from WO products and the time between application and use for various LO product types, stressing the importance of embracing stochastic variability across individuals' behavior when assessing contributions of various product types to environmental emissions. The downward trend in WO use from 2010 to 2016 is reflected in declining concentrations in wastewater influent during the same period. Uncertainty remains about future levels of D5, once phasing out WO products is complete. The probabilistic model in conjunction with high-tier data of consumer habits is a promising high-tier tool for the characterization of complex emission scenarios of personal care ingredients. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;00:1-12. © 2019 SETAC.

Modelling peak exposure of pesticides in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems: importance of dissolved organic carbon and vertical particle movement in soil

In the present work, an existing vegetation/air/litter/soil model (SoilPlusVeg) was modified to improve organic chemical fate description in terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems accounting for horizontal and vertical particulate organic carbon (POC) transport in soil. The model was applied to simulate the fate of three pesticides (terbuthylazine, chlorpyrifos and etofenprox), characterized by increasing hydrophobicity (log K_OW from about 3 to 7), in the soil compartment and more specifically, their movement towards surface and groundwater through infiltration and runoff processes. The aim was to evaluate the role of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and POC in the soil in influencing the peak exposure of pesticides in terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems. Simulation results showed that while terbuthylazine and chlorpyrifos dominated the free water phase (C_W-FREE) of soil, etofenprox was mainly present in soil porewater as POC associated chemical. This resulted in an increase of this highly hydrophobic chemical movement towards groundwater and surface water, up to a factor of 40. The present work highlighted the importance of DOC and POC as an enhancer of mobility in the water of poor or very little mobile chemicals. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the bioavailability change with time and parameterize this process in multimedia fate models.

Uncertainty and equifinality in environmental modelling of organic pollutants with specific focus on cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes

Multi-media fate and transport models (MFTMs) are invaluable tools in understanding and predicting the likely behaviour of organic pollutants in the environment. However, some parameters describing the properties of both the environmental system and the chemical pollutant under consideration are uncertain and or variable in space and time. Furthermore, model performance is often evaluated using sparse data sets on chemical concentrations in different media. This can result in equifinality - the phenomenon in which several different combinations of model parameters can result in similar predictions of environmental concentrations. We explore this idea for MFTMs for the first time using, as examples, three cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS: D4, D5 and D6) and the QWASI lake model applied to Tokyo Bay. Monte Carlo simulation was employed with parameters selected from probability distributions representing estimated uncertainty in a large number of iterations. This generated distributions of predicted chemical concentrations in water (CW) and sediment (CS) which represent the aleatory uncertainty envelope but which also demonstrate significant equifinality. For all three compounds, the uncertainty implied in the CW was lower (coefficient of variation, CV, of the order of 20%) than for CS (CV ca. 45%), reflecting the propensity of cVMS compounds to sorb to sediment and the sensitivity of the model to KOC. Confidence intervals were particularly high for the persistence of D5 and D6 in sediment which both ranged between approximately 1.7 years and approximately 26 years for Tokyo Bay. Predicted concentration distributions matched observations well for D5 and D6 not for D4. Equifinality could be reduced by better constraining acceptable parameter sets using additional measured data from different environmental compartments.

Multimedia fate modeling of antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, lincomycin, and florfenicol in a seasonally ice-covered river receiving WWTP effluents

As a result of the widespread use of antibiotics, a large amount of excretions from human and animals, containing antibiotic residues, is discharged into aquatic environments, leading to potential adverse effects on the ecosystems' health. These residues' impact on seasonally ice-covered rivers remains under investigated. To understand the environmental fate of antibiotics with high-detection frequencies and concentration levels, sulfamethoxazole, lincomycin, and florfenicol were used as models in the present study. A Level IV fugacity model was established and applied to a seasonally ice-covered river receiving municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, the Songhua River in Northeast China. Model validation and sensitivity analysis suggested that the fugacity model could successfully simulate the monitoring concentration within an average difference of one logarithmic unit. The advection process played a major role in the transport and attenuation of the antibiotics in the ice-covered river receiving WWTP effluents. The scenario simulation indicated that increasing the targeted antibiotic concentrations in WWTP effluents to μg L^-1 could keep the targeted antibiotic concentrations higher than 10 ng L^-1 in the receiving river from the WWTP discharge source to 25 km downstream. This finding also demonstrates that the depth of water and ice, as well as flow velocity, play key roles in the fate of antibiotics in the ice-covered river receiving WWTP effluents. To our best knowledge, this is the first major study to combine experimental investigation with modeling to explore the environmental behaviors and fate of antibiotics in such a river.

Distribution and evaluation of the fate of cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes in the largest lake of southwest China

Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS) used in personal care products are released to aquatic environments through wastewater effluent. cVMS are persistent, toxic, bioaccumulative, and have potential to cause ecological harm. In this study, the environmental behavior of octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) were evaluated in the largest lake of southwest China, Dian Lake. Air, water and sediment samples were measured for three cVMS compounds in the winter (January) and summer (July) of 2017. In air, D5 exhibited the highest measured mean concentration among the three cVMS, which were 18.4 ± 8.0 ng·m^-3 in winter and 5.78 ± 3.61 ng·m^-3 in summer. In water and sediment, D6 was the cVMS with the highest measured mean concentration. The mean concentrations in water of D6 were 20.8 ± 5.8 ng·L^-1 in winter and 20.4 ± 5.8 ng·L^-1 in summer. The mean concentrations in sediment of D6 were 281 ± 45.8 ng·g^-1 dw in winter and 270 ± 31.3 ng·g^-1 dw in summer. A fugacity-based mass balance chemical fate model for lakes (QWASI) was used for Dian Lake to compare measurements and explore the behavior of cVMS. D6 was predicted to have the highest water column and sediment concentrations. Modeling results showed that most of the D5 and D6 partitioned into sediment and could persist for several years. Persistence was significantly influenced by the high rate of sediment burial. In an analysis of the impact of physicochemical properties and environmental parameters, K_OC was identified as a key parameter for predicting cVMS behavior. This study illustrates the importance of cVMS in sediments and the potential aquatic risk that they may pose.

Predicted persistence and response times of linear and cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes in global and local environments

We investigated the response times of eight volatile methylsiloxanes (VMSs) in environmental systems at different scales from local to global, with a particular focus on overall loss rates after cessation of emissions. In part, this is driven by proposals to restrict the use of some of these compounds in certain products in Europe. The GloboPOP model estimated low absolute Arctic Contamination Potentials for all VMSs and rapid response times in all media except sediment. VMSs are predicted to be distributed predominantly in air where they react with OH radicals, leading to short response times. After cessation of emissions VMSs concentrations in the environment are expected to decrease rapidly from current levels. Response times in specific water and sediment systems were evaluated using a dynamic QWASI model. Response times were sensitive to both physico-chemical properties and environmental characteristics. Degradation was predicted to play the most important role in determining response times in water and sediment. In the case of the lowest molecular weight VMSs such as L2 and D3, response times were essentially independent of environmental characteristics due to fast hydrolysis in water and sediment. However, response times for the other VMSs are system-specific. They are relatively short in shallow water bodies but increase with depth due to the diminishing role of volatilization on concentration change as volume to surface area ratio increases. In sediment, degradation and resuspension rates also contribute most to the response times. The estimated response times for local environments are useful for planning future monitoring programs.

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Developing and applying metamodels of high resolution process-based simulations for high throughput exposure assessment of organic chemicals in riverine ecosystems

As defined by Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metamodeling), "(a) metamodel or surrogate model is a model of a model, and metamodeling is the process of generating such metamodels." The goals of metamodeling include, but are not limited to (1) developing functional or statistical relationships between a model's input and output variables for model analysis, interpretation, or information consumption by users' clients; (2) quantifying a model's sensitivity to alternative or uncertain forcing functions, initial conditions, or parameters; and (3) characterizing the model's response or state space. Using five models developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency, we generate a metamodeling database of the expected environmental and biological concentrations of 644 organic chemicals released into nine US rivers from wastewater treatment works (WTWs) assuming multiple loading rates and sizes of populations serviced. The chemicals of interest have log n-octanol/water partition coefficients (logK_OW) ranging from 3 to 14, and the rivers of concern have mean annual discharges ranging from 1.09 to 3240m³/s. Log-linear regression models are derived to predict mean annual dissolved and total water concentrations and total sediment concentrations of chemicals of concern based on their logK_OW, Henry's Law Constant, and WTW loading rate and on the mean annual discharges of the receiving rivers. Metamodels are also derived to predict mean annual chemical concentrations in fish, invertebrates, and periphyton. We corroborate a subset of these metamodels using field studies focused on brominated flame retardants and discuss their application for high throughput screening of exposures to human and ecological populations and for analysis and interpretation of field data.