Air pollutant spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and effects on human health in North China

Spatiotemporal patterns of surface ozone exposure inequality in China

Rising surface ozone (O3) levels in China are increasingly emphasizing the potential threats to public health, ecological balance, and economic sustainability. Using a 1 km × 1 km dataset of O3 concentrations, this research employs subpopulation demographic data combined with a population-weighted quality model. Its aim is to evaluate quantitatively the differences in O3 exposure among various subpopulations within China, both at a provincial and urban cluster level. Additionally, an exposure disparity indicator was devised to establish unambiguous exposure risks among significant urban agglomerations at varying O3 concentration levels. The findings reveal that as of 2018, the population-weighted average concentration of O3 for all subgroups has experienced a significant uptick, surpassing the average O3 concentration (118 μg/m3). Notably, the middle-aged demographic exhibited the highest O3 exposure level at 135.7 μg/m3, which is significantly elevated compared to other age brackets. Concurrently, there exists a prominent positive correlation between educational attainment and O3 exposure levels, with the medium-income bracket showing the greatest susceptibility to O3 exposure risks. From an industrial vantage point, the secondary sector demographic is the most adversely impacted by O3 exposure. In terms of urban-rural structure, urban groups in all regions had higher levels of exposure to O3 than rural areas, with North and East China having the most significant levels of exposure. These findings not only emphasize the intricate interplay between public health and environmental justice but further highlight the indispensability of segmented subgroup strategies in environmental health risk assessment. Moreover, this research furnishes invaluable scientific groundwork for crafting targeted public health interventions and sustainable air quality management policies.

An ensemble multi-scale framework for long-term forecasting of air quality

The significance of accurate long-term forecasting of air quality for a long-term policy decision for controlling air pollution and for evaluating its impacts on human health has attracted greater attention recently. This paper proposes an ensemble multi-scale framework to refine the previous version with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and nonstationary oscillation resampling (NSOR) for long-term forecasting. Within the proposed ensemble multi-scale framework, we on one hand apply modified EMD to produce more regular and stable EMD components, allowing the long-range oscillation characteristics of the original time series to be better captured. On the other hand, we provide an ensemble mechanism to alleviate the error propagation problem in forecasts caused by iterative implementation of NSOR at all lead times and name it improved NSOR. Application of the proposed multi-scale framework to long-term forecasting of the daily PM2.5 at 14 monitoring stations in Hong Kong demonstrates that it can effectively capture the long-term variation in air pollution processes and significantly increase the forecasting performance. Specifically, the framework can, respectively, reduce the average root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error over all 14 stations by 8.4% and 9.2% for a lead time of 100 days, compared to previous studies. Additionally, better robustness can be obtained by the proposed ensemble framework for 180-day and 365-day long-term forecasting scenarios. It should be emphasized that the proposed ensemble multi-scale framework is a feasible framework, which is applicable for long-term time series forecasting in general.

Quantifying the contributions of natural and anthropogenic dust sources in Shanxi Province, northern China

Dust storms have direct or indirect impacts on climate change and human health. Identifying and quantifying natural/anthropogenic dust sources can facilitate effective prevention and control of dust events. Based on surface real-time PM10 monitoring data, satellite remote sensing and the HYSPLIT model, this study determined the specific timing, coverage and sources of dust events in Shanxi Province, Northern China. Thus, a composite fingerprinting technique was established to quantify potential dust sources and dust contributions of single dust events. The dust oxidation model was validated, indicating that the composite fingerprinting technique was well suited to the study region. The results show that natural dust sources (67%) contributed more to the study region than anthropogenic dust sources. They were mainly from the northwest and north of the study region. Particularly, the contributions of Taiyuan (TY) and Linfen (LF) accounted for the largest (82%) and smallest (55%) proportions, respectively, both exceeding 50%. Anthropogenic dust sources contributed 33%, mainly from the east and south of the study region. The contribution of anthropogenic dust sources increased in the study region from north to south. In terms of potential dust sources, the Tengger Desert and Badain Jaran Desert (TDBD) contributed the most (26%), followed by the Otindag Sandy Land (OL) (22%). The Taklimakan Desert (TD) contributed the least (2%). The Middle Farmland region of the Hexi Corridor (HMF) in the west (15%) had the largest proportion of anthropogenic dust sources. Differences in the regional contribution of potential dust sources mainly resulted from winter winds, surface drought severity and particle size. At an insignificant distance from the study region, the contribution of potential dust sources was larger in the west than in the east and increased from south to north overall. These methods and findings can contribute to improving the ecological environment in Northern China.

Modeling Impacts of Urbanization on Winter Boundary Layer Meteorology and Aerosol Pollution in the Central Liaoning City Cluster, China

The influence of urbanization on the frequent winter aerosol pollution events in Northeast China is not fully understood. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) coupled with urban canopy (UC) models was used to simulate the impact of urbanization on an aerosol pollution process in the Central Liaoning city cluster (CLCC), China. To investigate the main mechanisms of urban expansion and UC on the winter atmospheric environment and the atmospheric diffusion capacity (ADC) in the CLCC, three simulation cases were designed using land-use datasets from different periods and different UC schemes. A comparative analysis of the simulation results showed that the land-use change (LU) and both LU and UC (LUUC) effects lead to higher surface temperature and lower relative humidity and wind speed in the CLCC by decreasing surface albedo, increasing sensible heat flux, and increasing surface roughness, with a spatial distribution similar to the distribution of LU. The thermal effect leads to an increase in atmospheric instability, an increase in boundary layer height and diffusion coefficient, and an increase in the ADC. The LU and LUUC effects lead to a significant decrease in near-surface PM2.5 concentrations in the CLCC due to changes in meteorological conditions and ADC within the boundary layer. The reduction in surface PM2.5 concentrations due to the LU effect is stronger at night than during daytime, while the LUUC effect leads to a greater reduction in surface PM2.5 concentrations during the day, mainly due to stronger diffusion and dilution caused by the effect of urban turbulence within different levels caused by the more complex UC scheme. In this study, the LU and LUUC effects result in greater thermal than dynamic effects, and both have a negative impact on surface PM2.5 concentrations, but redistribute pollutants from the lower urban troposphere to higher altitudes.

Machine learning model to predict vehicle electrification impacts on urban air quality and related human health effects

Air pollution is a prevailing environmental problem in cities worldwide. The future vehicle electrification (VE), which in Europe will be importantly fostered by the ban of thermal engines from 2035, is expected to have an important effect on urban air quality. Machine learning models represent an optimal tool for predicting changes in air pollutants concentrations in the context of future VE. For the city of Valencia (Spain), a XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting package) model was used in combination with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, both to investigate the importance of different factors explaining air pollution concentrations and predicting the effect of different levels of VE. The model was trained with 5 years of data including the COVID-19 lockdown period in 2020, in which mobility was strongly reduced resulting in unprecedent changes in air pollution concentrations. The interannual meteorological variability of 10 years was also considered in the analyses. For a 70% VE, the model predicted: 1) improvements in nitrogen dioxide pollution (-34% to -55% change in annual mean concentrations, for the different air quality stations), 2) a very limited effect on particulate matter concentrations (-1 to -4% change in annual means of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), 3) heterogeneous responses in ground-level ozone concentrations (-2% to +12% change in the annual means of the daily maximum 8-h average concentrations). Even at a high VE increase of 70%, the 2021 World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines will be exceeded for all pollutants in some stations. VE has a potentially important impact in terms of reducing NO₂-associated premature mortality, but complementary strategies for reducing traffic and controlling all different air pollution sources should also be implemented to protect human health.

Air pollution and its associated health risks before and after COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province, China

Air pollution is a serious environmental problem that damages public health. In the present study, we used the segmentation function to improve the health risk-based air quality index (HAQI) and named it new HAQI (NHAQI). To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of air pollutants and the associated health risks in Shaanxi Province before (Period I, 2015-2019) and after (Period II, 2020-2021) COVID-19. The six criteria pollutants were analyzed between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, using the air quality index (AQI), aggregate AQI (AAQI), and NHAQI. The results showed that compared with AAQI and NHAQI, AQI underestimated the combined effects of multiple pollutants. The average concentrations of the six criteria pollutants were lower in Period II than in Period I due to reductions in anthropogenic emissions, with the concentrations of PM_2.5 (particulate matter ≤2.5 μm diameter), PM₁₀ (PM ≤ 10 μm diameter) SO₂, NO₂, O₃, and CO decreased by 23.5%, 22.5%, 45.7%, 17.6%, 2.9%, and 41.6%, respectively. In Period II, the excess risk and the number of air pollution-related deaths decreased considerably by 46.5% and 49%, respectively. The cumulative population distribution estimated using the NHAQI revealed that 61% of the total number of individuals in Shaanxi Province were exposed to unhealthy air during Period I, whereas this proportion decreased to 16% during Period II. Although overall air quality exhibited substantial improvements, the associated health risks in winter remained high.

The relationship between air quality and MODIS aerosol optical depth in major cities of the Yangtze River Delta

The AOD derived from the MODIS deep blue(DB) algorithm and AQI were used to investigate the correlation between AOD and AQI in seven major cities of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from January to December 2019. The accuracy of MODIS AOD was validated by AERONET. Moreover, the AOD and AQI were studied to explore the annual and seasonal distribution characteristics, and the correlation analysis was carried out using five regression models. It was found: Ⅰ) There was a significant correlation between AOD and AERONET data (R² ˃ 0.80, RMSE = 0.106, and MAE = 0.089). Ⅱ) The highest AQI was observed in winter (83), followed by spring (76), autumn (74), and summer (72). Ⅲ) The monthly average AOD showed noticeable seasonal variations, which reached the highest in summer (0.91) and the lowest in winter (0.69), followed by spring and autumn. Ⅳ) Among the five models, the cubic model obtained the best results with R² ˃ 0.55. In the sub-seasonal regression model, the cubic model outperformed other models in spring (R² ˃ 0.57), summer (R² ˃ 0.76) and autumn (R² ˃ 0.38). However, in winter the composite model outperformed others (R² ˃ 0.68). Ⅴ) Considering annual data, the AOD can predict over 70% of the variations in AQI (0.41＜R² ＜0.81). These results demonstrate the feasibility of AOD derived from the MODIS DB algorithm in AQI prediction. The method used in this study can be applied as an aid for air pollution control programs in different regions.