Recent developments in understanding epidemiology and risk determinants of atrial fibrillation as a cause of stroke

Sex Differences in the Expression of Cardiac Remodeling and Inflammatory Cytokines in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Atrial Fibrillation

Although there is a link between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and atrial fibrillation (AF) and numerous investigations have examined the mechanism of AF development in OSA patients, which includes cardiac remodeling, inflammation, and gap junction-related conduction disorder, there is limited information regarding the differences between the sexes. This study analyzes the impact of sex differences on the expression of cardiac remodeling, inflammatory cytokines, and gap junctions in patients with OSA and AF. A total of 154 individuals diagnosed with sleep-related breathing disorders (SRBDs) were enrolled in the study and underwent polysomnography and echocardiography. Significant OSA was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of ≥15 per hour. Exosomes were purified from the plasma of all SRBD patients and incubated in HL-1 cells to investigate their effects on inflammatory cytokines and GJA1 expression. The differences in cardiac remodeling and expression of these biomarkers in both sexes were analyzed. Of the 154 enrolled patients, 110 patients were male and 44 patients were female. The LA sizes and E/e' ratios of male OSA patients with concomitant AF were greater than those of control participants and those without AF (all p < 0.05). Meanwhile, female OSA patients with AF had a lower left ventricular ejection fraction than those OSA patients without AF and control subjects (p < 0.05). Regarding the expression of inflammatory cytokines and GJA1, the mRNA expression levels of GJA1 were lower and those of IL-1β were higher in those male OSA patients with AF than in those male OSA patients without AF and control subjects (p < 0.05). By contrast, mRNA expression levels of HIF-1α were higher in those female OSA patients with and without AF than in control subjects (p < 0.05). In conclusion, our study revealed sex-specific differences in the risk factors and biomarkers associated with AF development in patients with OSA.

Methods for Economic Evaluations of Novel Oral Anticoagulants in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a severe epidemiological and public health concern among the elderly population worldwide, with substantial economic and social burdens. Economic evaluations can play an essential role in optimizing the utilization of scarce resources. In recent years, the number of economic evaluation studies related to AF has increased due to the rising number of AF patients, the continuous updating of clinical data, and the emergence of real-world evidence. However, there are still deficiencies in model settings and parameter sources in relevant studies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to review the existing economic evaluations of novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with AF and summarize the evidence and methods applied.

METHODS

A comprehensive and systematic search was conducted on electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science (WOS), and The Cochrane Library, from the date of database creation to November 2022. The reporting quality of included literature was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS 2022) statement.

RESULTS

A total of 102 studies were included in the review, with 200 comparisons between NOACs and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), as well as 58 comparisons between different NOACs. The healthcare sector and payer perspectives were the most common, and accordingly, the majority of the evaluations considered only direct medical costs. Most studies used Markov cohort models with the number of health states ranging from 4 to 29. Of included studies, 80 (78%) considered event recurrence and complications, and 78 (76%) considered discontinuation and second-line therapy. All of the studies applied uncertainty analysis to explore the robustness of the results. Of all 200 NOACs-VKAs comparisons, 149 (75%) showed that NOACs were more cost-effective; this proportion was 84% (139 out of 165) in high-income countries but decreased to 29% (10 out of 35) in middle- and low-income countries. Most (82%) of the 28 items in the CHEERS 2022 checklist were elucidated in the majority of included studies. A minority (only 39%) of included studies demonstrated high reporting quality.

CONCLUSION

NOACs may be more cost-effective than VKAs in patients with AF, but this conclusion applies to high-income countries, whereas VKAs may be more cost-effective in middle- and low-income countries. The reporting quality of included studies was variable, and certain methodological issues were presented. This study highlights the economic evaluation methodology of NOACs in patients with AF and provides recommendations for modeling methods and future studies.

Construction and Analysis of the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA Network Based on Competing Endogenous RNA in Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Accumulated studies have revealed that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play critical roles in human diseases by acting as competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs). However, functional roles and regulatory mechanisms of lncRNA-mediated ceRNA in atrial fibrillation (AF) remain unknown. In the present study, we aimed to construct the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA network based on ceRNA theory in AF by using bioinformatic analyses of public datasets.

Methods

Microarray data sets of GSE115574 and GSE79768 from the Gene Expression Omnibus database were downloaded. Twenty-one AF right atrial appendage (RAA) samples and 22 sinus rhythm (SR) subjects RAA samples were selected for subsequent analyses. After merging all microarray data and adjusting for batch effect, differentially expressed genes were identified. Gene Ontology (GO) categories and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were carried out. A ceRNA network was constructed.

Result

A total of 8 lncRNAs and 43 mRNAs were significantly differentially expressed with fold change >1.5 (p < 0.05) in RAA samples of AF patients when compared with SR. GO and KEGG pathway analysis showed that cardiac muscle contraction pathway were involved in AF development. The ceRNA was predicted by co-expressing LOC101928304/ LRRC2 from the constructional network analysis, which was competitively combined with miR-490-3p. The expression of LOC101928304 and LRRC were up-regulated in myocardial tissue of patients with AF, while miR-490-3p was down-regulated.

Conclusion

We constructed the LOC101928304/miR-490-3p/LRRC2 network based on ceRNA theory in AF in the bioinformatic analyses of public datasets. The ceRNA network found from this study may help improve our understanding of lncRNA-mediated ceRNA regulatory mechanisms in the pathogenesis of AF.

GJA1 Expression and Left Atrial Remodeling in the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is an important risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). GJA1 gene encoding connexin43, a major protein in cardiac gap junctions, plays a crucial role in the synchronized contraction of the heart and in cardiac arrhythmia. However, little is known regarding the role of GJA1 expression in the incidence of AF in patients with OSAS. All prospectively enrolled OSAS patients underwent polysomnography, electrocardiography, a 24-h Holter test, and echocardiography. Moderate-to-severe OSAS was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥ 15. Exosomes were purified from the plasma of all OSAS patients and incubated in HL-1 cells to investigate the effect of exosomes from patients with and without AF on GJA1 expression. A total of 129 patients were recruited for this study; 26 were excluded due to an AHI < 15. Of the 103 enrolled patients, 21 had AF, and 82 did not. Multivariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus, lower sleep efficiency, lower left ventricular ejection fraction, and larger left atrial (LA) size were independent predictors of AF occurrence in OSAS patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LA with a size ≥38.5 mm for predicting AF occurrence in OSAS patients was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [0.666, 0.925]); p < 0.001). GJA1 expression in HL-1 cells incubated with exosomes from OSAS patients with AF was lower than that with exosomes from patients without AF after controlling for age and sex and was negatively correlated with the AHI and oxygen desaturation index (ODI), especially during the non-rapid eye movement period (NREM) of OSAS patients with AF (all p < 0.05). LA size was an independent predictor of AF occurrence in OSAS patients. The AHI and ODI in the NREM period of OSAS patients with AF were negatively correlated with GJA1 expression in HL-1 cells, which offers a hint that GJA1 may play a crucial role in the development of AF in patients with OSAS.

Trends in Atrial Fibrillation Incidence Rates Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System, 2006 to 2018

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and multiple studies have reported increasing AF incidence rates over time, although the underlying explanations remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 in a community-based setting and to investigate possible explanations for increasing AF by evaluating the changing features of incident AF cases and the pool of patients at risk for AF over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included 500 684 patients who received primary care and other health care services for more than 2 years through a single integrated health care delivery network in Pennsylvania. Data collection was conducted from January 2003 to December 2018. The base study population had no documentation of AF in the electronic medical record for at least 2 years prior to baseline. Data analysis was conducted from May to December 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident AF cases were identified through diagnostic codes recorded at inpatient or outpatient encounters. Age- and sex-adjusted AF incidence rates were estimated by calendar year from 2006 to 2018 both overall and across subgroups, including according to diagnostic setting (inpatient vs outpatient) and priority (primary vs secondary diagnosis).

RESULTS

Among 514 293 patients meeting criteria for the base study population, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 47 (18) years and 282 103 (54.9%) were women; 13 609 (2.6%) met AF diagnostic criteria on or prior to the baseline date and were excluded. Among 500 684 patients free of AF at baseline, standardized AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 increased from 4.74 (95% CI, 4.58-4.90) to 6.82 (95% CI, 6.65-7.00) cases per 1000 person-years, increasing significantly over time (P < .001). Incidence rates increased in all age and sex subgroups, although absolute rate increases were largest among those aged 85 years or older. The fraction of incident AF cases among individuals aged 85 years or older increased from 135 of 1075 (12.6%) in 2006 to 451 of 2427 (18.6%) in 2017. Patients with incident AF were more likely over time to have high body mass index (1351 of 3389 patients [39.9%] in 2006-2008 vs 4504 of 9214 [48.9%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), hypertension (2764 [81.6%] in 2006-2008 vs 7937 [86.1%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), and ischemic stroke (328 [9.7%] in 2006-2008 vs 1455 [15.8%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), but less likely to have coronary artery disease (1533 [45.2%] in 2006-2008 vs 3810 [41.4%] in 2015-2018; P < .001). Among 22 077 new cases of AF, 9146 (41.4%) were diagnosed as inpatients and 5731 (26.0%) as the primary diagnosis. Incidence rates of AF increased significantly in all diagnostic setting and priority pairings (eg, inpatient, primary: rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). Among patients at risk for AF, high BMI and hypertension increased over time (BMI: 71 433 of 198 245 [36.0%] in 2007 to 130 218 of 282 270 [46.1%] in 2017; hypertension: 79 977 [40.3%] in 2007 to 134 404 [47.6%] in 2017). Documentation of short-term ECG increased over time (23 297 of 207 349 [11.2%] in 2008 to 45 027 [16.0%] in 2017); however, long-term ECG monitoring showed no change (1871 [0.9%] in 2007 to 4036 [1.4%] in 2017).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this community-based study, AF incidence rates increased significantly during the study period. Concurrent increases were observed in AF risk factors in the at-risk population and short-term ECG use.

Global epidemiology of atrial fibrillation: An increasing epidemic and public health challenge

Background

Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent cardiac arrhythmia. It has been estimated that 6–12 million people worldwide will suffer this condition in the US by 2050 and 17.9 million people in Europe by 2060. Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke and provokes important economic burden along with significant morbidity and mortality.

Aim

We provide here comprehensive and updated statistics on worldwide epidemiology of atrial fibrillation.

Methods

An electronic search was conducted for atrial fibrillation. The epidemiologic information was retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange database, which is regarded as one of the most comprehensive worldwide catalogs of surveys, censuses, vital statistics, and other health-related data.

Results

A total of 3.046 million new cases of atrial fibrillation worldwide were registered in the database during 2017. The estimated incidence rate for 2017 (403/millions inhabitants) was 31% higher than the corresponding incidence in 1997. The worldwide prevalence of atrial fibrillation is 37,574 million cases (0.51% of worldwide population), increased also by 33% during the last 20 years. The highest burden is seen in countries with high socio-demographic index, though the largest recent increased occurred in middle socio-demographic index countries. Future projections suggest that absolute atrial fibrillation burden may increase by >60% in 2050.

Conclusions

Our analyses suggest that atrial fibrillation incidence and prevalence have increased over the last 20 years and will continue to increase over the next 30 years, especially in countries with middle socio-demographic index, becoming one of the largest epidemics and public health challenges.

Atrial Fibrillation Progression Is Associated with Cell Senescence Burden as Determined by p53 and p16 Expression

Background: Whilst the link between aging and thrombogenicity in atrial fibrillation (AF) is well established, the cellular underlying mechanisms are unknown. In AF, the role of senescence in tissue remodeling and prothrombotic state remains unclear. Aims: We investigated the link between AF and senescence by comparing the expression of senescence markers (p53 and p16), with prothrombotic and inflammatory proteins in right atrial appendages from patients in AF and sinus rhythm (SR). Methods: The right atrial appendages of 147 patients undergoing open-heart surgery were harvested. Twenty-one non-valvular AF patients, including paroxysmal (PAF) or permanent AF (PmAF), were matched with 21 SR patients according to CHA2DS2-VASc score and treatment. Protein expression was assessed by tissue lysates Western blot analysis. Results: The expression of p53, p16, and tissue factor (TF) was significantly increased in AF compared to SR (0.91 ± 0.31 vs. 0.58 ± 0.31, p = 0.001; 0.76 ± 0.32 vs. 0.35 ± 0.18, p = 0.0001; 0.88 ± 0.32 vs. 0.68 ± 0.29, p = 0.045, respectively). Expression of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) was lower in AF (0.25 ± 0.15 vs. 0.35 ± 0.12, p = 0.023). There was a stepwise increase of p53, p16, TF, matrix metalloproteinase-9, and an eNOS progressive decrease between SR, PAF, and PmAF. AF was the only predictive factor of p53 and p16 elevation in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: The study brought new evidence indicating that AF progression is strongly related to human atrial senescence burden and points at a link between senescence, thrombogenicity, endothelial dysfunction and atrial remodeling.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the development of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). More insight into the epidemiology and underlying mechanisms is required to optimize management.

METHODS

The Rotterdam Study is a large, population-based cohort study with long-term follow-up. Time dependent Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study the effect of COPD on incident AF, adjusted for age, sex and pack years of cigarette smoking, and additionally stratified according to exacerbation frequency, left atrial size and baseline systemic inflammatory levels.

RESULTS

1369 of 10,943 subjects had COPD, of whom 804 developed AF. The AF incidence rate was 14 per 1000 person years in COPD and 8 per 1000 person years in subjects without COPD. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for COPD subjects to develop AF as compared to subjects without COPD was 1.28 (95%CI [1.04, 1.57]). COPD subjects with frequent exacerbations had a twofold increased AF risk (HR 1.99 [1.42, 2.79]) and COPD subjects with a left atrial size ≥40 mm also had an elevated AF risk (HR 1.77 [1.07, 2.94]). COPD subjects with baseline systemic inflammatory levels above the median had significantly increased AF risks (hsCRP≥1.83 mg/L: HR 1.51 [1.13, 2.03] and IL6 ≥ 1.91 ng/L: HR 2.49 [1.18, 5.28]), whereas COPD subjects below the median had in both analyses no significantly increased AF risk.

CONCLUSIONS

COPD subjects had a 28% increased AF risk, which further increased with frequent exacerbations and an enlarged left atrium. The risk was driven by COPD subjects having elevated systemic inflammatory levels.

Atrial fibrillation in the Middle East: unmapped, underdiagnosed, undertreated

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest persistent cardiac arrhythmia with an estimated incidence rate of between 1.5-2% and an important cause of strokes. Few epidemiological studies and clinical trials on the management of AF have been conducted outside Europe and North America. These gaps in our understanding of AF likely lead to sub-optimal management of patients with AF in the rest of the world. Areas covered: We discuss the epidemiology, treatment and clinical outcomes for AF in the Middle East after systematic review of published work for AF from the Middle East. We also discuss important clinical trials on AF conducted in the West in the same period to help contextualize our findings. Expert commentary: The few available Middle East studies suggest important epidemiological differences between Middle Eastern and Western AF populations. In particular, the Middle Eastern AF population is younger and have more co-morbidities than patients in the West. We find that significant numbers of moderate to high risk patients with AF are either undertreated or untreated placing them at increased risk of complications such as stroke. More studies in the Middle Eastern population are required to aid the development of region-specific clinical guidelines to improve patient care.

Clinical Prediction Model for Time in Therapeutic Range While on Warfarin in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Though warfarin has historically been the primary oral anticoagulant for stroke prevention in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), several new direct oral anticoagulants may be preferred when anticoagulation control with warfarin is expected to be poor. This study developed a prediction model for time in therapeutic range (TTR) among newly diagnosed AF patients on newly initiated warfarin as a tool to assist decision making between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This electronic medical record-based, retrospective study included newly diagnosed, nonvalvular AF patients with no recent warfarin exposure receiving primary care services through a large healthcare system in rural Pennsylvania. TTR was estimated as the percentage of time international normalized ratio measurements were between 2.0 and 3.0 during the first year following warfarin initiation. Candidate predictors of TTR were chosen from data elements collected during usual clinical care. A TTR prediction model was developed and temporally validated and its predictive performance was compared with the SAMe-TT2R2 score (sex, age, medical history, treatment, tobacco, race) using R2 and c-statistics. A total of 7877 newly diagnosed AF patients met study inclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) TTR within the first year of starting warfarin was 51% (32, 67). Of 85 candidate predictors evaluated, 15 were included in the final validated model with an R2 of 15.4%. The proposed model showed better predictive performance than the SAMe-TT2R2 score (R2=3.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed prediction model may assist decision making on the proper mode of oral anticoagulant among newly diagnosed AF patients. However, predicting TTR on warfarin remains challenging.

Involvement of alpha- and beta-adrenoceptors in the automaticity of the isolated guinea pig pulmonary vein myocardium

We examined the involvement of adrenoceptors in the automaticity of the pulmonary vein myocardium, which probably plays a crucial role in the generation of atrial fibrillation. The automatic activity of the myocardium in guinea pig pulmonary vein tissue preparations were monitored by contractile force or membrane potential measurement. In quiescent preparations, application of noradrenaline induced an automatic activity. The firing frequency was reduced by prazosin or atenolol. Methoxamine induced an automatic activity of low frequency, which was accelerated by further application of isoproterenol. In preparations driven at a constant frequency, noradrenaline, in the presence of atenolol, caused a depolarizing shift of the resting membrane potential and an increase in the slope of the diastolic depolarization. In contrast, in the presence of prazosin, noradrenaline had no effect on the slope, but caused acceleration of the late repolarization and a hyperpolarizing shift of the maximum diastolic potential. At clinically relevant concentrations, carvedilol significantly inhibited the noradrenaline-induced activity but bisoprolol did not. It was concluded that α₁- and β₁-adrenoceptor stimulation enhance automaticity through different mechanisms in the guinea pig pulmonary vein myocardium. Dual blockade of these adrenoceptors appears to be effective for suppressing noradrenaline-induced pulmonary vein automaticity and probably atrial fibrillation.

CHA2DS2-VASc score, left atrial size and atrial fibrillation as stroke risk factors in the Tromsø Study

Objective

CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, left atrial (LA) size and atrial fibrillation (AF) have individually been associated with stroke risk. Our aim was to investigate the predictive ability of combinations of these factors for the odds of incident stroke in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

We followed 2844 participants from the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2012. Information on LA size and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (age, sex, congestive heart failure, hypertension, vascular disease, stroke and diabetes) were obtained at baseline. AF status was recorded from medical records. The outcome measure was all strokes. The association between covariates and stroke was investigated by means of multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 325 participants (45% women, mean age at baseline 59.3 years) had a stroke. Incidence rates for stroke were 6.4 in women and 8.4 in men per 1000 person-years. Participants with CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥1 and LA size <2.8 had ∼4 times (95% CI 2.6 to 5.3) increased odds of stroke, whereas participants with CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥1 and LA size ≥2.8 had ∼9 times (95% CI 5.3 to 16.4) increased odds of stroke, compared with participants with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0, irrespective of AF status. Adjustment for significant covariates had minimal impact on the OR estimates.

Conclusions

Combining CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥1 and enlarged LA size identified participants with high odds of stroke regardless of AF status.

Predictors and long-term clinical outcomes of newly developed atrial fibrillation in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate predictors and long-term prognosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) following cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation in patients without history of AF.

METHODS

From May 1994 to April 2014, 1825 patients with CIED were enrolled in a retrospective, single-center registry. A total of 880 patients from the registry without prior documented AF history were included in the final analysis and were placed into either non-detected AF (NDAF) group or CIED-detected AF group according to development of AF over a follow-up period of 7 years. AF development was defined as any paroxysmal atrial tachyarrhythmia (atrial rate ≥ 180 beats/min) lasting at least 5 minutes according to CIED records.

RESULTS

Overall, 122 (13.8%) of the 880 patients experienced new development of AF during follow-up period. According to multivariate analysis, the independent predictors for development of AF were prior heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 2.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-3.85; P < 0.001), prior sinus node dysfunction (HR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.62-3.55; P < 0.001), and left atrium volume index of 38.5 mL/m or more (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.23-3.30; P = 0.005). In CDAF group, the risk of heart failure readmission (adjusted HR, 3.79; 95% CI, 1.99-7.22; P < 0.001) and stroke readmission (adjusted HR, 5.33; 95% CI, 1.58-17.97; P = 0.007) was higher than in nondetected AF group.

CONCLUSION

In patients with CIED, prior history of heart failure, sinus node dysfunction, and LA volume index ≥38.5 mL/m were independent predictors of new AF cases. Newly developed AF was significantly associated with increased risk of HF and stroke readmission, according to long-term follow up.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests (CoaguChek system, INRatio2 PT/INR monitor and ProTime Microcoagulation system) for the self-monitoring of the coagulation status of people receiving long-term vitamin K antagonist therapy, compared with standard UK practice: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Self-monitoring (self-testing and self-management) could be a valid option for oral anticoagulation therapy monitoring in the NHS, but current evidence on its clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness is limited.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care coagulometers for the self-monitoring of coagulation status in people receiving long-term vitamin K antagonist therapy, compared with standard clinic monitoring.

DATA SOURCES

We searched major electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Bioscience Information Service, Science Citation Index and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) from 2007 to May 2013. Reports published before 2007 were identified from the existing Cochrane review (major databases searched from inception to 2007). The economic model parameters were derived from the clinical effectiveness review, other relevant reviews, routine sources of cost data and clinical experts' advice.

REVIEW METHODS

We assessed randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating self-monitoring in people with atrial fibrillation or heart valve disease requiring long-term anticoagulation therapy. CoaguChek(®) XS and S models (Roche Diagnostics, Basel, Switzerland), INRatio2(®) PT/INR monitor (Alere Inc., San Diego, CA USA), and ProTime Microcoagulation system(®) (International Technidyne Corporation, Nexus Dx, Edison, NJ, USA) coagulometers were compared with standard monitoring. Where possible, we combined data from included trials using standard inverse variance methods. Risk of bias assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. A de novo economic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness over a 10-year period.

RESULTS

We identified 26 RCTs (published in 45 papers) with a total of 8763 participants. CoaguChek was used in 85% of the trials. Primary analyses were based on data from 21 out of 26 trials. Only four trials were at low risk of bias. Major clinical events: self-monitoring was significantly better than standard monitoring in preventing thromboembolic events [relative risk (RR) 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.84; p = 0.004]. In people with artificial heart valves (AHVs), self-monitoring almost halved the risk of thromboembolic events (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.82; p = 0.003) and all-cause mortality (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.92; p = 0.02). There was greater reduction in thromboembolic events and all-cause mortality through self-management but not through self-testing. Intermediate outcomes: self-testing, but not self-management, showed a modest but significantly higher percentage of time in therapeutic range, compared with standard care (weighted mean difference 4.44, 95% CI 1.71 to 7.18; p = 0.02). Patient-reported outcomes: improvements in patients' quality of life related to self-monitoring were observed in six out of nine trials. High preference rates were reported for self-monitoring (77% to 98% in four trials). Net health and social care costs over 10 years were £7295 (self-monitoring with INRatio2); £7324 (standard care monitoring); £7333 (self-monitoring with CoaguChek XS) and £8609 (self-monitoring with ProTime). The estimated quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain associated with self-monitoring was 0.03. Self-monitoring with INRatio2 or CoaguChek XS was found to have ≈ 80% chance of being cost-effective, compared with standard monitoring at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with standard monitoring, self-monitoring appears to be safe and effective, especially for people with AHVs. Self-monitoring, and in particular self-management, of anticoagulation status appeared cost-effective when pooled estimates of clinical effectiveness were applied. However, if self-monitoring does not result in significant reductions in thromboembolic events, it is unlikely to be cost-effective, based on a comparison of annual monitoring costs alone. Trials investigating the longer-term outcomes of self-management are needed, as well as direct comparisons of the various point-of-care coagulometers.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013004944.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Atrial fibrillation in the Indigenous populations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States: a systematic scoping review

Background

The epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) among Indigenous minorities in affluent countries is poorly delineated, despite the high cardiovascular disease burden in these populations. We undertook a systematic scoping review examining the epidemiology of AF in the Indigenous populations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand (NZ) and the United States (US).

Methods

PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE and CINAHL-Plus databases were systematically searched in May 2014. Supplementary full-text searches of Google Scholar and government website searches were also undertaken.

Results

Key findings from 27 publications with diverse aims and methods were included. Small studies from Canada and NZ suggest higher AF prevalence in Indigenous than other populations. However, this was not reflected in a large sample of US male military veterans. No data were identified on community-based incidence rates of AF in Indigenous populations. Australian and Canadian studies indicate higher first-ever and overall AF hospitalisation rates among Indigenous than other populations, at younger ages and with more comorbidity. Studies in stroke, heart failure and other clinical groups demonstrate AF as a common comorbidity, with AF possibly more prevalent at younger ages in Indigenous people. Indigenous patients have similar early post-hospitalisation adjusted mortality but higher 1-year risk-adjusted mortality than non-Indigenous patients.

Conclusions

No clear epidemiological pattern of AF frequency across the considered Indigenous populations emerges from the limited available evidence. AF should be included in key conditions reported in national surveillance reports, although Indigenous identifiers are required in administrative data from Canada and the US. Sufficiently powered, community-based studies of AF epidemiology in diverse Indigenous populations are needed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-015-0081-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Obesity, metabolic syndrome and risk of atrial fibrillation: a Swedish, prospective cohort study

Aim

We aimed to investigate whether different measures of obesity could similarly predict atrial fibrillation, and whether the atrial fibrillation risk associated with obesity is dependent on presence of metabolic syndrome.

Material and Methods

We performed our study in a population-based longitudinal cardiovascular study, comprising 1 924 men and 2 097 women, aged 60 years, from Stockholm. Body mass index, waist circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter and components of metabolic syndrome (systolic- and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol) were recorded at baseline. Participants were classified by their body mass index (normal weight, overweight or obese), waist circumference (normal, semi-elevated or elevated), and according to presence of metabolic syndrome. Atrial fibrillation risk was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for common atrial fibrillation risk factors, expressed as HR and 95% CI.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 285 incident atrial fibrillation cases were recorded. One standard deviation increment of each obesity measure was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk as: body mass index 1.25 (1.12 – 1.40), waist circumference 1.35 (1.19 – 1.54) and sagittal abdominal diameter 1.28 (1.14 – 1.44). Compared to normal weight subjects without metabolic syndrome, increased atrial fibrillation risk was noted for overweight subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.67 (1.16 – 2.41), obese subjects without metabolic syndrome, 1.75 (1.11 – 2.74) and obese subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.92 (1.34 – 2.74). Compared to subjects with normal waist circumference without metabolic syndrome, subjects with elevated waist circumference and metabolic syndrome suffered increased atrial fibrillation risk, 2.03 (1.44 – 2.87).

Conclusions

Body mass index, waist circumference and sagittal abdominal diameter could similarly predict atrial fibrillation. Obesity was associated with an increased atrial fibrillation risk regardless of metabolic syndrome, whereas overweight and elevated waist circumference was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk only if metabolic syndrome was present.

Association between diastolic dysfunction and future atrial fibrillation in the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2010

Objective

To investigate the association between echocardiographic measurements with emphasis on diastolic dysfunction and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

We followed 2406 participants from the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2010. Left atrial (LA) size and mitral Doppler indices as measured by echocardiography were used for evaluating diastolic dysfunction. Information concerning age, systolic blood pressure, height, heart rate, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, self-reported use of alcohol, smoking, coffee, physical activity, antihypertensive treatment, prevalent coronary heart disease, valvular heart disease, heart failure, hypertrophy, diabetes and palpitations were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was clinical AF, documented by an ECG.

Results

AF was detected in 462 subjects (193 women). Mean age at baseline was 62.6 years. Incidence rate of clinical AF was 12.6 per 1000 person-years. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, moderately enlarged LA was associated with 60% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.0) increased risk of AF. Severely enlarged LA had HR for AF of 4.2 (95% CI 2.7 to 6.5) with p value for linear trend <0.001, and the association was similar in both sexes. Abnormal mitral Doppler flow adjusted for predictor variables did not show a statistically significant association with AF risk. However, when LA size was also adjusted for, the risk of AF increased by 30% (95% CI 1.0 to 1.6).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that enlarged LA as a measure for diastolic dysfunction is a significant risk factor for AF in both sexes, and adding measures of abnormal diastolic flow increased the predictive ability significantly.

Pulse pressure is not an independent predictor of incident atrial fibrillation in 60-year-old men and women

AIM

To evaluate if pulse pressure (PP) is a risk predictor for atrial fibrillation (AF) in a longitudinal study of 60-year-old men and women from Stockholm (n = 4,232), free from AF at baseline, with primary end-point incident AF.

METHODS

AF diagnoses were obtained from the national hospital discharge register. The estimated risk of AF associated with increasing PP values was calculated according to PP values above median (>52.5 mmHg) and according to 1-SD increase (14 mmHg) in PP, using a crude and an adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression model.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 286 incident AF cases were recorded. The number of AF cases increased significantly with increasing PP quartile in men but not in women. PP values above median were associated with increased AF risk (crude HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.28-2.06; p < 0.001), but risk estimates were attenuated after adjustment for common AF risk factors. When PP was entered in the Cox regression model as a continuous variable, the risk of AF did not change by 1-SD PP increase (adjusted HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.91-1.20; p = 0.560).

CONCLUSIONS

PP seems not to be associated with incident AF in a Swedish population of 60-year-old men and women.

MicroRNAs and atrial fibrillation: mechanisms and translational potential

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained arrhythmia in clinical practice, is an important contributor to cardiac morbidity and mortality. Pharmacological approaches currently available to treat patients with AF lack sufficient efficacy and are associated with potential adverse effects. Even though ablation is generally more effective than pharmacotherapy, this invasive procedure has considerable potential complications and is limited by long-term recurrences. Novel therapies based on the underlying molecular mechanisms of AF can provide useful alternatives to current treatments. MicroRNAs (miRNAs), endogenous short RNA sequences that regulate gene expression, have been implicated in the control of AF, providing novel insights into the molecular basis of the pathogenesis of AF and suggesting miRNA targeting as a potential approach for the management of this common arrhythmia. In this Review, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the current experimental evidence supporting miRNAs as important factors in AF and discuss their therapeutic implications. We first provide background information on the pathophysiology of AF and the biological determinants of miRNA synthesis and action, followed by experimental evidence for miRNA-mediated regulation of AF, and finally provide a comprehensive overview of miRNAs as potential novel therapeutic targets for AF.

New directions in cardiac arrhythmia management: present challenges and future solutions

Cardiac arrhythmias are a major contributor to population morbidity and mortality. Enormous advances in arrhythmia management have occurred over the 60 years since the founding of the Montreal Heart Institute, but important challenges remain. The purpose of this article is to identify the areas of cardiac arrhythmia therapy that need improvement and to discuss the evolving approaches that promise solutions. Challenges in diagnosis, detection, and risk-stratification include difficulties in separating benign from high-risk syncope and pinpointing the underlying causes, the detection of silent atrial fibrillation in patients at risk of stroke, and inadequate identification of sudden-death risk. Implantable devices are limited by the need for battery and device replacements, device complications like infection and dysfunction, and lead complications like fracture, infection, or displacement. Antiarrhythmic drug therapy, although widely used, is plagued by a very limited range of available agents, supply issues, insufficient efficacy, and significant adverse effect risk. Health economic concerns include the high cost of new technologies, challenges in establishing cost effectiveness, and restrictive practices of government or third-party payers. Major improvements in arrhythmia management can be expected from new discoveries and technological developments in genetics, innovative diagnostic tools for arrhythmia monitoring, imaging and analysis, new approaches to antiarrhythmic drug development, biological therapies, and continuing improvement in implantable device technology like further miniaturization, leadless technology, and use of novel energy sources. As exciting as the developments in arrhythmia management have been in the past, we can look forward to exponential improvement in our ability to manage arrhythmia patients in the near future.