Modeling the impact of a new vaccine on pneumococcal and nontypable Haemophilus influenzae diseases: a new simulation model

Pneumococcal Conjugated Vaccines Decreased Acute Otitis Media Burden: A Population-Based Study in Israel

OBJECTIVE

To study time trends in all-cause acute otitis media (AOM) burden by calculating incidence rates of AOM episodes and recurrent acute otitis media (rAOM) cases in highly immunized pediatric population during the pre- and post-pneumococcal conjugated vaccine (PCV) years.

STUDY DESIGN

In this population-based study, AOM episodes and rAOM cases were identified in Clalit Health Services-insured Israeli children aged 0-10 years between 2005 and 2018 by using a data-sharing platform. Because a near-sequential implementation of PCV-7/PCV-13 occurred within a 1-year period (2009/2010), we compared AOM visits before (2005-July 2009) and after (August 2009-2018) the introduction of PCVs. We focused on children younger than 2 years of age, who are the target population of PCVs and are at AOM peak age.

RESULTS

We identified 805 389 AOM episodes contributed by 270 137 children. The median number of AOM episodes was 2 (IQR 1-4). A downward trend of incidence rates of AOM episodes was observed during the post-PCV years in children younger than age 9 years (P < .001). The largest decrease (21%) was observed in children younger than 1 year, from 807/1000 children during the pre-PCV years to 640/1000 during the post-PCV years (P < .001). An average annual decrease of ∼14/1000 AOM episodes was calculated in children younger than 1 year old (β = -13.39, 95% CI -16.25 to -10.53, P < .001). Of rAOM cases, documented in 84 237 (31.2%) children, 74% were in children younger than 2 years, and 55% were in boys. The risk to develop rAOM significantly decreased during the post-PCV years in children younger than 2 years (hazard ratio 0.893, 95% CI 0.878-0.908; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

AOM burden significantly decreased following PCVs introduction in highly immunized children.

Constrained Optimization for Pneumococcal Vaccination in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To identify the most cost-efficient combination of pneumococcal vaccines in infants and aging adults for a 10-year period in Brazil.

METHODS

Constrained optimization (CO) prioritized 9 pneumococcal vaccine regimens according to their gain in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and their related costs over a prespecified time horizon with defined constraints for 2 age groups, infants and aging adults. The analysis starts from the current universal infant vaccination of pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV), 2 primary and 1 booster dose at 2, 4, and 12 months, respectively. Key constraints are the fixed annual vaccine budget increase and the relative return on investment (ROI_R) per regimen, which must be > 1, the reference intervention being the current vaccination strategy in infants and the most cost-efficient one in aging adults.

RESULTS

The CO analysis including all the constraints indicates that over 10 years the maximum extra health gain is 126 194 QALYs for an extra budget of $974 million Brazilian reals (ROI_R = 1.15). Results could be improved with a higher proportion of the at-risk population in aging adults, less herd effect, and better QALY scores.

CONCLUSION

The study shows that with 4 constraints on budget, time horizon, vaccine coverage, and cost efficiency, a CO analysis could identify the most cost-efficient overall pneumococcal vaccination strategy for Brazil, allowing for limited vaccine budget increase while obtaining appropriate health gain.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of the 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine for children in Taiwan

Background

Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) are substantial contributors to morbidity and mortality of diseases including invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPDs), pneumonia and acute otitis media (AOM) worldwide. In Taiwan, 10-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide and NTHi protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) are licensed in children against pneumococcal disease. In addition to S. pneumoniae, clinical trials suggest efficacy of PHiD-CV against NTHi AOM. This study aims at evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a 2 + 1 schedule of PHiD-CV vs. PCV13 2 + 1 in the universal mass vaccination program of infants in Taiwan.

Methods

A published Markov cohort model was adapted to simulate the epidemiological burden of IPD, pneumonia and AOM for a birth cohort in Taiwan over 10 years. The probability of entering a specific health state was based on the incidence rate of the diseases. Only direct medical costs were included, and costs and outcomes were discounted annually. Vaccine efficacy assumptions were based on published data and validated by a panel of independent experts. Clinical, epidemiological, and serotype distribution data were based on locally published data or the National Health Insurance Research Database. Price parity of vaccines was assumed. Published pneumococcal disease-related disutility weights were used due to lack of local data. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated and benchmarked against the recommended threshold in Taiwan. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis, alternative scenarios and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the results.

Results

PHiD-CV would potentially reduce the number of NTHi-related AOM cases substantially and prevent comparable IPD and pneumonia-related cases and deaths compared to PCV13. Over a 10-year horizon, PHiD-CV is estimated to dominate PCV13, saving 6.7 million New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) and saving 21 quality-adjusted life years. The result was robust over a wide range of sensitivity analyses. The dominance of PHiD-CV was demonstrated in 90.5% of the simulations.

Conclusions

PHiD-CV 2 + 1 would provide comparable prevention of IPD, pneumonia cases and additional reduction of NTHi-AOM cases, and is considered dominant compared with PCV13 2 + 1 in Taiwan.

Immune Network Modeling Predicts Specific Nasopharyngeal and Peripheral Immune Dysregulation in Otitis-Prone Children

Acute otitis media (AOM) pathogenesis involves nasopharyngeal colonization by potential otopathogens and a viral co-infection. Stringently-defined otitis prone (sOP) children show characteristic patterns of immune dysfunction. We hypothesized that otitis proneness is largely a result of altered signaling between immune components that are otherwise competent, resulting in increased susceptibility to infection by bacterial otopathogens. To test this, we constructed a regulatory immune network model linking immune cells and signaling elements known to be involved in AOM and/or dysregulated in sOP children. The alignment of immune response mechanisms with data from in vivo and in vitro experimental observations produced 82 putative immune network models, each describing variants of immune regulatory networks consistent with available observations. Analysis of these models suggested that new measurements of serum levels of IL-4 and CXCL8 could refine competing models and resulted in the elimination of 38 of the models. Further analysis of the remaining 44 models suggested specific deviations in the predicted regulation of nasopharyngeal and peripheral immunity during response to AOM. Specifically, immune responses active in sOP children during AOM were characterized by early and constitutive activation of pro-inflammatory signaling in the nasopharynx and a Th2- and Treg-dominated profile in the periphery. We conclude that sOP children have altered regulation of key immune mediators during both health and pathogenesis. This altered regulation may be amenable to therapeutic intervention.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccinations in Chinese infants

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) compared to a no vaccination strategy in Chinese infants.

METHODS

A Markov process model was developed to examine the outcomes of PCV-13 against a no vaccination strategy using data and assumptions adapted for relevance to China. Outcomes over a lifetime horizon are presented. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared to no vaccination, a PCV-13 vaccination program would provide a gain of 0.009 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per subject. From the health care and societal perspectives, the incremental costs per QALY were $20,709 and 18,483, respectively. When herd effect was included, the cost effectiveness of the PCV-13 vaccination strategy was notably improved. The lower price of PCV-13 will improve the cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCV-13 vaccination is likely to be cost-effective at the current Chinese prices and ceiling threshold ($8,382).

Measuring the Benefits of Healthcare: DALYs and QALYs - Does the Choice of Measure Matter? A Case Study of Two Preventive Interventions

Background: The measurement of health benefits is a key issue in health economic evaluations. There is very scarce empirical literature exploring the differences of using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as benefit metrics and their potential impact in decision-making.

Methods: Two previously published models delivering outputs in QALYs, were adapted to estimate DALYs: a Markov model for human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, and a pneumococcal vaccination deterministic model (PNEUMO). Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom studies were used, where local EQ-5D social value weights were available to provide local QALY weights. A primary study with descriptive vignettes was done (n = 73) to obtain EQ-5D data for all health states included in both models. Several scenario analyses were carried-out to evaluate the relative importance of using different metrics (DALYS or QALYs) to estimate health benefits on these economic evaluations.

Results: QALY gains were larger than DALYs avoided in all countries for HPV, leading to more favorable decisions using the former. With discounting and age-weighting – scenario with greatest differences in all countries – incremental DALYs avoided represented the 75%, 68%, and 43% of the QALYs gained in Argentina, Chile, and United Kingdom respectively. Differences using QALYs or DALYs were less consistent and sometimes in the opposite direction for PNEUMO. These differences, similar to other widely used assumptions, could directly influence decision-making using usual gross domestic products (GDPs) per capita per DALY or QALY thresholds.

Conclusion: We did not find evidence that contradicts current practice of many researchers and decision-makers of using QALYs or DALYs interchangeably. Differences attributed to the choice of metric could influence final decisions, but similarly to other frequently used assumptions.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of infant pneumococcal vaccination with PHiD-CV in Korea

Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) can cause invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM). Both the 10-valent pneumococcal NTHi protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) and the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) are included in the National Immunization Program for infants in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 3+1 schedule of PHiD-CV versus that of PCV-13 for National Immunization Program in Korea.

Methods: A published Markov model was adapted to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating the 2012 birth cohort with PHiD-CV vs. PCV-13 from the Korean government perspective over 10 y. Best available published data were used for epidemiology, vaccine efficacy and disutilities. Data on incidence and direct medical costs were taken from the national insurance claims database. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the robustness of the results.

Results: PHiD-CV was projected to prevent an additional 195,262 cases of pneumococcal diseases and NTHi-related diseases vs. PCV-13, with a substantially greater reduction in NTHi-related AOM and a comparable reduction in IPD and community-acquired pneumonia. Parity-priced PHiD-CV generated a health gain of about 844 quality-adjusted life years and a total cost-saving of approximately 4 million United States Dollars (USD) over 10 y. 93% of probabilistic simulations found PHiD-CV 3+1 to be the dominant vaccine option.

Conclusion: Compared to PCV-13, PHiD-CV was projected to provide similar prevention against IPD and community-acquired pneumonia but would prevent more cases of AOM. Parity-priced PHiD-CV was anticipated to generate substantial cost-savings and health benefits vs. PCV-13 in Korea.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pneumococcal vaccination for infants in China

BACKGROUND

Although China has a high burden of pneumococcal disease among young children, the government does not administer publicly-funded pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) through its Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of publicly-funded PCV-7, PCV-10, and PCV-13 vaccination programs for infants in China.

METHODS

Using a Markov model, we simulated a cohort of 16 million Chinese infants to estimate the impact of PCV-7, PCV-10, and PCV-13 vaccination programs from a societal perspective. We extrapolated health states to estimate the effects of the programs over the course of a lifetime of 75years. Parameters in the model were derived from a review of the literature.

RESULTS

We found that PCV-7, PCV-10, and PCV-13 vaccination programs would be cost-effective compared to no vaccination. However, PCV-13 had the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ($11,464/QALY vs $16,664/QALY for PCV-10 and $18,224/QALY for PCV-7) due to a reduction in overall costs. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were most sensitive to the utility of acute otitis media, the cost of PCV-13, and the incidence of pneumonia and acute otitis media.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese government should take steps to reduce the burden of pneumococcal diseases among young children through the inclusion of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in its EPI. Although all vaccinations would be cost-effective, PCV-13 would save more costs to the healthcare system and would be the preferred strategy.

Choosing between 7-, 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in childhood: a review of economic evaluations (2006-2014)

BACKGROUND

Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7) have been used in children for more than a decade. Given the observed increase in disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes not covered by PCV7, an increasing number of countries are switching from 7-valent to 10- and 13-valent PCVs ("PCV10" and "PCV13"). Economic evaluations are important tools to inform decisions and price negotiations to make such a switch.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to provide a critical assessment of economic evaluations involving PCV10 or PCV13, published since 2006.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science (SCI and SSCI) and Pubmed to retrieve, select and review relevant studies, which were archived between 1st January 2006 and 31st January 2014. The review protocol involved standard extraction of assumptions, methods, results and sponsorships from the original studies.

RESULTS

Sixty-three economic evaluations on PCVs published since January 2006 were identified. About half of these evaluated PCV10 and/or PCV13, the subject of this review. At current prices, both PCV13 and PCV10 were likely judged preferable to PCV7. However, the combined uncertainty related to price differences, burden of disease, vaccine effectiveness, herd and serotype replacement effects determine the preference base for either PCV10 or PCV13. The pivotal assumptions and results of these analyses also depended on which manufacturer sponsored the study.

CONCLUSION

A more thorough exploration of uncertainty should be made in future analyses on this subject, as we lack understanding to adequately model herd and serotype replacement effects to reliably predict the population impact of PCVs. The introduction of further improved PCVs in an environment of evolving antibiotic resistance and under the continuing influence of previous PCVs implies that the complexity and data requirements for relevant analyses will further increase. Decision makers using these analyses should not just rely on an analysis from a single manufacturer.

Modeling the impact of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Chinese infants: an economic analysis of a compulsory vaccination

Background

The purpose of this study was to compare, from a Chinese societal perspective, the projected health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of adding pneumococcal conjugate heptavalent vaccine (PCV-7) to the routine compulsory child immunization schedule.

Methods

A decision-tree model, with data and assumptions adapted for relevance to China, was developed to project the health outcomes of PCV-7 vaccination (compared with no vaccination) over a 5-year period as well as a lifetime. The vaccinated birth cohort included 16,000,000 children in China. A 2 + 1 dose schedule at US$136.51 per vaccine dose was used in the base-case analysis. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. The impact of a net indirect effect (herd immunity) was evaluated. Outcomes are presented in terms of the saved disease burden, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Results

In a Chinese birth cohort, a PCV-7 vaccination program would reduce the number of pneumococcus-related infections by at least 32% and would prevent 2,682 deaths in the first 5 years of life, saving $1,190 million in total costs and gaining an additional 9,895 QALYs (discounted by 3%). The incremental cost per QALY was estimated to be $530,354. When herd immunity was taken into account, the cost per QALY was estimated to be $95,319. The robustness of the model was influenced mainly by the PCV-7 cost per dose, effectiveness herd immunity and incidence of pneumococcal diseases. With and without herd immunity, the break-even costs in China were $29.05 and $25.87, respectively.

Conclusions

Compulsory routine infant vaccination with PCV-7 is projected to substantially reduce pneumococcal disease morbidity, mortality, and related costs in China. However, a universal vaccination program with PCV-7 is not cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold that is currently recommended for China by the World Health Organization.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children in six Latin American countries

Background

A recently developed 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable H influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) is expected to afford protection against more than two thirds of isolates causing IPD in children in Latin America, and also against acute otitis media caused by both Spn and NTHi. The objective of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of PHiD-CV in comparison to non-vaccination in children under 10 years of age in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

Methods

We used a static, deterministic, compartmental simulation model. The dosing regimen considered included three vaccine doses (at 2 months, 4 months and 6 months) and a booster dose (at 13 months) (3 + 1 schedule). Model outcomes included number of cases prevented, deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and costs. Discount for costs and benefits of long term sequelae was done at 3.5%, and currency reported in 2008-2009 U$S varying between countries.

Results

The largest effect in case prevention was observed in pneumococcal meningitis (from 27% in Peru to 47% in Colombia), neurologic sequelae after meningitis (from 38% in Peru to 65% in Brazil) and bacteremia (from 42% in Argentina to 49% in Colombia). The proportion of predicted deaths averted annually ranged from 18% in Peru to 33% in Brazil. Overall, the health benefits achieved with PHiD-CV vaccination resulted in a lower QALY loss (from 15% lower in Peru to 26% in Brazil). At a cost of USD 20 per vaccine dose, vaccination was cost-effective in all countries, from being cost saving in Chile to a maximum Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio of 7,088 US$ Dollars per QALY gained. Results were robust in the sensitivity analysis, and scenarios with indirect costs affected results more than those with herd immunity.

Conclusions

The incorporation of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into routine infant immunization programs in Latin American countries could be a cost-effective strategy to improve infant population health in the region.

Pneumococcal 13-valent conjugate vaccine for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease in children and adults

Pneumococcal disease remains a global problem despite the availability of effective conjugate vaccines. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) extends the valency of PCV7 by including six additional serotypes highly associated with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Comparisons between PCV13 and PCV7 or the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine have established noninferiority of PCV13 for both safety and immunogenicity profiles for use in children and adults, respectively. At the end of 2011, PCV13 had been approved and launched in 104 countries worldwide, with 54 including the vaccine in their pediatric national immunization program. Surveillance data from early adopters of PCV13 has indicated reductions are occurring in both overall IPD and IPD caused by the six non-PCV7 serotypes; early reports of serotype replacement in carriage are also emerging. While serotype replacement for PCV7 was observed to varying degrees for both carriage and disease, the extent to which this will occur for PCV13 is yet to be determined.

Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.

Cost-effectiveness of new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Turkey: a decision analytical model

Background

Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, which place a considerable burden on healthcare resources, can be reduced in a cost-effective manner using a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7). We compare the cost effectiveness of a 13-valent PCV (PCV-13) and a 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) with that of PCV-7 in Turkey.

Methods

A cost-utility analysis was conducted and a decision analytical model was used to estimate the proportion of the Turkish population <10 years old that would experience 10 mutually exclusive outcomes over the course of 1 year from a perspective of a healthcare system. Model outcomes were adjusted according to the population demographics and region-specific serotype distribution in Turkey. Health outcomes and direct healthcare costs were simulated for PCV-7, PCV-13 and PHiD-CV.

Results

PCV-13 and PHiD-CV are projected to have a substantial impact on pneumococcal disease in Turkey versus PCV-7, with 2,223 and 3,156 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 2,146 and 2,081 life years, respectively, being saved under a 3+1 schedule. Projections of direct medical costs showed that a PHiD-CV vaccination programme would provide the greatest cost savings, offering additional savings of US$11,718,813 versus PCV-7 and US$8,235,010 versus PCV-13. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that PHiD-CV dominated PCV-13 in terms of QALYs gained and cost savings in 58.3% of simulations.

Conclusion

Under the modeled conditions, PHiD-CV would provide the most cost-effective intervention for reducing pneumococcal disease in Turkish children.

Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

INTRODUCTION

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.

METHODS

A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13.

RESULTS

Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000-62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.

CONCLUSION

Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch.

Comparative analysis of the humoral immune response to Moraxella catarrhalis and Streptococcus pneumoniae surface antigens in children suffering from recurrent acute otitis media and chronic otitis media with effusion

A prospective clinical cohort study was established to investigate the humoral immune response in middle ear fluids (MEF) and serum against bacterial surface proteins in children suffering from recurrent acute otitis media (rAOM) and chronic otitis media with effusion (COME), using Luminex xMAP technology. The association between the humoral immune response and the presence of Moraxella catarrhalis and Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx and middle ear was also studied. The levels of antigen-specific IgG, IgA, and IgM showed extensive interindividual variation. No significant differences in anti-M. catarrhalis and anti-S. pneumoniae serum and MEF median fluorescence intensity (MFI) values (anti-M. catarrhalis and antipneumococcal IgG levels) were observed between the rAOM or COME groups for all antigens tested. No significant differences were observed for M. catarrhalis and S. pneumoniae colonization and serum IgG levels against the Moraxella and pneumococcal antigens. Similar to the antibody response in serum, no significant differences in IgG, IgA, and IgM levels in MEF were observed for all M. catarrhalis and S. pneumoniae antigens between OM M. catarrhalis- or S. pneumoniae-positive and OM M. catarrhalis- or S. pneumonia-negative children suffering from either rAOM or COME. Finally, results indicated a strong correlation between antigen-specific serum and MEF IgG levels. We observed no significant in vivo expressed anti-M. catarrhalis or anti-S. pneumoniae humoral immune responses using a range of putative vaccine candidate proteins. Other factors, such as Eustachian tube dysfunction, viral load, and genetic and environmental factors, may play a more important role in the pathogenesis of OM and in particular in the development of rAOM or COME.

Health and economic impact of PHiD-CV in Canada and the UK: a Markov modelling exercise

OBJECTIVE

The spectrum of diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) represents a large burden on healthcare systems around the world. Meningitis, bacteraemia, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and acute otitis media (AOM) are vaccine-preventable infectious diseases that can have severe consequences. The health economic model presented here is intended to estimate the clinical and economic impact of vaccinating birth cohorts in Canada and the UK with the 10-valent, pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) compared with the newly licensed 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13).

METHODS

The model described herein is a Markov cohort model built to simulate the epidemiological burden of pneumococcal- and NTHi-related diseases within birth cohorts in the UK and Canada. Base-case assumptions include estimates of vaccine efficacy and NTHi infection rates that are based on published literature.

RESULTS

The model predicts that the two vaccines will provide a broadly similar impact on all-cause invasive disease and CAP under base-case assumptions. However, PHiD-CV is expected to provide a substantially greater reduction in AOM compared with PCV-13, offering additional savings of Canadian $9.0 million and £4.9 million in discounted direct medical costs in Canada and the UK, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitations of the study are the difficulties in modelling indirect vaccine effects (herd effect and serotype replacement), the absence of PHiD-CV- and PCV-13-specific efficacy data and a lack of comprehensive NTHi surveillance data. Additional limitations relate to the fact that the transmission dynamics of pneumococcal serotypes have not been modelled, nor has antibiotic resistance been accounted for in this paper.

CONCLUSION

This cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, in Canada and the UK, PHiD-CV's potential to protect against NTHi infections could provide a greater impact on overall disease burden than the additional serotypes contained in PCV-13.

Impact of conjugate pneumococcal vaccines on the changing epidemiology of pneumococcal infections

Streptococcus pneumoniae-related infections have a major global impact on healthcare, especially in the developing world, and are considered the number one vaccine-preventable cause of death in children. There are more than 90 pneumococcal serotypes and 46 serogroups. The first capsular polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine was licensed in the USA in 1977 for individuals older than 2 years of age at high risk for pneumococcal disease. Two decades later, the first 7-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine completed the required clinical trials and was introduced as part of the national immunization program of various countries. New-generation vaccines that include emerging serotypes, while maintaining protection against the 7-valent pneumococcal serotypes, have recently been approved. With the addition of these serotypes, the majority of potential pneumococcal serotypes causing invasive disease in most parts of the world could be covered.

Temporal development of the humoral immune response to surface antigens of Moraxella catarrhalis in young infants

The primary Moraxella catarrhalis-specific humoral immune response, and its association with nasopharyngeal colonization, was studied in a cohort of infants from birth to 2 years of age. Results indicated that the levels of antigen-specific IgG, IgA and IgM showed extensive inter-individual variability over time, with IgM and IgA levels to all 9 recombinant domains, from 7 different OMPs, being relatively low throughout the study period. In contrast, the level of antigen-specific IgG was significantly higher for the recombinant domains Hag³⁵⁸⁻⁸⁵³, MID⁷⁶⁴⁻⁹¹³, MID⁹⁶²⁻¹²⁰⁰, UspA1⁵⁵⁷⁻⁷⁰⁴ and UspA2¹⁶⁵⁻³¹⁸ in cord blood compared to 6 months of age (P ≤ 0.001). This was a most likely a consequence of maternal transmission of antigen-specific IgG to newborn babies, possibly indicating a future role for these 3 surface antigens in the development of an effective humoral immune response to M. catarrhalis. Finally, at 2 years of age, the levels of antigen-specific IgG still remained far below that obtained from cord blood samples, indicating that the immune response to M. catarrhalis has not matured at 2 years of age. We provide evidence that a humoral antibody response to OMPs UspA1, UspA2 and Hag/MID may play a role in the immune response to community acquired M. catarrhalis colonization events.

Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools

BACKGROUND

Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results.

METHODS

The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions.

RESULTS

Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example, incidence of pneumonia, distribution of serotypes causing pneumonia) were influential parameters in the models we compared. Understanding the differences and similarities of such CE tools through regular comparisons could render decision-making processes in different countries more efficient, as well as providing guiding information for further clinical and epidemiological research. A tool comparison exercise using standardized data sets can help model developers to be more transparent about their model structure and assumptions and provide analysts and decision makers with a more in-depth view behind the disease dynamics. Adherence to the WHO guide of economic evaluations of immunization programs may also facilitate this process. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55.

Cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination against acute otitis media in children: a review

While pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have shown to be highly effective against invasive pneumococcal disease, their potential effectiveness against acute otitis media (AOM) might become a major economic driver for implementing these vaccines in national immunization programmes. However, the relationship between the costs and benefits of available vaccines remains a controversial topic. Our objective is to systematically review the literature on the cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination against AOM in children. We searched PubMed, Cochrane and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects [DARE], NHS Economic Evaluation Database [NHS EED] and Health Technology Assessment database [HTA]) from inception until 18 February 2010. We used the following keywords with their synonyms: 'otitis media', 'children', 'cost-effectiveness', 'costs' and 'vaccine'. Costs per AOM episode averted were calculated based on the information in this literature. A total of 21 studies evaluating the cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines were included. The quality of the included studies was moderate to good. The cost per AOM episode averted varied from &U20AC;168 to &U20AC;4214, and assumed incidence rates varied from 20,952 to 118,000 per 100,000 children aged 0-10 years. Assumptions regarding direct and indirect costs varied between studies. The assumed vaccine efficacy of the 7-valent pneumococcal CRM197-conjugate vaccine was mainly adopted from two trials, which reported 6-8% efficacy. However, some studies assumed additional effects such as herd immunity or only took into account AOM episodes caused by serotypes included in the vaccine, which resulted in efficacy rates varying from 12% to 57%. Costs per AOM episode averted were inversely related to the assumed incidence rates of AOM and to the estimated costs per AOM episode. The median costs per AOM episode averted tended to be lower in industry-sponsored studies. Key assumptions regarding the incidence and costs of AOM episodes have major implications for the estimated cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination against AOM. Uniform methods for estimating direct and indirect costs of AOM should be agreed upon to reliably compare the cost effectiveness of available and future pneumococcal vaccines against AOM.

Modelling the effect of conjugate vaccines in pneumococcal disease: cohort or population models?

Cohort and population models estimate vaccine impact on disease events, and yield different estimates in countries with different demographic compositions. We compared administration of the new 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae-protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) with no vaccination in two countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and Mexico, using two modelling strategies: a cohort model and a population model. The cohort model followed a birth cohort over a lifetime, beginning 10 years after initiation of the vaccine program, when vaccine efficacy steady state had been reached. The population model examined the country-specific population over 1 year, also beginning 10 years after initiation of the vaccine program. Both models included the same age-specific disease rates of meningitis, bacteraemia, pneumonia, and otitis media. The output variables were the numbers of specific events, with and without indirect vaccine effects. Without indirect effects, the cohort and population models produced similar results for both countries (deviation of <20% difference per output measure for most outcomes). The difference between the model types was much greater when indirect vaccine effects were included, especially in Mexico (up to 120% difference). Cohort and population modelling methods produce different results depending on the disease, the intervention, the demographic composition, and the time horizon evaluated. Results from the two model types provide different information about the impact of interventions on events: accumulated vaccine benefit for an individual in a cohort model; vaccine benefit for a whole population at a specific time point in a population model.