Body mass index and its association with COVID-19 clinical outcomes: Findings from the Philippine CORONA study

Interpretable mortality prediction model for ICU patients with pneumonia: using shapley additive explanation method

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, often necessitates Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Accurate prediction of pneumonia mortality is crucial for tailored prevention and treatment plans. However, existing mortality prediction models face limited adoption in clinical practice due to their lack of interpretability.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop an interpretable model for predicting pneumonia mortality in ICUs. Leveraging the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method, we sought to elucidate the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and identify prognostic factors for pneumonia.

METHODS

Conducted as a retrospective cohort study, we utilized electronic health records from the eICU-CRD (2014-2015) for all adult pneumonia patients. The first 24 h of each ICU admission records were considered, with 70% of the dataset allocated for model training and 30% for validation. The XGBoost model was employed, and performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The SHAP method provided insights into the XGBoost model.

RESULTS

Among 10,962 pneumonia patients, in-hospital mortality was 16.33%. The XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive performance (AUC: 0.778 ± 0.016)) compared to traditional scoring systems and other machine learning method, which achieved an improvement of 10% points. SHAP analysis identified Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) as the most crucial predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

Interpretable predictive models enhance mortality risk assessment for pneumonia patients in the ICU, fostering transparency. AST emerged as the foremost predictor, followed by patient age, albumin, BMI et al. These insights, rooted in strong correlations with mortality, facilitate improved clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

Adiposity and mortality among intensive care patients with COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions: a cross-context comparison study in the UK

BACKGROUND

Adiposity shows opposing associations with mortality within COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. We assessed the likely causality of adiposity for mortality among intensive care patients with COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 by examining the consistency of associations across temporal and geographical contexts where biases vary.

METHODS

We used data from 297 intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme). We examined associations of body mass index (BMI) with 30-day mortality, overall and by date and region of ICU admission, among patients admitted with COVID-19 (N = 34,701; February 2020-August 2021) and non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions (N = 25,205; February 2018-August 2019).

RESULTS

Compared with non-COVID-19 patients, COVID-19 patients were younger, less often of a white ethnic group, and more often with extreme obesity. COVID-19 patients had fewer comorbidities but higher mortality. Socio-demographic and comorbidity factors and their associations with BMI and mortality varied more by date than region of ICU admission. Among COVID-19 patients, higher BMI was associated with excess mortality (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.03-1.07). This was evident only for extreme obesity and only during February-April 2020 (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.30-1.77 vs. recommended weight); this weakened thereafter. Among non-COVID-19 patients, higher BMI was associated with lower mortality (HR per SD = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.81-0.86), seen across all overweight/obesity groups and across dates and regions, albeit with a magnitude that varied over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity is associated with higher mortality among COVID-19 patients, but lower mortality among non-COVID-19 respiratory patients. These associations appear vulnerable to confounding/selection bias in both patient groups, questioning the existence or stability of causal effects.

The clinical outcomes and effectiveness of antiviral agents among underweight patients with COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the outcomes of underweight patients with COVID-19 and the effectiveness of antiviral agents in this population.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using theTriNetX research network was conducted. Propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to balance the first cohort involving COVID-19 patients with underweight and normal-weight. In the second cohort, underweight patients receiving antiviral agents and untreated individuals were matched using PSM. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause hospitalization and death during the 7-30-day follow-up period.

RESULTS

After PSM, the first cohort including each group of 13,502 patients with balanced baseline characteristics were identified for comparing the outcome of patients with underweight and normal weight. The underweight group had a higher risk of the composite primary outcome than those with normal weight (hazard ratio [HR], 1.251; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.132-1.382). The second cohort included each 884 underweight patients with and without receiving antivirals.Compared with untreated patients, those receiving antiviral treatment had a lower risk of composite primary outcomes (HR, 0.426; 95% CI, 0.278-0.653).

CONCLUSION

Underweight status may be associated with a higher risk of all-cause hospitalization and death in patients with COVID-19.Among underweight patients, antiviral agents demonstrated clinically beneficial effects.

Outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and coronary artery disease and heart failure: findings from the Philippine CORONA study

BACKGROUND

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and coronary artery disease (CAD) or heart failure (HF) are more likely to have poor outcomes. This study aimed to determine the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with CAD/HF across various institutions in the Philippines.

METHODS

We utilized the data from the Philippine CORONA Study and compared the outcomes of admitted COVID-19 patients with CAD/HF versus those without. The Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U test, binary logistic regression and multivariate regression analysis were utilized. Odds ratios (OR) and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated.

RESULTS

We included a total of 512 patients with COVID-19 had CAD/HF and 10,369 were without. CAD/HF was significantly associated with COVID severity, all-cause mortality, death from cardiac causes, respiratory failure, and prolonged hospitalization. After adjusting for confounders, the presence of CAD/HF was still associated with death from a cardiac cause (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.49-3.3, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of CAD or HF was significantly associated with severity of COVID disease, all-cause mortality, death from cardiac causes, respiratory failure, and prolonged hospitalization.

Association of body mass index with COVID-19-related neurologic sequelae: a retrospective cohort study

We sought to explore the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and neurologic outcomes following acute COVID-19 infection. We conducted a retrospective electronic medical record-based cohort study enrolling adults with laboratory-confirmed acute COVID-19 infection who presented to 1 of 12 academic and community hospitals in Southwestern Ontario, Canada between April 1, 2020 and July 31, 2021. Primary subjective (anosmia, dysgeusia, and/or headache) and objective (aseptic meningitis, ataxia, delirium, encephalopathy, encephalitis, intracranial hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and/or seizure) composite neurologic outcomes were assessed, comparing obese and overweight individuals to those with underweight/normal BMI indices, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Secondary outcomes (severity of illness, length of hospital stay, SARS-CoV-2 viral load, mortality) were similarly analyzed. A total of 1437 enrolled individuals, of whom 307 (21%), 456 (32%), and 674 (47%) were underweight/normal, overweight, and obese, respectively. On multivariable analysis, there was no association between BMI category and the composite outcome for subjective (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% CI 0.84-1.64, Bonferroni p = 1.00 for obese; OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.70-1.48; Bonferroni p = 1.00 for overweight) and objective (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.42-1.30, p = 0.29 for obese; OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.45-1.43, p = 0.45 for overweight) neurologic manifestations. There was no association between BMI category and any secondary outcome measure and no evidence of effect modification by age or sex. This study demonstrates the absence of an association between BMI and neurologic manifestations following acute COVID-19 illness. Prospective studies using standardized data collection tools and direct measures of body fat are warranted to obtain more valid effect estimates.

Body Mass Index as a Major Prognostic Contributing Factor in COVID-19: A Multicentral Egyptian Study

Background

Extreme body mass index (BMI) is an influential pathophysiological risk factor for serious illnesses following lower respiratory tract infection. The purpose of the current study was to examine how the BMI of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients affects their prognosis.

Methods

Two hundred patients with COVID-19 admitted to Al-Azhar, Qena, Aswan, and Sohag University hospitals in Egypt were included and categorized into four groups according to their BMI. The diagnosis was made according to a real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) positive result for the SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid in swabs from upper respiratory tract. A detailed history, clinical examination, and outcomes (disease severity and complications, hospital stay, ICU admission, mortality) were recorded for all patients. SPSS version 24 software was used for data analysis.

Results

Average age of participants (19-90 years old), 92 (46%) males and 108 females (54%). ICU admission was significantly higher among underweight patients (75%) and obese patients (78.6%). The majority of underweight (62.5%) and obese (57.1%) patients had critical disease. Invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) is frequently used in underweight (50%) and obese patients (42.9%) patients. Adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), cardiac, neurological, and hematological complications, and incidence of myalgia and bed sores were most frequent among obese and overweight patients. Acute kidney injury was significantly higher among underweight patients (37.5%) and obese patients (28.6%) than among other classes (p=0.004). Frequency of endocrine complications was significantly higher in underweight patients than that in other classes (p=0.01). The majority of underweight (75%) and obese patients (50%) deteriorated and died, whereas the majority of normal-weight patients (90.3%) and overweight patients (75.8%) improved and were discharged (p< 0.001).

Conclusion

Body mass index is a major contributing factor to the outcome of patients with COVID-19, and patients with extreme of body mass index were associated with the worst prognosis.

Effectiveness of and Inequalities in COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategies in Hungary: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

INTRODUCTION

Before the mass vaccination, epidemiological control measures were the only means of containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Their effectiveness determined the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study evaluated the impact of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors on patient-reported epidemiological control measures.

METHODS

A nationwide representative sample of 1008 randomly selected adults were interviewed in person between 15 March and 30 May 2021. The prevalence of test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was 12.1%, of testing was 33.7%, and of contact tracing among test-confirmed infected subjects was 67.9%. The vaccination coverage was 52.4%.

RESULTS

According to the multivariable logistic regression models, the occurrence of infection was not influenced by sociodemographic and lifestyle factors or by the presence of chronic disease. Testing was more frequent among middle-aged adults (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.13) and employed adults (aOR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.42-3.00), and was more frequent among adults with a higher education (aOR_secondary = 1.93, 95% CI 1.20-3.13; aOR_tertiary = 3.19, 95% CI 1.81-5.63). Contact tracing was more frequently implemented among middle-aged (aOR41-7y = 3.33, 95% CI 1.17-9.45) and employed (aOR = 4.58, 95% CI 1.38-15.22), and those with chronic diseases (aOR = 5.92, 95% CI 1.56-22.47). Positive correlation was observed between age groups and vaccination frequency (aOR41-70y = 2.94, 95% CI 2.09-4.15; aOR71+y = 14.52, 95% CI 7.33-28.77). Higher than primary education (aOR_secondary = 1.69, 95% CI 1.08-2.63; aOR_tertiary = 4.36, 95% CI 2.46-7.73) and the presence of a chronic disease (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI 1.75-3.80) positively impacted vaccination. Regular smoking was inversely correlated with vaccination (aOR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.44-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

The survey indicated that testing, contact tracing, and vaccination were seriously influenced by socioeconomic position; less so by chronic disease prevalence and very minimally by lifestyle. The etiological role of socioeconomic inequalities in epidemic measure implementation likely generated socioeconomic inequality in COVID-19-related complication and death rates.

Clinical outcomes in COVID-19 among patients with hypertension in the Philippine CORONA Study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the association between hypertension and clinical outcomes in a cohort of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Thirty-seven (37) hospitals in the Philippines.

PATIENTS

10,881 patients admitted for COVID-19 from February to December 2020.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among the 10,881 patients included in the Philippine CORONA Study, 3647 (33.5%) had hypertension. On regression analysis adjusted for confounders (age group, sex, smoking history, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic respiratory disease, chronic neurologic disease, chronic liver disease, HIV/AIDS, and malignancy), patients with hypertension had significantly greater odds of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.52), respiratory failure (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.75-2.28), ICU admission (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.90-2.45) and severe/critical disease (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.41-1.75), compared to patients without hypertension. The time-to-event analysis with confounder adjustment also showed that hypertension was significantly associated with shorter time-to-event outcomes of in-hospital mortality (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26), respiratory failure (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.65-2.10), and ICU admission (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.76-2.23).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis of nationwide data confirmed previous findings that hypertension is an independent risk factor for worse clinical outcomes among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, with increased odds of in-hospital mortality, respiratory failure, ICU admission, and severe/critical COVID-19. More specific studies should be done to elucidate the impact of hypertension characteristics, such as chronicity, severity, drug therapy, and level of control on these clinical outcomes.

Incidence and risk factors for stroke in patients with COVID-19 in the Philippines: An analysis of 10,881 cases

BACKGROUND

While most large studies on the possible association of COVID-19 and stroke were done in high-income countries, only a few studies consisting of small sample populations have been done in low- to middle-income countries like the Philippines.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the risk factors of stroke among hospitalized COVID19 patients in the Philippines; to determine the possible association between these risk factors and stroke among the same cohort; and to determine if there is an association between mortality and stroke in this same group.

METHODOLOGY

We obtained relevant clinical and neurological, including stroke data from the Philippine CORONA study, an observational study involving 10,881 patients with COVID-19 admitted in 37 referral hospitals from all over the Philippines.

RESULTS

The incidence of stroke among patients with COVID-19 was 3.4% (n = 367). There were more deaths among patients with stroke and COVID-19 than those without stroke and COVID-19 (42.2% vs 14.7%, p < 0.01). In addition, more patients with stroke were admitted in the ICU (43.3% vs 15.0%, p < 0.01) regardless of cause. Smoking (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.7, p < 0.0001), hypertension (OR:1.75, 95% CI:1.53 to 1.97, p < 0.0001), presence of heart failure (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.86, p = 0.01), presence of any neurologic co-morbidities (OR: 1.4, 95% CI:1.11 to 1.46, p = 0.004), and history of stroke (OR:2.3, 95% CI:1.82 to 2.97, p < 0.0001) had direct significant correlation with stroke; while being a health care worker (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.70, p < 0.0004) had an inverse significant association with stroke.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 stroke patients in the Philippines have a higher mortality and ICU admission rates than patients with COVID-19 alone or COVID-19 stroke patients from developed countries. Our cohort has similar cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors to western patients with stroke, highlighting that COVID-19 may only have a small contribution to stroke incidence.