Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis care in India

Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the world, causing major public health problems in developing countries. The rate of TB incidence in Iran was estimated to be 13 per 100,000 in 2021. This study aimed to estimate the reproduction number and serial interval for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran.

Material and methods

The present national historical cohort study was conducted from March 2018 to March 2022 based on data from the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Registration Center of Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). The study included 30,762 tuberculosis cases and 16,165 new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Iran. We estimated the reproduction number of pulmonary tuberculosis in a Bayesian framework, which can incorporate uncertainty in estimating it. Statistical analyses were accomplished in R software.

Results

The mean age at diagnosis of patients was 52.3 ± 21.2 years, and most patients were in the 35-63 age group (37.1%). Among the data, 9121 (56.4%) cases were males, and 7044 (43.6%) were females. Among patients, 7459 (46.1%) had a delayed diagnosis between 1 and 3 months. Additionally, 3039 (18.8%) cases were non-Iranians, and 2978 (98%) were Afghans. The time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis disease was calculated at an average of 1.06 ± 0.05 (95% Crl 0.96-1.15).

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence and the time-varying reproduction number of pulmonary tuberculosis showed the same pattern. The mean of the time-varying reproduction number indicated that each infected person is causing at least one new infection over time, and the chain of transmission is not being disrupted.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 management on the workload of human resources working in India's National Tuberculosis Elimination Program

BACKGROUND

In 1993, WHO declared tuberculosis (TB) as a global health emergency considering 10 million people are battling TB, of which 30% are undiagnosed annually. In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic took an unprecedented toll on health systems in every country. Public health staff already engaged in TB control and numerous other departments were additionally tasked with managing COVID-19, stretching human resource (HR) capacity beyond its limits. As part of an assessment of HR involved in TB control in India, The World Bank Group and partners conducted an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on TB human resources for health (HRH) workloads, with the objective of describing the extent to which TB-related activities could be fulfilled and hypothesizing on future HR requirements to meet those needs.

METHODS

The study team conducted a Workload Indicators and Staffing Needs (WISN) analysis according to standard WHO methodology to classify the workloads of priority cadres directly or indirectly involved in TB control activities as over-, adequately or under-worked, in 18 districts across seven states in India. Data collection was done via telephone interviews, and questions were added regarding the proportion of time dedicated to COVID-19 related tasks. We carried out quantitative analysis to describe the time allocated to COVID-19 which otherwise would have been spent on TB activities. We also conducted key informant interviews (KII) with key TB program staff about HRH planning and task-shifting from TB to COVID-19.

RESULTS

Workload data were collected from 377 respondents working in or together with India's Central TB Division (CTD). 73% of all respondents (n = 270) reported carrying out COVID-19 tasks. The average time spent on COVID-19 tasks was 4 h / day (n = 72 respondents). Multiple cadres highly instrumental in TB screening and diagnosis, in particular community outreach (ASHA) workers and CBNAAT/TrueNAAT laboratory technicians working at peripheral, block and district levels, were overworked, and spending more than 50% of their time on COVID-19 tasks, reducing time for TB case-finding. Qualitative interviews with laboratory technicians revealed that PCR machines previously used for TB testing were repurposed for COVID-19 testing.

CONCLUSIONS

The devastating impact of COVID-19 on HR capacity to conduct TB case-finding in India, as in other settings, cannot be overstated. Our findings provide clear evidence that NTEP human resources did not have time or essential material resources to carry out TB tasks during the COVID pandemic without doing substantial overtime and/or compromising on TB service delivery. To minimize disruptions to routine health services such as TB amidst future emerging infectious diseases, we would do well, during periods of relative calm and stability, to strategically map out how HRH lab staff, public health resources, such as India's Health and Wellness Centers and public health cadre, and public-private sector collaboration can most optimally absorb shocks to the health system.

Tuberculosis and the Effectiveness of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program (RNTCP) to Control Tuberculosis: A Narrative Review

The revised National Tuberculosis (TB) Control Program is an initiative undertaken by the government of India and was active from 1997 to 2020. Later it was renamed as National TB Elimination Program, which eyes the complete eradication of TB by 2025. The revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) is preceded by the National TB Control Program which was activated when the cases of TB were on the rise in the early 1960s and police intervention was needed. National Tobacco Control Cell (NTCP) guided the efforts until 1997 when various shortcomings, which were registered over the course of time, were addressed and the revised program was launched. It has been a mixed success as beneficiaries belonging to the reachable, urban areas were benefitted, and tribal, and backward areas were lagging behind. Although the RNTCP proved to be effective in containing TB and curing it to a certain extent, the successor of the program, which is NTEP, has set an ambitious goal of eradicating TB by 2025 which needs concerted efforts on behalf of all stakeholders.

Impact on Tuberculosis Notification During COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Narrative Review

Various programs are being weakened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the tuberculosis (TB) program is no exception. TB case detection and notification is one of the worst affected areas. The study aims to assess India's TB reporting status during this pandemic and find possible solutions. Data analysis has been obtained from the India TB notification open-source database. Relevant literature research has been done to determine the measures based on various efforts made by different Indian states. There was a review of all TB notifications in 2019, 2020, and 2021 and a deficiency in notifications. Between 2019 and 2021, the country's TB notification ratio experienced a significant adaptation. In 2020, all states reported a decline in private and public TB case reports. In the nation, only a few private TB notifications were lost. In April 2020, there were the fewest notifications, which began to decline in February 2020. When states began implementing cutting-edge programs like the Integrated TB COVID Case Search and Active Case Finding (ACF), the notification trend improved in May 2020. The notifications of TB cases decreased significantly due to the present COVID-19 pandemic, which has consequences for the disease's stealthy spread throughout homes and communities. However, the situation may be better with an integrated strategy for managing TB-COVID cases.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health-care delivery system for other diseases and antimicrobial resistance threat in India

India's health-care delivery is challenged with different inequalities and theelivery is challenged with different inequalities and the dual burden of communicable and noncommunicable diseases. Lockdown posed negative effects on the growth and economy of the country; simultaneously, some positive effects, like increased health consciousness and adoption of hygienic practices, were also there. Health-care delivery system faced tremendous challenges in diagnostics, therapeutics, infrastructure for inpatient care, and protection of health-care manpower. During this period, people chose to self medicate which in turn increased the threat of emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Due to shifting priority to COVID from other diseases, resources were shifted to COVID, affecting the management of other acute and chronic diseases. The launching of COVID-19 vaccination campaign showed some hope. However, despite the vaccination drive, strengthening infrastructure, and surveillance system, the devastating second wave could not be avoided due to the conglomeration of the crowd for pilgrimage, election campaign, and tourism in an unrestricted manner. It may be concluded that the fourth wave may be short lasting due to increased herd immunity.

Changing patterns of household transmission of tuberculosis in an eastern state of India: The impact of COVID19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 Pandemic has affected many components of the Tuberculosis (TB) control program. Due to lockdown and restrictions, people, including TB patients, might have spent more time in the household. There might be an increased TB transmission among the household contacts (HHC). The current study was conducted to measure the household transmission of TB and also find out the relationship with several clinico-social factors.

METHODS

Contact tracing data of West Bengal, India, was extracted from Nikshay portal of Central TB Division, Government of India. The anonymized data was divided into two parts, firstly before the lockdown initiation in India and secondly during the lockdown. A modified Poisson regression model was developed to determine the statistical association between clinico-social variables and the pandemic with household-level secondary TB cases.

RESULTS

There was a 30% reduction in daily TB case notification, but the proportion of HHC screened was 4% higher during the pandemic than the pre-pandemic period. The secondary attack rate of household TB disease transmission was 34% lower during the pandemic period. Index TB patients aged under ten years, microbiologically positive, Drug-Resistant TB, having three or more HHCs, treatment delay more than seven days, notified from the private sector, and diagnosis during the pre-pandemic period was found to be independently associated with a higher risk of having a secondary TB case at household.

CONCLUSION

The risk of household TB transmission was significantly lower during the pandemic period compared to the pre-pandemic period, which may be due to better infection prevention and control practices.

Machine Learning Models for Mycobacterium tuberculosisIn Vitro Activity: Prediction and Target Visualization

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health challenge, with approximately 1.4 million deaths per year. There is still a need to develop novel treatments for patients infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). There have been many large-scale phenotypic screens that have led to the identification of thousands of new compounds. Yet, there is very limited investment in TB drug discovery which points to the need for new methods to increase the efficiency of drug discovery against Mtb. We have used machine learning approaches to learn from the public Mtb data, resulting in many data sets and models with robust enrichment and hit rates leading to the discovery of new active compounds. Recently, we have curated predominantly small-molecule Mtb data and developed new machine learning classification models with 18 886 molecules at different activity cutoffs. We now describe the further validation of these Bayesian models using a library of over 1000 molecules synthesized as part of EU-funded New Medicines for TB and More Medicines for TB programs. We highlight molecular features which are enriched in these active compounds. In addition, we provide new regression and classification models that can be used for scoring compound libraries or used to design new molecules. We have also visualized these molecules in the context of known molecular targets and identified clusters in chemical property space, which may aid in future target identification efforts. Finally, we are also making these data sets publicly available, representing a significant increase to the available Mtb inhibition data in the public domain.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on the pathway of care and treatment outcome among patients with tuberculosis in a rural part of northern India: a community-based study

Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected routine healthcare services across all spectra, and tuberculosis (TB) care under the National Tuberculosis Elimination Program have been affected the most. However, evidence available at the community level is minimal. The clinical features, care cascade pathway, and treatment outcomes of TB patients pre- and during/post-COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in a rural community health block in northern India were assessed and compared.

Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study that included all patients diagnosed with TB and initiated treatment under programmatic settings between January 1 and June 30, 2020, in a rural TB unit in northern India. The periods from January 1 to March 23 and March 24 to June 30 were marked as pre-lockdown and during/post-lockdown, respectively.

Results: A total of 103 patients were diagnosed and treated for TB during the study period. A significantly higher proportion of pulmonary TB cases were reported during/post-lockdown (43, 82.7%) compared to that pre-lockdown (32, 62.7%), and a higher diagnostic delay was noted during/post-lockdown (35, 81.4%). Through adjusted analysis, patients diagnosed during/post-lockdown period (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.98) and previously treated (aRR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60–0.995) had significantly lower favorable treatment outcomes.

Conclusions: The symptom and disease (pulmonary/extrapulmonary) pattern have changed during/post-lockdown. The care cascade delays are still high among TB patients, irrespective of the lockdown status. Lockdown had a significant adverse impact on the outcomes of TB treatment.

Competing Health Risks Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic and Early Response: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has rapidly emerged as a global public health threat with infections recorded in nearly every country. Responses to COVID-19 have varied in intensity and breadth, but generally have included domestic and international travel limitations, closure of non-essential businesses, and repurposing of health services. While these interventions have focused on testing, treatment, and mitigation of COVID-19, there have been reports of interruptions to diagnostic, prevention, and treatment services for other public health threats.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a scoping review to characterize the early impact of COVID-19 on HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was completed using searches of PubMed and preprint servers (medRxiv/bioRxiv) from January 1st to October 31st, 2020, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms related to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 and HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition. Empiric studies reporting original data collection or mathematical models were included, and available data synthesized by region. Studies were excluded if they were not written in English.

RESULTS

A total of 1604 published papers and 205 preprints met inclusion criteria, including 8.2% (132/1604) of published studies and 10.2% (21/205) of preprints: 7.3% (68/931) on HIV, 7.1% (24/339) on tuberculosis, 11.6% (26/224) on malaria, 7.8% (13/166) on sexual and reproductive health, and 9.8% (13/132) on malnutrition. Thematic results were similar across competing health risks, with substantial indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and response on diagnostic, prevention, and treatment services for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition.

DISCUSSION

COVID-19 emerged in the context of existing public health threats that result in millions of deaths every year. Thus, effectively responding to COVID-19 while minimizing the negative impacts of COVID-19 necessitates innovation and integration of existing programs that are often siloed across health systems. Inequities have been a consistent driver of existing health threats; COVID-19 has worsened disparities, reinforcing the need for programs that address structural risks. The data reviewed here suggest that effective strengthening of health systems should include investment and planning focused on ensuring the continuity of care for both rapidly emergent and existing public health threats.

Impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID intensive care unit service utilization, case mix and outcomes: A registry-based analysis from India

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been responsible for over 3.4 million deaths globally and over 25 million cases in India. As part of the response, India imposed a nation-wide lockdown and prioritized COVID-19 care in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs). Leveraging data from the Indian Registry of IntenSive care, we sought to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on critical care service utilization, case-mix, and clinical outcomes in non-COVID ICUs.  Methods: We included all consecutive patients admitted between 1 st October 2019 and 27 th September 2020. Data were extracted from the registry database and included patients admitted to the non-COVID or general ICUs at each of the sites. Outcomes included measures of resource-availability, utilisation, case-mix, acuity, and demand for ICU beds. We used a Mann-Whitney test to compare the pre-pandemic period (October 2019 - February 2020) to the pandemic period (March-September 2020). In addition, we also compared the period of intense lockdown (March-May 31 st 2020) with the pre-pandemic period. Results: There were 3424 patient encounters in the pre-pandemic period and 3524 encounters in the pandemic period. Comparing these periods, weekly admissions declined (median [Q1 Q3] 160 [145,168] to 113 [98.5,134]; p<0.001); unit turnover declined (median [Q1 Q3] 12.1 [11.32,13] to 8.58 [7.24,10], p<0.001), and APACHE II score increased (median [Q1 Q3] 19 [19,20] to 21 [20,22] ; p<0.001). Unadjusted ICU mortality increased (9.3% to 11.7%, p=0.015) and the length of ICU stay was similar (median [Q1 Q3] 2.11 [2, 2] vs. 2.24 [2, 3] days; p=0.151). Conclusion: Our registry-based analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID critical care demonstrates significant disruptions to healthcare utilization during the pandemic and an increase in the severity of illness.

Impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID intensive care unit service utilization, case mix and outcomes: A registry-based analysis from India

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been responsible for over 3.4 million deaths globally and over 25 million cases in India. As part of the response, India imposed a nation-wide lockdown and prioritized COVID-19 care in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs). Leveraging data from the Indian Registry of IntenSive care, we sought to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on critical care service utilization, case-mix, and clinical outcomes in non-COVID ICUs.  Methods: We included all consecutive patients admitted between 1 st October 2019 and 27 th September 2020. Data were extracted from the registry database and included patients admitted to the non-COVID or general ICUs at each of the sites. Outcomes included measures of resource-availability, utilisation, case-mix, acuity, and demand for ICU beds. We used a Mann-Whitney test to compare the pre-pandemic period (October 2019 - February 2020) to the pandemic period (March-September 2020). In addition, we also compared the period of intense lockdown (March-May 31 st 2020) with the pre-pandemic period. Results: There were 3424 patient encounters in the pre-pandemic period and 3524 encounters in the pandemic period. Comparing these periods, weekly admissions declined (median [Q1 Q3] 160 [145,168] to 113 [98.5,134]; p=0.00002); unit turnover declined (median [Q1 Q3] 12.1 [11.32,13] to 8.58 [7.24,10], p<0.00001), and APACHE II score increased (median [Q1 Q3] 19 [19,20] to 21 [20,22] ; p<0.00001). Unadjusted ICU mortality increased (9.3% to 11.7%, p=0.01519) and the length of ICU stay was similar (median [Q1 Q3] 2.11 [2, 2] vs. 2.24 [2, 3] days; p=0.15096). Conclusion: Our registry-based analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID critical care demonstrates significant disruptions to healthcare utilization during the pandemic and an increase in the severity of illness.