A new survival status prediction system for severe trauma patients based on a multiple classifier system

Comparing NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS in predicting mortality rate in trauma patients based on prehospital data set: a diagnostic study

BACKGROUND

In the recent years, National Early Warning Score2 (NEWS2) is utilized to predict early on, the worsening of clinical status in patients. To this date the predictive accuracy of National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and Trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) regarding the trauma patients' mortality rate have not been compared. Therefore, the objective of this study is comparing NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS in predicting mortality rate in trauma patients based on prehospital data set.

METHODS

This cross-sectional retrospective diagnostic study performed on 6905 trauma patients, of which 4191 were found eligible, referred to the largest trauma center in southern Iran, Shiraz, during 2022-2023 based on their prehospital data set in order to compare the prognostic power of NEWS2, RTS, and TRISS in predicting in-hospital mortality rate. Patients are divided into deceased and survived groups. Demographic data, vital signs, and GCS were obtained from the patients and scoring systems were calculated and compared between the two groups. TRISS and ISS are calculated with in-hospital data set; others are based on prehospital data set.

RESULTS

A total of 129 patients have deceased. Age, cause of injury, length of hospital stay, SBP, RR, HR, temperature, SpO2, and GCS were associated with mortality (p-value < 0.001). TRISS and RTS had the highest sensitivity and specificity respectively (77.52, CI 95% [69.3-84.4] and 93.99, CI 95% [93.2-94.7]). TRISS had the highest area under the ROC curve (0.934) followed by NEWS2 (0.879), GCS (0.815), RTS (0.812), and ISS (0.774). TRISS and NEWS were superior to RTS, GCS, and ISS (p-value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This novel study compares the accuracy of NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS scoring systems in predicting mortality rate based on prehospital data. The findings suggest that all the scoring systems can predict mortality, with TRISS being the most accurate of them, followed by NEWS2. Considering the time consumption and ease of use, NEWS2 seems to be accurate and quick in predicting mortality based on prehospital data set.

Machine learning for predictive data analytics in medicine: A review illustrated by cardiovascular and nuclear medicine examples

The evidence-based medicine allows the physician to evaluate the risk-benefit ratio of a treatment through setting and data. Risk-based choices can be done by the doctor using different information. With the emergence of new technologies, a large amount of data is recorded offering interesting perspectives with machine learning for predictive data analytics. Machine learning is an ensemble of methods that process data to model a learning problem. Supervised machine learning algorithms consist in using annotated data to construct the model. This category allows to solve prediction data analytics problems. In this paper, we detail the use of supervised machine learning algorithms for predictive data analytics problems in medicine. In the medical field, data can be split into two categories: medical images and other data. For brevity, our review deals with any kind of medical data excluding images. In this article, we offer a discussion around four supervised machine learning approaches: information-based, similarity-based, probability-based and error-based approaches. Each method is illustrated with detailed cardiovascular and nuclear medicine examples. Our review shows that model ensemble (ME) and support vector machine (SVM) methods are the most popular. SVM, ME and artificial neural networks often lead to better results than those given by other algorithms. In the coming years, more studies, more data, more tools and more methods will, for sure, be proposed.

Multivariate Approach for Alzheimer's Disease Detection Using Stationary Wavelet Entropy and Predator-Prey Particle Swarm Optimization

BACKGROUND

The number of patients with Alzheimer's disease is increasing rapidly every year. Scholars often use computer vision and machine learning methods to develop an automatic diagnosis system.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we developed a novel machine learning system that can make diagnoses automatically from brain magnetic resonance images.

METHODS

First, the brain imaging was processed, including skull stripping and spatial normalization. Second, one axial slice was selected from the volumetric image, and stationary wavelet entropy (SWE) was done to extract the texture features. Third, a single-hidden-layer neural network was used as the classifier. Finally, a predator-prey particle swarm optimization was proposed to train the weights and biases of the classifier.

RESULTS

Our method used 4-level decomposition and yielded 13 SWE features. The classification yielded an overall accuracy of 92.73±1.03%, a sensitivity of 92.69±1.29%, and a specificity of 92.78±1.51%. The area under the curve is 0.95±0.02. Additionally, this method only cost 0.88 s to identify a subject in online stage, after its volumetric image is preprocessed.

CONCLUSION

In terms of classification performance, our method performs better than 10 state-of-the-art approaches and the performance of human observers. Therefore, this proposed method is effective in the detection of Alzheimer's disease.

A prospective study of consecutive emergency medical admissions to compare a novel automated computer-aided mortality risk score and clinical judgement of patient mortality risk

OBJECTIVES

To compare the performance of a validated automatic computer-aided risk of mortality (CARM) score versus medical judgement in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality for patients following emergency medical admission.

DESIGN

A prospective study.

SETTING

Consecutive emergency medical admissions in York hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Elderly medical admissions in one ward were assigned a risk of death at the first post-take ward round by consultant staff over a 2-week period. The consultant medical staff used the same variables to assign a risk of death to the patient as the CARM (age, sex, National Early Warning Score and blood test results) but also had access to the clinical history, examination findings and any immediately available investigations such as ECGs. The performance of the CARM versus consultant medical judgement was compared using the c-statistic and the positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality was 31.8% (130/409). For patients with complete blood test results, the c-statistic for CARM was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69 to 0.81) versus 0.72 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.78) for medical judgements (p=0.28). For patients with at least one missing blood test result, the c-statistics were similar (medical judgements 0.70 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.81) vs CARM 0.70 (95% CI: 0.59 to 0.80)). At a 10% mortality risk, the PPV for CARM was higher than medical judgements in patients with complete blood test results, 62.0% (95% CI: 51.2 to 71.9) versus 49.2% (95% CI: 39.8 to 58.5) but not when blood test results were missing, 50.0% (95% CI: 24.7 to 75.3) versus 53.3% (95% CI: 34.3 to 71.7).

CONCLUSIONS

CARM is comparable with medical judgements in discriminating in-hospital mortality following emergency admission to an elderly care ward. CARM may have a promising role in supporting medical judgements in determining the patient's risk of death in hospital. Further evaluation of CARM in routine practice is required.

Preliminary Study of Chronic Liver Classification on Ultrasound Images Using an Ensemble Model

Chronic liver diseases are fifth leading cause of fatality in developing countries. Their early diagnosis is extremely important for timely treatment and salvage life. To examine abnormalities of liver, ultrasound imaging is the most frequently used modality. However, the visual differentiation between chronic liver and cirrhosis, and presence of heptocellular carcinomas (HCC) evolved over cirrhotic liver is difficult, as they appear almost similar in ultrasound images. In this paper, to deal with this difficult visualization problem, a method has been developed for classifying four liver stages, that is, normal, chronic, cirrhosis, and HCC evolved over cirrhosis. The method is formulated with selected set of "handcrafted" texture features obtained after hierarchal feature fusion. These multiresolution and higher order features, which are able to characterize echotexture and roughness of liver surface, are extracted by using ranklet, gray-level difference matrix and gray-level co-occurrence matrix methods. Thereafter, these features are applied on proposed ensemble classifier that is designed with voting algorithm in conjunction with three classifiers, namely, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), and rotation forest. The experiments are conducted to evaluate the (a) effectiveness of "handcrafted" texture features, (b) performance of proposed ensemble model, (c) effectiveness of proposed ensemble strategy, (d) performance of different classifiers, and (e) performance of proposed ensemble model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) features to differentiate four liver stages. These experiments are carried out on database of 754 segmented regions of interest formed by clinically acquired ultrasound images. The results show that classification accuracy of 96.6% is obtained by use of proposed classifier model.

Minimal ensemble based on subset selection using ECG to diagnose categories of CAN

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Early diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) is critical for reversing or decreasing its progression and prevent complications. Diagnostic accuracy or precision is one of the core requirements of CAN detection. As the standard Ewing battery tests suffer from a number of shortcomings, research in automating and improving the early detection of CAN has recently received serious attention in identifying additional clinical variables and designing advanced ensembles of classifiers to improve the accuracy or precision of CAN diagnostics. Although large ensembles are commonly proposed for the automated diagnosis of CAN, large ensembles are characterized by slow processing speed and computational complexity. This paper applies ECG features and proposes a new ensemble-based approach for diagnosis of CAN progression.

METHODS

We introduce a Minimal Ensemble Based On Subset Selection (MEBOSS) for the diagnosis of all categories of CAN including early, definite and atypical CAN. MEBOSS is based on a novel multi-tier architecture applying classifier subset selection as well as the training subset selection during several steps of its operation. Our experiments determined the diagnostic accuracy or precision obtained in 5 × 2 cross-validation for various options employed in MEBOSS and other classification systems.

RESULTS

The experiments demonstrate the operation of the MEBOSS procedure invoking the most effective classifiers available in the open source software environment SageMath. The results of our experiments show that for the large DiabHealth database of CAN related parameters MEBOSS outperformed other classification systems available in SageMath and achieved 94% to 97% precision in 5 × 2 cross-validation correctly distinguishing any two CAN categories to a maximum of five categorizations including control, early, definite, severe and atypical CAN.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that MEBOSS architecture is effective and can be recommended for practical implementations in systems for the diagnosis of CAN progression.

Comparison of Models for the Prediction of Medical Costs of Spinal Fusion in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups by Machine Learning Algorithms

Objectives

The aims of this study were to compare the performance of machine learning methods for the prediction of the medical costs associated with spinal fusion in terms of profit or loss in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups (Tw-DRGs) and to apply these methods to explore the important factors associated with the medical costs of spinal fusion.

Methods

A data set was obtained from a regional hospital in Taoyuan city in Taiwan, which contained data from 2010 to 2013 on patients of Tw-DRG49702 (posterior and other spinal fusion without complications or comorbidities). Naïve-Bayesian, support vector machines, logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, and random forest methods were employed for prediction using WEKA 3.8.1.

Results

Five hundred thirty-two cases were categorized as belonging to the Tw-DRG49702 group. The mean medical cost was US $4,549.7, and the mean age of the patients was 62.4 years. The mean length of stay was 9.3 days. The length of stay was an important variable in terms of determining medical costs for patients undergoing spinal fusion. The random forest method had the best predictive performance in comparison to the other methods, achieving an accuracy of 84.30%, a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 92.2%, and an AUC of 0.904.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that the random forest model can be employed to predict the medical costs of Tw-DRG49702, and could inform hospital strategy in terms of increasing the financial management efficiency of this operation.

Derivation and validation of different machine-learning models in mortality prediction of trauma in motorcycle riders: a cross-sectional retrospective study in southern Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to build and test the models of machine learning (ML) to predict the mortality of hospitalised motorcycle riders.

SETTING

The study was conducted in a level-1 trauma centre in southern Taiwan.

PARTICIPANTS

Motorcycle riders who were hospitalised between January 2009 and December 2015 were classified into a training set (n=6306) and test set (n=946). Using the demographic information, injury characteristics and laboratory data of patients, logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT) analyses were performed to determine the mortality of individual motorcycle riders, under different conditions, using all samples or reduced samples, as well as all variables or selected features in the algorithm.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The predictive performance of the model was evaluated based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean, and an analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the two different models was carried out.

RESULTS

In the training set, both LR and SVM had a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than DT. No significant difference was observed in the AUC of LR and SVM, regardless of whether all samples or reduced samples and whether all variables or selected features were used. In the test set, the performance of the SVM model for all samples with selected features was better than that of all other models, with an accuracy of 98.73%, sensitivity of 86.96%, specificity of 99.02%, geometric mean of 92.79% and AUC of 0.9517, in mortality prediction.

CONCLUSION

ML can provide a feasible level of accuracy in predicting the mortality of motorcycle riders. Integration of the ML model, particularly the SVM algorithm in the trauma system, may help identify high-risk patients and, therefore, guide appropriate interventions by the clinical staff.