Human transmission of Ebola virus

Chaos theory in the understanding of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics

The chaos theory, a field of study in mathematics and physics, offers a unique lens through which to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This theory, which deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to initial conditions, can provide insights into the unpredictable and seemingly random nature of the pandemic's spread. In this review, we will discuss some literature data with the aim of showing how chaos theory could provide valuable perspectives in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we will emphasize how the chaos theory can help in dissecting the unpredictable, non- linear progression of the disease, the importance of initial conditions, and the complex interactions between various factors influencing its spread. These insights are crucial for developing effective strategies to manage and mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

The chaos law is a principal driver of natural selection: A proposition on the evolution of recently emerged coronaviruses

Here we propose that viruses emerging in the human population undergo an evolution that is conditioned by the rules of chaos. Our data support the notion that the initial growth rate "r" affects the chances of the virus to establish a long-lasting relationship with the new host. Indeed, an emerging virus is able to spread and adapt only when it displays an initial r falling in a range frankly associated with chaotic growth.

Host–Pathogen Interactions Influencing Zoonotic Spillover Potential and Transmission in Humans

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin are an ever-increasing public health risk and economic burden. The factors that determine if and when an animal virus is able to spill over into the human population with sufficient success to achieve ongoing transmission in humans are complex and dynamic. We are currently unable to fully predict which pathogens may appear in humans, where and with what impact. In this review, we highlight current knowledge of the key host–pathogen interactions known to influence zoonotic spillover potential and transmission in humans, with a particular focus on two important human viruses of zoonotic origin, the Nipah virus and the Ebola virus. Namely, key factors determining spillover potential include cellular and tissue tropism, as well as the virulence and pathogenic characteristics of the pathogen and the capacity of the pathogen to adapt and evolve within a novel host environment. We also detail our emerging understanding of the importance of steric hindrance of host cell factors by viral proteins using a “flytrap”-type mechanism of protein amyloidogenesis that could be crucial in developing future antiviral therapies against emerging pathogens. Finally, we discuss strategies to prepare for and to reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover occurrences in order to minimize the risk of new outbreaks.

Epidemiology of Ebolaviruses from an Etiological Perspective

Since the inception of the ebolavirus in 1976, 32 outbreaks have resulted in nearly 15,350 deaths in more than ten countries of the African continent. In the last decade, the largest (2013-2016) and second largest (2018-2020) ebolavirus outbreaks have occurred in West Africa (mainly Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The 2013-2016 outbreak indicated an alarming geographical spread of the virus and was the first to qualify as an epidemic. Hence, it is imperative to halt ebolavirus progression and develop effective countermeasures. Despite several research efforts, ebolaviruses' natural hosts and secondary reservoirs still elude the scientific world. The primary source responsible for infecting the index case is also unknown for most outbreaks. In this review, we summarize the history of ebolavirus outbreaks with a focus on etiology, natural hosts, zoonotic reservoirs, and transmission mechanisms. We also discuss the reasons why the African continent is the most affected region and identify steps to contain this virus.

Dynamical behavior of a coupling SEIR epidemic model with transmission in body and vitro, incubation and environmental effects

In this paper, a coupling SEIR epidemic model is proposed to characterize the interaction of virus spread in the body of hosts and between hosts with environmentally-driven infection, humoral immunity and incubation of disease. The threshold criteria on the local (or global) stability of feasible equilibria with or without antibody response are established. The basic reproduction number $ R_{b0} $ is obtained for the SEIR model without an antibody response, by which we find that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if $ R_{b0} < 1 $. Two endemic equilibria exist if $ R_{b0} < 1 $, in which one is locally asymptotically stable under some additional conditions but the other is unstable, which means there is backward bifurcation. In addition, the uniform persistence of this model is discussed. For the SEIR model with an antibody response, the basic reproduction number $ R_{0} $ is calculated, from which the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ R_0\leq1 $, and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ R_0 > 1 $. Antibody immunity in the host plays a great role in the control of disease transmission, especially when the diseases between the hosts are entirely extinct once antibody cells in the host reach a proper level. Finally, the main conclusions are illustrated by some special examples and numerical simulations.

Dynamics in a disease transmission model coupled virus infection in host with incubation delay and environmental effects

In this paper, a disease transmission model coupled virus infection in host with incubation delay and environmental effects is studied. For the virus infection model in host with immune, latent delay and environmental virus invading, the threshold criteria on the global stability of antibody-free and antibody response infection equilibria are established. For the disease transmission model with incubation delay and immune response in host, basic reproduction number R 0 is defined, and the local stability of equilibria are established, i.e., the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1 , and the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 > 1 . Furthermore, the uniform persistence of positive solutions is studied while there is not the direct transmission of disease by the infected individuals. Finally, the numerical examples are presented to verify the main results.

Analysis of Residents’ Preparedness Protocols during Ebola Pandemic in Urban Environment

Background: The study provided empirical analysis of the change in hygiene behavioural practices among community in Ogun and Lagos State with respect to Ebola outbreak in Nigeria. Methods: The data were extracted from a 2015 Cross-Sectional Survey on wellness, knowledge, attitude and practices towards the control and prevention of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Out of 1093 respondents selected in the main survey through simple random sampling technique within two enumeration areas (EAs), only 933 data cases were analyzable, leaving an attrition rate of 14.6%. The EAs represents the sampling points within the local government areas selected for the interviewed. Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were both employed in the data analysis. Results: The results revealed high level of knowledge of EVD but over 70% were not aware of centre for treatment of EVD; 60.2% believed they cannot be susceptible to EVD. There were changes in certain practices that were canvassed and earlier adhered to during the outbreak. The practice of handshaking reduced, eating of hunted animals decreased only marginally by 6.9% and washing with soap increased by 4%. Conclusion: The study provides helpful insights for public health policy on possible mitigating strategies, especially in terms of behavioral risk factors that are prone to Ebola virus infections or other communicable diseases. The study emphasises that regular hand washing with soap and the use of sanitising agents including availability of treatment centres would be helpful in preventing the occurrence or re-occurrence of pandemic. The protocols identified in this study could be relevant to both medical personnel and the community for adoption especially as the unlikelihood of Ebola (or other pandemic) re-emergence have not been established.

STAT-1 Knockout Mice as a Model for Wild-Type Sudan Virus (SUDV)

Currently there is no FDA-licensed vaccine or therapeutic against Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) infections. The largest ever reported 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak, as well as the 2021 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlight the critical need for countermeasures against filovirus infections. A well-characterized small animal model that is susceptible to wild-type filoviruses would greatly add to the screening of antivirals and vaccines. Here, we infected signal transducer and activator of transcription-1 knock out (STAT-1 KO) mice with five different wildtype filoviruses to determine susceptibility. SUDV and Marburg virus (MARV) were the most virulent, and caused 100% or 80% lethality, respectively. Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV), and Taï Forest ebolavirus (TAFV) caused 40%, 20%, and no mortality, respectively. Further characterization of SUDV in STAT-1 KO mice demonstrated lethality down to 3.1 × 10¹ pfu. Viral genomic material was detectable in serum as early as 1 to 2 days post-challenge. The onset of viremia was closely followed by significant changes in total white blood cells and proportion of neutrophils and lymphocytes, as well as by an influx of neutrophils in the liver and spleen. Concomitant significant fluctuations in blood glucose, albumin, globulin, and alanine aminotransferase were also noted, altogether consistent with other models of filovirus infection. Finally, favipiravir treatment fully protected STAT-1 KO mice from lethal SUDV challenge, suggesting that this may be an appropriate small animal model to screen anti-SUDV countermeasures.

Pathogen Dose in Animal Models of Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Infections and the Potential Impact on Studies of the Immune Response

Viral hemorrhagic fever viruses come from a wide range of virus families and are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide each year. Animal models of infection with a number of these viruses have contributed to our knowledge of their pathogenesis and have been crucial for the development of therapeutics and vaccines that have been approved for human use. Most of these models use artificially high doses of virus, ensuring lethality in pre-clinical drug development studies. However, this can have a significant effect on the immune response generated. Here I discuss how the dose of antigen or pathogen is a critical determinant of immune responses and suggest that the current study of viruses in animal models should take this into account when developing and studying animal models of disease. This can have implications for determination of immune correlates of protection against disease as well as informing relevant vaccination and therapeutic strategies.

First insights into the structural features of Ebola virus methyltransferase activities

The Ebola virus is a deadly human pathogen responsible for several outbreaks in Africa. Its genome encodes the 'large' L protein, an essential enzyme that has polymerase, capping and methyltransferase activities. The methyltransferase activity leads to RNA co-transcriptional modifications at the N7 position of the cap structure and at the 2'-O position of the first transcribed nucleotide. Unlike other Mononegavirales viruses, the Ebola virus methyltransferase also catalyses 2'-O-methylation of adenosines located within the RNA sequences. Herein, we report the crystal structure at 1.8 Å resolution of the Ebola virus methyltransferase domain bound to a fragment of a camelid single-chain antibody. We identified structural determinants and key amino acids specifically involved in the internal adenosine-2'-O-methylation from cap-related methylations. These results provide the first high resolution structure of an ebolavirus L protein domain, and the framework to investigate the effects of epitranscriptomic modifications and to design possible antiviral drugs against the Filoviridae family.

National reporting of deaths after enhanced Ebola surveillance in Sierra Leone

Background

Sierra Leone experienced the largest documented epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease in 2014–2015. The government implemented a national tollfree telephone line (1-1-7) for public reporting of illness and deaths to improve the detection of Ebola cases. Reporting of deaths declined substantially after the epidemic ended. To inform routine mortality surveillance, we aimed to describe the trends in deaths reported to the 1-1-7 system and to quantify people’s motivations to continue reporting deaths after the epidemic.

Methods

First, we described the monthly trends in the number of deaths reported to the 1-1-7 system between September 2014 and September 2019. Second, we conducted a telephone survey in April 2017 with a national sample of individuals who reported a death to the 1-1-7 system between December 2016 and April 2017. We described the reported deaths and used ordered logistic regression modeling to examine the potential drivers of reporting motivations.

Findings

Analysis of the number of deaths reported to the 1-1-7 system showed that 12% of the expected deaths were captured in 2017 compared to approximately 34% in 2016 and over 100% in 2015. We interviewed 1,291 death reporters in the survey. Family members reported 56% of the deaths. Nearly every respondent (94%) expressed that they wanted the 1-1-7 system to continue. The most common motivation to report was to obey the government’s mandate (82%). Respondents felt more motivated to report if the decedent exhibited Ebola-like symptoms (adjusted odds ratio 2.3; 95% confidence interval 1.8–2.9).

Conclusions

Motivation to report deaths that resembled Ebola in the post-outbreak setting may have been influenced by knowledge and experiences from the prolonged epidemic. Transitioning the system to a routine mortality surveillance tool may require a robust social mobilization component to match the high reporting levels during the epidemic, which exceeded more than 100% of expected deaths in 2015.

By November 2015 when the World Health Organization declared the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone to be over, approximately 95% of the population had become aware of the risk of Ebola transmission linked to physical contact with infected corpses, especially during traditional burials. Enhanced Ebola surveillance was implemented between November 2015 and June 2016, i.e. after the epidemic had officially ended to improve detection of possible new cases. Reporting to the 1-1-7 system declined nationally after enhanced Ebola surveillance ended even though the Government of Sierra Leone continued to mandate that all deaths must be reported. Based on a request from the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation, we conducted a telephone survey with a national sample of people who had reported a death in 2017 after the end of enhanced surveillance to understand their motivations for reporting and describe the deaths that they reported. In addition, we analyzed the five-year trends (2014–2019) in the number of deaths reported through the system. Analysis of monthly summary data of deaths reported showed that on the last month of enhanced surveillance, 3,851 deaths were reported compared to 2,456 deaths in the month immediately after (July 2016). The monthly numbers of reported deaths continued to plummet and reached as low as 1,550 in January 2017, 673 in January 2018, and 586 in January 2019. In the survey, we uncovered that people who reported deaths were mainly motivated to do so in order to comply with the Government’s mandate. After adjusting for potential confounders, motivations to report were strongly associated with the presence of Ebola-like symptoms in the decedent. Additional investigations are needed to unveil reporting barriers among people who failed to report household deaths to the 1-1-7 system to optimize reporting levels. It has been shown that during the Ebola epidemic that it is possible to reach high levels of death reporting in Sierra Leone as exemplified by the fact that in 2015 more than 100% of the expected deaths nationally were reported; albeit not counting potential duplicates. The post-Ebola-outbreak setting provides a unique opportunity to improve future overall mortality surveillance in Sierra Leone and contribute to the establishment of civil registration of vital statistics.

In Vivo Imaging-Driven Approaches to Study Virus Dissemination and Pathogenesis

Viruses are causative agents for many diseases and infect all living organisms on the planet. Development of effective therapies has relied on our ability to isolate and culture viruses in vitro, allowing mechanistic studies and strategic interventions. While this reductionist approach is necessary, testing the relevance of in vitro findings often takes a very long time. New developments in imaging technologies are transforming our experimental approach where viral pathogenesis can be studied in vivo at multiple spatial and temporal resolutions. Here, we outline a vision of a top-down approach using noninvasive whole-body imaging as a guide for in-depth characterization of key tissues, physiologically relevant cell types, and pathways of spread to elucidate mechanisms of virus spread and pathogenesis. Tool development toward imaging of infectious diseases is expected to transform clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Filovirus Virulence in Interferon α/β and γ Double Knockout Mice, and Treatment with Favipiravir

The 2014 Ebolavirus outbreak in West Africa highlighted the need for vaccines and therapeutics to prevent and treat filovirus infections. A well-characterized small animal model that is susceptible to wild-type filoviruses would facilitate the screening of anti-filovirus agents. To that end, we characterized knockout mice lacking α/β and γ interferon receptors (IFNAGR KO) as a model for wild-type filovirus infection. Intraperitoneal challenge of IFNAGR KO mice with several known human pathogenic species from the genus Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus, except Bundibugyo ebolavirus and Taï Forest ebolavirus, caused variable mortality rate. Further characterization of the prototype Ebola virus Kikwit isolate infection in this KO mouse model showed 100% lethality down to a dilution equivalent to 1.0 × 10⁻¹ pfu with all deaths occurring between 7 and 9 days post-challenge. Viral RNA was detectable in serum after challenge with 1.0 × 10² pfu as early as one day after infection. Changes in hematology and serum chemistry became pronounced as the disease progressed and mirrored the histological changes in the spleen and liver that were also consistent with those described for patients with Ebola virus disease. In a proof-of-principle study, treatment of Ebola virus infected IFNAGR KO mice with favipiravir resulted in 83% protection. Taken together, the data suggest that IFNAGR KO mice may be a useful model for early screening of anti-filovirus medical countermeasures.

Serologic Markers for Ebolavirus Among Healthcare Workers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Healthcare settings have played a major role in propagation of Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreaks. Healthcare workers (HCWs) have elevated risk of contact with EBOV-infected patients, particularly if safety precautions are not rigorously practiced. We conducted a serosurvey to determine seroprevalence against multiple EBOV antigens among HCWs of Boende Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the site of a 2014 EBOV outbreak. Interviews and specimens were collected from 565 consenting HCWs. Overall, 234 (41.4%) of enrolled HCWs were reactive to at least 1 EBOV protein: 159 (28.1%) were seroreactive for anti-glycoprotein immunoglobulin G (IgG), 89 (15.8%) were seroreactive for anti-nucleoprotein IgG, and 54 (9.5%) were VP40 positive. Additionally, sera from 16 (2.8%) HCWs demonstrated neutralization capacity. These data demonstrate that a significant proportion of HCWs have the ability to neutralize virus, despite never having developed Ebola virus disease symptoms, highlighting an important and poorly documented aspect of EBOV infection and progression.

Flexible docking-based molecular dynamics simulation of natural product compounds and Ebola virus Nucleocapsid (EBOV NP): a computational approach to discover new drug for combating Ebola

Background

Ebola still remains as one of the most problematic infectious diseases in Africa with a high rate of mortality. Although this disease has been known for an almost half-century, there are no vaccines and drugs available in the market to treat Ebola. Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), a single-stranded RNA virus which belongs to Filoviridae family and Mononegavirales order, is one of the virus causing Ebola. As one of seven proteins that EBOV encodes, Ebola virus nucleoprotein (EBOV NP) plays an imperative role in EBOV proliferation cycle. Therefore, the development of a new Ebola treatment can be targeted towards EBOV NP.

Results

In this work, we screened about 190,084 natural product compounds from ZINC15 database through in silico virtual screening and flexible docking simulation. Furthermore, the bioavailability and toxicity prediction have been conducted as well. Two best ligands according to the simulation and prediction tests were progressed into the molecular dynamics simulation.

Conclusion

In the end, we found that our proposed ligands, namely α-lipomycin (ZINC56874155) and 3-(((S)-1-amino-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroisoquinolin-5-yl)methyl)-5-((5-((5R,7S)-5,7-dihydroxy-3-oxodecyl)-2-hydroxyphenoxy) methyl)pyrrolo[3,4-b]pyrrol-5-ium (ZINC85628951), showed the promising results to be developed as a lead compounds for treating Ebola. Therefore, an experimental study is required to validate their inhibition activities against EBOV NP.

A conserved transcriptional response to intranasal Ebola virus exposure in nonhuman primates prior to onset of fever

Ebola virus disease (EVD), caused by Ebola virus (EBOV), is a severe illness characterized by case fatality rates of up to 90%. The sporadic nature of outbreaks in resource-limited areas has hindered the ability to characterize the pathogenesis of EVD at all stages of infection but particularly early host responses. Pathogenesis is often studied in nonhuman primate (NHP) models of disease that replicate major aspects of human EVD. Typically, NHP models use a large infectious dose, are carried out through intramuscular or aerosol exposure, and have a fairly uniform disease course. By contrast, we report our analysis of the host response to EBOV after intranasal exposure. Twelve cynomolgus macaques were infected with 100 plaque-forming units of EBOV/Makona through intranasal exposure and presented with varying times to onset of EVD. We used RNA sequencing and a newly developed NanoString CodeSet to monitor the host response via changes in RNA transcripts over time. When individual animal gene expression data were phased based on the onset of sustained fever, the first clinical sign of severe disease, mathematical models indicated that interferon-stimulated genes appeared as early as 4 days before fever onset. This demonstrates that lethal EVD has a uniform and predictable response to infection regardless of time to onset. Furthermore, expression of a subset of genes could predict disease development before other host-based indications of infection such as fever.

National survey of Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes and practices before the outbreak peak in Sierra Leone: August 2014

Background

The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever to occur. In the early phases, little was known about public knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) relating to Ebola virus disease (Ebola). Data were needed to develop evidence-driven strategies to address gaps in knowledge and practice.

Methods

In August 2014, we conducted interviews with 1413 randomly selected respondents from 9 out of 14 districts in Sierra Leone using multistage cluster sampling. Where suitable, Ebola-related KAP questions were adapted from other internationally validated questionnaires related to infectious diseases.

Results

All respondents were aware of Ebola. When asked unprompted, 60% of respondents could correctly cite fever, diarrhoea and vomiting as signs/symptoms of Ebola. A majority of respondents knew that avoiding infected blood and bodily fluids (87%) and contact with an infected corpse (85%) could prevent Ebola. However, there were also widespread misconceptions such as the belief that Ebola can be prevented by washing with salt and hot water (41%). Almost everyone interviewed (95%) expressed at least one discriminatory attitude towards Ebola survivors. Unprompted, self-reported actions taken to avoid Ebola infection included handwashing with soap (66%) and avoiding physical contact with patients with suspected Ebola (40%).

Conclusion

Three months into the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, our findings suggest there was high awareness of the disease but misconceptions and discriminatory attitudes toward survivors remained common. These findings directly informed the development of a national social mobilisation strategy and demonstrated the importance of KAP assessment early in an epidemic.

Ebola virus - epidemiology, diagnosis, and control: threat to humans, lessons learnt, and preparedness plans - an update on its 40 year's journey

Ebola virus (EBOV) is an extremely contagious pathogen and causes lethal hemorrhagic fever disease in man and animals. The recently occurred Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in the West African countries have categorized it as an international health concern. For the virus maintenance and transmission, the non-human primates and reservoir hosts like fruit bats have played a vital role. For curbing the disease timely, we need effective therapeutics/prophylactics, however, in the absence of any approved vaccine, timely diagnosis and monitoring of EBOV remains of utmost importance. The technologically advanced vaccines like a viral-vectored vaccine, DNA vaccine and virus-like particles are underway for testing against EBOV. In the absence of any effective control measure, the adaptation of high standards of biosecurity measures, strict sanitary and hygienic practices, strengthening of surveillance and monitoring systems, imposing appropriate quarantine checks and vigilance on trade, transport, and movement of visitors from EVD endemic countries remains the answer of choice for tackling the EBOV spread. Herein, we converse with the current scenario of EBOV giving due emphasis on animal and veterinary perspectives along with advances in diagnosis and control strategies to be adopted, lessons learned from the recent outbreaks and the global preparedness plans. To retrieve the evolutionary information, we have analyzed a total of 56 genome sequences of various EBOV species submitted between 1976 and 2016 in public databases.

The 117 call alert system in Sierra Leone: from rapid Ebola notification to routine death reporting

A toll-free, nationwide phone alert system was established for rapid notification and response during the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The system remained in place after the end of the epidemic under a policy of mandatory reporting and Ebola testing for all deaths, and, from June 2016, testing only in case of suspected Ebola. We describe the design, implementation and changes in the system; analyse calling trends during and after the Ebola epidemic; and discuss strengths and limitations of the system and its potential role in efforts to improve death reporting in Sierra Leone. Numbers of calls to report deaths of any cause (death alerts) and persons suspected of having Ebola (live alerts) were analysed by province and district and compared with numbers of Ebola cases reported by the WHO. Nearly 350 000 complete, non-prank calls were made to 117 between September 2014 and December 2016. The maximum number of daily death and live alerts was 9344 (October 2014) and 3031 (December 2014), respectively. Call volumes decreased as Ebola incidence declined and continued to decrease in the post-Ebola period. A national social mobilisation strategy was especially targeted to influential religious leaders, traditional healers and women's groups. The existing infrastructure and experience with the system offer an opportunity to consider long-term use as a death reporting tool for civil registration and mortality surveillance, including rapid detection and control of public health threats. A routine social mobilisation component should be considered to increase usage.

How to treat Ebola virus infections? A lesson from the field

The reported case fatality ratios (CFR) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been as high as 90% in previous outbreaks. While the cumulative CFR among patients medically evacuated and treated in Western countries was inferior to 20%, it peaked to approximately 75% between September and December 2014 in West Africa, thereafter decreasing to less than 40% (May 2015) without current evidence of major virus mutations capable to alter virus pathogenicity over the course of the epidemic. Therefore, the observed diminution of CFR is likely to reflect improvement of EVD patient care. Here, we summarize major lessons learned, that is, progresses and knowledge gaps, about the clinical management of patients in West African settings during the 2014-2016 outbreak.