Risk factors for heart failure and coronary heart disease mortality over 24-year follow-up period in Japan: NIPPON DATA80

Risk Factors for Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Mortality Based on the National Vital Statistics During a 25-Year Follow-up in Japan - NIPPON DATA90

BACKGROUND

Prevention of heart failure (HF) is a public health issue. Using the National Vital Statistics, we explored risk factors for HF and coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Altogether, 7,556 Japanese individuals aged ≥30 years in 1990 were followed over 25 years; of these, 139 and 154 died from HF and CAD, respectively. In multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, common risk factors for CAD and HF mortality were hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.00-2.20] and 2.31 [95% CI 1.48-3.61], respectively), diabetes (HR 2.52 [95% CI 1.63-3.90] and 2.07 [95% CI 1.23-3.50], respectively), and current smoking (HR 2.05 [95% CI 1.27-3.31) and 1.86 [95% CI 1.10-3.15], respectively). Specific risk factors for CAD were male sex, chronic kidney disease, history of cardiovascular disease, and both abnormal T and Q waves, with HRs (95% CIs) of 1.75 (1.05-2.92), 1.78 (1.19-2.66), 2.50 (1.62-3.88), and 11.4 (3.64-36.0), respectively. Specific factors for HF were current drinking (HR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24-0.78) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C; HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.67-0.98). There was an inverse association between non-HDL-C and HF in those aged ≥65 years (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.56-0.90), but not in those aged <65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified common risk factors for HF and CAD deaths; a history of cardiovascular disease was a specific risk for CAD.

Pre- and post-diagnosis body mass index and heart failure mortality: a dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies reveals greater risk of being underweight than being overweight

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the dose-response association between pre- and post-diagnosis body mass index (BMI) and heart failure (HF) mortality.

METHODS

Eligible observational studies were searched in databases, up to November 2017. We used random-effects generalized least squares spline models for trend estimation to derive pooled BMI unit-HF mortality relationship.

RESULTS

Sixteen cohort studies (six pre-diagnosis and 10 post-diagnosis BMI) were included, comprising a total of 258,379 subjects with 13,201 deaths due to HF. A nonlinear U-shaped association was found between pre-diagnosis BMI and the risk of HF mortality, with a greater risk from being at the lowest extreme, rather than being at the top category. The combined hazard ratio of HF mortality among the highest compared to the lowest category of pre-diagnosis BMI was 1.24 (0.65-2.37, I²  = 90.7%). No significant nonlinear association was found between post-diagnosis BMI and HF mortality as well as when comparing the highest to the lowest category of BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis showed those with both high and low pre-diagnosis BMI had higher risk for HF mortality, with a greater risk from being too underweight, rather than being obese. No significant association was found between post-diagnosis BMI and the risk of HF mortality. Further detailed investigations are needed to accurately examine the potential mechanistic links between BMI and health outcomes.

The sex-specific association between BMI and coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 95 cohorts with 1·2 million participants

BACKGROUND

The risk of developing coronary heart disease differs by sex, and accumulating evidence suggests that sex differences exist in the effect of coronary risk factors on vascular risk. So far, the existence of a sex difference in the association between BMI and coronary heart disease has not been systematically studied. Since sexual dimorphisms in body composition exist, we postulated that the association between BMI and coronary heart disease would differ between women and men.

METHODS

We did systematic searches of PubMed and Embase up to Feb 20, 2015, for studies of the longitudinal association between BMI and coronary heart disease in women and men from population-based cohorts. We excluded studies if they contained duplicate data from the same study, reported estimates only for Z scores or percentiles of BMI, did not report estimate uncertainty, did not report sex-specific estimates, recruited mainly individuals with a previous history of cardiovascular disease or from within selected populations, and those for which the full text was not available in English. We also included individual participant data from four large studies. Study results were pooled using random-effect models with inverse variance weighting. Our predefined primary endpoint was the pooled women-to-men ratio of the age-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), or equivalent, relating (continuous and categorical) BMI to coronary heart disease.

FINDINGS

We reviewed a total of 8561 original entries twice for inclusion in the analysis, of which 32 published studies were eligible for inclusion. Data from 95 cohorts, 1,219,187 participants, and 37,488 incident cases of coronary heart disease were included. Higher BMI was significantly associated with age-adjusted coronary heart disease: for a one-unit (kg/m(2)) increment in BMI; the HR was 1·04 (95% CI 1·03-1·05) in women and 1·05 (1·04-1·07) in men. Compared with people of a normal weight, the age-adjusted HR of coronary heart disease for the underweight group was 1·25 (1·05-1·49) in women and 1·09 (0·91-1·23) in men; for the overweight group 1·20 (1·12-1·29) in women and 1·22 (1·12-1·32) in men; and for the obese group 1·61 (1·42-1·82) in women and 1·60 (1·43-1·79) in men. Overall, these associations did not differ between the sexes. The women-to-men ratios of the HRs were 0·99 (95% CI 0·98-1·00) for a one-unit increment in BMI, 1·10 (0·91-1·32) for the underweight group, 0·99 (0·92-1·07) for the overweight group, and 1·06 (0·95-1·17) for the obese group, relative to the normal weight group. Similar results were obtained after multiple adjustment and in a range of sensitivity analyses.

INTERPRETATION

Increased BMI, measured either continuously or categorically, has the same deleterious effects on the risk of coronary heart disease in women and men across diverse populations.

FUNDING

None.

Prognostic Values of Clockwise and Counterclockwise Rotation for Cardiovascular Mortality in Japanese Subjects

Background—

Although clockwise rotation and counterclockwise rotation are distinct findings of the ECG, their prognostic significance is rarely studied.

Methods and Results—

We studied prognostic values of clockwise and counterclockwise rotation on total, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and subtype mortality using the National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Noncommunicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged, 1980–2004 (NIPPON DATA80) database with a 24-year follow-up. At baseline in 1980, data were collected on study participants aged ≥30 years from randomly selected areas in Japan. We followed 9067 participants (44% men; mean age, 51 years). During the 24-year follow-up, mortality was as follows: 2581 total, 887 CVD, 179 coronary heart disease, 173 heart failure, and 411 stroke. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with the use of the Cox model including biochemical and other ECG variables revealed that clockwise rotation was significantly positively associated with heart failure in men and women combined (HR=1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–2.83; P =0.013), CVD in men and in men and women combined (HR=1.49; 95% CI, 1.12–1.98; P =0.007 in men; HR=1.28; 95% CI, 1.02–1.59; P =0.030 in combined), and total mortality in men and in men and women combined (HR=1.19; 95% CI, 1.00–1.49; P =0.0496 in men; HR=1.15; 95% CI, 1.00–1.32; P =0.045 in combined). Counterclockwise rotation was significantly inversely associated stroke in men and women combined (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.62–0.96; P =0.017), CVD in men and in men and women combined (HR=0.74; 95% CI, 0.59–0.94; P =0.011 in men; HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.70–0.94; P =0.006 in combined), and total mortality in women (HR=0.87; 95% CI, 0.77–0.98; P =0.023).

Conclusions—

We found a significant positive association of clockwise rotation and a significant inverse association of counterclockwise rotation with CVD mortality in men and in men and women combined, independent of confounding factors including other ECG changes.