Hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment by the measurement of liver stiffness variations in HCV cirrhotics treated with direct acting antivirals

Liver Stiffness Evaluation in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Cirrhosis before and after Direct-Acting Antivirals

After the introduction of direct-acting antivirals, parallel significant clinical progress has been achieved in the assessment of liver fibrosis progression/regression before treatment and during the follow-up of the cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The evolution of chronic hepatitis C into liver cirrhosis is correlated with an extensive accumulation of the extracellular matrix, leading to the formation of large amounts of fibrotic tissues that, initially, are concentrated in periportal areas and, in the later stages, surround the nodules of regenerating hepatocytes. The progressive increase in the fibrotic matrix contributes to vascular disturbances (favoring the development of portal hypertension) and to microenvironmental changes. The four clinical stages of liver cirrhosis are predictors for different clinical scenarios. The wide-ranging functions of the liver require different methods for their assessment. The non-invasive evaluation using transient elastography is useful in determining the longitudinal modifications of fibrosis during and after treatment with direct-acting antivirals. The liver stiffness evaluation, known to have a wide range of values in cirrhotic patients, can offer different prognostic implications after sustained virological response. This review discusses the different time points of liver stiffness evaluation that appear to show a more well-defined propensity to identify adequate monitoring schedules for these patients.

Noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis can predict clinical outcomes at late follow-up after a sustained virological response in HCV patients?

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to evaluate Liver-Related Events (LREs), including hepatic decompensation (ascites, hemorrhagic varices and encephalopathy) and Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), as well as changes in liver stiffness during the follow-up period among patients who achieved a Sustained Virological Response (SVR) after treatment for chronic Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

A total of 218 patients with HCV were treated, and those who achieved an SVR were followed up for 3-years. Transient Elastography (TE) using FibroScan® was performed at various time points: before treatment, at the end of treatment, at 6-months post-treatment, at 1-year post-treatment, at 2-years post-treatment, and at 3-years post-treatment.

RESULTS

At 6-months post-treatment, a Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) cutoff of > 19 KPa was identified, leading to a 14.5-fold increase in the hazard of negative outcomes, including decompensation and/or HCC. The analysis of relative changes in liver stiffness between pre-treatment and 6-months posttreatment revealed that a reduction in LSM of -10 % was associated with a -12 % decrease in the hazard of decompensation and/or HCC, with this trend continuing as the LSM reduction reached -40 %, resulting in a -41 % hazard of decompensation and/or HCC. Conversely, an increase in the relative change during this period, such as an LSM increase of +10 %, led to a + 14 % increase in the hazard of decompensation. In cases where this relative change in LSM was +50 %, the hazard of decompensation increased to +92.

CONCLUSION

Transient elastography using FibroScan® can be a good tool for monitoring HCV patients with SVR after treatment to predict LREs in the long term.

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

Dynamics of liver stiffness predicts complications in patients with HCV related cirrhosis treated with direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

Direct acting antivirals(DAAs) are effective in reducing inflammatory ant fibrotic markers in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus(HCV) infection and to prevent liver-related complications. Two-dimensional shear wave elastography(2D-SWE) is an effective technique for the assessment of liver fibrosis.

AIM

To evaluate changes in liver stiffness(LS) in HCV cirrhotic patients undergoing DAA therapy and to identify non-invasive parameters that predict the occurrence of liver-related events.

METHODS

We enrolled 229 patients who received DAAs between January 2015 and October 2018. Ultrasound parameters and laboratory data were assessed before treatment and 24(T1) and 48(T2) weeks after end of treatment. Patients were followed up every 6 months to evaluate the development of HCC and other liver related complications. Multiple Cox regression analysis was used to determine parameters associated with the development of complications.

RESULTS

Model for End-stage Liver Disease(MELD) score(HR 1.16; CI 95% 1.01-1.33; p = 0.026) and a change in LS at T2(1-year Delta LS) < 20%(HR 2.98; CI 95% 1.01-8.1; p = 0.03) were independently associated with HCC risk. One-year Delta-LS <20% was independently associated with the development of ascites(HR 5.08; CI 95% 1.03 - 25.14; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic changes of 2D-SWE-measured LS after DAA therapy may be a useful tool to identify patients who are at higher risk of liver related complications.

Liver fibrosis estimated using extracellular volume fraction obtained from dual-energy CT as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response: A preliminary case-control study

PURPOSE

To assess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) through clinical data analyses, including evaluation of liver fibrosis using the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) obtained from dual-energy computed tomography (DECT).

METHODS

Ninety-two patients (52 men and 40 women; mean age, 69.9 years) with hepatitis C virus infection after SVR underwent DECT of the liver (3-minute equilibrium-phase images) between January 2020 and March 2022. The ECV was calculated by measuring iodine density; fibrous markers, including ECV, fibrosis-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, and platelet count, were statistically analyzed (p < 0.05). The risk factors associated with HCC were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The ECV (26.1 ± 4.6 %) in patients with HCC (n,21) was significantly larger than the ECV (20.7 ± 3.3 %) in patients without HCC (n = 71) (p < 0.001). The cutoff value for the ECV was 24.3 %. The area under the operating characteristic curve of the ECV was 0.857, which was higher than that of the serum fibrosis markers. Older age, SVR achieved with interferon, alpha-fetoprotein level (>5 ng/mL), advanced fibrosis before treatment (>F3), and ECV were associated with HCC according to the univariate analysis. Multivariate analyses showed that ECV was the only factor independently associated with HCC (odds ratio 0.619, 95 % confidence interval 0.482-0.795, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver fibrosis estimated using ECV can be a predictive marker in patients with HCC after SVR.

The Complex Interplay Relationship between HCV Infection, Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy, and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence

The new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are highly effective, despite the short duration of treatment, and very tolerable [...].

Association between Liver Stiffness and Liver-Related Events in HCV-Infected Patients after Successful Treatment with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background and Objectives: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, but the risk of liver-related events and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains after successful therapy. We aimed to evaluate post-treatment changes in liver stiffness (LS) and identify a cut-off LS value for predicting such events in chronic HCV-infected patients receiving DAA. Materials and Methods: A total of 185 patients who had achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) after DAA therapy were included. Baseline characteristics and laboratory results were retrospectively abstracted. LS was measured by transient elastography at baseline, 12, 24, 48, and 96 weeks after SVR. FIB-4 index was assessed at baseline and 48 weeks after SVR. Development of liver-related events (hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), portal-hypertension-related decompensation, listing for transplantation, and mortality) after SVR were identified. The association between liver fibrosis and the occurrence of liver-related events was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Results: Significant differences in LS values were observed between baseline and 24, 48, 72, and 96 weeks after SVR. FIB-4 index at 48 weeks after SVR was significantly lower than the FIB-4 index at baseline. During the 41.6-month follow-up time, the incidence rates of all liver-related events and HCC were 2.36 and 1.17 per 100 person-years, respectively. Age, LS ≥8 kPa, and FIB-4 ≥1.35 at 48 weeks post-SVR were significantly associated with the occurrence of any liver-related events. By multivariate analysis, LS ≥8 kPa at 48 weeks post-SVR remained significantly associated with any liver-related events, with an adjusted hazard ratio (95%CI) of 5.04 (1.01-25.26), p = 0.049. Conclusions: Despite a significant reduction in LS after SVR, patients with LS ≥8 kPa at 48 weeks after SVR should be regularly monitored for liver-related complications, particularly HCC development.

Non-invasive tools for compensated advanced chronic liver disease and portal hypertension after Baveno VII - an update

Non-invasive tests (NITs) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in particular, have entered clinical practice over 20 years ago as point-of-care tests to diagnose liver fibrosis in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. Since then, NITs use has evolved thanks to a large number of studies in all major etiologies of liver disease, and they have become important tools to stratify the risk of portal hypertension and liver-related events. The Baveno VII consensus workshop provided several novel recommendations regarding the use of well-established and novel NITs in the specific setting of portal hypertension screening, diagnosis and follow-up. The Baveno VII expert panels paid special attention to summarizing the existing data into simple clinical rules able to guide clinicians in their practice. The "rule of five" for LSM is a tool to stratify the risk of liver-related events, and LSM alone or in combination with platelet count, can be used now to rule-in and rule-out compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and clinically significant portal hypertension, as well as to rule-out high-risk varices. Use of NITs in obese subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients with viral hepatitis C that has been successfully treated, require specific knowledge. This review will update the reader on these aspects.

Profiling the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after long-term HCV eradication in patients with liver cirrhosis in the PITER cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Severe liver disease markers assessed before HCV eradication are acknowledged to usually improve after the SVR. We prospectively evaluated, in the PITER cohort, the long-term HCC risk profile based on predictors monitored after HCV eradication by direct-acting antivirals in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

HCC occurrence was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis identified the post-treatment variables associated with de-novo HCC; their predictive power was presented in a nomogram.

RESULTS

After the end of therapy (median follow-up:28.47 months), among 2064 SVR patients, 119 (5.8%) developed de-novo HCC. The HCC incidence was 1.90%, 4.21%, 6.47% at 12-, 24- and 36-months from end-of-therapy, respectively (incidence rate 2.45/100 person-years). Age, genotype 3, diabetes, platelets (PLT)≤120,000/µl and albumin ≤3.5g/dl levels were identified as pre-treatment HCC independent predictors. Adjusting for age, the post-treatment PLT≤120,000/µl (AdjHR 1.92; 95%CI:1.06-3.45) and albumin≤3.5g/dl (AdjHR 4.38; 95%CI 2.48-7.75) values were independently associated with HCC occurrence. Two different risk profiles were identified by combining long-term post-therapy evaluation of PLT ≤ vs. >120,000/µl and albumin ≤ vs. >3.5g/dl showing a significant different HCC incidence rate of 1.35 vs. 3.77/100 p-y, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram score based on age, PLT and albumin levels after SVR showed an accurate prediction capability and may support the customizing management for early HCC detection.

Comparing Predictability of Non-invasive Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tools including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) or FIB-4, assessed before or after direct acting antivirals (DAA), have been suggested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

This study aims to compare predictability of HCC by these methods at different time points, to validate the HCC surveillance suggestion by guidelines, and to propose personalized strategy.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C whose LSM and FIB-4 were available at pretherapy and after sustained virological response (SVR) were enrolled. Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) was defined as pretherapy LSM ≥ 10 kPa or FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 or ultrasound signs of cirrhosis plus platelet count < 150,000/μL. The predictabilities were compared by area under ROC. The cumulative HCC incidences were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Among 466 ACLD patients, 40 patients developed HCC during a follow-up duration of 26.8 months. Comparable predictive performances for HCC between LSM and FIB-4 at pretherapy and SVR were noted. By guidelines suggestion using pretherapy LSM = 10 kPa (advanced fibrosis) and 13 kPa (cirrhosis) for risk stratification, the annual HCC incidences of those with LSM of < 10, 10-12.9 and ≥ 13 kPa were 1.1, 3.6, and 5.0%, respectively. Combination of baseline LSM < 12 kPa and SVR FIB-4 < 3.7 could further stratify relatively low risk of HCC in ACLD patients of annal incidence of 1.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLD patients who met advanced fibrosis but not cirrhosis by guidelines' cut-offs still posed high risk of HCC. Baseline LSM with SVR FIB-4 can be applied to stratify low, intermediate, and high risk of HCC for personalizing surveillance strategies after SVR.

Update on the role of elastography in liver disease

The diagnosis of liver fibrosis and the assessment of its severity are important to provide appropriate management, to determine the prognosis or the need for surveillance. Currently, for fibrosis staging, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with the shear wave elastography (SWE) techniques is considered a reliable substitute for liver biopsy in several clinical scenarios. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that stiffness value is a biomarker of diffuse liver disease that must be interpreted taking into consideration anamnesis, clinical and laboratory data. In patients with diffuse liver disease, it is more clinically relevant to determine the likelihood of advanced disease rather than to obtain an exact stage of liver fibrosis using a histologic classification. In this regard, a 'rule of five' for LSMs with vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and a 'rule of four' for LSMs with the acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI)-based techniques have been proposed. In patients with advanced chronic liver disease (CLD), the risk of liver decompensation increases with increasing liver stiffness value. SWE has been proposed as a tool to predict the risk of death or complications in patients with CLD. LSM by VCTE combined with platelets count is a validated non-invasive method for varices screening, with very good results in terms of invasive procedures being spared. ARFI-based techniques also show some promising results in this setting. LSM, alone or combined in scores or algorithms with other parameters, is used to evaluate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence. Due to the high prevalence of CLD, screening the population at risk is of interest but further studies are needed.

Combined ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography predict hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication

AIM

Elastography is an established, noninvasive method for measuring liver stiffness using to 2-D shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE) or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of combined measurement using 2D-SWE and MRE to stratify the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who achieved hepatitis C virus eradication.

METHODS

Five hundred and twenty-five patients who underwent 2D-SWE and MRE before antiviral therapy and who achieved eradication were enrolled. The optimal 2D-SWE and MRE cutoff values were determined using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting HCC development. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to adjust the cumulative incidence rate of HCC development for potential imbalances.

RESULTS

Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values of 2D-SWE and MRE for predicting HCC development were 11.7 and 4.5 kPa, respectively. The IPTW-adjusted cumulative incidence rate of HCC development in patients with both an 2D-SWE value ≥ 11.7 kPa and an MRE value ≥ 4.5 kPa had a higher hazard ratio (28.080; 95% confidence interval, 5.527-132.600; p < 0.001) than those with either an 2D-SWE value < 11.7 kPa or an MRE value < 4.5 kPa.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined measurement of 2D-SWE and MRE was very effective for identifying patients at high risk of HCC development. US-based elastography should be performed first, and if the 2D-SWE value is high, MRE should then be carried out to confirm the degree of liver stiffness.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

AIMS

Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit.

METHODS

Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification.

RESULTS

Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5-8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6-6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085-7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001-1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by chronic hepatitis C who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We developed risk stratification algorithms for de novo HCC development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort.

METHODS

We evaluated the occurrence of de novo HCC in a derivation cohort of 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. We validated our results in 1,500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 patients with cACLD (4.6%, 1.45/100 patient-years) vs. 12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100 patient-years, p <0.001) developed de novo HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de novo HCC development during FU than pre-treatment values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP, alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin, accurately predicted de novo HCC development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with/without considering alcohol: 0.893/0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low- (~2/3 of patients) and high-risk (~1/3 of patients) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk: 0% vs. 16.5%) and validation (3.3% vs. 17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin (i.e., without AFP) also showed a robust performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol consumption, accurately stratified patients with cACLD based on their risk of de novo HCC after SVR. Approximately two-thirds were identified as having an HCC risk <1%/year in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC surveillance.

LAY SUMMARY

Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately two-thirds) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.

HIGH VALUES OF LIVER STIFFNESS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN STRATIFYING THE RISK OF HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA IN CIRRHOTIC HEPATITIS C PATIENTS

BACKGROUND

Evaluate the role of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in a prospective cohort of Brazilian hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A cohort of 99 consecutive HCV patients was included between 2011 and 2016 with baseline LSM ≥12 kilopascals (kPa). Baseline variables were evaluated and HCC occurrence was documented. Kaplan-Meier methods with a log-rank test and the use of cox univariate and multivariate analysis assessed the association between variables and clinical results.

RESULTS

The mean age was 57.8±10.6 years. In a follow-up over a mean of 3.3 years, 20 (20.2%) patients developed HCC. In univariate logistic regression analysis, variables associated with HCC occurrence were: lower platelet count (P=0.0446), higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (P=0.0041) and bilirubin (P=0.0008) values, higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (P=0.0068) and higher LSM (P=0.0354). LSM evaluated by TE was independently associated with HCC development, and the best cut-off value for higher HCC risk was >21.1 kPa (HR: 5.548; 95%CI: 1.244-24.766; P=0.025).

CONCLUSION

A high value of liver stiffness relates substantially to an increased risk for HCC occurrence in Brazilian patients with cirrhosis due to HCV.

Staging Fibrosis in Chronic Viral Hepatitis

Staging fibrosis accurately has always been a challenge in viral hepatitis and other liver diseases. Liver biopsy is an imperfect gold standard due to its intra and interobserver agreement limitations and additional characteristics such as its safety and cost. Hence, non-invasive tests have been developed to stage liver fibrosis. In addition to serological biomarkers, physical tests with reasonable accuracy are available and adopted in the daily clinic regarding viral hepatitis fibrosis staging. In this review, we discuss the published data regarding the staging of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B and C, emphasizing non-invasive markers of fibrosis, both serological and physical. Moreover, we also discuss a persistent central gap, the evaluation of liver fibrosis after HCV cure.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus cure

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a significant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The direct-acting antivirals marked a new era of HCV therapy and are associated with greater than 95% cure rate. Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C greatly reduces the risk of HCC. A proportion of patients, especially those with pre-existing cirrhosis, remain at risk for HCC despite sustained virologic response (SVR). Diabetes mellitus, hepatic steatosis, alcohol consumption and lack of fibrosis regression are associated with risks of HCC after HCV cure. Noninvasive modalities such as aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index and fibrosis-4 index and transient elastography have been used to monitor hepatic fibrosis. More recently, various fibrosis scores have been combined with clinical parameters and other novel biomarkers to predict risks of HCC for patients who achieved SVR. These models still need to be validated and standardized prior to applying to routine clinical care.

Predictive Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment of HCV

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is still one of the major risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most frequent type of primary liver cancer. Direct-acting antivirals have substantially improved the cure rate of the virus, but the risk of hepatitis C virus-related HCC remains high, mainly in patients with advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. HCC is often asymptomatic and, therefore, remains undetected until the late tumor stage, which is associated with poor survival rates. Therefore, to improve the surveillance programs following HCV eradication, there is a need to summarize predictive factors or potential biomarkers, to specifically identify patients likely to develop HCC after direct-acting antiviral treatment. This review outlines the most recent data about different predictive factors for HCC development after direct-acting antiviral treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients, to improve the clinical management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus.

Elastography as a predictor of liver cirrhosis complications after hepatitis C virus eradication in the era of direct-acting antivirals

Chronic inflammation due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection leads to liver fibrosis and rearrangement of liver tissue, which is responsible for the development of portal hypertension (PH) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The advent of direct-acting antiviral drugs has revolutionized the natural history of HCV infection, providing an overall eradication rate of over 90%. Despite a significant decrease after sustained virological response (SVR), the rate of HCC and liver-related complications is not completely eliminated in patients with advanced liver disease. Although the reasons are still unclear, cirrhosis itself has a residual risk for the development of HCC and other PH-related complications. Ultrasound elastography is a recently developed non-invasive technique for the assessment of liver fibrosis. Following the achievement of SVR, liver stiffness (LS) usually decreases, as a consequence of reduced inflammation and, possibly, fibrosis. Recent studies emphasized the application of LS assessment in the management of patients with SVR in order to define the risk for developing the complications of chronic liver disease (functional decompensation, gastrointestinal bleeding, HCC) and to optimize long-term prognostic outcomes in clinical practice.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk after viral response in hepatitis C virus-advanced fibrosis: Who to screen and for how long?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection is associated with fibrosis progression, end-stage liver complications and HCC. Not surprisingly, HCV infection is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. After sustained virological response (SVR), the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma is not completely eliminated in patients with established cirrhosis or with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, lifelong surveillance is currently recommended. This strategy is likely not universally cost-effective and harmless, considering that not all patients with advanced fibrosis have the same risk of developing HCC. Factors related to the severity of liver disease and its potential to improve after SVR, the molecular and epigenetic changes that occur during infection and other associated comorbidities might account for different risk levels and are likely essential for identifying patients who would benefit from screening programs after SVR. Efforts to develop predictive models and risk calculators, biomarkers and genetic panels and even deep learning models to estimate the individual risk of HCC have been made in the direct-acting antiviral agents era, when thousands of patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis have reached SVR. These tools could help to identify patients with very low HCC risk in whom surveillance might not be justified. In this review, factors affecting the probability of HCC development after SVR, the benefits and risks of surveillance, suggested strategies to estimate individualized HCC risk and the current evidence to recommend lifelong surveillance are discussed.

Liver stiffness-based score at sustained virologic response predicts liver-related complications after eradication of hepatitis C virus

To determine whether liver stiffness (LS) and fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) index were useful in assessing the occurrence of liver-related complications (LRC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) had been administered. This retrospective study enrolled CHC patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA. A total of 697 (male/female: 294/403, mean age: 63.8 year) patients with measured LS and complete lab data at SVR were enrolled, followed, and analyzed. In a median follow-up of 21.4 months after SVR, 39 patients developed LRC including 28 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the 30-month cumulative incidence of LRC and HCC being 7.7% and 5.1%, respectively. Predictions of occurrence of LRC and HCC were 0.820 and 0.774 for LS, and 0.775 and 0.737 for Fib-4, with optimal cutoffs of LS and Fib-4 being 14.5 kPa and 2.9 for LRC prediction. In multivariate analysis, LS was associated with the occurrence of LRC (hazard ratio: 3.97, 95% confidence interval [1.866, 8.446], p < 0.001) after adjustment for Fib-4 and diabetes. A risk-score system combining LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was developed for LRC risk assessment. Patients were stratified into low- (score 0-1), intermediate- (score 2-3), and high-risk (score 4) groups with LRC cumulative incidences of 1.7%, 14.9%, and 36.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). For patients with CHC after DAA, the risk scoring system based on LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was useful to assess the risk of LRC development during follow-up; accordingly, it would be advantageous for clinicians to set up more personalized and cost-effective strategies of surveillance.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on non-invasive tests for evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis - 2021 update

Non-invasive tests are increasingly being used to improve the diagnosis and prognostication of chronic liver diseases across aetiologies. Herein, we provide the latest update to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the use of non-invasive tests for the evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis, focusing on the topics for which relevant evidence has been published in the last 5 years.

Risk Factors for Liver Decompensation and HCC in HCV-Cirrhotic Patients after DAAs: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Simple Summary

The present study explored the predictors of the development of liver-related events in HCV cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR following antiviral therapy with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) during a follow-up of 24 months after SVR confirmation. Patients had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥14 kPa at baseline. We found that baseline liver stiffness ≥ 20 kPa and HCV genotype different from 1 were both independent predictors of liver decompensation, while only LSM ≥ 20 kPa was an independent predictor of HCC.

Abstract

Background: Prospective studies on predictors of liver-related events in cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR after DAAs are lacking. Methods: We prospectively enrolled HCV cirrhotic patients in four Italian centers between November 2015 and October 2017. SVR and no-SVR cases were compared according to the presence or absence of liver-related events during a 24-month follow-up. Independent predictors of liver-related events were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 706 subjects started DAAs therapy. SVR was confirmed in 687 (97.3%). A total of 61 subjects (8.9%) in the SVR group and 5 (26.3%) in the no-SVR group had liver-related events (p < 0.03). The incidence rate x 100 p/y was 1.6 for HCC, 1.7 for any liver decompensation, and 0.5 for hepatic death. Baseline liver stiffness (LSM) ≥ 20 kPa (HR 4.0; 95% CI 1.1–14.1) and genotype different from 1 (HR 7.5; 95% CI 2.1–27.3) were both independent predictors of liver decompensation. Baseline LSM > 20 KPa (HR 7.2; 95% CI 1.9–26.7) was the sole independent predictor of HCC. A decrease in liver stiffness (Delta LSM) by at least 20% at the end of follow-up was not associated with a decreased risk of liver-related events. Conclusion: Baseline LSM ≥ 20 kPa identifies HCV cirrhotic subjects at higher risk of liver-related events after SVR.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.

Noninvasive Assessment of Hepatitis C Virus Infected Patients Using Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Surveillance of these patients is an essential strategy in the prevention chain, including in the pre/post-antiviral treatment states. Ultrasound elastography techniques are emerging as key methods in the assessment of liver diseases, with a number of advantages such as their rapid, noninvasive, and cost-effective characters. The present paper critically reviews the performance of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in the assessment of HCV patients. VCTE measures liver stiffness (LS) and the ultrasonic attenuation through the embedded controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), providing the clinician with a tool for assessing fibrosis, cirrhosis, and steatosis in a noninvasive manner. Moreover, standardized LS values enable proper staging of the underlying fibrosis, leading to an accurate identification of a subset of HCV patients that present a high risk for complications. In addition, VCTE is a valuable technique in evaluating liver fibrosis prior to HCV therapy. However, its applicability in monitoring fibrosis regression after HCV eradication is currently limited and further studies should focus on extending the boundaries of VCTE in this context. From a different perspective, VCTE may be effective in identifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). An emerging prospect of clinical significance that warrants further study is the identification of esophageal varices. Our opinion is that the advantages of VCTE currently outweigh those of other surveillance methods.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after HCV eradication: Determining the role of portal hypertension by measuring spleen stiffness

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) reduces but does not eliminate the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The development of surveillance strategies for HCC after the sustained virologic response (SVR) is therefore warranted. We aimed to evaluate the role of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in the prediction of HCC risk in a cohort of patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) treated with DAAs.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of 140 patients with HCV-related ACLD successfully treated with DAAs in our centre between 2015 and 2017. Patients with available liver stiffness (LSM) and SSM before treatment and 6 months after (SVR24) were included. A Cox regression model investigated the association between SSM and HCC development.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 41.5 (IQR 32-49) months, 20 patients presented with HCC. SSM at SVR24 predicted HCC development in univariate and adjusted multivariate analysis (hazard ratio: 1.025; 95% CI: 1.001-1.050); the best cut-off was 42 kPa. Patients with LSM-SVR24 ≤10 kPa were at the lowest risk of HCC. In patients with LSM-SVR24 >10 kPa, HCC incidence was not further influenced by LSM values (10-20 kPa vs. >20 kPa), but only by SSM-SVR24 values (≤42 vs. >42 kPa).

CONCLUSIONS

Portal hypertension, as evaluated by SSM, plays a significant role in liver carcinogenesis after DAA treatment. We proposed a new algorithm based on post-treatment values of LSM and SSM for the stratification of HCC risk after SVR achievement.

LAY SUMMARY

Spleen stiffness predicts the development of hepatocellular carcinoma after viral eradication, especially in patients with post-treatment liver stiffness values >10 kPa. An algorithm based on liver and spleen stiffness can stratify for the risk of liver cancer development and guide the surveillance strategies after treatment with direct-acting antivirals.

The role of liver and spleen elastography in advanced chronic liver disease

Portal hypertension is the main driver of complications in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). In the last decade, many non-invasive tests, such us liver and spleen elastography, have been proposed and validated for the identification of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and its complications, mainly hepatic decompensation and liver-related morbidity and mortality. Moreover, elastography accurately stratifies for the risk of HCC development, HCC recurrence and decompensation after liver surgery. Recent studies suggest a role of SSM in monitoring response to treatments and interventions in ACLD, such as viral eradication, non-selective beta-blockers and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement. However, one of the most indications to perform elastography in ACLD still remains the screening for esophageal varices. In fact, according to the Baveno VI consensus, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150,000/mm³ can safely identify patients at low risk of varices requiring treatment (VNT) and could therefore avoid invasive upper invasive endoscopy; LSM>20-25 kPa can accurately rule-in CSPH in patients with viral etiology. Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) is a direct surrogate of portal hypertension and has been demonstrated more accurate in predicting portal hypertension severity and VNT. A combined model including Baveno VI Criteria and SSM (≤46 kPa) can significantly increase the number of spared endoscopies (>40-50%), maintaining a low (<5%) of missed VNT.

Plasma interleukin-17 and alpha-fetoprotein combination effectively predicts imminent hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in liver cirrhotic patients

Background

Predicting imminent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in liver cirrhotic patients is an unmet medical need. We aimed to investigate circulatory biomarkers and their optimum combinations in a prospective study.

Methods

We investigated plasma interleukin 17 (IL-17) concentrations, quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), for the prediction of HCC in a large cohort of 404 HCC-naïve liver cirrhotic patients regularly followed after recruitment. Additionally, IL-17 in surgically resected tumor tissues were evaluated using immunohistochemistry staining.

Results

IL-17 was detected in HCC tissues. The IL-17 concentrations in the peripheral blood do not have correlation with an extensive list of 31 common demographic, metabolic and liver function variables in the cohort of liver cirrhotic patients. Furthermore, patients stratified by IL-17 and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) showed distinctive cumulative incidence of HCC. Imminent HCC, defined here as HCC occurrence within 1 year, can be predicted by IL-17 alone with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.762 (P = 0.002). An multivariate analysis showed that age, hepatitis C viral infection, AFP and IL-17 were four independent factors associated with imminent HCC (adjusted P = 0.03, 0.041, 0.024 and 0.008 respectively). An explicit risk score (R) combining the concentrations of two plasma biomarkers, AFP and IL-17, achieved a high AUC of 0.933 (95% confidence interval 0.893–0.972, P < 0.001) in predicting imminent HCC, with 100% sensitivity and 79.9% specificity at the optimum cutoff. The score is defined as: \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}} = (2.6914)*{\text{IL-17}} + (0.3909)*{\text{AFP}} - (0.80812875)*{\text{IL-17}}^{2} + (0.10288876884)*{\text{IL-17}}^{2} *{\text{AFP}}.$$\end{document}R=(2.6914)∗IL-17+(0.3909)∗AFP-(0.80812875)∗IL-172+(0.10288876884)∗IL-172∗AFP.

Conclusions

The circulatory IL-17 concentration is a predictor of subsequent HCC occurrence in liver cirrhotic patients. The combination of AFP and IL-17 is highly effective in predicting imminent HCC within 1 year.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01761-1.

How to Treat Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Elderly Patients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the primary tumour of the liver with the greatest incidence, particularly in the elderly. Additionally, improvements in the treatments for chronic liver diseases have increased the number of elderly patients who might be affected by HCC. Little evidence exists regarding HCC in old patients, and the elderly are still underrepresented and undertreated in clinical trials. In fact, this population represents a complex subgroup of patients who are hard to manage, especially due to the presence of multiple comorbidities. Therefore, the choice of treatment is mainly decided by the physician in the clinical practice, who often tend not to treat elderly patients in order to avoid the possibility of adverse events, which may alter their unstable equilibrium. In this context, the clarification of the optimal treatment strategy for elderly patients affected by HCC has become an urgent necessity. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the available data regarding the treatment of HCC in elderly patients, starting from the definition of "elderly" and the geriatric assessment and scales. We explain the possible treatment choices according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) scale and their feasibility in the elderly population.

Impact of liver-stiffness measurement on hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals: A systematic review and time-to-event meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are still at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after achieving sustained virologic response (SVR). Liver-stiffness measurement (LSM) on imaging has been investigated as a predictor of HCC occurrence.

OBJECTIVES

To provide systematic summary of the predictive value of LSM in predicting HCC occurrence in HCV patients treated with DAA.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search of the PubMed-MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was performed to identify studies that evaluated the predictive value of LSM in CHC patients treated with DAAs. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) comparing HCC occurrence between patients with positive and negative results on LSM was calculated for all studies and various subgroups. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were performed.

RESULTS

A review of 135 candidate articles identified eight eligible articles with a total of 3398patients for qualitative review and meta-analysis. The pooled HR for HCC occurrence determined by LSM was 3.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.63-7.19) with heterogeneity (I²  = 81.87%, P < 0.001), thus indicating that LSM might be helpful for predicting HCC occurrence. In subgroup analyses, pooled HRs were different according to the study design (2.29; [95% CI, 0.96-5.45] for retrospective studies; 4.61 [95% CI, 2.44-8.71] for prospective studies), study population (4.00 [95% CI, 2.00-7.99] for CHC; 2.64 [0.99-7.00] for CHC with liver cirrhosis) and LSM parameter (3.17 [95% CI, 1.35-7.41] for baseline LSM; 4.19 [95% CI, 1.89-9.29] for others). In multivariate meta-regression, study design was the only influencing factor for pooled HR for HCC occurrence (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent evidence demonstrated the predictive value of LSM for HCC occurrence in CHC patients treated with DAA. The significant influencing factor for risk of HCC occurrence indicated by LSM was study design.

Low incidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients with pretreatment liver stiffness measurements below 17.5 kilopascal who achieve SVR following DAAs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To evaluate the ability of pretreatment liver stiffness measurements (pLSM) to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), incident decompensation and all-cause mortality in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

METHODS

773 CHC patients with SVR after DAA treatment and no prior liver complications were identified retrospectively. Optimized cut-off of 17.5 kPa for incident HCC was selected by maximum Youden's index. Patients were grouped by pLSM: <10 kPa [reference], 10-17.4 kPa and ≥17.5 kPa. Primary outcomes were incident hepatocellular carcinoma and secondary outcomes were incident decompensated cirrhosis and all-cause mortality, analyzed using cox-regression.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 36 months and 43.5% (336) had cirrhosis (LSM>12.5 kPa). The median pLSM was 11.6 kPa (IQR 6.7-17.8, range 2.5-75) and pLSM of <10 kPa, 10-17.4 kPa and 17.5-75 kPa was seen in 41.5%, 32.2% and 26.3%. During a median follow-up time of 36 months, 11 (1.4%) developed HCC, 14 (1.5%) developed decompensated cirrhosis, and 38 (4.9%) patients died. A pLSM of 17.5 kPa identified patients with a high risk of HCC with a negative predictive value of 98.9% and incidence rate of HCC in the 17.5-75 kPa group of 1.40/100 person years compared to 0.14/100 person years and 0.12/100 person years in the 10-17.4 kPa and <10 kPa groups, p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment LSM predicts risk of HCC, decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients with SVR after DAA treatment. Patients with a pLSM <17.5 kPa and no other risk factors for chronic liver disease appear not to benefit from HCC surveillance for the first 3 years after treatment. Longer follow-up is needed to clarify if they can be safely excluded from post treatment HCC screening hereafter.

A Model Based on Noninvasive Markers Predicts Very Low Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk After Viral Response in Hepatitis C Virus-Advanced Fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained viral response (SVR) and need lifelong surveillance. Because HCC risk is not homogenous and may decrease with fibrosis regression, we aimed to identify patients with low HCC risk based on the prediction of noninvasive markers and its changes after SVR.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a multicenter cohort study, including patients with HCV and compensated advanced fibrosis that achieved SVR after direct antivirals. Clinical and transient elastography (TE) data were registered at baseline, 1 year, and 3 years after the end of treatment (EOT). All patients underwent liver ultrasound scan every 6 months. Patients with clinical evaluation 1 year after EOT were eligible. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed, and predictive models were constructed. HCC occurrence rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier. Nine hundred and ninety-three patients were eligible (56% male; 44% female; median age 62 years), 35 developed HCC (3.9%), and the median follow-up was 45 months (range 13-53). Baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR 1.040; 95% CI 1.017-1.064), serum albumin (HR 0.400; 95% CI 0.174-0.923), 1-year DeltaLSM (HR 0.993; 95% CI 0.987-0.998), and 1-year FIB-4 score (HR 1.095; 95% CI 1.046-1.146) were independent factors associated with HCC. The TE-based HCC risk model predicted 0% of HCC occurrence at 3 years in patients with score 0 (baseline LSM ≤ 17.3 kPa, albumin >4.2 g/dL, and 1-year DeltaLSM > 25.5%) versus 5.2% in patients with score 1-3 (Harrell's C 0.779; log-rank 0.002). An alternative model with FIB-4 similarly predicted HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of baseline and dynamic changes in noninvasive markers may help to identify patients with a very low risk of HCC development after SVR.

Disease Progression in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection Treated With Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about how a sustained virologic response (SVR) to treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) affects patient mortality and development of new liver-related events. We aimed to evaluate the incidence of disease progression in patients treated with DAAs.

METHODS

We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study of 1760 patients who received DAA treatment at 23 hospitals in Latin America, from May 1, 2016, through November 21, 2019. We excluded patients with a history of liver decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or solid-organ transplantation. Disease progression after initiation of DAA therapy included any of the following new events: liver decompensation, HCC, liver transplantation, or death. Evaluation of variables associated with the primary outcome was conducted using a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 26.2 months (interquartile range, 15.3-37.5 mo), the overall cumulative incidence of disease progression was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.1%), and after SVR assessment was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.7%). Baseline variables associated with disease progression were advanced liver fibrosis (hazard ratio [HR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6), clinically significant portal hypertension (HR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.8), and level of albumin less than 3.5 mg/dL (HR, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.3-7.6), adjusted for SVR achievement as a time covariable. Attaining an SVR reduced the risk of liver decompensation (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8; P = .016) and de novo HCC (HR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.8%; P = .02) in the overall cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with DAAs significantly reduces the risk of new liver-related complications and should be offered to all patients, regardless of disease stage. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03775798.

A nomogram based on liver stiffness predicts postoperative complications in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM), assessed by transient elastography (Fibroscan), has been demonstrated to predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients who undergo hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, other complications are also likely to be related to the underlying grade of liver fibrosis. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of postoperative complications and to build and develop a novel nomogram able to identify patients at risk of developing severe complications.

METHODS

Data from patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2006 and 2016 at 2 referral centres were retrospectively reviewed. All surgical complications were recorded and scored using the comprehensive complication index (CCI), ranging from 0 (uneventful course) to 100 (death). A CCI ≥26.2 was used as a threshold to define severe complications.

RESULTS

During the study period, 471 patients underwent hepatic resection for HCC. Among them, 50 patients (10.6%) had a CCI ≥26.2. Age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and LSM values, together with serum albumin, were independent predictors of high CCI. The nomogram built on these variables was internally validated and showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.751). A regression equation to predict the CCI was also established by multiple linear regression analysis: [LSM (kPa) × 0.254] + [age (years) × 0.118] + [MELD score (pt.) × 1.050] - [albumin (g/dl) × 2.395] - 3.639.

CONCLUSION

A novel nomogram, combining LSM values, age and liver function tests provided an excellent preoperative prediction of high CCI in patients with resectable HCC. This predictive model could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making.

LAY SUMMARY

Liver stiffness measurement is increasingly being used to assess the degree of liver fibrosis in patients with cirrhosis and/or chronic hepatitis. Using Fibroscan, we developed a novel nomogram to predict severe complications following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma, according to the new comprehensive complication index. This tool could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making.

Noninvasive Diagnostics for Portal Hypertension: A Comprehensive Review

Noninvasive diagnostics for portal hypertension include imaging and functional tests, as well as blood-based biomarkers, and capture different features of the portal hypertensive syndrome. Definitive conclusions regarding their clinical utility require assessment of their diagnostic value in specific clinical settings (i.e., diagnosing a particular hemodynamic condition within a well-defined target population). Several noninvasive methods are predictive of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥ 10 mm Hg; the threshold for complications of portal hypertension); however, only a minority of them have been evaluated in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (i.e., the target population). Importantly, most methods correlate only weakly with HVPG at high values (i.e., in patients with CSPH). Nevertheless, selected methods show promise for diagnosing HVPG ≥ 16 mm Hg (the cut-off for increased risks of hepatic decompensation and mortality) and monitoring HVPG changes in response to nonselective beta-blockers or etiological treatments. Finally, we review established and potential future clinical applications of noninvasive methods.

Non-invasive tests for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world and it is one of the main complications of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Even in the presence of a well-established follow-up protocol for cirrhotic patients, to date poor data are available on predictive markers for primary HCC occurrence in the setting of compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients (cACLD). The gold standard method to evaluate the prognosis of patients with cACLD, beyond liver fibrosis assessed with histology, is the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). An HVPG ≥10 mmHg has been related to an increased risk of HCC in cACLD patients. However, these methods are burdened by additional costs and risks for patients and are mostly available only in referral centers. In the last decade increasing research has focused on the evaluation of several, simple, non-invasive tests (NITs) as predictors of HCC development. We reviewed the currently available literature on biochemical and ultrasound-based scores developed for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension in predicting primary HCC. We found that the most reliable methods to assess HCC risk were the liver stiffness measurement, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index score and the fibrosis-4 index. Other promising NITs need further investigations and validation for different liver disease aetiologies.

Spleen stiffness measurement for assessing the response to β-blockers therapy for high-risk esophageal varices patients

BACKGROUND

Non-selective β-blocker (NSBB) therapy is the treatment of choice for primary prophylaxis of cirrhotic patients with high-bleeding risk esophageal varices (HRV). The hemodynamic response to NSBB is assessed by the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). Recently, liver and spleen stiffness measurements (LSM and SSM) were proposed as non-invasive surrogates of HVPG. We aimed to evaluate LSM and SSM changes for assessing hemodynamic response in these patients.

METHODS

Cirrhotic patients with HRV were prospectively enrolled and evaluated at our Department before starting NSBB and after 3 months. Correlation between changes (delta) of HVPG after NSBB treatment and those of LSM or SSM by transient elastography was performed.

RESULTS

From the initial 59 patients considered for the study, 20 were finally included in the analysis. Fifteen (15) patients reached hemodynamic response to NSBB according to HVPG. Changes in LSM did not correlate with changes in HVPG (r = 0.107, p value = 0.655), unlike changes in SSM (r = 0.784, p value < 0.0001). Delta SSM presented excellent accuracy in identifying HVPG responders (AUROC 0.973; 95% CI 0.912-1). The best cut-off for delta SSM to identify responders was -10% (sensitivity 100%, specificity 60%, NPV 100% and PPV 90%).

CONCLUSIONS

SSM could be a reliable non-invasive test for the assessment of hemodynamic response to NSBB therapy as primary prophylaxis for HRV. Similar to HVPG, SSM reduction ≥ 10% is able to assess hemodynamic response.

2020 Taiwan consensus statement on the management of hepatitis C: part (I) general population

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a major public health issue with high prevalence in Taiwan. Recently, the advent of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents, with higher efficacy, excellent safety profile, and truncated treatment duration, has revolutionized the paradigm of hepatitis C treatment and made HCV elimination possible. To provide timely guidance for optimal hepatitis C management, the Taiwan Association for the Study of the Liver (TASL) established an expert panel to publish a 2-part consensus statement on the management of hepatitis C in the DAA era. After comprehensive literature review and a consensus meeting, patient-oriented, genotype-guided recommendations on hepatitis C treatment for the general and special populations have been provided based on the latest indications and scientific evidence. In the first part of this consensus, we present the epidemiology and treatment situation of hepatitis C in Taiwan, the development of DAA, pre-treatment evaluation, post sustained virologic response (SVR) monitoring, and most importantly the treatment recommendations for the general population with compensated liver disease. The second part will focus on the treatment recommendations for the special populations.

Noninvasive Measurements Predict Liver Fibrosis Well in Hepatitis C Virus Patients After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Short-time usage of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) limited knowledge regarding histological outcomes and predictive values of noninvasive measurements in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) after sustained virologic response (SVR) with DAA.

AIMS

This study aimed to indicate histological changes and assess predictive value of noninvasive measurements for fibrosis in these patients.

METHODS

HCV patients who achieved SVR by DAA were identified. Pre- and post-SVR clinical and histological data were collected.

RESULTS

Of patients, 83% (33/40), 38% (15/40) and 83% (33/40) achieved inflammation improvement, fibrosis regression and histological improvement, respectively. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM), APRI, and FIB-4 could predict post-SVR fibrosis well without significant differences. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM, APRI, and FIB-4 were 0.78, 0.81, and 0.87 for post-SVR advanced fibrosis (≥ F4) and 0.86, 0.86, and 0.85 for post-SVR cirrhosis (≥ F5), respectively. Pre-SVR LSM, APRI, and FIB-4 values were significantly lower in patients with fibrosis regression (P = 0.003-0.012), while FIB-4 was significantly lower in patients with histological improvement (P = 0.012-0.033). Patients with higher pre-SVR Ishak scores tended to have bigger decline in APRI (P = 0.025) and FIB-4 (P = 0.024) after SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

DAA could improve liver inflammation and fibrosis of HCV patients in a short time after SVR. LSM, APRI, and FIB-4 predict fibrosis well even after SVR by DAA. Most of the cutoff values for advanced fibrosis (≥ F4) and cirrhosis (≥ F5) of these noninvasive measurements decreased significantly after SVR, maybe because of the inflammation improvement.

Non-invasive prediction of liver-related events in patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease after oral antivirals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is important to know which patients with hepatitis C are likely to develop liver-related complications after achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. We aimed to describe the incidence of liver-related events in a population of patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who achieved SVR and to identify non-invasive parameters that predict the occurrence of liver-related events.

METHODS

This 2-center prospective study included 572 patients with cACLD who had been treated with DAAs and had achieved SVR. Patients had liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥10 kPa at baseline and had never decompensated (Child-Pugh class A). Laboratory work-up and LSM were performed at baseline and at 1 year of follow-up.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 32 patients (5.6%) presented with a liver-related event. The incidence rate (IR) of portal hypertension-related decompensation was 0.34/100 patient-years. These patients all had baseline LSM >20 kPa, and LSM did not improve during follow-up in 4 out of 5 of them. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurred in 25 patients (IR 1.5/100 patient-years). Albumin levels at follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0.08; 95% CI 0.02-0.25) and LSM <10 kPa at follow-up (HR 0.33; 95% CI 0.11-0.96) were independently associated with the risk of HCC. Combining both predictors identified 2 groups with differing risk of HCC occurrence: those with LSM ≥20 kPa at follow-up or those with LSM between 10-20 kPa and albumin levels <4.4 g/dl were at the highest risk (IR ≥1.9/100 patient-years). Visual nomograms predicting HCC risk based on LSM and albumin at 1 year of follow-up were constructed.

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCV-related cACLD who have achieved SVR with DAAs, HCC is the most frequent liver-related event. Both albumin levels and LSM are useful for stratifying patients based on their risk of developing HCC during follow-up.

LAY SUMMARY

New oral antivirals can cure chronic hepatitis C infection, however patients with advanced chronic liver disease are still at risk of presenting with liver-related complications. The most frequent complication after oral antiviral therapy in asymptomatic patients with advanced chronic liver disease was liver cancer. The use of simple parameters such liver stiffness and albumin levels after treatment can help to identify patients at higher or lower risk of liver cancer.

Liver stiffness measurement at complete virological response in hepatoma prediction for HBV-related cirrhosis patient with potent antiviral agent

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is ameliorated with nucleos(t)ide agent (NA) therapy for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis patients. This study investigates whether liver stiffness (LS) measurement at complete virological response (CVR) was useful in predicting HCC development. Between July 2006 and August 2016, HBV-related cirrhosis patients with potent NA (entecavir/tenofovir) with the first LS measurement during CVR and with serial LS were enrolled. Patients developing HCC 6 months after potent NA or before the first LS measurement were excluded. Three hundred and seventy-one patients were enrolled. The median follow-up was 5.6 and 3.8 years from potent NA treatment and the first LS measurement respectively. Twenty-seven patients developed HCC. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-year cumulated incidences of HCC occurrence were 0%, 2.8%, 5.8% and 9%, respectively. In addition to age > 57 years, LS > =21.5 kPa (HR: 3.86, 95%CI: 1.67-8.94) was an independent factor associated with HCC occurrence in multivariate analysis. However, the magnitude of change in LS was not associated with HCC development. For the first LS in HCC prediction, the performance was 0.636. There were two to thirteen LS measurements during CVR. The change in LS was classified into four patterns stratified by the first and serial LS. Compared with those with serial LS < 21.5 kPa, patients with LS > =21.5 kPa tend to have higher HCC occurrence (P = .062). In summary, LS at CVR was an independent factor associated with HCC development for HBV-related cirrhosis patients with potent NA. However, LS was not satisfactory in the prediction performance of HCC development.

Current and forthcoming perspectives in linkage to care of hepatitis C virus infection: Assessment of an Italian focus group

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a significant public health problem and is one of the major causes of chronic liver disease worldwide. In recent years many new tools to facilitate widespread HCV screening and new therapeutic options with excellent efficacy and tolerability profiles and cost lowering policies have become available. To fully utilise these new tools, the link between local and specialist centres for the management of HCV infection must be reinforced. In order to GAIN further insight into these aspects, with a particular focus on the Italian scenario, a group of experts met to discuss relevant aspects and open issues on chronic HCV. As a summary of that meeting, the following aspects are here overviewed: (i) global situation of HCV; (ii) screening, diagnosis and indications for the treatment of HCV; (iii) the Italian situation of HCV referrals; (iv) 'hard to reach' patients; (v) treatment of HCV with extrahepatic manifestations; (vi) treatment of patients with advanced cirrhosis. It is the intention of the expert panel to further promote widespread screening and eradication policies that should be accompanied by greater interaction, by attempting to involve all healthcare providers in an organised process to facilitate linkage to care of patients with HCV infections.

Treatment with direct-acting antivirals for HCV decreases but does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Data from Europe and North America have been published regarding the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after treatment with direct antiviral agents (DAA). We proposed to evaluate cumulative incidence and associated risk factors for de novo HCC.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicentre cohort study from Latin America including 1400 F1-F4-treated patients with DAAs (F3-F4 n = 1017). Cox proportional regression models (hazard ratios, HR and 95% CI) were used to evaluate independent associated variables with HCC. Further adjustment with competing risk regression and propensity score matching was carried out.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 16 months (IQR 8.9-23.4 months) since DAAs initiation, overall cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.02 (CI 0.01; 0.03) at 12 months and 0.04 (CI 0.03; 0.06) at 24 months. Cumulative incidence of HCC in cirrhotic patients (n = 784) was 0.03 (CI 0.02-0.05) at 12 months and 0.06 (CI 0.04-0.08) at 24 months of follow-up. Failure to achieve SVR was independently associated with de novo HCC with a HR of 4.9 (CI 1.44; 17.32), after adjusting for diabetes mellitus, previous interferon non-responder, Child-Pugh and clinically significant portal hypertension. SVR presented an overall relative risk reduction for de novo HCC of 73% (CI 15%-91%), 17 patients were needed to be treated to prevent one case of de novo HCC in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving SVR with DAA regimens was associated with a significant risk reduction in HCC. However, this risk remained high in patients with advanced fibrosis, thus demanding continuous surveillance strategies in this population.

Branched-chain amino acids in liver diseases

Branched chain amino acids (BCAAs) are involved in various bioprocess such as protein metabolism, gene expression, insulin resistance and proliferation of hepatocytes. BCAAs have also been reported to suppress the growth of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells in vitro and to be required for immune cells to perform the function. In advanced cirrhotic patients, it has been clarified that serum concentrations of BCAA are decreased, whereas those of aromatic amino acids (AAAs) are increased. These alterations are thought to be the causes of hepatic encephalopathy (HE), sarcopenia and hepatocarcinogenesis and may be associated with the poor prognosis of patients with these conditions. Administration of BCAA-rich medicines has shown positive results in patients with cirrhosis.