Modeling the impact of interventions during an outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs in 2012-2013 in Athens, Greece

Testing and Treatment Interventions in Community Settings Key to Controlling a Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Outbreak Among People Who Inject Drugs in Glasgow: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

A human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak was identified among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow in 2015, with >150 diagnoses by the end of 2019. The outbreak response involved scaling up HIV testing and improving HIV treatment initiation and retention.

METHODS

We parameterized and calibrated a dynamic, deterministic model of HIV transmission among PWID in Glasgow to epidemiological data. We use this model to evaluate HIV testing and treatment interventions. We present results in terms of relative changes in HIV prevalence, incidence, and cases averted.

RESULTS

If the improvements in both testing and treatment had not occurred, we predict that HIV prevalence would have reached 17.8% (95% credible interval [CrI], 14.1%-22.6%) by the beginning of 2020, compared to 5.9% (95% CrI, 4.7%-7.4%) with the improvements. If the improvements had been made on detection of the outbreak in 2015, we predict that peak incidence would have been 26.2% (95% CrI, 8.8%-49.3%) lower and 62.7% (95% CrI, 43.6%-76.6%) of the outbreak cases could have been averted. The outbreak could have been avoided if the improvements had already been in place.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modeling suggests that the HIV testing and treatment interventions successfully brought the HIV outbreak in Glasgow under control by the beginning of 2020.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs after the HIV-outbreak in Athens, Greece: Evidence for a 'slow burn' outbreak

BACKGROUND

New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece, saw a significant increase in 2011 and a subsequent decline after 2013. Despite this, ongoing HIV-1 transmission persisted from 2014 to 2020 within this population. Our objective was to estimate the time of infection for PWID in Athens following the HIV-1 outbreak, explore the patterns of HIV-1 dispersal over time, and determine the duration from infection to diagnosis.

METHODS

Time from HIV-1 infection to diagnosis was estimated for 844 individuals infected within 4 PWID-specific clusters and for 8 PWID infected with sub-subtype A6 diagnosed during 2010-2019. Phylogeny reconstruction was performed using the maximum-likelihood method. HIV-1 infection dates were based on molecular clock calculations.

RESULTS

In total 86 of 92 (93.5%) sequences from PWID diagnosed during 2016-2019 were either related to the previously identified PWID-specific clusters (n = 81) or belonged to a new A6 cluster (n = 5). The median time between infection and diagnosis was 0.42 years during the outbreak period and 0.70 years during 2016-2019 (p < 0.001). The proportion of clustered sequences from PWID was very low at 5.3% during the pre-outbreak period (1998-2009), saw an increase to 41.7% one year before the outbreak in 2010, and consistently remained high during the whole period after 2011, spanning the post-outbreak period (2016-2019) with a range from 92.9% to 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial proportion of clustered infections (93.5%) during 2016-2019 implies a persistent 'slow burn' HIV outbreak among PWID in Athens, suggesting that the outbreak was not successfully eliminated. The consistently high proportion of clustered sequences since the onset of the outbreak suggests the persistence of ongoing HIV-1 transmission attributed to injection practices. Our findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions among PWID, considering the ongoing transmission rate and prolonged time from infection to diagnosis.

A new outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece

BACKGROUND

Multiple HIV outbreaks have been recorded among people who inject drugs (PWID) since 2010. During an intervention for PWID in 2019-2021 in Thessaloniki, Greece, an increasing number of HIV cases was documented. Here, we provide an analysis of this new outbreak.

METHODS

ALEXANDROS was a community-based program and participation included interviewing, rapid HIV/HCV tests, counselling and linkage to care. PWID were recruited through Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) in five sampling rounds. Crude and RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates were obtained. HIV incidence was estimated from data on 380 initially seronegative PWID with at least two tests. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess risk factors for HIV seroconversion.

RESULTS

In total, 1,101 PWID were recruited. At first participation, 53.7% were current PWID, 20.1% homeless, 20.3% on opioid substitution treatment and 4.8% had received syringes in the past 12 months. HIV prevalence (95% CI) was 7.0% (5.6-8.7%) and an increasing trend was observed over 2019-2021 (p = 0.002). Two-thirds of the cases (67.5%) were new diagnoses. HIV incidence was 7.0 new infections/100 person-years (95% CI:4.8-10.2). Homelessness in the past 12 months (HR:2.68; 95% CI:1.24-5.81) and receptive syringe sharing (HR:3.86; 95% CI:1.75-8.51) were independently associated with increased risk of seroconversion. By the end of the program, 67.3% of the newly diagnosed cases initiated antiretroviral treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A new HIV outbreak among PWID was documented in Greece during the COVID-19 pandemic with homelessness and syringe sharing being associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Peer-driven programs targeting the population of high-risk underserved PWID can be used to early identify emerging outbreaks and to improve linkage to HIV care.