Safer scoring? Cryptomarkets, social supply and drug market violence

Illuminating the dark web market of fraudulent identity documents and personal information: An international and Australian perspective

From the beginnings of Silk Road in 2011, anonymous online marketplaces have continued to grow despite the best efforts of law enforcement. While these ever-present marketplaces remain flooded with illicit drugs and related paraphernalia, the sale and distribution of fraudulent identity documents remains a persistent problem, with these items consistently appearing for sale on both the open and dark web. While fraudulent Australian documents are some of the most popular products for sale, there is still much that is unknown about the Australian criminal market and its place within anonymous online marketplaces. Given the success of previous research in understanding the illicit drug trade through examining these marketplaces, this work examines two markets to gain an understanding of where Australian document fraud sits within this digital ecosystem. Two anonymous online marketplaces were crawled across 2020 and 2021, White House Market (WHM), and Empire Market. This data was extracted and examined to identify trends within both the international online market and the online market specifically for Australian documents, both of which have been relatively underexplored in the online space. To help illuminate the features of the market, the types of documents for sale, supply and demand trends, and trafficking flows along with vendor-related trends (e.g. product diversification and presence across markets) were examined. Each market was examined individually and then, where possible, comparisons were drawn to gain a more holistic understanding of the online fraudulent document market, with a specific focus on Australian products. Results indicate that, while the fraudulent document portion of the market is small, it is diverse, with numerous different identity-related products for sale, the most common being driver's licences from the United States (U.S.) and Australia, with digital documents dominating the whole marketplace. Overall, the most popular U.S. products were those that could be used to facilitate identity fraud, with the most popular Australian products being driver's licences and ID packs, likely linked to the presence of the 100-point identity check system used in Australia. This study demonstrates that anonymous online marketplaces have thus far been under-utilised in the study of the fraudulent document market, and that to properly understand the illicit market for fraudulent documents and personal information both the online and physical sides of the market should be considered. This information, if properly utilised, can improve the current understanding of this persistent criminal environment, building on previous research and assisting policymakers in making informed decisions.

Social influence in the darknet market: The impact of product descriptions on cocaine sales

BACKGROUND

The rise of the darknet market, supported by technologies such as the Tor Browser and cryptocurrencies, has created a secure environment in which illicit transactions can occur. However, due to the lack of government oversight in this hidden online domain, darknet markets face significant challenges in upholding social order. Hence, this study explores the social dynamics that promote social order in a darknet market, focusing on the impact of item descriptions on sales. In particular, the study examines how text contained in product listings can influence sales and contribute to social order.

METHOD

To conduct this analysis, we examined 4160 cocaine listings on AlphaBay, which was active from December 2014 to July 2017 and is one of the largest darknet markets in history. Using generalised additive models (GAMs), we assessed the impact of various listing description features, including content and semantic structure, on cocaine sales.

RESULTS

The results showed that sales increased by 61.6 % when listings included delivery information in their description, compared to offers that did not. In addition, the standardised sentiment score (ranging 0,1) of the product description increased positively, and estimated sales increased by 260.5 %. We also found that international shipping reduced sales by 28.3 %. Finally, we found that listings stating the product origin increased sales for all continents except Asia.

CONCLUSION

The study sheds light on the characteristics of product advertising that facilitate social order within a darknet market. Listings that include delivery details in the description reduce uncertainty about a critical stage of the transaction process while using positive language increases trust. This study makes both an empirical and a theoretical contribution by demonstrating the influence of ad descriptions on sales and the intricate role of social influences in shaping market order.

Drug transactions and the dark web: Public perceptions of the locational setting of offenders and support for drug policy outcomes

BACKGROUND

Both legal and extra-legal factors influence judicial and non-judicial opinions about persons who use drugs. Yet, how the locational setting of drug transactions influences public perceptions of drug control policies remains understudied. In particular, the public's view of drug exchanges on the dark web could directly and indirectly influence drug policy, legal decision making, and spending decisions. The study's aim is to identify whether the location of a drug exchange, specifically the dark web, influences public preferences for drug policy and police resourcing.

METHODS

A sample (n = 1359) from the United States of America was recruited and participated in a discrete choice experiment. The participants compared and repeatedly chose across five iterations between two drug offender profiles with nine set features, such as the location of drug transactions, all with randomized levels. The resulting sample included a total of 13,590 contest pairs.

RESULTS

Averaging over the non-locational attributes, respondents indicated that, compared to the dark web, several locational settings for drug exchange (such as the street corner, social media, and an unknown location) needed fewer police resources and offenders were less deserving of longer punishments. No statistically significant difference was found for opinions about harm to communities, and offenders involved in drug exchanges on university campuses were considered more deserving of a substance abuse treatment program than offenders on the dark web.

CONCLUSION

There appears to be a preference for more punitive criminal justice policies for drug transactions occurring on the dark web relative to some other common settings. Such preferences may indicate a novelty effect driven by negative sentiment surrounding the dark web or a perceived deficit in the police's ability to deal with drug crimes on the dark web. These findings suggest that the public may prefer supply-side policing efforts over demand-side policies, which emphasizes harm reduction.

Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership?

Cryptomarkets, i.e., illicit online marketplaces, have gained considerable attention from the media, law enforcement agencies, and researchers. An increasing number of studies have revealed various aspects of these cryptomarkets; however, whether drugs play a major role for competing cryptomarkets to be the market leader, has not been addressed. Weekly sales and the number of listings for the major products on three leading cryptomarkets (Silk Road 2, Agora, and Evolution) were examined using Granger causality tests and interrupted time series analysis. Not only drugs trading on cryptomarkets played a pivotal role in the growth of each cryptomarket, but also a higher increase in drug supply than in competing marketplaces is crucial to become market leaders. The relative supply of drugs plays a larger role when leading marketplaces disappear. Law enforcement agencies should focus on monitoring marketplaces with a larger increase in drug supplies than on competing marketplaces.

Potential Influences of the Darknet on Illicit Drug Diffusion

Purpose of Review

Darknet-hosted drug markets (‘cryptomarkets’) are an established model of illicit drug distribution which makes use of specialised online hosting and payment systems to link buyers and sellers remotely. Cryptomarkets appear to professionalise, gentrify and integrate drug markets. Therefore, they can be hypothesised to have effects on drug availability by allowing purchases by people who use drugs (PWUD) outside of face-to-face networks that have typified drug distribution. They may attract new buyers and may change use patterns by offering a greater range of higher-potency drugs. This paper examines the research on cryptomarkets’ potential impacts on drug availability.

Recent Findings

1. Cryptomarkets tend to address established PWUD who mainly already have access to existing distribution systems. Their greatest impact may be on what is available and the quantities available, and not the overall ease of access.

2. Cryptomarkets may provide new data sources which can inform our understanding of drug markets.

3. Cryptomarkets may define PWUD as consumers and contribute to reshaping their identities around principles of self-directed, informed consumption.

4. In terms of size, cryptomarkets are currently smaller than other modes of digital drug distribution such as through social media and messaging apps and should be seen as a specialist subset of that genre.

5. Users of cryptomarkets often integrate drug-purchase and consumption repertoires across multiple sites, online and offline, and cryptomarkets can be one element.

Summary

The cryptomarkets are of interest partly because they alter the practical calculus around drug diffusion and partly because they contribute to the formation of digitally enabled drug use which emphasises a consumer relationship between buyer and seller.

Ordinary people, criminals, addicts and recreational users: Swedish court of law descriptions of persons sentenced for online drug purchases

Background: The aim of this study was to analyze how Swedish courts describe persons sentenced for purchasing illicit drugs online. Methods: Qualitative analysis of naturally occurring data through 201 sentences that included 248 individuals sentenced for having purchased drugs online between January 1 2010 and January 1 2020. Results: The analysis resulted in the construction of four ideal types regarding the described characteristics of the sentenced persons; the ordinary person, the recreational user, the addict and the criminal. The courts operate with a notable dichotomy between traditional drug markets and online drug markets, that can be understood in relation to descriptions of Bourdieusian capital forms, specifically street capital and digital capital. Conclusion: Descriptions relating to street capital were of larger interest to the courts compared to digital capital, although there were examples of when the courts argued that uses of digital capital should be viewed as an aggravating circumstance. The courts largely held a dichotomous view of online and offline drug markets that focus on street-based criminality, which may have implications for how emerging digital drug markets are responded to by drug law enforcement and judicial systems.

How Cannabis Users Obtain and Purchase Cannabis: A Comparison of Cannabis Users from European Countries with Different Cannabis Policies

Objective: This study examines the role of cannabis policy in how cannabis users obtain and purchase cannabis. Methods: A survey was conducted in the Dutch coffeeshops among current cannabis users (n = 1255) aged 18-40 from seven European countries with different cannabis policies. This study investigated whether acquisition methods and supply sources were associated with national cannabis policy, controlling for gender, age, and frequency of use. Results: Cross-national differences notwithstanding, cannabis was easily available to current cannabis users in Europe. Within and across countries, users acquired cannabis in various ways and buyers purchased it from various sources, representing a mixture of open, closed, and semi-open retail markets. Buying cannabis was the most common method of acquisition. Among participants who reported buying their cannabis (n = 929), buying from friends was the most common source of supply, followed by street dealers, home dealers, and delivery services. The vast majority of Dutch participants reported buying cannabis from coffeeshops. Contrariwise, French buyers were more likely to buy cannabis from street dealers and delivery services, and Greek buyers to buy it from home dealers and friends. Overall, the Internet played a marginal role in purchasing cannabis. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the significant role of social supply across Europe. Although cross-national differences were rather common in cannabis acquisition and supply, yet they were not unidirectionally linked with the punitiveness of national cannabis policy. Findings suggest a differentiated normalization of the cannabis retail market, with users often preferring to buy cannabis in a regulated or legal market.

How do high school seniors get marijuana? Prevalence and sociodemographic differences

INTRODUCTION

Efforts to understand how adolescents acquire marijuana will help to contextualize its use among youth. Little is known about ways of getting marijuana and how they differ between subgroups of adolescents. The present study sought to determine how adolescents get marijuana and if modes of access vary by sociodemographic characteristics.

METHOD

Data were from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study of 12th graders in the United States from 2012 to 2018 (N = 4262 students). Participants used marijuana in the past 12 months and were asked how they got marijuana. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to predict modes of getting marijuana based on sex, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, parental education, and survey year. Cross-tabulation analyses compared how recent frequent and non-frequent use related to ways of getting marijuana.

RESULTS

The most endorsed methods of getting marijuana were given for free by friends, bought from friends, and bought from a drug dealer/stranger. Differences by sociodemographic subgroup and recent frequent use emerged, including for riskier modes of obtainment such as buying from a drug dealer/stranger (for male students, urban students, and recent frequent users). Recent frequent users were more likely to endorse getting marijuana by nearly each method, except non-frequent users were more likely to be given marijuana for free by friends.

DISCUSSION

Understanding the prevalence of different modes of getting marijuana among adolescents and which subgroups are most susceptible to riskier means of getting marijuana will allow drug use prevention efforts to be tailored appropriately so as to maximize effectiveness.

Shifts in Drug Use Behavior Among Electronic Dance Music Partygoers in New York During COVID-19 Social Distancing

Background: Little is known about how COVID-19-related social distancing has affected illegal drug use. We surveyed electronic dance music (EDM) partygoers-a population known for high levels of drug use-to determine whether their drug use patterns had changed during state-mandated social distancing in New York. Methods: Individuals were recruited online and screened for eligibility throughout April and May 2020. We surveyed 128 eligible adults and queried, retrospectively, whether their drug use behavior had changed during COVID-19-related social distancing. Results: Most participants reporting past-three-month use reported decreased frequency of use during COVID-19-related social distancing. Specifically, 78.6% reduced frequency of use of cocaine, 71.1% reduced frequency of use of ecstasy/MDMA/Molly, and 68.0% reduced frequency of use of LSD. Although some participants reported increased frequency of use of cocaine (7.1%), ecstasy (7.9%), or LSD (12.0%), 35.0% reported increased frequency of cannabis use. Most (66.7%) of those reporting cocaine use reduced the amount used. The majority of those reporting use of cannabis, ecstasy, cocaine, and/or LSD reported that drug cost (80.0-84.0%) and drug quality (84.2-92.0%) did not change during social distancing. Having a college degree was associated with higher odds for decreasing frequency of cannabis use. Older participants (ages ≥23) were at lower odds for decreasing frequency of cocaine use, as were those earning >$500 per week, and participants who attended EDM events biweekly or more often were at higher odds for decreasing frequency of LSD use. Conclusions: Participants in this sample tended to reduce party drug use during COVID-19-related social distancing.

Availability of substances for use in personal vaporisers on three online cryptomarkets

BACKGROUND

Personal vaporisers are gaining popularity as an alternative route of administration for a range of substances. Online cryptomarkets are becoming increasingly popular among people who use substances due to their perceived anonymity, ease of use, and reduced risk of violence compared to traditional face-to-face dealers. We examined the diversity of substances marketed for use in a personal vaporiser on these marketplaces.

METHODS

Vaping related listings were extracted from three online cryptomarkets ('Agartha', 'Cryptonia', and 'Tochka') using The Onion Router browser. Data collection occurred between October and November 2019.

RESULTS

We identified 1929 listings from 201 unique sellers. The top product on Agartha, Cryptonia, and Tochka were vape cartridges prefilled with the e-liquid (70.4 %, 39.4 %, 52.3 % respectively). The most common substance in these products was cannabis oil (96.1 %, 82.1 %, 87.8 %), followed by synthetic cannabinoids (3.7 %, 9.7 %, 9.8 %) and psychedelic substances (0.2 %, 6.4 %, 1.2 %). Vendors were primarily from the USA. Many products offered worldwide shipping (96.3 %, 42.4 %, 51.2 %).

CONCLUSION

Vaping products listed on online cryptomarkets in 2019 primarily contained cannabis oils. Future studies should continue to examine cryptomarkets to identify emerging trends of substances that can be used in personal vaporisers.

Relevance of cryptomarkets, characteristics of purchasers and possibilities for survey research: experience from the European Web Survey on Drugs

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of cryptomarkets, characteristics of purchasers and possibilities for survey research by approaching users directly on cryptomarkets.

Design/methodology/approach

Cross-country comparison of the results from the European Web Survey on Drugs (EWSD) and summarizing lessons learned during the data collection was carried out.

Findings

Purchasers of drugs on cryptomarkets are still a rather small segment of all drug purchasers, and most people who use cryptomarkets also use other sources of supply to buy drugs. The percentage of people using cryptomarkets is unevenly distributed across countries and substances. Purchasers on cryptomarkets in most countries are more likely to be men and more likely, on average, to use more substances. Other characteristics such as age or place of residence do not show a consistent pattern across countries. Recruitment of respondents on cryptomarkets calls for specific techniques and procedures. Specific attention should be paid to build trust and guarantee credibility and anonymity.

Research limitations/implications

Interpretation of the quantitative results is limited by nonprobabilistic sampling and different recruitment strategies in different countries.

Practical implications

Users of cryptomarkets show some specific characteristics, providing a challenge for research and prevention agencies to keep up with digital technology. Increasing knowledge about characteristics of users of cryptomarkets may help to create adequate responses for harm reduction measures in different supply settings. However, collecting self-reported data from users on cryptomarkets is limited owing to significant privacy concerns and requires specific skills and strategies.

Originality/value

The EWSD provides a rare opportunity for detailed analyses of consumption patterns and characteristics of active drug users across several European countries. Furthermore, experiences of a new recruitment strategy are discussed.

Pricing of illicit drugs on darknet markets: a conceptual exploration

Purpose

Trading illicit drugs on cryptomarkets differs in many ways from material retail markets. This paper aims to contribute to existing studies on pricing by studying the relationship between price changes in relation to changes in nominal value of the cryptocurrency. To this, the authors qualitatively study product descriptions and images to expand the knowledge on price formation.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analysed 15 samples based on visual and textual scrapes from two major drug markets – for Dream Market between January 2014 and July 2015 and for Tochka between January 2015 and July 2015. This longitudinal study relates changes in process to variations in the Bitcoin exchange rate and selling strategies. The analysis of the marketing of drugs online also addressed the development of the vendor profile and product offers.

Findings

Product prices change in relation to variations in the Bitcoin exchange rate. This points to the application of mechanisms for automatic price adaptations on the market level. Real prices of the drug offers constantly increase. The authors assert that there is a bidirectional relationship. Vendors structure price and discounts to encourage feedback. And feedback in combination with signals of commitment and authenticity inform pricing. Product descriptions are an important feature in the successful marketization of goods, whereas product images are predominantly used as an aspect of recognisability and feature of the vendor’s identity.

Research limitations/implications

Findings suggest that there is great potential for further qualitative research into the relationship between the online and offline identity of drug vendors, as well as price setting when entering the market and subsequent changes for offered products.

Practical implications

Findings also suggest that further investigation into the constitution and management of vendor’s identity on the cryptomarkets would allow a better understanding of vendors and their interactions on cryptomarkets.

Social implications

A better understanding of drug trading on cryptomarkets helps to more effectively address potentials for harm in the online drug trade. Also targetting crime would benefit from a better understanding of vendor idenities and pricing.

Originality/value

The findings represent a valuable contribution to existing knowledge on drug trading on cryptomarkets, particularly in view of pricing and vending strategies.

Sources of drug acquisition among females and males in the European Web Survey on Drugs

BACKGROUND

Social networks determine the availability of drugs, which in turn affects use patterns. Yet, there is some limited evidence that as frequency of drug use increases, people who use drugs increasingly utilize drug dealers. Further, females more often report receiving drugs for free. Studies on these two phenomena are limited by the substances they examine and the countries in which they have been conducted, and they have not been considered together. We examine whether gender differences in sources is moderated by increased frequency of use across four different substances in a web survey of sixteen European countries.

METHODS

The European Web Survey on Drugs was collected from 2016-2018 among the national partners of the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Individuals who use drugs in sixteen European countries completed an online survey. For herbal cannabis, cannabis resin, cocaine, and MDMA, we examine drug acquisition sources by gender and frequency of use. Sources include through dealers and sharing or free, as well as growing and online markets for cannabis. We model each source with logistic regression with chained multiple imputation and a country fixed-effect and clustered standard errors.

RESULTS

Across all substances, females who use drugs at low frequencies had significantly lower probabilities than males in using dealers; however, females were equally likely to use dealers when use is frequent. The probability of acquiring drugs for free was higher for females except among those who use most frequently, where the difference became non-significant except for herbal cannabis.

CONCLUSIONS

Females and males use dealers to acquire illicit drugs at similar rates when use is more frequent. Except for highest frequency use, females are typically more likely than males to acquire drugs for free. Examinations of supply should consider these gendered differences in acquisition.

The Dark Web and cannabis use in the United States: Evidence from a big data research design

BACKGROUND

Cannabis is one of the most commonly sold drugs on cryptomarkets. Because of the anonymity-granting functions of Tor, no study has traced the within-country effect of the Dark Web on cannabis consumption patterns. This article uses a big data research design to examine the association between revealed interest in the Dark Web and self-reported cannabis use within US states from 2011 when Silk Road launched to 2015 when Operation Onymous shuttered nine markets.

METHODS

This study uses mixed effects ordinary least squared regressions to analyze U.S. state/year panel data, using robust standard errors to correct for heteroscedasticity. Marginal effect plots illustrate substantive effects. The dataset consists of state-level variables drawn from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), the American Community Survey (ACS), the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the Correlates of State Policy Project, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics Justice Expenditure and Employment Extracts. Data for the Dark Web interest measure are drawn from Google Trends. The proxy for Dark Web interest is an index of eight Dark Web related search queries.

RESULTS

The regression analysis indicates that Dark Web interest in US states positively correlates with cannabis consumption rates overall and among older adults (26+), but not youth (12-17) or younger adults (18-25). Additionally, Dark Web interest is positively associated with more frequent cannabis usage rates (i.e. use in the past month, excluding first time use) both overall and among older adults, but not among youth or younger adults. Dark Web interest does not correlate with casual use (i.e. use in the last year, excluding use in the past month) for any age bracket. Interacting Dark Web interest with state-level legalization regimes indicates that the association between Dark Web interest and cannabis consumption in the past year is no different in medically legalized states and amplified in states with recreational legalization. Lastly, the Dark Web interest term does not correlate with first time cannabis either overall or for any age category.

CONCLUSIONS

Interest in the Dark Web is associated with increased cannabis use in U.S. states from 2011-2015, but the effect is concentrated in states with more frequent cannabis users, older users, and in states with recreational legalization of cannabis.

An evidence synthesis of strategies, enablers and barriers for keeping secrets online regarding the procurement and supply of illicit drugs

This systematic review attempts to understand how people keep secrets online, and in particular how people use the internet when engaging in covert behaviours and activities regarding the procurement and supply of illicit drugs. With the Internet and social media being part of everyday life for most people in western and non-western countries, there are ever-growing opportunities for individuals to engage in covert behaviours and activities online that may be considered illegal or unethical. A search strategy using Medical Subject Headings terms and relevant key words was developed. A comprehensive literature search of published and unpublished studies in electronic databases was conducted. Additional studies were identified from reference lists of previous studies and (systematic) reviews that had similar objectives as this search, and were included if they fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Two researchers independently screened abstracts and full-texts for study eligibility and evaluated the quality of included studies. Disagreements were resolved by a consensus procedure. The systematic review includes 33 qualitative studies and one cross-sectional study, published between 2006 and 2018. Five covert behaviours were identified: the use of communication channels; anonymity; visibility reduction; limited posts in public; following forum rules and recommendations. The same technologies that provide individuals with easy access to information, such as social networking sites and forums, digital devices, digital tools and services, also increase the prevalence of inaccurate information, loss of privacy, identity theft and disinhibited communication. This review takes a rigorous interdisciplinary approach to synthesising knowledge on the strategies adopted by people in keeping secrets online. Whilst the focus is on the procurement and supply of illicit drugs, this knowledge is transferrable to a range of contexts where people keep secrets online. It has particular significance for those who design online/social media applications, and for law enforcement and security agencies.

Using the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) broken-links approach to understand vulnerabilities to disruption in a darknet market

Darknet markets provide an anonymous, online platform for users to trade illicit drugs, fraudulent identity data, and other commodities. Although law enforcement agencies have been successful in seising many markets, the Darknet is an agile and dynamic environment and market activities often persist and emerge in a new form. Given this constantly changing environment, new ways of disrupting darknet markets are required. This study used Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) to analyse market activity and understand vulnerabilities to disruption. This involved using the EAST broken-links approach to assess the effects of compromising the transmission of information between tasks and between agents. The analysis identified critical vulnerabilities in the system, which included information involved in registering, depositing funds, communicating listing details to buyers, and communicating dispute resolution messages. This study indicates that systems ergonomics methods-in particular, EAST-can provide insight into system vulnerabilities that might be targeted for disruption. Practitioner summary This study provides a conceptualisation of the processes, people, structures, and information involved in the buying and selling of goods on a darknet market. Law enforcement agencies may use broken-links analyses to systematically consider the effects of their interventions.

Nonmedical prescription psychiatric drug use and the darknet: A cryptomarket analysis

Background

Nonmedical prescription psychiatric drug use (NMPDU) is an increasing global health problem, with recent concern focusing on darknet cryptomarkets as sources of procurement. There is a shortage of evidence regarding comparative worldwide NMPDU trends, due in part to data collection difficulties. This problem is particularly marked for non-opioid drugs, particularly those psychiatric drugs which act on the central nervous system (CNS) and have high misuse potential and are associated with high levels of dependency and fatal overdose. This paper therefore has two goals: 1) to report on the kinds of psychiatric prescription drugs available on cryptomarkets, and 2) to use this data to uncover temporal and geographical trends in sales of these products, potentially informing policy regarding NMPDU more generally.

Method

Digital trace data collected from 31 cryptomarkets in operation between September 2013 and July 2016 was analysed by country of origin descriptively and for trends in the sales for 7 psychiatric drug groupings, based on their main indication or intended use in psychiatric practice.

Results

Sedatives (such as diazepam and alprazolam) and CNS stimulants (mainly Adderall, modafinil and methylphenidate) had the greatest share of sales, but usage and trends varied by location. The UK has high and rising levels of sedative sales, whilst the USA has the greatest stimulant sales and increasing sedative rates. Sales of drugs used in the treatment of opioid dependency are also substantial in the USA. The picture is less clear in mainland Europe with high sales levels reported in unexpected Central and Northern European countries. There is evidence of a move towards the more potent sedative alprazolam – already implicated as a source of problematic NMPDU in the USA – in Australia and the UK. Sales of drugs such as antidepressants, antipsychotics, mood stabilisers and antidementia drugs – all drugs with limited abuse potential – were negligible, indicating minimal levels of online cryptomarket procurement for self-medicating mental health problems.

Conclusion

Predominantly, psychiatric drugs with potent sedative, stimulant or euphoriant effects are sold on cryptomarkets and this varies by country. With some caveats regarding the limitations of cryptomarket digital trace data taken into account, the study of trends of these products sold online over time may offer a novel and increasingly important window onto wider drug purchasing habits.

This place is like the jungle: discussions about psychoactive substances on a cryptomarket

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse dynamics amongst members to better understand in what terms and to what extent marketplace forums can be seen as new forms of harm reduction.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a qualitative analysis focused on conversations about psychoactive substances on the forum community of AlphaBay Market. A sample consists of 100 online threads. The data, collected in July 2016, were analysed by applying the grounded theory approach with the support of Atlas.ti.

Findings

Conversations in the marketplace forum focus mostly on the purchase. Concerns and disputes are voiced in a significant proportion of them, and interactions are affected by a climate of distrust where stigmatisation processes can emerge between users of different drug categories. This casts a certain amount of doubt on the thesis that marketplace forums – like online forums – are new forms of harm reduction and peer-led communities.

Research limitations/implications

The study focuses on only one marketplace forum. Other such forums should be analysed to corroborate its findings.

Practical implications

Harm reduction interventions in the online environment should take different form according to the forum type, and take the differences and boundaries that separate users of different substances into account.

Originality/value

Thanks to its infrequently used qualitative approach, the study provides a more thorough understanding of the relationships on marketplace forums.

Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect on the trade in opioids through online illicit markets ("cryptomarkets") of the US Drug Enforcement Administration's ruling in 2014 to reschedule hydrocodone combination products.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis.

SETTING

31 of the world's largest cryptomarkets operating from October 2013 to July 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The proportion of total transactions, advertised and active listings for prescription opioids, prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, and illicit opioids, and the composition of the prescription opioid market between the US and elsewhere.

RESULTS

The sale of prescription opioids through US cryptomarkets increased after the schedule change, with no statistically significant changes in sales of prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, or illicit opioids. In July 2016 sales of opioids through US cryptomarkets represented 13.7% of all drug sales (95% confidence interval 11.5% to 16.0%) compared with a modelled estimate of 6.7% of all sales (3.7% to 9.6%) had the new schedule not been introduced. This corresponds to a 4 percentage point yearly increase in the amount of trade that prescription opioids represent in the US market, set against no corresponding changes for comparable products or for prescription opioids sold outside the US. This change was first observed for sales, and later observed for product availability. There was also a change in the composition of the prescription opioid market: fentanyl was the least purchased product during July to September 2014, then the second most frequently purchased by July 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

The scheduling change in hydrocodone combination products coincided with a statistically significant, sustained increase in illicit trading of opioids through online US cryptomarkets. These changes were not observed for other drug groups or in other countries. A subsequent move was observed towards the purchase of more potent forms of prescription opioids, particularly oxycodone and fentanyl.

'Nice people doing shady things': Drugs and the morality of exchange in the darknet cryptomarkets

BACKGROUND

An ethnographic analysis of drug-centred cryptomarket community and exchange, this article explores the embedded values around drug distribution and consumption within this setting. Drawing on our interviews with cryptomarket users, we analyze the ways in which users claim the cryptomarket as a space of morality, empathy, trust, reciprocity, knowledge transfer, harm reduction and self-limitation. The anthropological concept of the morality of exchange is central to our theoretical approach.

METHODS

Between December 2014 and July 2017, nine interviews were undertaken with users of drug cryptomarkets. These were conducted in person, using Skype video calling, and using the encrypted 'self-erasing' chat app Wickr. The researchers also used overt non-participant observation (NPO) within the cryptomarket forum. This two-pronged approach - interviews and spending time within the community via NPO - enabled a thick description style of ethnographic analysis.

RESULTS

Our research reveals online drug markets less as perfect markets (working to rules of supply and demand) and more as constructive communities of interest that perform and negotiate drug use and supply. We found that participation within these interest communities had practical impact such as changing the type of drug that users consume and the ways in which they participate in street drug supply. Significantly, these values and actions mediate the interface between online action and 'meatspace' (the offline world) and reinforce that the motivations and processes of internet activity are just as 'real' as offline action.

CONCLUSION

We redefine the illicit drug focused cryptomarket as a place of exchange, mediation and reciprocity. Real-time knowledge transfer with the aim of harm reduction is one example of the impact of cryptomarket interaction. We caution that this is not a space of kinship and affinity: it is not without its scams, hackers and threats. It is, however, much more than a 'drug marketplace' and to understand how users themselves conceptualise this space is fruitful for any understanding of cryptomarkets. Cryptomarket exchange is a form of social action that is not restricted to its economic value for participants.

Forensic drug intelligence and the rise of cryptomarkets. Part II: Combination of data from the physical and virtual markets

Technology provides new ways to access customers and suppliers while enhancing the security of off-line criminal activity. Since the first cryptomarket, Silk Road, in 2011, cryptomarkets have transformed the traditional drug sale by facilitating the creation of a global network of vendors and buyers. Due to the fragmented nature of traces that result from illegal activities, combining the results of concurrent processes based on traces of different nature should provide supplementary benefit to understand the drug market. This article compares the data of the Australian virtual market (in particular data extracted from cryptomarkets) to the data related to traditional market descriptors, namely national seizures and arrests, prevalence data, shipping countries of seized post shipments as well as outcomes of specific surveys targeting users' behaviour online. Results revealed the domestic nature of the online illicit drug trade in Australia which is dominated by amphetamine-type substances (ATS), in particular methylamphetamine and cannabis. These illicit drugs were also the most seized drugs on the physical market. This article shows that the combination of different information offers a broader perspective of the illicit drug market in Australia and thus provides stronger arguments for policy makers. It also highlights the links between the virtual and physical markets.

Will growth in cryptomarket drug buying increase the harms of illicit drugs?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Cryptomarkets-on-line, anonymous market-places for illicit goods and services that specialize mainly in drugs-account for a small but rapidly growing share of the illicit drug market in many countries. Policy responses so far are based generally on the assumption that their rise will only increase drug harms. In this contribution for debate, we question this assumption.

METHODS

We provide a narrative review of the emerging literature connected to drug cryptomarkets. We use MacCoun & Reuter's formula to understand the effect of population-level increases in use on total harm as depending on the level of harm associated with each unit of use. We then consider the potential for cryptomarkets to increase or decrease the harms and benefits related to each unit of drug use, with specific attention to the quality of drugs sold and the non-drug-related harms and benefits for customers.

RESULTS

It is likely that cryptomarkets will increase both the amount and the range of substances that are sold. However, we argue that the effects on harms will depend upon whether cryptomarkets also increase the quality and safety of products that are sold, provide harm-reducing information to consumers and reduce transactional conflict involved in drug purchasing.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an emerging and rapidly growing evidence base connected to the macro and micro harms and benefits of cryptomarkets for drug users. Future researchers should use appropriately matched comparative designs to establish more firmly the differential harms and benefits of sourcing drugs both on- and off-line. While it is unlikely that the on-line drug trade can be eradicated completely, cryptomarkets will respond to regulation and enforcement in ways that have complex, and sometimes unanticipated, effects on both harms and benefits.

Instantly Hooked? Freebies and Samples of Opioids, Cannabis, MDMA, and Other Drugs in an Illicit E-Commerce Market

Do drug dealers entice nonusers with free samples? Police, the popular press, and social media users say so, but crime researchers have found little support for this theory and argue instead that sample distribution is an unsound strategy for illegal market business. But what about in digital drug markets, where operational logics are based on sophisticated anonymization technology and reputation systems? The author collected data from a large e-commerce website for drugs over 305 days in 2014 and 2015 and documents that (a) drug dealers give away samples of all major substance categories and (b) sample distribution increases vendor sales for prescription drugs and opioid-based painkillers. To explore possible explanations of these findings, the author collected data from the market’s online forum and analyzed 175 discussions (2,218 posts) about samples. Among the findings is that samples are preferably given to reputable review writers, or “drug critics.”

An island apart? Risks and prices in the Australian cryptomarket drug trade

BACKGROUND

Australia has a reputation as an anomaly with regard to cryptomarket drug trading, with seemingly disproportionately high levels of activity given its relatively small size, high prices and anecdotal accounts of it being a destination where many foreign-based vendors will not sell. This paper aims to investigate these claims from a risk and prices perspective.

METHODS

By analysing data for over 60,000 drug products available for purchase from eight cryptomarkets in January 2016 this work builds a descriptive picture of the Australian online market in comparison to the rest of the world, before moving onto analyse the prices of drugs available to Australian consumers, both online and though conventional drug supply routes.

RESULTS

Results show that the Australian online illicit drugs market is of considerable size, internally isolated and with methamphetamine sales being particularly large by comparison to other countries. Australian cryptomarket vendors sell drugs at significantly higher prices than those listed by their foreign counterparts. Online prices are however broadly comparable to street prices, with the exception of methamphetamine where prices appear to be much lower online.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that the perceived stringency of Australian border protection inadvertently increases the competitiveness and local market share of domestic cryptomarket vendors via a consumer side 'risk tariff', challenging the traditionally vendor-oriented drugs risk and prices framework.

Forensic drug intelligence and the rise of cryptomarkets. Part I: Studying the Australian virtual market

Analysing and understanding cryptomarkets is essential to become proactive in the fight against the illicit drug trade. Such a research seeks to combine a diversity of indicators related to the virtual (darknet markets) and physical (the traditional "offline" market) aspects of the illicit drug trade to provide information on the distribution and consumption as well as to assess similarities/differences between the virtual and physical markets. This study analysed data that had previously been collected on cryptomarkets from December 2013 to March 2015. In this article, the data was extracted from two marketplaces, Evolution and Silk Road 2, and analysed to evaluate the illicit drug trade of the Australian virtual market (e.g. information about the supply and demand, trafficking flows, prices of illicit drugs and market share) and highlight its specificities. The results revealed the domestic nature of the virtual Australian illicit drug trade (i.e. Australian sellers essentially ship their products to local customers). This may explain the coherence between supply and demand. Particularly, the virtual Australian illicit drug trade is dominated by amphetamine-type substances (ATS), mainly methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), and cannabis. Australia, as a shipping country, accounts for half of the methamphetamine offered and purchased on Silk Road 2. Moreover, it was observed that the online price fixed by Australian sellers for the considered illicit drugs is higher than for any other shipping countries, which is in line with previous studies. Understanding the virtual and physical drug market necessitates the integration and fusion of different perspectives to capture the dynamic nature of drug trafficking, monitor its evolution and finally improve our understanding of the phenomenon so policy makers can make informed decisions.

Seller's reputation and capacity on the illicit drug markets: 11-month study on the Finnish version of the Silk Road

AIMS

This 11-month study analyzed illicit drug sales on the anonymous Tor network, with a focus on investigating whether a seller's reputation and capacity increased daily drug sales.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The data were gathered from Silkkitie, the Finnish version of the Silk Road, by web crawling the site on a daily basis from (November 2014 to September 2015). The data include information on sellers (n=260) and products (n=3823).

MEASUREMENTS

The measurements include the sellers' reputation, the sale amounts (in euros), the number of available products and the types of drugs sold. The sellers' capacity was measured using their full sales potential (in euros). Fixed-effects regression models were used to estimate the effects of sellers' reputation and capacity; these models were adjusted for the types of drugs sold.

FINDINGS

Overall, illicit drug sales totalled over 2 million euros during the study, but many products were not sold at all, and sellers were active for only a short time on average (mean=62.8days). Among the products sold, stimulants were most widely purchased, followed by cannabis, MDMA, and psychedelics. A seller's reputation and capacity were both associated with drug sales.

CONCLUSION

The Tor network has enabled a transformation in drug sales. Due to the network's anonymity, the seller's reputation and capacity both have an impact on sales.

Silicon to syringe: Cryptomarkets and disruptive innovation in opioid supply chains

Cryptomarkets offer insight into the evolving interplay between online black markets and cartel-based distribution. The types and forms of heroin, fentanyl, and prescription drugs show wide diversification. In this commentary we describe changes in the conceptualizations, technologies and structures of drug supply chains in the 21st Century, with special attention to the role of cryptomarkets as tools, contexts, and drivers of innovation in public health research.

Moving on From Representativeness: Testing the Utility of the Global Drug Survey

A decline in response rates in traditional household surveys, combined with increased internet coverage and decreased research budgets, has resulted in increased attractiveness of web survey research designs based on purposive and voluntary opt-in sampling strategies. In the study of hidden or stigmatised behaviours, such as cannabis use, web survey methods are increasingly common. However, opt-in web surveys are often heavily criticised due to their lack of sampling frame and unknown representativeness. In this article, we outline the current state of the debate about the relevance of pursuing representativeness, the state of probability sampling methods, and the utility of non-probability, web survey methods especially for accessing hidden or minority populations. Our article has two aims: (1) to present a comprehensive description of the methodology we use at Global Drug Survey (GDS), an annual cross-sectional web survey and (2) to compare the age and sex distributions of cannabis users who voluntarily completed (a) a household survey or (b) a large web-based purposive survey (GDS), across three countries: Australia, the United States, and Switzerland. We find that within each set of country comparisons, the demographic distributions among recent cannabis users are broadly similar, demonstrating that the age and sex distributions of those who volunteer to be surveyed are not vastly different between these non-probability and probability methods. We conclude that opt-in web surveys of hard-to-reach populations are an efficient way of gaining in-depth understanding of stigmatised behaviours and are appropriate, as long as they are not used to estimate drug use prevalence of the general population.

New psychoactive substances (NPS) on cryptomarket fora: An exploratory study of characteristics of forum activity between NPS buyers and vendors

BACKGROUND

The continual diversification of new psychoactive substances (NPS) circumventing legislation creates a public health and law enforcement challenge, and one particularly challenged by availability on Hidden Web cryptomarkets.

METHODS

This is the first study of its kind which aimed to explore and characterise cryptomarket forum members' views and perspectives on NPS vendors and products within the context of Hidden Web community dynamics. An internal site search was conducted on two cryptomarkets popular with NPS vendors and hosting fora; Alphabay and Valhalla, using the search terms of 40 popular NPS in the seven categories of stimulant/cathinone; GABA activating; hallucinogen, dissociative, cannabinoid, opioid and other/unspecified/uncategorised NPS. 852 identified threads relating to the discussion of these NPS were generated. Following exclusion of duplicates, 138 threads remained. The Empirical Phenomenological Psychological method of data analysis was applied. Four themes and 32 categories emerged.

RESULTS

120 vendors selling NPS were visible on Alphabay, and 21 on Valhalla. Themes were 'NPS Cryptomarkets and Crypto-community interest in NPS'; 'Motives for NPS use'; 'Indigenous Crypto Community Harm Reduction'; and 'Cryptomarket Characteristics underpinning NPS trafficking', with two higher levels of abstraction centring on 'NPS vendor reputation' and 'NPS transactioning for personal use'. NPS cryptomarket characteristics centred on generation of trust, honesty and excellent service. Users appeared well informed, with harm reduction and vendor information exchange central to NPS market dynamics. GABA activating substances appeared most popular in terms of buyer interest on cryptomarkets. Interest in sourcing 'old favorite' stimulant and dissociative NPS was evident, alongside the sequential and concurrent poly use of NPS, and use of NPS with illicit drugs such as MDMA.

CONCLUSION

Continued monitoring of new trends in NPS within Surface Web and cryptomarkets are warranted. A particular focus on the rising market in prescribed benzodiazepine and Z-hypnotic drugs should be included.