Estimating HIV and HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs in 5 Ukrainian cities using stratification-based respondent driven and random sampling

Integrated biobehavioral surveillance among people who inject drugs in Ukraine, 2007-2020

BACKGROUND

Repeated integrated biobehavioral surveys (IBBS) have been implemented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine to monitor the trends in key epidemiologic and programmatic indicators.

METHODS

The study analyzed seven PWID IBBS rounds from 2007 to 2020 in seven Ukrainian cities. Participants were recruited using respondent-driven sampling, tested for HIV and anti-HCV antibodies, and completed a structured questionnaire. Composite weights (based on individual sampling probability and population size) were applied to generate point estimates and confidence intervals for HIV and HCV prevalence, injection risk behaviors, prevention service coverage, and HIV treatment cascade. Multi-level regression assessed temporal trends in these indicators in 2007-2020.

RESULTS

The samples consisted of 1587 participants in 2007, 1905 in 2008/9, 3066 in 2011, 2846 in 2013, 2699 in 2015, 2798 in 2017, and 3651 in the 2020 rounds. HIV prevalence decreased from 27% to 19% overall, and among PWID younger than 25 from 10.5% to 5.5%. Anti-HCV prevalence increased from 50% to 73% overall but decreased from 58% to 27% in the younger subgroup. Past-30-days injection risk behaviors consistently decreased, reaching a minimum of 38% for any risk in 2020. HIV treatment cascade indicators and coverage with opioid agonist treatment substantially improved in the last three rounds. Harm reduction services coverage fluctuated, declining from 52% to 33% in the last three rounds.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates the potential of repeated IBBS for monitoring the HIV epidemic and program coverage. We confirmed a sustained decline in overall HIV and HCV transmission, likely driven by reduced risky injection practices among PWID. The impact of harm reduction services requires further study. HIV status awareness and treatment coverage among PWID markedly increased, reaching the national average, possibly indicating the success of case-finding and linkage-to-care interventions. The upcoming IBBS round in Ukraine will also assess the impact of the war on service provision, risk behavior, and HIV transmission among PWID.

A mixed methods exploration of injection drug use risk behaviors and place-based norms in Ukraine

INTRODUCTION

Despite global reductions in HIV incidence and significant investment in local harm reduction services, Ukraine continues to experience high HIV and HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID). Place-based factors and social norms affect drug use-related risk factors, but research has paid little attention to the relationship between drug use practices and place in Ukraine, including how these factors may contribute to or protect against HIV/HCV risk.

METHODS

This project used a sequential mixed methods design. Between March and August 2018, we interviewed 30 PWID in Dnipro, Ukraine. Participants completed a single in-depth interview in which they described where and with whom they lived; how they generated income; and where, when, how, and with whom they purchased and used drugs. Between May 2019 and March 2020, we recruited 150 PWID in Dnipro to complete a survey that was designed based on interview findings and consisted of three components: an activity space inventory, an egocentric social network inventory, and an HIV risk behavior assessment.

RESULTS

Both interview and survey respondents reported consistent use of pharmacies to acquire syringes and nearly universal use of new syringes when injecting. Interview participants reflected that while syringe sharing was previously considered a "common practice," PWID now viewed it as infrequent and unacceptable. However, interview respondents enumerated the contexts in which needle and syringe reuse occurred, including purchasing drugs directly from a dealer and chipping in with other PWID to prepare drugs bought through a stash.

CONCLUSION

Participants described relatively easy access to new needles and syringes through pharmacies and expressed strong social sanctioning against reusing needles or syringes. However, equipment sharing behaviors and norms persisted in certain contexts, creating an opportunity for further harm reduction campaigns that incorporate changing norms in these situations to "close the gap" and further reduce HIV and other infections among PWID.

Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Ukraine

INTRODUCTION

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID.

METHODS

A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID.

RESULTS

With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP).

CONCLUSIONS

NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.

Tracking SARS-COV-2 variants using Nanopore sequencing in Ukraine in 2021

The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), informing evidence-based public health decision making. Ukraine has experienced four waves of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) between spring 2020 and spring 2022. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing limited the potential application of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for public health response in the country. Herein, we report local sequencing of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July-December 2021 using Oxford Nanopore technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-CoV-2 genomes, our data suggest that the third wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (June-December 2021) was dominated by the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC). Our phylogeographic analysis revealed that in summer 2021 Delta VOC was introduced into Ukraine from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. The wide geographic range of Delta introductions coincides with increased volume of travel to Ukraine particularly from locations outside of Europe in summer 2021. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.

Tracking SARS-COV-2 Variants Using Nanopore Sequencing in Ukraine in Summer 2021

Since spring 2020, Ukraine has experienced at least two COVID-19 waves and has just entered a third wave in autumn 2021. The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of SARS-CoV-2 circulation patterns worldwide, thus informing evidence-based public health decision making, including implementation of travel restrictions and vaccine rollout strategies. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing in Ukraine and other Lower and Middle-Income countries limit opportunities for similar analyses. Herein, we report local sequencing of 24 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July 2021 using Oxford Nanopore MinION technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-COV-2 genomes sequenced mostly abroad, our data suggest that the second wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (February-April 2021) was dominated by the Alpha variant of concern (VOC), while the beginning of the third wave has been dominated by the Delta VOC. Furthermore, our phylogeographic analysis revealed that the Delta variant was introduced into Ukraine in summer 2021 from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily-scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.

Modelling the intervention effect of opioid agonist treatment on multiple mortality outcomes in people who inject drugs: a three-setting analysis

BACKGROUND

Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) reduces many of the harms associated with opioid dependence. We use mathematical modelling to comprehensively evaluate the overall health benefits of OAT in people who inject drugs in Perry County (KY, USA), Kyiv (Ukraine), and Tehran (Iran).

METHODS

We developed a dynamic model of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission, incarceration, and mortality through overdose, injury, suicide, disease-related and other causes. The model was calibrated to site-specific data using Bayesian methods. We evaluated preventable drug-related deaths (deaths due to HIV, HCV, overdose, suicide, or injury) averted over 2020-40 for four scenarios, added incrementally, compared with a scenario without OAT: existing OAT coverage (setting-dependent; community 4-11%; prison 0-40%); scaling up community OAT to 40% coverage; increasing average OAT duration from 4-14 months to 2 years; and scaling up prison-based OAT.

OUTCOMES

Drug-related harms contributed differentially to mortality across settings: overdose contributed 27-47% (range of median projections) of preventable drug-related deaths over 2020-40, suicide 6-17%, injury 3-17%, HIV 0-59%, and HCV 2-18%. Existing OAT coverage in Tehran (31%) could have a substantial effect, averting 13% of preventable drug-related deaths, but will have negligible effect (averting <2% of preventable drug-related deaths) in Kyiv and Perry County due to low OAT coverage (<4%). Scaling up community OAT to 40% could avert 12-24% of preventable drug-related deaths, including 13-22% of overdose deaths, with greater effect in settings with significant HIV mortality (Tehran and Kyiv). Improving OAT retention and providing prison-based OAT would have a significant additional effect, averting 27-51% of preventable drug-related deaths.

INTERPRETATION

OAT can substantially reduce drug-related harms, particularly in settings with HIV epidemics in people who inject drugs. Maximising these effects requires research and investment into achieving higher coverage and provision and longer retention of OAT in prisons and the community.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Has resourcing of non-governmental harm-reduction organizations in Ukraine improved HIV prevention and treatment outcomes for people who inject drugs? Findings from multiple bio-behavioural surveys

INTRODUCTION

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C (HCV). Since the turn of the century, various organizations have funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Ukraine to provide PWID with needles and syringes, condoms, HIV and HCV testing, and improve linkage to opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and HIV treatment. We investigated whether contact with these NGOs was associated with improved HIV prevention and treatment outcomes among PWID.

METHODS

Five rounds of respondent-driven sampled integrated bio-behavioural survey data (2009 [N = 3962], 2011 [N = 9069], 2013 [N = 9502], 2015 [N = 9405], and 2017 [N = 10076]) among PWID in Ukraine (including HIV/HCV testing and questionnaires) were analysed using mixed-effect logistic regression models (mixed-effects: city, year). These regression models assessed associations between being an NGO client and various behavioural, OAT, HIV testing and HIV treatment outcomes, adjusting for demographic characteristics (age, gender, lifetime imprisonment, registration in a drug abuse clinic, education level). We also assessed associations between being an NGO client and being HIV positive or HCV positive, likewise adjusting for demographic characteristics (as above).

RESULTS

NGO clients were more likely to have received HIV testing ever (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.37, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 4.97 to 5.80) or in the last year (aOR 3.37, 95% CI: 3.20 to 3.54), to have used condoms at last sexual intercourse (aOR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.44) and sterile needles at last injection (aOR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.56), to be currently (aOR 4.19, 95% CI: 3.48 to 5.05) or ever (aOR 2.52, 95% CI: 2.32 to 2.74) on OAT, and to have received syringes (aOR 109.89, 95% CI: 99.26 to 121.66) or condoms (aOR 54.39, 95% CI: 50.17 to 58.96) in the last year. PWID who were HIV positive (aOR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.48) or HCV positive (aOR 1.57, 95% CI: 1.49 to 1.65) were more likely to have contact with NGOs, with HIV positive PWID in contact with NGOs being more likely to be registered at AIDS centres (aOR 2.34, 95% CI: 1.88 to 2.92) and to be on antiretroviral therapy (aOR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Contact with PWID targeted NGOs in Ukraine is associated with consistently better preventive, HIV testing and HIV treatment outcomes, suggesting a beneficial impact of harm reduction NGO programming.

Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

As HIV incidence and mortality continue to increase in eastern Europe and central Asia, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), it is crucial to effectively scale-up opioid agonist therapy (OAT), such as methadone or buprenorphine maintenance therapy, to optimise HIV outcomes. With low OAT coverage among PWID, we did an optimisation assessment using current OAT procurement and allocation, then modelled the effect of increased OAT scale-up on HIV incidence and mortality for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine.

METHODS

We developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.

FINDINGS

Under a status-quo scenario (OAT coverage of 2·7% among PWID), the number of new HIV infections among PWID in Ukraine over the next 10 years was projected to increase to 58 820 (95% CI 47 968-65 535), with striking regional differences. With optimum allocation of OAT without additional increases in procurement, OAT coverage could increase from 2·7% to 3·3% by increasing OAT doses to ensure higher retention levels. OAT scale-up to 10% and 20% over 10 years would, respectively, prevent 4368 (95% CI 3134-5243) and 10 864 (7787-13 038) new HIV infections and reduce deaths by 7096 (95% CI 5078-9160) and 17 863 (12 828-23 062), relative to the status quo. OAT expansion to 20% in five regions of Ukraine with the highest HIV burden would account for 56% of new HIV infections and 49% of deaths prevented over 10 years.

INTERPRETATION

To optimise HIV prevention and treatment goals in Ukraine, OAT must be substantially scaled up in all regions. Increased medication procurement is needed, combined with optimisation of OAT dosing. Restricting OAT scale-up to some regions of Ukraine could benefit many PWID, but the regions most affected are not necessarily those with the highest HIV burden.

FUNDING

National Institute on Drug Abuse.