Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients after Initiation of a New Biologic Agent: Trajectories of Disease Activity in a Large Multinational Cohort Study

Oral glucocorticoid use in patients with rheumatoid arthritis initiating TNF-inhibitors, tocilizumab or abatacept: Results from the international TOCERRA and PANABA observational collaborative studies

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare the use of oral glucocorticoids with three classes of bDMARDs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

We included patients from 13 observational registries treated with a TNF-inhibitor, abatacept or tocilizumab and with available information on the use of oral glucocorticoids. The main outcome was oral glucocorticoid withdrawal. A McNemar test was used to analyse the change in the use of glucocorticoids after 1 year. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regressions, adjusted for patient, treatment, and disease characteristics, were used to evaluate glucocorticoid discontinuation in patients with glucocorticoids at baseline. Because of heterogeneity, analyses were done by registers and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 12,334 participants treated with TNF-inhibitors, 2100 with tocilizumab and 3229 with abatacept were included. At one-year, oral glucocorticoid use decreased in all treatment groups (odds ratio for stopping vs. starting of 2.19 [95% CI 1.58; 3.04] for TNF-inhibitors, 2.46 [1.39; 4.35] for tocilizumab; 1.73 [1.25; 2.21] for abatacept). Median time to glucocorticoid withdrawal was ≈2 years or more in most countries, with a gradual decrease over time. Compared to TNF-inhibitors, crude hazard ratios of glucocorticoid discontinuation were 0.65[0.48-0.87] for abatacept, and 1.04 [0.76-1.43] for tocilizumab, and adjusted hazard ratios were 1.1 [0.83-1.47] for abatacept, and 1.30 [0.96-1.78] for tocilizumab.

CONCLUSION

After initiation of a bDMARD, glucocorticoid use decreased similarly in all treatment groups. However, glucocorticoid withdrawal was much slower than advocated by current international guidelines. More effort should be devoted to glucocorticoid tapering when low disease activity is achieved.

Distinct long-term disease activity trajectories differentiate early on treatment with etanercept in both rheumatoid arthritis and spondylarthritis patients: a prospective cohort study

To characterize disease activity trajectories and compare long-term drug retention between rheumatoid (RA) and spondylarthritis (SpA) patients initiating tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) treatment (etanercept). Prospective observational study of RA, axial (AxSpA) and peripheral SpA (PerSpA) patients initiating etanercept during 2004-2020. Kaplan-Meier plots were used for drug retention comparisons and multivariable Cox regression models for predictors of discontinuation. Long-term disease activity trajectories were identified by latent class growth models using DAS28-ESR or ASDAS-CRP as outcome for RA and AxSpA respectively. We assessed 711 patients (450 RA, 178 AxSpA and 83 PerSpA) with a median (IQR) follow-up of 12 (5-32) months. At 5 years, 22%, 30% and 21% of RA, AxSpA and PerSpA patients, respectively, remained on therapy. Etanercept discontinuation was independent of the diagnosis and was predicted by gender and obesity in both RA and SpA groups. Four disease activity (DA) trajectories were identified from 6th month of treatment in both RA and AxSpA. RA patients in remission-low DA groups (33.7%) were younger, had shorter disease duration, fewer comorbidities and lower baseline disease activity compared to moderate (40.6%) & high DA (25.7%) groups. In AxSpA 74% were in inactive-low DA and they were more often males, non-obese and had lower number of comorbidities compared to higher ASDAS-CRP trajectories. In RA and AxSpA patients, disease activity trajectories revealed heterogeneity of TNFi treatment responses and prognosis. Male gender, lower baseline disease activity and fewer comorbidities, characterize a favourable outcome in terms of disease burden accrual and TNFi survival.

Longitudinal Fecal Calprotectin Profiles Characterize Disease Course Heterogeneity in Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The progressive nature of Crohn's disease is highly variable and hard to predict. In addition, symptoms correlate poorly with mucosal inflammation. There is therefore an urgent need to better characterize the heterogeneity of disease trajectories in Crohn's disease by utilizing objective markers of inflammation. We aimed to better understand this heterogeneity by clustering Crohn's disease patients with similar longitudinal fecal calprotectin profiles.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study at the Edinburgh IBD Unit, a tertiary referral center, and used latent class mixed models to cluster Crohn's disease subjects using fecal calprotectin observed within 5 years of diagnosis. Information criteria, alluvial plots, and cluster trajectories were used to decide the optimal number of clusters. Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and analysis of variance were used to test for associations with variables commonly assessed at diagnosis.

RESULTS

Our study cohort comprised 356 patients with newly diagnosed Crohn's disease and 2856 fecal calprotectin measurements taken within 5 years of diagnosis (median 7 per subject). Four distinct clusters were identified by characteristic calprotectin profiles: a cluster with consistently high fecal calprotectin and 3 clusters characterized by different downward longitudinal trends. Cluster membership was significantly associated with smoking (P = .015), upper gastrointestinal involvement (P < .001), and early biologic therapy (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis demonstrates a novel approach to characterizing the heterogeneity of Crohn's disease by using fecal calprotectin. The group profiles do not simply reflect different treatment regimens and do not mirror classical disease progression endpoints.

Rheumatoid arthritis study of the Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR): nationwide presentation and worldwide stance

To depict the spectrum of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Egypt in relation to other universal studies to provide broad-based characteristics to this particular population. This work included 10,364 adult RA patients from 26 specialized Egyptian rheumatology centers representing 22 major cities all over the country. The demographic and clinical features as well as therapeutic data were assessed. The mean age of the patients was 44.8 ± 11.7 years, disease duration 6.4 ± 6 years, and age at onset 38.4 ± 11.6 years; 209 (2%) were juvenile-onset. They were 8750 females and 1614 males (F:M 5.4:1). 8% were diabetic and 11.5% hypertensive. Their disease activity score (DAS28) was 4.4 ± 1.4 and health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) 0.95 ± 0.64. The rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) were positive in 73.7% and 66.7% respectively. Methotrexate was the most used treatment (78%) followed by hydroxychloroquine (73.7%) and steroids (71.3%). Biologic therapy was received by 11.6% with a significantly higher frequency by males vs females (15.7% vs 10.9%, p = 0.001). The least age at onset, F:M, RF and anti-CCP positivity were present in Upper Egypt (p < 0.0001), while the highest DAS28 was reported in Canal cities and Sinai (p < 0.0001). The HAQ was significantly increased in Upper Egypt with the least disability in Canal cities and Sinai (p = 0.001). Biologic therapy intake was higher in Lower Egypt followed by the Capital (p < 0.0001). The spectrum of RA phenotype in Egypt is variable across the country with an increasing shift in the F:M ratio. The age at onset was lower than in other countries.

Patient Disease Trajectories in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Treated with Baricitinib 4-mg in Four Phase 3 Clinical Studies

INTRODUCTION

We sought to identify and compare treatment response groups based on individual patient responses (rather than group mean response) over time on the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), in patients treated with baricitinib 4-mg in 4 phase 3 studies.

METHODS

Trajectory subgroups were identified within each study using growth mixture modeling. Following grouping, baseline characteristics and disease measures were summarized and compared.

RESULTS

In each study, three response trajectories were identified. In the three studies of patients naïve to biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) patients had, on average, high disease activity, as measured by CDAI. In these studies, a group of rapid responders (65-71% of patients) had the lowest baseline CDAI scores and achieved mean CDAI ≤ 10 by week 16. Gradual responders (10-17%) had higher baseline CDAI, but generally achieved low disease activity (CDAI ≤ 10) by week 24. A group of partial responders (18-22%) had higher baseline CDAI and did not achieve mean CDAI ≤ 10. In bDMARD-experienced patients, the subgroups were rapid responders, who achieved mean CDAI ≤ 10 (42% of patients); partial responders, with mean CDAI decrease of ~ 15 points from baseline (42% of patients); and limited responders (15% of patients). Changes in modified total sharp score (mTSS; assessed only in biologic-naïve patients) were below the smallest detectable difference at 24/52 weeks for > 90% of patients in each group, excepting partial responders in RA-BEGIN (≥ 75% no detectable change).

CONCLUSION

In patients receiving baricitinib 4-mg, lower baseline CDAI was generally associated with rapid response, while higher baseline CDAI scores were generally seen for patients who either reached treatment targets more gradually, or who had a partial or limited response. Maintenance of response was observed with continued baricitinib treatment in all response groups and generally included maintenance of mTSS.

Disease activity trajectories for early and established rheumatoid arthritis: Real-world data from a rheumatoid arthritis cohort

Objectives

Disease activity status described at fixed time points does not accurately reflect disease course in chronic and relapsing diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We described longitudinal disease activity trajectories in early and established RA.

Methods

Patients with available 28-Joint Disease Activity Score-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) and Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) over two years were included. Using latent growth curve modelling (LCGM), subgroups of patients following distinct patterns were identified.

Results

1920 patients were included with 34.4% in early RA (< 2 years’ disease duration). Three subgroups were identified using DAS28-ESR in early RA: 1) low disease activity to remission (LDA-REM: 19.1%); 2) moderate disease to remission (MD-REM: 54%); 3) high to moderate disease (HD-MD: 26.9%). The HD-MD group had a significantly higher number of comorbidities, biologic and steroid use and lower post-secondary education. Using CDAI, we identified seven subgroups with only 1.9% remission in early RA. In established RA, seven subgroups were identified using either DAS28-ESR or CDAI. Using DAS28-ESR 27.8% with HD showed improvement in disease status (14.2% HD-REM, 10.3% HD-LDA and 3.3% HD-MD) while using CDAI 17.9% showed improvement.

Conclusion

Disease course was different in early and established RA. Only 14.2% of established RA reached DAS28-ESR remission compared to 73.1% of early RA. Using CDAI only 1.9% of early RA and none of the established RA achieved remission, likely reflecting the impact of the patient global assessment on this score. Findings also illustrate the impact of sociodemographic characteristics and early treatment on disease course.

Accounting for missing data caused by drug cessation in observational comparative effectiveness research: a simulation study

Objectives

To assess the performance of statistical methods used to compare the effectiveness between drugs in an observational setting in the presence of attrition.

Methods

In this simulation study, we compared the estimations of low disease activity (LDA) at 1 year produced by complete case analysis (CC), last observation carried forward (LOCF), LUNDEX, non-responder imputation (NRI), inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputations of the outcome. All methods were adjusted for confounders. The reasons to stop the treatments were included in the multiple imputation method (confounder-adjusted response rate with attrition correction, CARRAC) and were either included (IPW2) or not (IPW1) in the IPW method. A realistic simulation data set was generated from a real-world data collection. The amount of missing data caused by attrition and its dependence on the ‘true’ value of the data missing were varied to assess the robustness of each method to these changes.

Results

LUNDEX and NRI strongly underestimated the absolute LDA difference between two treatments, and their estimates were highly sensitive to the amount of attrition. IPW1 and CC overestimated the absolute LDA difference between the two treatments and the overestimation increased with increasing attrition or when missingness depended on disease activity at 1 year. IPW2 and CARRAC produced unbiased estimations, but IPW2 had a greater sensitivity to the missing pattern of data and the amount of attrition than CARRAC.

Conclusions

Only multiple imputation and IPW2, which considered both confounding and treatment cessation reasons, produced accurate comparative effectiveness estimates.

Real-Life Retention Rates and Reasons for Switching of Biological DMARDs in Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic Arthritis, and Ankylosing Spondylitis

Aims: To determine real-life biologic/targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (b/tsDMARD) retention rates in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and ankylosing spondylitis (AS), explore reasons for switching and to compare results to previously published data.

Methods: Time-to-event analysis for mean treatment duration (estimated as the Restricted Mean Survival Time), b/tsDMARD failure, and b/tsDMARDs switching was performed for 230 patients (n = 147 RA, 46 PsA, 37 AS) who commenced their first b/tsDMARD between 2008 and 2018. Patients were managed in a dedicated “biologics” clinic in a tertiary hospital; the choice of b/tsDMARD was clinician driven based on medical factors and patient preferences. The effect of covariates on switching risk was analysed by a conditional risk-set Cox proportional-hazards model. Treatment retention data was compared to a historical analysis (2002–2008).

Results: The proportions remaining on treatment (retention) were similar, throughout follow-up, for the first, second and third b/tsDMARDs across all patients (p = 0.46). When compared to RA patients, the risk of b/tsDMARD failure was halved in PsA patients [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.50], but no different in AS patients (HR = 1.0). The respective restricted mean (95%CI) treatment durations, estimated at 5 years of follow-up, were 3.1 (2.9, 3.4), 4.1 (3.7, 4.6), and 3.3 (2.8, 3.9) years, for RA, PsA, and AS, respectively. Age, gender, disease duration, smoking status and the use of concomitant csDMARDS were not associated with the risk of bDMARD failure. The most common reasons for switching in the first and subsequent years were secondary (n = 62) and primary (n = 35) failure. Comparison with historical data indicated no substantive differences in switching of the first biologic for RA and PsA.

Conclusion: Similar retention rates of the second and third compared to the first b/tsDMARD in RA, PsA, and AS support a strategy of differential b/tsDMARDs use informed by patient presentation. Despite greater availability of b/tsDMARDs with differing mechanisms of action, retention rates of the first b/tsDMARD remain similar to previous years.

Factors associated with drug survival on first biologic therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

Lack of sufficient head-to-head trials comparing biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), makes the choice of the first bDMARD a matter of rheumatologist's preference. Longer drug survival on the first bDMARD usually correlates with early remission. We aimed to identify factors associated with longer drug survival. We conducted a population-based retrospective longitudinal cohort study. We identified RA patients using the relevant International Classification of Disease 9th codes. "True" RA patients were defined as patients fulfilling, additionally, at least one of the following: receiving conventional DMARDs (cDMARDs), being positive for rheumatoid factor or anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide, or being diagnosed by a rheumatologist. We compared drug survival times and identified factors associated with longer drug survival. We identified 4268 true RA patients between the years of 2000-2017. 820 patients (19.2%) received at least one bDMARD. The most commonly prescribed bDMARDs were etanercept (352, 42.9%), adalimumab (143, 17.4%), infliximab (142, 17.3%) and tocilizumab (58, 7.1%). Infliximab was associated with the longest drug survival (47.1 months ± 46.3) while golimumab was associated with the shortest drug survival (14.9 months ± 15.1). Male gender [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-0.86, p = 0.001], concurrent conventional DMARDs use (HR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.68 - 0.98, p = .031) and initiating bDMARD therapy in earlier calendric years (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.10 -1.18, p = 0.0001) were associated with longer drug survival. Male gender, concomitant cDMARDs and initiating biologic therapy at earlier calendric years are associated with longer drug survival.

Identifying Trajectories of Radiographic Spinal Disease in Ankylosing Spondylitis: A 15-year follow up study of the PSOAS Cohort

OBJECTIVES

Little is known with certainty about the natural history of spinal disease progression in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS). Our objective was to discover if there were distinct patterns of change in vertebral involvement over time and to study associated clinical factors.

METHODS

Data were analyzed from the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Ankylosing Spondylitis (PSOAS) observational cohort. All patients met modified New York Criteria for AS and had ≥2 sets of radiographs scored by modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS) by two independent readers between 2002-2017. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to classify patients into distinct groups of longitudinal mSASSS considering sociodemographic and clinical covariables. The optimal trajectory model and number of trajectories was selected using Nagin's Bayesian information criterion (BIC).

RESULTS

A total of 561 patients with 1618 radiographs was analyzed. The optimum number of trajectory groups identified was four (BIC -4062). These groups were subsequently categorized as: non-progressors (204 patients), late-progressors (147 patients), early-progressors (107 patients) and rapid-progressors (103 patients). Baseline predictors associated with higher spinal disease burden groups included: baseline mSASSS, male gender, longer disease duration, elevated C-reactive protein and smoking history. In addition, time-varying anti-TNF use per year was associated with decreased mSASSS progression only in the rapid-progressor group.

CONCLUSIONS

GBTM identified 4 distinct patterns of spinal disease progression in the PSOAS cohort. Male gender, longer disease duration, elevated C-reactive protein and smoking were associated with higher spinal disease groups. Independent confirmation in other AS cohorts is needed to confirm these radiographic patterns.

Distinct patterns of disease activity over time in patients with active SLE revealed using latent class trajectory models

BACKGROUND

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a heterogeneous systemic autoimmune condition for which there are limited licensed therapies. Clinical trial design is challenging in SLE due at least in part to imperfect outcome measures. Improved understanding of how disease activity changes over time could inform future trial design. The aim of this study was to determine whether distinct trajectories of disease activity over time occur in patients with active SLE within a clinical trial setting and to identify factors associated with these trajectories.

METHODS

Latent class trajectory models were fitted to a clinical trial dataset of a monoclonal antibody targeting CD22 (Epratuzumab) in patients with active SLE using the numerical BILAG-2004 score (nBILAG). The baseline characteristics of patients in each class and changes in prednisolone over time were identified. Exploratory PK-PD modelling was used to examine cumulative drug exposure in relation to latent class membership.

RESULTS

Five trajectories of disease activity were identified, with 3 principal classes: non-responders (NR), slow responders (SR) and rapid-responders (RR). In both the SR and RR groups, significant changes in disease activity were evident within the first 90 days of the trial. The SR and RR patients had significantly higher baseline disease activity, exposure to epratuzumab and activity in specific BILAG domains, whilst NR had lower steroid use at baseline and less change in steroid dose early in the trial.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal nBILAG scores reveal different trajectories of disease activity and may offer advantages over fixed endpoints. Corticosteroid use however remains an important confounder in lupus trials and can influence early response. Changes in disease activity and steroid dose early in the trial were associated with the overall disease activity trajectory, supporting the feasibility of performing adaptive trial designs in SLE.

Identification of Distinct Disease Activity Trajectories in Methotrexate-Naive Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving Tofacitinib Over Twenty-Four Months

Objective

Tofacitinib is an oral JAK inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). To better understand tofacitinib treatment responses, we used group‐based trajectory modeling to investigate distinct disease activity trajectories and associated baseline variables in patients with active RA.

Methods

This post hoc analysis used data from a phase III study of methotrexate‐naive patients receiving tofacitinib 5 mg twice daily. Changes in the 4‐variable Disease Activity Score in 28 joints, using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28‐ESR) from baseline to month 24 were used in group‐based trajectory modeling to identify distinct disease activity trajectories. Patient and disease characteristics, changes in radiographic progression and patient‐reported outcomes, and safety up to month 24 were compared among trajectory groups.

Results

From 346 methotrexate‐naive patients, 5 disease trajectory groups, defined by DAS28‐ESR scores, were identified, which progressed from high disease activity (HDA) to remission (group 1, n = 28), to low disease activity (LDA) rapidly (group 2, n = 107), to moderate disease activity (group 3, n = 98), to LDA gradually (group 4, n = 46), or remained in HDA (group 5, n = 67), at month 24. At baseline, groups 1 and 2 generally had lower disease activity and more favorable patient‐reported outcomes, compared with other groups. Improvements in radiographic progression and patient‐reported outcomes over 24 months were generally consistent with DAS28‐ESR–predicted disease activity trajectories. Adverse event rates were generally comparable across groups.

Conclusion

Distinct phenotypic subgroups identified heterogeneity in patients with RA normally analyzed as a single population. Trajectory modeling may enable separation of clinically meaningful subsets of patients with RA, and may help optimize treatment outcomes.

Efficacy and safety of tofacitinib versus baricitinib in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in real clinical practice: analyses with propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting

Objectives

The differences of efficacy between each Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors have not been clarified in the patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in clinical practice. Here, we compared the efficacy between tofacitinib (TOFA) and baricitinib (BARI) in clinical practice.

Methods

The efficacy of TOFA (n=156) in patients with RA was compared with BARI (n=138). Selection bias was reduced to a minimum using propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). The Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) trajectory for patients who started TOFA or BARI was analysed using growth mixture modelling (GMM).

Results

No significant difference was observed in patient characteristics between the TOFA and BARI groups in after adjustment by propensity score-based IPTW. The BARI group had a significantly higher rate of CDAI remission at week 24 after the introduction of JAK inhibitors than the TOFA group. The treatment-resistant group defined by GMM, comprising patients who did not achieve low disease activity at week 24, was more likely to include those who had received many biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) before the introduction of JAK inhibitors and those who received TOFA. Among patients with RA who received TOFA, those who had received ≥4 bDMARDs before the introduction of TOFA were more likely to be classified into the treatment-resistant group.

Conclusions

BARI showed a similar safety profile and better clinical outcome when compared with TOFA after reduction to a minimum of selection bias. However, these were observed in a small population. Accordingly, further investigation is required in an accurately powered head-to-head trial.

Latent Class Trajectory Modeling of 2-Component Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints Identifies Multiple Rheumatoid Arthritis Phenotypes of Response to Biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether using a reweighted disease activity score that better reflects joint synovitis, i.e., the 2-component Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) (based on swollen joint count and C-reactive protein level), produces more clinically relevant treatment outcome trajectories compared to the standard 4-component DAS28.

METHODS

Latent class mixed modeling of response to biologic treatment was applied to 2,991 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in whom treatment with a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug was being initiated within the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate cohort, using both 4-component and 2-component DAS28 scores as outcome measures. Patient groups with similar trajectories were compared in terms of pretreatment baseline characteristics (including disability and comorbidities) and follow-up characteristics (including antidrug antibody events, adherence to treatments, and blood drug levels). We compared the trajectories obtained using the 4- and 2-component scores to determine which characteristics were better captured by each.

RESULTS

Using the 4-component DAS28, we identified 3 trajectory groups, which is consistent with previous findings. We showed that the 4-component DAS28 captures information relating to depression. Using the 2-component DAS28, 7 trajectory groups were identified; among them, distinct groups of nonresponders had a higher incidence of respiratory comorbidities and a higher proportion of antidrug antibody events. We also identified a group of patients for whom the 2-component DAS28 scores remained relatively low; this group included a high percentage of patients who were nonadherent to treatment. This highlights the utility of both the 4- and 2-component DAS28 for monitoring different components of disease activity.

CONCLUSION

Here we show that the 2-component modified DAS28 defines important biologic and clinical phenotypes associated with treatment outcome in RA and characterizes important underlying response mechanisms to biologic drugs.

Disease activity trajectories in rheumatoid arthritis: a tool for prediction of outcome

Objective: Predicting treatment response and disease progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) remains an elusive endeavour. Identifying subgroups of patients with similar progression is essential for understanding what hinders improvement. However, this cannot be achieved with response criteria based on current versus previous Disease Activity Scores, as they lack the time component. We propose a longitudinal approach that identifies subgroups of patients while capturing their evolution across several clinical outcomes simultaneously (multi-trajectories). Method: For exploration, the RA cohort BARFOT (n = 2829) was used to identify 24 month post-diagnosis simultaneous trajectories of 28-joint Disease Activity Score and its components. Measurements were available at inclusion (0), 3, 6, 12, 24, and 60 months. Multi-trajectories were found with latent class growth modelling. For validation, the TIRA-2 cohort (n = 504) was used. Radiographic changes, assessed by the modified Sharp van der Heijde score, were correlated with trajectory membership. Results: Three multi-trajectories were identified, with 39.6% of the patients in the lowest and 18.9% in the highest (worst) trajectory. Patients in the worst trajectory had on average eight tender and six swollen joints after 24 months. Radiographic changes at 24 and 60 months were significantly increased from the lowest to the highest trajectory. Conclusion: Multi-trajectories constitute a powerful tool for identifying subgroups of RA patients and could be used in future studies searching for predictive biomarkers for disease progression. The evolution and shape of the trajectories in TIRA-2 were very similar to those in BARFOT, even though TIRA-2 is a newer cohort.

Identification of heterogenous treatment response trajectories to anti-IL6 receptor treatment in rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease with fluctuating course of progression. Despite substantial improvement in treatments in recent years, treatment response is still not guaranteed. The aim of this study was to identify variation in Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) of RA patients in response to Tocilizumab, and to investigate both molecular and clinical factors influencing response. Clinical and biochemical data for 485 RA patients receiving Tocilizumab in combination with methotrexate were extracted from the LITHE phase III clinical study (NCT00106535), and post-hoc analysis conducted. Latent class mixed models were used to identify statistically distinct trajectories of DAS28 after the initiation of treatment. Biomarker measurements were then analysed cross-sectionally and temporally, to characterise patients by serological biomarkers and clinical factors. We identified three distinct trajectories of drug response: class 1 (n = 85, 17.5%), class 2 (n = 338, 69.7%) and class 3 (n = 62, 12.8%). All groups started with high DAS28 on average (DAS28 > 5.1). Class 1 showed the least reduction in DAS28, with significantly more patients seeking escape therapy (p < 0.001). Class 3 showed significantly higher rates of improvement in DAS28, with 58.1% achieving ACR response levels compared to 2.4% in class 1 (p < 0.0001). Biomarkers of inflammation, MMP-3, CRP, C1M, showed greater reduction in class 3 compared to the other classes. Identification of more homogenous patient sub-populations of drug response may allow for more targeted therapeutic treatment regimens and a better understanding of disease aetiology.

Early response to anti-TNF predicts long-term outcomes including sustained remission: an analysis of the BSRBR-RA

Objective

To identify different trajectories of disease activity in patients with RA following initiation of a first anti-TNF.

Methods

Patients with RA starting their first anti-TNF between 2001 and 2013 were selected from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA. Six-monthly DAS28-ESR scores were used to identify trajectories of disease activity using latent class modelling. Data were included for six follow-ups after registration (approximately 3 years). Subgroup analysis examined changes in disease activity profiles over time.

Results

A total of 14 436 patients with RA starting their first anti-TNF were enrolled between 2001 and 2013 (13 115 between 2001 and 2008, 1321 between 2010 and 2013). The mean number of DAS28-ESR scores was 3.5/patient (s.d. 2.1), with a mean of 184.9 days (s.d. 69.9) between scores. The DAS28-ESR nadir was achieved within 250 days of commencing anti-TNF, although apparent trajectory divergence emerged by first 6-monthly follow-up at 180 days. Four distinct response trajectories comprised the most stable model. Most patients fitted into ‘modest’ (7986 patients; 55.3%) or ‘substantial’ (4676 patients; 32.4%) response trajectories. Of the remainder, 1254 (8.7%) and 520 (3.6%) fitted ‘maximal’ and ‘minimal’ response trajectories, respectively. There was a significant (P < 0.01) increase in proportion achieving ‘maximal’ response between 2001–2008 and 2010–2013.

Conclusion

This is the largest study to identify long-term response trajectories with anti-TNF. By 6 months, longer-term trajectory profiles of DAS28 could already be identified, with many patients identified earlier. The majority of patients had persistent moderate response, equivalent to maintained DAS28-ESR moderate disease activity. The maximal response trajectory (equivalent to sustained DAS2-ESR remission) was only achieved by approximately one-third of patients.

Abatacept in rheumatoid arthritis: survival on drug, clinical outcomes, and their predictors-data from a large national quality register

BACKGROUND

There are limited data regarding efficacy of abatacept treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) outside clinical trials. Quality registers have been useful for observational studies on tumor necrosis factor inhibition in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical efficacy and tolerability of abatacept in RA, using a national register.

METHODS

RA patients that started abatacept between 2006 and 2017 and were included in the Swedish Rheumatology Quality register (N = 2716) were investigated. Survival on drug was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) good response and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) response (improvement of ≥ 0.3) rates (LUNDEX corrected for drug survival) at 6 and at 12 months were assessed. Predictors of discontinuation were investigated by Cox regression analyses, and predictors of clinical response by logistic regression. Significance-based backward stepwise selection of variables was used for the final multivariate models.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference in drug survival by previous biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) exposure (p < 0.001), with longer survival in bionaïve patients. Men (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.98) and methotrexate users (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.95) were less likely to discontinue abatacept, whereas a high pain score predicted discontinuation (HR 1.14 per standard deviation, 95% CI 1.07-1.20). The absence of previous bDMARD exposure, male sex, and a low HAQ score were independently associated with LUNDEX-corrected EULAR good response. The absence of previous bDMARD exposure also predicted LUNDEX-corrected HAQ response.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study of RA, bDMARD naïve patients and male patients were more likely to remain on abatacept with a major clinical response.

The longitudinal effect of biologic use on patient outcomes (disease activity, function, and disease severity) within a rheumatoid arthritis registry

INTRODUCTION

Biologics effectively manage symptoms and disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but their long-term effects remain unclear.

METHOD

Longitudinal data were examined from the Brigham and Women's Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS) registry. Linear regression modeled the effect of biologic exposure on changes in disease activity (Disease Activity Score-28 with C-reactive protein [DAS28-CRP]), functional status (modified Health Assessment Questionnaire [mHAQ]), and RA severity (Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data [RAPID3]). Biologic exposure was the ratio of time on a biologic relative to time participating in the BRASS cohort.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1395 RA patients, 82.3% female, with 6783 unique study visits from 2003 to 2015. At the patient's first visit, mean (SD) age was 56.3 (14.2) years and mean (SD) duration of RA was 12.7 (11.9) years. Average follow-up duration was 5.59 years (range, 1-13). Over time, DAS28-CRP, mHAQ, and RAPID3 scores decreased as the biologic exposure ratio increased. In repeated measures regression models, increased biologic exposure was significantly associated with decreased DAS28-CRP score (β = - 0.647; P < 0.001), decreased mHAQ score (β = - 0.096; P < 0.001), and decreased RAPID3 score (β = - 0.724; P < 0.001) during follow-up. Methotrexate use at baseline predicted decreased DAS28-CRP, mHAQ, and RAPID3 scores during follow-up. Biologic use at baseline predicted increased DAS28-CRP or mHAQ during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased biologic exposure is associated with decreased disease activity, function impairment, and RA severity. Future studies should examine whether earlier initiation of biologics improves patient outcomes in RA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT01793103 Key Points • Biologics effectively manage symptoms and disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but their long-term effects remain unclear. • In this analysis of longitudinal annual population samples of 1395 RA patients in the Brigham and Women's Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS) registry, disease activity, function, and severity scores improved as time on biologic therapy increased. • In repeated measures regression models, time on biologic therapy was a significant predictor of improved outcomes for disease activity, function, and RA severity. • Further studies should examine whether earlier initiation of biologics limits the long-term effect of inflammation on RA outcomes.

Drug retention of biological DMARD in rheumatoid arthritis patients: the role of baseline characteristics and disease evolution

Objective

To examine the association of the evolution in physician-reported and patient-reported outcomes with decision to stop biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) in RA. The contribution of baseline characteristics is well established, but little is known about how the disease evolution influences the decision to discontinue therapy.

Methods

RA patients who initiated a bDMARD treatment from 2009 and with information on date of visit were pooled from seven European RA registers. Each outcome was divided into baseline assessments (capturing the inter-individual differences at drug initiation) and changes from baseline at subsequent visits (capturing the individual evolution). Cox regression models were used to examine their association with drug discontinuation, adjusting for baseline patient and co-therapy characteristics and stratifying by register and calendar year of drug initiation.

Results

A total of 25 077 patients initiated a bDMARDs (18 507 a TNF-inhibitor, 3863 tocilizumab and 2707 abatacept) contributing an amount of 46 456.8 patient-years. Overall, drug discontinuation was most strongly associated with a poor evolution of the DAS28, with a hazard ratio of 1.34 (95% CI 1.29, 1.40), followed by its baseline value. A change of Physician Global Assessment was the next strongest predictor of discontinuation, then the Patient Global Assessment.

Conclusions

The decision to discontinue treatments appears to be mostly influenced by DAS28 and particularly its evolution over time, followed by Physician Global Assessment evolution, suggesting that the decision to stop bDMARDs relies more on the physician’s than on the patient’s global assessment.

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Discrete Trajectories of Resolving and Persistent Pain in People With Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Undergoing Treatment for Inflammation: Results From Three UK Cohorts

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an example of human chronic inflammatory pain. Modern treatments suppress inflammation, yet pain remains a major problem for many people with RA. We hypothesized that discrete RA subgroups might display favorable or unfavorable pain trajectories when receiving treatment, and that baseline characteristics will predict trajectory allocation. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify discrete trajectories of Short Form-36 bodily pain scores during 3 years in 3 RA cohorts (Early RA Network (n = 683), British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register Biologics (n = 7,090) and nonbiologics (n = 1,720) cohorts. Logistic regression compared baseline predictor variables between trajectories. The role of inflammation was examined in a subgroup analysis of people with normal levels of inflammatory markers after 3 years. The mean Short Form-36 bodily pain scores in each cohort improved but remained throughout 3 years of follow-up of >1 standard deviation worse than the UK general population average. Discrete persistent pain (59-79% of cohort participants) and resolving pain (19-27%) trajectories were identified in each cohort. In Early RA Network, a third trajectory displaying persistently low pain (23%) was also identified. In people with normal levels of inflammatory markers after 3 years, 65% were found to follow a persistent pain trajectory. When trajectories were compared, greater disability (adjusted odds ratio = 2.3-2.5 per unit baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire score) and smoking history (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6-1.8) were risk factors for persistent pain trajectories in each cohort. In conclusion, distinct trajectories indicate patient subgroups with very different pain prognosis during treatment for RA. Inflammation does not fully explain the pain trajectories, and noninflammatory factors as well as acute phase response predict which trajectory an individual will follow. Targeted treatments additional to those which suppress inflammation might reduce the long-term burden of arthritis pain. PERSPECTIVE: Immunosuppression decreases inflammation in RA, but pain outcomes are less favorable. Discrete persistent and resolving pain trajectories were identified after treatment, both in early and established RA. Smoking and greater disability at baseline predicted persistent pain. Identifying patient subgroups with a poor pain prognosis could enable adjunctive treatment to improve outcomes.

How to treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis when methotrexate has failed? The use of a multiple propensity score to adjust for confounding by indication in observational studies

OBJECTIVES

To compare consecutive disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-treatment regimes in daily practice in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who failed on initial methotrexate, while using a multiple propensity score (PS) method to control for the spurious effects of confounding by indication.

METHODS

Patients with newly diagnosed RA who had failed initial treatment with methotrexate were selected from METEOR, an international, observational registry. Subsequent DMARD-treatment regimens were categorised as: (1) conventional synthetic DMARD(s) (csDMARD(s)) only (143 patients), (2) csDMARD(s)+glucocorticoid (278 patients) and (3) biological DMARD (bDMARD)±csDMARD(s) (89 patients). Multiple PS that reflect the likelihood of treatment with each treatment-regime were estimated per patient using multinomial regression. Linear mixed model analyses were performed to analyse treatment responses per category (Disease Activity Score (DAS)) after a maximum follow-up duration of 6 and 12 months, and results were presented with adjustment for the multiple PS.

RESULTS

After 6 months, follow-up PS-adjusted treatment responses yielded a change in DAS per year (95%  CI) of -2.00 (-2.65 to -1.36) if patients received a bDMARD; of -0.96 (-1.33 to -0.59) if patients received csDMARD(s)+glucocorticoids and of -0.73 (-1.21 to -0.25) if patients received csDMARDs only. These changes were -0.91 (-1.23 to -0.60); -0.43 (-0.62 to -0.23) and -0.39 (-0.66 to -0.13), respectively after 1  year of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In this analysis of worldwide common practice data with adjustment for multiple PS, patients with RA who had failed initial treatment with methotrexate monotherapy had a better DAS-response after a subsequent switch to a bDMARD-containing treatment regimen than to a regimen with csDMARD(s) only, with or without glucocorticoids.

A Targeted Literature Review Examining Biologic Therapy Compliance and Persistence in Chronic Inflammatory Diseases to Identify the Associated Unmet Needs, Driving Factors, and Consequences

Abstract

Chronic inflammatory diseases (CIDs) represent a substantial clinical and economic burden to patients, providers, payers and society overall. Biologics, such as tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), have emerged as effective treatment options for patients with CIDs. However, the therapeutic potential of biologics is not always achieved in clinical practice, with results from studies examining the use of biologics in real-world settings suggesting lower levels of treatment effectiveness compared with clinical trial results. Using a targeted approach, this literature review demonstrates that compliance and persistence with biologic therapy is suboptimal and that this has implications for both clinical outcomes and treatment costs. The review identified a variety of predictors of treatment compliance and persistence, including increased age, female gender, presence of comorbidities, increased disease activity, longer disease duration, smoking, increased body mass index, higher biologic treatment dose, higher treatment cost and lower health-related quality-of-life scores. Patients often cited factors associated with medication delivery as a reason for non-compliance and non-persistence, and device-related improvements to treatment delivery were associated with higher rates of compliance and persistence. The articles identified in this review provide insights that have the potential to help guide the development of new solutions to improve disease management and optimize treatment regimens. This has the potential to benefit patients’ health by improving clinical outcomes and to reduce the burden to society by limiting the economic impact of patients’ disease.

Funding

UCB Pharma.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12325-018-0759-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Registries in European post-marketing surveillance: a retrospective analysis of centrally approved products, 2005-2013

PURPOSE

Regulatory agencies and other stakeholders increasingly rely on data collected through registries to support their decision-making. Data from registries are a cornerstone of post-marketing surveillance for monitoring the use of medicines in clinical practice. This study was aimed at gaining further insight into the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) requests for new registries and registry studies using existing registries and to review the experience gained in their conduct.

METHODS

European Public Assessment Reports were consulted to identify products for which a request for a registry was made as a condition of the marketing authorisation. All centrally authorised products that received a positive opinion of the EMA Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2013 were included. Data regarding registry design and experiences were collected from EMA electronic record keeping systems.

RESULTS

Of 392 products that received a positive Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use opinion during 2005-2013, 31 registries were requested for 30 products in total. Sixty-five percent were product registries whereas 35% were disease registries and 71% of the registries had a primary safety objective. Most commonly reported issues with registries were delayed time to start and low patient accrual rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The delays found in getting new registries up and running support the need to improve the timeliness of data collection in the post-marketing setting. Methodological challenges met in conducting this study highlighted the need for a clarification of definitions and epidemiological concepts around patient registries. The results will inform the EMA Patient Registry initiative to support use of existing patient registries for the post-authorisation benefit-risk monitoring of medicinal products. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.