Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options

Definition and characteristics of climate-adaptive cities: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cities, as frontline responders to climate change, necessitate a precise understanding of climate-adaptive features. This systematic review aims to define and outline the characteristics of climate-adaptive cities, contributing vital insights for resilient urban planning.

METHODS

This systematic review, initiated on March 6, 2018, and concluded on August 26, 2021, involved reviewing multiple electronic databases based on the study's objectives. The Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) tool was used for quality assessment and critical evaluation of articles retrieved through a comprehensive and systematic text search. Descriptive and thematic analyses were conducted to extract definitions, features, and characteristics of climate-adaptive cities.

RESULTS

Out of 6104 identified articles, 38 articles met the inclusion criteria. In total, 20 definitions and 55 features for climate-adaptive cities were identified in this review. Codes were categorized into two categories and ten subcategories. The categories included definitions and features or characteristics of climate-adaptive cities.

CONCLUSION

A climate-adaptive city, as derived from the findings of this study, is a city that, through effective resource management, future-oriented planning, education, knowledge utilization, innovation in governance and industry, decentralized management, and low-carbon economy, leads to the adaptability, resilience, sustainability, and flexibility of the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city against all climate change impacts and reduces their negative consequences.

Sustainable livelihood capital and climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agriculture: Structural equation modeling analysis in the VIABLE framework

This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers' adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = -0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.

Evolution of livelihood vulnerability in rice terrace systems: Evidence from households in the Ziquejie terrace system in China

Introduction

Globally, terraces, and rice terrace systems face problems that affect their sustainability, such as terrace degradation, abandonment, de-agriculturalization, labor migration, etc. The implementation of development projects such as reforestation, poverty alleviation, and tourism development have changed traditional smallholder livelihood patterns. It is not clear whether farmers' livelihoods have become more resilient or vulnerable as a result.

Methods

Using survey data on households' livelihoods in a rice terrace system in Southern China, we evaluated the livelihood impacts of multiple changes.

Results

The results show that development projects are not entirely beneficial. The attributes and intensity of the disturbance of projects (e.g., tourism) on land functions, and differentiated farmer strategies jointly drive the hierarchical evolution of livelihood vulnerability. In detail, underdeveloped tourism increased rather than reduced livelihood vulnerability; the role of agriculture in livelihood directly exacerbated the variation in vulnerability levels; this resulted in the most vulnerable livelihood for households that are exogenously dependent or located in the core tourism area.

Discussion

Subsequently, an evolutionary model of livelihood vulnerability is proposed in this study. Based on this, we judged that the livelihood vulnerability of rice terrace systems has entered a chaotic stage of adaptation. Reducing livelihood vulnerability will require the support of a tangible and circular pathway of benefits between farmers and the land. Policies should focus on the heterogeneity of farmers and the “negative effects” of development projects on livelihood. This household-level farmer livelihood vulnerability dynamics study goes beyond anti-poverty to provide science-based practical guidance to promote the sustainable development of rice terrace systems.

The impacts of agroforestry on soil multi-functionality depending on practices and duration

Agroforestry systems provide a wide range of soil multiple functions (that is, soil multi-functionality) to human society, including the regulation of nutrients and water in soils and the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, whereas how these effects varied with agroforestry practices and environmental conditions remain unclear. Here, by comparing the soil multi-functionality in agroforestry systems to forests through the field experiment and global scale meta-analysis, we tested, 1) how agroforestry affected soil multi-functionality in a single field study and at the global scale, 2) whether the effects of agroforestry on soil multi-functionality changed in different agroforestry practices, 3) whether the effects of agroforestry on soil multi-functionality varied with environmental conditions. Our study showed that most of the soil functions in agroforestry systems is higher than in forests at the global scale, but show no significant differences between agroforestry and planted forests in our field study. We also found that the effects of agroforestry on soil multi-functionality were varied with agroforestry practices, showing a greater positive in forest-herbage systems than in other practices. In addition, the positive effects of agroforestry on soil organic carbon and total phosphorus declined with the extension of experimental duration. Furthermore, our analysis found that climate conditions had a minor effect on the effects of agroforestry on soil functions. Our analysis revealing that the effects of agroforestry on soil functions depend on agroforestry practices, highlighting that the effects of agroforestry may be diminished with age, and suggesting that the evaluation of ecological impacts of agroforestry should be based on long-term experiments across multiple practices.

Evaluating dual exposure by using climate-conflict vulnerability index on the coastal districts of Sindh, Pakistan

Climate variability is widely recognized as a major concern, particularly in resource-scarce regions where it limits livelihood opportunities by putting additional strain on already depleting resources, resulting in human insecurity and conflicts. Some vulnerability assessments have created a nexus between climate variability and conflicts. The Climate-Water Conflict Vulnerability Index (CWCVI) and the Climate-Agriculture Conflict Vulnerability Index (CACVI) are applied as a tool for exploring the climate and conflict interactions, as well as contrasting the vulnerabilities of the coastal districts of Badin, Thatta, and Sujawal. The analysis incorporates a dual exposure of communities in the form of climate variability and conflict over water and agricultural resources. The study finds that aggression and feelings of insecurity about depleting resources are the main contributing indicators of climate-conflict vulnerability in the coastal districts. District Sujawal showed higher vulnerability in adaptive capacity as compared to the other districts due to poor infrastructure and high dependency on natural resources. However, the district of Badin demonstrated high vulnerability in terms of sensitivity and its exposure to conflicts over agricultural resources is high. The overall CWCVI and CACVI scores were higher in Badin and Thatta, respectively. This study identifies a number of indicators that can be used to improve the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce conflict vulnerability in future policy directions and resource planning.

Perceptions, Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change Effects among Small Livestock Herders in Punjab, Pakistan

Pakistan is an agrarian nation that is among the most vulnerable countries to climatic variations. Around 20% of its GDP is produced by agriculture, and livestock-related production contributes more than half of this value. However, few empirical studies have been conducted to determine the vulnerability and knowledge of livestock herders, and particularly the smaller herders. Comprehending individual perceptions of and vulnerabilities to climate change (CC) will enable effective formulation of CC mitigation strategies. This study intended to explore individual perceptions of and vulnerabilities to CC based on a primary dataset of 405 small livestock herders from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab. The results showed that livestock herders' perceptions about temperature and rainfall variations/patterns coincide with the meteorological information of the study locations. The vulnerability indicators show that Dera Ghazi Khan district is more vulnerable than the other two zones because of high exposure and sensitivity to CC, and lower adaptive capacity. However, all zones experience regular livelihood risks due to livestock diseases and deaths resulting from extreme climatic conditions, lower economic status, and constrained institutional and human resource capabilities, thus leading to increased vulnerability. The results indicate that low-cost local approaches are needed, such as provision of improved veterinary services, increased availability of basic equipment, small-scale infrastructure projects, and reinforcement of informal social safety nets. These measures would support cost-effective and sustainable decisions to enable subsistence livestock herders to adopt climate smart practices.

Puerto Rican Farmers' Obstacles Toward Recovery and Adaptation Strategies After Hurricane Maria: A Mixed-Methods Approach to Understanding Adaptive Capacity

Farmers across the globe are experiencing compounding shocks that make evident the need to better understand potential drivers and barriers to strengthen adaptive capacity. This is especially true in the context of a disaster, where a disruption in the natural and built environment hinders livelihood strategies and exposes the underlying dynamics that perpetuate vulnerability to natural hazards. As such, the interconnections of structural and individual attributes must be considered when evaluating adaptive capacity. This paper uses a convergent mixed-methods approach to assess Puerto Rican farmers' actual and intended adoption of adaptation practices, in light of the obstacles they faced toward recovery after 2017's category four Hurricane Maria, to contribute to better understanding adaptive capacity. This study uses data from 405 farmers across Puerto Rico (87% response rate), surveyed 8 months after Maria by agricultural agents of the Extension Service of the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez. Quantitative data was assessed through negative binomial regressions (actual adoption) and generalized linear models (intended adoption), while qualitative data (reported obstacles) were analyzed through thematic analysis. This study found that almost half of farmers adopted an adaptation practice after Maria, and that in many cases, broader structures, such as systems of governance, farmers' social networks, and infrastructure, affect adaptive capacity more than individual perceptions of capacity. Future adaptation strategies and interventions, especially in the context of disaster, should consider the extent to which structural factors hinder individuals' ability to prepare for, respond, and recover from the impacts of these shocks. Our results show that there might be opportunity to enact new systems in light of catastrophic events, but this does not solely depend on individual actions. The mixed-methods approach used can inform future studies in better assessing adaptive capacity from a standpoint that incorporates individual and structural components.

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus as an Adaptation Strategy for Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods at a Local Level

The imbalance between resource availability and population increase requires transformative approaches to inform policy, decision-making and practice on coherent adaptation strategies for improved livelihoods and resilient communities. Nexus approaches are built on an understanding that natural processes do not operate in isolation within a system; hence, an emergent challenge in one unit obviously disturbs the whole system. This study applied an integrated water-energy-food (WEF) nexus analytical model to holistically assess resource availability, distribution, use and management at a local level in Sakhisizwe Local Municipality, South Africa. The aim was to inform strategies and guidelines on improving livelihoods of resource-poor rural communities. The calculated municipal composite index of 0.185, coupled with a deformed spider graph, represents a marginally sustainable resource management result. The analysis simplified the relationship between the intricately interlinked socio-ecological components and facilitated the identification of priority areas for intervention. The process provides pathways that steer resource use efficiencies and attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Unlike current linear approaches, integrated and transformative approaches like the WEF nexus provide a multidisciplinary platform for stakeholder engagement to sustainably enhance cross-sectoral coordination of resource management and harmonisation of policies and strategies. The WEF nexus approach is useful for informing decisions on improving livelihoods, enhancing resource securities, identifying priority areas for intervention and providing transformative pathways towards sustainable development.

Indicator-Based Assessment of Resilience and Vulnerability in the Indian Himalayan Region: A Case Study on Socio-Economy under Different Scenarios

The Indian Himalayan region is vulnerable to climate change because of its geospatial fragility. The present study gives a framework for the analysis of household and village-level resilience and vulnerability in the Bhagirathi Basin of Indian Western Himalayan region under different climate change scenarios. Villages were selected depending on different biophysical criteria to have a good representation of the study area. Household-level survey using the household economy approach was done in 646 households of 30 villages to collect information on indicators of natural, physical, financial and human capital assets and scores were generated for each category. A cumulative resilience score was obtained for each household and village. Future climate projections on mean annual temperature were also accessed under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to estimate the change in mean temperature of the studied villages and probable change in agricultural production. The result shows that most of the villages of Tehri Garhwal are clustered in vulnerable classes in comparison to Uttarkashi villages and vulnerability scores of 11 and 8 villages changed under climate shock and future agricultural production change scenarios, respectively. The study has manifold implications on further research and policy implementation under socioeconomic vulnerability in the Himalayan region.

An Analytical Framework for Assessing Context-Specific Rural Livelihood Vulnerability

Reviewing both conceptual and empirical studies on climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment, this paper offers an analytical framework to help better understand how context-specific adaptation strategies could be developed. The framework systematically assembles the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and the Vulnerability Assessment frameworks to develop its structural and analytical components. The resulting five-step approach involves: (i) identification of context along with understanding what aspect of vulnerability need to be studied; (ii) assessment of livelihood exposure to climate impacts involving both community perspectives and meteorological data-based climate forecasts; (iii) characterization of available capital asset usages to help buffer climate sensitivity; (iv) analysis of formal and informal institutional impetus to enhance adaptive capacity; and (v) evaluation of gaps between context-specific vulnerability and institutional and policy responses to avoid maladaptive trajectories. Drawing on published research and policy documentation, we apply the framework to the livelihood systems operating in the northeastern floodplain community of Bangladesh to demonstrate the utility of the approach and then discuss its potential to inform adaptation strategies.

Drought Stress and Livelihood Response Based on Evidence from the Koshi River Basin in Nepal: Modeling and Applications

Drought vulnerability analysis at the household level can help people identify livelihood constrains and potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study used meteorological and household level data which were collected from three different districts (Kavrepalanchowk, Sindhuli, and Saptari) in the Koshi River Basin of Nepal to conduct a drought vulnerability analysis. We developed a model for assessing drought vulnerability of rural households based on three critical components, i.e., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results revealed that Saptari (drought vulnerability index, 0.053) showed greater vulnerability to drought disasters than Kavrepalanchowk (0.014) and Sindhuli (0.007). The most vulnerable district (Saptari) showed the highest exposure, the highest sensitivity, and the highest adaptive capacity. Kavrepalanchowk had the middle drought vulnerability index with middle exposure, low sensitivity, and middle adaptive capacity. Sindhuli had the lowest vulnerability with the lowest exposure, the lowest sensitivity, and the lowest adaptive capacity. On the basis of the results of the vulnerability assessment, this paper constructed livelihood adaptation strategies from the perspectives of households, communities, and the government. Many households in Kavrepalanchowk and Sindhuli significantly depend on agriculture as their main source of income. They need to implement some strategies to diversify their sources of income. In addition, the most important livelihood adaptation strategy for Saptari is improving water conservancy facilities to facilitate the allocation of water.

Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A review

The present study evaluates the applicability performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in small forested watersheds (less than 1000 km²). This open-source software is widely used in investigations focused on water availability and quality. Overall, SWAT model performance ranges between satisfactory to good. Normally, underestimates daily peak discharges. The limitations of the model are related to the accuracy of climate data used and to the time period used for validation. Watershed area, forest cover and streamflow spatial distribution have an important influence on modeling processes. Overall, from the analyzed studies, we observed for discharge a decreasing tendency, more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century (up to -54%). For surface runoff, was noticed the same decreasing tendency up to 41%. Regarding sediment yield, the results vary within very wide limits. These findings vary according to watershed location, scenarios adopted, and the eligible period of time.

Study on the Livelihood Vulnerability and Compensation Standard of Employees in Relocation Enterprises: A Case of Chemical Enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin

The relocation of chemical enterprises along the Yangtze River a necessary means of ecological protection in the Yangtze River Basin. Vulnerability assessment provides a new idea for the study of livelihood ability and compensation standard of employees after relocation. Based on the framework of "Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability" proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the survey data of 410 employees of relocation enterprises in the Hubei Province of the Yangtze River Basin, this study firstly constructs a livelihood vulnerability evaluation index system and evaluation model, and analyzes whether the employees of relocation enterprises have the ability to cope with the risk impact brought by the Yangtze River Ecological Restoration policy. Then, we use multiple linear regression model to explore the relationship between the group's exposure, sensitivity, adaptability and livelihood vulnerability. Finally, we design a new compensation standard calculation method for special groups from the perspective of social cost, to alleviate their livelihood vulnerability and provide a theoretical basis and decision support for the government and enterprises to formulate and implement relevant resettlement standards. The results show that: (1) employees of all ages show a certain degree of vulnerability in their livelihood; (2) there are differences in livelihood vulnerability between male and female employees; (3) compared with other positions, the livelihood vulnerability of producers is relatively high, and the vulnerability index is unevenly distributed and internally differentiated; (4) a low family burden ratio, high education, convenient living conditions and complex social network can effectively reduce the vulnerability of employees' livelihood; (5) the key obstacle factors affecting the sustainable livelihood of families are living convenience, adaptability to relocation, policy understanding, children's burden ratio, education, and annual income per capita; (6) the alternative opportunity cost method can be used as the basis to determine the compensation standard of the relocated employees, which can better reflect the compensation effect of the opportunity cost in the existing definition of international compensation mechanisms and realize the leap from concept to action.

Vulnerability of Vietnam to typhoons: A spatial assessment based on hazards, exposure and adaptive capacity

Typhoons have devastating impacts across many Asian countries. Vietnam is presently one of the most disaster-prone nations. Typhoons regularly disrupt human lives and livelihoods in various ways and cause significant damage. Making efficient policy decisions to minimize the vulnerability of affected communities is crucial. This requires a deep understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable to extreme events and natural disasters. An appropriate approach is integrating the three dimensions of hazard, exposure and sensitivity, and community adaptive capacity. However, the vulnerability and adaptive capacity response to typhoons within Vietnam is poorly investigated. Here, we develop a conceptual framework that incorporates 21 indicators to identify vulnerability and adaptive capacity (VAC) using geospatial techniques at regional scales, applied over Vietnam. We find large spatial differences in VAC and are able to identify the top-priority regions that need to enhance their adaptation to typhoons. The Southern Coastal area, South East and Red River Delta demonstrate high and very high vulnerability because of their physical features and the intensity of typhoons that frequently cross these parts of Vietnam. The lower Mekong Delta and Northern Coastal areas are vulnerable to typhoon-driven flood threats, in particular where compounded by sea-level rise. Our framework successfully identified the spatial distribution and different levels of VAC within acceptable limits of uncertainty. It can therefore serve as a template to tackle national issues in disaster risk reduction in Vietnam and assist in the development of suitable mitigation strategies to achieve sustainable outcomes.

Evaluate Typhoon Disasters in 21st Century Maritime Silk Road by Super-Efficiency DEA

The Belt and Road Initiative involves many countries and areas. As the introducer, China plays a key role in the initiative. However, the coastal areas in China have frequently been hit by typhoons that lead to huge casualties and economic losses. In order to reduce damages caused by natural disasters, this paper selected the coastal regions of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as the study areas, specifically Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan, to estimate the vulnerability to typhoon disasters based on the historical data about typhoon disasters and the super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluation model. Although Shanghai is a low-vulnerable region, it needs to pay close attention to the risk of typhoon disasters due to the outstanding economic influence. In addition, it was found that the vulnerability to typhoons in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hainan showed a dramatic fluctuation from 2011 to 2016, and Zhejiang's vulnerability in 2013 was extremely high compared to other years. Meanwhile, Guangdong and Hainan are highly vulnerable areas, suffering from typhoon disasters heavily. Moreover, the vulnerability to typhoons for Fujian is relatively low.

Bibliometric Analysis of Trends in Global Sustainable Livelihood Research

The concept of sustainable livelihoods (SL) is one of the most important subjects of sustainable development, and is an important long-term goal for poverty alleviation. There has been growing interest in the nature and practical application of SL in recent decades. This paper applies bibliometric analysis to collect and analyze data on sustainable livelihoods from the expanded Science Citation index (SCIE) and the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Bibliometric maps can assist greatly in visualizing and summarizing large volumes of data and in studying scientific outputs. The findings offer insights into research trends pertaining to SL, such as these: (1) In recent decades there has been an increase in both the number of papers on SL and their scientific influence. (2) The most active journals are Sustainability, Ecology and Society, Land Use Policy, and International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology. (3) SL papers are distributed mainly in the fields of Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Ecology, Planning & Development, and Green & Sustainable Science & Technology. (4) The USA and UK are leaders in SL research as measured by both the quantity and quality of SL publications. Some developing countries, notably India and China, have seen an increase in SL publications in recent years. (5) Wageningen University in Netherlands, the Chinese Academy of Science, and the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), headquartered in Indonesia, have had a major influence in the field of international SL research. (6) International cooperation has a positive effect on the growth of SL research, suggesting that there is a need for strengthening cooperation among countries, international institutions, and individuals. (7) Major areas of SL research (“hot topics”) are theoretical research on the SL concept; ecosystem conservation; poverty reduction in the poverty-stricken areas; the impact of climate change on livelihoods; and linkages between SL-related policies and institutional change.

A Methodological Framework to Initiate and Design Transition Governance Processes

Abstract: Sustainability transitions require societal change at multiple levels ranging from individual behavioral change to community projects, businesses that offer sustainable products as well as policy-makers that set suitable incentive structures. Concepts, methods and tools are currently lacking that help to initiate and design transition governance processes based upon an encompassing understanding of such diverse interactions of actors and intervention points. This article presents a methodological framework for the initiation and design of transition governance processes. Based upon a conceptualization of sustainability transitions as multilevel learning processes, the methodological framework includes participatory modeling, a systematic literature review and governance system analysis to identify social units (learning subjects and contexts), challenges (learning objects) and intervention points (learning factors) relevant for initiating case-specific transition governance processes. A case study on sustainable food systems in Ontario, Canada is provided to exemplify the application of the methodological framework. The results demonstrate the merit of combining stakeholder-based and expert-based methods, as several learning factors identified in the participatory process could not be found in the general literature, and vice versa. The methodological framework allowed for an integrated analysis of the diversity of existing initiatives in the case study region and specific intervention points to support place-based sustainability innovations. Initiators of transition governance processes can use the results by designing targeted interventions to facilitate and coordinate existing initiatives or by setting new impulses through purposeful action.

Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review

Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience.

A Review of Heat Stress Policies in the Context of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Outdoor Workers

Record-breaking summer heat events are increasing in frequency in Zimbabwe and 2016 was a particularly hot year with the country experiencing its worst heat wave event in decades. Currently, Zimbabwe has no coordinated public health response to deal with heat wave events and no specific data on heat-related morbidity and mortality. The country has no legislation for protecting workers against environmental heat exposure, particularly those most vulnerable who are employed in the informal sector. These workers are also at risk due to their outdoor work environments. The article outlines the state of climate and heat stresses in Zimbabwe, as benchmarked against other African countries and France. It further summarizes outdoor workers' susceptibility to heat exposure and the need for the Zimbabwean Government to develop policies to ensure the health and safety of an increasing population of outdoor workers in Zimbabwe.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses

This article examines lake drying and livelihood dynamics in the context of multiple stressors through a case study of the "Small Lake Chad" in the Republic of Chad. Livelihoods research in regions experiencing persistent lake water fluctuations has largely focused on the well-being and security of lakeshore dwellers. Little is known about the mechanisms through which lake drying shapes livelihood drawbacks and opportunities, and whether locally evolved responses are enhancing livelihoods. Here we address these gaps using empirical, mixed-methods field research couched within the framework of livelihoods and human well-being contexts. The analysis demonstrates that limited opportunities outside agriculture, the influx of mixed ethnic migrants and the increasing spate of violence all enhance livelihood challenges. Livelihood opportunities centre on the renewal effects of seasonal flood pulses on lake waters and the learning opportunities triggered by past droughts. Although drying has spurred new adaptive behaviours predicated on seasonality, traditional predictive factors and the availability of assets, responses have remained largely reactive. The article points to where lake drying fits amongst changes in the wider socio-economic landscape in which people live, and suggests that awareness of the particularities of the mechanisms that connect lake drying to livelihoods can offer insights into the ways local people might be assisted by governments and development actors.

Using a novel climate-water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate-water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate-conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability: Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990-2010

In many agricultural countries, development of rural livelihood through increasing capital is a major regional policy to adapt to climate change. However, the role of livelihood capital in reducing climatic vulnerability is uncertain. This study assesses vulnerability and identifies the effects of common capital indicators on it, using Australian wheat as an example. We calculate exposure (a climate index) and sensitivity (a wheat failure index) to measure vulnerability and classify the resilient and sensitive cases, and express adaptive capacity through financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital indicators for 12 regions in the Australian wheat–sheep production zone from 1991–2010. We identify relationships between 12 indicators of five types of capital and vulnerability with t-tests and six logistic models considering the capital indicator itself, its first-order lag and its square as dependent variables to test the hypothesis that a high level of each capital metric results in low vulnerability. Through differing adaptive capacities between resilient and sensitive groups, we found that only four of the 12 (e.g., the access to finance, cash income level, total crop gross revenues, and family share of farm income) relate to vulnerability, which challenges the hypothesis that increasing capital reduces vulnerability. We conclude that further empirical reexaminations are required to test the relationships between capital measures and vulnerability under the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF).

Integrating Human and Ecosystem Health Through Ecosystem Services Frameworks

The pace and scale of environmental change is undermining the conditions for human health. Yet the environment and human health remain poorly integrated within research, policy and practice. The ecosystem services (ES) approach provides a way of promoting integration via the frameworks used to represent relationships between environment and society in simple visual forms. To assess this potential, we undertook a scoping review of ES frameworks and assessed how each represented seven key dimensions, including ecosystem and human health. Of the 84 ES frameworks identified, the majority did not include human health (62%) or include feedback mechanisms between ecosystems and human health (75%). While ecosystem drivers of human health are included in some ES frameworks, more comprehensive frameworks are required to drive forward research and policy on environmental change and human health.