Modelling the effects of eutrophication, mitigation measures and an extreme flood event on estuarine benthic food webs

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

Assessing the relative importance of stressors to the benthic index, M-AMBI: An example from U.S. estuaries

M-AMBI, a multivariate benthic index, has been used by European and American (U.S.) authorities to assess estuarine and coastal health and has been used in scientific studies throughout the world. It has been shown to be related to multiple pressures and stressors, but the relative importance of individual stressors within a multiple stressor context has not generally been assessed. In this study, we assembled data collected between 1999 and 2015 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using consistent methods. These data included sediment and water quality measures and benthic invertebrate data which were used to calculate M-AMBI. We further assembled watersheds for all US estuaries with benthic data and calculated land use metrics. Random forest (RF) was used to identify those variables most strongly related to M-AMBI. Because RF is a compilation of multiple, nonlinear models, we then assessed which of these variables had a direct relationship with M-AMBI. The resulting variables were then assessed using RF to identify the subsets of variables that produced an effective and parsimonious model. This process was conducted at the national and ecoregional scale and the variables identified as being most important to predict M-AMBI were compared with literature reports of ecological patterns in a given area. At the national scale, better condition was correlated with clearer waters, lower amounts of agriculture in the watershed, and lower carbon and metal concentrations in estuarine sediments. Other stressors were identified as being important at the ecoregional scale, although sediment metal concentrations and watershed agriculture were identified as being important in most ecoregions. Our results suggest that this technique is useful to identify the most important variables impacting M-AMBI at broad spatial scales, even when the percentage of sites in Bad or Poor condition is low. This technique also provides an initial identification of important stressors that can be used to target more intensive local studies.

Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios

Due to non-linear interactions, the effects of contaminant mixtures on aquatic ecosystems are difficult to assess, especially under temperature rise that will likely exacerbate the complexity of the responses. Yet, under the current climatic crisis, assessing the effects of water contaminants and temperature is paramount to understanding the biological impacts of mixtures of stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we use an ecosystem model followed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to prioritize the effects of four single emerging contaminants (ECs) and their mixture, combined with two temperature rise scenarios, on the biomass production of a NE Atlantic estuary. Scenarios ran for 10 years with a time-step of 0.1 days. The results indicate that macroinvertebrate biomass was significantly explained by the effect of each single EC and by their mixture but not by temperature. Globally, the most adverse effects were induced by two ECs and by the mixture of the four ECs, although the sensitivity of macroinvertebrates to the tested scenarios differed. Overall, the present approach is useful to prioritize the effects of stressors and assess the sensitivity of the different trophic groups within food webs, which may be of relevance to support decision making linked to the sustainable management of estuaries and other aquatic systems.

The influence of nutrient enrichment on riverine food web function and stability

Nutrient enrichment of rivers and lakes has been increasing rapidly over the past few decades, primarily because of agricultural intensification. Although nutrient enrichment is known to drive excessive algal and microbial growth, which can directly and indirectly change the ecological community composition, the resulting changes in food web emergent properties are poorly understood. We used ecological network analysis (ENA) to examine the emergent properties of 12 riverine food webs across a nutrient enrichment gradient in the Manawatu, New Zealand. We also derive Keystone Sensitivity Indices to explore whether nutrients change the trophic importance of species in a way that alters the resilience of the communities to further nutrient enrichment or floods. Nutrient enrichment resulted in communities composed of energy inefficient species with high community (excluding microbes) respiration. Community respiration was several times greater in enriched communities, and this may drive hypoxic conditions even without concomitant changes in microbial respiration. Enriched communities exhibited weaker trophic cascades, which may yield greater robustness to energy flow loss. Interestingly, enriched communities were also more structurally and functionally affected by species sensitive to flow disturbance making these communities more vulnerable to floods.

Effects of climate change on coastal ecosystem food webs: Implications for aquaculture

Coastal ecosystems provide important ecosystem services for millions of people. Climate change is modifying coastal ecosystem food web structure and function and threatens these essential ecosystem services. We used a combination of two new and one existing ecosystem food web models and altered scenarios that are possible with climate change to quantify the impacts of climate change on ecosystem stability in three coastal bays in Maine, United States. We also examined the impact of climate change on bivalve fisheries and aquaculture. Our modeled scenarios explicitly considered the predicted effects of future climatic change and human intervention and included: 1) the influence of increased terrestrial dissolved organic carbon loading on phytoplankton biomass; 2) benthic community change driven by synergisms between climate change, historical overfishing, and increased species invasion; and 3) altered trophic level energy transfer driven by ocean warming and acidification. The effects of climate change strongly negatively influenced ecosystem energy flow and ecosystem stability and negatively affected modeled bivalve carrying capacity in each of our models along the Maine coast of the eastern United States. Our results suggest that the interconnected nature of ecosystem food webs make them extremely vulnerable to synergistic effects of climate change. To better inform fisheries and aquaculture management, the effects of climate change must be explicitly incorporated.

Temporal changes of a food web structure driven by different primary producers in a subtropical eutrophic lagoon

Coastal lagoons are often characterized by eutrophic conditions which are known to impair the structure and functioning of both pelagic and benthic compartments. However, the manner in which eutrophication triggers a series of cascade effects in the whole food web in coastal lagoons has received little attention. Using stable isotope (SI) analyses, we investigated the food web structure in the hypertrophic lagoon of Yundang (Xiamen, China) in two periods of the year characterized by the recurrent alternation of Ulva lactuca and phytoplankton blooms in the cool (March) and warm (September) seasons, respectively. Large temporal fluctuations in the dominance of primary producers (i.e. macroalgae vs. phytoplankton) and, thus, in the available food items, were reflected in major changes in the diet and SI signals of several primary consumers, such as the amphipod Grandidierella japonica, the polychaetes Neanthes japonica and Capitella capitata, and omnivorous fishes (i.e. Mugil cephalus, Oreochromis niloticus, and Sardinella zunasi), while these changes were limited in top carnivorous fishes, such as Lateolabrax japonicus. Furthermore, reduced macrozoobenthic abundance available for omnivores in September was found to force omnivores to switch their feeding habits to those of herbivores. The present study provides evidence that the periodical alternation of macroalgal and phytoplankton blooms throughout the year strongly affect the relations among different trophic levels leading to a cascading effect across the whole food web and to major changes in the lagoon's food web structure. Importantly, our study shows that the lagoon's food web structure under persistent eutrophic conditions can still cope with seasonal changes in primary energy source type from macroalgae to microalgae due to the ability of omnivorous fishes to conduit different food sources up to the highest trophic levels. Thus, this study suggests that in such a highly variable eutrophic system, omnivores play a central role in the lagoon's functioning, and help to sustain the biological resources and the ecosystem services provided by the lagoon.

Trophic importance of microphytobenthos and bacteria to meiofauna in soft-bottom intertidal habitats: A combined trophic marker approach

Meiofauna can play an important role in the carbon fluxes of soft-bottom coastal habitats. Investigation of their feeding behavior and trophic position remains challenging due to their small size. In this study, we determine and compare the food sources used by nematodes and benthic copepods by using stable isotope compositions, fatty acid profiles and compound specific isotope analyses of fatty acids in the mudflats, seagrass beds and a sandflat of the Marennes-Oléron Bay, France, and the Sylt-Rømø Bight, Germany. Suspended particulate organic matter was much more ¹³C-depleted than other food sources and meiofauna, highlighting its poor role in the different studied habitats. The very low proportions of vascular plant fatty acid markers in meiofauna demonstrated that these consumers did not rely on this food source, either fresh or detrital, even in seagrass beds. The combined use of stable isotopes and fatty acids emphasized microphytobenthos and benthic bacteria as the major food sources of nematodes and benthic copepods. Compound specific analyses of a bacteria marker confirmed that bacteria mostly used microphytobenthos as a substrate.

Modelling the marine eutrophication: A review

In the frame of a national, joint scientific appraisal, 45 scientific French-speaking experts have been mandated in 2015-2016 by the French ministries of Environment and Agriculture to perform a global review of scientific literature dealing with the eutrophication phenomenon, in freshwater as well as in marine waters. This paper summarizes the main results of this review restricted to a sub-domain, the modelling approach of the marine eutrophication. After recalling the different aims pursued, an overview is given on the historical time course of this modelling effort, its world distribution and the various tools used. Then, the main results obtained are examined, highlighting the specific strengths and weaknesses of the present models. Needs for future improvement are then listed.

Before-After analysis of the trophic network of an experimental dumping site in the eastern part of the Bay of Seine (English Channel)

An experimental study was conducted to assess the physical and biological impacts of muddy fine sand dredged material dumped on a medium sand site Machu offshore the Seine Estuary. Complementary trophic web modelling tools were applied to the Machu ecosystem to analyse the effects of dumping operations. Results show that, after the dumping operations, the biomass of fish increased while invertebrate biomass remained relatively stable through time. Nevertheless, the biomasses of benthic invertebrates, omnivores/scavengers and predators showed some increases, while non-selective deposit feeders and filter feeders decreased. At the ecosystem level, results show that the total ecosystem activity, the ascendency and the overall omnivorous character of the food-web structure increased after dumping operations, whereas recycling subsequently decreased. Finally, the fine and medium sand habitat offshore from the Seine estuary, which undergoes regular natural physical perturbations, shows a high resilience after a short dumping phase.

Impact of flood events on macrobenthic community structure on an intertidal flat developing in the Ohta River Estuary

We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2-3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure.

Implications of Zostera noltii recolonization on Hydrobia ulvae population structure success

Over 1990-1998, the Mondego estuary, Portugal, experienced profound modifications due to eutrophication, culminating in the disappearance and replacement of Zostera noltii by opportunistic macroalgae in the inner most disturbed areas. A decade after restoration measures implementation, Z. noltii started to gradually recolonize the inner parts, following 20 years of absence. This work explores the factors underlying successful Z. noltii recolonization and its subsequent implications on a mud snail Hydrobia ulvae population. During the macroalgal bloom, highest values in H. ulvae abundance, biomass and production were recorded, strongly declining afterwards. Three recovery attempts characterized the post-restoration phase, with considerably increases in H. ulvae abundance, biomass and production since Z. noltii reappearance. The seagrass provided long-term protection and abundant food resources for reproductive adults, contrarily to the ephemeral macroalgae. Through time, large size individuals increased, becoming the population more stable, structured and similar to the one inhabiting the "original"Z. noltii meadows.