1
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Impact of landcover composition and density of localized deer culling sites on chronic wasting disease prevalence. Prev Vet Med 2022; 208:105774. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Revised: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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2
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Brandell EE, Cross PC, Smith DW, Rogers W, Galloway N, MacNulty DR, Stahler DR, Treanor J, Hudson PJ. Examination of the interaction between age-specific predation and chronic disease in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. J Anim Ecol 2022; 91:1373-1384. [PMID: 34994978 PMCID: PMC9912199 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Predators may create healthier prey populations by selectively removing diseased individuals. Predators typically prefer some ages of prey over others, which may, or may not, align with those prey ages that are most likely to be diseased. The interaction of age-specific infection and predation has not been previously explored and likely has sizable effects on disease dynamics. We hypothesize that predator cleansing effects will be greater when the disease and predation occur in the same prey age groups. We examine the predator cleansing effect using a model where both vulnerability to predators and pathogen prevalence vary with age. We tailor this model to chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer and elk populations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with empirical data from Yellowstone grey wolves and cougars. Model results suggest that under moderate, yet realistic, predation pressure from cougars and wolves independently, predators may decrease CWD outbreak size substantially and delay the accumulation of symptomatic deer and elk. The magnitude of this effect is driven by the ability of predators to selectively remove late-stage CWD infections that are likely the most responsible for transmission, but this may not be the age class they typically select. Thus, predators that select for infected young adults over uninfected juveniles have a stronger cleansing effect, and these effects are strengthened when transmission rates increase with increasing prey morbidity. There are also trade-offs from a management perspective-that is, increasing predator kill rates can result in opposing forces on prey abundance and CWD prevalence. Our modelling exploration shows that predators have the potential to reduce prevalence in prey populations when prey age and disease severity are considered, yet the strength of this effect is influenced by predators' selection for demography or body condition. Current CWD management focuses on increasing cervid hunting as the primary management tool, and our results suggest predators may also be a useful tool under certain conditions, but not necessarily without additional impacts on host abundance and demography. Protected areas with predator populations will play a large role in informing the debate over predator impacts on disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen E. Brandell
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesPennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPAUSA,Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife EcologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWIUSA
| | - Paul C. Cross
- U.S. Geological SurveyNorthern Rocky Mountain Science CenterBozemanMTUSA
| | - Douglas W. Smith
- Yellowstone Center for ResourcesYellowstone National ParkWyomingWYUSA
| | - Will Rogers
- Department of EcologyMontana State UniversityBozemanMTUSA
| | | | | | - Daniel R. Stahler
- Yellowstone Center for ResourcesYellowstone National ParkWyomingWYUSA
| | - John Treanor
- Yellowstone Center for ResourcesYellowstone National ParkWyomingWYUSA
| | - Peter J. Hudson
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesPennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPAUSA
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3
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Ness A, Jacob A, Saboraki K, Otero A, Gushue D, Martinez Moreno D, de Peña M, Tang X, Aiken J, Lingle S, McKenzie D. Cellular prion protein distribution in the vomeronasal organ, parotid, and scent glands of white-tailed deer and mule deer. Prion 2022; 16:40-57. [PMID: 35634740 PMCID: PMC9154781 DOI: 10.1080/19336896.2022.2079888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious and fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting species of the cervidae family. CWD has an expanding geographic range and complex, poorly understood transmission mechanics. CWD is disproportionately prevalent in wild male mule deer and male white-tailed deer. Sex and species influences on CWD prevalence have been hypothesized to be related to animal behaviours that involve deer facial and body exocrine glands. Understanding CWD transmission potential requires a foundational knowledge of the cellular prion protein (PrPC) in glands associated with cervid behaviours. In this study, we characterized the presence and distribution of PrPC in six integumentary and two non-integumentary tissues of hunter-harvested mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and white-tailed deer (O. virginianus). We report that white-tailed deer expressed significantly more PrPC than their mule deer in the parotid, metatarsal, and interdigital glands. Females expressed more PrPC than males in the forehead and preorbital glands. The distribution of PrPC within the integumentary exocrine glands of the face and legs were localized to glandular cells, hair follicles, epidermis, and immune cell infiltrates. All tissues examined expressed sufficient quantities of PrPC to serve as possible sites of prion initial infection, propagation, and shedding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Ness
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Aradhana Jacob
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Kelsey Saboraki
- Department of Biology, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Alicia Otero
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes, Universidad de ZaragozaCentro de Encefalopatías y , Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Danielle Gushue
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Diana Martinez Moreno
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Melanie de Peña
- Department of Biology, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Xinli Tang
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Judd Aiken
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutritional Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Susan Lingle
- Department of Biology, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Debbie McKenzie
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Prions and Protein Folding Diseases, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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4
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Islam MR, Bulut U, Feria-Arroyo TP, Tyshenko MG, Oraby T. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Cervid Chronic Wasting Disease in Semi-Arid South Texas. FRONTIERS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY 2022; 2:889280. [PMID: 38455276 PMCID: PMC10910938 DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2022.889280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 03/09/2024]
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a spongiform encephalopathy disease caused by the transmission of infectious prion agents. CWD is a fatal disease that affects wild and farmed cervids in North America with few cases reported overseas. Social interaction of cervids, feeding practices by wildlife keepers and climate effects on the environmental carrying capacity all can affect CWD transmission in deer. Wildlife deer game hunting is economically important to the semi-arid South Texas region and is affected by climate change. In this paper, we model and investigate the effect of climate change on the spread of CWD using typical climate scenarios. We use a system of impulsive differential equations to depict the transmission of CWD between different age groups and gender of cervids. The carrying capacity and contact rates are assumed to depend on climate. Due to the polygamy of bucks, we use mating rates that depend on the number of bucks and does. We analyze the stability of the model and use simulations to study the effect of harvesting (culling) on eradicating the disease, given the climate of South Texas. We use typical climate change scenarios based on published data and our assumptions. For the climate indicator, we calculated and utilized the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that climate change might hinder the efforts to reduce and effectively manage CWD as it becomes endemic to South Texas. The model shows the extinction of the deer population from this region is a likely outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Rafiul Islam
- Department of Mathematics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
| | - Ummugul Bulut
- Department of Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, Texas A&M University-San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, United States
| | | | | | - Tamer Oraby
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, United States
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5
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Spreading speed of chronic wasting disease across deer groups with overlapping home ranges. J Theor Biol 2022; 547:111135. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Revised: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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6
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Rogers W, Brandell EE, Cross PC. Epidemiological differences between sexes affect management efficacy in simulated chronic wasting disease systems. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Will Rogers
- Department of Ecology Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA
| | - Ellen E. Brandell
- Department of Biology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania USA
- Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USA
| | - Paul C. Cross
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center Bozeman Montana USA
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7
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Ossi F, Focardi S, Tolhurst BA, Picco GP, Murphy AL, Molteni D, Giannini N, Gaillard J, Cagnacci F. Quantifying the errors in animal contacts recorded by proximity loggers. J Wildl Manage 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Federico Ossi
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach Via E. Mach 1 San Michele all'Adige 38010 Italy
- C3A—Centro Agricoltura, Alimenti Ambiente—University of Trento Via E. Mach 1 San Michele all'Adige 38010 Italy
| | - Stefano Focardi
- Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi, CNR, Via Madonna del Piano 10—50019 Sesto Fiorentino (FI) Italy
| | - Bryony A. Tolhurst
- School of Applied Sciences The University of Brighton Huxley Building, Lewes Road Brighton BN2 4GJ East Sussex United Kingdom
| | - Gian Pietro Picco
- Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science (DISI) University of Trento via Sommarive 9 I‐38123 Povo (TN) Italy
| | - Amy L. Murphy
- Center for Information and Communication Technology Bruno Kessler Foundation via Sommarive 18 I‐38123 Povo (TN) Italy
| | - Davide Molteni
- Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science (DISI) University of Trento via Sommarive 9 I‐38123 Povo (TN) Italy
| | - Noemi Giannini
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach Via E. Mach 1 San Michele all'Adige 38010 Italy
| | - Jean‐Michel Gaillard
- UMR CNRS 5558 “Biometrie et Biologie Evolutive” Université Claude Bernard Lyon1 Bat G. Mendel 43 Bd du 11 Novembre 1918 Villeurbanne 69622 Cedex France
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach Via E. Mach 1 San Michele all'Adige 38010 Italy
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8
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Chafin TK, Douglas MR, Martin BT, Zbinden ZD, Middaugh CR, Ballard JR, Gray MC, Don White, Douglas ME. Age structuring and spatial heterogeneity in prion protein gene ( PRNP) polymorphism in white-tailed deer. Prion 2021; 14:238-248. [PMID: 33078661 PMCID: PMC7575228 DOI: 10.1080/19336896.2020.1832947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Chronic-wasting disease (CWD) is a prion-derived fatal neurodegenerative disease that has affected wild cervid populations on a global scale. Susceptibility has been linked unambiguously to several amino acid variants within the prion protein gene (PRNP). Quantifying their distribution across landscapes can provide critical information for agencies attempting to adaptively manage CWD. Here we attempt to further define management implications of PRNP polymorphism by quantifying the contemporary geographic distribution (i.e., phylogeography) of PRNP variants in hunter-harvested white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus, N = 1433) distributed across Arkansas (USA), including a focal spot for CWD since detection of the disease in February 2016. Of these, PRNP variants associated with the well-characterized 96S non-synonymous substitution showed a significant increase in relative frequency among older CWD-positive cohorts. We interpreted this pattern as reflective of a longer life expectancy for 96S genotypes in a CWD-endemic region, suggesting either decreased probabilities of infection or reduced disease progression. Other variants showing statistical signatures of potential increased susceptibility, however, seemingly reflect an artefact of population structure. We also showed marked heterogeneity across the landscape in the prevalence of ‘reduced susceptibility’ genotypes. This may indicate, in turn, that differences in disease susceptibility among WTD in Arkansas are an innate, population-level characteristic that is detectable through phylogeographic analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler K Chafin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Marlis R Douglas
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Bradley T Martin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Zachery D Zbinden
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Christopher R Middaugh
- Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, Research, Evaluation, and Compliance Division , Little Rock, AR, USA
| | - Jennifer R Ballard
- Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, Research, Evaluation, and Compliance Division , Little Rock, AR, USA
| | - M Cory Gray
- Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, Research, Evaluation, and Compliance Division , Little Rock, AR, USA
| | - Don White
- University of Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station , Monticello, AR, USA
| | - Michael E Douglas
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, AR, USA
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9
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CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE MODELING: AN OVERVIEW. J Wildl Dis 2021; 56:741-758. [PMID: 32544029 DOI: 10.7589/2019-08-213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2019] [Accepted: 11/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious and fatal prion disease occurring in the family Cervidae. To update the research community regarding the status quo of CWD epidemic models, we conducted a meta-analysis on CWD research. We collected data from peer-reviewed articles published since 1980, when CWD was first diagnosed, until December 2018. We explored the analytical methods used historically to understand CWD. We used 14 standardized variables to assess overall analytical approaches of CWD research communities, data used, and the modeling methods used. We found that CWD modeling initiated in the early 2000s and has increased since then. Connectivity of the research community was heavily reliant on a cluster of CWD researchers. Studies focused primarily on regression and compartment-based models, population-level approaches, and host species of game management concern. Similarly, CWD research focused on single populations, species, and locations, neglecting modeling using community ecology and biogeographic approaches. Chronic wasting disease detection relied on classic diagnostic methods with limited sensitivity for most stages of infection. Overall, we found that past modeling efforts generated a solid baseline for understanding CWD in wildlife and increased our knowledge on infectious prion ecology. Future analytical efforts should consider more sensitive diagnostic methods to quantify uncertainty and broader scale studies to elucidate CWD transmission beyond population-level approaches. Considering that infectious prions may not follow biological rules of well-known wildlife pathogens (i.e., viruses, bacteria, fungi), assumptions used when modeling other infectious disease may not apply for CWD. Chronic wasting disease is a new challenge in wildlife epidemiology.
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10
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Mysterud A, Viljugrein H, Rolandsen CM, Belsare AV. Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2021; 8:210124. [PMID: 33959374 PMCID: PMC8074915 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Hildegunn Viljugrein
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, PO Box 750 Sentrum, 0106 Oslo, Norway
| | - Christer M. Rolandsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), PO Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Aniruddha V. Belsare
- Boone and Crockett Quantitative Wildlife Center, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
- Department of Biology, Emory College of Arts and Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
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11
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Hedman HD, Varga C, Brown WM, Shelton P, Roca AL, Novakofski JE, Mateus-Pinilla NE. Spatial analysis of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Illinois, 2008-2019. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:2376-2383. [PMID: 33112021 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the geographic distribution and clustering of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations can inform disease management practices. We used a retrospective analysis of surveillance data to evaluate CWD's spatial and temporal dynamics within 16 CWD-infected northern Illinois counties. Of 42,541 deer samples collected and tested for CWD from recreational hunter harvest between 2008 and 2019, we recorded 359 (0.84%) CWD-positive samples. We observed variability in CWD cases over time and space. By county, the median CWD-positive proportion was 0.84%, varying from a minimum of 0.14% in McHenry County to a maximum of 6.28% in Boone County. Across years, there were differences among CWD-positive proportions with a median of 0.90%, ranging from a minimum of 0.27% in 2012 to a maximum of 1.60% in 2019. We used a retrospective discrete Poisson scan statistic model to evaluate the space-time clustering of CWD-positive deer. We identified a statistically significant (p < .001) primary cluster C1 (area = 23.59 km2 ; RR = 10.48), occurring from 2010 to 2015 in the north-central part of the study area, and a secondary cluster C2, occurring from 2014 to 2019 (area = 9.27 km2 ; RR = 3.88) in the north-west of the study area. Detected CWD-positive space-time clusters suggest that the risk of CWD is not random. Space-time clusters of CWD can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the Illinois CWD management programme. The area surrounding the older C1 cluster has undergone longer and more intense CWD management compared with C2. Currently, the older C1 cluster is no longer as high risk compared with the newer cluster C2, suggesting that management efforts in C2 should be increased. However, all CWD clusters should be targeted with surveillance, prevention and management programmes, including reducing deer densities to limit further spread of CWD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hayden D Hedman
- Illinois Natural History Survey-Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA
| | - Csaba Varga
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - William M Brown
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Paul Shelton
- Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Division of Wildlife Resources, Springfield, IL, USA
| | - Alfred L Roca
- Illinois Natural History Survey-Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA.,Department of Animal Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Jan E Novakofski
- Illinois Natural History Survey-Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA.,Department of Animal Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Nohra E Mateus-Pinilla
- Illinois Natural History Survey-Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA.,Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA.,Department of Animal Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
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12
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Webber QMR, Vander Wal E. Heterogeneity in social network connections is density-dependent: implications for disease dynamics in a gregarious ungulate. Behav Ecol Sociobiol 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s00265-020-02860-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
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13
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Escobar LE, Pritzkow S, Winter SN, Grear DA, Kirchgessner MS, Dominguez-Villegas E, Machado G, Peterson AT, Soto C. The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2020; 95:393-408. [PMID: 31750623 PMCID: PMC7085120 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2019] [Revised: 10/11/2019] [Accepted: 10/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters' cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis E. Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, U.S.A
| | - Sandra Pritzkow
- Mitchell Center for Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Brain Disorders, Department of Neurology, University of Texas Medical School at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, U.S.A
| | - Steven N. Winter
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, U.S.A
| | - Daniel A. Grear
- US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center, Madison, WI, 59711, U.S.A
| | | | | | - Gustavo Machado
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27606, U.S.A
| | - A. Townsend Peterson
- Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, U.S.A
| | - Claudio Soto
- Mitchell Center for Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Brain Disorders, Department of Neurology, University of Texas Medical School at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, U.S.A
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14
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Mysterud A, Madslien K, Viljugrein H, Vikøren T, Andersen R, Güere ME, Benestad SL, Hopp P, Strand O, Ytrehus B, Røed KH, Rolandsen CM, Våge J. The demographic pattern of infection with chronic wasting disease in reindeer at an early epidemic stage. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES) Department of Biosciences University of Oslo NO‐0316 P.O. Box 1066 Blindern Oslo Norway
| | - Knut Madslien
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute NO‐0106 P.O. Box 750 Sentrum Oslo Norway
| | | | - Turid Vikøren
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute NO‐0106 P.O. Box 750 Sentrum Oslo Norway
| | - Roy Andersen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) NO‐7485 P. O. Box 5685 Torgarden Trondheim Norway
| | - Mariella Evelyn Güere
- Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine Norwegian University of Life Sciences NO‐0102 P.O. Box 369 Sentrum Oslo Norway
| | | | - Petter Hopp
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute NO‐0106 P.O. Box 750 Sentrum Oslo Norway
| | - Olav Strand
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) NO‐7485 P. O. Box 5685 Torgarden Trondheim Norway
| | - Bjørnar Ytrehus
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) NO‐7485 P. O. Box 5685 Torgarden Trondheim Norway
| | - Knut H. Røed
- Department of Basic Sciences and Aquatic Medicine Norwegian University of Life Sciences NO‐0102 P.O. Box 369 Sentrum Oslo Norway
| | - Christer M. Rolandsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) NO‐7485 P. O. Box 5685 Torgarden Trondheim Norway
| | - Jørn Våge
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute NO‐0106 P.O. Box 750 Sentrum Oslo Norway
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15
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Koutsoumanis K, Allende A, Alvarez-Ordoňez A, Bolton D, Bover-Cid S, Chemaly M, Davies R, De Cesare A, Herman L, Hilbert F, Lindqvist R, Nauta M, Peixe L, Ru G, Skandamis P, Suffredini E, Andreoletti O, Benestad SL, Comoy E, Nonno R, da Silva Felicio T, Ortiz-Pelaez A, Simmons MM. Update on chronic wasting disease (CWD) III. EFSA J 2019; 17:e05863. [PMID: 32626163 PMCID: PMC7008890 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
The European Commission asked EFSA for a Scientific Opinion: to revise the state of knowledge about the differences between the chronic wasting disease (CWD) strains found in North America (NA) and Europe and within Europe; to review new scientific evidence on the zoonotic potential of CWD and to provide recommendations to address the potential risks and to identify risk factors for the spread of CWD in the European Union. Full characterisation of European isolates is being pursued, whereas most NA CWD isolates have not been characterised in this way. The differing surveillance programmes in these continents result in biases in the types of cases that can be detected. Preliminary data support the contention that the CWD strains identified in Europe and NA are different and suggest the presence of strain diversity in European cervids. Current data do not allow any conclusion on the implications of strain diversity on transmissibility, pathogenesis or prevalence. Available data do not allow any conclusion on the zoonotic potential of NA or European CWD isolates. The risk of CWD to humans through consumption of meat cannot be directly assessed. At individual level, consumers of meat, meat products and offal derived from CWD-infected cervids will be exposed to the CWD agent(s). Measures to reduce human dietary exposure could be applied, but exclusion from the food chain of whole carcasses of infected animals would be required to eliminate exposure. Based on NA experiences, all the risk factors identified for the spread of CWD may be associated with animals accumulating infectivity in both the peripheral tissues and the central nervous system. A subset of risk factors is relevant for infected animals without involvement of peripheral tissues. All the risk factors should be taken into account due to the potential co-localisation of animals presenting with different disease phenotypes.
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16
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Viljugrein H, Hopp P, Benestad SL, Nilsen EB, Våge J, Tavornpanich S, Rolandsen CM, Strand O, Mysterud A. A method that accounts for differential detectability in mixed samples of long‐term infections with applications to the case of chronic wasting disease in cervids. Methods Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Jørn Våge
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute Oslo Norway
| | | | | | - Olav Strand
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) Trondheim Norway
| | - Atle Mysterud
- Department of BiosciencesCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES)University of Oslo Oslo Norway
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17
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Schuler KL, Jenks JA, Klaver RW, Jennelle CS, Bowyer RT. Chronic wasting disease detection and mortality sources in semi-protected deer population. WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 2018. [DOI: 10.2981/wlb.00437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Krysten L. Schuler
- K. L. Schuler , J. A. Jenks, Dept of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, South Dakot
| | - Jonathan A. Jenks
- K. L. Schuler , J. A. Jenks, Dept of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, South Dakot
| | - Robert W. Klaver
- R. W. Klaver, US Geological Survey, Iowa Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit, Iowa State Univ., Ames,
| | | | - R. Terry Bowyer
- R. T. Bowyer, Dept of Biological Sciences, Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID, USA
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18
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Maji C, Mukherjee D, Kesh D. Deterministic and stochastic analysis of an eco-epidemiological model. J Biol Phys 2018; 44:17-36. [PMID: 28988403 PMCID: PMC5834997 DOI: 10.1007/s10867-017-9472-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Accepted: 09/20/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease among the deer family that has the potential to disrupt the ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. To understand the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, we consider a simple eco-epidemic model where the host population is infected by CWD. Boundedness of the system is established. The structure of equilibria and their linearized stability are investigated. The persistence condition is discussed. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we discuss the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Local bifurcation (transcritical) around the boundary equilibria is developed. Sufficient conditions for the existence of Hopf-bifurcation are derived. Further, we have also introduced white type of noise into the system to investigate stochastic stability. This suggests that the deterministic model is robust with respect to stochastic perturbation. Some numerical simulations are performed to validate our results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chandan Maji
- Department of Mathematics, Vivekananda College, Thakurpukur, 269 D.H. Road, Kolkata, 700063 India
| | - Debasis Mukherjee
- Department of Mathematics, Vivekananda College, Thakurpukur, 269 D.H. Road, Kolkata, 700063 India
| | - Dipak Kesh
- Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032 India
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19
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Mejía‐Salazar MF, Waldner CL, Hwang YT, Bollinger TK. Use of environmental sites by mule deer: a proxy for relative risk of chronic wasting disease exposure and transmission. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- María Fernanda Mejía‐Salazar
- Department of Veterinary Pathology University of Saskatchewan 52 Campus Drive Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5B4 Canada
| | - Cheryl L. Waldner
- Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences University of Saskatchewan 52 Campus Drive Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5B4 Canada
| | - Yeen Ten Hwang
- Department of Veterinary Pathology University of Saskatchewan 52 Campus Drive Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5B4 Canada
- Fish and Wildlife Branch Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment Regina Saskatchewan S4S 5W6 Canada
| | - Trent K. Bollinger
- Department of Veterinary Pathology University of Saskatchewan 52 Campus Drive Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5B4 Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative (CWHC) 52 Campus Drive Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5B4 Canada
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20
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Mejía-Salazar MF, Goldizen AW, Menz CS, Dwyer RG, Blomberg SP, Waldner CL, Cullingham CI, Bollinger TK. Mule deer spatial association patterns and potential implications for transmission of an epizootic disease. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0175385. [PMID: 28388681 PMCID: PMC5384682 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0175385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2016] [Accepted: 03/24/2017] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Animal social behaviour can have important effects on the long-term dynamics of diseases. In particular, preferential spatial relationships between individuals can lead to differences in the rates of disease spread within a population. We examined the concurrent influence of genetic relatedness, sex, age, home range overlap, time of year, and prion disease status on proximal associations of adult Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) in a chronic wasting disease endemic area. We also quantified the temporal stability of these associations across different sex, age, and disease status classes. We used three years of high frequency telemetry data from 74 individuals to record encounters within 25 m of each other, and to calculate seasonal home range overlap measured by volume of intersection (VI). The strength of pairwise spatial association between adult mule deer was independent of genetic relatedness, age and disease status. Seasonal variation in association strength was not consistent across years, perhaps due to annual changes in weather conditions. The influence of home range overlap on association strength varied seasonally, whereby associations were stronger in pre-rut and fawning than in the rest of the seasons. The sexes of individuals also interacted with both VI and season. At increasing levels of VI, associations were stronger between females than between males and between females and males. The strongest associations in pre-rut were between males, while the strongest in rut were between females and males. The temporal stability of associations was markedly dependant on the sex and the diagnosis of the associating pair. Our findings highlight the importance of considering concurrent effects of biological and environmental factors when seeking to understand the role of social preference in behavioural ecology and disease spread. Applying this knowledge in epidemiological modelling will shed light on the dynamics of disease transmission among mule deer.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anne W. Goldizen
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Clementine S. Menz
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ross G. Dwyer
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Simon P. Blomberg
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Cheryl L. Waldner
- Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | | | - Trent K. Bollinger
- Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative (CWHC), Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
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21
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Samuel MD, Storm DJ. Chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: infection, mortality, and implications for heterogeneous transmission. Ecology 2016; 97:3195-3205. [PMID: 27870037 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2016] [Revised: 06/29/2016] [Accepted: 07/05/2016] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting free-ranging and captive cervids that now occurs in 24 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Despite the potential threat of CWD to deer populations, little is known about the rates of infection and mortality caused by this disease. We used epidemiological models to estimate the force of infection and disease-associated mortality for white-tailed deer in the Wisconsin and Illinois CWD outbreaks. Models were based on age-prevalence data corrected for bias in aging deer using the tooth wear and replacement method. Both male and female deer in the Illinois outbreak had higher corrected age-specific prevalence with slightly higher female infection than deer in the Wisconsin outbreak. Corrected ages produced more complex models with different infection and mortality parameters than those based on apparent prevalence. We found that adult male deer have a more than threefold higher risk of CWD infection than female deer. Males also had higher disease mortality than female deer. As a result, CWD prevalence was twofold higher in adult males than females. We also evaluated the potential impacts of alternative contact structures on transmission dynamics in Wisconsin deer. Results suggested that transmission of CWD among male deer during the nonbreeding season may be a potential mechanism for producing higher rates of infection and prevalence characteristically found in males. However, alternatives based on high environmental transmission and transmission from females to males during the breeding season may also play a role.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael D Samuel
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wisconsin , Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Daniel J Storm
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin , Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.,Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Rhinelander, Wisconsin, 54501, USA
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22
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Abstract
Infectious disease dynamics are determined, to a great extent, by the social structure of the host. We evaluated sociality, or the tendency to form groups, in Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) from a chronic wasting disease (CWD) endemic area in Saskatchewan, Canada, to better understand factors that may affect disease transmission. Using group size data collected on 365 radio-collared mule deer (2008–2013), we built a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to evaluate whether factors such as CWD status, season, habitat and time of day, predicted group occurrence. Then, we built another GLMM to determine factors associated with group size. Finally, we used 3 measures of group size (typical, mean and median group sizes) to quantify levels of sociality. We found that mule deer showing clinical signs of CWD were less likely to be reported in groups than clinically healthy deer after accounting for time of day, habitat, and month of observation. Mule deer groups were much more likely to occur in February and March than in July. Mixed-sex groups in early gestation were larger than any other group type in any season. Groups were largest and most likely to occur at dawn and dusk, and in open habitats, such as cropland. We discuss the implication of these results with respect to sociobiology and CWD transmission dynamics.
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23
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Potapov A, Merrill E, Pybus M, Lewis MA. Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0151039. [PMID: 26963921 PMCID: PMC4786122 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2015] [Accepted: 02/23/2016] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Potapov
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Evelyn Merrill
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Margo Pybus
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Mark A. Lewis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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24
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Al-Arydah M, Croteau MC, Oraby T, Smith RJ, Krewski D. Applications of mathematical modeling in managing the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer under alternative harvesting scenarios. JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH. PART A 2016; 79:690-699. [PMID: 27556563 DOI: 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The application of a recently developed mathematical model for predicting the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer was assessed under different scenarios where harvesting is employed in disease management. A process-based mathematical model for CWD transmission in wild deer populations was recently developed and parameterized by Al-arydah et al. (2011) to provide a scientific basis for understanding the factors that affect spread of CWD and evaluate concomitant disease-control strategies. The impact of gender on CWD transmission was shown to have a significant influence on the spread of the disease in the wild. Our model demonstrates a range of harvesting rates in which CWD is controlled and deer populations survive. However, if harvesting rates are too low, the disease remains endemic for decades. Conversely, the Canadian deer population is eradicated if harvesting rates are excessive. Future investigation includes building the model to assess the spread of CWD under different disease-management scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Al-Arydah
- a Masdar Institute of Science and Technology , Abu Dhabi , UAE
| | - M C Croteau
- b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada
| | - T Oraby
- c School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences , University of Texas Rio Grande Valley , Edinburg , Texas , USA
| | - R J Smith
- d Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada
| | - D Krewski
- b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada
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25
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Potapov A, Merrill E, Pybus M, Lewis MA. Empirical Estimation of R0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0140024. [PMID: 26452231 PMCID: PMC4599850 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2013] [Accepted: 09/20/2015] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Potapov
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Evelyn Merrill
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
| | - Margo Pybus
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, 6909–116 St., Edmonton, AB, T6H 4P2, Canada
| | - Mark A. Lewis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada
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26
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Jennelle CS, Henaux V, Wasserberg G, Thiagarajan B, Rolley RE, Samuel MD. Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: implications for disease spread and management. PLoS One 2014; 9:e91043. [PMID: 24658535 PMCID: PMC3962341 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2012] [Accepted: 02/07/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher S. Jennelle
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Viviane Henaux
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Gideon Wasserberg
- Biology Department, University of North Carolina, Greensboro, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Bala Thiagarajan
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Robert E. Rolley
- Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Michael D. Samuel
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
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27
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Monello RJ, Powers JG, Hobbs NT, Spraker TR, Watry MK, Wild MA. Survival and population growth of a free-ranging elk population with a long history of exposure to chronic wasting disease. J Wildl Manage 2014. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ryan J. Monello
- Biological Resource Management Division; National Park Service; 1201 Oakridge STE 200 Fort Collins CO 80525
| | - Jenny G. Powers
- Biological Resource Management Division; National Park Service; 1201 Oakridge STE 200 Fort Collins CO 80525
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology; Colorado State University; Fort Collins CO 80523
| | - Terry R. Spraker
- Colorado State Diagnostic Laboratory; College of Veterinary Medicine; Colorado State University; Fort Collins CO 80523
| | - Mary Kay Watry
- Rocky Mountain National Park; National Park Service; Estes Park CO 80517
| | - Margaret A. Wild
- Biological Resource Management Division; National Park Service; 1201 Oakridge STE 200 Fort Collins CO 80525
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28
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Manjerovic MB, Green ML, Mateus-Pinilla N, Novakofski J. The importance of localized culling in stabilizing chronic wasting disease prevalence in white-tailed deer populations. Prev Vet Med 2014; 113:139-45. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2012] [Revised: 09/11/2013] [Accepted: 09/14/2013] [Indexed: 01/23/2023]
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29
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Oraby T, Vasilyeva O, Krewski D, Lutscher F. Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease. J Theor Biol 2013; 340:50-9. [PMID: 24035840 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2013] [Revised: 07/11/2013] [Accepted: 09/03/2013] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tamer Oraby
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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