The transition zones (ecotone) between boreal forests and peatlands: Modelling water table along a transition zone between upland black spruce forest and poor forested fen in central Saskatchewan

Shortening fire return interval predisposes west-central Canadian boreal peatlands to more rapid vegetation growth and transition to forest cover

Climate change in northern latitudes is increasing the vulnerability of peatlands and the riparian transition zones between peatlands and upland forests (referred to as ecotones) to greater frequency of wildland fires. We examined early post-fire vegetation regeneration following the 2011 Utikuma complex fire (central Alberta, Canada). This study examined 779 peatlands and adjacent ecotones, covering an area of ~182 km2 . Based on the known regional fire history, peatlands that burned in 2011 were stratified into either long return interval (LRI) fire regimes of >80 years (i.e., no recorded prior fire history) or short fire return interval (SRI) of 55 years (i.e., within the boundary of a documented severe fire in 1956). Data from six multitemporal airborne lidar surveys were used to quantify trajectories of vegetation change for 8 years prior to and 8 years following the 2011 fire. To date, no studies have quantified the impacts of post-fire regeneration following short versus long return interval fires across this broad range of peatlands with variable environmental and post-fire successional trajectories. We found that SRI peatlands demonstrated more rapid vascular and shrub growth rates, especially in peatland centers, than LRI peatlands. Bogs and fens burned in 1956, and with little vascular vegetation (classified as "open peatlands") prior to the 2011 fire, experienced the greatest changes. These peatlands tended to transition to vascular/shrub forms following the SRI fire, while open LRI peatlands were not significantly different from pre-fire conditions. The results of this study suggest the emergence of a positive feedback, where areas experiencing SRI fires in southern boreal peatlands are expected to transition to forested vegetation forms. Along fen edges and within bog centers, SRI fires are expected to reduce local peatland groundwater moisture-holding capacity and promote favorable conditions for increased fire frequency and severity in the future.

Accuracy of tropical peat and non-peat fire forecasts enhanced by simulating hydrology

Soil moisture deficits and water table dynamics are major biophysical controls on peat and non-peat fires in Indonesia. Development of modern fire forecasting models in Indonesia is hampered by the lack of scalable hydrologic datasets or scalable hydrology models that can inform the fire forecasting models on soil hydrologic behaviour. Existing fire forecasting models in Indonesia use weather data-derived fire probability indices, which often do not adequately proxy the sub-surface hydrologic dynamics. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture and water table dynamics can be simulated successfully across tropical peatlands and non-peatland areas by using a process-based eco-hydrology model (ecosys) and publicly available data for weather, soil, and management. Inclusion of these modelled water table depth and soil moisture contents significantly improves the accuracy of a neural network model in predicting active fires at two-weekly time scale. This constitutes an important step towards devising an operational fire early warning system for Indonesia.

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO2 and CH4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH₄ fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO₂ uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH₄ emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH₄ emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m^-2 year^-1. In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO₂ changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m^-2 year^-1 to a source of 369.6 gC m^-2 year^-1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH₄ and the sink strength of CO₂. We conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH₄ fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.