The effects of fecundity, mortality and distribution of the initial condition in phenological models

A model for predicting the phenology of Philaenus spumarius

The design and implementation of Philaenus spumarius control strategies can take advantage of properly calibrated models describing and predicting the phenology of vector populations in agroecosystems. We developed a temperature-driven physiological-based model based on the system of Kolmogorov partial differential equations to predict the phenological dynamics of P. spumarius. The model considers the initial physiological age distribution of eggs, the diapause termination process, and the development rate functions of post-diapausing eggs and nymphal stages, estimated from data collected in laboratory experiments and field surveys in Italy. The temperature threshold and cumulative degree days for egg diapause termination were estimated as 6.5 °C and 120 DD, respectively. Preimaginal development rate functions exhibited lower thresholds ranging between 2.1 and 5.0 °C, optimal temperatures between 26.6 and 28.3 °C, and upper threshold between 33.0 and 35 °C. The model correctly simulates the emergence of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th nymphal instars, key stages to target monitoring actions and control measures against P. spumarius. Precision in simulating the phenology of the 1st and 2nd nymphal stages was less satisfactory. The model is a useful rational decision tool to support scheduling monitoring and control actions against the late and most important nymphal stages of P. spumarius.

Temperature sensitivity of pest reproductive numbers in age-structured PDE models, with a focus on the invasive spotted lanternfly

Invasive pest establishment is a pervasive threat to global ecosystems, agriculture, and public health. The recent establishment of the invasive spotted lanternfly in the northeastern United States has proven devastating to farms and vineyards, necessitating urgent development of population dynamical models and effective control practices. In this paper, we propose a stage-age-structured system of PDEs to model insect pest populations, in which underlying dynamics are dictated by ambient temperature through rates of development, fecundity, and mortality. The model incorporates diapause and non-diapause pathways, and is calibrated to experimental and field data on the spotted lanternfly. We develop a novel moving mesh method for capturing age-advection accurately, even for coarse discretization parameters. We define a one-year reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) from the spectrum of a one-year solution operator, and study its sensitivity to variations in the mean and amplitude of the annual temperature profile. We quantify assumptions sufficient to give rise to the low-rank structure of the solution operator characteristic of part of the parameter domain. We discuss establishment potential as it results from the pairing of a favorable [Formula: see text] value and transient population survival, and address implications for pest control strategies.

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

Comparison of New Kairomone-Based Lures for Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Italy and USA

Simple Summary

Adult codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) monitoring with lure-baited traps is a prerequisite to effectively manage this key pest in apple and pear crops without over-spraying insecticides. We evaluated new multi-component lures comprised of blends of sex pheromone and volatile organic compounds (pear ester, dimethyl nonatriene and linalool oxide) loaded into different substrates (septa and PVC lures). Acetic acid in a second membrane lure was used as a co-lure with all blends. Lure comparisons were performed during the period 2019/2020 in Italy and Washington State (USA) in orchards treated with or without sex pheromone dispensers for mating disruption. The highest total moth counts occurred with the sex pheromone/pear ester PVC lure in both countries. The new multi-component PVC lure without sex pheromone captured the greatest number of female moths only in the USA. This geographical disparity may limit the effectiveness of using a ‘female removal’ strategy to manage this pest without insecticides across major production areas.

Abstract

Studies were conducted during the period 2019/2020 to evaluate the effectiveness of four lures for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in pome fruits in Italy and the USA. Multi-component blends of sex pheromone ((E,E)-8,10-dodecadien-1-ol, PH), pear ester ((E,Z)-2,4-ethyl decadienoate, PE), (E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene (DMNT), and pyranoid linalool oxide (6-ethenyl-2,2,6-trimethyloxan-3-ol, LOX) were loaded in either a halobutyl elastomer septum or a PVC matrix and always used in combination with acetic acid (AA) loaded in a closed membrane co-lure. Total moth capture was significantly greater with the PVC than the septum lure loaded with PH/PE + AA in both countries. Female capture in the USA study was significantly greater for 8 weeks in traps baited with the PE/DMNT/LOX blend + AA co-lure than with other lures and adding PH to this blend in a PVC lure significantly reduced female capture. In contrast, female capture in Italy did not differ among lures and counts were similar in both apple and pear crops treated with or without mating disruption. These results suggest that the effectiveness of ‘female removal’ strategies to manage codling moth may be geographically limited and further comparisons are needed in other production regions and in walnut.

Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe.