Business cycle impacts on substance use of adolescents: A multi-country analysis

Association of cigarette smoking with changes in macroeconomic conditions

This study uses data from the 1987-2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and state-level employment rates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the association between macroeconomic conditions and cigarette smoking. Our finding suggests a positive association, which constantly declined with time after the 2001 recession. We find that a one percentage point increase in the employment rate is associated with a 1.4% higher likelihood of smoking cigarettes in the overall sample but declined to 0.4% among cohorts surveyed from 2011 to 2022. We also find strong positive and heterogeneous associations among sociodemographic groups, except among Blacks and persons aged 65 years and older, among whom there is no association; however, the positive associations consistently decreased among these sociodemographic groups. Consequently, the strong positive association disappeared in several sociodemographic groups in cohorts surveyed over the last decade.

Identifying the impact of the business cycle on drug-related harms in European countries

BACKGROUND

The evidence resulting from the analysis of the association between economic fluctuations and their impact on the substance use is mixed and inconclusive. Effects can be pro-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise when economic conditions improve), counter-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise in bad economic times) or unrelated to business cycle conditions as different transmission mechanisms could operate simultaneously.

METHODS

The main aim of this study is to assess, from a macroeconomic perspective, the impact of economic cycles on illegal drug-related harms in European countries over the 2000-2020 period. To this end, the regime-dependent relationship between drug-related harm, proxied by unemployment, and the business cycle, proxied by overdose deaths will be identified. Applying a time dynamic linear analysis, within the framework of threshold panel data models, structural-breaks will also be tested.

RESULTS

The relationship between economic cycles (proxied by unemployment) and drug-related harms (proxied by overdose deaths) is negative, and therefore found to be pro-cyclical. One percentage point in the country unemployment rate is predicted to reduce the overdose death rate by a statistically significant percentage of 2.42. A counter-cyclical component was identified during the 2008 economic recession. The threshold model captures two effects: when unemployment rates are lower than the estimated thresholds, ranging from 3.92% to 4.12%, drug-related harms and unemployment have a pro-cyclical relationship. However, when unemployment rates are higher than this threshold, this relationship becomes counter-cyclical.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between economic cycles and drug-related harms is pro-cyclical. However, in situations of economic downturns, a counter-cyclical effect is detected, as identified during the 2008 economic recession.

What Are the Correlates of Global Variations in the Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorders? An Analysis of Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019

Introduction

The recent opioid crisis in North America has brought the problem of opioid use disorders (OUD) into clinical and public health focus, with experts warning that other countries or regions may be at future risk of experiencing such crises. The existing literature suggests that a wide range of social, cultural and economic factors may be associated with the onset, course and outcome of OUD in individuals. The current study uses data on the estimated prevalence of OUDs across 115 countries, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019, to examine the bivariate and multivariate associations between national prevalence of OUD and these factors.

Methods

Data on the estimated prevalence of OUDs was obtained via a database query from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Collaborative Network database for the year 2019. Recent (2018-2019) data on 10 relevant variables identified in the literature (gross national income, economic inequality, urbanization, social capital, religious affiliation and practice, unemployment, divorce, cultural individualism, and prevalence of depression) were obtained from the GBD, World Bank and Our World in Data databases. After transformation to a normal distribution, bivariate and univariate analyses were conducted to identify the significance and strength of the associations between these variables and the prevalence of OUD.

Results

Of the 10 variables studied, all variables except the divorce rate and religious affiliation were significantly correlated with the prevalence of OUD on bivariate analyses, though the strength of these associations was in the poor to fair range. On multivariate analysis, a significant association was observed only for the prevalence of depression, with trends towards a positive association for cultural individualism and unemployment, and a protective trend observed for religious practice.

Discussion

Though subject to certain limitations inherent in cross-sectional analyses, these results suggest that certain variables may be associated with a higher prevalence of OUD at the national level. Replication and refinement of these analyses may prove useful in identifying countries or regions at risk of a future opioid epidemic or crisis, which could facilitate the institution of preventive measures or early intervention strategies.

Asymmetric behavior of tobacco consumption in Spain across the business cycle: a long-term regional analysis

Many theoretical and empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between the economic cycle and tobacco consumption using the GDP and unemployment rates as the key variables for measuring economic phases. However, few studies focus on the pathways that cause tobacco consumption to be linked with the economic cycle, and there are no studies analyzing the heterogeneous effects underlying this relationship across nations and regions. This article explores the relationship and its pathways in 16 Spanish regions for the period 1989-2018. To this end, we apply a Granger causality analysis based on the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model in levels and extra lags. This method provides more efficient and robust results than the standard VAR model, which can lead to biased results with limited samples, especially in a region-by-region analysis. The empirical results suggest that the impact of the business cycle on tobacco consumption is heterogeneous and specific to each region. In addition, although recession phases cause a decline in tobacco consumption in Spain, in line with the literature, this procyclical relationship does not occur for expansion phases in all regions. One of the main findings of this article is that in expansion phases, tobacco consumption is sensitive to GDP, while in recession phases, tobacco consumption is affected by unemployment. National and regional governments should consider these results when they develop smoking control policies because homogeneous strategies can lead to heterogeneous results. Thus, the results can be useful for policymakers dealing with tobacco control strategies.

The Evolution of Mental Health in the Context of Transitory Economic Changes

BACKGROUND

Mental health disorders are highly prevalent across countries. They increase over time and impose a severe burden on individuals and societies.

OBJECTIVE

This paper examines the evolution of mental health over a period of 15 years, paying special attention on the impact of the most recent economic downturn and subsequent recovery, in Spain.

METHOD

We use data coming from the National Health Surveys of 2006/2007, 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. Mental health is proxied by two measures, doctor-diagnosed mental disorder and psychological distress (based on the 12-item General Health Questionnaire). To account for the relationship between the two mental health indicators, we estimate a bivariate probit model. The potential endogeneity of unemployment status is considered.

RESULTS

We observe different patterns of the two mental health indicators over time. Psychological distress in men increased during recession years, but slightly decreased among women. Diagnosed mental disorders declined during the peak years of the crisis. Unemployment is a major risk factor for mental distress. Irrespective of the economic conditions, belonging to a higher social class acts as a buffer against psychological distress for women, but not for men. The remaining determinants acted as expected. Women declared worse psychological health than men, and were also more often diagnosed with mental disorders. Having a partner had a protective impact, while providing intensive care to a dependent relative exerted the opposite effect. Education acted as buffer against the onset of psychological distress in women.

CONCLUSION

Even though the need for mental healthcare increased during the recession, the fact that fewer people were diagnosed suggests that barriers to accessing mental healthcare may be aggravated during the crisis. Policies aiming to tackle the challenges posed by the high prevalence of mental disorders have to be particularly attentive to changes in individuals' socioeconomic situation, including education, unemployment and social class.

Fracking and risky behaviors: Evidence from Pennsylvania

In the past decade, the technological developments in the oil and natural gas extraction industry made the extraction of shale gas economically feasible and prompted local economic booms across the US. Anecdotal evidence suggests that areas with unconventional gas development experience a disproportionate increase in the young male population who are more likely to be involved in risk-taking behavior. Moreover, the sudden income gains or demographic shifts might increase the demand for various goods and services, including entertainment and illegal activities provided by the adult entertainment industry. We investigate the relationship between unconventional gas development and a variety of risk-taking outcomes such as sexually transmitted infections, and prostitution-related arrests. Our identification strategy exploits the variation in shale gas or unconventional well drilling across time and counties in conjecture with a number of datasets that allow us to investigate the potential mechanisms. Our findings indicate that Pennsylvania counties with fracking activities have higher rates of gonorrhea and chlamydia infections (7.8% and 2.6%, respectively), as well as higher prostitution related arrests (19.7%). We posit that changes in the labor market and associated impacts to income or composition of workers may play a role in the estimated effects, but we do not find evidence in support of these hypotheses.

The effect of unemployment insurance on alcohol use and abuse following job loss

We investigate whether unemployment insurance (UI) policy affects the drinking behavior of the unemployed. Using NLSY data supplemented with Geocode data, we estimate the effect of benefit replacement rates on changes in individual alcohol consumption following job loss. Identification relies on variation in replacement rates across states and over time. Results indicate that a 100% increase in benefit replacement rate, roughly equivalent to a state moving from the lowest to the highest replacement rate, would, on average, result in unemployed individuals consuming 19.1 additional drinks a month. Looking at the change in an individual's binge drinking upon job loss, individuals receiving the highest level of benefits are 14.7% more likely to increase their binge drinking than those receiving the least generous benefits. We find that individuals' responsiveness to changes in replacement rates vary based on drinking history, industry labor market conditions, education, and age.

Health and health inequality during the great recession: Evidence from the PSID

We estimate the impact of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 on health outcomes in the United States. We show that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate resulted in a 7.8-8.8% increase in reports of poor health. In addition, mental health was adversely impacted. These effects were concentrated among those with strong labor force attachments. Whites, the less educated, and women were the most impacted demographic groups.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp).