Studying the impact of the Eurozone's Great Recession on health: Methodological choices and challenges

Health status and the Great Recession. Evidence from electronic health records

We investigate the impact of the Great Recession in Italy on the incidence of chronic diseases using new individual longitudinal data from Electronic Health Records. We exploit the exogenous shock in the economic conditions occurred in 2008 to estimate heterogeneous effects of an unprecedented rise in local unemployment rates in an individual fixed-effects model. Our results document that harsh economic downturns have a negative long-lasting effect on cardiovascular disease and a temporary effect on depression. This effect is heterogeneous across gender, increases with age and is stronger right before the retirement age. An important policy recommendation emerging from this study is that prolonged economic downturns constitute an additional external risk for individual health and not a temporary benefit.

Economic change and population health: lessons learnt from an umbrella review on the Great Recession

OBJECTIVES

Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the sharpest economic downturn since the Great Recession. To prepare for future crises and to preserve public health, we conduct an overview of systematic reviews to examine the evidence on the effect of the Great Recession on population health.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses focusing specifically on the impact of the Great Recession on population health (eg, mental health). Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed throughout this review and critical appraisal of included systematic reviews was performed using Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies were identified and consistently showed that the Great Recession was most risky to health, the more a country's economy was affected and the longer strict austerity policies were in place. Consequently, a deterioration of health was highest in countries that had implemented strict austerity measures (eg, Greece), but not in countries that rejected austerity measures (eg, Germany). Moreover, the impact of the Great Recession fell disproportionately on the most vulnerable groups such as people in unemployment, at risk of unemployment and those living in poverty.

CONCLUSIONS

The experiences of the last economic crisis show that it is possible to limit the consequences for health. Prioritising mental healthcare and prevention, foregoing austerity measures in the healthcare system and protecting vulnerable groups are the most important lessons learnt. Moreover, given the further aggravating social inequalities, a health in all policies approach, based on a comprehensive Health Impact Assessment, is advised.

The unequal effects of austerity measures between income-groups on the access to healthcare: a quasi-experimental approach

BACKGROUND

The Great Recession, starting in 2008, was characterized by an overall reduction in living standards. This pushed several governments across Europe to restrict expenditures, also in the area of healthcare. These austerity measures are known to have affected access to healthcare, probably unevenly among social groups. This study examines the unequal effects of retrenchment in healthcare expenditures on access to medical care for different income groups across European countries.

METHOD

Using data of two waves (2008 and 2014) of the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions survey (EU-SILC), a difference-in-differences (DD) approach was used to analyse the overall change in unmet medical needs over time within and between countries. By adding another interaction, the differences in the effects between income quintiles (difference-in-difference-in-differences: DDD) were estimated. To do so, comparisons between two pairs of a treatment and a control case were made: Iceland versus Sweden, and Ireland versus the United Kingdom. These comparisons are made between countries with recessions equal in magnitude, but with different levels of healthcare cuts. This strategy allows isolating the effect of cuts, net of the severity of the recession.

RESULTS

The DD-estimates show a higher increase of unmet medical needs during the Great Recession in the treatment cases (Iceland vs. Sweden: + 3.24 pp.; Ireland vs. the United Kingdom: + 1.15 pp). The DDD-estimates show different results over the two models. In Iceland, the lowest income groups had a higher increase in unmet medical needs. This was not the case in Ireland, where middle-class groups saw their access to healthcare deteriorate more.

CONCLUSION

Restrictions on health expenditures during the Great Recession caused an increase in self-reported unmet medical needs. The burden of these effects is not equally distributed; in some cases, the lower-income groups suffer most. The case of Ireland, nevertheless, shows that certain policy measures may relatively spare lower-income groups while affecting middle-class income groups more. These results bring in evidence that policies can reduce and even overshoot the general effect of income inequalities on access to healthcare.

The health of Italians before and after the economic crisis of 2008

This article examines the relationship between the financial crisis of 2008 and the health of Italians using aggregate and individual health indicators in correlation with the socioeconomic changes which have occurred in the Italian population. First, the study contextualises the changes referring to some important health indicators (life expectancy, death and suicide rates). Then, the main hypothesis on the relation between worsened individual health conditions and socioeconomic deterioration is tested. For this purpose, individual data from 2005 to 2013 stemming from Health Condition and Use of Health Services surveys (Italian National Institute of Statistics) are analysed. The results show that the social categories most severely affected by the crisis, in both employment and economic terms, were basically the same as those that experienced a worsening of their physical and psychological health conditions. These categories of people have a low level of educational attainment, live in southern and insular regions and are most often men.

Suicide mortality in Spain (1984-2018): age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects of age, period and cohort suicide mortality trend in Spain (1984-2018).

METHODS

Mortality and population data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics. The analysis of the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort on the evolution of suicide mortality in the period 1984-2018 was performed using a web tool for age-period-cohort analysis provided by the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics of the National Cancer Institute of the USA.

RESULTS

Rates increase with age (age effect) in both sexes. The period effect shows, in males, an increase over the period 1984-1998 followed by a significant decrease until 2018. In females, rates remain stable over the period 1987-2002, decrease during 2007-2012 (p < 0.05) and eventually stabilise. In both males and females, the risk decreases in each successive birth cohort between 1904 and 1939. Subsequently, the risks increase until the birth cohort of the period 1964-1974 after which the risk decreases for males and remains stable for females.

CONCLUSION

A better understanding of the effects of the birth cohort could open new doors in suicide prevention.

Assessing health outcomes in the aftermath of the great recession: a comparison of Spain and the Netherlands

Background

Across time and space, financial security has been shown to impact health outcomes, with the acute loss of financial security being particularly detrimental. We compare financial security’s association with health in Spain and the Netherlands. These countries respectively exemplify low and high levels of financial security, general trends that have been exacerbated by the Great Recession of the 2010s.

Methods

We exploit the Spanish (n = 1001) and Dutch (n = 1010) editions of the European Social Survey 7, conducted in 2014, and condense relevant financial security- and health-related survey questions into latent variables using factor analyses. Using the component loadings as quasi-weightings, we generate one financial security variable and three health variables (mental, physical and social). Then, we run ordinary least squares regressions interacting financial security and nationality, for each of the three health outcomes.

Results

In unadjusted models, we find that financial security (p < 0.01) is positively associated with the three health outcomes, while being Spanish relative to being Dutch (p < 0.01) is associated with worse health outcomes. However, the results of the interaction term show that being Spanish relative to being Dutch weakens the relationship between physical health and social health, although not mental health.

Conclusions

We find evidence that financial security’s influence on health outcomes may vary in different contexts. This may be an important aspect of determining the Great Recession’s influence on health outcomes. Our study is a first step in understanding how the relationships between financial security and health may differ in countries with different experiences of the Great Recession.