Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Ultrasound-based Radiomics Analysis for Assessing Risk Factors Associated With Early Recurrence Following Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to explore the value of ultrasound-based radiomics analysis for early recurrence after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 127 patients who underwent primary surgical resection for HCC between October 2019 and November 2021. The patients were subsequently divided into training and validation sets (7:3 ratio). All patients received preoperative routine ultrasound and contrast-enhanced ultrasound examination, with postoperative pathological confirmation of HCC. Radiomics features were extracted from maximum section of a two-dimensional ultrasound image. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operation logistic regression algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation was used to establish ultrasonic radiomics features. Logistic regression modelling was used to build models based on clinical and ultrasonic features (model 1, clinical-ultrasonic model), radiomics signature (model 2, ultrasonic radiomics model), and the combination (model 3, clinical-ultrasonic-radiomics model). Then, a nomogram model was established to predict the risk of early recurrence, and the application value of nomogram through internal verification was evaluated.

RESULTS

Model 3 showed optimal diagnostic performance in both training set (area under the curve [AUC], 0.907) and validation set (AUC, 0.925), followed by the model 1 in training set (AUC, 0.846) and validation set (AUC, 0.855), both above two models performed better than model 2 in training set (AUC, 0.751) and validation set (AUC, 0.702) (p < 0.05). In the training set and validation set of model 3, the sensitivity were 83.3%, 77.8%, the specificity ware 95.8%, 100.0% and the C-index were 0.791, 0.778.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative clinical-ultrasonic-radiomics model is anticipated to be a reliable tool for predicting the early recurrence of surgical resection of HCC.

The impacts of physical factors on huge hepatocellular carcinoma treated by transarterial chemoembolization combined with radiotherapy

Aims: To assess the influence of various physical factors on the outcome of transarterial chemoembolization combined with γ-ray hypofractionated radiation therapy (TACE-γHRT) for unresectable huge (≥10 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (UH-HCC) patients.Materials & methods: A total of 162 UH-HCC patients with different tumor locations treated with TACE-γHRT and a retrospective analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of selected physical parameters on clinical outcomes.Results: The selected physical factors influenced the clinical outcomes significantly. No adverse events exceeding grade 3 were observed in the enrolled patients.Conclusion: Higher P70 and marginal dose, smaller tumor size and tumor location of neither skin nor gastrointestinal tracts involved were independent predictors for better overall survival and progression free survival.

Dynamic Changes of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Predicting Response of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Plus Targeted Therapies for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Backgrounds and Aims

Multiple regimens of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) plus targeted therapies are commonly prescribed as first-line treatments for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). Here, we aimed to investigate the correlation between dynamic changes of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and tumor response to the combination of ICIs and targeted therapies for uHCC.

Methods

Sixty-one patients who received ICIs plus targeted therapies for uHCC were enrolled in this retrospective study. The NLR before and at 3-6 weeks after treatments were assessed to calculate the dynamic NLR changes (ΔNLR). Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression models were used to explore the relationship between dynamic NLR changes and tumor response or progression-free survival (PFS), respectively. Furthermore, we assessed the predictive effect of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) changes in combination with dynamic NLR changes compared to AFP changes alone.

Results

The NLR at 3-6 weeks and ΔNLR after treatments significantly increased in patients who underwent progressive disease (PD), while the baseline NLR showed no significant difference between different tumor responses. Increased NLR and AFP after treatments were both independent predictors of PD (For NLR increase: OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.47-3.88, P < 0.001; For AFP increase: OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.03-2.17, P = 0.043), and correlated with worse PFS (for NLR increase: HR, 4.08; 95% CI, 1.99-8.36, P < 0.001; for AFP increase: HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.04-4.24, P = 0.039). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and net reclassification index (NRI) showed that the combination of dynamic NLR and AFP changes was better than AFP changes alone on predicting PD (AUC: 0.83 vs 0.68, P = 0.034; NRI: 0.340, P = 0.048) and PFS (AUC: 0.80 vs 0.70, P = 0.166; NRI: 0.431, P = 0.042).

Conclusion

Dynamic changes of NLR might be an effective predictor of the therapeutic response to ICIs plus targeted therapies for uHCC.

Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization Plus Immunotherapy for Huge Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matching Cohort Study

Purpose

The prognosis of patients with huge hepatocellular carcinoma (huge HCC, diameter ≥10 cm) is poor owing to the high early recurrence rate. This study aimed to explore the clinical value of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) plus programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) inhibitors for huge HCC.

Patients and Methods

Data from consecutive huge HCC patients treated with hepatectomy during June 2017 and July 2022 were retrospectively collected. Baseline differences were balanced between huge HCC patients who underwent PA-TACE with (AIT group) or without PD-1 inhibitors (AT group) by propensity-score matching (PSM). We compared recurrence-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS) and recurrence patterns between the two groups. Independent risk factors for RFS and OS were confirmed by Cox regression analysis, and subgroup analysis was also conducted.

Results

A total of 294 patients were enrolled, and 77 pairs of patients in the AIT and AT groups were matched by PSM. The 1-year and 2-year RFS were 49.9% and 35.7% in the AIT group compared to 24.7% and 15.5% in the AT group respectively (p<0.001). The 1-year and 2-year OS were 83.6% and 66.9% in the AIT group compared to 50.6% and 36.8% in the AT group respectively (p<0.001). There were no significant differences in recurrence patterns between the two groups. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that combined therapy of PA-TACE plus PD-1 inhibitors was a protective factor related to both RFS and OS.

Conclusion

PA-TACE plus PD-1 inhibitors could improve survival outcomes for huge HCC patients.

Interactive model for predicting the oncological outcome of patients with early-stage huge hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy: a multicenter population-based study

An interactive model for predicting the oncological outcome of patients with early-stage huge hepatocellular carcinoma (ES-HHCC) after hepatectomy is still lacking. This study was aimed at exploring the independent risk parameters and developing an interactive model for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of ES-HHCC. Data from patients with ES-HHCC who underwent hepatectomy were collected. The dimensionality of the clinical features was reduced by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and further screened as predictors of CSS by Cox regression. Then, an interactive prediction model was developed and validated. Among the 514 screened patients, 311 and 203 of them were assigned into the training and validation cohort, respectively. Six independent variables, including alpha-fetoprotein, cirrhosis, microvascular invasion, satellite, tumor morphology, and tumor diameter, were identified and incorporated into the prediction model for CSS. The model achieved C-indices of 0.724 and 0.711 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves showed general consistency in both cohorts. Compared with single predictor, the model had a better performance and greater benefit according to the time-independent receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis (P < 0.05). The calculator owned satisfactory accuracy and flexible operability for predicting the CSS of ES-HHCC, which could serve as a practical tool to stratify patients with different risks, and guide decision-making.

Advanced lung cancer inflammation index predicts overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

Aim

Limited data are available regarding ALI's clinical relevance and prognostic value in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy.

Materials and methods

HCC patients who received hepatectomy at the Meizhou People's Hospital from May 2011 to February 2022 were enrolled in the study cohort. The ALI was calculated as follows: ALI = BMI (kg/m2) × ALB (g/dL)/(absolute neutrophil count/absolute lymphocyte count). The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). The secondary outcome was cancer-specific survival (CSS). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed, followed by nomogram construction and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

425 HCC patients were enrolled for analyses. Lower preoperative ALI was significantly correlated with incomplete tumor capsule and advanced tumor stage. Lower preoperative ALI was an adverse independent prognostic factor for OS (HR: 1.512, 95% CI: 1.122-2.039, P 0.007) and CSS (HR: 1.754, 95% CI: 1.262-2.438, P <0.001) in HCC patients. The nomogram plot was built based on three (including age, TNM stage, and ALI) and two (including TNM stage and ALI) independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS, respectively. Further analyses indicated that the nomogram had better predictive value and some net benefit than the traditional TNM stage alone, especially in long-term OS.

Conclusions

Our study further indicated that ALI could be a prognostic marker for OS and CSS in HCC patients after hepatectomy, especially in long-term OS.

Short-term and long-term outcomes after robotic versus open hepatectomy in patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Robotic hepatectomy (RH) is currently widely accepted and it is associated with some benefits when compared to open hepatectomy (OH). However, whether such benefits can still be achieved for patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the short-term and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing RH or OH.

METHODS

Perioperative and survival data from patients with large HCC who underwent RH or OH between January 2010 and December 2020 were collected from eight centres. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimise potential biases.

RESULTS

Using predefined inclusion criteria, 797 patients who underwent OH and 309 patients who underwent RH were enroled in this study. After PSM, 280 patients in the robotic group had shorter operative time (median 181 vs. 201 min, P <0.001), lower estimated blood loss (median 200 vs. 400 ml, P <0.001), and shorter postoperative length of stay (median 6 vs. 9 days, P <0.001) than 465 patients in the open group. There were no significant differences between the two groups in overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Cox analysis showed AFP greater than 400 ng/ml, tumour size greater than 10 cm, and microvascular invasion were independent risk factors for overall survival and recurrence-free survival. After PSM, subgroup analysis showed that patients with a huge HCC (diameter >10 cm) who underwent RH had significantly lower estimated blood loss (median 200.0 vs. 500.0 min, P <0.001), and shorter length of stay (median 7 vs. 10 days, P <0.001) than those who underwent OH.

CONCLUSION

Safety and feasibility of RH and OH for patients with large HCC were comparable. RH resulted in similar long-term survival outcomes as OH.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Preoperative Serum Prealbumin

Purpose

We aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram utilizing preoperative serum prealbumin levels to predict the overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Patients and Methods

A total of 768 individuals with unresectable HCC who underwent TACE at three medical facilities in Suzhou between January 2007 December 2018 were included. The patient cohort was assigned to a training set (n = 461) and a validation set (n = 307). Cox regression analysis identified independent prognostic factors, which were then used to construct a prognostic nomogram. Internal validation was performed in the testing group, and its effectiveness and capability were evaluated with reference to the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Independent risk factors identified through Cox regression analyses included the BCLC stage, cirrhosis, invasion, tumor number, preoperative serum PALB, performance status (PS), and tumor size. The nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.734 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.710-0.758) in the training set and 0.717 (95% CI: 0.678-0.756) in the validation set, indicating strong discriminatory ability. The nomogram also demonstrated favorable discriminatory performance with AUC values of 0.873, 0.820, and 0.833 for 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS, respectively, in the training set, and 0.854, 0.765, and 0.724 in the validation set. The AUC value of the nomogram (0.843) was significantly higher than that of the four conventional staging systems. Moreover, calibration graphs confirmed a strong concordance between the predicted and observed results. Furthermore, DCA underscored the significant clinical utility of the nomogram. Additionally, the low-risk group exhibited considerably superior rates of survival compared to the high-risk group.

Conclusion

The developed nomogram demonstrated excellent prognostic capability, which served as a valuable tool for personalized clinical decision-making for patients with HCC.

Preoperative transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) + liver resection versus upfront liver resection for large hepatocellular carcinoma (≥5 cm): a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for majority of primary liver cancer. Use of preoperative neoadjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PN-TACE) may result in tumor shrinkage and improve resectability. This study aims to summarize the outcomes of PN-TACE versus upfront liver resection (Up-LR) in large HCC (≥5 cm).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and Scopus were systematically searched till September 2022 for studies comparing PN-TACE versus Up-LR. The primary study outcomes were overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and recurrence. Our secondary outcomes were postoperative morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

There were 12 studies with 15 data sets including 3960 patients (PN-TACE n = 2447, Up-LR n = 1513). Majority (89.5%, n = 1250/1397) of patients had Child's A liver cirrhosis. Incidence of Child's B cirrhosis was higher in PN-TACE compared to Up-LR (Odds ratio (OR) 1.69, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.41, p = 0.004). Pooled hazard ratio (HR) for OS showed no significant difference between PN-TACE and Up-LR (HR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.64, 1.18, p = 0.37), but DFS was superior in PN-TACE (HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.99, p = 0.04). Subgroup analysis based on study design failed to show any significant effect in randomized controlled trials (n = 2/15 data sets). However, operating time (mean difference (MD) 31.94 min, 95% CI: 2.42, 61.45, p = 0.03) and blood loss (MD 190.93 ml, 95% CI: 10.22, 317.65, p = 0.04) were higher in PN-TACE. Intrahepatic and extrahepatic recurrence, post-operative morbidity and in-hospital mortality were comparable between PN-TACE and Up-LR.

CONCLUSION

In retrospective studies, PN-TACE resulted in superior DFS compared to Up-LR. However, this may be confounded by selection bias.

Development and validation of the OSASH score to predict overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection: a dual-institutional study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk score based on preoperative clinical-radiological parameters for predicting overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

From July 2010 to December 2021, consecutive patients with surgically-proven HCC who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI were retrospectively enrolled. A preoperative OS risk score was constructed in the training cohort using a Cox regression model and validated in a propensity score-matched internal validation cohort and an external validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 520 patients were enrolled, among whom 210, 210, and 100 patients were from the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Independent predictors for OS included incomplete tumor "capsule," mosaic architecture, tumor multiplicity, and serum alpha-fetoprotein, which were incorporated into the "OSASH score." The C-index the OSASH score was 0.85, 0.81, and 0.62 in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Using 32 as the cutoff point, the OSASH score stratified patients into prognostically distinct low- and high-risk groups among all study cohorts and six subgroups (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, patients with BCLC stage B-C HCC and OSASH-low risk achieved comparable OS to that of patients with BCLC stage 0-A HCC and OSASH-high risk in the internal validation cohort (5-year OS rates, 74.7 vs. 77.8%; p = 0.964).

CONCLUSION

The OSASH score may help predict OS in HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy and identify potential surgical candidates among those with BCLC stage B-C HCC.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

By incorporating three preoperative MRI features and serum AFP, the OSASH score may help predict postsurgical overall survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and identify potential surgical candidates among those with BCLC stage B and C HCC.

KEY POINTS

• The OSASH score incorporating three MRI features and serum AFP can be used to predict OS in HCC patients who received curative-intent hepatectomy. • The score stratified patients into prognostically distinct low- and high-risk strata in all study cohorts and six subgroups. • Among patients with BCLC stage B and C HCC, the score identified a subgroup of low-risk patients who achieved favorable outcomes after surgery.

Assessing textbook outcome after single large hepatocellular carcinoma resection

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the impact and predictors of an ideal surgical care following SLHCC resection.

METHODS

SLHCC patients who underwent LR in two tertiary hepatobiliary centers between 2000 and 2021 were retrieved from prospectively maintained databases. The quality of surgical care was measured by the textbook outcome (TO). Tumor burden was defined by the tumor burden score (TBS). Factors associated with TO were determined on multivariate analysis. The impact of TO on oncological outcomes was assessed using Cox regressions.

RESULTS

Overall, 103 SLHCC patients were included. Laparoscopic approach was considered in 65 (63.1%) patients and 79 (76.7%) patients presented with moderate TBS. TO was achieved in 54 (52.4%) patients. Laparoscopic approach was independently associated with TO (OR 2.57; 95% CI 1.03-6.64; p = 0.045). Within 19 (6-38) months of median follow up, patients who achieved TO had better OS compared to non-TO patients (1-year OS: 91.7% vs. 66.9%; 5-year OS: 83.4% vs. 37.0%, p < 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, TO was independently associated with improved OS, especially in non-cirrhotic patients (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.02-0.52, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

TO achievement could be a relevant surrogate marker of improved oncological care following SLHCC resection in non-cirrhotic patients.

In-stent restenosis after vertebral artery origin stenosis stenting: a nomogram for risk assessment

OBJECTIVE

To propose a nomogram for individual risk assessment of in-stent restenosis (ISR) after vertebral artery origin stenosis (VAOS) stenting.

METHODS

We included 793 patients with VAOS treated with stenting from October 2006 to May 2013, with a median follow-up of 27.8 months. Cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were adopted for variable selection. The nomogram was formulated and validated by concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration curves. An in-stent restenosis risk table (ISR-RT) was subsequently generated for risk stratification. Differences between low-, intermediate-, and high-risk levels were shown by Kaplan-Meier curves and compared by log-rank test.

RESULTS

The training and validation set included 594 and 199 patients, with a mean ISR rate of 37.2% and 35.2%, respectively. Stent type (HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.14), stent diameter (HR=2.48, 95% CI 1.77 to 3.48), history of peripheral vascular disease (HR=2.17, 95% CI 1.17 to 4.00), history of transit ischemic attack (HR=1.45, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.14), and left-side involvement (HR=1.33, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.69) were included in the nomogram. The C-indexes at 6 and 12 months were 0.650 and 0.611 in the training set, and 0.713 and 0.603 in the validation set, respectively. Compared with low-risk patients, the intermediate- and high-level group had 1.46 (95% CI 1.05 to 2.04; p=0.0235) and 2.28 (95% CI 1.64 to 3.17; p<0.0001) higher chances of developing ISR in 2 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram and a risk evaluation table were developed with good predictive ability for in-stent restenosis among patients with VAOS, which could serve as a practical approach for individualized risk evaluation.

Development of preoperative and postoperative machine learning models to predict the recurrence of huge hepatocellular carcinoma following surgical resection

Resection has been commonly utilized for treating huge hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a diameter of ≥10 cm; however, a high rate of mortality is reported due to recurrence. The present study was designed to predict the recurrence following resection based on preoperative and postoperative machine learning models. In total, 1,082 patients with HCC who underwent liver resection in the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort between January 2008 and December 2016 were divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 164 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohort between January 2014 and December 2016 served as an external validation cohort. The demographic information, and serological, MRI, and pathological data were obtained from each patient prior to and following surgery, followed by evaluating the model performance using the concordance index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, prediction error cures, and a calibration curve. A preoperative random survival forest (RSF) model and a postoperative RSF model were constructed based on the training set, which outperformed the conventional models, such as the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC 8th) staging systems, and the Chinese stage systems. In addition, the preoperative and postoperative RSF models could also re-stratify patients with BCLC stage A/B/C or AJCC 8th stage IB/II/IIIA/IIIB or Chinese stage IB/IIA/IIB/IIIA into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups in the training and the two validation cohorts. The preoperative and postoperative RSF models were effective for predicting recurrence in patients with huge HCC following hepatectomy.

Inflammation-related nomogram for predicting survival of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma received conversion therapy

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of conversion therapy for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common clinical concern.

AIM

To analyse the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable HCC who received conversion therapy.

METHODS

One hundred and fifty patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 120) and a validation cohort (n = 30). Using the independent risk factors in the training cohort, a nomogram model was constructed to predict OS for patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization following hepatic resection. The nomogram was internally validated with the bootstrapping method. The predictive performance of nomogram was assessed by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and compared with six other conventional HCC staging systems.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox analysis identified that albumin, blood urea nitrogen, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, macrovascular invasion and tumour number were the six independent prognostic factors correlated with OS in nomogram model. The C-index in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.752 and 0.807 for predicting OS, which were higher than those of the six conventional HCC staging systems (0.563 to 0.715 for the training cohort and 0.458 to 0.571 for the validation cohort). The calibration plots showed good consistency between the nomogram prediction of OS and the actual observations of OS. Decision curve analyses indicated satisfactory clinical utility. With a total nomogram score of 196, patients were accurately classified into low-risk and high-risk groups. Furthermore, we have deployed the model into online calculators that can be accessed for free at https://ctmodelforunresectablehcc.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram achieved optimal individualized prognostication of OS in HCC patients who received conversion therapy, which could be a useful clinical tool to help guide postoperative personalized interventions and prognosis judgement.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on PIVKA-II and Serum Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to develop an improved diagnostic and prognostic model for HBV-associated HCC by combining AFP with PIVKA-II and other potential serum/plasma protein biomarkers.

METHODS

A total of 578 patients, including 352 patients with HBV-related HCC, 102 patients with HBV-associated liver cirrhosis (LC), 124 patients with chronic HBV, and 127 healthy subjects (HS), were enrolled in the study. The serum levels of AFP, PIVKA-II, and other laboratory parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent diagnostic and prognostic factors, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis and the prognostic performance was measured by Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

AFP and PIVKA-II levels were significantly increased in HBV-related HCC, compared with those in HBV-associated LC and chronic HBV participants (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). The diagnostic nomogram, which included age, gender, AFP, PIVKA-II, prothrombin time (PT), and total protein (TP), discriminated patients with HBV-HCC from those with HBV-LC or chronic HBV with an AUC of 0.970. In addition, based on the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, PIVKA-II, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, and albumin were found to be significantly associated with the prognosis of HBV-related HCC and were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting 3-year survival in the training and validation groups was 0.75 and 0.78, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of 3-year OS showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation in the training and the validation groups. Furthermore, the nomogram had a higher C-index (0.74) than that of the Child-Pugh grade (0.62), the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score (0.64), and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (0.56) in all follow-up cases.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the nomograms based on AFP, PIVKA-II, and potential serum protein biomarkers showed a better performance in the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC, which may help to guide therapeutic strategies and assess the prognosis of HCC.

Prognostic Analysis of Single Large Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Radical Resection: A Single-Center Study

Objective

To investigate the survival and independent prognostic factors for single large hepatocellular carcinoma (SLHCC) after surgical resection.

Methods

Patients with SLHCC who underwent radical resection from January 2013 to December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the overall survival (OS) rate and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates. Cox forward stepwise regression was performed to analyze the independent prognostic factors.

Results

A total of 485 cases were included. The average age was 51.2±11.2 years, 88.9% had a history of hepatitis B virus infection, and most patients had normal liver function. The average tumor diameter was 8.8±3.0 cm. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and RFS rates were 76.8%, 56.7%, and 45.7%, and 61.0%, 46.2%, and 34.7%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that liver cirrhosis (HR=1.456, P=0.004), total bilirubin (TB) ≥17.1 μmol/L (HR=1.437, P=0.011), glutamyl transferase (GGT) >60 U/L (HR=1.438, P=0.020), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >225 U/L (HR=1.442, P=0.007), blood loss ≥400 mL (HR=1.339, P=0.027), microvascular invasion (MVI) (HR=1.492, P=0.004), satellite lesions (HR=1.859, P<0.0001) and Edmondson-Steiner grade III+IV (HR=1.740, P=0.018) were independent risk factors for reduced OS in SLHCC patients. Sex (HR=1.763, P=0.003), liver cirrhosis (HR=1.382, P=0.007), GGT >60 U/L (HR=1.512, P=0.003), LDH >225 U/L (HR=1.480, P=0.002), MVI (HR=1.545, P=0.001), and satellite lesions (HR=1.564, P=0.001) were independent risk factors for reduced RFS. OS and RFS nomograms were constructed using risk factors with C-index values of 0.692 (95% CI: 0.659-0.724) and 0.659 (95% CI: 0.623-0.693), respectively. The Hosmer-Leme test demonstrated the good fit of both nomograms.

Conclusion

Surgical resection is the standard and effective treatment for SLHCC patients. Sex, liver cirrhosis, TB≥17.1 μmol/L, GGT>60 U/L, LDH>225 U/L, blood loss≥400 mL, MVI, Edmondson-Steiner grade III+IV, and satellite lesions were found to be independent prognostic factors in SLHCC patients following radical resection. The OS and RFS nomograms accurately predicted the prognosis of SLHCC patients.

Nomogram for prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer after minimally invasive esophagectomy established based on non-textbook outcome

BACKGROUND

Non-textbook outcome (non-TO) represents a new prognostic evaluation index for surgical oncology. The present study aimed to develop new nomograms based on non-TO to predict the mortality and recurrence rate in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) after minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE).

METHODS

The study involved a retrospective analysis of 613 ESCC patients, from the prospectively maintained database from January 2011 to December 2018. All the included ESCC patients underwent MIE, and they were randomly (1:1) assigned to the training cohort (307 patients) and the validation cohort (306 patients). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyze the differences recorded between overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). In the case of the training cohort, the nomograms based on non-TO were developed using Cox regression, and the performance of these nomograms was calibrated and evaluated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Significant differences were recorded for 5-year OS and DFS between non-TO and TO groups (p < 0.05). Multivariate cox analysis revealed that non-TO, intraoperative bleeding, T stage, and N stage acted as independent risk factors that affected OS and DFS (p < 0.05). The results for multivariate regression were used to build non-TO-based nomograms to predict OS and DFS of patients with ESCC, the t-AUC curve analysis showed that the nomograms predicting OS and DFS were more accurate as compared to TNM staging, during the follow-up period in the training cohort and validation cohort. Further, the nomogram score was used to divide ESCC patients into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups and significant differences were recorded for OS and DFS between these three groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-TO was identified as an independent prognostic factor for ESCC patients. The nomograms based on non-TO could availably predict OS and DFS in ESCC patients after MIE.

An mALBI-Child-Pugh-based nomogram for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure grade B-C in patients with huge hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional study

Objective

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a severe complication in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent hepatectomy. This study aims to develop a nomogram of PHLF grade B–C in patients with huge HCC (diameter ≥ 10 cm).

Methods

We retrospectively collected clinical information of 514 and 97 patients who underwent hepatectomy for huge HCC at two medical centers between 2016 and 2021. Univariate and multivariate analysis were carried out to screen the independent risk factors of PHLF grade B–C, which were visualized as a nomogram.

Results

Three Hundred Forty Three Thousand One Hundred Seventy One  and 97 HCC patients were included in the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort, with probabilities of PHLF grade B–C of 15.1%, 12.9%, and 22.7%, respectively. Pre-operative modified albumin-bilirubin (mALBI) grade (p < 0.001), Child–Pugh classification (p = 0.044), international normalized ratio (INR) (p = 0.005), cirrhosis (p = 0.019), and intraoperative blood loss (p = 0.004) were found to be independently associated with PHLF grade B–C in the training cohort. All the five independent factors were considered in the establishment of the nomogram model. In the internal validation cohort and external validation cohort, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve for the nomogram in PHLF grade B–C prediction reached 0.823 and 0.740, respectively. Divided into different risk groups according to the optimal cut-off value, patients in the high-risk group reported significantly higher frequency of PHLF grade B–C than those in the low-risk group, both in the training cohort and the validation cohort (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The proposed noninvasive nomogram based on mALBI-Child–Pugh and three other indicators achieved optimal prediction performance of PHLF grade B–C in patients with huge HCC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02672-5.

Comparison of a preoperative MR-based recurrence risk score versus the postoperative score and four clinical staging systems in hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To establish a risk score integrating preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI) and clinical parameters to predict recurrence after hepatectomy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to compare its performance with that of a postoperative score and four clinical staging systems.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with surgically confirmed HCC who underwent preoperative EOB-MRI between July 2015 and November 2020 were retrospectively included. Two recurrence risk scores, one incorporating only preoperative variables and the other incorporating all preoperative and postoperative variables, were constructed via Cox regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 214 patients (derivation set, n = 150; test set, n = 64) were included. Six preoperative variables, namely tumor number, infiltrative appearance, corona enhancement, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level, and sex, were independently associated with recurrence. After adding postoperative features, microvascular invasion and tumor differentiation were additional significant variables in lieu of corona enhancement and AFP level. Using the above variables, the preoperative score achieved a C-index of 0.741 on the test set, which was comparable with that of the postoperative score (0.729; p = 0.235). The preoperative score yielded a larger time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at 1 year (0.844) than three existing systems (0.734-0.742; p < 0.05 for all). Furthermore, the preoperative score stratified patients into two prognostically distinct risk strata with low and high risks of recurrence (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The preoperative score integrating EOB-MRI features, AFP and AST levels, and sex improves recurrence risk estimation in HCC.

KEY POINTS

• The preoperative risk score incorporating three EOB-MRI findings, AFP and AST levels, and sex achieved comparable performance with that of the postoperative score for predicting recurrence after hepatectomy in patients with HCC. • Two risk strata with low and high risks of recurrence were obtained based on the preoperative score. • The preoperative score may help tailor pretreatment decision-making and facilitate candidate selection for adjuvant clinical trials.