Serial hCG and progesterone levels to predict early pregnancy outcomes in pregnancies of uncertain viability: A prospective study

Combined analysis of estradiol and β-hCG to predict the early pregnancy outcome of FET: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The accurate prediction of pregnancy outcomes in in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles is crucial. While several studies have been conducted on the predictive power of serum estradiol (E2) and β-hCG concentrations post-embryo transfer (ET) for pregnancy outcomes, there is debate on the predictive value of E2. The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive efficacy of combining serum E2 and β-hCG levels on early reproductive outcomes 12 days after embryo transfer.

METHODS

A total of 1521 patients with β-hCG positive values on day 12 following frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) with natural endometrial preparation cycles (NCs) were gathered in affiliated Women's Hospital of Jiangnan University. Using logistic regression, the relationship between pregnancy outcome and early serum E2 and β-hCG concentrations was examined. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the serum E2 and β-hCG concentrations.

RESULTS

Notable distinctions were observed in the serum E2 and β-hCG levels on the twelfth day following FET with NCs between the groups classified as clinical pregnancy group (CP Group) and biochemical pregnancy group (BP Group). In addition, the cutoff values for E2 and β-hCG on day 12 following FET with NCs in cleavage embryo group (CE Group) were 129.25 pg/mL and 156.60 mIU/mL, respectively. The threshold values for E2 and β-hCG for the blastocyst group (B Group) were 174.45 pg/mL and 217.70 mIU/mL. Serum E2 day12 and β-hCG day12 were found to be substantially linked with clinical pregnancy by logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum E2 and β-hCG concentrations were found to be significantly different between the CP Group and BP Group in infertility women underwent FET with NCs. Our retrospective cohort study's findings suggest that the combination of early E2 and β-hCG levels on day 12 post-FET could be used as a predictive tool to evaluate the likelihood of both positive and negative pregnancy outcomes in FET with NCs.

Psychological impact of simple scoring system for predicting early pregnancy outcome in pregnancy of uncertain viability: randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether psychological wellbeing of women with an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability can be modified during the waiting period to final diagnosis, by offering predictive information regarding the likely outcome of the pregnancy (chance of ongoing viability).

METHODS

This was a single-center two-arm randomized controlled trial conducted over 18 months at a teaching hospital in London, UK. Consecutive eligible women attending the early pregnancy assessment unit with an interim ultrasound finding of intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability were recruited. All women were offered a follow-up ultrasound scan after 14 days. Participants were randomized to receive a prediction score for ongoing viability at 14 days or routine care (control). Anxiety, depression and worry symptoms were assessed using validated self-report questionnaires (hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), Penn state worry questionnaire (PSWQ)) prior to randomization and at two further timepoints during the waiting period preceding final diagnosis. The change in psychological scores over the study period was analyzed. The secondary outcome was the perceived value of the risk prediction tool reported by participants.

RESULTS

A total of 278 women participated in this study. After adjusting for baseline scores, no difference in anxiety, depression or worry scores was demonstrated between control and intervention groups at either timepoint. Subgroup analysis, first of women with high initial anxiety (HADS > 11) or worry (PSWQ ≥ 45), and second of women with a more favorable predicted prognosis (≥ 75% chance of ongoing viability), demonstrated no difference between intervention and control groups. Despite this, 76/110 (69.1% (95% CI, 60.5-78.4%)) women who provided feedback in the intervention group found it to be helpful and 97/110 (88.2% (95% CI, 81.0-93.7%)) reported that they would use the tool again.

CONCLUSION

Current prediction tools may be useful for healthcare professionals to guide management and optimize utilization of early pregnancy resources. However, in this study, implementation of an accurate tool did not result in an objective measurable benefit to patients in terms of reduction in anxiety, depression and worry symptoms experienced during the waiting period to final outcome compared with women who did not receive a prediction score. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal circulating exosomal miR-185-5p levels as a predictive biomarker in patients with recurrent pregnancy loss

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to explore the predictive role of microRNAs (miRNAs) from maternal serum exosomes in early recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) and the related mechanism in early pregnancy.

METHODS

Maternal serum was collected from pregnant women with RPL history or women with ongoing pregnancy (OP); serum exosomes were extracted and identified. Differentially expressed (DE) miRNAs in exosomes were screened by RNA sequencing and further validated by qRT-PCR. Next, the predictive value of exosomal miRNA and the clinical indicators for subsequent miscarriage in RPL patients were evaluated. Additionally, we verified the regulatory relationship between miR-185-5p and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in decidual natural killer (dNK) cells by overloading or inhibiting the exosomal miR-185-5p level in trophoblast cells.

RESULTS

The miRNA sequencing revealed 43 DE miRNAs between OP and RPL patients. The five most significant DE miRNAs (miR-22-3p, miR-185-5p, miR-335-3p, miR-362-5p, and miR-378a-3p) were selected for identification, and miR-185-5p was increased in RPL patients. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.925 when using miR-185-5p as a biomarker for subsequent miscarriage in RPL patients. In addition, miR-185-5p in exosomes secreted from HTR-8 cells reduces VEGF expression of dNK cells.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study, for the first time, successfully constructed the correlation between maternal circulating exosomal miR-185-5p expression pattern and RPL, which may be involved in the pathogenesis of RPL by downregulating the VEGFA of dNK cells and perturbing angiogenesis at the maternal-fetal interface.

Prediction model for missed abortion of patients treated with IVF-ET based on XGBoost: a retrospective study

Aim

In this study, we established a model based on XGBoost to predict the risk of missed abortion in patients treated with in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET), evaluated its prediction ability, and compared the model with the traditional logical regression model.

Methods

We retrospectively collected the clinical data of 1,017 infertile women treated with IVF-ET. The independent risk factors were screened by performing a univariate analysis and binary logistic regression analysis, and then, all cases were randomly divided into the training set and the test set in a 7:3 ratio for constructing and validating the model. We then constructed the prediction models by the traditional logical regression method and the XGBoost method and tested the prediction performance of the two models by resampling.

Results

The results of the binary logistic regression analysis showed that several factors, including the age of men and women, abnormal ovarian structure, prolactin (PRL), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), anticardiolipin antibody (ACA), and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab), independently influenced missed abortion significantly (P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) score and the F1 score with the training set of the XGBoost model (0.877 ± 0.014 and 0.730 ± 0.019, respectively) were significantly higher than those of the logistic model (0.713 ± 0.013 and 0.568 ± 0.026, respectively). In the test set, the AUC and F1 scores of the XGBoost model (0.759 ± 0.023 and 0.566 ± 0.042, respectively) were also higher than those of the logistic model (0.695 ± 0.030 and 0.550 ± 049, respectively).

Conclusions

We established a prediction model based on the XGBoost algorithm, which can accurately predict the risk of missed abortion in patients with IVF-ET. This model performed better than the traditional logical regression model.

The Effect of Serum β-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin on Pregnancy Complications and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The relationship among elevated serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), the incidence of pregnancy complications, and adverse pregnancy outcomes has been controversial. Differences in study design, subject bias due to demographic characteristics, and differences in local medical levels could contribute to inconsistent results.

Methods

Literature searches were performed in PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, Central, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, and China Science Digital Library (CSDL) databases. Inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) research subjects were singleton pregnant women; (2) the study is identified as cohort study; (3) the subjects were assigned to the high β-hCG group and control group according to whether the exposure factors increased β-hCG in the second trimester; (4) the observed outcomes include at least pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), diabetes (gestational diabetes mellitus, GMD), preterm delivery (PD), and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR); and (5) the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of exposure factors are calculated based on literature dataset. To determine the risk bias of selected literatures, Newcastle-Ottawa scale was applied. The chi-square test was further used for heterogeneity analysis. If heterogeneity was identified, subgroup analyses were then performed for source investigation.

Results

A total of 13 literatures were included and analyzed, including 67,355 pregnant women and 5980 pregnant women assigned to the high β-HCG group and 61,375 pregnant women to the control group. The incidence of PIH in the high β-HCG group was higher than that in the control group (OR = 2.11, 95% CI [1.90, 2.35], Z = 13.85, P < 0.00001). There was no heterogeneity among literatures (χ² = 8.53, P = 0.38, I² = 6%), and thus there is no identified publication bias (P > 0.05). The incidence of preterm birth in the high β-HCG group was higher than that in the control group (OR = 2.11, 95% CI [1.90, 2.35], Z = 13.85, P < 0.00001). The analysis suggested no heterogeneity among included literatures (χ² = 11.78, P = 0.11, I² = 41%) and no publication bias (P > 0.05). Higher incidence of abortion was observed in the high β-HCG group compared with the control group (OR = 2.80, 95% CI [1.92, 4.09], Z = 5.32, P < 0.00001). There was no heterogeneity among literatures (χ² = 3.43, P = 0.33, I² = 13%) and no publication bias (P > 0.05). The incidence of gestational diabetes was higher in the high β-HCG group than in the control group (OR = 2.15, 95% CI [1.05, 4.40], Z = 2.09, P = 0.04). Heterogeneity was identified among literatures (χ² = 47.01, P < 0.00001, I² = 87%). Sensitivity analysis showed that the results were not robust, and there was no publication bias (P > 0.05). Compared with control, the incidence of IGUR was higher in the high β-HCG group (OR = 2.70, 95% CI [1.75, 4.19], Z = 4.45, P < 0.0001) with no heterogeneity among literatures (χ² = 3.92, P = 0.14, I² = 49%) and no publication bias (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

High levels of β-hCG during pregnancy in singleton women are associated with a high incidence of pregnancy complications and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Pregnant women with high levels of β-hCG should be monitored more closely, followed up, and given timely medical interventions to reduce the incidence of pregnancy complications and adverse outcomes.

Risk factors for missed abortion: retrospective analysis of a single institution's experience

OBJECTIVE

To explore the risk factors including the difference between mean gestational sac diameter and crown-rump length for missed abortion.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with missed abortion and patients with continuing pregnancy to the second trimester from Chengdu Women's and Children's Central Hospital from June 2018 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The best cut-off value for age and difference between mean gestational sac diameter and crown-rump length (mGSD-CRL) were obtained by x-tile software. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were adopted to identify the possible risk factors for missed abortion.

RESULTS

Age, gravidity, parity, history of cesarean section, history of recurrent abortion (≥ 3 spontaneous abortions), history of ectopic pregnancy and overweight or obesity (BMI > 24 kg/m²) were related to missed abortion in univariate analysis. However, only age (≥ 30 vs < 30 years: OR = 1.683, 95%CI = 1.017-2.785, P = 0.043, power = 54.4%), BMI (> 24 vs ≤ 24 kg/m²: OR = 2.073, 95%CI = 1.056-4.068, P = 0.034, power = 81.3%) and mGSD-CRL (> 20.0vs ≤ 11.7 mm: OR = 2.960, 95% CI = 1.397-6.273, P = 0.005, power = 98.9%; 11.7 < mGSD-CRL ≤ 20.0vs > 20.0 mm: OR = 0.341, 95%CI = 0.172-0.676, P = 0.002, power = 84.8%) were identified as independent risk factors for missed abortion in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Patients with age ≥ 30 years, BMI > 24 kg/m² or mGSD-CRL > 20 mm had increasing risk for missed abortion, who should be more closely monitored and facilitated with necessary interventions at first trimester or even before conception to reduce the occurrence of missed abortion to have better clinical outcomes.

Performance of single serum progesterone in the evaluation of symptomatic first-trimester pregnant patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Pain and bleeding complicate 30% of pregnancies, raising concerns for viability. The objective is to evaluate the diagnostic characteristics of a single serum progesterone level in assessing pregnancy viability among symptomatic patients.

METHODS

We conducted a predefined literature search in MEDLINE, Embase (OVID), CINAHL and Cochrane databases for studies that enrolled patients in first trimester with miscarriage symptoms, measured progesterone and reported pregnancy viability, from inception to July 2020. We extracted data for 2 × 2 tables, progesterone threshold levels and viability. We obtained summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, Diagnostic Odds Ratio (DOR), and predictive values at given prevalence rates.

RESULTS

We identified 54 publications. There was a total of 15,878 patients enrolled, of whom 7864 patients (49.5%) were confirmed to have a viable pregnancy and 8014 patients (50.5%) were confirmed to have a non-viable pregnancy. The cut-off value of progesterone ranged from 3.2 to 25 ng/mL (20.034-79.5 nmol/L). We evaluated the performance of the following progesterone cut-off categories: < 6.3, 6.3-12.6, 12.7-19.9, and 20-25 ng/mL. To detect non-viable pregnancy, progesterone with cut-off < 6.3 ng/mL had sensitivity 73.1%, specificity 99.2% and DOR 322.0 (PPV 0.91, 0.97 and 0.99 at prevalences 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, respectively, indicating higher likelihood of non-viable pregnancy), and cut-off category 20-25 ng/mL had sensitivity 91.3%, specificity 75% and DOR 31.4 (NPV 0.99, 0.96 and 0.89 at the prevalences above indicating higher likelihood of viable pregnancy).

CONCLUSION

A single progesterone level provides a clinically useful prognostic information on pregnancy viability. More than nine out of ten patients with a level < 6.3 ng/mL (< 20.034 nmol/L) will be diagnosed with a non-viable pregnancy, and more than 90% of patients with a level ≥ 20-25 ng/mL (63.6-79.5 nmol/L) will have a viable pregnancy confirmed.

Diagnostic value of a single β-hCG test in predicting reproductive outcomes in women undergoing cleavage embryo transfer: a retrospective analysis from a single center

Purpose

The present study investigated the role of β-hCG in predicting reproductive outcomes and established optimal β-hCG cutoff values in women undergoing cleavage embryo transfer.

Methods

The patients were transferred with fresh or frozen-thawed embryos and had serum β-hCG levels tested on the 14th day post-embryo transfer. Serum β-hCG levels were compared between different groups. Different cutoff values of β-hCG were established and used to divide the patients into different groups. Reproductive outcomes between groups based on β-hCG levels were compared.

Results

Significant discrepancies in general characteristics were observed in the subgroups. The cutoff values of β-hCG for predicting the presence/absence of pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy/clinical pregnancy, presence/absence of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and singleton/twin live birth in the cleavage groups were 89.6, 241.1, 585.9, and 981.1 mIU/L, respectively. Biochemical pregnancy rates and adverse pregnancy outcome rates significantly decreased from the low β-hCG group to the higher β-hCG group in sequence. Significantly higher full-term live birth rates were observed in the highest β-hCG group (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Serum β-hCG levels were strongly associated with reproductive outcomes. However, the interpretation of β-hCG levels must consider the number and quality of embryos and transfer protocols. When β-hCG was tested on a fixed day post-ET, different cutoff values were required for the prediction of early clinical outcomes. The association between β-hCG and obstetric outcomes must be investigated.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12978-022-01455-1.

To investigate the association between β-hCG and reproductive and obstetrical outcomes in women with cleavage ET and to establish different β-hCG cutoff values for the prediction of reproductive outcomes, this study retrospectively included 6909 infertile women who were divided into different groups based on the number and quality of transferred embryos, age, and transfer protocols. The cutoff values of β-hCG for predicting the presence/absence of pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy/clinical pregnancy, presence/absence of adverse pregnancy outcomes, singleton/twin live birth in the cleavage groups were 89.6, 241.1, 585.9, and 981.1 mIU/L, respectively. Biochemical pregnancy rates and adverse pregnancy outcome rates decreased significantly in the higher β-hCG groups. In conclusion, the interpretation of β-hCG levels must consider the number and quality of embryos and transfer protocols. When β-hCG was tested on a fixed day post-ET, different cutoff values were required for the prediction of early clinical outcomes.

Prediction of miscarriage in first trimester by serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin within 9 weeks of gestation

Purpose

To predict miscarriage outcome within 12 weeks of gestational age by evaluating values of serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG) within 9 weeks of gestation.

Methods

One hundred sixty-five women with singleton pregnancies were retrospectively studied. Estradiol, progesterone and β-HCG levels were measured at 5–6 weeks of gestation and the measurements were repeated at 7–9 weeks. According to pregnancy outcome at 12 weeks of gestation, 71 cases were categorized into miscarriage group, and 94 cases into group of normal pregnancy. Each group was further divided into 5–6 and 7–9 weeks of gestation sub-group. Predictive values of estradiol, progesterone and β- HCG levels at 5–6 weeks and 7–9 weeks of gestation were analyzed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression.

Results

Serum levels of estradiol at 7–9 weeks identified miscarriage with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.866 (95% CI 0. 793 ~ 0.938, P = 0.000), diagnostic cutoff value of 576 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.804, and specificity of 0.829 respectively at the optimal threshold, according to Youden index. Progesterone levels at 7–9 weeks were with AUC of 0.766 (95% CI 0. 672 ~ 0.861, P = 0.000), cutoff value of 15.27 ng/ml, sensitivity of 0.921, and specificity of 0.558, respectively; Estradiol at 5–6 weeks were with AUC of 0.709 (95% CI 0. 616 ~ 0.801, P < 0.001), the diagnostic cutoff value of 320 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.800, and specificity of 0.574, respectively.

The performance of the dual markers of estradiol and progesterone analysis (AUC 0.871, CI 0.793–0.950), three-markers analysis (AUC 0.869, CI 0.759–0.980)were slightly better than the single marker at 7-9 weeks. β-HCG or progesterone provide additional utility of estradiol prediction at 5–6 weeks with AUC 0.770 (0.672–0.869) for β-HCG and estradiol, AUC0.768(CI 0.670–0.866) for β-HCG, estradiol and progesterone and AUC 0.739 (CI 0.651–0.827) for progesterone and estradiol.

Conclusions

Low serum levels such as dual of estradiol and progesterone or estradiol alone at 7–9 weeks, β-HCG or progesterone combing estradiol at 5–6 weeks of gestation can be used better to predict miscarriage in first trimester.

Human Chorionic Gonadotropin and Early Embryogenesis: Review

Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) has four major isoforms: classical hCG, hyperglycosylated hCG, free β subunit, and sulphated hCG. Classical hCG is the first molecule synthesized by the embryo. Its RNA is transcribed as early as the eight-cell stage and the blastocyst produces the protein before its implantation. This review synthetizes everything currently known on this multi-effect hormone: hCG levels, angiogenetic activity, immunological actions, and effects on miscarriages and thyroid function.

The Burden of Abortion Restrictions and Conservative Diagnostic Guidelines on Patient-Centered Care for Early Pregnancy Loss

Intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability are common, and guidelines for diagnosing early pregnancy loss must balance the risk of interrupting a viable pregnancy with the anxiety and medical complications resulting from delayed diagnosis. Two cases of likely early pregnancy loss presenting as intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability are described, with stark differences in care availability related to state reproductive health care regulations. Onerous abortion restrictions, medical and societal stigma, and inherent pronatalism in diagnostic criteria interfere with the exercise of clinical judgment and can damage patients' physical or mental health.

First-Trimester Prognosis When an Early Gestational Sac is Seen on Ultrasound Imaging: Logistic Regression Prediction Model

OBJECTIVES

To determine the factors that jointly and independently affect first-trimester outcome of very early intrauterine pregnancies (those whose sonogram shows a gestational sac with no identifiable yolk sac or embryo) and develop a mathematical model and Web-based calculator that computes prognosis based on these factors.

METHODS

Our study population included 590 very early pregnancies scanned between January 1, 2012, and June 30, 2018, with known outcomes (live or spontaneous loss) at 14 weeks. We recorded patient age, mean sac diameter (MSD), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) rise, and presence/absence of: vaginal bleeding, history of infertility, prior miscarriage, and pregnancy via assisted reproductive technology. We assessed the correlation between each of these factors and outcome and performed stepwise logistic regression to determine the subset that independently correlated with outcome.

RESULTS

Patient age, MSD, hCG rise, vaginal bleeding, history of infertility, and assisted reproductive technology pregnancy were significantly correlated with outcome (P < .05, t test for age and MSD, χ² for the others). Stepwise logistic regression identified age, MSD, hCG rise, and vaginal bleeding as the subset of factors that independently predicted outcome. The regression model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.823. We incorporated the regression model into a Web-based calculator (https://tinyurl.com/Prognosis-PD) that predicts the outcome of an early intrauterine pregnancy based on these 4 key variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of very early intrauterine pregnancies is related to several clinical, biochemical, and sonographic factors. The factors that independently correlate with first-trimester outcome are patient age, MSD, hCG rise, and vaginal bleeding. The logistic regression model predicts outcome based on these variables.

Human Chorionic Gonadotrophin: New Pleiotropic Functions for an "Old" Hormone During Pregnancy

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) is the first specific molecule synthesized by the embryo. hCG RNA is transcribed as early as the eight-cell stage, and the blastocyst produces the protein before its implantation. hCG in the uterine microenvironment binds with its cognate receptor, luteinizing hormone/choriogonadotropin receptor (LHCGR), on the endometrial surface. This binding stimulates leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) production and inhibits interleukin-6 (IL-6) production by epithelial cells of the endometrium. These effects ensure essential help in the preparation of the endometrium for initial embryo implantation. hCG also effects angiogenic and immunomodulatory actions as reported in many articles by our laboratories and other ones. By stimulating angiogenesis and vasculogenesis, hCG provides the placenta with an adequate maternal blood supply and optimal embryo nutrition during the invasion of the uterine endometrium. The immunomodulatory properties of hCG are numerous and important for programming maternal immune tolerance toward the embryo. The reported effects of hCG on uterine NK, Treg, and B cells, three major cell populations for the maintenance of pregnancy, demonstrate the role of this embryonic signal as a crucial immune regulator in the course of pregnancy. Human embryo rejection for hCG-related immunological reasons has been studied in different ways, and a sufficient dose of hCG seems to be necessary to maintain maternal tolerance. Different teams have studied the addition of hCG in patients suffering from recurrent miscarriages or implantation failures. hCG could also have a beneficial or a negative impact on autoimmune diseases during pregnancy. In this review, we will discuss the immunological impacts of hCG during pregnancy and if this hormone might be used therapeutically.