Transfers of embodied PM2.5 emissions from and to the North China region based on a multiregional input-output model

North-south regional differential decomposition and spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of China's industrial green total factor productivity

"Green development" has become the way for countries around the world to strengthen industries, and it is an important part of China's high-quality economic development. The key for China to strike a balance between economic growth and environmental management is to optimize green total factor productivity (GTFP). This paper measures the GTFP of industry in 30 provinces of China from 2003 to 2019, based on the perspective of energy and carbon emission constraints. It empirically examines the spatial disequilibrium and dynamic evolution of industrial GTFP in China using Dagum Gini coefficients, Kernel density estimation, and Markov chain analysis. The study finds that, (1) although China's industrial GTFP is not high, it shows an increasing trend. The industrial GTFP in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region. (2) Technical efficiency is the shortcoming of China's industrial GTFP improvement. Technological progress is the main driving force of China's industrial GTFP improvement. (3) The relative and absolute differences in China'' industrial GTFP, technical efficiency, and technological progress have all shown a widening trend. Regional differences between the southern and northern regions are the main source of relative differences in industrial GTFP, technical efficiency, and technological progress. (4) China's industrial GTFP shows a clear "club convergence" phenomenon and the "Matthew effect." However, after the introduction of the spatial factor, the "club convergence" phenomenon and the "Matthew effect" have weakened. The driving effect of industrial GTFP on neighboring provinces is stronger in the south than in the north. This paper enriches the analysis of industrial GTFP and provides an important basis for the coordinated regional development of Chinese industry.

Trade-driven relocation of ground-level SO2 concentrations across Chinese provinces based on satellite observations

The influence of trade on ground-level SO2 concentrations in China was evaluated based on multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis, using the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) SO2 columns and SO2 profiles from an atmospheric chemical and transport model, MOZART-4. The provincial sum of ground-level SO2 concentrations has a good consistency with the provincial SO2 emissions (R = 0.65, p < 0.01). The provincial SO2 concentrations presented strong spatial variations, with a range of 5.1-50.6 μg/m3 and an average of 19.7 μg/m3 across China. The international trade increased the SO2 concentrations in all of the provinces and increased the national population-weighted SO2 (PWM-SO2) concentration by 2.9 μg/m3. Interprovincial trade within China decreased the ambient SO2 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing and the provinces in southeast and central China, but increased SO2 in the remaining provinces of China. In general, interprovincial trade decreased the national PWM-SO2 concentration by 5.3 μg/m3.

Economic environmental imbalance in China - Inter-city air pollutant emission linkage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration

Production fragmentation makes the air pollution policy no longer at the local scale but requires accounting more about embodied emissions cross-region through supply chains. Here, we map the consumption-driven NO_x networks of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) in China using the city-level multi-regional input-output model. The results show that the construction, service, and equipment manufacturing sectors in Beijing and Tianjin indirectly drive more than half of BTH NO_x emissions (54%). Moreover, 75% of NO_x flows in the supply chains are traded from cities with low efficiency (high intensity) to cities with high efficiency (low intensity), which reflects the economic environmental imbalance in BTH. Especially, for the metals smelting and pressing sector and nonmetal mineral products sector, there is a wider gap in emission intensity between production-oriented cities (1.03-4.43 Mt/million yuan) and consumer-oriented cities (0.08-0.45 Mt/million yuan), which leads to additional emissions of air pollutants to increase. At the same time, for the provinces in the south and north China, the role of BTH in the supply chain is different, which leads to an economic environmental imbalance between the north and the south. Synchronous outsourcing of production and technology is the key to solving the economic environmental imbalance. The consumption-oriented high-income cities are suggested to increase the financial and technical support to improve the efficiency of pollution control in production-oriented cities.

Consumption-based PM2.5-related premature mortality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, which has a resource-dependent economy dominated by clusters of heavy industries, has long borne the highest PM_2.5 pollution levels in China, prompting serious concerns about the region's disease burden. Pollution-intensive industries in the BTH region not only meet local consumer demands but also those of other places via the supply chain. In the present study, we combined a multi-region input-output model with adjoint source sensitivity modeling technique at a high resolution (0.25° × 0.3125°) to apportion PM_2.5-related mortality risks in the BTH to consuming areas and sectors. The model predicted that exposure to ambient PM_2.5 caused 0.12 million premature deaths (95% confidence interval: 0.08-0.15) in the BTH region in 2013. The adjoint source sensitivity results showed that only 46% of the total premature deaths were attributable to local consumption. The top contributors of local consumption were rural households and the agricultural sector in Hebei, and service sector in Beijing. Consumption of other domestic regions and international export accounted for 25% of the total premature deaths in the BTH, mainly to support consumption of manufacturing and construction products of these outer regions. Atmospheric transport of pollutants, mainly from the surrounding areas, accounted for the remaining 29% of total deaths in BTH. Our findings underline the consumption-based driven force of BTH's pollution and associated health impacts, which may facilitate the joint control actions among the BTH region and its surrounding areas from a comprehensive perspective.

Road freight emission in China: From supply chain perspective

Freight emissions management has entered the deep-water zone. This study evaluated road freight emissions from supply chain perspective using China's 2007, 2010 and 2012 multiregional input-output table. For the first time, we quantified road freight emission based on sectors in China. Heavy industries, mining, agriculture and light industry contributed 71%,14%, 12% and 3% of total NO_x emissions in 2012 from production perspective. Construction was the largest consumption sector (43%) responsible for road freight emission from consumption perspective. Upstream transport and final product transport emitted 3.04 Tg (80%) and 0.77 Tg (20%) NO_x in 2012. Huge disparities of road freight emissions flows and allocation patterns were found across provinces in China in terms of resource endowments, geographical position and economic development. The road freight emission increased rapidly from 2007 to 2012, and economic growth effect outpaced emission control effect caused by emission standard upgrade and thus dominated the emission growth. The production structure and consumption pattern changes also promoted the emission growth. It is thus important to mitigate freight emissions with different strategies based on a certain sector's freight emissions features from the whole supply chain.

What factors influence PM2.5 emissions in China? An analysis of regional differences using a combined method of data envelopment analysis and logarithmic mean Divisia index

This study uses a combined data envelopment analysis and logarithmic mean Divisia index (DEA-LMDI) method to decompose affecting factors for PM2.5 emissions into effects related to the potential emission intensity (PEI), environmental efficiency and technology, production efficiency and technology, regional economic structure, and national economic growth, and investigates differences in the effects on PM2.5 emissions, considering the diversity among different areas and periods in China. This study provides a new insight in the decomposition method, which can decompose the emissions into new effects compared with the exiting studies. This study reveals that the regional environmental-based technology (EBT) effect is the key curbing factor for PM2.5 emissions, followed by the regional PEI effect. The curbing effect of regional EBT on PM2.5 emissions is strong in East China and weak in Northeast China. The environment-oriented scale efficiency (ESE), environment-oriented management efficiency (EME), production-oriented scale efficiency (PSE), production-oriented management efficiency (PME), and production-based technology (PBT) had relatively small effects on PM2.5 emissions on the whole. The effects differ among different areas and periods in China. The emission reduction potential of these efficiency effects has not been realized. The national economic growth greatly promotes PM2.5 emissions. The regional economic structure effect slightly increases PM2.5 emissions because of the unbalanced development of regional economy. The relative policy suggestions are put forward based on the findings of this study.

Determinants of Oil Footprints Embodied in Sino-US Trade: A Perspective from the Globalizing World

Oil plays an important role in global resource allocation. With the continuous development of the global supply chain, trade has brought a great impact on oil consumption. However, few studies have been focused on the oil consumption embodied in trade, that is, the oil footprints. Therefore, based on the multi-regional input-output model and structural decomposition model, this paper investigates the evolution and driving factors of the oil footprint between the two countries with the largest oil consumption in the world (China and the United States). By measuring the flow of oil footprint in bilateral trade, their trade transactions are analyzed at the national and industry levels. The results show that in Sino-US trade, China is a net exporter of virtual oil and the trade surplus is huge. The United States is the main destination of China’s virtual oil consumption exports. In 2004, China’s embodied oil net exports flowing into the US even exceeded its total net exports. Low value-added, high-consumption manufacturing is the main channel for China’s virtual oil to flow to the United States, which reflects that China is still at the bottom of the value chain. The most important factor in promoting exports’ growth is the scale effect of demand, followed by the input structure effect of intermediate products. The technical effect is an important force to curb the growth of oil footprints. This requires China and the United States to accelerate technological progress and reduce energy consumption intensity. At the same time, China should continue to optimize its trade structure, encourage the export of high-value-added products, and strive to climb the global value chain.

Great Divergence Exists in Chinese Provincial Trade-Related CO2 Emission Accounts

Accurate accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions considering interregional trade are important for developing regional-specific strategies for climate mitigation in countries like China where vast heterogeneity exists among regions. Trade-related provincial CO₂ emission accounts have been reported and analyzed for China using three independently developed multiregional input-output (MRIO) models which have been widely used. Here we show that significant divergence exists in both consumption-based and income-based CO₂ emission accounts for Chinese provinces in 2012 using different MRIO models. For example, the difference of CO₂ emissions for Shandong Province calculated from two MRIO models can reach 208Mt, more than the terrestrial emissions of Argentina, United Arab Emirates, or The Netherlands. Reducing such divergence, however, requires only the agreement among various MRIO models on a small number of critical data elements. Our results demonstrate the need of careful interpretation of previous studies on trade-related provincial GHG emission accounts in China, and prioritize future efforts to harmonize GHG emission accounting within China.

China's coal consumption in a globalizing world: Insights from Multi-Regional Input-Output and structural decomposition analysis

The growth of global carbon emissions is largely driven by coal-burning in China. China has consumed approximately half of global coal; as such, limiting its coal demand is important for curbing carbon emissions in the country and around the world. Developing effective approaches to limit China's coal demand requires comprehensively understanding the trajectory and drivers shaping its coal footprint in the globalized world. Past studies have investigated production-based coal consumption within China's sovereign territory boundary, but have not addressed consumption-based coal consumption and the globalization background. To fill this research gap, this study conducted a multi-regional input-output analysis - structural decomposition analysis to analyze China's coal footprint in a globalized world. The results show a continued rise in the influence of globalization on China's coal consumption, despite the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2008-09 global economic crisis lowering of global trade. The percentage of other countries' coal demand on China's production-based coal footprint increased from 20% in 1995 to nearly 30% in 2011, through a global transfer of virtual coal through trade. Virtual coal refers to the coal consumed to support production activities. Meanwhile, the impact of other countries' coal supply on China's consumption-based coal footprint increased from less than 2% in 1995 to more than 4% in 2011. However, the decomposition results showed that domestic demand was the leading contributor to Chinese production-based and consumption-based coal footprint. This was offset by the domestic coal intensity effect. To cut China's coal, strategies to cap its total coal consumption should be considered in a globalized world. Improving energy intensity is an effective approach for the country; China should be leveraging the globalized world, rather than serving as the world's factory through high coal consumption and exports.

Re-examining the embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports

China is the world's largest exporter and may release lots of air pollutants to produce exported commodities due to taking coal as its main source of energy. Processing exports play a significant role in Chinese exports, yet previous studies of embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports failed to distinguish processing exports from normal exports. This paper investigates the effect of trade heterogeneity on the estimation of embodied emissions by re-examining the embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports based on an extended non-competitive input-output table that distinguishes processing from normal exports. The results show that processing exports generate 22.81% of the value added embodied in gross exports and 16.48% of the emissions embodied in gross exports. The embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports would be overestimated by 12%-22% without accounting for trade heterogeneity. Unequal distributions of export-related air pollutants and value added exist among different sectors. In particular, Manufacturing of Electronics and Communication Equipment sector induces 39.56% of embodied emissions in processing exports, and 41.78% of which are generated by Production and Supply of Electric Power and Steam Hot Water sector. China's restrictions on processing exports should focus not only on the direct emissions generated by each sector but also on the emissions embodied in domestic supply chains.

Affluent countries inflict inequitable mortality and economic loss on Asia via PM2.5 emissions

This research sets out to quantify the mortality and economic loss in individual Asian countries caused by the PM_2.5 emissions induced by the consumption of the world's five highest-consuming countries (US, China, Japan, Germany, UK). In 2010 alone, the economic impact of these five countries' consumption caused a loss of almost 45 billion US dollars due to the premature deaths of more than 1 million people in Asia, including 15 thousand children younger than 5 years old. The percentage ratio of economic loss to value-added driven by consumers via trade differed greatly among the impacted countries. For the US, the highest percentage loss was 4.1% in Laos, followed by 2.0% in Bangladesh, both markedly higher than the figures for the more developed countries, such as 0.21% for Japan and 0.18% for Korea. This reflects the inequitable value chain existing between consumer countries and impacted countries, and implies that developing countries are obtaining value-added in exchange for unintentionally increased health risks, delaying their development and potentially creating a vicious circle that hinders much-needed improvements in areas like poverty reduction and public health. This inequitable situation needs to be redressed through introduction of clean energy and other types of technological assistance to help achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7, 10 and 13. Such as move is essential if premature infant deaths are to be curtailed.

Measurement of air-pollution inequality through a three-perspective accounting model

China is suffering from serious air pollution. Regional air quality varies significantly due to intensive inter-provincial trades, diversified resource endowments and complicated economic structures. This study breaks the limitations of measuring environmental inequality only from a single perspective and establishes a three-perspective atmospheric pollutant equivalents accounting model (or APE accounting model) for air-pollution inequality assessment under environmentally-extend multi-regional input-output framework. From three perspectives of local production (i.e. production-based), final demand (i.e. consumption-based) and primary supply (i.e. income-based), APE emissions, APE transfers and environmental Gini coefficient are investigated to exam emission responsibilities of various impact factors, evaluate the impacts of inter-provincial trades on pollutants transfers, and characterize regional emission inequalities at both provincial and sectoral levels. The results indicate that local emitters are merely parts of contributors to air pollution. Direct emitters like Hebei Province, primary suppliers like Inner Mongolia and final consumers like Shandong Province induce large amounts of air pollutants as embedded within various economic activities. Because of unequal supply-demand levels and complex exchange mechanisms, three-perspective APE emissions are significantly heterogeneous, especially in mining, construction, energy and material-transformation sectors. Particularly, inequality of the mining sector in embodied emissions has the highest environmental Gini coefficient (0.881). This model provides a framework to assess regional environmental inequality and its findings provide scientific bases for the formulation of desired regional air pollution control policies.

Environmental efficiency and equality embodied in China's inter-regional trade

Embodied emissions in trade have been widely studied; however, there is still a lack of studies that explore whether a country is benefitting from its inter-regional trade in terms of pollutant emissions. This study took sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions as an example and employed modified input-output (MIO) model and traditional input-output (IO) model to quantify emissions under no-trade and trade conditions, and further investigated environmental efficiency and equality of inter-regional trade in China in 2010. The results show that inter-regional trade had increased emissions by 28% compared to no-trade emissions, which confirms the environmental inefficiency of inter-regional trade in China. This was largely because regions with better technology and low emission intensities tended to outsource the production of pollution-intensive but low value-added goods to regions with high emission intensities through inter-regional trade. The exchanges of pollution-intensive products in inter-regional trade have led to notable environmental inequities. Eastern regions usually gained the greatest environmental benefits from trade, while central regions (especially Shanxi, Henan, and Hebei) suffered the largest environmental loss induced by trade. Specifically, Guangdong plundered other regions the most (796 G gram (Gg)), while Shanxi was plundered the most by other regions (790 Gg). Polices to differentiate reduction criteria for emission intensity in different regions and adjust trade patterns within China could be recommended in order to achieve trade-related environmental efficiency as well as environmental equality.

Does China become the "pollution heaven" in South-South trade? Evidence from Sino-Russian trade

The South-South trade has witnessed a rapid development over the years, but its impacts on the participating countries remain unknown. Taking Sino-Russian trade as evidence, a multiregional input-output model is adopted and three types of non-carbon pollutant are chosen to investigate whether China has become the "pollution heaven" in South-South trade. After investigating the industry structure distribution and trade flows of embodied pollution during 2000-2014, the driving factors of the changes in embodied pollutant are further explored by Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The results showed that China has gradually lost the win-win situation of trade surplus and pollution reduction. Since the year 2007, China has totally become a net exporter of embodied pollutions, and has become to bear the environmental costs in the trade with Russia. The expansion of exports to Russia is the main cause of increasing embodied pollutant emission in China, and the progress of emissions reduction technology effect is not sufficient to offset the increase in embodied pollutant emissions. From the sectoral aspect, we find that the exports of textiles, leather, chemical, machinery and electronics are the main causes of pollution outflows. Meanwhile, imports of mineral, transport, metals, coke, petroleum and nuclear fuel to a certain extent eased the pressure of pollution reduction in China.

Environmental responsibility for sulfur dioxide emissions and associated biodiversity loss across Chinese provinces

Recent years have witnessed a growing volume in Chinese interregional trade, along with the increasing disparities in environmental pressures. This has prompted an increased attention on where the responsibilities for environmental impacts should be placed. In this paper, we quantify the environmental responsibility of SO₂ emissions and biodiversity impacts due to terrestrial acidification at the provincial level for the first time. We examine the environmental responsibility from the perspectives of production, consumption, and income generation by employing a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model for 2007, 2010, and 2012. The results indicate that ∼40% of SO₂ emissions were driven by the consumption in provinces other than where the emissions discharged. In particular, those developed provinces were net importers of SO₂ emissions and mainly outsourced their emissions to nearby developing provinces. Over the period of analysis, environmental inequality among 30 provinces was larger than GDP inequality. Furthermore, environmental inequality continued to increase while GDP inequality decreased over the time period. The results of a shared income- and consumption-based responsibility approach suggest that the environmental responsibility of SO₂ emissions and biodiversity impacts for developed provinces can reach up to ∼4- to 93-fold the environmental pressure occurred within those provinces. This indicates that under these accounting principles the developed northern provinces in China would bear a much larger share of the environmental responsibility.

Ecological network analysis for an industrial solid waste metabolism system

Faced with an increasing amount of industrial solid waste (ISW) in the process of rapid industrialization, it is indispensable to carry out ISW metabolism study to realize source and waste reduction. In this study, a new composite waste input-output (WIO) model is developed to examine ISW production and production relationships among different sectors. In particular, the extended methods of network control analysis and network utility analysis are used in the ecological network analysis under two ISW scenarios (i.e. common industrial solid waste (CISW) and hazardous waste (HW) scenarios). Furthermore, comprehensive utilization analysis is first developed to evaluate the ISW utilization level and to guide the planning of sectors with large proportion of ISW production. A case study of Guangdong, China shows that indirect flow analysis can be used to understand the internal ISW metabolism structure. The mining sectors produce a large amount of direct ISW and perform a low level of comprehensive utilization, but they have mutualism relationships with other sectors. The energy transformation (EH) sector in the CISW system has high direct generation intensity and plays as a main controller. The situation of paper manufacturing (MP) sector in HW system is similar to that of EH. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will provide scientific foundations for these sectors to formulate future ISW reduction policies.

Water Footprint and Virtual Water Accounting for China Using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model

Water footprint (WF) is a measure of the actual appropriation of water resources. WF accounting can provide a scientific basis for the managements of water resources. In this study, a multi-regional input-output model is employed to measure the quantity of blue WF (WF) and inter-provincial virtual water (VW) flows in China for the years of 2007 and 2010. The results show that: (1) China’s total WF increased from 205.42 billion m3 in 2007 to 229.34 billion m3 in 2010. Approximately 42% of the WF was attributed to VW embodied in inter-provincial trade. Xinjiang is the largest province of VW export, whereas Shanghai had the largest net VW inflows. (2) From 2007 to 2010, the share of the agricultural sector in the entire VW trade declined, but was still as high as 82.78%, followed by the industrial sector. (3) The north-to-south and south-to-south patterns were witnessed in the domestic VW flows. The provincial WF variations are found to be affected by the per capital GDP, total water resources, per capita water resources, and urban population. (4) By linking VW with an integrated WAVE+ (water accounting and vulnerability evaluation) factor, it was found that virtual scarce water (VSW) was mainly exported by the provinces in northern China. At the national level, the amounts of VSW inflows were consistently greater than those of VSW outflows for both years, 2007 and 2010, implying an increased pressure on the provinces with water deprivation issues. Overall, these results can provide a basis for refining the spatiotemporal allocation of water resources and mitigating the conflict between water supply and demand in China.

Outsourcing natural resource requirements within China

Consumption demands are final drivers for the extraction and allocation of natural resources. This paper investigates demand-driven natural resource requirements and spatial outsourcing within China in 2012 by using the latest multi-regional input-output model. Exergy is adopted as a common metric for natural resources input. The total domestic resource exergy requirements amounted to 125.5 EJ, of which the eastern area contributed the largest share of 44.5%, followed by the western area (23.9%), the central area (23.0%) and the northeastern area (8.6%). Investment was the leading final demand category, accounting for 52.9% (66.4 EJ) of national total embodied resource use (ERU). The total trade volumes of embodied resource were equivalent to 69.6% of the total direct resource input (DRI), mostly transferred from the central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Xinjiang to the eastern regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shanghai. The northeastern and eastern areas had physical net imports of 1213.5 PJ and 38452.6 PJ, while the central and western inland areas had physical net exports of 6364.5 PJ and 33301.5 PJ, respectively. Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong had prominent ERUs which respectively were 101.6, 12.6, 11.7, 8.4 and 4.3 times of their DRIs. The ERUs of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and Guizhou were equal to only 17.6%, 25.3%, 27.9%, 46.0% and 50.2% of their DRIs, respectively. Regional uneven development resulted in imbalanced resource requirements across China. The findings can provide a deep understanding of China's resource-driven economic development mode, and contribute to reducing regional resource footprints and their environment outcomes under the "new normal economy".

The temporal variation of SO2 emissions embodied in Chinese supply chains, 2002-2012

Whilst attention is increasingly being focused on embodied pollutant emissions along supply chains in China, relatively little attention has been paid to dynamic changes in this process. This study utilized environmental extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) and structural path analysis (SPA) to investigate the dynamic variation of the SO₂ emissions embodied in 28 economic sectors in Chinese supply chains during 2002-2012. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: (1) The dominant SO₂ emission sectors differed under production and consumption perspectives. Electricity and heat production dominated SO₂ emissions from the point of view of production, while construction contributed most from the consumption perspective. (2) The embodied SO₂ emissions tended to change from the path (staring from consumption side to production side): "Services→Services→Power" in 2002 to the path: "Construction and Manufacturing→Metal and Nonmetal→Power" in 2012. (3) Metal-driven emissions raised dramatically from 15% in 2002 to 22% in 2012, due to increasing demand for metal products in construction and manufacturing activities. (4) Power generation was found to result in the greatest volume of production-based emissions, a burden it tended to transfer to upstream sectors in 2012. Controlling construction activities and cutting down end-of-pipe discharges in the process of power generation represent the most radical interventions in reducing Chinese SO₂ emissions. This study shed light on changes in SO₂ emissions in the supply chain, providing a range of policy implications from both production and consumption perspectives.